Strike looms at
Xstrata Nickel's Greater Sudbury operations - A strike at Xstrata Nickel's
Greater Sudbury's operations seems to be a certainty as the midnight Sunday
deadline approaches. -
more
Chromite prospects
stirring excitement - With the formal acquisition this week of one of the
key chromite deposits among the remote Ring of Fire properties northeast
of Thunder Bay, U.S. iron-ore giant Cliffs Resources positioned itself as
the most likely company to build the mine everyone‘s been talking about.
-
more
Clive Palmer
refines fortunes at Yabulu Nickel refinery - Queens'and's richest man Clive
Palmer has been credited with a phenomenal multimillion-dollar turnaround
at Townsville's near-mothballed Yabulu Nickel refinery. -
more
CAW Local
598 removes Friday's news update to members stating "miles apart" from website.
Noteworthy or nothing?
(Saturday)
(most recent)
UPDATE from late Saturday -
pdf here
UPDATE from
late Friday - CAW negotiating committee reports "miles apart" in Sudbury
talks with Xstrata -
news release here in pdf
Xstrata Sudbury
labor talks go down to the wire - Contract talks between Xstrata and workers
at its main Canadian mining operation look set to go down to the wire ahead
of Sunday's strike deadline. -
more
Year End
2009 China Import Statistics (Top 10 exporting countries to China)
Imports of chrome ore - Total 6.755 million tons - (#1) South Africa - 38.9%
(#2) Turkey - 19% (#3) Oman - 7.1% (#4) India - 6.1% (#5) Pakistan (#6)
Mozambique (#7) Iran (#8) Albania (#9) UAE (#10) Madagascar
Imports of ferrochrome - Total 2.175 million tons - (#1) South Africa
- 44.1% (#2) Kazakhstan - 28.9% (#3) India - 15.6% (#4) Mozambique (#5) Turkey
(#6) Netherlands (#7) South Korea (#8) Hong Kong (#9) Belgium (#10) Russian
Federation
Imports of nickel ore - Total 16.42 million tons - (#1) Philippines - 53%
(#2) Indonesia - 43.5% (#3) Australia - 1.3% (#4) Russian Federation (#5)
Spain (#6) South Africa (#7) Zambia (#8) Finland (#9) South Korea (#10) Taiwan
Imports of ferro-nickel - Total 228 thousand tons - (#1) Japan - 30.9% (#2)
Colombia - 30.4% (#3) New Caledonia - 15.5% (#4) South Korea - 7.6% (#5)
Ukraine (#6) Brazil (#7) Indonesia (#8) France (#9) Egypt (#10) Mexico
Soaring Base
Metals Stockpiles - Ever since its secular bull kicked off in 2003, the
once-boring base-metals sector took on an aura of excitement. -
more(note - good article but gives an incorrect statement about nickel. The
article states "LME nickel stockpiles are currently more than double the
previous high point since 1998, when the LME started logging daily data."
In fact, nickel began trading on the LME in 1979, and until December of last
year, the LME had recorded an all time record high of 151,254 tonnes.)
Striking Voisey's
Bay workers burn proposed contracts at union rally - Striking Voisey’s
Bay workers met in Goose Bay this morning to talk about the latest offer
from Vale Inco and to march in protest. -
more
Norilsk Eyes $2
Billion 2009 Profit After Loss: Reports - Russia's metals giant Norilsk Nickel
expects to book a $2 billion net profit for last year after it ended 2008
with a loss of $449 million, Russian media reported on Saturday. -
more
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Toyota Shrinks the World's Biggest
Carmaker to Regain Control Over Quality // Subbarao Says India Economic
Growth Gaining Momentum, Raises Reserve Ratio // Asia Stocks Slump, Euro
Drops on Rising Greek Deficit, U.S. Unemployment // EU Has No `Plan B' to
Support Greece, Country Won't Default, Almunia // Greek Bond Yields Show
Waning Investor Faith EU Nation Will Avoid Bailout // European Inflation
Accelerates to Fastest in Almost a Year on Cold Weather // Spain to Announce
Budget Deficit Cut Plan, Seeking to Avoid Greece's Fate // Toyota May Recall
1.8 Million Vehicles in Europe as It Fixes Eight Models // European Stocks
Climb on U.S. GDP Report; BMW, Infineon Rally on Forecasts // Dollar
to Benefit as Greece Faces Potential `Stone Age,' United-ICAP Says // Economy
in U.S. Expanded at a 5.7% Annual Pace, Biggest Gain in Six Years // Stocks
in U.S. Fluctuate as Declines in Technology Shares Offset GDP Data
The US Dollar strengthened on the heels of the US GDP report this morning
and is now trading over 6/10 of 1% higher. NYMEX crude is ignoring the GDP
report and consumer confidence increase and is down nearly 6/10 of 1% and
under $73.50/barrel. Gold is down nearly 1/2 of 1% and silver is lower by
the same. Base metals got whacked again on China credit concerns, and an
ever higher Dollar. Only nickel bucked the trend on strike concerns.
Indicator charts show three month nickel spent much of the morning on the
rise, until mid afternoon, when it cooled own some. Dow Jones reports three
month nickel ended the day, the week and the first month of 2010, at
$8.39/lb. December ended at
$8.41/lb so for the ending days we did not see much overall gain. But by
our unofficial figures, the average price of cash nickel increased from $7.72/lb
in Dec 2009 to around $8.36/lb this month, a substantial increase. Working
nickel miners can thank the Sudbury strike for much of this, and the threat
of another potential strike in the same town. Inventories of nickel stored
in LME approved warehouses rose substantially overnight, to another all time
record high, and now sit shy of the 165,000 tonne level. Sucden's day old
chart shows traders resistance to follow the overall base metals downward
trend
(chart here). As stated this morning, traders appear
to be betting there will be another nickel strike starting this weekend in
Sudbury at the Xstrata operations. In our opinion, that is a risky bet. If
both sides had come to an agreement earlier in the week, they are both smart
enough to know an immediate announcement could have an adverse effect on
the market price, while no news builds up market tension among traders, typically
driving the price higher, as we have seen the last few days. We may be wrong,
and have been numerous times before, but we expect the two sides to resolve
any differences and come to an agreement by the Sunday deadline. If either
side needs a reason to agree, all they have to do is look across town. The
Baltic Dry Index slipped another 115 points. Even though US 4th quarter GDP
numbers came in better than expected, and the Reuters/University of Michigan
consumer sentiment index rose to a two year high, Wall Street has been in
a choppy mood this morning, with the bulls trying to pull the weeks momentum
away from the bears.
Have a safe and pleasant weekend, and if we have internet access, we will
attempt to update the site as soon as we an update from the Xstrata/CAW talks.
Norilsk raises
2010 nickel output forecast - Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest nickel
and palladium producer, said on Friday it had raised its nickel output forecast
for this year to 299,000-309,000 tonnes from a previous outlook of 300,000
tonnes. -
more
Vale Inco should
present details of its business plan -- Point of View (Vale Inco's strategy
document now online) - Vale Inco has an opportunity to improve the level
of discourse in the community about the labour dispute with the United
Steelworkers Local 6500. -
more
"The pricing on
the nickel market is irrational" - January 2010 nickel is in the futures
markets since December of last year, has become dearer by up to 125 percent.
A ton of the industrial metal cost at the London Metals Exchange on Wednesday,
slightly more than $ 19,000. -
translated from German here(thanks to a reader)
Alliance has
advantages for both Anglo and African Nickel - The nickel alliance agreement
between min- ing junior African Nickel and one of the world’s largest
diversified miners, Anglo American, is proving to be mutually beneficial
to both companies, reports African Nickel. -
more
Mining industry
guilty of ignoring climate risks - New report finds that only a handful of
mining firms have plans in place to address climate change, despite the industry
being at high risk of disruption from changing climatic conditions -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.20/lb
higher, with other
base metals mostly trading lower this morning. The US Dollar is trading slightly
higher against the Euro, up less than 1/10 of 1%. NYMEX crude is up 1/10
of 1% and under $74/barrel. Gold has opened slightly lower while silver is
slighter higher at the moment. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended
lower with China only slightly off. European markets are higher this morning,
and futures show Wall Street is betting on a strong 4th quarter GDP report
today. LME inventories took another large bounce into new record territory
overnight, and the BDI lost another 115 points. LME nickel traders
appear to be betting Local 598 will strike against Xstrata's Sudbury nickel
operation this weekend. US govt just reported 4th quarter GDP came in at
+5.7% annual pace against an expected 5.4% gain. 2009 overall GDP fell 2.4%,
the most in 63 years.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices were walloped
on Thursday, with copper losing 5% of the day, and plunging to a five-week
low, while aluminum dropped to a seven-week low. Zinc and lead fared even
worse, hitting multi-month lows. In addition to the usual fundamental factors
that have been weighing on metals over the last few days, the selling was
exacerbated by the fact that long-term upchannels in several complexes were
broken, presumably leading to a series of sell stops being hit. We highlighted
some of these trend breakdowns in yesterday’s note. The dollar was also
a key bearish factor yesterday, as it busted through the 1.40 level against
the Euro and got to as high of 1.3915 at one point. Dampening sentiment further,
US equities were mostly negative after Obama's State of the Union speech,
with the Dow down almost 200 points before closing off by 115 points. Ben
Bernanke’s renomination did not have much of an impact either, as his
passage was seen as safe, and therefore discounted by the jittery markets.
.... Nickel is at $18,500, up $150, and having not risen much in the
first place, is one of two metals (along with tin) that have come out of
this latest selloff with relatively little damage. (read Ed Meir's
complete morning base metals report
here)
(MB) China Steel Australia takes 45,000T nickel pig iron order
Some Distributors Not So Quick to Declare 'Recovery' -
more
General Review
Of Stainless Steel In 2009 And Its Outlook For New Year = China Jumped Up
To World First Place In Production Of Stainless Steel With Threat To Expand
Further Facilities - The world production of stainless steel in 2009 passed
over the year as China was the sole winner and an expansion in Chinese production
of stainless steel for 2010 will be unable to achieve such high rate as that
in 2009 (increased by 25% from that in 2008) but is anticipated to have a
moderate increase of 10 - 11% from that in 2009. -
more
Wanted: Owner of 2.5
tons of steel - Immigration officials are looking for the owner of 2.5 tons
of stainless steel that was seized in Cincinnati because it was being shipped
to Iran without U.S. government approval. -
more
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
BHP pushes iron ore growth to ride China boom - BHP Billiton Ltd, the world's
biggest miner, has approved $1.93 billion in capital expenses to expedite
an expansion of its Australian iron ore business to keep pace with growing
demand for the commodity from Chinese steelmakers. -
more
China's iron ore import dependency hits 69% - Zhu Hongren, spokesperson for
the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) disclosed during
a press conference held January 27 that China imported a total of 630 million
tons of iron ore in 2009, up 41.6 percent year-on-year, and the iron ore
import dependency ratio has increased from 44 percent in 2002 to 69 percent.
-
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Li & Fung Signs Deal With Walmart
That May Cover $2 Billion Worth of Goods // Toyota Plunges as Expanded
5.3 Million Recall of Vehicles Tarnishes Image // Tata Steel Third-Quarter
Net Income More Than Doubles, Beating Estimates // Hyundai Motor Profit
Quadruples as Tax Cuts Spur Global, Korea Auto Sales // Asian Stocks, High-Yield
Currencies Rally on Fed Outlook; Bonds Fall, Oil Climbs // U.K. Government's
`Huge' Bank Sales Will Surpass Thatcher's Privatizations // European Confidence
in Economy Rose for 10th Month in January on Recovery // Papandreou Says
Greece Is Victim of `Rumors,' Denies Seeking Financial Aid // European Stocks
Decline as BHP, AstraZeneca Drop; Nokia, H&M Shares Climb // Ford Posts
$2.7 Billion Annual Profit After Record Loss, Beats Estimates // Fed Declares
Recovery for First Time, Prepares Ground for End to Stimulus // Durables
Orders Rise as U.S. Jobless Claims Point to Labor Market Weakness // Stocks
in U.S. Fall as Qualcomm, Apple Lead Declines in Technology Shares
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, now up by 4/10
of 1% and under 1.40. NYMEX crude is trading nearly 3/4 of 1% lower and hanging
onto $73/barrel. Gold is down over 3/4 of 1%, while silver is off 3%.
Base metals got whacked again today, with nickel being the only gainer. Indicator
charts show three month nickel spent most of the session digging out of the
cellar, went positive and remained there until the session ended, then collapsed.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.32/lb
, but did
fall into negative territory afterwards. Inventories of nickel stored
in LME approved warehouses slipped off their record high overnight and now
stand just over the 163,500 tonne level. Sucden has updated its day old nickel
trading chart and you can see the price has closed under support (the red
line), for two consecutive days
(chart here). For those who trade strictly off charts,
this would normally be a sell signal, and while other base metals fell today,
nickel should hold its own as long as Xstrata and its Sudbury union continue
their talks to avert a strike. Their current contract expires Sunday, so
after that, all bets are off. Media personnel may not like it, but both sides
in these negotiations deserve a lot of credit for keeping their talks behind
closed doors and out of the public opinion polls. The strike between Vale
and the USW is showing signs of starting to wear on both sides. After the
abrupt ending to last weeks attempt at a sit down between Vale and their
Voisey's Bay union, it would appear there is no end in sight for these two
sides. Both sides appear to have their heels dug in pretty deep. The Baltic
Dry Index fell 155 points and slipped under 3000 to 2,963. The BDI used
to be a much more important indicator than it is these days, with an over
abundance of ships skewing the index, but it is still worth watching. US
government reported that first time filings for state unemployment benefits
fell 8,000 to 470,000, but remained well above analysts expectations. Continuing
claims for state benefits fell 57,000 to 4.60 million, but according to
MarketWatch "Economists do not believe the lower level of continuing claims
is a signal of improvement in the labor market since much of it has been
due to the exhaustion of eligibility for regular benefits." MarketWatch also
reported "Orders for durable goods increased 0.3% in December to $167.9 billion
after a revised 0.4% decline in November that was initially reported as a
0.2% gain." Say that three times real fast!! Wall Street has not been in
a good mood most of the morning, but the media just reported recently that
the Senate has the votes to get Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke re-appointed, and
the Dow is now well off its earlier 1-1/2% dip.
The MEPS global
steel price jumps 3 percent in January - A flurry of mill price hike
announcements in December has translated into substantially higher transaction
values for business recently settled in the US. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.05/lb
lower, with all base
metals trading lower for a second morning. The US Dollar is trading higher
against the Euro, up over 1/10 of 1% at the moment. NYMEX crude futures are
up by 8/10 of 1% this morning and at $74.25/barrel. Gold has opened at 2/10
of 1% higher and silver is trading higher by the same. In overnight trading,
Asian markets finally ended higher, with China up 1/4 of 1%. European markets
are trading higher this morning as European confidence in the economic outlook
improved in January. And US futures are showing Wall Street should open in
a good mood, after the Fed described the US economy in "recovery" for the
first time yesterday in their meeting statement. Nickel inventories slipped
overnight, as did the BDI, down 155 points.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals continued their
plunge on Wednesday, as the dollar extended its gains against the Euro after
the Federal Reserve policy statement came in with a slightly more upbeat
tone than expected, perhaps a harbinger of tighter credit conditions down
the road. In this regard, the Fed said that there was an improvement in US
business spending, adding that the recovery would be "moderate for a time."
Ever since April, the Fed had been saying economic activity would be "weak
for a time” indicating that officials believe a recovery is now sustainable.
On the rate front, the Fed repeated its earlier statement that conditions
are "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate
for an extended period". Significantly, one of its members voted against
the Fed's decision, claiming that economic conditions had changed enough
so that the continued expectation of low rates was "no longer warranted."
It was the first dissenting vote among policy makers since January 2009.
The Fed also said -- as previously announced --that it would be closing several
loan facilities having to do with asset-backed commercial paper, a primary
dealer credit facility, and a term securities lending facility. The temporary
liquidity swap arrangements between the Fed and other central banks will
also expire on February 1. .... As the stars line up for a stronger dollar
in the short-term, we could find the metals complex under further pressure.
Also of concern to the metal bulls, is that key long-term trend-line support
levels in copper and ali - the last two holdouts - have now been taken out,
and should there not be a snap-back above the line over the next 24 hours,
we could push somewhat lower from here. .... Nickel is at $18,150, down $45,
and on track to test the bottom end of the trading range at $17,320 if $18,000
support is taken out decisively for two days running." (read Ed Meir's
complete morning base metals report
here)
(Yieh) Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco) has announced a price
rise of US$50~150/ton for stainless steel exports for the first half of February.
The company’s domestic prices for 304 grade stainless steel will remain
unchanged, while prices for 430 will increase by NT$1,500/ton. The price
rise is triggered by higher nickel prices and improved demand, according
to the company.
Desjardins Securities analyst John Redstone told Metals Pages he forecasts
molybdenum to reach $30/lb in 2011.
(SBB) Roskill said strong demand for molybdenum will allow producers to increase
prices and they forecast prices to reach $17/lb in 2010, rise over $20/lb
in 2011 and reach $40/lb by 2014 if a deficit appears in the market.
(ISI) Rusal does not rule out merger with Norilsk Nickel, shareholder says
(SO) The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has decided to extend the time limit
for the preliminary results of the antidumping (AD) duty administrative review
on stainless steel bar from Brazil.
(Dow Jones) South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state agency that
stockpiles strategic commodities, has tendered for 300 metric tons of LME
brand nickel, 99.8% purity or higher. The tender closes Feb. 2 at 0500 GMT
and the metal is for delivery to Incheon by Feb. 28 on a cost and freight
basis.
(Reuters) China's power consumption in January is on track to post a record
rise of more than 30 percent from a year ago, and faster-than-expected growth
of 9 percent for the whole of 2010, media and a power industry body said.
Rusal's rising fortune at Mr. Putin's pleasure -
more
POSCO raises
stainless steel prices from Feb - South Korea's POSCO, the world's No.4
steelmaker, said on Thursday it would raise prices of its stainless steel
products by up to 3.3 percent due to rising raw material prices. -
more
General Review
Of Nickel In 2009 And Its Outlook For New Year -(Part 2) Nevertheless, reflecting
the extremely risen nickel price as seen in 2007 and 2008, consumers left
from nickel and this case caused to change the composition in consumption
of raw materials for production of stainless steel, having resulted in a
fall of nickel price. -
more
Analysis of Large
Price Corrections in China Base Metals Market - The previous bullish sentiment
for the global economy has been overshadowed by a string of unfavorable news.
The Chinese Central Bank's moves to raise the yield of three-month bills
and deposit requirement reserve ratio triggered market concerns of waning
demand in China. -
more
Nickel’s
fate depends on China - Nickel prices largely depend on global steel
demand, which is low in the west and up in China and India now.-
more
Mincor downgrades
production target - Nickel miner Mincor Resources NL has modestly downgraded
its full year production target. -
more
ZIMASCO to double
ferro-chrome output - Midlands-based ferro-chrome producer, Zimasco plans
to upgrade and refurbish key plant in order to ramp-up production and take
advantage of firming prices in the global stainless steel market.
- more
China's Jinchuan
takes piece of Tanzania project - Tanzanian Royalty Exploration , a
Toronto-listed metals explorer, said on Wednesday that China's Jinchuan Mining
has agreed to become a partner in the junior's Kabanga nickel properties
in northwestern Tanzania. -
more
MMG chief sounds
warning on new mining tax - The chief of Minerals and Metals Group has warned
that changes to the tax regime affecting the mining industry, reportedly
proposed by the Henry review, could "kill the goose that lays the golden
eggs".
- more
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Vale has bankers praying for Inco spinoff - This is probably wishful thinking,
but a strategic shift into fertilizer at Vale SA has Canadian investment
bankers hoping, even praying, that the Brazilian conglomerate may spin off
its nickel mining assets. -
more
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Japan's Exports Rise First Time in
15 Months, Topping Economist Estimates // Rusal Shares Drop in Hong Kong's
First IPO in 2010 as Market Declines 12% // Australian Consumer Prices Rise,
Spurring Currency Gain on Rate Pressure // Toyota Halts U.S. Sale, Output
of Eight Models as Reputation `Tarnished // Asian Stocks, Metals Decline
as China Takes Steps to Curb Economic Growth // ECB May Reduce Economic Stimulus
Measures Before Second Half, Weber Says // Swiss Government Says It'll
Stick to UBS Agreement With U.S. After Ruling // Bank of England Plan Has
`Decent Chance' of Economic Impact, Besley Says // Greek Government New Five-Year
Bonds Tumble in Their First Day of Trading // European Shares Drop; National
Bank of Greece, BBVA, HeidelbergCement Fall // Caterpillar Net Tumbles 65%;
Forecast for 2010 Trails Analysts' Estimates // MBA Mortgage Applications
Index Fell 11% Last Week, First Drop in a Month // Geithner Defends Government
AIG Rescue Steps as TARP Watchdog Investigates // New Home Sales in U.S.
Unexpectedly Decline, Capping Worst Year on Record // Underwater Homeowners
May Get Help as U.S. Considers Mortgage-Plan Fixes // World Stock Index Falls
for Sixth Day as Greek Bonds Plunge; Dollar Gains
The US Dollar is trading nearly 1/4 of 1% higher against the Euro. NYMEX
crude futures are down 1/3 of 1% and under $74.50/barrel. Gold is down nearly
1.1% while silver is off over 1.8%. Base metals all ended the day lower.
Indicator charts show nickel slumped early, climbed back to even, then spiked
shortly before closing before falling back. Dow Jones reports three month
nickel ended the day about where it started, at
$8.25/lb, down a penny for
the day. LME approved warehouse stores of nickel rose over 1000 tonnes overnight,
and now sit well over the 163,500 tonne level, a new all time record high.
Sucden finally updated their day old nickel chart, showing recent LME trading
(chart here). The Baltic Dry Index dropped another 87
points. According to MF Global, Reuters has released its finding from a survey
of 57 metals analysts, who forecast a median price of $8.25/lb for 2010 nickel
pricing, and $8.65/lb for a 2011 median price. For the last few days, since
China started cracking down on credit, there has been a negative sentiment
brewing towards base metals, but as long as the outcome of the Xstrata union
negotiations remain in doubt, we see nickel making no major negative move.
Not totally convinced there wouldn't be more than a temporary dip if they
settle by this weekend. On the other hand, if they do strike Sunday night,
we could see a volatile week ahead.
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.11/lb
lower, with all base
metals lower at the moment. The US Dollar and Euro, at least for the moment,
aren't doing much with the US Dollar slightly ahead. NYMEX crude futures
are up 4/10 of 1% and at $75/barrel. Gold has opened 3/10 of 1% lower while
silver is off nearly 3/4 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended
lower, with China off 1-1/3%. European markets are lower this morning and
US futures show Wall Street might open lower. Nickel inventories soared to
a new record high overnight, while the BDI numbers have yet to be published.
World Crude Steel Production as of November 2009 -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals ended lower on Tuesday,
as the usual set of bearish influences continued to weigh on the markets.
These include questions about the credit situation in China, mixed macro
data out of the US, and a dollar that seems to be inching towards key resistance
of $1.40 against the Euro. Gauging investor appetite for commodities has
been also been called into question in the wake of President Obama's broadsides
against the banks and his desire to ring fence-- if not entirely eliminate
-- their trading activities. All these factors are eroding market sentiment
in a number of markets, and it remains to be seen whether Wednesday’s
Fed policy statement or President Obama's State of the Union address later
tonight will change sentiment in the days ahead. We have our doubts in this
regard, and the sharply weaker tone we are seeing in metals as of this writing
is perhaps suggesting the same. The dollar is also weighing on metals today
as well, as it is once again approaching the $1.40 mark against the Euro,
currently trading at $1.4080. .... Nickel is at $17,775, down $425, and looking
very weak. Another close below $18,000 today would put us on track to test
the bottom end of the trading range at $17,320; things look wide opened below
there. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Na Liu of Scotia Capital - Although strong import data are naturally bullish
for related commodities, our only concern is that these imports are made
by Chinese importers based on a very high expectation for the spring revival
of economic activities after the seasonally slow winter. Latest data show
that property construction slowed down sharply in December (up only 8.3%
YOY versus up 40%-66% YOY during August –November 2009), likely due
to the adverse weather in the country. This shows that the strong commodities
import in December is counter-seasonal. A large portion of these imported
materials are being built into inventory. The risk for the bulls, us included,
is that when spring comes and construction activities take off, inventories
for key commodities, after months of building in 2009 and early 2010, could
be found to be on the high side. In the meantime, higher commodities prices
will also encourage local production growth for commodities such as low-grade
iron ore, nickel pig iron, or coal from small mines. With a comfortable inventory
level and higher local output, commodities imports might not be as strong
as the bulls would like to see in the spring, even if economic activities
pick up strongly in March and April as we expect.
