Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China's Steelmakers Say Iron-Ore Producers
Stoking Speculation, Seek Curbs // China Lodges First WTO Complaint Against
EU About Tariffs on Screws, Bolts // Asian Stocks Rise on Profit Reports;
MSCI Index Set for Fifth Monthly Gain // European Prices Fall 0.6%, Most
in 13 Years; Jobless Rate at Decade High // Ackermann Says Rising Delinquencies
Represent `Next Wave' of Bank Crisis // Stocks in Europe Decline; Air France,
Eni Drop as Earnings Trail Estimates // Treasuries Set for Longest Decline
Since 1996 on View Recession Is Easing // `Clunkers' Incentives Program May
Boost July U.S. Auto Sales to 2009 High // Economy Contracts at 1% Rate;
Consumer Spending Falls More Than Estimated // First Year of U.S. Recession
Worse Than Initial Estimates, Revisions Show // UBS Tax-Evasion Agreement
Is Worked Out by U.S., Switzerland, Lawyer Says // Stocks in U.S. Gain After
GDP Report Is Better Than Forecast; GE Advances
The US Dollar continues to fall against the Euro, now down over 1-1/4%. NYMEX
crude is up over 1-1/2% and over $68/barrel. Gold is nearly 2% higher, while
silver is up by 3-1/3%. Base metals had another positive ending day, with
nickel getting the spotlight. Traders had $8/lb in their sites and were
determined to hit it. Indicator charts show nickel shot up early to over
$8/lb, retreated after US GDP second quarter figures were released, but after
about an hour and a half of heading down, kicked it back into gear and rose
sharply. For the day, week, and month, three month nickel closed at
$8.14/lb
, it's first time
over $8 since September of last year. LME inventories of nickel slumped again
overnight, and now rest under 106,000 tonnes. The Baltic Dry Index took another
hit, down 95 points to 3,350. And thus we bid farewell to July 2009. Nickel
closed last month at $6.96/lb and spent all but 4 days of July closing above
$7.00/lb. LME stored inventories started the month over 109,000 tonnes, and
ended the month under 106. Most analysts began the month fairly convinced
we would see a major correction in nickel pricing during the month, but the
bull refused to bow. A major strike began in Sudbury, Canada, with a second
starting this weekend at Voisey's Bay. BHP has reportedly put Ravensthorpe
on the market, the start-up of Goro was delayed temporarily ... again, the
construction of Ramu suffered delays... again, Ambatovy is caught up in political
upheaval .... again, and Santa Rita is scheduled to begin producing later
this year ... after it raises some money. The iron ore negotiations turned
from nasty to down right mean with Chinese officials arresting the Rio Tinto
team on espionage allegations. Xstrata wants to marry Anglo American, but
Anglo says no. Overall economic news either got better during the month,
or remained "less bad". Today, the Chicago purchasing managers index rose
to 43.4% in July. It was a month of renewed optimism coming from many corners
of the globe. Let's hope it continues.
Nickel prices
push up as premiums rangebound on uncertain demand - As nickel futures prices
relentlessly continue to defy gravity, making a determined effort to follow
the rest of the base metals complex on the London Metal Exchange on their
march to higher numbers, traders and producers in Europe paint a mixed picture
regarding physical demand for the metal, according to sources contacted by
Platts this week. -
more
Vale Voisey’s
Bay Nickel Workers Say They’ll Strike at Midnight - Vale SA’s Canadian
nickel workers at the Voisey’s Bay mine say they will begin a strike
at midnight after failing to clinch a labor agreement. -
more
Rusina Mining
says heap leach trial complete at Acoje nickel project, Philippines - Rusina
Mining NL said the heap leach trial (HLT) at the Acoje nickel project in
the Philippines is now mechanically complete, and 3,000 tonnes of laterite
ore is in the process of being crushed for the pad. -
more
Analysis-Will China
metal stocks "time bomb" detonate on credit? - Traders fearing that China's
record copper, aluminium and nickel imports might suddenly reverse course
should probably be watching data on the domestic supply of money, not metal.
