Updated twice daily before 8:00 am CST and 1 pm CST

  Daily Nickel/Stainless Wrap-up

• Official LME nickel closing prices (if not showing prices for 30 April, page should be updated shortly) - posted here  (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 83 to 9,356. (chart)
• Nickel inventories - if interested in learning about yesterday's movements in LME stored nickel inventories, you can find the statistics here and here
• American equity traders are apparently desperate for any good news. Today, US GDP numbers were released, and they revealed a snail's pace growth of .6% during the first quarter of the year. This was better than the .5% the experts had predicted, and the US equity market responded favorably, although still held in check by the uncertainty of what the Fed will do later today. Their announcement is due at 2:15 pm EST, which means the FOMC announcement will be made after London markets close. Any immediate reaction to the Fed announcement in London base metals trading, will have to wait till tomorrow. The indicator charts show nickel traders weren't near as excited about the news as US traders were, with nickel climbing until the GDP numbers were released, then a quick about face. While the dollar has been quiet today, there was a greater risk of the GDP numbers giving the Fed a reason to leave interest rates alone, thus helping the dollar, thus putting pressure on commodity futures. We will know a lot more in a few hours, but in the mean time, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day, and month, at $12.93/lb .     
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more
• Saw this being discussed on an investor forum - more

  Thank you!!

• Wanted to thank Pennsylvania based Duraloy for being a site sponsor over the last three months, and faithful readers for many years. If your business is in the market for high-alloy, heat-resistant castings, please consider Duraloy.
• And if you are interested in reaching readers that follow the stainless steel industry, and the metals it takes to make the stainless steel, we welcome applicable sponsors. In a few days, we should be introducing our newest sponsor, a Canadian molybdenum mining company. Thanks again to Duraloy!!

  The Burj Tower in Dubai is still under construction but in July last year it already became the world's tallest building. The facade of the skyscraper is decorated with stainless steel from Germany. - more (and thanks to the reader who sent us this photo yesterday)

Click image to see larger image

  South Africa's electricity crisis dominated the annual shareholders' meeting of ferrochrome producer Merafe Resources on Tuesday, with shareholders expressing their concerns about what the crisis means for their company. - more

  After intense battle of nerves with the steelmakers, the government on Tuesday imposed up to 15 per cent export duty on various steel products to contain rise of prices of the alloy, a move that will hit industry hard. - more

  Sherritt International Corp said on Wednesday its first-quarter profit was flat amid a 41-percent drop in realized nickel prices and marginal revenue growth. - more

  Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata's chief executive Mick Davis said he would have no issue with the company being bought by another company, provided it brought shareholder value. - more

  It is fashionable to apply physics to investing. One axiom that looks relevant to investment in commodities is Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. - more (over a week old but we missed it and thought it was worth posting)

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.18/lb higher.  Today, US releases first quarter GDP figures, and more importantly, the Fed will announce any cut in the interest rate in the early afternoon. "Potentially", this could be the pin that bursts the squeeze we have been following (here) and move the price of nickel out of the ever narrowing trend lines. Whether it happens or not, is left to be decided, but remember this. We remain in a 'bull' market, and the market 'wants' to go up.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices sold off yesterday, with copper leading the way, off by some $110 on the day. Metals were pressured mainly by the dollar, which rose sharply ahead of the Fed meeting later today. At this stage, we think the sell-off in metals still has more room to run today, as the Fed decision-- should it involve leaving rates unchanged, as we suspect it might-- could boost the dollar and pressure commodities further in the process. Even if the Fed were to cut rates by 25 basis points (as is the majority view), we still could see the dollar rally if the accompanying policy statement suggests that the downward move will be the last for a while. Either way, a dollar rally could likely derail the short dollar/long metals play that has been working so well for much of the year....Shanghai stocks for the latest week were reported overnight, (see our table above) as Chinese markets will be closed for Labor Day through to next Monday. ....Nickel is at $28,790, up $140, and quiet."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)

  Due to the weak nickel price and demand for stainless steel, Taiwan's Yieh United Steel Co. (Yusco) announced that it was cutting its domestic prices for its 300 series. - more

• In most Asian countries’ stainless steel prices keep increasing due to the high cost of raw materials. - more
• Interfax header only - " Chinese stainless steel makers have agreed to cut their ex-works prices for 300-series austenitic stainless steel products by as much as RMB 1,500 ($214.29) per ton in May, under pressure from market surplus, a Chinese stainless steel company official told Interfax today." (subscription article)
• Market prices of stainless CR sheets in Asia indicate a continued upswing except China's domestic stainless steel market. Having an impact are bullish export deals by stainless steel manufacturers in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. - more

  Hyundai Steel Says First-Quarter Profit Surges 35% - (excerpt) "Hyundai Steel also benefited from a ``recovery in stainless steel demand,'' it said. Weaker demand for its stainless steel products contributed to a 14 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit along with higher raw material costs." - more

• Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's largest maker of the alloy, said rising demand will keep domestic steel prices at high levels in the third quarter. - more

  It is reported that India plans to add about 4.6 million tonnes per year of stainless steel capacity in 5 years, which could make it the world’s second largest stainless producer after China. - more

• India today scrapped import taxes on pig iron and other steel products to bolster domestic supplies and curb inflation, holding near a three-year high. - more

  Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel said on Wednesday first-quarter 2008 nickel output rose to 74,572 tonnes from 60,913 tonnes in the same quarter of 2007. - more

  Courtesy Bazaar Bhav - "The Philippines shipped 72% less nickel ore to China in March than a year earlier as prices of refined nickel dropped, reducing the appeal of the cheaper alternative raw material for making stainless steel."

  In the first quarter of 2008, China imported 1.66 million tonnes of chrome ore up by 32.4% YoY as compared to 1.334 million tonnes in first quarter of 2007, with an increase of USD 280 million import value in Q1 increasing 112% YoY. - more

  The industrialization of China is driving Vale Inco's nickel production expansion and North Bay's mining sector is coming along for the ride. - more

  Copyright/courtesy AP - "Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Inc. said Wednesday it will raise base prices on all tool steel products made at its Bridgeville and Dunkirk plants by 5% to 7%, effective May 1 on new orders. Current material and energy surcharges will remain in effect. The company said the new price hikes are necessary to offset sharply higher energy and operating supply costs amid continued strong market demand."