Na Liu of Scotia Capital - Prices for ferromolybdenum dropped about
RMB5,000/tonne last week in China to about RMB146,000-RMB148,000/tonne.
Molybdenum concentrate was traded at RMB2,100-RMB2,200/tonne at the end of
last week, down from RMB2,250-RMB2,300/tonne a week ago. As the end-users’
purchases had visibly dropped in the past two weeks amid high molybdenum
prices, the recent price correction, though small, might signal that the
molybdenum price will stop rallying in the near term and begin to consolidate
at current levels.
(Yieh) It is reported that Posco is going to cut down its stainless steel
supply in February. The decision is due to 8 days maintenance. In addition,
the coming Chinese New Year will slow down the business.
(Interfax) There are now nine steel mills in China with an annual crude steel
production capacity of over 10 million tons, a senior Ministry of Industry
and Information Technology (MIIT) official announced at a press conference
on Jan. 27.
(Yieh) It’s reported that South Korean and Taiwanese stainless steel
producers hiked their export price to China. The price increased officially
by about US$150~300/ton compared with that in earlier 2010. However,the actual
price is said to fall by only US$50~100/ton due to weak local demand and
nickel price slide. On the other hand, stainless steel price remained unchanged
in South Korea.
(Dow Jones) South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state agency that
stockpiles strategic commodities, has tendered for 300 metric tons of LME
brand nickel, 99.8% purity or higher.
Universal Stainless Reports Continued Improvement in Fourth Quarter of 2009
-
more
Allegheny Technologies Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2009 Results
-
more
(CD) China's consumer confidence index (CCI) rose to 103.9 in the fourth
quarter last year, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, said
a report released on Jan 26 by the China Economic Monitoring & Analysis
Center under the National Bureau of Statistics.
General
Review Of Nickel In 2009 And Its Outlook For New Year = Strike At Sudbury
/ Canada, Having Continued For Long Period, China Extraordinarily Imported
Nickel (Part 1) -The world market of nickel in 2009 had developed on the
spindle, which the strike gone on at Sudbury Division of Vale-Inco in Canada
has continued for a long period and China imported extraordinary quantities
of nickel in the first half of 2009. -
more
China to Continue
Driving Molybdenum Demand - Cutbacks by major producers, combined with
stockpiling in China, resulted in a tightening of supply, causing prices
to spike in mid 2009. -
more
Apex court to hear
Tangarpada mines case on Monday - The Supreme Court will on Monday decide
whether the Orissa government’s decision to develop Tangarpada chromite
mines on its own and cancellation of allotment of a tender to three
bidders–Tata Steel, Jindal Stainless Ltd and Visa Steel––are
in the best interests of the state. -
more
Raw material
costs push the developing markets' average steel price higher - Trading activity
in the Turkish market has remained downbeat. Local long product steelmakers
have struggled to sell material at their cost of production either at home
or in their export markets. -
more
Steelmakers predict
gradual recovery in markets - Steelmakers are seeing the first blush of a
recovery with more orders from manufacturers of autos, appliances and similar
products. Yet, the battered industry's full recovery has been stalled largely
by a sluggish construction market. -
more
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
China’s Communist Party May Decide Rio Trial, Australian Says -
China’s Communist Party instead of prosecutors may decide whether the
four Rio Tinto Group executives detained in China, will face trial, the
Australian newspaper said without saying where it got the information. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Chinese Banks Have Started Restricting
Credit After Regulator Cracks Down // Japan's Debt-Rating Outlook Cut by
S&P on Absence of Hatoyama Fiscal Plan // Korea's Slowing GDP Growth
May Escalate Political Pressure on Central Bank // Hang Seng Falling 10%
Shows China Risks Increase After Bank Stocks Double // Malaysian Central
Bank Says Interest Rates Can't Be Kept Too Low, Too Long // Germany's Business
Confidence Rises to 18-Month as Global Economy Recovers // Greece Sells $11.3
Billion of Notes After Adding Premium to Ensure Success // Britain Exits
Recession as Economy Expands Just 0.1%, Trailing Forecasts // Bond Risk Soars
as China, Japan Rekindle Liquidity Concern: Credit Markets // Portugal to
Show It's Not the Next Greece With 2010 Deficit-Cutting Plan // European
Stocks Rise on German, U.S. Data; Siemens, Novo Nordisk Advance // Fed Officials
Consider Adopting Interest on Reserves as New Benchmark Rate // Wall Street
Reviving Synthetic Bets as Volcker Blasts Credit-Default Swaps // Treasury's
Barofsky Investigates New York Fed Over AIG Bailout Disclosures // Home Prices,
Consumer Confidence Climb in Sign U.S. Recovering Into 2010 // GM Will Sell
Saab to Spyker in Deal Saving 72-Year-Old Swedish Auto Brand // Verizon Will
Cut 13,000 Jobs in Fixed-Line Unit After Sales Miss Estimates // Stocks in
U.S. Climb on Earnings as Emerging Markets, Commodities Retreat
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, just slightly lower
than this morning's 4/10 of 1%. NYMEX crude oil is off 1/3 of 1% and at
$75/barrel. Gold is up slightly and silver is down 1-3/4%. Base metals ended
the day mixed and quiet. Indicator charts show nickel dipped early but spent
the session stair stepping slowly higher. Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended the day at $8.26/lb. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME approved warehouses fell off their record high overnight, and
now sit just shy of the 162,600 tonne level. Sucden hasn't updated its day
old chart on a week now and this explains why we haven't to it recently.
The Baltic Dry Index slipped 18 points to 3,205. Wall Street experienced
a classic tug of war this morning between the bears and the bulls, with the
dip in home pricing giving the bears some early momentum. But consumer confidence
numbers came out better than expected, and at a 16 month high, and the bulls
have taken over the reigns.
A few minutes after the CBO projected the U.S. government would spend about
$1.3 trillion dollars more this year than it will take in
(pdf
here), after spending $1.4 trillion more than it took in last year, we
checked the national debt clock. Our national debt 'this morning' stood at
$12,316,991,767,633. With our estimated US population at 307,724,319, that
means every man, woman and child in the US is now responsible for over $40,000
of that debt - you have heard the phrase "we the people". You can see what
"we the people" owe at this minute
(here) and
you can find out "who" we owe here
(here).
You can also check out our current foreign bond holders
(here) (all
numbers shown in billions). How much debt were you born with
(here)?
Founding father Thomas Jefferson stated "I place economy among the first
and most important of republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest
of dangers to be feared." We have sure come a long way since then.
China's 2009
imports -- behind the headlines - For industrial metal markets 2009 will
go down in the history books as the Year of the Dragon. -
more
AK Steel to contest
Chinese steel duty if imposed - U.S. steelmaker AK Steel Holding Corp said
on Monday it would challenge a proposed 22 percent import duty on electrical
steel products under consideration by China and has already stopped shipping
to Chinese customers. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In
the week ending January 23, 2010, domestic raw steel production was 1,587,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 65.6 percent. Production
was 1,016,000 tons in the week ending January 23, 2009, while the capability
utilization then was 42.4 percent. The current week production represents
a 56.2 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending January 23, 2010 is up 1.5 percent from the previous
week ending January 16, 2010 when production was 1,564,000 tons and the rate
of capability utilization was 64.7 percent.
Vale and it’s
CEO are taking the offensive! - Vale Sa, the largest iron- ore miner in the
world, is poised to take back some market share from its primary rivals Rio
Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. At this time it has the ability to boost
exports faster as steel making picks up and causing an increased demand for
raw material such as iron. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.02/lb
higher, and rising
out of earlier losses, with other base metals mostly lower. The US Dollar
is trading 4/10 of 1% stronger against the Euro this morning. NYMEX crude
futures are down over 9/10 of 1% and at $74.57/barrel. Gold is down nearly
9/10 of 1% while silver is off nearly 3%. In overnight trading, Asian markets
ended lower, with China off more than 2-1/2% on news Chinese banks have started
to restrict credit. European markets are trading lower this morning, while
US futures imply Wall Street has yet to decide where to open. The bears appear
to have the momentum, but the bulls have not given up the fight. Nickel
inventories slipped overnight, while the BDI lost 18 points. Vale announced
it would resume production at Voisey's Bay without a contract resolution
with the USW. It has already resumed production at its Sudbury operation,
while the USW remains on strike. MBMI Resources announced it is
resuming shipments of laterite ore from the Philippines to China for the
production of "pig nickel" and Bindura announced it is resuming production
in Zimbabwe.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Metals ended mixed on Monday,
with copper, aluminum, and tin all finishing with modest gains, while the
rest of the group closed lower. It was a relatively quiet in other markets
as well, as a measure of stability returned to the fore. In this regard,
after several days of dizzying declines, investors were pleased to see that
the US stock market held its ground on increased hopes that Chairman Bernanke
would be renominated for a second term. However, the vote could still swing
either way, as many senators are still sitting on the fence, while some of
the more prominent names are coming out against him. In this regard, Senator
John McCain of Arizona announced late yesterday that he would be voting against
the renomination. We are off to a weaker note this morning in metals trading,
with copper down by about $90/MT, while other metals (except for zinc) are
also lower. US equity futures are trading lower following weakness seen in
Asian equity markets, with the Chinese market falling to a three-month low
on continued credit worries. And after being a non-factor for the last few
days, the dollar is weighing on sentiment as well, as it is strengthens to
$1.4087 against the Euro. We suspect that we could see the selling in metals
continue through today and perhaps into tomorrow, as the unease in the US
equity markets should keep the pressure on commodities for a little while
longer. ... Out of China, Bloomberg reports that several Chinese banks
have begun restricting new loans, responding to a push by regulators to restrict
credit after a surge in lending earlier in the month. In this regard, the
Bank of China has stopped extending new corporate loans in the Shanghai area
except to clients who have repaid earlier borrowings, China Construction
Bank Corp.’s Shanghai branch has also been told to screen applications
for personal loans and mortgages more carefully and to stop new lending once
a monthly quota is met. The China Banking Regulatory Commission said that
the country would cap new credit at 7.5 trillion yuan this year, down from
a record 9.59 trillion yuan last year. .... Nickel is at $18,075, down
$80, and recovering somewhat from an earlier intraday low of $17,750. Still,
charts look uninspiring. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
Standard & Poor's forecast nickel to average $6.50/lb in 2010, $6/lb
in 2011, and $5.50/lb in 2012.
(MBiz) According to the data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics
of China, in December 2009, China produced 21,271 tons of nickel, a 1.5%
reduction from November's 21,606 tons, an increase of 5.4% than December
2008. During the January-December period of 2009, China yielded 216,363 tons
of nickel, rising by 15.8% over 2008. Besides, in December, China produced
22,660 tons of molybdenum, up by 1.7% versus November's 22,280 tons, soaring
by 65% than December 2008. For the full 2009 year, China produced 215,579
tons of molybdenum, upswing by 17.5% than 2008.
Management replacements in MMC Norilsk Nickel -
more
(ATA) The American Trucking Associations' advance seasonally adjusted (SA)
For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index climbed 2.1 percent in December, following a
2.6 percent increase in November. The latest gain boosted the SA index from
106.2 (2000=100) in November to 108.4 in December, its highest level since
November 2008. The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change
in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment,
equaled 103 in December, up 2.3 percent from the previous month.
Vale Inco to Restart
Voisey’s Bay Nickel Operation - Vale SA’s Canadian unit said
that it will resume production at its nickel mining and milling operations
at Voisey’s Bay using non-striking labor amid a six- month strike. -
more
Cooled Fever In
China Causes To Fall Ratios Of FeNi Exports From Japan= Fallen By 73% From
That At Peak, Exports At Present Fell By 40% - The quantity of nickel in
ferro-nickel exported from Japan to China in the first half of 2009 had a
considerable increase but, reflecting a feeling of the oversupply in China,
the exports of ferro-nickel from Japan to China in the second half were in
the direction to decrease in both quarters of July - September and October
- December. -
more
Bindura Nickel
to resume operations - Regional resources group Mwana Africa says it is looking
at ways of restarting operations at Bindura Nickel Corporation (BNC) on the
back of recovering world market prices and a complementary domestic operating
environment. -
more
MBMI Recommences
Nickel Material Shipments From Alpha Project - MBMI Resources Inc is
pleased to announce that its Philippine operations are preparing to recommence
nickel material shipping activities. Several sales agreements have been executed
with Asian industrial consumers for the delivery of nickel bearing material
having grades of approximately 1.4% nickel. -
more
Press release -
ETI KROM declares Force Majeure due to landsliding damage to railway - The
main railway line connecting ETI KROM's FeCr plant and chrome ore mines in
Elazig to its loading ports of Iskenderun and Mersin is totally destroyed
and closed due to heavy landsliding on Saturday, January 23rd 2010, at Malatya
(the next city to Elazig). 'ETI KROM delivers 80% of its chrome ore and 100%
of its ferrochrome transportation from Elazig to loadports by railways.
Unfortunately, this unexpected situation is called as a 'Force Majeure' case
by ETI KROM and will heavily influence all our shipments during the weeks
ahead'', says the company official, Yasar OZDIREK. ''According to the State
Railway Department, the repairing of the damaged railway will take around
90 days. Unfortunately, due to the winter period, heavy snow and lack of
enough road truck, ETI KROM will suffer to fulfill its delivery deadline
obligations to its all customers under current contracts '', he continued.
The company is currently studying the alternative solutions and informs that
all its existing obligations from now on might be delayed around 90 days.
Until the force majeure case is cleared, ETI KROM will hold all its new sales
of HC FeCr and chrome ore. As it is known that ETI KROM was contracted 140,000
tons of chrome ore and 10,000 mt of HC FeCr until March 2010 and logistically
was fully booked.
Indonesian nickel
firm INCO's CEO to retire in March - The president director of Indonesian
nickel firm PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbk said on Tuesday he will
tender his resignation in March. -
more
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Vale prepares to restart Voisey's Bay operations - Vale Inco, the Canadian
arm of Brazilian mining giant Vale , said on Monday it plans to resume nickel
mining and milling operations at Voisey's Bay, Labrador, which have been
idle since workers went on strike on August 1, 2009. -
more
UPDATE: Vale Inco document proposes mine efficiencies - Local media, including
Northern Life, have been privy to a 94 page confidential strategy document
from Vale Inco workshop last summer, June 15 and 16th, outlining some
possibilities for its Sudbury operations.
- more
Iron ore port stocks hit 3-month high - Imported iron ore stockpiles at China's
leading ports increased by 310,000 tons last week, hitting a three-month
high of 67.42 million tons as of Jan 22, the China Securities Journal reported
today, citing industry data. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Bank of Japan Said to Be Open to Expanding
Emergency Loans, Bond Purchases // Chinese Steelmakers Face Iron Ore Price
Squeeze as ArcelorMittal Revives // Korea's Lee Seeks Singh Support for $12
Billion Stalled Posco India Plant // Asian Stocks Fall for Sixth Day on Bank
Capital Raising, Profit Concerns // Pound Perceived as Diminished Currency
No Matter Who Wins in U.K. Election // UBS Tax Fraud Decision by Swiss Court
May Prompt U.S. to Revive Complaint // Greek Bond Sale in Euros May Yield
as Much as 365 Basis Points Over Swaps // Russia Pays $1 Million to Settle
Remaining Soviet Debt to Foreign Banks // Goldman Sachs Said to Limit London
Partners' Pay, Bonuses to $1.6 Million //
Wall Street Firms Cut Compensation, `Buckling' to Pressure From Washington
// Dollar's Bear-Market Run `Pretty Close' to Ending, Pimco's McCulley
Says // Corporate Bond Sales Cut in Half by Widening Yield Spreads: Credit
Markets
The Euro continues to trade higher against the US Dollar, but by less than
1/10 of 1% at the moment. NYMEX crude oil is up 1/4 of 1% and now over
$74.50/barrel. Gold is up over 4/10 of 1%, while silver is up 1%. Base metals
ended the day mixed and mostly uneventful. Indicator charts show three month
nickel made a few attempts into positive territory early, but spent most
of the rest of the day in a slow slide. Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended the day at $8.23/lb. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME approved warehouses, after slipping for 3 consecutive day over
700 tonnes, have spent the last 3 rising, gaining nearly 1500 tonnes. Inventories
stand at another all time record high, and sit just under the 162,800 tonnes
level. Some of our readers are watching the Rotterdam warehouse, for evidence
of a possible slowdown in Russian nickel exports due to higher export tariffs.
Rotterdam imports have slowed dramatically since the first week of the year,
and the larger inbounds are now being received primarily into Asian warehouses.
The Baltic Dry Index rose 19 points today to 3,223, its third consecutive
increase. Wall Street is still trading in positive territory this morning,
but got knocked back on its heels early on when the National Association
of Realtors reported sales of U.S. existing homes fell 16.7% in December,
its biggest one month drop ever since tracking began in 1968, and much worse
than analysts had forecast. And Barry Ritholtz from Big Picture reported
on Sunday that the Census Bureau had quietly changed the Durable Goods report
from December to show orders fell 0.7% in November, instead of the 0.2% gain
that was reported earlier. We get December numbers later this week. Back
to nickel, talks between Vale and the Voisey's Bay union broke off last evening
with no resolution. Vale and the Sudbury union will in court numerous times
this week over different issues. And still no word leaking out on the
Xstrata/Local 598 negotiations, with the current contract due to expire on
the 31st.
Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks - "Global considerations call for higher
[interest] rates, but fighting domestic economic weakness relies on
low rates. Resolving this dilemma won't be easy... or painless."
Steve Keen: The Economic Case Against Bernanke -
more
Merafe sees
FY HEPS loss - South African ferrochrome producer Merafe Resources Ltd said
on Monday it expects to report a full-year headline loss per share of between
6-7 cents, pressured by low prices for the metal and a strong rand. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.05/lb
higher, with other
base metals trading mostly higher, but quiet. The Euro is trading 1/10 of
1% higher against the US Dollar this morning, giving a slight nudge
to commodities. NYMEX crude futures are down 1/10 of 1% at the moment, and
under $74.50/barrel. Gold is up 3/10 of 1% while silver is higher by 4/10.
In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower, with China off 1.1%. European
markets are trading lower this morning, but US futures show Wall Street may
have decided they oversold at the end of last week, with futures pointing
to a higher opening. Nickel inventories hit yet another all time record over
the weekend, and the BDI gained 19 points. Dow Jones is reporting the talks
between Vale and Voisey's Bay Local 598 went no where this weekend,
and talks have broken off.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Surprisingly, copper ended
higher on Friday, the only bright spot in a number of markets ravaged by
further selling. We suspect that the move higher was short-covering that
set in after days of steep declines, and perhaps some fresh buying once the
complex proved it could hold on to key trend-line support around $7170. However,
the rest of the metals, (apart from tin), were not as fortunate, as they
all closed lower. Ali sank to six-week lows at one point in the day, before
paring its losses on the close, while both zinc and nickel finished sharply
lower, down by around 5% each. High LME stocks levels are continuing to weigh
on these two complexes, with nickel stocks now at record highs, while zinc
stocks are at four-and-a-half year highs. Friday's selling was attributable
to the continued weakness in the US stock market, which was slammed Friday
in the wake of ongoing reverberations from President Obama's banking proposals,
as well as growing doubts about Chairman Ben Bernanke renomination as the
head of the Federal Reserve. ... Lurking in the background, are other
short-term negatives for metals, namely Chinese moves to restrain credit,
which we have been discussing for much of last week. Although the steps the
Chinese have taken thus far remain relatively measured and incremental, they
nevertheless are a clear signal that the easy money policy the authorities
have been pursuing for much of last year is likely coming to an end. The
Indian central bank also announces its rate decision later this week (on
the 29th), and if a rate hike is announced here, it could prove to be the
next "shoe to drop" for markets already jittery about tightening credit
conditions. For all these reasons, we would be wary about buying any of the
dips in metals over the next two days, as we see continued weakness in the
cards. We could see a rather sharp, equity-led relief rally by mid-week if
markets sense that Chairman Bernanke's renomination is safe, but until then,
things will be sloppy and rallies will prove vulnerable. Right now, metals
are slightly higher across the board, as a weaker dollar is allowing a measure
of buying to come in. US stocks are called to open higher as well, and this
is not being lost on the commodity markets, but we are not sure things are
going to snap back as early as today. ..... Nickel is at $18,400, up $90,
and not looking that inspiring on the charts, with a series of lower highs
in place (see chart). There is also something of a triple-top at $19,400
resistance, with $18,000 offering modest trend-line support. (read
Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) China's crude steel output in December stood at 47.66 million
tons, accounting for 44.79 percent of the world's total, according to a World
Steel Association (WSA) announcement on Jan. 22.
(SBB) Chinese stainless 304 prices rose RMB 600-800/tonne ($88-117/t) in
the 18 January week after nickel prices strengthened and the country's largest
stainless producer, Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel, raised its list prices.
(MBiz) -POSCO Special Steel said it would lift 300 series of wire rod price
starting from Feb. by 200,000 Won per ton, which is equal to 1190.4 yuan
per ton, but the prices of 200 and 400 series would be unchanged and bar
price will be also left unchanged. The company explained that the price of
raw material such as nickel, ferrochrome hiked, so it decided to advance
the price of 300 series wire rod
(Yieh) Tisco lately announced to lift stainless steel export price by about
US$300/ton, but it would still offer discount for big orders.
(AP) Expressing concern over the continuation of anti-dumping duty on high
grade stainless steel, the All India Stainless Steel Industries Association
(AISSIA) on Sunday asked the government to take immediate steps to address
the issue.
(NB) Dundee Corporation sold 4,780,450 Mirabela Nickel shares for $12,017,095
on January 19, decreasing from 49,467,208 shares (14.93%) to 44,686,758 shares
(12.39%).
(SSY) In its latest forecast, the World Bank envisages that global economic
recovery will proceed at a speedier rate than it had anticipated six months
ago, Dow Jones reports. Then global growth for 2010 was predicted at 2.0%,
whereas now expectations are for 2.7%. Slow down in 2009 is now thought to
have been at 2.2% year-on-year, a less severe diminishment than the 2.9%
contraction forecast last June.
7 cargo trucks
carrying nickel ore stopped by Zambales execs - At least seven cargo trucks
carrying nickel ore have been held by a team of the Provincial Mining Regulatory
Board (PMRB) due to non-declaration and non-payment of fees to the Zambales
government. -
more
Brazil developing
microbe to clean mining effluent - A Brazilian scientist is developing a
method of purifying contaminated waste water that accumulates at mining sites
by using a genetically modified bacteria that can absorb heavy metals. -
more
China Steel Prices
Drop Most in Four Months on Stocks - Steel prices in China, the world’s
biggest producer of the metal, dropped the most in four months last week
as inventories piled up and concerns grew that the government may curb lending.
-
more
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Talks to end Labrador mine strike break off - Talks to end a labour dispute
between striking Labrador nickel mine workers and Vale Inco have broken off.
