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 Daily
Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up
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Baltic Dry Index - plus 7 to 2,722.
(chart)
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Dollar graph in lower right corner of this page -
(chart of dollar index)
(live
java chart)
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Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks, Euro Fall as G-7 Fails
to End Concern Over Greece, Budgets // Sumitomo Mitsui Third-Quarter Profit
Rises as Bad Loans, Stock Losses Fall // India's Economic Growth May Quicken
for First Time Since 2007, Agency Says // Toyota Said to Recall Prius Cars
to Fix Brake Flaw Wozniak Calls `Scary' // Lagarde, Schaeuble Say EU Will
Ensure Greece Delivers Budget Deficit Cuts // Gruebel Second Turnaround Means
Battered UBS Stock May Trump Credit Suisse // Swiss January Retail
Sales Rise, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Declines // G-7 Governments Risk
`Muddled Middle' With Plan to Spend Now, Save Later // Portugal, Spain Lead
Jump in Sovereign Debt Risk as Deficit Concern Grows // Volkswagen's
Audi Luxury Unit Predicts `Strong' Quarter After January Gain // European
Stocks Advance; SAB, Xstrata Lead Gains Among Foodmakers, Miners //
Geithner Says U.S. Will `Never' Lose Aaa Debt Rating, Deficit Will Shrink
// Weak Dollar Illusory as Correlated Trading Shows Gains Since Bretton Woods
// Greenspan Sees `Slow' Recovery, Would Be `Very Concerned' If Stocks Drop
// Stocks in U.S. Fluctuate as Analyst Upgrades Offset European Debt Concerns
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The Euro is trading over 1/10 of 1% higher against the US Dollar at the moment,
but neither side appears to have more than fleeting momentum. NYMEX crude
futures are up 1.15% and at $72/barrel. Gold is up by 1/10 of 1% and silver
is lower by about the same. Base metals ended the session higher for the
most part, with only tin lagging. Indicator charts show nickel rose early,
fell in early afternoon, then started recovering late in the session. For
the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.84/lb
. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME approved warehouses rose slightly over the weekend, and now
sit just shy of the 166,500 tonne level. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel
slump late last week
(chart here). The Baltic Dry Index rose 7 points to 2,722
implying its second day of gains, may not last much longer. US markets appear
to be hesitant to make a major directional move today, as the bears and bulls
fight over dominance. We read a lot of articles daily, in our research
for this site, but have our favorites that we watch closely. Two of these
had less than positive news today and we thought it was worth mentioning,
since these two writers have typically been bullish lately. Na Liu in his
weekly China Update for Scotia , wrote "As we wrote in the Macro section,
the 21st Century Business Herald, a respected local newspaper, reported on
Wednesday that Chinese banking authorities have asked commercial banks to
carefully review and strictly control loans to the steel industry and steel
traders, because of the perceived high inventory risk and overcapacity concerns.
The paper wrote that all commercial banks in Sichuan province had received
an internal document from the Sichuan bureau of the China Banking Regulatory
Commission. The document, dated January 25, 2010, said that all financial
institutions should review outstanding loans to the steel industry and control
risks accordingly. The risk is high in the steel industry because “steel
mills and steel traders, with the support of bank credit, are betting on
higher steel prices in 2010 as a group by stockpiling. The steel inventory
level in the country has swelled and risk has accumulated.” The document
said that at the end of 2009, the total steel inventory in China was 70
million-80 million tonnes, up by about 20 million-30 million tonnes on a
YOY basis. As total steel output in 2010 is likely to top 700 million tonnes,
the high inventory and strong output will put pressure on steel prices, according
to the document. The document also said that if steel prices go lower, banks
will face “severe financial risks.” A writer who goes by the handle
Robry, and who has gained a loyal following with his natural gas fuel reports,
wrote in his weekly analysis "Overall (at least short-term), the gas-flows
are starting to exhibit a slowing, stalling, meandering look... (no doubt
reflecting at least in part the malaise in the markets, the malaise in
government, and the malaise in employment), leaving one to wonder what
comes next. As recoveries (and recessions) feed upon themselves, a
loss of momentum opens the door to unpredictability... where a single news
story... a single political gaff... a single down-day in the markets... even
a single meteorological event (such as a crippling snowstorm) can
impact consumers in such a way as to get a ball rolling that will quickly
become difficult to stop. The danger is not so much on the Industrial/Business
side of the economy (though businesses will and do react, compounding
problems) but on the consumption side of the economy... where consumers
(at a single bad news story) will cut back spending... "just in case".
In my own opinion... every recession starts out by "just in case"."
Reports
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
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(Dow Jones) Russia exported 244,700 metric tons of nickel in 2009, 3.3% less
than in 2008, the federal customs service said Monday.