  Stainless steel, an iron-carbon alloy containing chromium and other metals, has a wide range of applications, including cookware, building materials, and medical implants. - more

• 96 years ago, on April 14th 1912, the supposedly unsinkable Titanic hit an iceberg off the Grand Banks of Newfoundland in the Atlantic Ocean and went straight to the bottom of the sea. - more

  London Metal Exchange inventory figures - available here (charts)

  Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - 236500-240500 minus 1750 (charts) (markets closed May 1-4)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - posted here (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 71 to 9,273. (chart)  - (article)
• Nickel inventories - if interested in learning about yesterday's movements in LME stored nickel inventories, you can find the statistics here and here 
• Bloomberg started out the business day with bad news, when it reported the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 12.7% from a year earlier, not only more than forecast, and not only the most since the figures were first published in 2001, but also the 16th consecutive monthly drop. They stated "Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in February by the most on record, pointing to an imbalance between supply and demand that shows no sign of ending." In other words, the American family's largest single investment, has been losing value since January of last year, and continues to do so. We could have swore we were reading just a few weeks ago, that some respected Wall Street analysts were saying the bottom was in and things were turning around. Bloomberg kept up the bad news when at 10 am EST it reported "Consumer Confidence in US Falls to Five-Year Low" Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, told Marketwatch "In short, the numbers are dreadful". Metals trading appeared to continue its "hold pattern" today, awaiting the FOMC decision tomorrow. Indicators show nickel started out heading south, and falling nearly $700/tonne, but late in the trading day began a comeback. According to the Dow Jones report below, three month nickel ended at $13.00/lb .  
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more
• MSN Money - more
• We get a fair share of mining company's that visit this site daily, and so we thought we would throw this in for them. If your company is interested in mining in Congo, and are personally sent to the country to investigate, wear a cup - more

  BNP Paribas Markets Data - here

  Copyright/courtesy Thomson Financial - "Prices over the coming months are likely to be choppy to weaker, with sliding U.S. economic conditions dictating sentiment," said Pervan at ANZ. "Currency markets may also provide less support for metals, with early signs of a floor in the dollar."

  Sandvik Falls Most in Five Years After Earnings Miss - (excerpt) A slide in the price of nickel last year hurt Sandvik as it was unable to charge customers what had paid for the metal, used to make stainless steel and specialized alloys. - more

  China's largest steel provider, Baoshan Iron and Steel Co Ltd, reported its first quarter net profit rose 16 percent over the same period last year on better performance from its stainless steel sector. - more

  SS producers report improved market conditions in Q1 of 2008 - more (comment - Russian analyst SOGRA recently forecast nickel demand to grow to a record 1.47 million tonnes this year, mostly due to increased demand in China and the increased cost of chrome.)

  In a deal that could eventually encourage fresh mining investment in Indonesia, mining giant Rio Tinto has agreed on long-term tax arrangements for its $US2 billion La Sampala nickel project on Sulawesi. - more

  Reuters' Metal Production Database and Labour Contract Diary - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.27/lb lower. All base and precious metals appear to be down thus far this morning, probably a reflection of the slight strengthening of the dollar. Nickel seems to be taking it on the chin especially hard.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price Report - pdf here
• Canada Commodity Price Update - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "This morning, we have opened slightly lower, with little “new news” to speak of. The strikes in Chile continue, but other than that, it is very quiet. Not surprisingly, prices are off somewhat today, as the void is being filled by apprehension in front of the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates out tomorrow. If, as we suspect, the Federal Reserve stands pat on rates, or signals that it is done for the time being, we could see the dollar strengthen, and lead to another bout of profit-talking in commodities. Right now, the dollar is at 1.5578 against the Euro, up sharply from yesterday’s levels....Nickel is at $28,840, down $450 and still trading within a very narrow band. We remain neutral here pending a clearer move on the charts."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Copyright/courtesy Metals Insider - "Speaking to analysts on its Q1 results conference call, VALE dismissed fears that the recent move to low- or no-nickel (ferritic) grades of stainless would be anything other than a temporary phenomenon. “It is not a permanent solution because the end-user will suffer so the stainless steel industry is able to do this from a short-term perspective… but it’s natural that given the lower nickel price and the fact that it’s not technically feasible to promote permanent substitution, the austenitic ratio is gradually moving to its normal level of 75-78%.”

  When Companhia Vale do Rio Doce arrived in the small Canadian mining town of Sudbury a year and a half ago, Mayor John Rodriguez recalls wondering: ``Who are these Brazilians?'' - more

  Steel giant ArcelorMittal said on Tuesday it had signed record long-term contracts with Companhia Vale do Rio Doce for the Brazilian firm to supply iron ore and pellets to its plants. - more

  In a research report, Macquarie says hard coking coal prices have risen to an average of $US285-$US300 ($NZ360-$NZ380) a tonne for Australian and Canadian producers who have recently settled deals with Japanese steel mills. - more

  India’s stainless seamless pipe producer, Suraj Stainless Ltd intends to enlarge its capacity to 26,000 tpy from 12,000 tpy, in a bid to meet the increased demand of stainless steel pipes and tubes. - more

  Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc, under pressure to broaden its reach in commodities as it fights a takeover by BHP Billiton Ltd, said on Tuesday it had agreed to tax clauses with Indonesia needed before it can develop a nickel mine costing $1.5 billion. - more

• Rio Tinto Ltd. said Tuesday it has reached an agreement with Indonesia's government on tax clauses for its proposed $2 billion (1.3 billion euro) nickel project on Sulawesi island. - more
• Courtesy/copyright Asia Pulse - Unaudited net profit of PT International Nickel Indonesia fell sharply 38.72 per cent to US$139.6 million in the first quarter of this year from US$227.8 million in the same period last year. The decline was attributable to 14.93 per cent dive in sales to US$380 million from US$446.7 million, President Arif Siregar of the subsidiary of Canada's Inco Limited said.

