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 Daily
Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up
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Baltic Dry Index - minus 4 to 4,074.
(chart)
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Dollar graph in lower right corner of this page -
(chart of dollar index)
(live
java chart)
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Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Real Estate Sales Slump in Shanghai,
Beijing on Government's Curbs // Nomura Triples Pay to Top Executives After
Bouncing Back From Record Loss // Russian IPOs Fail to Lure China's
Skeptics as Deripaska Seeks More Sales // Asia Stocks Drop as China Manufacturing
Growth Slows; Euro, Ringgit Weaken // BP Drops Most Since 1992 After Abandoning
Attempt to Plug Leaking Oil Well // Euro Weakens Against Dollar on Speculation
Crisis Hurting Region's Economy // Prudential Fails in Bid to Reduce Price
of AIA Takeover, Jeopardizing Deal // German Unemployment Drops Faster Than
Forecast as Exports Bolster Recovery // Most European Stocks Decline on Slowing
Manufacturing, BP Oil-Leak Failure // Bond Selloff Yields `Gems' for Tepper
as T. Rowe Buys Junk: Credit Markets // Commodities' Biggest Collapse Since
Lehman Fell Signals Bear Market Ahead // Caterpillar Buys EMD for $820 Million
From Berkshire Partners, Greenbriar // Manufacturing in U.S. Expands Faster
Than Forecast as Export Orders Climb // U.S. Stocks Fluctuate as Economic
Reports Offset Slump in Energy Producers
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At the moment, the Euro is trading less than 1/4 of 1% lower against the
US Dollar. NYMEX crude is recovering from earlier losses and is now only
down a little over 1/2 of 1%. Gold is nearly 3/4 of 1% higher while silver
is lower by nearly 1/2 of 1%. Base metals all ended lower, but most off earlier
session lows. Indicator charts show nickel had a down day, falling, stabilizing
, slightly gaining, then collapsing late. Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended the day at $9.28/lb
, its lowest
close since February 25th. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses
slipped slightly over the weekend, and now rest just under the 138,400 tonne
level. Sucden's day old nickel chart shows nickel trading thru last week
(chart here). Cancelled warrants rose over 4%. Nickel
looked unimpressive today, for a third straight day, as the gain in the Euro
did not appear to help nickel at all. After making two strong runs last week,
that did not hold, nickel bulls seem to have lost their fight momentarily.
Our unofficial estimates put cash nickel at $9.98/lb average last month,
$.60/lb lower than April's average. This would be the first time since February
cash nickel has averaged below the $10/lb level. Allegheny has announced
July stainless steel surcharges
here. 304 stainless
steel surcharges show as falling $.19/lb from June to July. AK Steel has
yet to announce. We have updated our monthly world PMI tracker
here.
Reports
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
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No Quick Fix for Copper -
more
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Fed Officials Upbeat On U.S. Recovery -
more
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The ‘Financialization’ of Commodities -
more
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Census Hiring Set to Go Supernova -
more
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Walk Aways, NYT Version -
more
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Chinese Monetary Official: Housing Risk Greater Than in US, UK Pre-Crisis
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more
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Despite U.S. deficit concerns, investors still pour money into Treasury bonds
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more
 Voestalpine warns
upswing may be short-lived - Austrian steelmaker voestalpine warned robust
demand in the next few months could be short-lived if China's uptrend proves
unsustainable and European debt woes cut short its recovery. -
more
 PNG law to shield
resource giants from litigation - The Papua New Guinea parliament has passed
legislation that shelters resource projects from all litigation over the
destruction of the environment, labour abuse or landowner exploitation. -
more
 Russia mulls revising
metals duties – Minister - Russia's economy ministry is looking into
revising some base metals export tariffs, but no dates for any changes have
been discussed, Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina said on Tuesday. -
more
Morning
Briefing (8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
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Indicators at 7:20 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.34/lb
lower, with all base
metals starting the new month trading in the red. The Euro is trading over
1.1% lower against the US Dollar at the moment adding pressure to commodity
trading. NYMEX crude futures are down 2.4% and just over $72/barrel. Gold
is up nearly 1% and silver is down over 1/2 of 1%. In overnight trading,
Asian marekts ended lower, with China off 1%. European markets are trading
lower this morning, and US futures show Wall Street could open in a bad mood.
Nickel inventories fell slightly over the weekend.