- more
ENRC says to
withdraw from China Gateway project - Kazakh miner Eurasian Natural Resources
Corporation Plc is to withdraw from the 'China Gateway Project', a concession
to build a rail link between China and Kazakhstan. -
more
China steel body
threatens to enforce single price - China's steel industry body threatened
new rules to enforce a single price for iron ore, as it struggles to regain
control of marathon contract price talks with global miners in which it vowed
to achieve a "reasonable result". -
more
Iron ore spot price shipped to China rose 21.5% in July - The price of imported
iron ore sold spot into China, rose 21.5% in July. Platts IODEX 62% Fe content
price assessment for the steel making raw material increased by $17 in total
to close the month at $96/dry mt CFR North China. -
more
Hannans in a
deal to buy land from Kagara, St Barbara - Junior minerals explorer Hannans
Reward Ltd has done a deal with Kagara Ltd and St Barbara Ltd to buy unexplored
ground considered prospective for nickel and gold in Western Australia. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.25/lb
higher, and trading
just off its 2009 high. The rest of the base metals are also higher. The
US Dollar is trading lower against the Euro, assisting commodities, and down
by 4/10 of 1%. NYMEX crude is quiet after a two volatile days, a hair over
$69/barrel. Gold is also quiet, while silver is higher by 1/2 of 1%. In overnight
trading, Asian markets rebounded, following the US lead from yesterday. European
markets are quiet and slightly higher this morning, while US futures show
a positive opening for Wall Street is possible. US GDP numbers for the second
quarter of 2009 were just released and came in much better than expected,
slipping 1%. This could give all active markets an additional boost. In nickel
news, a strike will begin at the Voisey's Bay nickel mine tomorrow night.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - on vacation next report August
3rd (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Yieh) China’s Taiyuan Iron & Steel Co. (TISCO) has increased its
stainless steel price by RMB1,000/ton (US$147/ton) for domestic market this
week. European stainless steel mills also raised their stainless steel price.
Their nickel base stainless steel price has reached US$3,030 – US$3,100/ton
(Yieh) Korean Hyundai Steel has announced to raise its CR stainless steel
price in line with increase of Posco’s HR stainless steel price recently.
Accordingly, the company’s CR 304 price will increase from 3.194 million
won/ton to 3.404 million won/ton effective from August 1st.
(Asia Pulse) A South Korean company plans to invest US$2 billion in nickel
mining in Southeast Sulawesi province, an official said. The unnamed South
Korean company would exploit nickel and build a stainless steel plant in
the province, Southeast Sulawesi Governor Nur Alam said here on Thursday.
(Religare) It is expected that nickel market may show a surplus of 91,000
tonnes in 2009, which could largely be worked off by the end of 2010. But
with plenty of spare idled capacity available, the price will be as much
a hostage to supplier responses as to the size and rapidity of the global
economic recovery.
(JMB) Japanese raw steel output will increase by 20.8% to 23.073 million
tonnes in July-September from April-June while the output is 24.2% lower
than same period of 2008, announced by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
on Thursday.
AAR - The Association of American Railroads today reported that rail carloadings
for the week ended July 25, 2009 continue to show slight improvement, but
rail traffic remains down compared with the same period last year. U.S railroads
reported originating 273,943 cars, down 17.4 percent compared with the same
week in 2008. Regionally, carloadings were down 15.6 percent in the West
and 20 percent in the East.