  The administrative court should confirm the legality of the pipe of Goro Nickel, in spite of the recourse of two associations ecologists. But, in his delivered conclusions Thursday, the government commissioner approaches the legal consequences D’a classification of the lagoon. - translated article here (original French here)

• Confronted with serious difficulties, L’industrial lets plane the doubt as for its intention to continue the building work of its factory. At six months of the startup effective of the hydrometallurgic complex, situation N’ever was also tended. - translated article here

  Pressure on China's steel mills to concede a price rise to Australian iron ore suppliers which includes a breakthrough freight differential is limited because of big stockpiles at Chinese ports. - more

• China's steel industry still opposes including any freight premium in iron ore prices in negotiations with Australian miners, even as pressure rises to seal a deal in the next two months. - more

  According to a recent survey provided by Wenzhou Fastener Association, the number of fastener companies in Wenzhou has dropped dramatically from over 3000 three years ago to about 2000 this year. - more (original French here)

  US transaction prices are going through the roof with gains over the last four weeks as high as $US145 per tonne for some products and more substantial hikes planned by the mills for June deliveries. - more

• Sky-high production costs, strong demand and tight supplies have pushed global steel prices to new highs so far this year, but a correction may be on the way towards the end of this year, analysts say. - more
• If America and Japan are in recession, nobody told the steel market. The price of hot-rolled coil used in cars and trucks has risen 40pc since Christmas, reaching a record $1,003 a tonne last week. - more
• Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending April 26, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,118,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 88.8 percent. Production was 2,113,000 tons in the week ending April 26, 2007, while the capability utilization then was 88.3 percent. The current week production represents a 0.2 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending April 26, 2008 is down 1.6 percent from the previous week ending April 19, 2008 when production was 2,154,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 90.3 percent."

  Eramet SA, operator of the world's largest ferronickel plant, said first-quarter sales expanded 38 percent on higher manganese prices. - more

  China's economy may be increasingly affected by the U.S. slowdown and global financial market turbulence, the National Development and Reform Commission said today in Beijing. - more

  Here is a little-known fact. The three-month contract, which has become standard across the financial world from commodities trading through to money markets, derivatives and other more exotic products, has its roots in the Victorian shipping trade. - more

  London Metal Exchange inventory figures - available here (charts)

  Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - 239000-241500 minus 750 (charts)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - posted here   (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 15 to 9,344. (chart)
• London Metal Exchange inventory movements posted here (charts)
• One of the more boring days in the way of market news. Except maybe OPEC President Chakib Khelil telling Algerian media that $200/barrel oil is very possible. World markets looked like a fleet of sail boats sitting in a windless lake today. A lot of attention is being paid to the Wednesday FOMC meeting. Dollar gained a little as traders bet the Fed would leave rates alone. The consensus earlier this morning appeared to be the market was betting on a 25 base point cut, down to an even 2%, but that appears to be in doubt. Lowering the interest rate further to address recessionary concerns runs the real risk of exacerbating inflation concerns. Inflation concerns have helped prop up metal prices. Metal indicator charts were about as exciting as the news today, with nickel appearing to trade in a thin range. For the day, according to Dow Jones, three month nickel ended the day at $13.28/lb .  
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more

  (follow-up to subscription article this morning - with article attached) China's nickel supply shortfall may sink to under 100,000 tonnes this year on the back of increasing domestic nickel production, decreasing exports and expanding nickel pig iron production, analysts said at the 2008 Nickle & Cobalt Industrial Chain Forum held in the Zhejiang provincial capital of Hangzhou last Friday. - more

  Russia's SOGRA forecasts the price of ferrochrome to continue to increase thru 2008, courtesy of increased production of stainless steel, and supply concerns. They are also forecasting a market deficit for 2008 of 300,000 tonnes, compared to a 147,000 tonne deficit in 2007. SOGRA also states that the market is in such a state of confusion, with power cuts in South Africa,  that there is very little to stop further price increases.

  On April 6, 2006, in Alloy Piping Products, Inc., Flowline Division, et al. v. United States, Slip Op. 06-47, ("Alloy Piping II "), the Court of International Trade ("CIT") affirmed the Department of Commerce's (the "Department") Final Results of Determination Pursuant to Remand ("Remand Results "), dated August 16, 2004, and entered a judgment order. - more

 Norilsk develops relations with producers in China Norilsk Nickel Director General Denis Morozov, during his visit to China, met with top managers of the country’s major companies and held a round table discussion that featured participation of heads of major state and private enterprises including TISCO, Baosteel, JISCO, Northeast Special Steel, Tsingshan Holding Group, Sichuan Southwest Stainless Steel Co. and others, Norilsk Nickel said in a press release. - more

  Chinese steel industry officials said on Monday that China's mills are not considering paying a freight premium demanded by Australian iron ore miners BHP Billiton Ltd and Rio Tinto Ltd, denying a media report. - more

  The exports of iron ore are set to come to a grinding halt with the proposed levy of 10 per cent royalty on sales, coupled with a 40 per cent hike in the freight rates. - more

  China's Baoshan Iron and Steel Co reported on Monday a 16 percent rise in first-quarter earnings, beating analysts' forecasts, after rising steel prices offset a surge in raw material costs. - more

  If America and Japan are in recession, nobody told the steel market. The price of hot-rolled coil used in cars and trucks has risen 40pc since Christmas, reaching a record $1,003 a tonne last week. - more

  Reuters Factbox -What is Steel? - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.09/lb lower . Trading is thin, and as Mr Meir's forecasts, is likely to remain so until Wednesday, when the Fed announces what action it might take to combat recessionary concerns, or inflationary concerns. The technical chart that we have been following here might have to adjust the TL4 line slightly up, as trading peaked over the line at one point on Friday, and indicators show it 'might' have done so again this morning, although it appears to be currently trading well within the 'squeeze'. The moving of the line would have little effect on this so-called "squeeze" factor we are watching closely.    
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• Haywood Metals & Mining Weekly - pdf here
• Two new presentations added to INSG page we linked to last week - Markus Moll and Nickel Institute's Stephen Barnett's presentations added here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices rose on Friday despite a steady dollar, which apparently did not trouble the markets much. Additionally, metals could not help but notice the explosive move in crude oil prices, which made up all of Thursday's losses, and rose sharply on a variety of geopolitical tensions and labor strife... This morning, we are adding to Friday’s gains, as this time, the weaker dollar is helping. The euro rose against the dollar after an industry report showed German consumer confidence unexpectedly rising this past month...We expect commodities in general to remain firm at least through to midweek, as the strong energy complex sets the tone, while the weakness in the dollar should also help. Things could change by Wednesday, where we expect the dollar's rally to pick up steam if the Federal Reserve decides to stand pat on interest rates. This could set off another potentially heavy round of profit taking in commodities, but until then, the markets will be probing the upside a little further....Nickel is at $29,400, up $495, nickel’s trading band seems to be very compressed of late, with prices fluctuating within a $2000 band for practically all of April. We remain neutral here pending a clearer move on the charts." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)

  (subscription article - leader only) China's nickel supply shortfall may sink to under 100,000 tons this year on the back of increasing domestic nickel production, decreasing exports and expanding nickel pig iron production, analysts said at the 2008 Nickle & Cobalt Industrial Chain Forum held in the Zhejiang provincial capital of Hangzhou last Friday.