-
more
USW, Vale Inco to meet in court - Striking Steelworkers and Vale Inco
Ltd. may not be talking at the bargaining table, but they will face off at
least three times this week in legal and labour proceedings. -
more
EU opens probe into BHP, Rio iron joint venture - European Union regulators
opened an antitrust investigation on Monday into a planned iron ore production
joint venture between BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto worth $116 billion. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Statement's Missing Words May
Signal Shift in Stimulus Policy Stance // Asian Currencies Set for Weekly
Drop Led by Won on China Curbs, Obama Plan // Vietnam Delays $1 Billion Debt
Sale Pricing Until Next Week, Investors Say // Asian Stocks, Oil Fall on
China Rates Concern, Obama Bank Plan; Yen Rises // Greece to Sell $4.2 Billion
of Bonds in `Near Future,' Papanicolaou Says // BOE's Tucker Calls for
Post-Crisis Rethink of `Shadow Banking' Regulation // Obama's `Unilateral'
Bank Plan Shows Lack of Global Coordination on Rules // U.K. Retail Sales
Increase Less Than Forecast, Casting Doubt on Recovery // UBS Client Wins
Appeal Over Transfer of Account Data to U.S. in Tax Case // European Stocks
Post Largest Weekly Drop Since October on Obama Bank Plan // General Electric
Profit Exceeds Analysts' Estimates as Order Backlog Rises // Bank Supervisors
in U.S. Impose Tougher Rules Without Waiting for Overhaul // Morgan Stanley
Sells Bonds as Banks Issue Debt at Fastest Pace Since 1998 // Schlumberger
Profit Slumps 31% as Oil Producers Cut Spending; Sales Drop // Stocks,
Commodities Decline on Concern Obama Bank Rules to Crimp Earnings
The Euro continues to trade higher against the US Dollar, 6/10 of 1% higher
at the moment. NYMEX crude is down nearly 1-1/4% and at $75.16/barrel. Gold
is off 2/10 and silver is down nearly 2-1/3%. Base metals ended the day mixed
and for the most part, quiet. Indicator charts show nickel spent much of
the session in a slide, until a small recovery was attempted at teh end of
the day. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.30/lb
, dropping
$.14/lb for the week. Inventories of nickel stocked in LME warehouses rose
to yet another record high overnight, and now show over the 162,200 tonne
level. Sucden has not updated their day old nickel trading chart in a few
days. The Baltic Dry Index rose 34 points to 3,204. Markets are lower across
the board today and its anyone's guess exactly why. On his blog this morning,
Barry Ritholtz chastised the Wall Street Journal for editorializing their
news headlines and added "Without getting too philosophical, we know that
day-to-day [market] action is mostly nonsense. Selecting a causal factor
from the cacophony of news releases, earnings, price data is all but impossible.
There is a whole lot of noise, and very little signal. Assigning a definitive
causative factor is at best a guessing game, at worst an exercise in futility.".
Nicely put. We finish off the first month of 2010 next week, so have a great
weekend!!
America's Great
Depression by Murray N. Rothbard - free and online
here
Other free online reading posted by the Austrian School of Economics and
Libertarian Political and Social Theory -
authors
list
(Dow Jones) World crude steel production fell 8% in 2009 as production declined
in nearly all the main steel producing countries and regions due to the economic
downturn, which took a bite out of steel demand, according to World Steel
Association figures released Friday. Crude steel production dropped to 1.22
billion metric tons in 2009 compared with 1.33 billion tons in the previous
year.
AK Steel Supports Emergency Relief Efforts In Haiti -
more
(Barry Ritholtz on guessing "why" the market moves on a daily basis)
(MW) Germany's economic ministry revised higher on Friday its estimate for
November manufacturing orders. New industrial orders, adjusted for seasonal
effects, rose 2.8% in November from the previous month, the Federal Ministry
of Economics and Technology in Berlin reported on its Web site.
Eurozone Industrial Orders Shows Improvement -
more
Small Business Group Rebukes Obama Administration Over TARP -
more
Economists React: Is Obama Bank Plan ‘Wrong Solution’ or ‘Good
Idea’? -
more
Obama Seen as Anti-Business by 77% of U.S. Investors -
more
Chinese Dragon Rattles Commodities, Gold, Brazil -
more
Britain - Christmas sales figures worse than expected -
more
Time for Agnelli,
Martins to talk; union must give workers hope - Two things are becoming apparent
in the strike by United Steelworkers Local 6500 at Vale Inco: It is time
for the decision makers at the company speak to the community, and the union
needs to better articulate its strategy. -
more
LME listing of
molybdenum heralds big changes - In the past years, the quantity of molybdenum
consumed by steel companies had shared nearly 60% of the whole demand and
was a main factor to influence on molybdenum prices. -
more
China's 2009
commodity binge ended in a blowout Dec - China's year of stockpiling, stimulus
and steelmaking ended in a strong roster of commodity imports and output
in December, but Beijing's recent moves to rein in growth suggest 2010 could
be a more sedate year. -
more
Raw material costs
to push up China steel prices in 2010-CISA - Rising raw material costs along
with the recovering economies of the United States and Europe will provide
"strong support" for steel prices in China in 2010, the country's steel industry
body said on Friday. -
more
Moly expects
final Chinese approval soon - The head of Moly Mines is confident of receiving
the final two approvals required from the Chinese government to initiate
financing and development of its Spinifex Ridge project before the end of
February. -
more
Intl Ferro
Metals Q2 output up 85%, upbeat on market - South African-based International
Ferro Metals Ltd (IFL.L) gave an upbeat view of prices and Chinese demand
after posting an 85 percent jump in second-quarter output due to the restart
of a furnace. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.22/lb
lower, with all base
meals trading lower this morning. The Euro is actually trading higher against
the US Dollar this morning, up by 1/3 of 1%, typically good news for commodity
traders. NYMEX crude futures are down nearly 1/2 of 1% and under $76/barrel.
Gold is down slightly and silver is lower by nearly 1/4 of 1%. In overnight
trading, Asian markets ended lower with China off 1-1/4%. European markets
are trading lower this morning, and US futures show Wall Street may open
lower. After two consecutive triple point drops, the bulls need to end the
week on the positive. LME nickel inventories bounced into new record territory
overnight, and the BDI gained 34 points.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices ended sharply lower
on Thursday, as markets are getting "re-synchronized" in that they are all
moving together--this time to the downside. Besides metals, both energy and
precious metals posted sharp losses, as did the US stock market, where the
Dow lost 213 points on concern about policy initiatives coming out of the
Obama administration, this time having to do with limiting the trading and
investment activity of commercial banks. Of course, this is a "first draft"
proposal, and as is usually the case with these things, the initial ideas
get diluted (if not jettisoned entirely) as the compromises of the political
process set in. More importantly, short of reintroducing Glass-Steagall,
which legally separates commercial banking from investment banking, it is
going to be extremely difficult to legislate the confines of proprietary
trading at banking institutions as they are currently set up. Nevertheless,
yesterday’s initiative did unnerve many in the commodity space, as the
move may involve less trading by funds who are associated, promoted, or financed
by banks (whose ranks now include several investment banks). Perhaps equally
troubling to the markets are developments in China. We reported yesterday
on China's stellar macro numbers across a raft of sectors for December,
culminating in a 10.7% growth rate seen for the fourth quarter. There is
now legitimate concern that the authorities may have to apply the brakes
more forcefully in order to curtail speculative excesses and rein in potential
inflation. All this is weighing on markets for another day today, with metals
and oil down again, although the extent of the selling is not as intense
as it was yesterday. Perhaps we could start to see a “cooling off”
period set in over the course of the day, as the markets start to sense that
changing the investment rules is not going to be as easy as it sounds.
Technically, metals are also approaching support at key trend line levels,
with copper getting close to $7170 earlier in the day, but holding on for
a bounce. Much depends on the US stock market now, especially since the dollar
does not seem to be the primary downside driver, as it has not appreciated
measurably against the Euro over the last twenty-four hours. .... Nickel
is at $18,450, down $495; there is modest trend line support at $18,000.
Prices seem to want to move lower after forming something of a triple-top
at $19,400 resistance. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
(Yieh) Japan’s crude steel production plunged by 26 percent, to 87.53
million tons in 2009, the first time since 1971 that it was lower than 90
million tons.
(Yieh) Chinese stainless steel makers are likely to resume full production
capacity gradually in January this year after the maintenance in last November
and December, according to Macquarie's analysis. Some small-sized stainless
steel makers are also planning to increase their production due to the strong
demand of domestic construction and electrical appliance industry, and higher
stainless steel prices.
(Philippines) Irrigators’ associations in Cantilan, Surigao del Sur,
backed by environmental lobby groups Baywatch, Lovers of Nature Foundation,
and the Legal Rights and Natural Resources Center, are blocking the entry
of Marcventures Mining and Development Corp. into its project site, citing
environmental issues.
European manufacturing industry united against -30% climate change objective
-
more
(CRU) The recent upturn in nickel prices is testament to the potential for
demand recovery. But the inability of LME nickel prices to move decisively
above $19,000/t signals that further difficulties could lie ahead. In particular,
the stock overhang in China (110,000t) and on the LME (162,000t) remains
threatening.
(Doug Kass) The populist uproar is geared toward the incumbent, toward anyone
in power. It does not run on party lines, nor is it focused on health care.
It is the zeitgeist of dissatisfaction, a sign of the times. Maybe it's a
function of high unemployment or the electorate ticked off at the wealthy
and the largest institutions (especially of a banking kind). This dissatisfaction
was expressed in the Democratic tsunami that brought Obama the Presidency,
and it was seen yesterday in the Massachusetts Senatorial election that brought
Brown the Senate seat. In other words, the mood of the country has been changing
for a while, and it is being reflected in a very negative view toward those
who have not suffered from high unemployment or from wayward derivative bets
(and still got paid).
(CCR) China's power generation in December surged 25.9 percent from a year
ago, the seventh rise in a row, as the world's third-largest economy rebounded
quickly from the global economic downturn. The December growth, the second
fastest in a non-holiday month since at least 1997, was slightly lower than
the 26.9 percent in November.
Xstrata plc has donated $500,000 US to the International Red Cross Haiti
Appeal. The Red Cross fund was established to provide emergency aid and relief
to those affected by last week’s devastating earthquake in Haiti.
(TCB) The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™(LEI) for the U.S.
increased 1.1 percent in December, following a 1.0 percent gain in November,
and a 0.3 percent rise in October.
Commodities Have Further to Advance, Hermes Fund’s O’Shea Says
-
more
Prior To Listing
Moly Oxide Price At LME, Test March Is Being Taken Place = To Inaugurate
From 22nd February, Moly Oxide Price Has Risen To Level Of US$15 Per Lb.
/ Mo - Prior to the listing price of molybdenum oxide at LME (London Metal
Exchange) to be inaugurated from the 22nd February of 2010, the speculations
on price of molybdenum oxide from various sides are whirling in the market
as anticipated, having caused to push up spot price of molybdenum oxide,
and the oxide price actually transacted between traders on the end of last
week has risen to a level of US$15 - 16 per lb. of Mo. -
more
County makes little
progress on mining lease - County commissioners say they want to come to
an agreement with Oregon Resources Corp. to allow the firm to mine chromite
on county forest lands. But they aren't sure it's worth the toll on county
resources. -
more
Northern European
steel prices show modest upward trend - The Flat Products market got off
to a slow start to 2010 in Northern Europe. Some suppliers report increasing
numbers of enquiries and even sales, although this activity is perceived
to be due to restocking rather than growing real demand. -
more
Ruling in $400M
Inco class action to take months - Justice Joseph Henderson will now have
to "walk through more than 12,000 court articles" and consider months of
expert testimony to determine if property values fell after 2000 when elevated
nickel levels were discovered in Port Colborne's soil as a result of historic
nickel refining at the city's Inco plant. -
more
Courtesy AISI - The
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that for the month
of November 2009, U.S. steel mills shipped 5,424,000 net tons, a 11.0percent
decrease from the 6,097,000 net tons shipped in the previous month, October
2009, and a 3.9 percent increase from the 5,223,000 net tons shipped in November
2008. A month-to-month comparison of shipments shows the following changes:
hot rolled sheet, down 12 percent; hot dipped galvanized sheet and strip,
down 13 percent; and cold rolled sheet, down 4 percent.
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Steel mills feel the heat in ore talks as output peaks - Crude steel production
in China, the world's largest steel maker, rose 14 percent to a record last
year, further complicating this year's iron ore negotiations. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Accelerates to 10.7% Growth Pace
as Danger of Asset Bubble Increases // JAL Bankruptcy May Prompt Japan Inc.
to Shore Up Underfunded Pension Plans // Roubini Says Global Stock Rally
May End in Second Half on Muted Recovery // China's Economic Growth Surge
May Push Wen's Inflation Goal Out of Reach // Asian Stocks Fall for Fourth
Day on Tightening Concern; ICBC, Larsen Drop // European Manufacturing,
Services Expansion Unexpectedly Slowed in January // Papaconstantinou Says
Greece Doesn't Need Rescue to Reduce Record Deficit // ECB Says Interest
Rates `Appropriate' as Growth, Inflation Remain Muted // U.K. Budget Deficit
Widens to Record $25.4 Billion as Spending Tops Taxes // European Stocks
Fall for Second Day, Erasing Year's Gains; TomTom Declines // Goldman Sachs
Profit Beats Estimates as Company Slashes Compensation Ratio // Banks' Size,
Trading Would Be Limited in Obama Plan to Reduce Risk-Taking // China Losing
to U.S. as Investment Choice on Bubble Concern in Global Poll // U.S. May
Expand 4% This Year in `Spark' After Recession, MKM's Darda Says //
Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise Amid Holiday Applications Backlog
// Philadelphia Area Manufacturing Grows a Fifth Month as Recovery Takes
Hold // Leading Indicators Increase 1.1% in Sign U.S. Economy to Continue
Growing
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, but by less than
1/10 of 1% at the moment. NYMEX crude is down1.7% on less than stellar economic
reports today, and under $76.50/barrel. Gold is off nearly 1/2% and silver
is lower by 2.4%. Base metals ended their session mixed, but mostly lower.
Nickel bucked the trend again, and indicator charts show a choppy day of
down, then up, then down again, and back up. By the end of the session, Dow
Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.59/lb
. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME approved warehouses rose overnight, and now rest over the 161,700
tonne level. The Baltic Dry Index gained 12 points, to rise to 3,170.
For metals, China released 2009 metal import/export numbers today. Nickel
fared well, with total imports for 2009 of refined nickel up 111.86% higher
than 2008 totals. US markets looked early on to be in a recovery mood today
according to futures, but then employment figures were released and everything
went to hell in a handbag fairly quickly. First time jobless claims rose
at their fastest rate since last May for the week ending January 16th, and
even the 4 week average, which had been falling for the last 5 months, rose.
This is not what economists, or traders for that matter, had been expecting,
and Wall Street market futures turned south before the opening bell rang.
Generally the news from around the world today was less than positive, and
the news that was, was concerning. European PMI numbers showed the pace of
any recovery there has slowed. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
manufacturing index slowed but stayed positive. China released 4th
quarter GDP numbers, but they were so high, many said China has now entered
bubble territory, and traders feared China would have to raise interest rates
to slow things down and keep the threat of inflation at bay. And the Conference
Board reported its index of leading economic indicators for December rose
by 1.1%. Dow is down around 200 points at teh moment.
(Dow Jones) Production capacity at the Henderson primary molybdenum mine
has been hiked to 80% from 60% through most of the year following an improvement
to market conditions, U.S. producer Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.
(FCX) said Thursday. Production was reduced when global economic conditions
crimped sales of the metal, used in aircraft parts and alloys used in stainless
steel.
Crash of 2008 winner says bear market is back -
more
Areva’s Sale
of Eramet, STMicro Stakes Not Urgent, Echos Says - Areva SA’s plan to
sell its stakes in nickel producer Eramet SA and chipmaker STMicroelectronics
NV isn’t urgent because the nuclear-plant maker needs cash only from
2011, Les Echos reported, citing people it didn’t identify. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.03/lb
with most base metals
higher but quiet. The US Dollar is trading higher against the Euro, up nearly
1/4 of 1%, making commodities more expensive. NYMEX crude futures are up
1/4 of 1% and nearing $78/barrel. Gold continues to falter, down nearly 7/10
of 1% with silver off 1.4%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower
with China up 4/10 of 1%. European markets are trading higher this
morning, even after a composite purchasing managers index showed manufacturing
and service growth slowing in January. US futures show a tepid but positive
opening for Wall Street at present, after a positive earnings report
from Goldman Sachs. Nickel inventories rose overnight, while the BDI
gained 12 points.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - There was nowhere to hide for
the bulls yesterday, as practically all the markets sold off. In metals,
aluminum and zinc fell to one-week lows, as did copper, while lead tumbled
to a six-week low. Oil prices were off sharply as well. The markets were
pummeled by a spate of headlines, with the most prominent being the Chinese
credit tightening news we referred to in yesterday’s note. Although
the banking directive that sparked the selloff was not meant to be industry-wide
directive, the markets nevertheless interpreted the move as one more step
towards tightening. Because of this move, the selling that started in Asia
yesterday got worse when European and US markets opened, with a sloppy session
on Wall Street just adding to the declines. At one point, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average was down by about 200 points, before closing 120 points
lower. Mixed earnings reports, particularly from some of the banks and a
lukewarm 2010 outlook puts out by IBM, hurt sentiment, as did fresh uncertainties
about the Obama agenda in wake of the Senate race in Massachusetts. .....
With yesterday’s decline pushing metal prices lower into the trading
range, we suspect that we have somewhat more to go on the downside, as a
test of key trend line supports looks to be in the offing. In this regard,
we could see copper test (and likely hold) support at $7170, while aluminum
could fade to $2150 before stabilizing. Although growth globally now seems
to be well entrenched, there are legitimate fears that we are moving quickly
to the next level of the economic cycle, namely, one in which the authorities
have to raise rates in order to ensure inflation remains under control. However,
doing so too quickly or too much could snuff out the fledgling economic recovery.
We suspect this dilemma will likely weigh on the commodity (and stock) markets
for a little while longer, keeping rallies somewhat in check for now. ...
Nickel is at $18,667, up $67, and taking the resumption of talks at Vale,
(see below), somewhat in stride. (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) China's daily crude steel output reached an average of 1.54 million
tons in December 2009, down 2.53 percent from that recorded in November,
according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Jan.
21.
(JMB) Japanese raw steel output decreased by 26.3% or 31.2 million tonnes
to 87.53 million tonnes in 2009 from 2008, which decreased for 2 years in
a row, hit less than 90 million tonnes for the first time since 1971 and
hit the lowest level since 1969, announced by Japan Iron and Steel Federation
on Wednesday.
(AMM) Sources report that spot premiums for truckloads of plating-grade nickel
remain in a range of $0.90 to $1.00 per lb over LME prices
China’s Copper Output in 2009 Gains 9.6% to a Record -
more
Industrial Metals
Prices to Climb 15 Percent, South Korea Says - South Korea, Asia’s
third-biggest buyer of base metals, forecast that average prices may gain
by more than 15 percent in 2010 as the global economy recovers, and said
it plans a further boost to the nation’s reserves. -
more
Landowners Shut
Dow PNG Nickel Mine - The Kurumbukari landowners of the Ramu nickel and cobalt
mine in Madang province have stopped all operations at the mine. -
more
Int'l Ferro
Q2 output jumps 85% - South African-based International Ferro Metals Ltd
posted an 85 percent jump in second-quarter output after it restarted a furnace
and said the market had improved. -
more
Market Tendency
On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 15th January 2010 = In Preparation For Lunar
New Year In China, Steel Mills Are Moving To Purchase Positively Ferro-Alloys
- The market tendency by item on imports of ferro-alloys into Japan at the
15th January of 2010 is as follows ; -
more
Palmer's nickel
plant stages turnaround - A major nickel plant bought by Australia's richest
man Clive Palmer last year has staged a remarkable turnaround, its operators
say. -
more
Time to get back
into the nickel business - Now is the time to get back into the nickel business,
says the president and chief executive officer of a junior nickel miner with
operations in Timmins and Gogama. -
more
Nickel on recovery
path in January - Nickel prices are heading north continuously this week
following various news that demand for nickel will soar in the coming days
whereas the production of the commodity may suffer in the coming days. -
more
Jien completes
takeover of Nunavik nickel mine - A Chinese-Canadian mining partnership has
finalized its takeover of the Canadian Royalties’ Nunavik Nickel Mine
project, at least on paper. -
more
ThyssenKrupp says
most of businesses made profit in Q1 - ThyssenKrupp said on Thursday the
majority of its businesses posted a profit in its fiscal first quarter, allowing
Germany's biggest steelmaker to look forward with cautious optimism. -
more
More positive outlook
for EU mill steel prices - The EU market remained quiet two weeks into the
New Year. Many companies took extended holidays because of the poor economic
climate and the severe weather hitting several countries has also served
to dampen activity. -
more
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) IMF's Strauss-Kahn Says China's Yuan
Is Undervalued, Should Trade Freely // Asian Drug Companies Jump as
Republican Senate Win Imperils Health Reform // Liu Orders Some Chinese Banks
to Limit Loans Due to Insufficient Capital // Chinese Shares Fall on
Concern Stimulus Being Wound Back; Dollar Advances // Greek 10-Year Bonds
Tumble; Premium to Bunds Widens to Most Since March 17 // Strauss-Kahn Says
Greece's Deficit a `Problem,' Sees No Euro-Zone Break-Up // U.K. Jobless
Claims Decline at Fastest Pace Since 2007 as Economy Recovers // European
Stocks Slump by Most in Six Weeks; Rio Tinto, Renault Shares Drop // Bank
of America Posts $194 Million Loss After Lender Repays Bailout Funds // Buffett
Opposes Obama Levy on U.S. Banks, Likens Plan to Taxing Congress // Housing
Starts in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast; Building Permits Increase // Producer
Prices in U.S. Climb 0.2% in Sign Inflation Threat Is Contained
The Euro is getting hammered by the US Dollar today, and is now trading 1-1/4%
lower. NYMEX crude oil is down 2% and under $77.50/barrel. Gold is off 2-1/3%
while silver is lower by over 4.6%. No matter how optimistic traders were
on base metals, today's thrashing of the Euro couldn't be overcome and base
metals ended lower. Indicator charts show nickel opened lower, and was unable
to climb out of the basement during the session. Dow Jones reports three
month nickel ended the day at $8.53/lb. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME approved warehouses slipped for a third time overnight, and
now rest just over the 161,000 tonne level. LME warehouses have dropped over
700 tonnes in the last three days. The last time inventories fell "significantly"
was in the second half of September 2009, where over an 8 day consecutive
stretch, inventories fell by 2022 tonnes. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel
trading thru yesterday
(chart here). Traders are watching Sudbury very closely
for news about any possible strike threat at Xstrata's operation there, and
until this situation is resolved, don't expect to see nickel doing any
significant price drops. So far, Xstrata and CAW Local 598 have effectively
kept their negotiations behind closed doors and out of the press, so its
anyone's guess how it is going. Our hunch is there won't be a strike, but
only time will tell, and our strike hunches last year didn't go so well.
Signing bonus' anyone? The union representing Voisey's Bay workers has agreed
to meet with Vale this week over their strike, and it is hoped, at least
by yours truly, that since the two represent the same groups currently striking
in Sudbury, we might see some behind the scene negotiations going on. The
Baltic Dry Index slipped 50 points to 3,158. The Commerce Department reported
new housing starts fell 4% in December, making 2009 about the worse year
for homebuilders since World War Two. Building permits rose to their highest
in 15 months. The US producer price-index rose 0.2% in December, with core
prices flat, showing inflation threats are still a theory and not yet a reality.
Gold traders weren't happy about that, so with the Dollar pressuring, we
are seeing a sizable drop in gold prices today, and even harsher for silver,
the poor man's gold. The Sudbury Star reports Vale Inco has fired up its
nickel smelter and started feeding nickel concentrate thru yesterday.
Asian stocks hit by fears of China bank lending curbs -
more
Vale Inco restarts
smelter - Vale Inco Ltd. has resumed partial production at the Copper Cliff
Smelter Complex, in the seventh month of a strike by its production and
maintenance workers. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.09/lb
lower with most base
metals trading lower this morning. The US Dollar is trading much stronger
against the Euro this morning, up nearly 1.1%. NYMEX crude futures
are down nearly 1.5% and under $78/barrel. Gold is lower by nearly 1.2% and
silver is off by over 1.5%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower
with China off on new Chinese loan limitations. European markets are trading
lower this morning, and futures show Wall Street may open lower after gaining
over 1% on the Dow yesterday. Nickel inventories fell for a third consecutive
time overnight, and the BDI fell 50 points. The Democrats lost their 60th
vote majority in the US Senate last evening.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Metal prices finished higher
yesterday, with copper hitting one-week highs and shrugging off the impact
of the stronger dollar. Instead, the group seemed to be taking take its cue
from a surge in the US equity markets, which started to discount a likely
victory by the Republican nominee in the crucial Massachusetts Senate race.
The thinking here is that if the Republicans clinch the hotly-contested seat,
(which finally went their way last night), President's Obama's left-of-center
agenda may be imperiled, as Democrats will now lack a filibuster-proof majority.