Four Bad Bear Markets update (courtesy dshort.com) -
graph here and inflation
adjusted version -
here
Commodities soar as investors' risk appetite grows -
more
Recovery In Stainless
Steel Production But No Bonanza In Sight - A recovery in the stainless steel
sector is underway. World steel production in the second half of this year
will be significantly higher than in the first six months. -
more
Optimism Cautiously
Returns To Stainless - Stability in raw material prices and depleted inventories
give stainless producers and distributors hope that the worst of the specialty
market’s doldrums are in the past. -
more
Sumitomo Metal Widens
Loss Forecast on Seamless Pipes - Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd.,
Japan’s third-biggest steelmaker, more than doubled its forecast for
a loss this fiscal year because of a delayed recovery in export markets for
pipes used in oil and gas production. -
more
Carpenter Technology
sales down; auto takes biggest hit - Carpenter Technology Corp. today reported
that sales of its specialty stainless steel and other metals were down 54
percent in the fourth quarter. -
more
New Caledonia
Nickel Plant to Cut 500 Jobs – The French Eramet company says its
nickel-producing SLN subsidiary in New Caledonia should ideally shed 500
jobs by 2012. -
more
Dig it: Climax Mine
plans still on hold - Mine restart depends on worldwide demand and price
of molybdenum -
more
China Steel Demand
to Gain in Second Half, Group Says - Steel demand in China, the world’s
largest consumer of the metal, will improve in the second half from the first
six months as economic growth accelerates, the China Iron & Steel Association
said. -
more
US Employment
- certain sectors since Jan 1999 thru June 2009 - not seasonally adjusted
(source - BLS)
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale Trade - Industrial Supplies
Wholesale Trade - Hardware
Manufacturing - Bolts, Nuts, Screws, Rivets and Washers
Manufacturing - Corrugated and Solid Fiber Boxes
China launches
dispute with EU over screw imports - China launched its first trade dispute
against the European Union on Friday, complaining that anti-dumping duties
imposed on imported Chinese screws and bolts are discriminatory and
protectionist. -
more
Picket line protocol agreed - The labour dispute at Vale Inco's Sudbury
operations made its way into the courts Wednesday, as the company slapped
the United Steelworkers with a $26-million lawsuit as part of a bid for new
rules governing picket lines. -
more
Vale Inco strike to reach Brazil - United Steelworkers members, on strike
against Vale Inco in Sudbury, are heading to Brazil this weekend to escalate"
their public campaign against the global mining giant and cement ties with
international trade unionists. -
more
Voisey's Bay Strike Looms - For the second time in three years, workers at
Vale Inco in Labrador appear headed for a strike. No talks are planned, and
the United Steelworkers Union doesn't expect any last-minute return to the
table. Approximately 300 employees will take to the picket lines as of midnight
tomorrow. Wayne Fraser of the Steelworkers Union accuses the company of corporate
greed in trying to strip them of their bonus pay.
BHP, Chinese steelmakers clinch an iron ore sales deal - A face-saving agreement
over iron ore sales between Chinese steelmakers – who produce 38 percent
of the world’s steel – and BHP Billiton was finally clinched this
week. -
more
Rio Tinto: Will China's detention of employees scare off foreign firms? -
The lack of transparency over the case of executive Stern Hu raises questions
about rule of law – even as many agree China is within its rights to
investigate. -
more
Iron ore price negotiation still underway: CISA - China is still in talks
with the world's major iron ore firms for the annual supply deal, Friday's
Shanghai Securities News reported, citing Shan Shanghua, secretary-general
of the China Iron & Steel Association (CISA). -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Nintendo Wii Sales Fall for First Time
as PlayStations Drive Sony to Loss // State Bank of India First-Quarter Profit
Beats Estimates on Trading Gains // Japan Factory Output Climbs, Taking Quarterly
Gains to Fastest in 56 Years // Asian Stocks Rise as Mitsubishi Electric,
Honda, Nissan Advance on Profit // Volkswagen Profit Beats Estimates as Brazil,
China Offset European Slump // Alcatel-Lucent Posts First Profit After 10
Quarters of Losses on Cost Cuts // Stocks Climb as Earnings Top Estimates;
BT, Honda, Alcatel-Lucent Advance // Stocks Rise as BT, VW Profits Top Estimates;
Stoxx 600 at Eight-Month High // Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Climb; Continuing
Claims Unexpectedly Drop // Tyco International Earnings Climb on Workforce
Cuts; Revenue Declines 19% // Stocks in U.S. Advance on Earnings, Unemployment
Data; Motorola, GE Gain
The Euro continues to trade higher against the US Dollar, up by a little
over 1/10 of 1%, while NYMEX crude is up nearly 5%, and over $66/barrel.
Gold is higher by 1/2 of 1% and silver is up 1-1/2%. Base metals had a big
day, all ending solidly in the green. Indicator charts show nickel took two
pauses during a day of climbing, once in early afternoon that saw a hesitant
$100/tonne retreat, and another $100/tonne retreat at teh end of the session.
