Updated twice daily before 8:00 am CST and by 1 pm CST

• Indicators at 8:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.23/lb lower. Shipments of nickel are still arriving into European warehouses, but outbound numbers were larger than inbound over night. Cancelled warrants is running +5% for the second day, implying a potential pick-up in interest by buyers. Technicals indicate nickel prices could be in serious trouble, having met little reluctance to break below the $21,500/tonne support level earlier in the week. Ed from MF Global has yet to establish a new support line, but Sucden has strong support at $20,501/tonne ($9.30/lb). According to indicator charts, traders are testing that new level today. We will try to update the closing price for today, sometime tomorrow. Hosting a big shindig today, so we will be a little busy. Happy Fourth to our American readers, and a safe and restful weekend to our worldwide readers.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Forbes - more
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 71 to 8854. (chart)

  Reports

• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "There will be no metals commentary on Monday, July 7th; we wish all our readers a very pleasant weekend....We are seeing more selling today. With the Euro again weaker, and now trading below 1.57, there are sizable declines in base metal prices, and unlike the mixed sessions we saw for most of this week, we are down across the board this time. The holiday in the US today should thin out trading conditions, and perhaps exaggerate the degree of the selling today, so we will need to wait until next week for the markets to enjoy more liquidity. ... We are at $20,750 on nickel, down $100, and nickel is starting to emulate the very negative chart patterns we see on both lead and zinc. We are looking for an eventual test of $17,000 on nickel based on the charts alone. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Moody's Economy.com said in a report on trends in the global economy that rising prices of commodities have created a shift in terms of trade in developed and emerging countries, that some governments are slashing subsidies and others tightening interest rates to contain inflation and after slowing through 2008, the global economy will see a tepid recovery in 2009. - more

  Terra Nostra Resources Corporation, a majority owner of two joint venture companies in the copper and stainless steel industries in China, announced that based upon recent industry analysis, it anticipates sustained strong domestic demand for stainless steel in China. - more

  BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc has matched takeover target Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc with a near doubling in contract iron ore prices, ending months of talks and speculation it may get more. - more

• Baosteel Group, China's largest steelmaker that led domestic steel mills in the annually contracted benchmark iron ore price negotiations, announced July 4 that it settled on price hikes between 79.88 percent and 96.5 percent with Australian miner BHP Billiton. - more

  New Caledonia’s Goro Nickel company has seen the departure of its general manager, Phil du Toit, a year after he replaced Ron Renton.- more

  Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 30th June 2008 = Steeply Risen Prices Of Chinese Ferro-Alloys Have Temporarily Calmed Down - more

  Fujian Desheng Nickel Products Co., Ltd. recently got 800 million yuan (US$116.8 million) credit line from Fujian Branch of the Bank of China for building China's largest nickel alloy production base. - more

  Continuing its crackdown on the South African steel industry and investigating alleged price-fixing and exclusive dealing, the Competition Commission has raided the premises of Cape Town Iron and Steel Works, Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation, and the premises of the South African Iron and Steel Institute (Saisi), in Pretoria. - more

  Leading Economic Indicators Warn of China Downturn - "Looking to the future in 2007, China’s central government set out the “two prevents” principle: prevent the economy from overheating and inflation from growing. Since then inflation has risen over the 8% mark, though it fell back below that a bit in May. But now Beijing is worried about a possible economic downturn and is hesitant about maintaining a tight credit policy to curb inflation." - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• Base Metal Prices-Mumbai-Jul 3 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 214 to 8925. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• The dollar gained after the U.S. payroll data hinted the job market was not as bad as many had feared, while the European Central Bank's president sounded less aggressive about future rate hikes. Metals were all trading in the red, with nickel no exception. Dow Jones reports three months nickel ended the day at $9.46/lb   
• MSN News - more
• Tomorrow is Independence Day in the US, so our next scheduled update will be next Monday. If we can sneak one in tomorrow, we will do our best.

  AK Steel said Thursday that it has advised its customers that a $905 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for electrical steel products shipped in August 2008. - more

  Kazakh mining group ENRC is pleased with recent Q3 price increases in ferrochrome, its most important product, and is surprised at the recent tumble in its shares, its chief financial officer said on Thursday. - more

  On July 1, the Department of Commerce (Commerce) announced its affirmative preliminary determination in the countervailing duty (CVD) investigation on imports of circular welded austenitic stainless pressure pipe (stainless pressure pipe) from the People’s Republic of China (China). Stainless pressure pipe is a commodity product generally used as a conduit for liquids or gasses. - more

  The gold, silver and bronze medals that will hang around the necks of athletes at next month's Olympics were formally handed over Thursday to the organizers of the Beijing Games. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $ no change . Indicators show cash is selling lower, but three month is quiet. More inventory has arrived into Europe, with totals figure jumping back over the 47,000 tonne mark. ECB hikes rates 1/4 of 1% this morning as expected, so dollar traders will be looking to US reports released today to get direction.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Forbes - more

  Reports

• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - here
• S & P Commodity Perspective June 2008 - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - We are at $21,150 on nickel, unchanged; we are looking for another close below $21,500 today before nickel could potentially start another leg lower. There is not much on the charts below $21,500 until the $17,000 mark. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Yieh reports China's largest stainless steel producer, Taiyuan Iron & Steel (Tisco) will hold domestic list prices for 300 and 400 series stainless prices steady for July.
• AK Steel publishes June 2008 averages - Chrome - $2.445/lb, Molybdenum - $33.35/lb, Nickel - $10.2281/lb, Iron - $775.00/GT

  Steel and most base metal prices in China will be supported by domestic demand over the next 12 months, weathering lower offtake from developed nations, particularly the US whose housing sector is still in the doldrums, analysts said. - more

  French miner Eramet said on Thursday that it estimates nickel ore stocks amounting to 8.5 million tonnes could be found in warehouses in Chinese ports because of poor profit margins to produce the metal. - more

  Indonesia plans to renegotiate existing mining contracts to seek more revenue for the country, the country's energy minister said on Thursday, a move analysts said would hurt investment in the mining sector. - more

• Rio Tinto Group may have to share its nickel concession on Sulawesi island with companies awarded rival mining licenses over the same area, Bisnis Indonesia reported, citing Mangantar Marpaung, a director at the mining ministry. - more

  Nommé the year passé , Phil of the Roof yields his armchair of director gé né ral with Michel Sylvestre, before responsible for a Canadian mine. This change “ traditional ” according to Goro Nickel, mê causes very; me some questions. - poorly translated version here   original version here

  Nornick Shareholders Prefer the Devil They Know - more

• The four years of Vladimir Putin's presidency were very favorable for the Russian metallurgy industry. Growth began in earnest in 2001, when a surge of investments was recorded. - more

  International Iron and Steel Institute, in a recent report, has unveiled the ranking of top 80 steel producing companies in the world with comparison to their ranking and output in 2006. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• Base Metal Prices-Mumbai-Jul 3 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

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All prices shown on this page are indications only. "A Guide To LME Trading"...pdf here "The ABCs of a Metals Exchange" ...pdf here (Molybdenum prices are for molybdenum oxide, an ingredient and major price factor in 316 stainless) (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated daily before 8 am CST and before 1 pm CST weekdays - Disclaimer Candlestick Pattern Dictionary here / Intro to Candlesticks here Original content and opinions copyright www.estainlesssteel.com. Note - For real time and official LME prices, LME requires a user subscribe to an authorized LME vendor.