Nickel PricesStainless Steel News

Monday, February 8

  Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up
  • Baltic Dry Index - plus 7 to 2,722. (chart)
  • Dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (live java chart)
  • Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks, Euro Fall as G-7 Fails to End Concern Over Greece, Budgets // Sumitomo Mitsui Third-Quarter Profit Rises as Bad Loans, Stock Losses Fall // India's Economic Growth May Quicken for First Time Since 2007, Agency Says // Toyota Said to Recall Prius Cars to Fix Brake Flaw Wozniak Calls `Scary' // Lagarde, Schaeuble Say EU Will Ensure Greece Delivers Budget Deficit Cuts // Gruebel Second Turnaround Means Battered UBS Stock May Trump Credit Suisse  // Swiss January Retail Sales Rise, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Declines // G-7 Governments Risk `Muddled Middle' With Plan to Spend Now, Save Later // Portugal, Spain Lead Jump in Sovereign Debt Risk as Deficit Concern Grows  // Volkswagen's Audi Luxury Unit Predicts `Strong' Quarter After January Gain // European Stocks Advance; SAB, Xstrata Lead Gains Among Foodmakers, Miners  // Geithner Says U.S. Will `Never' Lose Aaa Debt Rating, Deficit Will Shrink // Weak Dollar Illusory as Correlated Trading Shows Gains Since Bretton Woods // Greenspan Sees `Slow' Recovery, Would Be `Very Concerned' If Stocks Drop // Stocks in U.S. Fluctuate as Analyst Upgrades Offset European Debt Concerns
  • The Euro is trading over 1/10 of 1% higher against the US Dollar at the moment, but neither side appears to have more than fleeting momentum. NYMEX crude futures are up 1.15% and at $72/barrel. Gold is up by 1/10 of 1% and silver is lower by about the same. Base metals ended the session higher for the most part, with only tin lagging. Indicator charts show nickel rose early, fell in early afternoon, then started recovering late in the session. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $7.84/lb . Inventories of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses rose slightly over the weekend, and now sit just shy of the 166,500 tonne level. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel slump late last week (chart here). The Baltic Dry Index rose 7 points to 2,722 implying its second day of gains, may not last much longer. US markets appear to be hesitant to make a major directional move today, as the bears and bulls fight over dominance. We read a lot of articles daily, in our research for this site, but have our favorites that we watch closely. Two of these had less than positive news today and we thought it was worth mentioning, since these two writers have typically been bullish lately. Na Liu in his weekly China Update for Scotia , wrote "As we wrote in the Macro section, the 21st Century Business Herald, a respected local newspaper, reported on Wednesday that Chinese banking authorities have asked commercial banks to carefully review and strictly control loans to the steel industry and steel traders, because of the perceived high inventory risk and overcapacity concerns. The paper wrote that all commercial banks in Sichuan province had received an internal document from the Sichuan bureau of the China Banking Regulatory Commission. The document, dated January 25, 2010, said that all financial institutions should review outstanding loans to the steel industry and control risks accordingly. The risk is high in the steel industry because “steel mills and steel traders, with the support of bank credit, are betting on higher steel prices in 2010 as a group by stockpiling. The steel inventory level in the country has swelled and risk has accumulated.” The document said that at the end of 2009, the total steel inventory in China was 70 million-80 million tonnes, up by about 20 million-30 million tonnes on a YOY basis. As total steel output in 2010 is likely to top 700 million tonnes, the high inventory and strong output will put pressure on steel prices, according to the document. The document also said that if steel prices go lower, banks will face “severe financial risks.” A writer who goes by the handle Robry, and who has gained a loyal following with his natural gas fuel reports, wrote in his weekly analysis "Overall (at least short-term), the gas-flows are starting to exhibit a slowing, stalling, meandering look... (no doubt reflecting at least in part the malaise in the markets, the malaise in government, and the malaise in employment), leaving one to wonder what comes next. As recoveries (and recessions) feed upon themselves, a loss of momentum opens the door to unpredictability... where a single news story... a single political gaff... a single down-day in the markets... even a single meteorological event (such as a crippling snowstorm) can impact consumers in such a way as to get a ball rolling that will quickly become difficult to stop. The danger is not so much on the Industrial/Business side of the economy (though businesses will and do react, compounding problems) but on the consumption side of the economy... where consumers (at a single bad news story) will cut back spending... "just in case". In my own opinion... every recession starts out by "just in case"."