  Finnish steel producer Outokumpu said that uncertainty resulting from the global economic turmoil has increased but has so far not had any major impact on stainless steel fundamentals, but there is an increasing risk that the uncertainty might affect both demand and price development of stainless steel going forward. - more

  It is reported that Taigang itself plans to produce 2 million tonnes of stainless steel in 2008, below original plans to produce 2.3 million tonnes. - more

  In his first public comments on the issue, Oleg Deripaska, a metals billionaire who is one of cash-soaked Russia's wealthiest men, said he considers the U.S. "the last country on the list where we would invest" because of Washington's refusal to grant him an entry visa. - more

  Chrome News

• Chrome ore price has been surging, triggered by robust demand from both domestic and overseas markets. - more
• The majority of second quarter charge chrome and high carbon ferrochrome contracts have been settled, with the prices achieved showing a strong premium for the high carbon material. - more
• The matters to take over ferro-alloy producers by major resources companies, having possessed manganese mines and chrome mines, have been successively materialized on 3 cases from the beginning of 2008. - more

  Domestic steel prices have been rising for the fourth week in China, boosted by growing demand, analysts said. - more

• China has given its first clear indication that it will agree to pay a freight differential to iron ore majors BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto as the cat-and-mouse game over the 2008 contract price continues. - more

  Commodity prices reached an aggregate record for the third consecutive month, led by oil, fertilizer and base metals, Scotiabank vice-president and commodity market specialist Patricia Mohr reported on Thursday. - more

  Thinking of throwing out your old cell phone? Think again. Maybe you should mine it first for gold, silver, copper and a host of other metals embedded in the electronics - many of which are enjoying near-record prices. - more

  London Metal Exchange inventory figures -  available today here (please see site change on weekend update)

  Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - 240000-242000 plus 750 (charts)

  Mr Luo Binsheng executive vice chairman of China Iron & Steel Association made a speech, at a steel conference, on international and domestic environment facing Chinese iron and steel industry and the developing trend. - more

  Currently, China’s domestic ferrochrome prices are rising because of tight supply, which pushed increasing international quoted price either so that steel mills are in large need of ferrochrome now. - more

  It is reported that About 300 heavily armed Maoists raided Essar Steel's plant near Kirandul in Chattisgarh burning around 53 trucks and three heavy machines. - more

  Base Metals - Week in Review - here

  Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Market Report - pdf here

  National Mining Association Mining Week - pdf here

  "With the cost of iron ore skyrocketing many people will need a low cost alternative. I have found what I believe to be a wonderful solution, partially processed low grade iron ore otherwise known as copper slag." -  forum conversation here (may be nothing but it's an interesting discussion)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - posted here (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 147 to 9,329. (chart) (article - Steel demand sends shipping costs soaring - more)
• Nickel inventories - if interested in learning about yesterday's movements in LME stored nickel inventories, you can find the statistics here and here
• Based off our remarks on Wednesday, it appears we are still trading within the technical "squeeze" zone, which is growing tighter (chart here). U.S. consumer confidence data released this morning came in lower than expected, and while the Euro didn't immediately gain against the dollar, the sentiment of the dollar losing its recent steam, may have been the primary recent base metals got an afternoon push. PT Inco reported it had produced 12% more nickel the first quarter of 2008 than it had the same period in 2007. Nickel took a rather respectable jump in late afternoon trading, according to indicators. For the day, and week, Dow Jones reports three month nickel closed at $13.38/lb . That gives nickel a 2.37% gain on the week, and it remains 12.34% higher than it ended 2007 at. However, today's close is 19.2% lower than the 2007 average price.  
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more
• Another movie/tv/sport web site anyone? here And in the double-take department, this article about Greenpeace is interesting here Have a safe and restful weekend!

  As demand for material from stainless steel producers increases and supply decreases the ferrochrome prices in the USA continue to rise. - more 

  Leading global carbon asset developer Camco Group has reached an agreement to buy 1 million tons of CO2 emissions from the world's largest stainless steel producer Taigang Stainless Steel Co by late 2009 under the clean development mechanism (CDM) project. - more

  The holding company controlled by Russia's richest man, Oleg Deripaska, surprised investors Thursday when it announced it had concluded a deal to acquire a sizable stake in Norilsk Nickel—a metals conglomerate controlled by two other billionaires. - more

  Comment - The change we made at the behest of the LME has caused some confusion for some readers, and we apologize for that. When we link to the LME page for the daily official prices in our afternoon update, you will see (i.e. LME Official Prices (US$/tonne) for 25 Apr 2008 (Data >1 day old)) these are the actual official prices for today. You can disregard the 1 day old part. When the LME posts the update, at about 12:45 PM CST, it is already tomorrow in Australian and China markets, and thus, 1 day old, even if the news is current for those of us in the Western Hemisphere. As one Aussie reader told us months ago, "What gets you Yanks all worked up today, is day old news down here".  

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.05/lb higher. Metals trading appears to be very quiet this morning.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Forbes - more

  Reports

• Presentations by Industry Experts at two International Nickel Study Group seminars - numerous pdf files here (links on speakers names)
• Germany - Damstahl Stainless Steel Report - pdf here
• Standard Bank Morning Comment - here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "By one account, the US currency had its biggest daily move against the Euro since 2004 yesterday, and besides base metals, energy, precious metals, and agricultural all came under pressure. The dollar's advance was due to a number of factors. For one thing, poor macro readings out of Europe-- specifically, worse-than-expected business confidence readings out of Germany and France-- coupled with better-than-expected weekly initial claims readings and durable goods numbers out of the US, helped firm up the greenback. Also a positive, are growing perceptions that the Fed will leave rates unchanged when it meets next week. We frankly hope that it indeed, does stand aside; this would only strengthen the dollar further, and perhaps break the upward commodity spirals we are seeing. For all the benefit that rising commodity prices are bestowing on producers, letting the dollar slip into a freefall only stokes worldwide inflationary pressures and could lead to major economic dislocations down the road. This morning, we are off to a mixed start, as most metals are under pressure, with the exception of zinc and tin. The dollar’s strength is again overriding the prevailing bullish headlines of the day. ..For now, it seems that the dollar is going to set the short-term in metals, and we expect that its renewed vigor will last at least until the Fed decision is out on Wednesday. Should the central bank decide to cut rates again, we could see much of the recent gains evaporate, and commodities could be off to the races again. Until then, we would be cautious about the upside and would not be buying the dips....Nickel is at $28,895, down $10, and so far, sitting out the weakness prevalent in the rest of the group.(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)

