Daily Nickel Market Prices

So why do I think Xstrata and Local 598 will avoid a strike? First, and most importantly, everyone involved in the nickel mining industry is making 'extra' money right now. That includes the stock-holders, the managers, and the guys down in the mines. Production at most mines is going 'flat out', with every pound of nickel mined selling for seven times what it did just a few years ago. Allowing a strike to stop production at this point carries multiple risks, especially when nearly half of your corporate production could be affected. While prices would likely go even higher with a strike, if you are shipping less nickel, you aren't reaping the benefits of the current windfall, and you could watch your competitors reap the new windfall your strike would bring about. (that would be kind of like CSTNC striking against SLN when their complaints were against a competitor, CVRD-Inco, frustrating to say the least) And secondly, declaring force majeure at this point of the bull ride, carries extra risks. Many of those who follow the market closely, are forecasting 2008 could look a lot different than 2007, when it comes to available supply of nickel. We are witnessing the part of the cycle when, as prices rise, new money pours into exploration and new site development, and inevitably, this rush will bring on a period when supply exceeds demand and prices will falter. With new suppliers coming on the scene in the near future, hungry for customers, now is not the best time to annoy those customers you have, by putting them in the position to scramble for nickel, when it isn't in surplus.(For those who would use Inco and last years strike at Voisey's Bay to dispute my theory, I would saw the situation was much different, and that Inco, with their 'new' source of nickel, was not in the same predicament Xstrata is. And what about the strike vote? Of course, they gave their leadership a strike mandate. The strike mandate is the union telling Xstrata we can play hardball if we need to. If you didn't, it would be like a used car salesman telling you "this is our absolute and final best offer.....but it's negotiable" ) Thirdly, with mines worldwide suffering from a lack of trained employees, any union representing experienced miners and smelter professionals, especially one in Canada with the nearby Oil Sands projects offering great wages, should carefully consider whether its membership's loyalty to its union, is as strong as their commitment to putting food on the table for their family. Thus, in this case, especially in this case, it is in both sides mutual interest to find common ground. Therefore, it is my humble opinion, that negotiations will go down to the wire (no use settling early when you know the price of nickel will probably drop as soon as you settle), but that before the current contract expires, the two sides will reach an agreement. (Then again, I predicted nickel would peak at $6/lb, no not $16, six - so you get what you pay for) (For those who wish to take issue with this, please remember opinions are like armpits. We all have a couple, and if they smelled half as good to those around us, as we think they should, there would be no need for the billion dollar deodorant industry! And you can take that from a guy who lost water for a week!!)
  The cargo ship we mentioned earlier this week, that had been abandoned and was reportedly sinking, will be run aground to keep it from sinking. BUT the company has told Reuters that there is only 160 tons of nickel on board, not the 1000 tons as they reported earlier. More here
  We post links to, what we think, are the best nickel related daily reports in our left column. But there are reports out there that we do not, or can not, link to daily. Some of you might find them helpful so we will periodically give you some on the weekend updates. This blog is free and therefore, only links to sites and articles that are free. Please bookmark those you like.
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  Daily Osaka nickel prices link here   (and)   the Central Japan Commodity Exchange here
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