Other than those momentary pauses, it was solid climbing throughout the day.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel finally closed above the $17,000/tonne
mark for the first time since Sept 26th of last year, closing at
$7.73/lb, and a new annual closing
high for 2009. Inventories of nickel stored in LME warehouses took another
hit overnight, but remain above the 106,000 tonne level. Cancelled warrants
stalled above the 1% level. And the Baltic Dry Index ended its three day
spurt and fell 54 points to 3,445. Its another worldwide rally day, as
speculation that the worst of the recession is behind us and economic recovery
is taking place. Market bears grow quieter by the day, as their March 'bear
market rally' refuses to peak out. In the US, initial weekly unemployment
claims rose higher than expected last week, ongoing claims dropped by 54,000
to 6.19 million. Besides the humanitarian aspect to more people returning
to work than losing their jobs, more workers means more income, and that
allows more consumer spending to enter the economy. Definitely positive news!
Let's hope it sticks.
(Dow Jones) Russia's OAO Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest nickel producer
by volumes, Thursday said its second quarter nickel output was 71,394 metric
tons, up 3.7% from 68,835 tons year-on-year, and confirmed its 2009 production
target is unchanged. Earlier in 2009 Norilsk said it plans to produce between
285,000 tons and 300,000 tons of nickel this year. A spokeswoman told Dow
Jones Newswires that Norilsk hasn't changed its production plans.
Vale CFO Fabio Barbossa - "Global industrial production has started to recover,
that's clear, and our business is deeply connected to industrial production
..."the stainless steel industry outside China (where "mills are operating
at high levels of capacity utilization") has started to increase production,
adding pressure to nickel demand. The scrap market has tightened further,
with prices rising relative to the LME nickel prices. Due to the low relative
prices of the 300 series stainless steel , the highest grade of nickel intensive
steel, its output is increasing strongly. The combination of these two
developments means that more nickel has been consumed per ton of stainless
steel produced"
(SG) The Canadian International Trade Tribunal issued orders following the
expiry review of its findings made on July 30th 2004, in Inquiry No. NQ-2004-001,
concerning the dumping of stainless steel wire originating in or exported
from the Republic of Korea, Switzerland and the United States of America
and the subsidizing of stainless steel wire from India. The Tribunal found
that the dumping of stainless steel wire from Korea, Switzerland and the
United States, and the subsidizing of stainless steel wire from India were
unlikely to result in injury. The Canada Border Services Agency will therefore
not continue to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on these products.
(WSJ) The latest WSJ/NBC News poll shows that 44% of those surveyed think
the economy will improve in the next year – roughly the same estimate
they gave last month. Just 21% said it would get worse and 32% predicted
it would stay the same. Their job security, though, continues to decline.
Six in 10 people said they were somewhat or very satisfied with their job
security, down eight percentage points from April and 10 points from the
beginning of the year.
Indonesia Inco
Q2 net slumps, plans cost cuts - PT International Nickel Indonesia on Thursday
said it would improve efficiency after posting an 89 percent plunge in
second-quarter net profit due to lower prices and weak demand in the economic
slowdown. -
more
Sherritt's
Madagascar mine hits new snag - Sherritt International Corp.'s troubled
nickel project in Madagascar faces a major stumbling block after a legal
firm hired by the country's new president said the certification for the
$4.5-billion (U.S.) mine may be invalid. -
more
POSCO May Emerge
as Major Player in M&A Market - A tumble in profits for the latest quarter
doesn't appear to be a major hurdle to POSCO's merger and acquisition attempts.
- more
Vale Sees Metals
Demand Recovery After Profit Slumps - Vale SA, the world’s biggest iron-
ore producer, said demand for metals is starting to recover and it may boost
output after second-quarter profit slumped. -
more
ArcelorMittal
CEO says steel business is recovering, posts third straight quarterly loss
- The world's largest steel maker, ArcelorMittal SA, on Wednesday reported
a loss of US$792 million for the second quarter, its third consecutive quarterly
loss, but said demand was recovering and that it would increase production.