  China's unwrought nickel exports in March 2008 stood at 462 mt, which was a marginal 1.8% increase compared with the 454 mt exported in February, but  it represented a sharp fall of 76% from March 2007, the latest figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed Thursday. - more

  Reuters, citing an official of world’s largest stainless steel maker Taiyuan Iron & Steel Group, reported that China's stainless steel capacity has reached a conservative 12 million tonnes and that growing production could turn China into a net exporter. - more

  Because of rising raw material prices, most Asian countries stainless steel prices rose, only the relatively stable. - (poorly translated article here)

  Vietnam raised its export tax on crude oil to eight percent from four percent starting from Tuesday, and the export tax on coal was lifted to 15 percent from 10 percent, according to the Tax Policy Department under the Finance Ministry. - more

  Brazilian miner Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Vale) said Thursday that first-quarter net earnings fell 8.8 percent hit by currency volatility and a drop in the price of nickel. - more

• Brazilian mining giant Vale said Thursday it registered a net profit of 2.25 billion reais (1.35 billion U.S. dollars) in the first quarter of 2008, down 55.8 percent year on year - more

  Rusal, the aluminum company majority owned by the Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska, announced Thursday that it had purchased 25 percent of Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest nickel producer, in a deal that furthers the ambitions of the young Russian billionaire to forge one of the world's largest metals and mining conglomerates - more

  Daily London Metal Exchange inventory figures posted here   (charts)

  Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 239000-241500 RMB/t, plus/minus 0   (charts)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - posted here (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 320 to 9,182. (chart)
• Nickel inventories - Recorded movements in LME stored nickel inventories, statistics on two pages - here and here
• US reports came out giving mixed signals this morning. The durable goods index, less freight, was up 1.5%. Unemployment claims came in lower than expected, but new homes sales came in at the lowest level since October 1991, silencing the 'housing market has stabilized' theorists. Dow started out weak, but after Ford reported it actually made money last quarter, the Dow jumped into the green. Yes, Ford. Dollar was stronger against the Euro today when a German business confidence index fell the most since 2001, adding pressure on metals trading. Tin hit a new record high early, before slumping. The rest of the base metals complex experienced a rather humdrum day. Nickel traders apparently were encouraged by the INSG forecast that nickel demand would hit a record high this year. And for the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ending the day at $13.09/lb .  
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more
• Reuters metals article - more
• Quoting from a Dow Jones story today - "Prices of nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange have fallen as much as 52% since the record high of $51,800 a ton in May 2007 due partly to a slowdown in stainless steel consumption and the development of a substitute called nickel pig iron in China."(source) Won't dispute what was written but we might word it a tad differently. "Prices of three month nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange have risen from an average of $2.70/lb in 2001, to a record high of $23.50/lb (May 9, 2007) and are currently selling for around five times the 2001 average. The Chinese, the world's largest consumer of nickel, realizing that they would have to find an alternative source to insure adequate supply, are using a process by which low grade laterite ore, considered by many to be waste material, can be refined."

  Mr Denis Morozov general director of Norilsk Nickel said that the nickel market will begin to stabilize in 2008 as speculators move away, after a highly volatile environment in 2007. - more

  It is reported that Taiyuan Steel has increased stainless steel export offers to South Korea for June 2008 shipment. - more

  Russia's United Company RusAl, the world's largest aluminum producer, said on Thursday it had closed a deal to buy a blocking interest of 25% plus one share in Norilsk Nickel from billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov. - more

• Few people have the means to affect the Russian economy like Deripaska. - more

  Commodity prices should retreat by 10 to 15 percent by the end of 2010, while the Canadian dollar should remain relatively steady around 98 U.S. cents (C$1.02 to the dollar) in coming months, the Bank of Canada projected on Thursday. - more

  Companies mining minerals like gold and uranium on federal lands could find a government royalty tacked onto their operating costs if a group of US senators gets its way. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.06/lb higher. Looking at precious and basemetals indicator prices this morning, it appears metal traders are very quiet. Report for Durable Goods Orders was released about 1/2 hour ago, and came in with very disappointing numbers. Jobless claims and new home sales is also on track for release today. INSG reports demand for nickel will increase this year, but not as much as supply. And yesterday, Outokumpu reported ""Uncertainty resulting from the global economic turmoil has increased but has so far not had any major impact on stainless steel fundamentals. There is however an increasing risk that the uncertainty might affect both demand and price development of stainless steel." Their stainless steel deliveries were up 4.5% compared to the same quarter last year, which was before the latter half slow -down in stainless production in 2007.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• Steel Founders' Society of America: Casteel Reporter April 2008 - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "We are off to a mixed start at the time of this writing, with copper slightly higher, but ali a touch lower. ...We suspect that the overall price bias in metals could be lower over the course of the next day or so given the surprising rally in the dollar, which has gained ground against the Euro for a second day in a row and is now at $1.5750. The greenback moved sharply higher after reports out of Europe showed that both French and German confidence readings plunging to their lowest levels in 16 and 24 months, respectively. The dollar also rose against the yen as well....Nickel is at $28,740, up $40, and quiet." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• ScotiaMcLeod Weekly Market Strategy April 21,1008 - "The main driving forces behind the commodity surge are resilient demand and the lack of any supply response. And since the dominant commodity consuming countries do not appear to be as price sensitive as Wal-Mart shoppers, the sweet ride is bound to continue to surprise. However, one could only imagine what would happen should the laws of supply and demand eventually work their way back into the equation."
• Comment (not stainless steel) - Some of our readers use steel and stainless steel fasteners. If you use steel fasteners, you have probably already heard of the 40-50% price hikes coming down the pike. If you use steel all thread rod, not only do you have to worry about the price increases, but you also have to worry about an anti-dumping suit currently being investigated, that will likely result in additional import duties this fall. We've read potential duties of more than 50%. Do the math. Steel all thread rod could become ridiculously expensive. If you have anyway of forecasting usage, you might consider stocking up.  