This, in turn, may be good for some of the US corporate's that are currently
in the administration's crosshairs, such as hospitals and drug companies,
both of which had strong gains on the stock exchanges yesterday. Yesterday's
strong dollar/weak commodity aberration seems to be reversing itself today,
and we are seeing the more traditional relationship reassert itself. The
dollar is now trading at 1.4162, as fallout from the Massachusetts Senate
rate continues to reverberate through the currency markets. Given this strength,
oil has already given up yesterday’s entire advance, and metals have
given up a good chunk of yesterday’s gains as well. Also troubling the
markets somewhat today was overnight news out of China that authorities have
told some banks to limit lending. The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory
Commission said in an interview that some capital-deficient banks were asked
to rein in credit, but pointed out that he has not asked all Chinese banks
to limit lending. Nevertheless, the markets interpreted the move as more
evidence of further modest tightening, leading to the selling we saw in Asia.
... Nickel is at $19,100, down $115, and fairly quiet, but prices seem
to be creeping higher towards key resistance at $21,500. (read Ed
Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) Jones) The world nickel market was in a deficit of 19,000
metric tons between January and November 2009, the World Bureau of Metal
Statistics said Wednesday.
(Yieh) According to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), China’s
daily crude production rose by 1.6 percent in the first 10 days of the year,
though there are concerns about increasing stockpiles.
(Interfax) China's largest nickel producer Jinchuan Group Ltd. hiked its
ex-works refined nickel price by RMB 4,000 ($585.88) to RMB 145,000 ($21,238.26)
per ton on Jan. 20, following rebounding international nickel prices.
(MBiz) Previously, JISCO's ferrochrome suppliers learned that JISCO's ferrochrome
purchase price is fixed at the price of below 8,000 yuan per ton, part suppliers
believed that JISCO's ferrochrome price for February is likely to stand at
7,900 yuan per ton. After the heated negotiation between steelmills and
suppliers, JISCO's ferrochrome purchase price for February is set at the
price of 7,800 yuan per ton, the quantity being around 15,000 tons.
(Interfax) The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has called for
banks to pay more attention to loans made to domestic steel mills, state
media reported on Jan. 19.
(Bloomberg) The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of
builder confidence decreased to 15 from 16 the prior month, the Washington-based
group said today. Readings below 50 mean most respondents view conditions
as poor.
Chinese loan moves hit miners despite good news from BHP -
more
A regular commentary on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -
more
Nickel price rises
on Xstrata strike fears - A potential strike by Xstrata Nickel workers in
Greater Sudbury is making nickel markets nervous. -
more
Molybdenum Market
Outlook – First Quarter 2010 -
more
Price Of Stainless
Scrap In Japan Is Rising In January, Being Stimulated By Higher Prices In
China, Etc. = Stainless Steel Production In China Is Recovering, Price Of
Stainless Scrap In USA Has Also Risen - The actual price of nickel-based
stainless steel scrap (new clippings) to be collected from domestic sources
of Japan by dealers in January of 2010 has started on a level of Yen 155,000
- 160,000 per metric ton ex. yard, having risen by Yen 10,000 - 15,000 per
ton compared with that prevailed in December of 2009. -
more
Steel, Aluminum
Inventories Rise in U.S., Canada - Inventories of steel and aluminum products
at metals service centers in the United States and Canada rose slightly in
December as shipments of those products declined seasonally, the Metals Activity
Report from the Metals Service Center Institute shows. -
more
BHP Says Iron
Ore Output Rises to Record, Forecasts Volatility - BHP Billiton Ltd., the
largest mining company, said fiscal second-quarter iron ore output rose 11
percent to a record on Chinese demand, and forecast a volatile outlook as
governments withdraw economic stimulus.
- more
Inco Liable for
Years of Pollution, Lawyer Says - Vale SA’s Inco Ltd. hasn’t
cleaned up all properties near an Ontario nickel refinery 10 years after
it was shown land was polluted by nickel emissions from the plant, leaving
a stigma that has cut property values, a lawyer for a group of residents
said. -
more
Chiefs rally behind
exploration protest - District media organizations are to get a first-hand
look today at a series of protests being staged by remote native groups near
a potentially huge chromite deposit about 500 kilometres northeast of Thunder
Bay. -
more
Potential strike at Xstrata's Sudbury operations sends nickel price higher
- Nickel prices gained more than three per cent Tuesday on news that Xstrata's
workers in Sudbury, Ont., could be on strike by the end of the month, potentially
joining striking Vale Inco workers to take 11 per cent of the world's nickel
supply offline. -
more
Talks to end Labrador mine strike to restart -Vale Inco workers in Labrador
said Tuesday they'll begin negotiations with the company this week in hopes
of ending a six-month-old strike at the Voisey's Bay nickel mine. -
more
Vale Inco mulls deep cuts at Sudbury mine - Brazilian mining giant Vale Inco
wants to cut staff at its strike bound operations in Sudbury by as much as
50 per cent and overhaul workplace practices significantly over the next
five years, according to internal company documents. -
more
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Voisey's miners ready to resume talks with Vale - The union representing
striking workers at Vale's Voisey's Bay nickel mine in Eastern Canada said
on Tuesday it had received a new proposal from the company and would try
to return to the bargaining table. -
more
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us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Japan Airlines Files for Bankruptcy
as Government Offers $10 Billion Loans // Warren Buffett Wants to Buy More
Posco Stock, Steelmaker Says; Shares Rise // China Has `No Compelling Reason'
to Raise Interest Rates, ADB's Park Says // Asia Stocks Drop for Second Day
on Earnings as Metals Rise, Dollar Weakens // Cadbury Accepts Kraft's Raised
Takeover Bid, Creating Biggest Candy Maker // U.K. Inflation Rate Jumps Most
on Record to 2.9% on Oil, Tax, Discounts // German Investor Confidence Declines
More Than Predicted, ZEW Center Says // European Stocks Climb for Second
Day, Touch 15-Month High; Cadbury Gains // Citigroup Loses $7.6 Billion in
Fourth Quarter on Costs to Repay Bailout // Buffett's Berkshire Stake Shrinks
Below 25% on Burlington Deal, Donations // Record Cash Flow Means S&P
500 Trades at Half '07 Valuation After 68% Gain // International Demand for
U.S. Assets Rises, Led by Record Bond Purchases // Stocks Rise in U.S. as
Treasuries Retreat, Stronger Dollar Sends Oil Lower
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, in the 7/10 of
1% region. NYMEX crude is now positive , but by less than 1/10 of 1% and
back over $78/barrel. Gold is up nearly 1/2 of 1%, while silver is up over
6/10 of 1%. Base metals ended mixed to mostly higher, and for the most part,
spent the day quietly. That is, except for nickel. Indicator charts show
nickel was slipping this morning and bottomed out shortly after our morning
posting. For the rest of the day, nickel climbed. Dow Jones reports three
month nickel ended the day at $8.71/lb, its highest close
for 2010. Inventories of nickel stored in LME warehouses fell slightly overnight,
yet remain above the 161,600 tonne level. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel
trading thru yesterday
(chart here). Dow Jones is reporting the cause for today's
climb in nickel was due ni part to an International Nickel Study Group report
that estimated the nickel market was in a 3,000 ton deficit in November.
Barclays estimated today that nickel would average $9.52/lb in the first
quarter of 2010, which also got traders attention. The Baltic Dry Index slipped
87 points to 3,208. Conditions in Haiti are near apocalyptic in some areas
of that earthquake ravaged country, as rescuers struggle with the monumental
logistical task of getting aid where its needed. We are posting another video
below that CNN posted earlier this morning - one that we found very moving.
(MW) The Fastenal Co.said Tuesday that fourth-quarter earnings fell to $44.5
million, or 30 cents a share, compared to $62.5 million, or 42 cents a share,
in the same period a year ago. Sales fell 12.5% to $477 million from $555
million last year.
Why AIG Counter-Parties Received 100% on Derivatives -
more
NW Ont. First Nation
plans blockade of exploration activity in Ring of Fire area - A northwestern
Ontario First Nation plans to set up barriers Tuesday to block ongoing
exploration activity at what could be the world’s biggest source of
stainless steel. -
more
Nickel - a case
study in Great Expectations - The LME nickel market is a near-perfect
distillation of the funds-versus-fundamentals debate that continues to split
the metals community down the middle. -
more
Outlook for
industrial metals in 2010 - BIR - Following are comments from members of
the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) issued late last week about the
2010 outlook for industrial metals markets in different regions. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.09/lb
lower, with all London
traded base metals trading lower. The Euro is trading lower against the US
Dollar , down about 7/10 of 1%, which is putting pressure on commodity trading.
NYMEX crude futures are down nearly 3/10 of 1% and under $78/barrel. Gold
is trading flat, while silver is off over 4/10 of 1%. In overnight trading,
Asian markets ended quietly, while China edged up a hair. European markets
are trading lower this morning, while US futures have turned south and show
Wall Street may open lower on Citigroup's fourth quarter loss. Nickel inventories
slipped slightly overnight, while the BDI fell for a second day, down 87
points.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - We had a very quiet day on Monday,
as prices ended the session where they started it. The only exception was
ali, which seems to have faded over the course of the day to close pretty
much unchanged. We are seeing very lackluster and mixed trading conditions
again as of this writing, with modest gains noted only in zinc. The dollar
has recouped all of yesterday’s losses, and is helping reverse the earlier
gains metals made in Asian trading. What also may be weighing on metals is
a Reuters story that the central banks of both China and Taiwan tightened
money supply overnight. Taiwan nudged up its overnight bank lending rate
by one basis point to an eight-month high, while in China, the People's Bank
of China lifted the auction yield on one-year bills in its regular open market
operation for a second week in a row. Indian bond yields also rose after
the country's chief statistician said inflation might hit double digits by
March, raising the prospect of policy tightening when the central bank announces
its rate decision by month’s end. Given the lack of macro news out of
the US today, we expect the impact of the stronger dollar and the modest
tightening news out of the Far East to weigh on the markets, and perhaps
reverse some of the gains generated in yesterday’s session. However,
China's trade data and industrial production numbers come out on Thursday,
and may be the next pivot point for the markets. ... Nickel is at $18,825,
down $65, and very quiet. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
(Yieh) Global stainless steel output is expected to increase by 8 percent
to 27 million tons in 2010 and 30 million tons in 2011, according to expectations
in a report published by Roskill Consulting Group Ltd, a British market analyst.
(Interfax) Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) expects China's crude steel output
to reach 590 million tons in 2010, up 4.42 percent from that of 2009, a senior
UBS employee said at a press conference on Jan. 18.
(SBB) Chinese nickel pig iron producers running at high rates
(TFE) “We feel that in the short term, there might some correction in
base metal prices because of monetary policy tightening, wariness over the
US job market, supply issues at mines, and the weak dollar. But that pullback
should provide buyers with fresh impetus,” said Anand James, senior
analyst at Geojit Comtrade Ltd, a commodities brokerage firm.
China's top steel maker Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. (Baosteel Group) targets
to produce 40.05 million metric tons (tonne) of pig iron, 44.75 million tonnes
of crude steel and 43.49 million tonnes of steel billets in 2010. -
more
(JMB) Tokyo Steel announced on Monday the firm increases the selling price
of all steel items by 3,000 yen per tonne for distributors for February order.
(SC) The domestic steel prices were stepping down from January 8 to 18 in
China although both Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Iron and
Steel Co., Ltd. recently raised the ex-works prices of some products.
(China) Time to cage inflation tiger, say experts -
more
Rogers trains guns on Chanos for China remarks -
more
Time to get back
into the nickel business - Now is the time to get back into the nickel business,
says the president and chief executive officer of a junior nickel miner with
operations in Timmins and Gogama. -
more
Clan Leaders Worried
About PNG Nickel Mine - In Papua New Guinea, clan leaders at Basamuk in Madang
Province are worried about the underwater blasting operation that the developers
of the Ramu nickel mine are proposing. -
more
General Review
Of Molybdenum In 2009 And Its Outlook For New Year = Key Points Are Listing
Molybdenum On LME And Chinese Power To Import Molybdenum - On the occasion
of 2010, the composition of molybdenum is anticipated to change largely.
In the past years, the quantity of molybdenum consumed by steel companies
had shared nearly 60% of the whole demand and was a main factor to influence
on molybdenum prices. -
more
After seven years
of delay, work may begin on U.P. nickel mine - Kennecott Eagle Minerals Co.
finally has won state approval for a nickel and copper mine in the Upper
Peninsula. -
more
Minara output
hits record as nickel price rises - Australia's second-largest nickel
producer, Minara Resources Ltd, on Tuesday reported record 2009 nickel output
at its Murrin Murrin mine as demand for the steel-making ingredient showed
signs of recovery. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In
the week ending January 16, 2010, domestic raw steel production was 1,564,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 64.7 percent. Production
was 1,016,000 tons in the week ending January 16, 2010, while the capability
utilization then was 42.4 percent. The current week production represents
a 53.9 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending January 16, 2010 is up 2.6 percent from the previous
week ending January 2, 2010 when production was 1,525,000 tons and the rate
of capability utilization was 63.9 percent.
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Big challenges for nickel giant - Monday passed quietly at Vale Inco's Port
Colborne plant -- for those on the picket lines as well as those still working
inside. -
more
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info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
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us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Google Says It's Holding Talks With
China Amid Dispute Over Cyber Attacks // Yen Carry Trade Shows Japan
Losing Mojo With Collapsing Market Volatility // Asian Stocks, Korean Won
Decline as U.S. Consumer Confidence Disappoints // Investors Should Bet Euro
Will Fall Versus Pound on Greece Risk, UBS Says // U.K. Home Sellers Raised
Prices in January as Supply Squeeze Intensified // EU Considers Imposing
Price Disclosure Rules on Dark Pool Trading Systems // European Finance Chiefs
Says Greece Must Deal With Deficit Crisis Itself // European Stocks
Climb; Kazakhmys, Cadbury Gain as Titan Cement Paces Greek Decline /
Corporate-Government Spread Rises as Banks Rush Debt Sales: Credit Markets
// Euro Falls Against Dollar, Greek Bonds Drop on Budget Concern; Stocks
// Japan Airlines Said to Near Pact With Delta, Severing Ties With American
//
The US Dollar is currently trading lower against the Euro, down less than
1/10 of 1%. NYMEX crude is up 4/10 of 1% and has slipped back below
$78.50/barrel. Gold is up 1/4 of 1% and silver is 1-1/3%. Base metals ended
the day mostly higher, with many slipping in after market trading.
Indicator charts show nickel had a V shaped day, slipping early and then
spending much of the afternoon in a climb. Dow Jones reports three month
nickel ended the day at $8.57/lb Inventories of
nickel stored in LME approved warehouses fell over the weekend, and remain
above the 161,500 tonne level. Sucden's day old chart shows trading last
week
(chart here). Both the RSI and SStoch show the market
was leaning into overbought territory when the market opened this morning,
but traders didn't seem to mind. The Baltic Dry Index slipped 4 points to
3,295. Reuters posted a story for subscribers today that contained a couple
of charts worth seeing. Chart 1
(here) shows China
net nickel imports over the last 3 years on a monthly basis. Chart 2
(here) shows global
stainless steel production on a quarterly basis over the same period. US
markets are closed today, but futures show sentiment is still positive for
tomorrow. 60 Minutes showed a segment on the Haiti disaster that contained
some very disturbing and shocking images, but worth seeing.
video
here
(DJC) Goldman Sachs commodity analyst Jeffrey Currie - "...nickel will be
hamstrung by the development of nickel pig iron technologies in China. All
of the metals, though, will be constrained by large inventories for most
of 2010..."
Bank Economists Expect Slow Growth, High Unemployment -
more
Good News, Bad News on China’s High Savings -
more
NAHB Housing Market Index and Housing Starts -
more
Rail Traffic in 2009: Lowest since at least 1988 -
more
Britain's recession the steepest for 88 years -
more
US Foreclosure In 2009 Set All Time Record High -
more
The complex network of global cargo ship movements -
pdf here
Miner may
build processing plant following finds at nickel mines in Surigao del Norte
- Exploration by Canadian miner Mindoro Resources, Ltd. indicates an estimated
nickel resource of 50 million-70 million dry metric tons (MT) at a nickel
property in Surigao del Norte. -
more
Base metal outlook
improves, OECD demand slow-BIR - Demand for industrial metals looks set to
improve in 2010 as Asian buying forges on, but the industry remains on
tenterhooks to see if OECD demand will also pick up, according to the Bureau
of International Recycling. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.07/lb
higher, with most base
metals trading quietly higher this morning. The US Dollar is trading
1/10 of 1% higher against the Euro. NYMEX crude futures are up 3/4 of 1%
and over $78.50/barrel. Gold is up 1/3 of 1% while silver is 1-1/4% higher.
In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower while China ended 1/2 of
1% higher. European markets are trading higher this morning, and US futures
show Wall Street may open in a better mood than it finished last week.
Inventories of nickel fell over the weekend, and the BDI has yet to
published.
SSINA Releases Market Data for November 2009 -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Metal prices pushed lower
on Friday, buckling under the pressure of a weaker dollar and growing
apprehension about mounting stockpiles. Of the two, the dollar was the more
noticeable factor, having one of its sharpest advances against the Euro in
several weeks after it strengthened to 1.4337 from about 1.4510 earlier in
the day. Greek-related default jitters were behind the surge in the greenback
since the macro data out of the US did not provide much of a reason to rally.
... Metal prices are generally higher today, as a slightly easier dollar
is allowing a measure of buying to set in. In fact, we have recouped most,
if not all, of Friday’s losses, although it remains to be seen whether
these gains can be sustained in the days ahead. Certainly, the technicals
look solid, with prices in most of complexes still trading within their long-term
upchannels despite the shorter-term picture looking somewhat messier. ...
Nickel is at $18,750, up $150, but the charts show continued congestion,
with prices not yet able to carve out the upward trading range that is prevalent
in the other metals. In fact, nickel has yet to take out its 2009 highs so
far this year, ($21,325), while all the other metals have already done so.
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) Shanxi Province-based Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Group) Co. Ltd.
(TISCO), China's largest stainless steel mill, saw its stainless crude steel
output increase by 38.2 percent year-on-year to 2.48 million tons in 2009,
a company employee told Interfax.
(Yieh) Cerro Matoso, BHP Billiton's ferro-nickel subsidiary in Colombia plans
maintenance at the No.1 blast furnace from September 2010 for six months.
This movement is for the purpose of expanding capacity. The annual production
of its existing two blast furnaces is 55,000 tons.
(MBiz) According to the statistics, Japan imported 11,171 tons of stainless
steel in November of 2009, fell 21.7% from 14,264 tons in October. There
into, Japan imported stainless steel of 9,111 tons from S.Korea, 552 tons
from Taiwan and 393 tons from China.
(MB) Jinchuan lifts nickel prices by $293 on LME rebound
(NB) Avanco Resources Ltd expects drill testing of recently identified targets,
at its Brazilian Touro nickel project, the company said on January 18, 2010.
Induced polarisation and geochemical surveys have identified a 4km long nickel
anomaly, with values of less than 1000 parts per million nickel, and up to
2000ppm.
Expect Higher Commodity Prices in 2010: Frost & Sullivan -
more
(NAW) The business outlook for manufacturers improved modestly in the fourth
quarter of 2009, marking the third consecutive quarterly improvement in the
NAM/IndustryWeek Manufacturing Index. The Index is a quarterly survey of
members of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) that began in
the fourth quarter of 1997.
IMF chief: global recovery stronger than expected -
more
Molybdenum Prices
Have Rebounded, After Having Broken Silence For 3 Months = Domestic Prices
In China Have Turned To Rise, USA Is Moving To Purchase Molybdenum - Market
price of molybdenum oxide has turned to rise, after having broken a silence
continued for about 3 months. -
more
Domestic stainless
steel processing viable - The country's only stainless steel processor could
be up and running within five years at Western Australia's newest port. -
more
Thainox says
main shareholder in talks with POSCO - Thainox Stainless Pcl , Southeast
Asia's largest stainless steel producer, said on Monday its main shareholder
was discussing the sale of a stake to South Korea's POSCO but made no comment
on the price. -
more
Mwana Africa
Set to Clinch Financial Deal - AIM-listed Mwana Africa Holdings is close
to clinching a financial deal that will enable the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange-listed
Bindura Nickel Corporation (BNC), the only integrated nickel mine, smelter
and refinery operation in Africa, to re-open. -
more
China Liquidity
Curbs May Slow Steel Demand, UBS Says - China’s lending curbs
may slow demand growth for steel from ongoing infrastructure and property
projects in the world’s largest consumer of the metal, an analyst at
UBS AG said. -
more
Baosteel says 2009 net profit falls 11% - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co, China's
largest steelmaker, said its 2009 net profit fell about 11 percent from a
year earlier as turnover declined by more than a quarter. -
more
IBC Rental and Service
Leader Metano Holds Firm Against Stainless Steel Price Increases - Despite
rising raw material costs and increasing IBC demand, Metano IBC Services
Inc. announced that it will hold the line on rental prices for its intermediate
bulk container lines. -
more
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Vale Inco e-mails
offer to striking N.L. miners - The company that owns the Voisey's Bay nickel
mine in northern Labrador has made a new offer to unionized workers in an
effort to end the 5½-month strike at the mine. -
more
Vale to Grab Ore Share From BHP, Rio as Demand Surges - Vale SA, the
world’s biggest iron- ore miner, may win back market share from rivals
BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group because it can boost exports faster
as demand for the steelmaking raw material surges to a record.
- more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Yen, Dollar Gain as China Slowdown
Concern Damps Demand for Higher Yields // China Reserves Hit Record, Lending
Growth Accelerates in Challenge to Wen // Japan Air Turnaround to Be Confirmed
on Jan. 19, Paving Way to Bankruptcy // Peugeot Said to Discuss Controlling
Stake in Mitsubishi to Deepen Alliance // Spain, Ireland Lead European Nations
in $34 Billion Bond Sales Using Banks // Greece Won't Default on Its Debt
or Abandon Single Currency, Juncker Says // European Stocks Drop, Led by
Deutsche Bank, Societe Generale, Solar Shares // JPMorgan Earnings More Than
Quadruple; Shares Fall on Higher Loss Reserves // Wall Street May Reduce
Compensation as Public Furor Mounts on Bonus Pay // Strengthening U.S. Recovery
Lends Urgency to Fed's Debate on Exit Strategy // U.S. Production, Confidence
Gain as Prices Slow in First Stage of Recovery // Lacker Says Threats to
Fed's Autonomy Pose Risks to Stability of Economy // Banks Permanently Modify
66,465 of 4 Million Troubled Mortgages Under Plan // Recovery in U.S. Extends
Into 2010 Without Stoking Inflation, Reports Show // Manufacturing in New
York Fed Region Grows More Than Forecast, Fed Says // Strengthening U.S.
Recovery Lends Urgency to Fed's Debate on Exit Strategy
The US Dollar is trading much higher against the Euro than this morning,
up well over 8/10 of 1% and at 1.4374. NYMEX crude is off nearly 1-1/4% and
under $78/50/barrel. Gold is getting hammered today as US inflation stays
in check and the Dollar increases, down over 1%. Silver is off nearly 1.4%.
For the most part, base metals traded in London ended lower today. Except
for nickel. Nickel waited just long enough for us to report it wasn't doing
much this morning, and almost immediately went green. For the rest of the
trading day, it slowly gained, only taking a break toward the end of the
session. For the day and week, Dow Jones reports three month nickel closed
at $8.44/lb, up 1.1% for the week.
Nickel inventories stored in LME authorized warehouses rose to yet another
record high overnight and now sit just shy of the 162,000 tonne level. Sucden's
day old chart shows nickel bottoming out and rising over the past few days
(chart here). The Baltic Dry Index rose 64 points to 3,299.
Reports coming from China of power supply problems in some areas due to the
cold weather and extensive snow pack. At the moment, Wall Street is off 1-1/3%
as government and business reports come out "not as good as analysts expected".
Have a safe and enjoyable weekend!!
(AP) South Korea's leading steelmaker, said Thursday that its earnings increased
77 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter of last year due to
decreased costs and rising demand.