-
more
(old news - add
details) Jilin province: 30000 workers at Tonghua Steel on strike to protest
against privatisation - Striking workers violently clash with the police,
the chief executive is dead, dozens of police vehicles destroyed and dozens
of workers arrested -
more
Iron ore market
likely to remain tight into 2010: analyst - Rising demand for iron ore worldwide
means the iron ore market is likely to remain tight into 2010, according
to an analyst note published Thursday by Australian bank Macquarie. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.27/lb
higher, and not showing
any solid signs yet of slowing its pace. Base metals are all trading higher
this morning. The US Dollar is trading lower against the Euro, but by less
than 1/10 of 1%. NYMEX crude futures are up 1-1/4% to $64/barrel. Gold is
1/3 of 1% higher and silver is up nearly 1-1/4%. In overnight trading, Asian
markets were slightly higher, while European markets are also higher this
morning. US futures imply a strong opening on Wall Street. The US Labor
Department just reported jobless claims for last week rose by 25,000 but
the continuing claims fell to 6.19 million. World equity markets are higher
thanks to overnight earning reports coming in better than expected, for the
most part. Base metals are being helped by speculation that the worst of
the recession is behind us, and yesterday's rise in the US Dollar halting.
SSINA Releases Market Data for April 2009 -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - on vacation next report August
3rd (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) Mining company PT International Nickel Indonesia, also known
as PT Inco, produced 16,300 metric tons of nickel in matte in the quarter
beginning April, up from 16,200 tons in the previous quarter, according to
a statement issued by the company Thursday. It produced 32,500 tons of nickel
in matte in the first half of this year compared with 35,250 tons during
the second half of last year, the company said.
(Dow Jones) Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken tips strong recovery
in LME nickel prices, based on expectations of a strong pickup in stainless
steel prices, confirmed by restarts in stainless industry. Aitken says rumors
of an imminent sharp drop in LME stocks, as restocking from stainless producers
is about to commence.
(Yieh) In line with the price increase of raw materials like nickel, chrome
and molybdenum, Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (YUSCO) has announced
that they will raise their price list for August. According to YUSCO, the
domestic price of 300 series hot rolled and cold rolled stainless steel coils
and sheet increased by NT$5,000/ton.
(Yieh) It is reported that one Japanese trader has increased the stainless
steel scrap price from ¥14,000/ton to ¥164,000/ton. Therefore,
Japan’s domestic stainless steel scrap prices are also increasing, because
the LME nickel price recently hits as high as US$17,000/ton on July 27th.
(Sino) Jinchuan Group, one of the largest nickel producer in China and even
the whole Asia, will buy an over 70% stake in the Munali nickel mine of Zambia
next month, according to an official with the Zambian government.
(AP) Junior minerals explorer Hannans Reward Ltd has done a deal with Kagara
Ltd and St Barbara Ltd to buy unexplored ground considered prospective for
nickel and gold in Western Australia.
(SSY) The latest SteelBenchmarker from World Steel Dynamics shows global
hot rolled band export prices to have risen to an 8-month high of $507/t
in July, a gain of $61/t (+14%) over the past month, compared with the
year-to-date low of $395/t set in April. However, the current price remains
54% lower than the all-time high of $1,113/t from a year earlier.
China Steel to raise domestic prices for the second time this year as demand
improves -
more
Western banks might restructure Rusal's $7.4 billion debt if the aluminum
giant considers selling the 25% plus one share stake in Norilsk Nickel it
bought from Mikhail Prokhorov last year, a creditor and two sources close
to the company's management told Vedomosti.
RUSAL has 7 weeks to convince banks on debt -
more
Japan Factory Output Rises 2.4%, Fourth Monthly Gain -
more
Sumitomo Metal Widens Loss Forecast on Seamless Pipes -
more
Profit in China's major steel makers expands in June -
more
China’s industrial power consumption stood at 1.20 trillion kWh in the
first half of this year, a drop of 5.9 percent from the previous year, People's
Daily reported. Industrial power consumption accounted for 72.6 percent of
the nation’s total during Jan-Jun, a drop of 2.9 percent year on year.
During January and February, China's power consumption dropped by 5.2 percent
from last year; then in March to May, the figure dropped by 4.3 percent,
3.6 percent and 2.6 percent year on year respectively. In June however, total
power consumption experienced the first increase since the beginning of the
year, rising by 4.3 percent.
While some analysts are proclaiming the recession "HAS" ended the Fed apparently
does not agree. (Beige Book) "Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts
suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer,
but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since
the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low
level."