  World primary nickel consumption is expected to reach a record high in 2008 due to a recovery in nickel-containing stainless steel production around the world, particularly in China, the International Nickel Study Group said Thursday. - more

  The total quantity of primary nickel produced by western countries in the calendar year (January - December) of 2007 remained as unclogged from that in the preceding year of 2006 but that by eastern countries had a substantial increase of 20% compared with that in 2006. - more

  China's unwrought nickel exports in March 2008 stood at 462 mt, which was a marginal 1.8% increase compared with the 454 mt exported in February, but  it represented a sharp fall of 76% from March 2007, the latest figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed Thursday. - more

  Major Chinese stainless steel producers will not reduce their ex-works prices in May despite growing market stockpiles, due to upward pressure from high production costs, analysts told Interfax today. - more

  There is concern in New Caledonia over the future of the Goro Nickel project which has been affected by protests that have prompted the contractors to stop working on a pipeline for the plant’s effluent. - more

• Confronted with serious difficulties, L’industrial lets plane the doubt as for its intention to continue the building work of its factory. At six months of the startup effective of the hydrometallurgic complex, situation N’ever was also tended. - translated version here

  Allegheny Technologies Incorporated reported net income for the first quarter 2008 of $142.0 million, or $1.40 per share, on sales of $1.34 billion. - more

  Universal Stainless & Alloy Products, Inc. reported today that sales for the first quarter of 2008 were $56.8 million, which is in line with $56.2 million reported in the first quarter of 2007 - more

  According to traders, quoted price of 42% to 44% chips from South Africa at Lianyungang was still at CNY 83 to CNY 85 per tonne, 36% lumpy from Oman was at CNY 60 to CNY 62 per tonne, 46% lumpy from Philippine at Tianjingang was at CNY 90 to CNY 94 per tonne, 42% lumpy were at CNY 112 to CNY 116 per tonne and CNY 115 to CNY 118 per tonne from Pakistan and Turkey respectively and 50% concentrates chrome from India was at CNY 115 to CNY 118 per tonne. - more

  It is reported that Shougang Group plans to jointly explore Cr ore concentrate resource in Philippines with a Xiamen based private enterprise. - more

  Rio Tinto returned fire on BHP Billiton and its critics today, dismissing claims that it was slow to recognise the China boom and suggestions that its argument over relative value to its suitor was losing traction. - more

  Now he's aiming for control of Moscow-based OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest producer of the metal, as well as Russian oil producer OAO Russneft. - more

  Some think Fed chief Ben Bernanke could halt the roaring commodities rally by keeping rates steady. But most think the Fed will cut rates again. - more

  Serious questions need to be asked about how much of a mining “major” Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Vale) (RIO) really is the wake of its failed bid for Xstrata . - more (comment - just because we link to a particular article, does not mean we agree with it)

  Daily London Metal Exchange inventory figures posted here   (charts)

  Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 239500-241000 RMB/t, minus 250   (charts)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - posted here (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 312 to 8,862. (chart)
• Nickel inventories - if interested in learning about yesterday's movements in LME stored nickel inventories, you can find the statistics here
• Forbes headline "Tin sets new record high on supply concerns, but dollar rebound weighs". Standard Bank analysts Leon Westgate summed up metals trading, as quoted in Forbes, 'Except for tin, base metals have been treading water over the past week, bobbing along with the waves emanating from the currency markets.'  With the other base metals getting much more attention than nickel these days, and news about nickel a little lean, we thought we would share the following.
• This site links to a daily chart, that if you have never visited, is well worth the time, if you are interested in what is happening on the LME trading floor. Trading is a fascinating and confusing art, and for those of who do not trade, but are still directly affected by how they operate, it's helpful to know as much about what motivates them, as we can. Occasionally, you will see this site mention, or a newspaper report, about price movements being 'technically' motivated. Please read this disclaimer first. I have NO official training, don't know any LME traders, never met one, never talked to one. I have seen them visiting the site over the years, but have had, no do I have, any direct contact with anyone affiliated with the London Metal Exchange, or anyone in London, as far as I know. And borrowed from a Barry Ritzhold article, "The author states that no one has any real idea what's going to happen in the future, and hereby declares that any prediction or forecast made on, or linked to, from this site, is merely a wildly unsupported speculation." Are we covered? The following is based on personal observation only and is probably as worthless as boobs on a bull frog. Here is the chart by Nimit Khamar chart, and you can find a link to it daily besides the 'link to the official closing prices'. Chart traders love this type of information, as it can "sometimes" tell them which way the winds may be turning. Last week, we explained why we had felt something might be brewing as the TL4 and TL2 lines were converging and nickel trading's "comfortable" range was getting squeezed . You can check our archives for the entry on the 16th to see what this chart looked like the day before it popped. As you can see by today's chart, which covers the trading range thru yesterday, we are possibly heading into another squeeze, which currently appears to converge around the $28,500-$28,600 mark. I would call this 'weak' support, with Ed Meir's from MF Global, putting strong support at $27,800/tonne, in his daily report. With no major news about nickel making the papers since the Colombia strike, and the inventories that are held in LME warehouses, appearing not to mean nearly as much to traders as they probably should, the market appears to be using the charts, and the Dollar/Euro ratio to guide it. If the market stays true to the chart, nickel should have traded in a range between a low of approx $28,400 to a high of approx $29,700 tonne today (between the  TL2 and TL4 lines). We will have to wait to see tomorrow's chart update to see if it did. And if it did, it's worth watching to see how the market reacts as the price of nickel enters into another 'squeeze". My apologies to those readers who actually study and understand how  these charts work, and might now be wondering from what planet I originate from.
• According to the indicator charts, nickel rose early, lost for much of the day, than recovered slightly at the end. According to the Dow Jones report we have linked to, three month nickel ended the day at $ 12.98/lb .          
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more

  Uncertainty resulting from the global economic turmoil has increased but has so far not had any major impact on stainless steel fundamentals, but there is "an increasing risk that the uncertainty might affect both demand and price development of stainless steel going forward," Finnish steel producer Outokumpu said Wednesday. - more

  Commodity markets regulator, Forward Markets Commission (FMC), is considering a ban on hedge funds and PE funds from trading on the country's commexes, a top Government official said. - more

  Rusmet reports European stainless steel surcharges for May  were mostly stabile, except for 400 series. 304 stainless surcharges were from up 3.8% to flat, depending on the manufacturer. 316 surcharges were up 1.9% to down 2.1%, while 430 stainless steel surcharges for May rose 11% to 32%.  