Affluent retirees split on whether focus should be lifestyle goals or savings
goals in survey -
more
London Metal Exchange
hits second highest trading volume in 2009 - The London Metal Exchange (LME)
hit the second highest trading volume in its history in 2009, according to
the annual trading figures released on Friday -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.01/lb
with other base
metals mostly lower. The Euro is trading over 1/10 of 1% lower against the
US Dollar, adding pressure to commodity trading. NYMEX crude futures are
down 7/10 of 1% and under $79/barrel. Gold is off 7/10 of 1% while silver
is down over 6/10 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended slightly
higher with China up nearly 4/10 of 1%. European markets are slightly lower,
while US futures show Wall Street may open lower. Nickel inventories rose
to another record overnight, while the BDI rose 64 points.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Metals ended mostly higher yesterday,
although copper did see a slight dip late in US trading. However, trading
conditions were very subdued, with the upside kept in check by the largely
negative macro data out of the US. In this regard, US retail sales for December
decreased 0.3%, weaker than the 0.5% increase expected, and well below the
1.8% spike seen in November. Stripping out automobiles, sales decreased 0.2%,
also worse than the 0.3% increase forecast. Labor data showed US initial
jobless claims for the latest week totaling 444,000, a bit more than the
437,000 expected, but continuing claims, (a measure of how many people are
moving off the dole), retreated to 4.60 million from an upwardly revised
4.81 million. Still, it was the retail sales number that was the most important
reading, as the size of the miss was quite substantial. The dollar is now
trading below 1.44 mainly on account of Greek-related jitters, and in fact,
its rise against the Euro over the past 24 hours has been the biggest move
it has made against the European currency in about a month. This explains
why we are seeing today's modest sell-off in metals, wiping out all of
yesterday’s gains. Also not helpful, were reports of further copper
stock increases both out of the LME and from Shanghai. Aluminum stocks rose
by a hefty 10,000 tons on the week on the Chinese exchange. We do not have
much to add to what we have been saying in recent commentary. Metals have
tried but failed to take out their recent trading range highs on this most
recent retest, and have spent their time since then back away. Up to now,
the retracement has been modest, as the longer-term uptrends are still intact,
but there is understandable nervousness about the gradual tightening of credit,
recently illustrated by China's moves hiking reserve requirements and yield
auctions. The Indian central bank announces its rate decision later in the
month and could be the next shoe to drop in this regard. On the metal supply
side, although there continues to be concern about various bottlenecks (strikes,
power cutbacks, etc), there does not seem to be a corresponding dip in inventory
levels, meaning that the commercial trade is still relatively complacent
about its ability to source metal. .... Nickel is at $18,280, down
$20. LME stocks continue to push higher and are now at record
highs. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) Nickel will average $20,000 a metric ton in 2010 due to a forecast
recovery in demand and just over $22,000/ton between 2010 and 2011, estimates
Roskill Information Services. The group forecasts demand for the metal, primarily
used to make stainless steel, will rise by 7% this year after three consecutive
years of declines.
(Yieh) Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco) has announced a price
rise of US$80~100/ton for stainless steel exports for the second half of
January. The company’s domestic prices for 300 series will raise by
NT$2,000/ton. The price rise is triggered by higher nickel prices and improved
demand.
Chines pig nickel production rose 5.47% in December, resulting in the production
of 13.7 thousand tons of nickel.
(SO) China's iron ore imports in December totaled 62.16 million mt, up 11.09
million mt month on month and up 80.02 percent year on year, according to
newly-issued figures. In 2009, China's iron ore imports came to 628 million
mt, up 41.6 percent year on year.
(AIF) China has expanded its mining rights in North Korea to cover as many
as 20 sites, a South Korean report said Thursday. China is a leading investor
in North Korea, which, according to a South Korean study, is believed to
have enormous deposits of natural resources, including coal, nickel, molybdenum
and bronze.
(JMB) Nickel Series Stainless Sheet Price Keeps Flat, Tokyo
(SBB) Chinese stainless 304 CR prices slip, 430 prices rise
MBiz) Recently, Aquarius Platinum resumed the construction of its chrome
reprocessing plant of Everest mine in South Africa. The company's UG2 chrome
production line with the annual production of 216,000 tons was estimated
to be put into the production in September, 2010.
(DM) Recovery in the manufacturing sector may be clearly in sight, according
to the quarterly Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Survey on the Business Outlook
– December 2009. The December 2009 composite index rose to 57% from
38% reported in the September 2009 report, representing the highest level
since March 2008, and the first time in six quarters it has reached 50% or
above.
Food Shortages Coming, Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers
- more
Gresham sees more money in commodities in 2010 -
more
Molybdenum prices
on a sustainable upswing: JP Morgan - Prices for molybdenum, a base metal
used to make stainless steel, will likely rise 55% in the next two years,
JP Morgan analysts said Thursday. -
more
Michigan officials
give final OK for nation’s only mine where nickel will be primary mineral
- Michigan regulators have given final approval for construction and
operation of a bitterly contested nickel and copper mine in the Upper Peninsula.
-
more
Rusina, DMCI
to resume nickel export as prices rise - Australian miner Rusina Mining NL
and the Consunji-led DMCI Mining Corp. expect to resume nickel ore exports
early this year given improved metal prices. -
more
Prices Of Chinese
Ferro-Alloys For Exports Have Risen Further After New Year = Reflecting Risen
Prices In Domestic Market Of China And Also Troubled Deliveries By Heavy
Snowfall - The prices of bulk ferro-alloys (silicon ferro-alloys and manganese
ferro-alloys) produced in China have risen further from the beginning of
2010. -
more
2010 expected
to be tough for mining - 2010 is expected to remain tough for the mining
sector due to rand strength and the likelihood of high electricity tariff
increases in July, according to Investec economist Kgotso Radira. -
more
Cyclone brews
off Australian oil, mining region - Australia's giant Port Hedland iron ore
terminal is monitoring a low pressure system threatening to intensify into
a cyclone by Sunday but has no immediate plans to activate emergency procedures,
a port spokeswoman said on Friday. -
more
Overwhelming strike mandate - Members of Mine Mill Local 598/CAW, Xstrata
Nickel unit, gave their bargaining committee an overwhelming strike mandate
of 96% at votes held Wednesday at the Radisson Hotel. -
more
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Baosteel Appoints Iron Ore Negotiator as Prices Surge - Baosteel Group
Corp., China’s biggest steelmaker, named Wang Liqun as its new chief
negotiator for iron ore contract talks, an executive said, amid forecasts
that prices may surge as much as 50 percent. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China's Overheating Economy Poses Global
Risk, World Economic Forum Says // Shanghai Overtakes Tokyo as Asia's Biggest
Stock Market by Trading Value // Stocks Advance as Low Interest Rates Bolster
Economies; Yen, Corn Decline // Bankers `Let Down' as Income Tax Increase
Makes London Most Expensive City // European Central Bank Keeps Rate at Record
Low 1% to Boost Economic Growth // Papandreou Vows to Cut Costs, Add $14.5
Billion Revenue to Narrow Deficit // Volkswagen's Bentley Targets U.S. Sales
Growth in 2010 With Mulsanne Sedan // Euro Weakens Against Dollar as Trichet
Says Outlook for Region Uncertain // European Stocks Rise for Second Day
on Economy; Rio Tinto, Celesio Advance // Obama Bank Levy Would Target Up
to 50 of the Biggest U.S. Financial Firms // Fed's Dudley Says Short-Term
Rates May Stay Low for as Long as Two Years // Foreclosures in U.S. to Rise
to Record 3 Million in 2010, RealtyTrac Says // U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly
Drop in Sign Economy May Be Slow to Recover // U.S. Jobless Claims
Rise; Four-Week Average Hits Lowest Since August 2008 // Bair, Schapiro Say
Banks' Pay Practices Helped Spur U.S. Financial Crisis
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, now up nearly 2/10
of 1%. NYMEX crude is off 2/10 of 1% and under $79.50/barrel. Gold is flat
and silver is off 2/10 of 1%. Base metals ended the day higher, but off session
highs. Indicator charts show nickel opened lower, then took off. It appeared
the day would end the day with a huge increase, but around 3:30 pm London
time, things went to hell in a hand basket, and the price went into a free
fall. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.30/lb, right where it ended
yesterday. Inventories of nickel store in LME approved warehouses rose by
a huge number overnight, and now sit over the 161,500 tonne level, a new
record high. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel reversal yesterday
(chart here). And yes, for those who are following, Rotterdam
received the lion's share of the nickel overnight. The Baltic Dry Index gained
for the 4th consecutive day, up 60 points to 3,235. This is a total gain
of 95 points so far this week. In US economic news today, the Commerce Department
reported US business inventories rose for a second month, up 0.4% and less
than expected. They also reported retail sales fell 0.3% in December after
economists had forecast an increase. First time jobless claims unexpectedly
rose last week, by 11,000 to 440,000 per week. MarketWatch reports "Overall,
a record 10.9 million Americans received federal and state unemployment benefits
on an unadjusted basis in the week ended Dec. 26, the latest period for which
the data is available. This is up from 10.6 million in the prior week." And
Wall Street today? Up for reasons other than the news.
(FIN) Australian nickel pig iron producer China Steel Australia Ltd (ASX:CNH)
says it has increased production at its nickel pig iron and merchant pig
iron plant to 85% capacity after receiving a large order from a major customer.
This is the second ramp up of production this week after earlier announcing
an increase to 75%.
(rewrite) Global Stainless Production Down 15% in 2009 -
more
(WSJ) The Fed's "beige book" survey, released Wednesday, said that conditions
in 10 of its 12 districts have improved lately. The exceptions, the Philadelphia
and Richmond, Va., districts, reported "mixed conditions".
SEC Helped AIG Hide Pass thru Bailouts to GS, others -
more
In-Depth Look – Crash In US Home Prices May Resume -
more
California's debt rating cut again on budget woes -
more
The Really Remarkable Story: Goldman Could Buy Insurance on the CDOs It Sold
-
more
Ferrochrome
pricing is disordered - Buyers report that ferrochrome prices are muddled
this week in a range of 88¢ to 95¢ per pound, depending
on which trader is making a supply offer for February delivery. -
more
China Metals:
Perception versus reality in pricing - Traders and speculators see active
metals purchasing by China as a good economic gauge that justifies raising
world commodity prices. But, lately, the country has been overbuying and
building stockpiles. Maybe prices should be falling. -
more
Canadian union
files labor complaint against Vale - The United Steelworkers union filed
a labor complaint against Brazilian miner Vale's Inco unit on Wednesday,
claiming it has refused to engage in negotiations to end what is now a six-month
strike at the company's nickel operations in Sudbury, Ontario. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.09/lb
higher, with all base
metals trading higher this morning. The US Dollar is trading 1/10 of 1% higher
against teh Euro, typically adding pressure to commodity trading. NYMEX crude
futures are up 4/10 of 1% and just under $80/barrel. Gold is up a tad, while
silver has opened 4/10 of 1% lower. In overnight trading, Asian markets rebounded
from yesterday's loss, with China up 1.4%. European markets are higher after
the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 1%. And US
futures should open higher. Nickel inventories leapt to a new record high
overnight and the BDI gained 60 points.
Steel Founders' Society Of America Casteel Reporter
- pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals perked up yesterday
in a very quiet session and stabilizing somewhat after Tuesday's sharp sell-off.
As we noted in yesterday’s note, the technicals in the complex have
not yet to deteriorate to the extent that would force many of the recent
longs to pare length, and so a heavier wave of selling was perhaps averted.
This morning, we are off to a mixed start after earlier losses were reversed.
The group is modestly higher in quiet trading, with only lead and nickel
showing slight losses. The dollar is not doing much today, and in fact, has
not been able to break away from the 1.45 level against the Euro for some
days now. And after three days of declines, energy prices are up slightly,
although oil’s chart patterns and short-term fundamentals argue for
further declines. ... nickel is at $18,212, down $88. LME stocks were
up by a hefty 1900 MT today, but another close above $18,000 today should
keep the minor short-term upchannel intact. (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
Dow Jones poll of 36 metals analysts - nickel forecast - Average Spot Price
For 2010: $17,773 Highest Average Forecast: $26,000 Lowest Average
Forecast: $14,750
(Dow Jones) Goldman Sachs (GS) Thursday revised its 12-month copper, nickel
and zinc forecasts, citing a combination of improving economic growth in
developed markets and robust emerging markets growth. .... It also raised
nickel to $17,195/ton from $17,140/ton ...
(Yieh) According to the report, Japan imported 11,171 tons of stainless steel
products in November, 2009, down by 21.7 percent compared to it was 14,264
tons in October.
(JMB) Japan Ni Series Stainless Export Recovers to Asia
(ANB) China Steel Australia Ltd says a major customer has placed a large
order for nickel pig iron which has further increased production at its nickel
pig iron and merchant pig iron plant in Shandong, China, to 85% capacity.
China Steel already announced earlier this week that it had increased its
capacity to 75%.
(SO) The South Korean steelmaker POSCO announced on January 14 that the fourth
blast furnace at its Gwangyang Steelworks has achieved 15,613 metric tons
of production per day, the first time in the world that such a high output
level has been attained.
(RITA) The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 1.8 percent in
November from its October level, rising after two consecutive monthly declines,
the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics
(BTS) reported today
(NFIB) The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business
Optimism lost 0.3 points in December, falling to 88.0 (1986=100). The Index
is seven points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached
in March 2009 (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980) but has been below 90
for 15 months. Optimism has clearly stalled in spite of the improvements
in the economy.
PTC Alliance Files for Chapter 11 Protection -
more
Steel workers hope for last minute lifeline -
more
NICKEL-Major
market developments in January - Global nickel prices will weaken further
unless more output cuts are made to offset falling demand and prevent the
market from recording a supply surplus for the third consecutive year, analysts
say. -
more
Analysis: Swollen
stocks to shackle nickel prices - An abundance of nickel could see already
swollen stocks surge to new record highs over coming weeks and hit prices
of the metal used to make stainless steel. -
more
CRU Indices Increase
Frequency of Their European Steel Sheet Indices - Having tracked European
steel sheet prices on a monthly basis for over 25 years, CRU will be introducing
weekly assessments for Germany, France, Italy and Spain from February 2010.
-
more
Baoshan Steel
Unexpectedly Keeps Prices Unchanged - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.,
China’s largest steelmaker, kept prices for its main products unchanged
for February delivery after the government restrained lending. -
more
Baosteel increases February manufacturer prices - Baoshan Iron & Steel
Co (Baosteel), the nation's largest steel mill, significantly raised its
February manufacturer prices yesterday. -
more
Guest column: Domestic scrap steel price may reach $468 per ton in Q1 - Globally
speaking, prices of scrap steel, a raw material for steelmaking, usually
share the same price trend as steel rebar, which is a major steel product.
- more
POSCO sees
2010 domestic steel demand up 13 pct - South Korea's POSCO forecast on Thursday
that domestic steel demand would grow 13 percent this year, driven by automakers
and builders, while the global demand was expected to rise around 10 percent.
-
more
Rio, Posco
Production Gains Signal Rebounding Steel Demand - Rio Tinto Group,
the world’s third- largest mining company, and Posco, Asia’s most
profitable steelmaker, are raising production as demand from carmakers and
builders rebounds with the global economic recovery. -
more
Two videos today
- inside two of the world's largest nickel operations
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Some in Canada Say Strike Shows Risk of Foreign Control - Last July, the
3,300 unionized workers who normally work deep below this city in the vast
nickel mines owned by Vale Inco did something unusual: they went on strike
even though they had already been laid off temporarily. -
more
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Global Economic Confidence Rises to
Record as Factory Growth Accelerates // Google May Close China Site, Offices
After `Highly Sophisticated' Attack // Investors Turn Bullish on Stocks From
U.S. to Japan on Economy, Earnings // Copper, Aluminum Rally May Cool as
China Restrains Lending, Analysts Say // China's Stocks Decline Most in Seven
Weeks on Stimulus Exit; Banks Slump // U.K. Bankers Surrender on Darling
Bonus Levy as Income Tax Increase Looms // Germany's Economy Probably Stagnated
in Fourth Quarter, Shrank 5% in 2009 // Pound Advances After Sentance Tells
Guardian BOE May Raise Interest Rates // Greek Government Debt Risk Surges
to Record After Moody's Report, CDS Show // U.K. Recession Probably Ended
Last Quarter With 0.3% Expansion, Niesr Says // European Stocks Gain as Infineon,
ASML Advance; Societe Generale Declines // Bank of America Names Finance
Chief Joe Price to Help Stem Consumer Losses // SEC Vote May Reveal Scope
of Regulation on High-Frequency Stock Trading // Mortgage Applications Increased
14% Last Week, Led by Refinancing Activity // Stocks in U.S., Europe Advance
as Bonds, Crude Oil Retreat; Pound Climbs
The Euro has given up most of its morning gains, and is now trading 2/10
of 1% higher against the US Dollar. NYMEX crude is trading 7/10 of 1% lower
and holding on to the $80/barrel level. Gold is up nearly 1/2 of 1% while
silver is 1.8% higher. Base metals finally decided to take advantage of the
lower Dollar, and nearly all ended the session higher. Indicator charts show
nickel stumbled early, but then began a slow, gradual climb that lasted the
rest of the session. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.30/lb. Nickel inventories
stored in LME approved warehouses slipped for a second consecutive day overnight,
bringing the total decrease off Monday's record high to less than 150 tonnes.
Sucden's day old chart shows nickel trading thru yesterday
(chart here). The Baltic Dry Index rose 15 points to 3,175.
(Dow Jones) Russia exported 221,100 metric tons of nickel in January-November,
some 4.1% less than in January-November 2008, the federal customs service
reported Wednesday.
Economists’ Views on Interest Rates, Housing Bubble -
more
Competition for Positions Intensifies as Job Openings Decline -
more
US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program -
figures
here
Is China's tightening move a milestone in monetary policy? -
more
Metals May Gain 32%
in 2010, Morgan Stanley Forecasts - Metal prices may average 32 percent
higher this year because of strengthening industrial production, driven by
growth in China, said Morgan Stanley. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.01/lb
higher, with other
base metals mixed and quiet. The Euro is trading over 1/2 of 1% higher against
the US Dollar, throwing a monkey wrench in yesterday's base metal sell off.
NYMEX crude futures are down 9/10 of 1% and just over $80/barrel. Gold and
silver see to be the only metal commodities taking advantage of the lower
Dollar so far today, with gold up nearly 6/10 of 1% and silver higher by
more than 9/10 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower with
China off more than 3%. European markets are trading slightly higher this
morning, although Germany's Federal Statistics Office reported that Europe's
biggest economy most likely stagnated in the 4th quarter of 2009. US futures
are up this morning. Nickel inventories slipped by a small amount for a second
day, and the BDI's daily figures have yet to be published.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals fell sharply on Tuesday,
as the markets never recovered from the surprising Chinese news about reserve
requirements being raised. Copper sank to a two-week lows, as did lead, while
zinc and nickel both plunged to three-week lows. However, despite
yesterday’s sizable sell-off and today’s mixed tone, most of the
metals are still comfortably within their long-term upchannels, as the charts
in today’s attachment illustrate. We would therefore need to see further
selling before the technicals start to deteriorate meaningfully. With the
weaker dollar not providing much upside firepower these days, (it is off
again today, but could not hold off a round of earlier selling in Shanghai),
metals will have to coalesce around other bullish variables, but apart from
the technicals, this may be hard to find. Granted, the Chinese import numbers
looked impressive yesterday, but they did not bolster the markets, as investors
are perhaps having serious questions about whether these trends are sustainable.
Already some key metal consuming sectors in China are expected to cool off.
Automobile sales, for example, are expected to be up by a modest 5-10% this
year, down sharply from 2009's heady 50% growth rate. Much of last year's
increase was fueled by attractive tax incentives and rebates, and these are
unlikely to be offered again this year. Demand in the western countries,
while improving, is still not that strong to justify continued price advances,
and most disturbingly for the bulls, LME inventories continue to rise,
particularly in copper’s case. Finally, on the supply side, we are seeing
more producers expanding or starting up production after a sharp, but brief,
retrenchment seen in late 2008 and early 2009. All this suggests that we
could very well start to see the formation of a trading range in a number
of metals over the next few months, as the argument for another push higher,
at least for now, looks harder to justify. ... Nickel is at $17,860,
up $160. We are watching to see whether prices will recover back over $18,000
today in order to keep the minor short-term upchannel (in red) intact.
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) Jinchuan Group Ltd., China's largest nickel producer, lowered
its ex-works refined nickel price by RMB 4,000 ($585.88) to RMB 139,000
($20,359.44) per ton on Jan. 13, following six consecutive price increases
since mid-December 2009.
(MBiz) According to the data from the Stainless Steel Council of China
Special Steel Enterprises Association (SSC), China's stainless steel production
recorded high to 8.6mln tons in 2009, hiking by 25% than last year. Stainless
steel consumption also went up around 30% to more than 8.1mln tons.
(JMD) POSCO to Raise Output Rate of 400 series Stainless to 40%
(PT) Customs: Russia’s nickel exports down 4.3% in Jan–Nov 2009
(JMD) Cold-rolled Ni stainless steel sheet/ Recovers price for Asia
(SO) On January 12, employees of El-Hajar-based ArcelorMittal Annaba, Algerian
subsidiary of the world's largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal, began a strike
for an indefinite period, halting production at the steel plant.
(WSJ) Commodity Prices Threaten Economic Recovery
Recovery and Globality: The Commodities Chase -
more
(CD) Bank reserve ratio raised to curb lending -
more
(SSY) Chinese passenger car sales rose by 53% year-on-year to an all-time
high of 10.3 million units in 2009, according to China’s Association
of Automobile Manufacturers.
(Peter Boockvar) 1/12 - On Dec 31st, the fed funds futures priced in a 78%
chance of a 25 bps rate hike by June. Today, prior to the auction, the odds
fell to 12%, thus making today’s (3 year note) auction more enticing
even as the absolute yield is at a 3 week low
(FOX) The top officials of the state electric utilities in the capital of
Caracas and two other western states on Tuesday announced plans for four-hour
outages every other day. Electricity Minister Angel Rodriguez says the rationing
plan is necessary to prevent water levels in Guri Dam from falling to critical
levels and causing a widespread power collapse.
Rusina: Deal
To Resume Nickel Laterite Shipments - Minerals explorer Rusina Mining NL
said Wednesday it's set to resume shipments of nickel laterite ore from its
Acoje tenements on the island of Luzon in the Philippines in a sign of improved
market conditions. -
more
Tati nickel mine
poised for longer life - Tati Nickel Mine, which recovers copper, nickel
and cobalt, is located a few kilometers west of Francistown in the northern
part of Botswana whose operations date back to 1999 in the country. -
more
Posco Expanding
Globally - Posco plans to add supply-chain management (SCM) units at its
overseas production bases, including four in the U.S., India and China this
year. -
more
India may limit
some private sector mining-paper - The Indian government is considering a
proposal to restrict mining in tribal areas by private sector companies,
The Economic Times reported on Wednesday. -
more
Nickel - Making Your
Life Better (this week we will be showing one video a day of interest
to those in the nickel & stainless steel industry)
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Steelworkers union to file 'bad-faith' bargaining complaint against Vale
Inco - The United Steelworkers union says it will file a bad-faith bargaining
complaint against Vale Inco. -
more
Steelworkers up the ante - United Steelworkers is marking the sixth-month
anniversary of its strike against Vale Inco Ltd. with a parade and a flurry
of paper, but neither is the ticker-tape variety. -
more
China Lose Control of Iron Ore Supply Negotiation - Global iron ore giants
like Vale, Rio Tinto , and BHP Billiton are negotiating with Japanese steelmakers
to reach a benchmark price. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Raises Banks' Reserve Requirement
Ratio 50 Basis Points From Jan. 18 // Japan Air Plummets by Daily Trading
Limit on Bankruptcy Filing Speculation // India's Industrial Output Growth
Accelerates at Fastest Pace in 25 Months // Ford, Geely Said to Be Close
to Agreement on Shielding Volvo Trade Secrets // Hong Kong Luxury Home Prices
to Increase 20% as Economy Expands, CBRE Says // Most Asian Stocks Rise on
China Auto Sales, Infosys Earnings; SAIC Climbs // UBS Asks Workers to Sign
Code on Tax Compliance, Secrecy to Stem Damage // Greek Markets Rattled as
EU Says Budget Deficit Forecasts Are Unreliable // U.K. House Price Gauge
Unexpectedly Weakens as New Buyer Enquiries Decline // European Stocks Drop
on Earnings; BHP, National Bank of Greece Shares Fall // Obama Plans
to Raise as Much as $120 Billion From Bank Fees to Refund TARP // U.S. Stock
Futures Drop After Alcoa Misses Estimates, China Curbs Lending // Small-Business
Confidence in U.S. Drops to Five-Month Low on Sales Outlook // Federal Reserve
Seeks to Protect U.S. Bailout Secrets Against Court Ruling // General Motors
Studies How to Boost Output as Supply of `Hot' Models Drops // Trade Deficit
in U.S. Widens More Than Economists Forecast on Oil Imports // Stocks, Oil
Drop as Treasuries Rally on Concern Economic Recovery to Slow
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, but by less than
1/10 of 1% at the moment. NYMEX crude is down 1-1/4%, gold is off nearly
1-1/4%, and silver is lower by 1-1/2%. Base metals finished their session
lower across the board after China raised reserve requirements for banks,
and traders feared Chinese growth might chill. Indicator charts show nickel
fell early, gradually slid for much of the day until it found a bottom in
late afternoon. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.03/lb. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME warehouses fell slightly overnight from their record high.