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Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig Explains His Dissenting Vote -
more
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Living on Nothing but Food Stamps -
more
(reader submitted, aged article but worth noting)
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Employment Chart Roundup -
more
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Euro Your Boat, I’ll Sail the Dollar -
more
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Bank Securitization Woes Only Beginning -
more
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Despite Carping, Dollar Is Still King -
more
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My Sunday media nightmare -
more
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America Is Not Yet Lost -
more
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No Double-Dip Slump but Recovery Slow: Geithner -
more
 Metals prices heading
for the roof - Speakers at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town this week seemed
as one in warning of a near-term supply-demand squeeze and some solid price
increases for a swathe of metals. -
more
 Jilted Xstrata
Going It Alone, For The Moment At least - Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata is done
being told to take a hike. Toward the end of 2008 the world’s third-biggest
platinum miner, Lonmin, resisted its hostile takeover. And last year Anglo
American spurned merger talks with its would-be partner. -
more
Morning
Briefing (8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
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Indicators at 7:20 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.03/lb
, with other base metals
mostly higher. The Euro is trading slightly higher against the US Dollar
this morning, but its losing ground at the moment. NYMEX crude futures are
up 2/3 of 1% and over $71.50/barrel. Gold is down less than 1/10 of
1% and silver is off more than 1/2 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian
markets ended slightly lower, with China closing the same. European markets
are lower after European finance chiefs failed to ease concern over deficits
in Greece, Portugal and Spain. US futures are slightly higher this morning,
implying Wall Street may take a stab at a bullish day. Nickel inventories
rose slightly over the weekend, and the BDI rose 7 points.
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Bloomberg morning base metal news -
more
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Reuters morning report
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more
Reports
Commodity/Economic Comments
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Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Where to from here? After the
recent steep declines and RSI readings that are all in the 20’s for
most metals, we suspect the complex is due for a modest technical bounce.
In fact, we could very well be carving out trading ranges in a number of
markets, with the top end of the range probably defined for the next several
months, and possibly for the year as a whole if the budding global economic
recovery disappoints. The bottom end of the range is still “a
work-in-progress”, although some of the metals seem to be getting to
quite attractive at current levels. These include tin and lead, whose
fundamentals remain quite constructive going into 2010. The ones that still
look most problematic to us are copper and aluminum, with the latter potentially
seeing more weakness if some of the locked-up material on the LME starts
getting released onto the market. .... Nickel is at $17,125, up $75,
and still very range-bound. Friday’s close below $18,000 support suggests
further downside erosion, possibly to $16,500. (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
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(MB) Jinchuan cuts nickel prices 4%
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Wealth Managers See Bright Future In California -
more
 Aust nickel
miner Western Areas expects turnaround in H1 - Australian nickel producer
Western Areas NL is tipping a turnaround in fortunes in its first half, after
making a loss in the corresponding period a year earlier. -
more
 Xstrata sees
renewed commodities boom - Anglo-Swiss mining group Xstrata on Monday reported
a 41 per cent drop in its annual profit in 2009 and pinned its hopes on a
renewed boom in commodities demand in China and other emerging economies.
-
more
 Sojitz Plans to
Double Molybdenum Sales as Steel Demand Grows - Sojitz Corp., Japan’s
largest molybdenum trader, expects to double its sales in the next three
years on increased demand from steelmakers, an executive said. -
more
BHP insists
it will hold on to its nickel assets - The rumour that BHP Billiton is looking
to offload its remaining nickel assets for upwards of $US3 billion just won't
go away. -
more
Global iron and steel
production to reach a record high in 2010 - MEPS forecasts world steel output
at 1350 million tonnes in 2010. -
more
Sudbury/Voisey's Bay Nickel Strike Coverage
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About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
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Sudbury
Star
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Vale/Inco
offer // Vale/Inco Company
Site
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Union
Strike Site //
USW Local
6500
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Sudbury
TV //
Sudbury
Northern Life Videos
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Vale Inco strike: the sounds of silence - Someone said the other day the
strike at Vale Inco might go for another two years. -
more
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Vale sending nickel off to Welsh refinery - The first shipment of nickel
concentrate to be processed into matte at Copper Cliff Smelter Complex since
a strike by Steelworkers began seven months ago is on its way to Vale Inco's
refinery in Clydach, Wales. -
more
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Sides grow further apart; Vale Inco says it will resume full production,
whether the strike ends or not - Vale Inco is aiming for full production,
with or without its 3,200 production and maintenance workers. -
more
Iron Ore News // Talks / Spy Scandal
Coverage
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
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London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
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Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here
(chart)
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Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here
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