  BHP Billiton's takeover battle for Rio Tinto moved into increasingly hostile territory on Tuesday when BHP's chief executive launched an outspoken attack on his mining rival's past underperformance and growth prospects. - more

  (one of the co-owners of Norilsk Nickel) Mikhail Prokhorov -- whose wealth is estimated at around $22 billion -- plans to spend $150 million setting up a magazine, website and television station called Snob, the general director of the new venture told Reuters on Wednesday.- more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.18/lb lower.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• Recycling International Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, April 2008 - here
• Standard Bank Market Comments - here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "The dollar breached the 1.60 mark against the Euro yesterday, and led to another round of frenzied buying in many commodity complexes with energy, gold, and base metals all pushing higher....The dollar is stronger today, and back below the 1.60 mark, and this could also be contributing to the pause we are seeing in most metals. However, we see no reason why metals cannot pick up a head of steam again. In this regard, our RSI readings, a measure of overbought/oversold conditions, are still mainly neutral (except for tin). More importantly, the dollar could start to sell off again, as having broken 1.60, speculators could try to drag it down even lower. The only variable we see that conceivably could break the short dollar /long commodities trading strategy that seems to be the modus operandi in the markets these days, is for the central banks to intervene and support the dollar. In the least, this move would wrong-foot the speculators, and force many commodity prices to come back down to earth. Certainly, the wording in the latest G-7 communiqué left the door opened for such a possibility, and we think such a move is long overdue.... Nickel is at $28,710, down $190, and quiet." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Markus Moll in Metal Center News - comment - We posted a story last Friday of the presentation Mr Moll gave at the Metals Service Center Institute's Specialty Metals Conference in March. For those of you who might have missed it, Mr Moll brings up some very interesting acts that are worth repeating. As quoted in Metal Center News - “Globalization is not increasing in this business (stainless steel),” Moll said. “On the contrary, it’s going down. It’s more of a regional business, where the majority of the material is being used where it’s produced.....The cost of stainless steel produced in China is actually higher than the cost leader in Europe, when transportation, agent commission and risk factors are taken into account.....Moreover, he said, manufacturers must be able to answer five questions positively before substitution is worthwhile: * Is the price of stainless steel important in production? * Would a new material provide a competitive advantage? * Are there easily available substitution alternatives? * Does the substitution material meet the standards? * And does the price difference outweigh the costs of change? For most companies, the answer to at least one or two of those questions would be no. The waning substitution threat, coupled with the shrinking price gap, is leading to what Moll called, “the renaissance of 304.” (much more in the online version here)

  Outokumpu Oyj, the world's fourth- biggest stainless-steel maker, declined the most in more than six years in Helsinki trading after first-quarter profit missed analyst estimates. - more

  Asian stainless steel cold rolled pricing continues to remain strong; although China’s domestic stainless steel market remains quiet. - more

  BHP Billiton Ltd posted strong quarterly iron ore and oil output figures Wednesday but a mixture of strikes, bad weather and power shortages saw coking coal, nickel and aluminum output fall. - more

  The prices of nickel-based stainless steel scrap ( new clippings ) purchased by stainless steel mills and dealers to collect this scrap during late March to early April were not even depending on areas and have been confused but, in view of an anxiety for production of stainless steel in the near future, a basic tone to weaken price of stainless steel scrap is finally permeating into the market from the beginning of this week. - more

  Daily London Metal Exchange inventory figures posted here (charts)

  Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 239000-242000 RMB/t, plus 2000  (charts)

  Mumbai nickel price - here

• Official LME nickel closing prices - posted here (chart) (thanks to an employee from Reuters for advising us that LME posts official prices on their own web site about the same time we used to.) 
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 200 to 8,550. (chart)
• Nickel inventories - if interested in learning about yesterday's movements in nickel inventories, you can find the statistics here
• The headline from the International Herald Tribune issued an ominous warning to metals buyers today "Dollar slumps to new record low versus euro". European aircraft builder Airbus announced that the falling dollar and higher metal prices were responsible for it increasing its prices on all its large passenger jets today. The Superjumbo A380 rose by a cool $4 million US dollars overnight. Metals, for the most part, were rather placid early, but the above news gave a boost, and all, precious and base, were trading in the green. Copper was helped by a Chilean strike, while tin hit a new record high on dwindling stocks, as did oil. Nickel went along for the ride, helped by the retreat in the dollar. When we looked at the indicator charts this morning, nickel appeared to be struggling to hold onto prior gains, but after the dollar slumped, the struggle was over, and nickel returned to gaining. According to the Dow Jones daily report linked to below, three month nickel ended the day at $13.09/lb .
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more
• Thompson Financial metals news - more
• Here is a little cartoon for you Baby Boomers - here

  Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "The metals markets are in the early stages of a long-term secular market, says Bradley George, head of global commodities and resources at Investec Asset Management. Notes there will inevitably be short-term downtrends within this period, but the bullish cycle is set to last a further 15-20 years. The fundamentals, and not the funds, are driving commodities, he adds, ....."

  Economic and steel market outlook 2008-2009 - The April ’08 Report from EUROFER’s Economic Committee - pdf here

• MEPS - EU Steel Prices Soar Again Prompting Buyers to Seek Foreign Imports - more

  AK Steel Holding Corp said on Tuesday that first-quarter profit rose more than 60 percent, helped by rising prices. - more

  Spanish stainless steel maker Acerinox posted better-than-expected first-quarter results on Tuesday, painting a bright outlook for the rest of the year. - more

  Courtesy MSN Money - (blurb only) Mechel Steel reports its Q1 operational results; coal rose 60% YoY Co announces its operational results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2008. Coal rose 60% YoY, iron ore concentrate rose 6% YoY, nickel rose 7% YoY, steel rose 5% YoY and electric power generation rose 157% YoY. (comment - recent increases in iron ore and steel were not yet reflected in 1st quarter results)

  Macquarie Capital Securities has forecast that the physical tightness of many commodities is expected to persist into the next decade, keeping prices well above normal for the long term. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.11/lb higher. Indicators show nickel trading went north early on, but has stumbled a few times since, and is fighting to hold onto its gains. BBC News posts delayed prices on all of the LME traded base metals. We have added a new link to the right hand column under the Kitco price graph for those who might find it useful.  
• Bloomberg morning metals news - more
• AFX News morning metals news - more
• Globe and Mail morning metals news - more
• Forbes morning metals news - more