The Baltic Dry Index gained 12 points to 3,160. Effective tomorrow, we are
adding temporary links to our morning briefing in reference to the Xstrata
and First Nickel negotiations going on in Canada, to supplement the coverage
on the Vale strike.
(Dow Jones) U.S. nickel exports rose 149.3% in November from the previous
month, and was up 376.1% from the previous year, the Commerce Department
reported Tuesday.
(Dow Jones) -U.S. nickel imports fell 3.8% in November from last month,
but was up 15.8% from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported
Tuesday.
Top 100 Mining Companies: What a difference a year makes -
more
Barry Ritholtz - Alcoa reported a Q4 2009 loss of $277 million loss, on lower
sales and higher costs. Losses narrowed from a year ago when they were $1.2
billion dollars. Pro forma operating profits were 1 cent, missing analysts
estimates of a 6 cent profit, and begging the question of HTF can you report
a per share profit on a quarter billion dollar loss? The analyst and accounting
industries should hang their head in shame, and reach for a wakizashi to
perform Seppuku, being the only honorable thing to do after the great shame
brought upon their houses.
Melbourne Swelters Through Hottest Night in a Century -
more
The Unofficial List of Pundits/Experts Who Were Wrong on the Housing Bubble
-
more
Federal Reserve’s Record 2009 Earnings: $45B -
more
Industrial metals
fall on China move, stronger dollar - Industrial metals fell on Tuesday
with copper dropping to a one-week low due to a stronger dollar, signs of
monetary tightening in China, and lower than expected results from major
aluminium producer Alcoa. -
more
First Nickel -
Bargaining Update - Jan 8th, 2010 -
pdf here
Demand
to Return to the Nickel Market in 2010 - The fallout from the financial crisis
that afflicted the world economy has seen nickel prices fluctuate wildly.
LME prices peaked at just over US$52,000/t in May 2007, on the back of strong
demand and low stocks, but had fallen by over 80% by the end of 2008, as
demand collapsed. -
more
ThyssenKrupp says
steel output stabilises further - Germany's biggest steelmaker ThyssenKrupp
said on Tuesday capacity utilisation in its steel factories and production
volumes have stabilised further as it managed to raise prices for some products.
-
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.06/lb
, with all base metals
lower in morning trading. The US Dollar is trading a little over 1/10 of
1% higher against the Euro this morning. NYMEX crude futures are down over
1-1/3% and under $81.50/barrel. Gold opened nearly 3/10 of 1% lower while
silver is off nearly the same. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended
a tad lower, with China up by 1-1/2%. European markets are lower this morning
after earnings from Alcoa Inc. missed analysts’ estimates and China
raised reserve requirements for the nation’s lenders. US futures are
also lower. Nickel inventories slipped slightly over night and the BDI
has yet to be reported. The ICSC-Goldman's same-store sales showed a 3% week
on week drop for the January 9th week. And the Commerce Dept has just reported
the trade deficit widened by 9.7% in November to $36.4 billion.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices ended up on Monday,
buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong Chinese import data, but a late-day
fade in energy prices and a lackluster session in the US stock markets helped
trim the gains. Moreover, the copper markets were wary about comments made
by Chile's Mining Minister when he told Reuters in an exclusive interview
Monday that global copper prices could see an "important" downward correction
as inventories continue to climb. We have been saying the same thing for
some time now, but when such a development will set in remains to be seen,
as copper stocks have been rising for several months now with no meaningful
impact on pricing. We have opened on a sharply lower note as of this writing,
as a slightly firmer dollar and a round of profit-taking is finally setting
in. .... Despite very strong-looking technicals, (particularly on the
weekly charts), many metals have done too much, too quickly, and are due
for a modest correction from here. However, it remains to be seen whether
this latest round of selling is going to be a drawn-out affair or reverse
itself in short order. Much will likely depend on what the equity markets
do; if they see a decent correction as well, the dollar could strengthen,
pressuring commodities in the process. Another complex we are keeping an
eye on is crude oil; after apparently breaking out of its trading range on
Friday, prices are now retracing quickly, possibly rendering the previous
break higher as being a false one. ... Nickel is at $17,748, down $142, and
close to its lows for the day. We are watching to see whether $18,000 support
will hold a two-day closing basis. (read Ed Meir's complete morning
base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) Most LME metals are trading above "fair value" but they could
continue to do so for some time, says Citi analyst David Thurtell. Thurtell
adds that fresh fund buying at the start of the year boosted metal prices
but the poor employment data last Friday "took some of its heat."
(Yieh) According to Indian Jindal Stainless Ltd, its stainless steel production
center with capacity of 1.6 million tons in Orissa will be completed in March
2014. The annual production of Jindal Stainless will be increased to 2.5
million tons in 2014 and it will cement their position as the largest stainless
steel maker in India.
(Yieh) Market analyst said that t China’s steel shipment to the US in
2009 is predicted to fall due to anti-dumping duties.
(RM) Nickel consumption in Russia will double, according to the forecasts
of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia. By 2011 it will increase
by 21.4% and by 2010 it will increase by 2.1 times.
(SBB) Chinese stainless 304 prices slip $29-44/t
(MH) For the first 11 months of 2009, China increased imports of high-carbon
ferrochrome to a record high. It is estimated that the supply of these products
in January-November last year compared with the same period of 2008,
grew by 87.9% to $ 1.97 million tons.
(MBiz) MetalBiz reported that POSCO plans to produce 138,000 tonnes of stainless
steel in January 2010, closing to December production.
(Interfax) Baoshan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. (Baosteel), the Shanghai Stock
Exchange-listed subsidiary of China's leading steelmaker Baosteel Group,
announced on Jan. 12 it has signed long-term cooperation contracts with two
major Chinese ferromolybdenum producers.
(BO) Norilsk-Nickel has opened a logistics office in Rotterdam to serve the
company’s cargo transport between Europe and the Arctic port of Dudinka.
(SO) China's iron ore imports in December totaled 62.16 million mt, up 11.09
million mt month on month and up 80.02 percent year on year, according to
newly-issued figures. In 2009, China's iron ore imports came to 628 million
mt, up 41.6 percent year on year.
(MDM) November U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $178.83
million, according to the American Machine Tool Distributors' Association
and the Association for Manufacturing Technology. This total, as reported
by companies participating in the USMTC program, was up 16% from October
but down 16.2% from the total of $213.50 million reported for November 2008.
Aggressive Purchases
Of Chrome Ores By China Have Caused To Rise Its Prices = Eti Krom / Turkey
Has Contracted With China On 140,000 Tons Of Chrome Ore - The domestic market
of ferro-chrome in China has changed considerably in the course of December
of 2009. The domestic price (on Cr 50% base) of high carbon ferro-chrome
in China has risen to CNY7,700 - 7,800 per ton as of the end of December,
which is CNY200 - 300 per ton higher than that prevailed at the beginning
of December. -
more
Nickel industry
slowly recovering - There are signs the nickel industry is recovering in
Western Australian with one new miner producing its first ore. -
more
Mine disputes may
prompt metal price spikes in 2010 - Global prices for some metals may spike
at times later this year if workers, in some cases emboldened by high prices
and lucrative pay deals elsewhere, demand better packages and strike at key
operations. -
more
Mining company
quits project after Church campaign - Anglo-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton
has pulled out of a nickel mining project in the Philippines following a
campaign by the Catholic Agency for Overseas Development (CAFOD), the English
member of Caritas International. -
more
Mining bidding
wars hint at M&A spree to come - A spate of hotly contested takeover
deals in Canada's mining patch and steadily rising metal prices may drive
busy dealmaking in 2010 after a lull in acquisitions last year, experts say.
-
more
Courtesy AISI - In
the week ending January 9, 2010, domestic raw steel production was 1,525,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 63.9 percent. Production
was 1,016,000 tons in the week ending January 9, 2009, while the capability
utilization then was 42.6 percent. The current week production represents
a 50.1 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending January 9, 2010 is up 3.9 percent from the previous week
ending January 2, 2010 when production was 1,468,000 tons and the rate of
capability utilization was 61.5 percent.
Many Uses of Stainless
Steel (this week we will be showing one video a day of interest to those
in the nickel & stainless steel industry)
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Smoke may be visible from stack during preparations to resume production
- People who thought they saw smoke coming from Vale Inco's Superstack on
Sunday were not seeing things. -
more
Police complete probe into Rio Tinto - Police yesterday finished their
investigation of four Rio Tinto Group executives, including Australian Stern
Hu, and sent the case to the local prosecutors. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Ends U.S.'s 100-Year Reign as
Biggest Auto Market on 46% Sales Surge // Bernanke Bond Premium Highest Since
2007 Shows U.S. Decoupling From Europe // Japan Airlines Is Set for
Bankruptcy as Hatoyama Abandons Bailout Policies // Stocks, Commodities Advance
as China Imports Soar to Record; Dollar Falls // Heineken to Buy Femsa Beer
Unit in All-Stock Deal Valued at $7.7 Billion // Trichet Says Global Banks
Must Improve Risk Management After Credit Crisis // Dollar Declines to Three-Week
Low Versus Euro on Signs of Global Recovery // Telefonica Falls Most in Two
Months as Venezuela Devalues Bolivar By 50% // IMF Sends Team to Greece to
Assist Government in Tackling Budget Deficit // European Stocks Retreat
From a 15-Month High; Telefonica, Thales Decline // Dollar No Match for Aussie,
Loonie Approaching Parity as Commodities Rally // Federal Reserve Seeks Court
Help to Block Release of U.S. Bailout Secrets // Bank Profits Tripling Leaves
Stocks Cheapest With 15% Discount to S&P 500 // Geithner Retains Support
of Obama, Democratic Leaders Amid AIG Controversy // U.S. Stocks Fluctuate
as P&G Falls on Venezuela's Devaluation, Alcoa Rises
The Euro continues to trade higher against the US Dollar, by about 7/10 of
1% at the moment. NYMEX crude is trading 1/4 of 1% lower, and at $82.55/barrel.
Gold is up nearly 1.2% and silver is higher by less than a full percent.
Base metals all ended the day in the green, but some didn't end the day as
well as they looked like they might. Indicator charts show nickel took off
at the opening, only to start a long slide that lasted to the end of the
trading session. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.11/lb, two cents higher than
Friday's close. Inventories of nickel stored in LME warehouse rose dramatically
over the weekend, and now sit well over the 158,700 tonne level and at a
new record high. Sucden's day old nickel chart shows nickel's correction
last Thursday and Friday
(chart here). The Baltic Dry Index rose 8 points to 3,148
with 2 of the 3 sub indexes in the green. Wall Street is in a back and forth
mood as fourth quarter earnings begin after trading this evening. The VIX,
however, continues to slide, reflecting no undo concern in the marketplace.
(MB) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel plans to produce 2.8 million tonnes of
stainless steel this year, up 17% from 2009. China's biggest stainless steel
mill also plans to "further enhance control" over raw material resources
including iron ore, coal, chrome and nickel, although it did not elaborate
on this.
The Washington State Department of Financial Institutions has seized a bank
and a credit union, The Wall Street Journal reports. Bellingham-based Horizon
Bank and Bakersfield-based Kern Central Credit Union were the first two bank
failures in the year. There were 140 in 2009, and 25 in 2008.
America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels -
more
The Most Stunning (and Uncommented on) Revelation in Too Big Too Fail -
more
Compare countries' house-price data over time -
more
Vale to restart
Sudbury smelter despite strike - Vale will soon restart its Sudbury, Ontario,
smelter for the first time since a strike at the operation began during the
summer, the Brazilian mining company said on Monday. -
more
Allergy to mobile
phones caused by nickel - Nickel in mobile phone casings is being blamed
for new cases of otherwise unexplained unilateral dermatitis on the face.
-
more
European Nickel
partially divests Toledo Mining stake - Emerging mid-tier nickel laterite
producer European Nickel has sold 2.5 million Toledo Mining (AIM: TMC) shares
to a strategic investor. -
more
Major Nickel Resource Potential for Mindoro in Philippines - Mindoro Resources
Ltd. is pleased to announce an Exploration Target on its northern Surigao
Projects of from 50 to 70 million dry metric tonnes (DMT) in a grade range
of 0.9 percent to 1.2 percent nickel and 28 to 32 percent iron (combined
limonite and saprolite). -
more
Orissa reviews progress
of steel projects - In a bid to remove the irritants the steel projects have
been facing, the Orissa government has decided to hold meeting of steel company
top executive, all the line department officials of the state government
and other stakeholders every fourth Saturday of the month. -
more
Iron Ore Contract
Price May Rise as Much as 50%, Nomura Says - The iron ore contract price
is set to increase 40 percent to 50 percent in 2010 after a surge in the
cost of the steelmaking ingredient for immediate delivery on the so-called
spot market, Nomura Holdings Inc. said. -
more
Insurers caution
about NiMH batteries - The U.K. Protection and Indemnity Club and TT Club
are drawing attention to potential hazards when transporting nickel metal
hydride batteries on containerships. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.20/lb
higher, with all base
metals trading higher this morning. The Euro is trading 8/10 of 1%
higher against the US Dollar, helping commodities trade higher. NYMEX crude
futures are trading 1-1/4% higher and are approaching $84/barrel. Gold is
up 1-2/3% and silver is higher by the same. Asian markets ended higher overnight
with China up slightly. European markets are trading higher this morning
after China reported exports climbed 17.7% from a year earlier, the
first increase in 14 months, with imports surging 55.9%. US futures
show a higher opening on tap for Wall Street. Nickel inventories rose by
a large number over the weekend, and the BDI rose 8 points.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals fell on Friday, but prices
recovered off their worst levels of the day after a weaker-than-forecast
US jobs report hit the dollar hard. In fact, the greenback suffered its biggest
loss against a basket of six currencies in more than six weeks. The jobs
reading showed employers cutting 85,000 jobs in December, much more than
both the consensus forecast, as well as our own projection calling for an
upside surprise. November payrolls did show a revised increase of 4,000 jobs--
the first gain, however puny, since 2007. However, there was not much else
that was reassuring in the report; unemployment remained stuck at 10%, but
would have been higher were it not for the fact that so many people simply
stopped looking for work and were technically not counted as unemployed.
Including this category, as well as the thousands of underemployed in part-time
jobs, the truer unemployment figure is closer to a staggering 17%. With the
dollar weaker as of this writing, (trading at 1.4540 against the Euro), and
not much in the way of US macro news out over the next two days, the bulls
have free rein today, with both metals and energy markets sharply higher.
The commodity markets are teeing off news out of China showing a sharp jump
in trade. China’s exports surged in December, up 17.7% from a year earlier
for its first increase in 14 months, while imports jumped 55.9%. The year-on-year
comparisons are being magnified somewhat by the tumble that began in late
2008 when the global credit crisis first got underway, but the bounce
nevertheless is seen as making China help the world economy get back on its
feet. With the December surge in exports, China has now overtaken Germany
as the world's top exporter. ... Nickel is at $18,400, up $500, and
still struggling to break outside its trading range capped at $21,500
resistance. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) The total volume of China's steel product exports rose to 3.34
million tons in December 2009, up 17.19 percent month-on-month, according
to preliminary statistics released by the General Administration of Customs
(GAC) on Jan. 10.
(FA) Steel Market Intelligence in a research note citing unnamed press reported
that China's top steelmaker Baosteel has raised benchmark flat rolled steel
prices for February delivery by 5%.
(AB) China's daily crude steel output remained resilient in the last ten
days of December, reaching 1.645 million tonnes, just 1.5 percent short of
an August all-time high, according to industry consultancy Mysteel.
(Reuters) South Korea's POSCO forecast on Monday global steel demand would
rise about 10% in in 2010, recovering to 2008 levels.
(ITA) Friday - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers in November unexpectedly jumped
by the most in five years, signaling companies are picking up the pace of
orders as sales improve. The 1.5 percent gain in stockpiles, the most since
October 2004, followed a revised 0.6 percent rise in October that was larger
than previously estimated, figures from the Commerce Department showed today
in Washington.
(CD) There will be no question of China surpassing Germany as the world's
largest exporter in 2009, based on the nation's higher-than-expected performance
on exports in December, said analysts.
(CD) China's foreign trade in 2009 dropped 13.9 percent from a year earlier
to $2.21 trillion and its trade surplus last year slid 34.2 percent year-on-year
to $196.1 billion, according to figures released Sunday by the General
Administration of Customs (GAC).
Rio Tinto To
Start Work In Indonesia's Lasamphala Nickel Project - PT Rio Tinto Indonesia
said it will start this year work in its Rp18 trillion (US$1.93 billion)
nickel mining project in Lasamphala in the border area of Central and Southeast
Sulawesi provinces. -
more
Domestic Price Of
Ni-Based Stainless Scrap Passes Over Year On Level Of Yen 140,000/Ton = Large
Melting Furnace Installed At Yawata Works Of Nippon Steel Is Scheduled To
Operate From March / 10 - The market price of nickel-based stainless steel
scrap (new clippings) to be collected by dealers from domestic sources of
Japan had bottomed out by Yen 135,000 per ton and, then, has risen up to
a level of Yen 140,000 - 145,000 per ton in December, on which this year
is passing over. -
more
Steel consumption
may further expand - A senior official at the National Development and Reform
Commission said the arrival of a new round of economic growth in China would
require more steel than ever before. -
more
DJ Western Areas
Says Ramp Up On Track, Drill Results Positive - Western Areas NL said Monday
the delivery of new production at its Forrestania nickel project is on track
and that recent drilling results have exceeded expectations. -
more
How It's Made - Stainless
Steel (this week we will be showing one video a day of interest to those
in the nickel & stainless steel industry)
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Iron Ore Imports Surging in China Strengthen BHP, Rio’s Hand - Iron
ore imports by China, the largest buyer, surged 22 percent in December to
the second- highest on record, strengthening the ability of BHP Billiton
Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA to ask for higher prices. -
more
(AP) Detained Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu could find out on Monday if he
will face a Chinese court on espionage charges.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Weekend, January 9/10
Research
- China imports (thru November 2009)
All of this stats were obtained from Chinese government figures released
in late December for 2009 thru November.
Thru November, China's output of nickel stod at 195,871.06 tons, 14.4% higher
than thru Nov 2008.
Nickel ore imports - (total January thru November 2009) (#1) Philippines
54.9% (#2) Indonesia 41.9% (#3) Australia 1.26% (#4) Russia (#5) Spain (#6)
South Africa = 14,839,215 tons - 28% more than same period last year
Refined nickel imports - (total January thru November 2009) (#1) Russian
33.4% (#2) Australia 19% (#3) Canada 17% (#4) Norway 15.6% (#5) South Africa
3.6% (#6) Finland (#7) Japan 236,608 tonnes - 120% more than last year
Chrome Ore imports - (total Janaury thru November 2009) (#1) South Africa
38.5% (#2) Turkey 18.7% (#3) Oman 6.8%) (#4) India (#5) Mozambique (#6) Pakistan
(#7) Iran = 6,151,466 tons
Ferrochrome imports min 4% carbon - (total January thru November 2009) (#1)
South Africa 43.4% (#2) Kazakhstan 28.6% (#3) India 15.8% (#4) Mozambique
(#5) Turkey (#6) South Korea = 1,967,513 tons
Nickel mine
a 'nightmare' - Conservationists have labelled a proposed nickel mine in
northern Tasmania a "nightmare" project. -
more
Smelter restart
this month: Vale - It is a "safe bet" that Vale Inco Ltd. will restart its
Copper Cliff Smelter Complex -- at least in part -- by the end of the month.
-
more
Unhappy anniversary: Valey Inco strike approaches six-months - For 30 years,
the 8 1/2-month strike by United Steelworkers Local 6500 against Inco was
the yardstick by which all labour disputes at the nickel company were measured.
-
more
Ventura Sec bearish
on copper, zinc, nickel - NS Ramaswamy, Head Commodities of Ventura Securities
is bearish on nickel, zinc and copper. He advises investors to sell these
commodities -
more
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
(Yieh) It is reported that Indian Orissa government has approved 19 projects
including two new stainless steel projects which initiated by JSL and Adhunik
Mettalick. These two stainless steel plants could take advantage of the chromium
iron resources in Orissa because most main chromium iron makers locate here.
JSL will build a stainless steel plant with an annual production of 800,000
tons in Orissa and the stainless steel output will reach 2.5 to 2.6 million
tons per year.
(MW) U.S. consumers sharply reduced their debt in November, the Federal Reserve
reported Friday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt fell $17.49 billion,
or at a 8.5% annual rate, in November to $2.46 trillion. This is the record
tenth straight monthly drop in consumer credit.
BlackRock's Doll: Forget inflation, buy stocks -
more
Shrinking U.S. Labor Force Keeps Unemployment Rate From Rising -
more
If you don't appreciate
crude humor, skip this one, but it was just too funny to let go. While we
are true believers in stainless steel as the answer to many difficulties
engineers and architects may confront, it is not the answer to all of life's
little problems. You have heard us refer to "nickel being in a pickle" before
but never have we had a story about a "pickle in nickel" The story headline
says it all "Man gets genitals stuck in pipe" -
story(Fireman to idiot - "is that a pipe in your
pocket or you just glad to see us?")
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Japan Airlines Slumps for Third Day
as Kan Declines to Rule Out Bankruptcy // China Begins Stimulus Exit, May
Raise Main Interest Rate in Third Quarter // China Mobile Fires Vice Chairman
Over `Serious Financial Irregularities' // Stocks Rise Around World
on Speculation U.S. Job Losses Ended; Metals Fall // Jobless Rate in
Europe Rises to 10%, Highest Level in More Than 11 Years // Eastern Europe
Won't Find a Quick Fix to Currency Risk, Fitch Ratings Says // European IPOs
May More Than Triple as Private Equity, States Plan Sales // European Stocks
Increase for Fourth Week; Deutsche Bank, Barclays Advance // Bank of America
Sees Record Bonus for Top Performers, No Increase in Total // Banks Are Told
by U.S. to Take Precautions Against Risk of Rising Rates // U.S. Lost 85,000
Jobs in December; November Payrolls Revision Shows a Gain // Bear Stearns
Disappears Two Years After Collapse With JPMorgan Name Change // AK Steel,
U.S. Steel Advance After JPMorgan Boosts Share-Price Estimates
The SU Dollar has faltered since the US Labor report was issued, and is now
trading 2/3 of 1% lower against the Euro. NYMEX crude is up 1/2 of 1% and
over $83/barrel. Gold is up shy of 2/10 of 1% and silver is nearly 8/10 of
1% higher. Base metals all got a bounce from the suddenly falling Dollar,
but it wasn't enough to pull any of them positive for long. Indicator charts
show nickel fell early, got a big bounce from the Dollar dive, but
then began its own decline. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the
day and week at $8.09/lb. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME approved warehouses rose overnight, and now rest just a few
tonnes shy of the 159,000 tonne level. The Baltic Dry Index fell 9 points
to 3,140. Immediately following the disappointing payroll data was issued
in Washington, the Dollar plunged and gold spiked. On the sudden strength
in the Euro, commodities started moving higher from morning struggles. While
some are dismissing the employment news out today as a fluke, it was difficult
to find anyone yesterday, including some of the ultra bears, who did not
expect to see the numbers fall this morning. The all important number, hours
worked, stalled at 33.2 hours. This number is watched as a clue to future
hiring plans. Nearly the only bright spot to the report was a revision in
November numbers from a los to a job gain of 4000 jobs. This would make November
the lone bright spot to 2009, and the first increase in two years. Wall
Street is down slightly but according to the decrease in teh volatility index
today, markets are running unconcerned.