  Reports

  Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments

  • (Dow Jones) Russia exported 244,700 metric tons of nickel in 2009, 3.3% less than in 2008, the federal customs service said Monday.
  • Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig Explains His Dissenting Vote - more
  • Living on Nothing but Food Stamps - more (reader submitted, aged article but worth noting)
  • Employment Chart Roundup - more
  • Euro Your Boat, I’ll Sail the Dollar - more
  • Bank Securitization Woes Only Beginning - more
  • Despite Carping, Dollar Is Still King - more
  • My Sunday media nightmare - more
  • America Is Not Yet Lost - more
  • No Double-Dip Slump but Recovery Slow: Geithner - more

  Metals prices heading for the roof - Speakers at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town this week seemed as one in warning of a near-term supply-demand squeeze and some solid price increases for a swathe of metals. - more

  Jilted Xstrata Going It Alone, For The Moment At least - Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata is done being told to take a hike. Toward the end of 2008 the world’s third-biggest platinum miner, Lonmin, resisted its hostile takeover. And last year Anglo American spurned merger talks with its would-be partner. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 1PM in London)

  • Indicators at 7:20 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.03/lb , with other base metals mostly higher. The Euro is trading slightly higher against the US Dollar this morning, but its losing ground at the moment. NYMEX crude futures are up 2/3 of 1% and over $71.50/barrel. Gold is down less than  1/10 of 1% and silver is off more than 1/2 of 1%.  In overnight trading, Asian markets ended slightly lower, with China closing the same. European markets are lower after European finance chiefs failed to ease concern over deficits in Greece, Portugal and Spain. US futures are slightly higher this morning, implying Wall Street may take a stab at a bullish day. Nickel inventories rose slightly over the weekend, and the BDI rose 7 points.
  • Bloomberg morning base metal news - more
  • Reuters morning report - more

  Reports

  Commodity/Economic Comments

  • Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Where to from here? After the recent steep declines and RSI readings that are all in the 20’s for most metals, we suspect the complex is due for a modest technical bounce. In fact, we could very well be carving out trading ranges in a number of markets, with the top end of the range probably defined for the next several months, and possibly for the year as a whole if the budding global economic recovery disappoints. The bottom end of the range is still “a work-in-progress”, although some of the metals seem to be getting to quite attractive at current levels. These include tin and lead, whose fundamentals remain quite constructive going into 2010. The ones that still look most problematic to us are copper and aluminum, with the latter potentially seeing more weakness if some of the locked-up material on the LME starts getting released onto the market.  .... Nickel is at $17,125, up $75, and still very range-bound. Friday’s close below $18,000 support suggests further downside erosion, possibly to $16,500.  (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
  • (MB) Jinchuan cuts nickel prices 4%
  • Wealth Managers See Bright Future In California - more

  Aust nickel miner Western Areas expects turnaround in H1 - Australian nickel producer Western Areas NL is tipping a turnaround in fortunes in its first half, after making a loss in the corresponding period a year earlier. - more

  Xstrata sees renewed commodities boom - Anglo-Swiss mining group Xstrata on Monday reported a 41 per cent drop in its annual profit in 2009 and pinned its hopes on a renewed boom in commodities demand in China and other emerging economies. - more

  Sojitz Plans to Double Molybdenum Sales as Steel Demand Grows - Sojitz Corp., Japan’s largest molybdenum trader, expects to double its sales in the next three years on increased demand from steelmakers, an executive said. - more

  BHP insists it will hold on to its nickel assets - The rumour that BHP Billiton is looking to offload its remaining nickel assets for upwards of $US3 billion just won't go away. - more

  Global iron and steel production to reach a record high in 2010 - MEPS forecasts world steel output at 1350 million tonnes in 2010. - more

  Sudbury/Voisey's Bay Nickel Strike Coverage

  • About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
  • Sudbury Star
  • Vale/Inco offer // Vale/Inco Company Site
  • Union Strike Site //  USW  Local 6500
  • Sudbury TV // Sudbury Northern Life Videos
  • Vale Inco strike: the sounds of silence - Someone said the other day the strike at Vale Inco might go for another two years. - more
  • Vale sending nickel off to Welsh refinery - The first shipment of nickel concentrate to be processed into matte at Copper Cliff Smelter Complex since a strike by Steelworkers began seven months ago is on its way to Vale Inco's refinery in Clydach, Wales. - more
  • Sides grow further apart; Vale Inco says it will resume full production, whether the strike ends or not - Vale Inco is aiming for full production, with or without its 3,200 production and maintenance workers. - more

  Iron Ore News // Talks / Spy Scandal Coverage

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

  • London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's figures see MF Global report above)
  • Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here or here (chart)
  • Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here  
  • Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

February Archives


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All prices shown on this page are indications only. "A Guide To LME Trading"...pdf here "The ABCs of a Metals Exchange" ...pdf here (Molybdenum prices are for molybdenum oxide, an ingredient and major price factor in 316 stainless) (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated daily before 8 am CST and before 1 pm CST weekdays - Disclaimer Candlestick Pattern Dictionary here / Intro to Candlesticks here Original content and opinions copyright www.estainlesssteel.com. Note - For real time and official LME prices, LME requires a user subscribe to be an authorized LME vendor.