  Reports

• TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price report - pdf here
• IISI March 2008 Crude Steel Production - pdf here
• Standard Bank Market Comment - here
• China Mar Base Metals Trade Table Of Data - here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -"We are making up for yesterday’s puzzling action in today’s session, with metals up impressively...  The dollar is now trading at 1.5950, and not far off the all-time low of $1.5983 reached on April 17. It could receive more direction when March existing home sales data comes out of the US later today, (expected at 4.9 mln units). For now, the prospect of fresh lows in the US currency, coupled with the unsettled Chilean labor dispute, should combine to keep the metals rally going via a stronger copper complex. And, of course, there is no stopping the energy markets, which continue to push higher, casting a bullish shadow over metals.... Nickel is at $28,700, up $250, and quiet; the complex continues to drift in sideways fashion." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)

  MMC Norilsk Nickel sold $640 million in nickel to China in 2007 and expects sales to increase in 2008, Norilsk Nickel General Director Denis Morozov said during a meeting in Beijing with officials from stainless steel manufacturers. - more

• General Director of OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (Norilsk Nickel or the Company) Denis Morozov made a working visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). - more

  Nippon Steel Corp will seek a price increase of nearly 40 percent from automakers and other customers for its main steel products to offset soaring raw materials costs, the Nikkei business daily reported on Tuesday. - more

  In a bid to leverage the increased demand of stainless steel pipes and tubes, Ahmedabad-based Suraj Stainless Ltd plans to set up a new seamless steel pipes and tubes manufacturing plant, the company’s fourth, at Kadi near Mehsana in Gujarat. - more

• The stainless steel industry is keen to not be seen as part of the steel industry, so that it can escape export curbs. The industry body has written to the finance minister and the steel minister explaining how stainless steel makers are not contributing to inflation. - more
• India’s Orissa Mining Corporation has increased its April to June 2008 quarter chromium ore prices by 33% to INR 18,250 per tonne duty paid. - more

  Copyright/courtesy AISI - "In the week ending April 19, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,154,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 90.3 percent. Production was 2,113,000 tons in the week ending April 19, 2007, while the capability utilization then was 88.3 percent. The current week production represents a 1.9 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending April 19, 2008 is up 0.9 percent from the previous week ending April 12, 2008 when production was 2,134,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 89.4 percent."

  Daily London Metal Exchange inventory figures posted here   (charts)

  Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 238000-240000 RMB/t, minus 1000   (charts)

  Mumbai nickel price - here

• Official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $12.99/lb 3 month buyer - $13.11/lb 10.08% higher than 12/31/07) (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 147 to 8,350. (chart)
• LME nickel inventories - plus 24 tonnes from Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 66 tonnes from Baltimore, MD, USA warehouse
• Site Update - This site was started with the sole purpose of providing relevant information to those in the stainless steel industry, so that readers could make well informed decisions. Thanks in large part to the actions of a major Canadian nickel mining company, a small daily blog posted on an employer's web site was discontinued, and estainlesssteel.com became the site you see today. As the number of visitors grew, it became more apparent that readers were very interested in what was happening on the London Metal Exchange, the world hub for the establishment of daily nickel prices. While LME publishes numerous prices daily, this site posts the beginning inventory and official prices, well after having obtained the information from publicly available (no password required) internet sites. For instance, LME official prices are usually publicly available before, or shortly after, the morning update is posted. Inventory data is sometimes available 8 hours before it is posted here. This information was posted as a public service as news, and was never meant to "harm" anyone. Apparently it has. I received a call from an individual about a month ago, advising that his website was paying the London Metal Exchange a "million dollars a year" for such information, and advised we would be getting a "cease and desist" order from the LME. Reviewing the web site that this individual claimed he was representing, it was determined that, while well ranked in Alexa (meaning it gets a lot more visitors than this one does), it contained absolutely no original news content, or comment, and was nothing more than a cut-and-paste operation of story's from international news web sites, and "respected" metals web sites (all available for free to the general public on their original sites). And since the LME information on this site was limited to the cut and paste of the daily Dow Jones end of day report that we "link to" under "Closing Metals Report", it was considered to be no more than a prank call. Three weeks later, and last Thursday, I received the following from the London Metal Exchange. "It has come to the LME's attention that a number of LME prices (Nickel Official Prices) and Warehouse Stocks are published on your website on a same-day basis. The LME would like to point out that any redistribution of LME data, irrespective of publication delay, is subject to a data distribution agreement between the distributor (ie your organisation) and the LME. We also note that the LME does not have a redistribution agreement in place with your organisation." Over the weekend, I downloaded the application form but never made it past the pages of rules and regulations. And while I had no idea the prices posted on here were anything but "old news", it is not this site's desire to violate any copyright rules, no matter how overly restrictive they might appear. Nor is it my desire to see this site handcuffed in its analysis of market conditions, nor what it can say about the "few" that determine the direction for the many. And thus, effective tomorrow, Tuesday, April 22nd, this site is forced to discontinue posting the LME daily official prices, and the daily total tonnage/cancelled tonnage numbers. However, by U.S. law, this site can link you directly to other public sites/pages that post Dow Jones Newswire stories that contain far more pricing than we ever have.  I apologize to any readers who might find this change inconvenient.
• Life is far too short to go looking for controversy, and I am old enough to understand, that while our daily lives are spent around financial matters, inevitably in the end, it is faith, family and friends are all that really matter. We will all be fertilizer for the flowers soon enough.
• Daily comment - Analyzing multiple indicator charts, it appears nickel trading drifted in early trading, but was unable to hold on for the duration of the day and closed slightly lower. According to a Dow Jones report, nickel ended the day at $12.90/lb  .   
• Closing Metals Report from Dow Jones - more

  Thanks to the reader from the Nickel Institute that advised us of the typo error SteelGuru.com used in the story we linked to this morning. The feeder line we gave should read "China's largest nickel producer Jinchuan Group aims to produce 120,000 tonnes of nickel products in 2008" not "China's largest nickel producer Jinchuan Group aims to produce 120,000 million tonnes of nickel products in 2008". We corrected the feeder on our end, but be advised, you may see something different on the author's site.

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling up around $.02/lb . Nickel is having a hard time finding its footing today, slipping in and out of the red.
• Bloomberg - more

  Reports

• Haywood Securities Metals & Mining Weekly - pdf here
• Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc Market Report - pdf here
• Standard Bank Meal Comment - more
• (India) Steel World News Digest -