US Labor Department Employment Situation Summary -
more
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
(MBiz) The international nickel price starts to rise, and the demand also
is increasing, supporting the stainless steel price to go up. After YUSCO
and Tang Eng on December 30, 2009 adjusted up stainless steel plate/coil
price, to reflect the cost, Taiwan stainless steel wire rod manufacturers
began to bring up the January price from January 4 by 3.2%-5.7%, up by 6
yuan per kilogram.
Fed Papers Fret Over What Comes Next For Inflation -
more
Hoenig: Fed Must Tighten ‘Sooner Rather Than Later’ -
more
Crews contain
Yabulu leak - An emergency was declared after a 6.5 million-litre chemical
tank began leaking at Yabulu nickel refinery yesterday. -
more
Areva deal
may affect New Caledonia’s SLN - The French state-controlled nuclear
engineering group Areva is about to shed its 26 percent stake in the nickel
mining company Eramet which is a key stakeholder in New Caledonia’s
SLN. -
more
Sephaku Sells
R80 Million Gold, Nickel Interests - Recently listed minerals and cement
company Sephaku Holdings had sold some of its gold and nickel interests to
investors including Hong Kong-headquartered Mandra Capital for R80m in cash,
it said yesterday. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.14/lb
lower, with other
base metals slightly lower. The US Dollar is trading 1/4 of 1% higher against
the Euro. NYMEX crude futures are off 1/3 of 1%, gold is down 8/10 of 1%,
and silver is lower by 7/10 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended
higher with China off 1/4 of1%. European markets are higher this morning,
even after news broke that unemployment in Europe rose to 10%, its highest
in over a decade. Futures show US markets are down after the Labor Department
reported job losses resumed in December, and the jobless rate stays at 10%.
Nickel inventories rose slightly overnight, and the BDI has yet to report.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Metal prices eased on Thursday
in their first significant correction in some time, as a round of profit-taking,
a slightly stronger dollar, and an unexpected rise in three-month auction
yields by the People's Bank of China, all contributed to the sell-off.
Participants will now be looking for the US non-farm payroll number out later
today to assess near-term direction. As we wrote earlier, we suspect the
number could surprise to the upside (expectations are for a decline of 35,000
jobs), in which case the dollar could add to yesterday's gains and possibly
pressure commodities somewhat lower. The greenback is now below $1.43, and
already putting pressure on both metals and energy. Metals are also down
on reports of more stock increases, with the big surprise coming from China
where zinc stocks were up a massive 50,000 tons on the week. There is also
much talk that index rebalancing will start this week. The buzz is that copper
could see its share in the indices scaled back given the massive returns
it has generated in 2009. This is quite likely, as typically the commodities
with the biggest gains are the ones that are pared back. Indeed, the
Reuters-Jeffries CRB chart in our attachment shows copper's prominent position
in the 2009 rankings, and from the looks of things, we suspect that some
of the laggards, like grains and natural gas, will ones whose share may be
lifted going forward. ... Nickel is at $18,150, down $305. Nickel never pushed
beyond its trading range and prices now seem to be retracing back into the
middle part of the range. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base
metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) An estimated 8,100 lots of zinc and 1,900 lots of nickel will
be sold in index reweightings, a significant portion of weekly volumes. This
is equivalent to 202,500 metric tons of zinc and 11,400 tons of nickel--about
41% of LME zinc stocks and 7% of nickel inventories. The Dow Jones
UBS Commodity Index, which the latest available data revealed has about $43
billion invested in financial products tracking 19 physical commodities,
is by fat the most important index to be reweighted. The reweighting takes
place between the fifth and ninth trading day of the year, which means it
will begin Friday and end Jan. 14.
(CK) China's steel industry realized profits of RMB 143.3 billion in the
first 11 months of last year, according to statistics released by the Ministry
of Industry and Information Technology yesterday.
(MDM) Worthington Industries, Inc., Columbus, OH, reported sales of $448
million for the second quarter ended Nov. 30, 2009, a decline of 40% over
the same period a year ago. Profit was $23.2 million, compared to a year
ago loss of $164.7 million.
(Yieh) According to the data from the Stainless Steel Council of China Special
Steel Enterprises Association (SSC), stainless steel output in China recorded
high to 8.6 million tons in 2009, a 25 percent increase from last year. Stainless
steel consumption also rose about 30 percent to more than 8.1 million tons.
(Interfax) The Henan Provincial Nonferrous Metals Geological and Mineral
Resources Bureau has discovered an iron ore deposit with an estimated 4 billion
tons of reserves in Liberia, state media reported on Jan. 8.
Think the great paper vs plastic controversy at your grocery store was too
much - look at this battle brewing between pallet manufacturers -
Plastic
vs
Wood
and the
recall. Expect to hear a lot more about this in the future.
The economic 'experts' who stopped making sense -
more
'Panic buying' by
Chinese fuels surge in commodity prices - Australian resource exporters are
struggling to keep up with surging Chinese demand, pushing prices to levels
not seen since before the financial crisis. -
more
Palmer takes
control of Pacific Nickel - Queensland mining magnate Clive Palmer has taken
control of Gladstone Pacific Nickel Ltd (GPN), which is developing a
multi-billion dollar nickel and cobalt refinery at the Port of Gladstone.
-
more
Domestic Price Of
Ni-Based Stainless Scrap Passes Over Year On Level Of Yen 140,000/Ton = Large
Melting Furnace Installed At Yawata Works Of Nippon Steel Is Scheduled To
Operate From March / 10 - The market price of nickel-based stainless steel
scrap (new clippings) to be collected by dealers from domestic sources of
Japan had bottomed out by Yen 135,000 per ton and, then, has risen up to
a level of Yen 140,000 - 145,000 per ton in December, on which this year
is passing over. -
more
County OKs mining
road agreement - Ending more than a year of negotiations, the Coos County
Board of Commissioners has signed a road improvement agreement with the
Portland-based company that plans to mine chromite ore south of Bandon. -
more
US Steel adds to its
complaint against Chinese steel imports - In another federal petition, U.S.
Steel Corp. (NYSE:X) said Thursday that it wants duties placed retroactively
on seamless standard, line and pressure pipe that is imported from China
if a federal trade commission finds that the Asian nation is dumping the
product into the American market. -
more
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Iron Ore Price in China Rises to Highest Since 2008 on Demand - The cash
price of iron ore delivered to China, the world’s biggest buyer, jumped
to at least a 13- month high amid rising demand from steelmakers. -
more
What next in China's Rio Tinto investigation? - China's probe into
four detained Rio Tinto employees, including Australian national Stern Hu,
is set to move forward next week, when investigators could decide to extend
the investigation, seek prosecution or drop charges. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Chinese Central Bank Guides Bill Yields
Higher in `Signal of Tightening' // Vietnam, Nigeria, Kazakhstan Among `Cheap'
Frontier Markets, Mobius Says // Stocks, Metals Decline Around World After
China Curbs Lending; Yen Weakens // European December Confidence Rises
to Highest Level Since Lehman Collapse // Central Bankers Will Gather With
Private Lenders at BIS Session in Basel // RBS Said to Receive Three Offers
for Stake in Sempra Commodities Venture // European Stocks Are Little Changed;
Metro Declines, Autonomy, SAP Advance // Geithner's New York Fed Told AIG
to Withhold Details of Payments to Banks // Treasury 10-Year Yield Premium
Over Two-Year Notes Nears Widest Since 1990 // GM Chief Whitacre Predicts
Return to 2010 Profit After Five Annual Losses // Last-Minute Holiday `Surge'
Pushes December Retail Sales Above Estimates // Initial Unemployment Claims
in U.S. Climb Less Than Estimated to 434,000
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, by nearly 6.10
of 1% at the moment. NYMEX crude is down a little over 4/10 of 1% and under
$83/barrel. Gold is off nearly 7/10 of 1% while silver is higher by 2/10
of 1%. Base metals all ended the day lower. Indicator charts show nickel
began falling at the opening, and staggered lower thur all of the day. Dow
Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.37/lb
. Inventories
of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses rose to a new record high overnight,
and now sit well over the 158,500 tonne level. For those watching to see
if Russian exports to Rotterdam are falling after the New Year, none of the
overnight gain was attributed to this warehouse. Sucden's day old chart shows
nickel trading thru yesterday
(chart here). The news out of China that the Central Bank
was tightening credit came as a blow to metals traders, and the rising Dollar
hit today's trading with a double whammy. As one trader told Dow Jones, the
market has become so full of froth caused by funds buying, it needed a reality
check to calm down. The Baltic Dry Index fell 110 points to 3,149. Unemployment
numbers for last week were issued and while they rose by 1000 over the prior
week, the number of continuing claims fell 179,000 to 4,802,000, the lowest
number since the end of January 2008. Retail sales for December climbed higher
than expected.
(MBiz) Shanxi Taiyuan Stainless Steel (TISCO) will maintain 304 and 430 series
of stainless steel price unchanged this week. Market observers said that
as the nickel price surged a week ago, TISCO lifted products prices greatly,
but raw material prices dropped last week.
Metal Bulletin is reporting moly oxide prices are selling within a range
of $12.75 to $13/lb, up $1.50 in two weeks, while ferromolybdenum is selling
$1.75/lb higher, at $14.75 and $15.25/lb.
(ABIX) Listed resources groups Western Areas and Kagara have an agreement
for the Lounge Lizard nickel operation of the latter in Western Australia.
Western Areas mines and processes the ore, of which the initial 744 tonnes
has now been produced, for a fee. The joint venture has accelerated the time
to market.
(RA) In December, Russia's GDP shrunk at the slowest pace in a year - at
just 1.3% in comparison to 2.5% in November.
(CD) China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced Wednesday
that by the end of September, the outstanding amount of China's foreign debt
stood at $386.77 billion, increased $12.11 billion, or 3.23 percent from
the end of 2008. China's foreign debt rebounded for the first time since
the fourth quarter of 2008. The outstanding amount of foreign debt stood
at $360.58 billion by the end of June.
Industrial Distribution's parent company is closing the magazine, effective
today. The trade magazine has been a mainstay in the industrial distribution
market since 1911. The magazine is led by Associate Publisher/Editor Jack
Keogh and Managing Editor Victoria Fraza Kickham.
Married Couples Pay More Than Unmarried Under Health Bill -
more
Spanish unemployment at new records: 19.3% and 40% for the young -
more
Index Points to Improvements in Medium-Sized Company Profits -
more
(China) Drought poses a risk to reservoir and people -
more
POSCO to raise
2010 output; Thainox talks going well - South Korea's POSCO, the world's
No.4 steelmaker, said on Thursday it plans to produce 32 million tonnes of
crude steel this year, compared with under 30 million tonnes estimated in
2009. -
more
Official says
mining investments to hit peak - The mining industry expects investment in
the sector to peak this year due to increased investor confidence and rising
metal prices, an official of the Mines and Geosciences Bureau said Wednesday.
-
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.14/lb
lower, with all base
metals lower this morning on worries that China's Central Bank may be tightening
credit. The US Dollar is trading 7/10 of 1% higher against the Euro this
morning adding negative pressure to commodity trading. NYMEX crude futures
are down 1% to $82.35/barrel. Gold is off more than 8/10 of 1% and silver
is down 2/3 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets were lower, with China
off nearly 2%. European markets are lower this morning, while US futures
show Wall Street may open in the red. Nickel inventories rose overnight,
and the BDI fell 110 points.
Statistical Summary January 2010 - China -
pdf here
Statistical Summary January 2010 - Global -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Metals were on a tear
yesterday, with copper racing to 16-month highs while the rest of the group
notched up equally impressive gains. We must admit that we have been skeptical
--and obviously quite wrong--about the current rally for some weeks now and
still cannot make much sense of the recent run-up. Despite the price surge,
there remains an odd disconnect between overall valuations and the complex's
underlying fundamentals. Granted, the weather has been cold in China, but
this is not a game-changer for a complex where metal supply/demand surpluses
are still very much intact for the balance of the year. And although metals
demand seems to be recovering, the rally seems to have more than discounted
any such bounce some weeks ago. Most importantly, the fact that metal stocks
continue to rise tells us that demand has yet to outpace supply, a critical
requirement for a bull market. Instead, we suspect a more logical reason
for the metals rally has to do with the fact that, egged on by a struggling
dollar and a benign interest rate environment, fund money is flowing into
commodities at a heady pace and arguably contributing to bubble-like conditions
in the process. We are seeing a slight retrenchment in commodities as of
this writing. .... Nickel is at $18,880, down $275, and continues to struggle
to advance at the same rate as some of the other metals.
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) -French state-controlled nuclear power group Areva is expected
to sell its stake in French nickel mining company Eramet SA to France's sovereign
fund by the end of the first quarter, for an amount close to EUR1 billion,
a source close to the French government told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.
(Yieh) According to the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), the global
stainless steel output in the third quarter of 2009 has increased by 12.5
percent to 7.06 million tons compared to the same period of last year, showing
a recovery after the big decline since the financial crisis came. Global
stainless steel output during the first 9 month of 2009 dropped from 21.7
million tons in 2008 to 17.9 million tons.
(Interfax) Metal commodity prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have reached
their highest level in 16 months, due to market concerns over the recent
cold snap in China, an analyst told Interfax on Jan. 7.
(Reuters) South Korea's POSCO said on Thursday the world's No.4 steelmaker,
which is running at full capacity, plans to produce 32 million tonnes of
crude steel this year, compared with below 30 million tonnes estimated in
2009.
(SS) The Executive Vice President - General Stainless and a member of Outokumpu
Group's Executive Committee, Pekka Erkkilä, will join the Executive
Committee of Outotec, the Finnish based company specialized in mining and
metallurgical technology.
Some at Fed See a Need to Do More for Housing -
more
Fed Missed This Bubble. Will It See a New One? -
more
Commodities Bull Market Will Roar Like a Tiger in 2010 -
more
Market Tendency
On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 25th December 2009 = Reflecting Purchases From
Japan, All Prices Of Chinese Ferro-Alloys (Excluding Si-Mn) Are Rising -
The market tendency by item on imports of ferro-alloys into Japan at the
25th December of 2009 is as follows -
more
Major Upswing Considered Certain In East Asia's Ni-Based Stainless Market
- A major upswing is considered certain in East Asia's stainless steel market
for nickel-based CR sheets that has undergone a complete change of the
environment since late last week. -
more
Based on the Commerce
Department’s most recent Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA)
data, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that steel
import permit applications for the month of December totaled 1,326,000 net
tons (NT). - pdf
report
POSCO plans new
6 mln tonne steel plant in India - South Korea's POSCO, the world's No. 4
steelmaker, plans to set up a 6 million tonnes steel plant in south India,
in addition to its planned project in Orissa in eastern India, a company
official said on Thursday. -
more
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Iron Ore Prices Reach a High as Goldman Sees ‘Panic Buying’ -
The cash price of iron ore delivered to China, the world’s biggest buyer,
rose to the highest in more than a year amid what Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty
said was “panic buying” by steel mills. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China's Central Bank to Target Inflation,
Lending, Property Risks in 2010 // Hatoyama Hopeful Japan Finance Minister
Fujii Won't Quit on Health Grounds // Toyota, Hyundai Pace Asian Carmakers
Beating GM, Ford in U.S. Sales Lead // Asian Stocks Advance as Toyota Motor,
Nintendo Sales Fuel Growth Optimism // Papaconstantinou Says Greece Doesn't
Need Bailout as EU Examines Finances // Iceland Government Says Icesave Veto
Won't Trigger Default, Talking to IMF // UBS, Credit Suisse May Lose Loan
Leverage Exemption, Swiss Regulator Says // U.K. Consumer Confidence Falls
Most Since 2008 as Gloom on Economy Mounts // European Stocks Climb to 15-Month
High; Rio Tinto, Peugeot Rise, M&S Falls // Ford to Sell Debt Through
Fed as Program Nears Expiration at End of March // Office, Shopping Center
Construction to Plunge 13% This Year on Economy // Service Industries in
U.S. Expand Less Than Forecast; Job Reductions Ease // Metals, Natural Gas
Rally as Treasuries Fall for First Time in Three Days //
The US Dollar has faltered today, and is now trading 1/4 of 1% lower against
the Euro. NYMEX crude is now trading 1/3% higher and nearing $83/barrel.
Gold is up nearly 1.6%, while silver is 2-1/4% higher. Base metals had a
big day all trading and ending solidly higher. Indicator charts show nickel
took off at the beginning, and was on a slow gradual incline until the Dollar
went south. Traded price then made a $300 tonne jump, only to fall back sharply
as the market closed for the day. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended
the day at $8.69/lb
. Inventories
of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses slipped overnight, and remain
above 158,000 tonnes. Sucden's day old chart shows LME nickel trading thru
yesterday
(chart here). Trading during the first two weeks of a
new year can typically be highly unpredictable, with commodity
fund re-indexing a major driving force to market swings. This is usually
over by the 15th of January, when markets return to unpredictable actions
for other reasons. The Baltic Dry Index slipped 11 points overnight, with
one of its 3 sub-indexes reading negative. Molybdenum prices are making some
news, as prices have risen sharply over the last few weeks. A Dow Jones article
credits buyers rushing to get orders in before the metal begins to trade
on the London Metal Exchange next month.
(Thanks to an overseas reader) Deutsche Bank - It is challenging to get accurate
production costs for Chinese pig-iron however we estimate that costs are
around USD12,000-14,000/t (USD5.50-USD6.50/lb.) depending to some degree
on the nickel price itself. We believe that nickel pig-iron production costs
in addition to some of the higher-cost operations in more conventional nickel
mining (particularly laterite mines) represent marginal production.
We believe that this level resides at the USD14,000/t (USD6.50/lb.)
level with risks that this could rise as energy prices increase and the US
dollar weakens.
(Dow Jones) Molybdenum prices are rising as buyers re-enter the market ahead
of the launch of molybdenum futures on the London Metal Exchange in February,
traders told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday. Prices for both ferro-molybdenum
65% and molybdenum oxide have risen by more than 17.5% in the last four weeks.
(WSJ) The nonmanufacturing sector comprises 88% of the economy, and it follows
that most of the nation’s jobs are in services ranging from construction
to finance to pet care. While the worst of layoffs appear to be over, the
services report is likely to show that hiring remains elusive.
(Customs) Container traffic moving through West Coast ports increased 3 percent
in November compared to November 2008, marking the first monthly year-over-year
increase in 2009. Total imports and exports in November were also up 1 percent
over October traffic, although the volume was down 1 percent from the peak
month in August, according to statistics published by the Pacific Maritime
Association.
(MW) Private-sector firms in the U.S. eliminated 84,000 jobs in December,
according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.
(MW) The service sectors of the U.S. economy rebounded in December, according
to a survey of companies released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply
Management. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 50.1% from 48.7% in November.
Fed’s Hoenig Warns on Too-Big-to-Fail, Backs Glass-Steagall -
more
Americans Grow Less and Less Satisfied at Work -
more
Strip Mall Vacancy Rate Hits 10.6%, Highest on Record -
more
Looking for Stability, Not Increases, in House Prices -
more
Hundreds of Millions May Face Starvation in the Next 5-10 Years -
more
CES 2010 PCWorld's News, reviews and video live from the floor of the consumer
electronics show. -
more
(opens tomorrow)
World steel output
expected to hit record in 2010 - The outlook for the global steel industry
in 2010 is now looking very positive, global steel consultancy MEPS said
on Wednesday. -
more
Stainless steel
ind to take on China - Faced with stiff competition from China, stainless
steel manufacturers in India have come on a common platform to chalkout fresh
strategies and to press the government to dole out incentives to compete
in a world market. -
more
'In terms of the
steel outlook; demand scenario is firm and the price is stable' - In an interview
with ET Now, Koushik Chatterjee, Group CFO, Tata Steel discusses the domestic
demand for steel and the outlook for FY11. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:250 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.17/lb
higher, with all base
metals trading solidly in the green this morning, on strong investor sentiment.
The US Dollar is trading slightly higher against the Euro this morning.
NYMEX crude futures are down 1/3 of 1% and at $81.50/barrel. Gold is up 2/3
of 1% while silver is higher by 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended
higher, with China falling 2/3 of 1%. European markets are lower this morning,
as UK consumer confidence fell sharply in December. US futures show Wall
Street may open in a sour mood. Nickel inventories slipped slightly overnight,
while the BDI #'s have yet to be published.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices started the first
week of the New Year on a very steady note, as a weaker dollar and continued
investor infatuation with commodities continue to bolster the complex. ...
Another factor strengthening metals is the struggling dollar, which has lost
ground of late, slipping to one month-lows against the yen yesterday. It
is holding its own against the Euro right now, and trading at 1.4350 as of
this writing. Part of the recent sloppiness we are seeing in the greenback
is attributable to the fact that investors seem to want to bid up the dollar
on improving US macro data, but are being held back by both an accommodative
Fed and by occasionally weak macro numbers that are offsetting the more robust
data typically coming our way. Yesterday's data illustrated the point, where
better than expected factory orders, (coupled with strong ISM numbers out
the day before), were offset by unexpectedly weak pending home sales data.
.... Nickel is at $19,025, up $315, and has yet to break out in the
strong fashion that some of the other metals have. However, we do see from
our charts that prices have staged a breakout from the downchannel, and could
now make a move to next resistance at $21,500." (read Ed Meir's
complete morning base metals report
here)
(SO) According to the customs statistics, China's CR coil export volume in
November reached 139,600 mt, down 10,400 mt or 6.94 percent year on year,
totaling $124 million in value, down $39 million or 24.2 percent compared
with the same month last year.
Global stainless steel output fell 15% to 17.92 million metric tons in the
first nine months of last year, the International Stainless Steel Forum said
in a report.
(MBiz) S.Korea stainless steel distributors intend to advance prices. Recently
the nickel price increased and inventory was short, so they plan to adjust
up price. Traders want to boost 304 HRC to 3.2mln-3.25mln Won and lift 304
CRC to 3.4mln-3.45mln Won.
(MB) NSSC mulls cut in stainless list prices
(ATA) The American Trucking Associations (ATA) advance seasonally adjusted
(SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7% in November 2009, following
a 0.2% contraction in October.
(Xinhua) China is now drafting new regulations for tax adjustments in the
steel logistics industry, said He Liming, vice chairman of the China Federation
of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP).
Optimist? Or pessimist? Test your 2010 strategy! -
more
A regular commentary on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -
more
Drop in Stainless
Production Tempered by Third Quarter Recovery - Preliminary figures released
today by the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) show that world stainless
steel production decreased by 15% in the first nine months of 2009 when compared
to the same period of 2008. However, production figures for the third quarter
show an increase of 12.5% when compared to the same quarter in 2008. -
more
Kagara nickel
JV produces first ore - The first ore has been mined from Kagara Ltd's Lounge
Lizard nickel sulphide joint venture project with Western Areas NL. -
more
Global nickel demand
all set to recover in 2010 - Most of the base metal prices will be depended
on Chinese demand in 2010 and Nickel is no exception. If indications from
global markets are any hint, global primary nickel usage may recover around
1.35 million tonne. -
more
Cuba 09 unrefined
nickel output at 70,100 tonnes - Cuba's unrefined nickel plus cobalt production
weighed in at 70,100 tonnes last year, down slightly from the 70,400 tonnes
reported in 2008, state-run media said on Tuesday. -
more
Composition On Supply
/ Demand Of Ferro-Alloys In Japan For Jul. - Sep. 2009 Quarter =Reflecting
Decreased Imports, Some Of Ferro-Alloys Arose With Tightened Supplies - When
the composition on supply and demand of ferro-alloys in Japan for July -
September quarter of 2009 is reviewed, it is known that the realities of
this composition had continued with a severity, following the same case for
the preceding quarter of April - June. -
more
Glencore May
Expand to Rival BHP, Rio, Investor Rothschild Says - Glencore International
AG, the commodity trader that’s considering an initial public offering,
may grow to rival the world’s largest mining companies, according to
investor Nathaniel Rothschild. -
more
U.S. slaps more duties
on steel product from China - The United States on Tuesday slapped additional
duties of 43 to 289 percent on imports of more than $300 million worth of
a steel product from China, the U.S. Commerce Department said. -
more
Mexico slaps import
fees on steel from UK, China - Mexico slapped import tariffs on some steel
products from China and the United Kingdom on Tuesday to protect local
production, according to new rules published in the official gazette. -
more
2010 steel demand
seen rising over 9% - Steel demand in India is expected to increase more
than 9% in 2010, and prices are expected to rise between January and May
due to higher raw material prices. -
more
Venezuela may
shut steel, aluminum plants amid power shortage - The Venezuelan government
cannot rule out suspending operations at state-owned steel mills and aluminum
plants as part of official measures for energy conservation, the electricity
minister said. -
more
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Vale Says It Isn’t Ruling Out Voisey’s Bay Restart - Vale
SA, the world’s second-biggest nickel producer, said it isn’t ruling
out a restart of its Voisey’s Bay nickel mine in Canada or a complete
shutdown of the plant after labor talks to end a five-month strike failed.