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Bloomberg morning base metal news -
more
Reports
Commodity/Economic Comments
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Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Copper prices retraced on Friday,
unable to bust through key $7000 resistance and selling off on the back of
another sloppy session in the US equity markets. Stocks lost ground shortly
after Fitch downgraded Spain's credit rating by one notch, saying that the
country's economic recovery will be "more muted" than government forecasts
due to recently announced austerity measures. On the macro side, US numbers
out Friday were not that inspiring either, with consumer spending turning
unexpectedly flat in April even though real disposable income showed it biggest
increase in nearly a year. In addition, the Institute for Supply
Management-Chicago said its index of Midwest business activity fell in May
vs. the month prior, and also came in slightly lower than forecast. Finally,
although the latest US consumer sentiment readings were up in May from April
levels, they edged out forecasts by only a slight amount, and did not deliver
a significant upside surprise. We are seeing more selling this morning, but
the pace is much stronger than what we saw on Friday, as a barrage of bearish
events are hitting the markets. To start, the Euro has plunged to a fresh
low, hitting $1.2111, and now within easy reach of the key $1.20 level. Investors
were unnerved by a report out of Europe yesterday showing an index of executive
and consumer sentiment falling to 98.4 from 100.6 in April, well below the
unchanged reading forecast. In addition, the ECB said in a bi-annual survey
(also out yesterday) that euro area banks might see another 90 billion Euros
in net write-downs this year. (This figure strikes us as relatively light,
as we have come across other estimates that are much larger than that). However,
perhaps the most important reason behind today’s sharp sell-off is news
out of China that the country’s May manufacturing output expanded at
a slower pace than estimated. A purchasing managers’ index fell to 53.9
from 55.7 in April, less than the median 54.5 estimate, while a separate
index released by HSBC and Markit Economics dipped to 52.7, its lowest level
in a year. Although the size of the first miss is not that great, and both
indices are still in the positive territory given that their readings are
well above 50, the decelerating trend is clearly casting a distinct bearish
shadow on base metals, many of which were being driven higher solely on the
notion that Chinese buying will grow unabated. ... We are $20,640 on
nickel, down $710, with prices perched on key support here (see blue line)
and a level that held up each time over the last few weeks. A decisive break
below $20,500 could set up a quick test of $19,500, nickel’s last bastion
of support, and one that lies along a key upchannel (marked in
red) (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
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(Dow Jones) Seasonal lows in Chinese and European base metal demand in the
third quarter could cool demand and prices further, says SEB Commodity Research.
"In the medium term, we would expect more muted growth in European demand
[for base metals] due to reduced growth and austerity measures. The crisis
also threatens Chinese demand for metals as metal intensive exports to Europe
may be affected," SEB says.
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(Yieh) Affected by the plummeting nickel price, Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco)
announced to cut the stainless steel domestic price and exported price by
NT$1,000-4,500/ton and US$80-150/ton for June, respectively.
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The American Trucking Associations' advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire
Truck Tonnage Index increased for the sixth time in the last seven months,
gaining another 0.9 percent in April. This followed a 0.4 percent increase
in March. The latest improvement put the SA index at 110.2 (2000=100), which
is the highest level since September 2008. Over the last seven months, the
tonnage index grew a total of 6.5 percent.
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(AP) Papua New Guinea's parliament has passed laws that will outlaw third
party lawsuits against resource projects in Papua New Guinea. The amendments
to the Environment Bill, which was passed 73-0, meant that the restraining
order preventing the Ramu nickel cobalt (Ramu NiCo) mine project in Madang
from operating would be lifted and operations to resume.
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(SSI) The International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) has elected two new
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members during its fourteenth Annual Conference (ISSF-14) in Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil. ISSF has now 72 members in 27 countries. The new company members
are the United Stainless Steel Company (USCO) from Bahrein and Villares Metals
from Brazil.
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China's May manufacturing expands at slower pace -
more
 China taps commodities
stockpile in bearish signal - China appears to be eating into some of its
commodities reserves, a potentially worrying near-term trend for producers
and investors, analysts said. -
more
Global Stainless
Steel Cycle Exemplifies China's Rise to Metal Dominance -
pdf report here
 Palawan nickel
mine dispute nears ‘resolution’ - A bitter dispute between two
firms over the ownership of several lucrative nickel mines in Palawan is
nearing a resolution, with production and shipment of the commodity set to
begin in the coming months, according to the head of Oriental Peninsula Resources
Group. -
more
3 mining giants
to increase iron ore prices by 30% - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and CVRD, the
three mining giants, plan to increase the prices of the raw materials for
making steel, including iron ore and coking coal, according to overseas media
groups. -
more
Sudbury/Voisey's Bay Nickel Strike Coverage
 Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
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London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
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Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here
(chart)
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Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here
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