-
more
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Emerging Markets May Lose 20% as Mobius
Sees Record IPOs Swamping Appetite // Fujii's Health Remarks Fuel Concern
He May Resign as Japan's Finance Chief // Korea Beats Brazil With Won Proving
Favorite Among Most-Accurate Analysts // Japan Airlines Rises After Workers
Agree to Cuts in Future Pension Payment // Sumitomo Mitsui Said to Plan $8.7
Billion Share Sale to Replenish Capital // Stocks, Oil Climb as Economic
Growth Accelerates; Asian Bond Risk Decline // Kraft Boosts Cadbury Pursuit
With More Cash as Nestle Drops Out of Bidding // Greece May Borrow Through
Banks for Second Month After Ratings Downgrades // Iceland to Hold Referendum
on Icesave Bill After Grimsson Vetos Agreement // Inflation in Europe Accelerates
to Fastest in 10 Months on Energy Costs // Germany's Unemployment Falls for
Sixth Month as Export Outlook Brightens // Spanish Unemployment Rises to
Highest Level in a Decade as Slump Continues // Romanian National Bank
Unexpectedly Reduces Base Interest Rate to 7.50% // Retail Sales in U.S.
Rise Through Holiday Gift-Card Use, Trade Group Says // Ford, Nissan U.S.
Sales Climb in Sign of Industry Recovery; Chrysler Falls // U.S. Budget Deficit
May Exceed $1 Trillion for Years, Portales's Kos Says // Pending Sales
of Existing U.S. Homes Fall; Factory Orders Exceed Forecasts
The US Dollar is now trading higher against the Euro, up nearly 2/10 of 1%.
NYMEX crude is up slightly more than 2/10 of 1%, and little changed from
this morning. Gold is now down over 1/10 of 1% while silver is up 1.2% but
slipping. Base metals ended the session quietly, with very little change.
There was one loser though and that was nickel. Indicator charts show nickel
fell early before making a failed comeback late in the session. Dow Jones
reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.49/lb. LME approved warehouse
stores of nickel were flat overnight, with a single inbound and outbound
shipment counter balancing one another. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel
trading thru yesterday
(chart here). The Baltic Dry Index rose for a second day,
up 130 points, with all three sub-indexes showing positive readings. Factory
orders rose in November, while pending home sales fell. Unemployment fell
in Germany, and rose in Spain. Global warming was back in the news today...
or at least many in the Northern Hemisphere were wishing it was. Record cold
is being felt from China, across parts of Europe and North America. Here
in the States we are being told our friends to the north have even colder
temperatures to send us later this week, while parts of China are bracing
for much of the same.
(SC) Tangshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., a listed arm of the newly-formed
Chinese iron and steel conglomerate Hebei Iron and Steel Group, just gained
the approval from the board meeting for its new name. It will be renamed
Hebei Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. after the share swaps with its siblings,
Handan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd and Chengde Xinxin Vanadium & Titanium
Co., Ltd., are completed.
(JOC) The Cass shipments index ended 2009 slipping 3 percent in December
from November, a contrast with broader economic measures showing that factories
in the United States as well as Asia and Europe increased their output in
December.
Have Metals the mettle to rally on? Is the price expected to rise in 2010
? -
more
Use of potentially harmful chemicals kept secret under law -
more
Global purchasing
fall off forces production cutbacks - Production workers at the Paul Mueller
Co. in Springfield, Mo., a stainless steel products manufacturer, were laid
off and the plant was shuttered just before Christmas, an indication that
the stainless and specialty steel market remains in tough shape. -
more
Vale Inco considering
options for Voisey's Bay - Mediated talks between Brazilian miner Vale Inco
and union leaders on Monday over a five-month strike at its Voisey's Bay
nickel mine have failed to bring the two sides back to the bargaining table,
meaning no end to the strike is in sight. -
more
China plans to boost
steel output by almost 9% - China is expected to increase steel supply by
8.6% in 2010 to 621.5 million metric tons, according to a report from the
Mysteel consultancy in Shanghai. -
more
Secondary steel
makers raise prices - Secondary steel makers Uttam Galva Steels Ltd and Bhushan
Steel raised prices of their products in view of firm global markets, top
company officials told Reuters on Tuesday. -
more
Burj Khalifa Official
Opening Fireworks -
video
here // On the top of Burj Khalifa's spire -
video here
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:25 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.12/lb
lower, with other
base metals mixed and listless. The US Dollar is trading over 1/10 of 1%
lower against the Euro so far this morning. NYMEX crude futures are up 1/4
of 1% and at $81.72/barrel. Gold is up 1/3 of 1% while silver is higher by
the same margin. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended higher with China
up 8/10 of 1%. European markets are trading higher and US futures imply a
slightly higher opening on Wall Street. Nickel inventories were flat overnight,
while the BDI rose 130 points.
Allegheny Ludlum Feb 2010 stainless surcharge schedule -
here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - first report for 2010
will be posted on Wednesday
(Yieh) According to market analysts, stainless steel market in 2010 is predicted
to flourish not only because of strong raw material prices but also because
of steady recovery in the US and European market. The nickel price is forecasted
to stay at US$18,000~22,000/ton in 2010. Accordingly, stainless steel market
this year shall be better than last year.
(Dow Jones) The annual rebalancing of commodity indexes that begin
at the end of this week and continue thru next week. The weight of the indexes'
best performers in 2009 will be reduced, while the worst performers will
see their weight increased.
(Yieh) With the continuously increasing demand from auto, construction and
other industries, all Japanese stainless steel mills' capacity for the first
quarter of 2010 has been over-booked. According to the relevant officials,
the stainless steel orders from Japan's Nippon Steel, JFE and other steelmakers
are completed very well while the global economy is getting out of the financial
crisis.
(Bloomberg) ArcelorMittal has ended partial lay- offs at its Florange plant
in northeastern France after a rebound in the demand for steel, particularly
from carmakers, French daily Le Figaro reported, citing the CGT union.
(CM) According to Mr Tan Naifeng deputy director of the information branch
of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, steel demand
from China's shipbuilding industry is expected to increase to 17 million
tonne to 18 million tonne per year by 2011, a rise of more than 20 % compared
with the estimated consumption for this year
(MBiz) India's stainless steel enterprise, Jindal, on December 30, stated
that it is expected that its 1.6mln-ton stainless steel producing center
in Orissa will be completed in March 2014, at that time, Jindal Stainless
Steel's annual production probably exceeds 2.5mln tons, and its status as
India's largest stainless steel enterprise will be further consolidated.
(CM) Statistics show that in the first 10 months of 2009, Japan's nickel
production fell 18% to 23,953 tons, output is 29,378 tons a year earlier.
Nickel-iron production in the country over the same period, fell 9% to 233.98
thousand tons, with output at 255,343 tons a year earlier.
German firm to build
$300M pipe plant in NW Miss. - A German company will build a $300 million
plant in northwestern Mississippi to manufacture stainless steel pipes for
the oil and gas industry, Gov. Haley Barbour and a company executive announced
Monday. -
more
JSW Steel production
rises 88% in Q3 - JSW Steel, the country’s largest private sector steel
maker by domestic capacity, on Tuesday said its production rose 88% to 14.69
lakh tonnes in the third quarter of the current fiscal. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In
the week ending January 2, 2010, domestic raw steel production was 1,468,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 61.5 percent. Production
was 987,000 tons in the week ending January 2, 2010, while the capability
utilization then was 41.4 percent. The current week production represents
a 48.7 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending January 2, 2010 is up 1.6 percent from the previous week
ending December 26, 2009 when production was 1,445,000 tons and the rate
of capability utilization was 60.6 percent.
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Vale, union say won't restart Voisey's Bay talks - Mediated talks between
Brazilian miner Vale (VALE5.SA) and union leaders on Monday over a five-month
strike at its Voisey's Bay nickel mine in Eastern Canada have failed to bring
the two sides back to the bargaining table, meaning no end to the strike
is in sight. -
more
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us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Manufacturing Output Expands
at Fastest Pace in More Than Five Years // Singapore's GDP Shrinks for First
Time in Three Quarters on Manufacturing // Japan Air Jumps by Record as Credit
Line Doubles, Reducing Bankruptcy Risk // Yudhoyono Sees Indonesia Growth
Quickening to 6.6% Pace in Next Five Years // Stocks Rally Worldwide on China's
Economy as Cold Snap Sends Oil Above $80 // Commodities Back to Economic
Euphoria as Top Gurus Eschew Financial Assets // European Shares Climb to
15-Month High on Economy; BHP, Nestle Shares Gain // Bernanke Says Low Rates
Didn't Cause House Bubble, Regulation Best Answer // Warren Buffett Delivers
Worst Stock Performance Against S&P 500 in Decade // Fed's Tools for
Reducing Record Stimulus Include Sale of Assets, Kohn Says // Feldstein Sees
`Serious Cloud' Over Growth as Stiglitz Warns on Recovery // BofA's Moynihan
Says Worst of Recession Over, Bank Industry Learned Lesson // U.S. Manufacturing
Grows Most Since 2006 as Factories Lead Global Recovery
The US Dollar continues to trade lower against the Euro, down nearly 2/3
of 1%. NYMEX crude is up nearly 2-1/2% and over $81/barrel. Gold is higher
by nearly 1.9%, while silver is up by over 3.2%. Base metals started the
New Year all solidly trading in the green. Indicator charts show nickel started
off strong in the morning, slumped, rose again, then slumped later in the
trading day. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.62/lb, higher than Thursday, but not
quite as high as it closed early last week. Stores of nickel in LME approved
warehouses rose by over 400 tonnes over the weekend and now sit just shy
of 158,500 tonnes. Sucden finally updated their day old nickel chart, reflecting
the bull run nickel is on
(chart here). Nickel got a double boost early on this
morning, with a falling Dollar, and a higher Chinese purchasing manufacturing
index. We track four of the world' major PMI's
here, and all reported positive economic news this month.
The Baltic Dry Index rose 135 points, after a week long break. A new day,
a new work week, a new business year, and a new economic decade begins today.
If we were asked, and we weren't, it would be our opinion that the story
of 2009 that meant the most to nickel and the metals industry, was the massive
move in China to increase domestic consumption. What will be the story for
2010? Economic recovery? Double dip recession? Stainless steel consumption
to resume growth? Inventories of nickel to fall? Nobody knows but stick with
us and we will find out together. Happy New Year!!
Crude steel production
increases 12.1 pct in first 11 months of 2009, YoY - China’s crude steel
production grew by 37.4 percent last November, according to a Dec. 29 report
by China’s National Development and Reform Commission. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.24/lb
higher, with all base
metals solidly higher this morning. The Euro is trading nearly 1/2 of 1%
higher against the US Dollar, giving an additional boost to commodity trading.
NYMEX crude is up nearly 1.9% and nearing $81/barrel. Gold is up 1.8% while
silver is higher by the same. In overnight trading, Asian markets began the
new year higher, while China ended lower. European markets are trading higher
this morning, and US futures imply a solidly higher opening for Wall Street.
Everything appears to be up this morning, including LME nickel inventory
numbers and even the BDI starts out 2010 with a 135 point increase.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - (next report Wednesday)
(Yieh) Ferro-molybdenum price in Europe kept rising as demand is recovering
steadily. Accordingly, ferromolybdenum price has rebound to US$29.5/kg, and
predicted to go up to more than US$30/kg soon.
(Bloomberg) India’s steel demand is expected to increase more than 9
percent this year, JSW Steel Ltd.’s sales and marketing director Jayant
Acharya said at a media briefing today in Mumbai. Prices are expected to
rise in the January to May period because of higher costs and demand from
the automobile and construction sectors, he said.
(SG) It is reported that Jiangsu based Chinese special steel producer Jinsong
Special Steel Co Limited has successfully acquired the assets of the old
plant of Jiangsu Tieben Iron and Steel Co Limited at a total reserve price
of CNY 710.8 million on December 29th 2009.
(SG) The Ukrainian cabinet of ministers has determined the list of goods,
including alloyed ferrous metals, nonferrous metals and their alloys, the
exports of which will be subject to licensing in 2010. According to government
Decree No 1406 dated December 23rd 2009 the goods subjected to licensing
are ferronickel, ferrotitanium, ferroalloys, stainless steel in ingots or
in other primary forms, as well as other nonferrous metals and their alloys.
All these products were also subject to licensing in 2009.
(SBB) Chinese stainless prices surge on nickel's strength
EU average stainless
steel prices - MEPS forecasts are little changed from November. Austenitic
selling figures are expected to fall in the New Year due to a reduction in
the alloy surcharges. -
more
Nickel miner
allowed to start operations on Dinagat Island - The Environment
department’s Mines bureau has approved the mining plan of listed Century
Peak Metals Holdings Corp., allowing the miner to start putting up a nickel
mine in northeastern Mindanao. -
more
Metals prices tipped
to come back to field in subdued 2010 - In 2009, China raised the notion
that paper money was out and hard commodities were a better store of wealth.
-
more
Outokumpu's Pekka
Erkkilä to join Outotec - The Executive Vice President - General Stainless
and a member of Outokumpu Group?s Executive Committee, Pekka Erkkilä,
will join the Executive Committee of Outotec, the Finnish based company
specialized in mining and metallurgical technology. -
more
Chichester Fund
Favors Platinum, Iron Ore; Avoids Nickel, Gas - Platinum, iron ore and coal
will probably extend gains this year on strengthening demand, according to
commodities hedge-fund firm Chichester Capital Management LP. -
more
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
About 3,050 hourly rated production and maintenance workers, members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500, have been on strike since July 13. Another 130 USW
Local 6200 members in Port Colborne are also on strike. About 450 members
of USW Local 9508 in Voisey's Bay have been on strike since Aug. 1.
Vale Inco filed suit against union, workers during a busy month in the courts
- November, one of the warmest on record, was one of the year's hottest news
months, with the H1N1 pandemic peaking, key strike developments, stabbings
and even movie making. -
more
Xstrata, Mine Mill talks 'proceeding well' - CAW has called a meeting of
its members for a strike mandate on Jan. 13 should the union and company
be unable to reach a "fair and just" collective agreement before the contract
deadline. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
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info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
All prices shown on this page are indications only. "A Guide To
LME
Trading"...pdf here "The ABCs of a Metals Exchange"
...pdf here(Molybdenum
prices are for molybdenum oxide, an ingredient and major price factor in
316 stainless) (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated
daily before 8 am CST and before 1 pm CST weekdays -
DisclaimerCandlestick Pattern Dictionary
here / Intro to Candlesticks
here Original content and opinions copyright
www.estainlesssteel.com. Note - For real time and official
LME prices, LME requires a user subscribe to be an authorized LME vendor.
Sudbury Xstrata / First Nickel Negotiations
Clive Palmer
refines fortunes at Yabulu Nickel refinery - Queens'and's richest man Clive
Palmer has been credited with a phenomenal multimillion-dollar turnaround
at Townsville's near-mothballed Yabulu Nickel refinery. -
Year End
2009 China Import Statistics (Top 10 exporting countries to China)
Soaring Base
Metals Stockpiles - Ever since its secular bull kicked off in 2003, the
once-boring base-metals sector took on an aura of excitement. -
Norilsk Eyes $2
Billion 2009 Profit After Loss: Reports - Russia's metals giant Norilsk Nickel
expects to book a $2 billion net profit for last year after it ended 2008
with a loss of $449 million, Russian media reported on Saturday. -
Daily
Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up
(
. December ended at
$8.41/lb so for the ending days we did not see much overall gain. But by
our unofficial figures, the average price of cash nickel increased from $7.72/lb
in Dec 2009 to around $8.36/lb this month, a substantial increase. Working
nickel miners can thank the Sudbury strike for much of this, and the threat
of another potential strike in the same town. Inventories of nickel stored
in LME approved warehouses rose substantially overnight, to another all time
record high, and now sit shy of the 165,000 tonne level. Sucden's day old
chart shows traders resistance to follow the overall base metals downward
trend
(
Reports
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
Norilsk raises
2010 nickel output forecast - Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest nickel
and palladium producer, said on Friday it had raised its nickel output forecast
for this year to 299,000-309,000 tonnes from a previous outlook of 300,000
tonnes. -
"The pricing on
the nickel market is irrational" - January 2010 nickel is in the futures
markets since December of last year, has become dearer by up to 125 percent.
A ton of the industrial metal cost at the London Metals Exchange on Wednesday,
slightly more than $ 19,000. -
Alliance has
advantages for both Anglo and African Nickel - The nickel alliance agreement
between min- ing junior African Nickel and one of the world’s largest
diversified miners, Anglo American, is proving to be mutually beneficial
to both companies, reports African Nickel. -
Wanted: Owner of 2.5
tons of steel - Immigration officials are looking for the owner of 2.5 tons
of stainless steel that was seized in Cincinnati because it was being shipped
to Iran without U.S. government approval. -
Sudbury/Voisey's Bay Nickel Strike Coverage
Iron Ore News // Talks / Spy Scandal
Coverage
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
POSCO raises
stainless steel prices from Feb - South Korea's POSCO, the world's No.4
steelmaker, said on Thursday it would raise prices of its stainless steel
products by up to 3.3 percent due to rising raw material prices. -
ZIMASCO to double
ferro-chrome output - Midlands-based ferro-chrome producer, Zimasco plans
to upgrade and refurbish key plant in order to ramp-up production and take
advantage of firming prices in the global stainless steel market.
-
China's Jinchuan
takes piece of Tanzania project - Tanzanian Royalty Exploration , a
Toronto-listed metals explorer, said on Wednesday that China's Jinchuan Mining
has agreed to become a partner in the junior's Kabanga nickel properties
in northwestern Tanzania. -
Apex court to hear
Tangarpada mines case on Monday - The Supreme Court will on Monday decide
whether the Orissa government’s decision to develop Tangarpada chromite
mines on its own and cancellation of allotment of a tender to three
bidders–Tata Steel, Jindal Stainless Ltd and Visa Steel––are
in the best interests of the state. -
Vale and it’s
CEO are taking the offensive! - Vale Sa, the largest iron- ore miner in the
world, is poised to take back some market share from its primary rivals Rio
Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. At this time it has the ability to boost
exports faster as steel making picks up and causing an increased demand for
raw material such as iron. -
Cooled Fever In
China Causes To Fall Ratios Of FeNi Exports From Japan= Fallen By 73% From
That At Peak, Exports At Present Fell By 40% - The quantity of nickel in
ferro-nickel exported from Japan to China in the first half of 2009 had a
considerable increase but, reflecting a feeling of the oversupply in China,
the exports of ferro-nickel from Japan to China in the second half were in
the direction to decrease in both quarters of July - September and October
- December. -
MBMI Recommences
Nickel Material Shipments From Alpha Project - MBMI Resources Inc is
pleased to announce that its Philippine operations are preparing to recommence
nickel material shipping activities. Several sales agreements have been executed
with Asian industrial consumers for the delivery of nickel bearing material
having grades of approximately 1.4% nickel. -
Press release -
ETI KROM declares Force Majeure due to landsliding damage to railway - The
main railway line connecting ETI KROM's FeCr plant and chrome ore mines in
Elazig to its loading ports of Iskenderun and Mersin is totally destroyed
and closed due to heavy landsliding on Saturday, January 23rd 2010, at Malatya
(the next city to Elazig). 'ETI KROM delivers 80% of its chrome ore and 100%
of its ferrochrome transportation from Elazig to loadports by railways.
Unfortunately, this unexpected situation is called as a 'Force Majeure' case
by ETI KROM and will heavily influence all our shipments during the weeks
ahead'', says the company official, Yasar OZDIREK. ''According to the State
Railway Department, the repairing of the damaged railway will take around
90 days. Unfortunately, due to the winter period, heavy snow and lack of
enough road truck, ETI KROM will suffer to fulfill its delivery deadline
obligations to its all customers under current contracts '', he continued.
The company is currently studying the alternative solutions and informs that
all its existing obligations from now on might be delayed around 90 days.
Until the force majeure case is cleared, ETI KROM will hold all its new sales
of HC FeCr and chrome ore. As it is known that ETI KROM was contracted 140,000
tons of chrome ore and 10,000 mt of HC FeCr until March 2010 and logistically
was fully booked.
Indonesian nickel
firm INCO's CEO to retire in March - The president director of Indonesian
nickel firm PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbk said on Tuesday he will
tender his resignation in March. -
America's Great
Depression by Murray N. Rothbard - free and online
Northern European
steel prices show modest upward trend - The Flat Products market got off
to a slow start to 2010 in Northern Europe. Some suppliers report increasing
numbers of enquiries and even sales, although this activity is perceived
to be due to restocking rather than growing real demand. -
Areva’s Sale
of Eramet, STMicro Stakes Not Urgent, Echos Says - Areva SA’s plan to
sell its stakes in nickel producer Eramet SA and chipmaker STMicroelectronics
NV isn’t urgent because the nuclear-plant maker needs cash only from
2011, Les Echos reported, citing people it didn’t identify. -
Industrial Metals
Prices to Climb 15 Percent, South Korea Says - South Korea, Asia’s
third-biggest buyer of base metals, forecast that average prices may gain
by more than 15 percent in 2010 as the global economy recovers, and said
it plans a further boost to the nation’s reserves. -
Landowners Shut
Dow PNG Nickel Mine - The Kurumbukari landowners of the Ramu nickel and cobalt
mine in Madang province have stopped all operations at the mine. -
Thainox says
main shareholder in talks with POSCO - Thainox Stainless Pcl , Southeast
Asia's largest stainless steel producer, said on Monday its main shareholder
was discussing the sale of a stake to South Korea's POSCO but made no comment
on the price. -
Few more for the
weekend
, right where it ended
yesterday. Inventories of nickel store in LME approved warehouses rose by
a huge number overnight, and now sit over the 161,500 tonne level, a new
record high. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel reversal yesterday
(
Tati nickel mine
poised for longer life - Tati Nickel Mine, which recovers copper, nickel
and cobalt, is located a few kilometers west of Francistown in the northern
part of Botswana whose operations date back to 1999 in the country. -
If you don't appreciate
crude humor, skip this one, but it was just too funny to let go. While we
are true believers in stainless steel as the answer to many difficulties
engineers and architects may confront, it is not the answer to all of life's
little problems. You have heard us refer to "nickel being in a pickle" before
but never have we had a story about a "pickle in nickel" The story headline
says it all "Man gets genitals stuck in pipe" -
Areva deal
may affect New Caledonia’s SLN - The French state-controlled nuclear
engineering group Areva is about to shed its 26 percent stake in the nickel
mining company Eramet which is a key stakeholder in New Caledonia’s
SLN. -
Drop in Stainless
Production Tempered by Third Quarter Recovery - Preliminary figures released
today by the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) show that world stainless
steel production decreased by 15% in the first nine months of 2009 when compared
to the same period of 2008. However, production figures for the third quarter
show an increase of 12.5% when compared to the same quarter in 2008. -
Cuba 09 unrefined
nickel output at 70,100 tonnes - Cuba's unrefined nickel plus cobalt production
weighed in at 70,100 tonnes last year, down slightly from the 70,400 tonnes
reported in 2008, state-run media said on Tuesday. -
Glencore May
Expand to Rival BHP, Rio, Investor Rothschild Says - Glencore International
AG, the commodity trader that’s considering an initial public offering,
may grow to rival the world’s largest mining companies, according to
investor Nathaniel Rothschild. -
Mexico slaps import
fees on steel from UK, China - Mexico slapped import tariffs on some steel
products from China and the United Kingdom on Tuesday to protect local
production, according to new rules published in the official gazette. -
Venezuela may
shut steel, aluminum plants amid power shortage - The Venezuelan government
cannot rule out suspending operations at state-owned steel mills and aluminum
plants as part of official measures for energy conservation, the electricity
minister said. -
Outokumpu's Pekka
Erkkilä to join Outotec - The Executive Vice President - General Stainless
and a member of Outokumpu Group?s Executive Committee, Pekka Erkkilä,
will join the Executive Committee of Outotec, the Finnish based company
specialized in mining and metallurgical technology. -