Eramet Forecasts
Second-Half Loss After Steel Slump - Eramet SA, operator of the
world’s biggest ferronickel plant, said it’s likely to post a second-
half operating loss after demand from the steel industry weakened. -
more
DJ Eramet: Cut Surplus Doniambo Stocks, 1H Output 50,000 Tons - Surplus nickel
inventories at French nickel producer Eramet SA's (ERA.FR) Doniambo plant
in New Caledonia have been reduced following lower output in the first half,
the company said Thursday. -
more
Eramet expects to stay in red in H2 despite China - French nickel and manganese
group Eramet said on Thursday it expected to post an operating loss in the
second half, despite improved demand in China, as it reported a heavy first-half
loss. -
more
Prices Of FeCr
In Europe Rise Further For Tightened Actual Cargoes = Price Of High Carbon
FeCr Has Risen To 105 US-Cents Per Lb. / Cr, Having Exceeded Benchmark Price
- The market prices of ferro-chrome in Europe have risen further in last
week and, in view of a scarcity of actual cargoes, the current prices on
DDP base have risen to the levels of 95 - 105 US-Cents per lb. of Cr for
high carbon ferro-chrome and of 180 - 190 US-Cents per lb. of Cr for low
carbon ferro-chrome with carbon 0.1% max. respectively. -
more
The MEPS World Carbon
Steel Price Increases Again in July - Major steelmakers in the US have announced
a series of transaction price hikes over recent weeks for strip mill products.
These are steadily being implemented. -
more
Courtesy AISI - "In
the week ending July 25, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,254,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 52.6 percent. Production
was 2,120,000 tons in the week ending July 25, 2008, while the capability
utilization then was 88.8 percent. The current week production represents
a 40.9 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending July 25, 2009 is up 0.8 percent from the previous week
ending July 18, 2009 when production was 1,244,000 tons and the rate of
capability utilization was 52.1 percent."
BHP strikes blow against pricing regime - BHP Billiton has revealed significant
gains in meeting the ambition of its chief executive, Marius Kloppers, to
bring down the global iron ore benchmark pricing system that has held sway
for more than 25 years. -
more
BHP Billiton's new iron-ore pricing may collide with Chinese import curbs
- Iron-ore pricing moves on Wednesday saw BHP Billiton remove 30% of its
iron-ore from traditional benchmark pricing, accompanied by reports that
China may issue far fewer iron-ore import permits in order to restore pricing
balance. - more
Vale Sees Recovery in Ore, Metals Demand After Profit Slumps - Vale SA, the
world’s biggest iron- ore producer, said demand for metals is starting
to recover and it may boost output after second-quarter profit slumped. -
more
Ore imports set to slump at key port - Iron ore imports into one of China's
main ports are set to slump by up to 50 percent over the next few months
in the wake of events surrounding the Rio Tinto affair, according to a leading
official. -
more
China steel body chief dodges question on iron ore deal - The head of the
China Iron and Steel Association emerged from a closed-door meeting in Beijing
to wave off suggestions that an iron ore price deal with foreign miners was
imminent. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China State Construction Jumps on Debut
After Biggest IPO Since March 2008 // Honda, Nissan Earnings Beat Estimates
as Governments Offer Aid to Buyers // Toshiba First-Quarter Net Loss Widens
to 57.8 Billion Yen From 11 Billion // Asian Stocks Decline, Snapping 11-Day
Rally, on Commodity Prices, Earnings // Rebound at Daimler, Peugeot, Honda
Suggests Automakers May Be Past Worst // European Stocks Advance as Earnings
Beat Estimates; Akzo Nobel, Bayer Gain // U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Excluding
Cars and Planes, Unexpectedly Advance // Biggs Says S&P 500 Index Will
Climb 22% to 1,200 as World's Economy Heals // Stocks in U.S. Decline a Second
Day as Shares in China, Crude Oil Tumble
The US Dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro, up nearly 1%. NYMEX
crude is taking a beating, down over 5-1/2% after government data show a
larger than expected increase in crude oil inventories. Gold is lower by
1% and silver is off nearly 3-1/2%. Base metals ended lower, but considering
the increase the Dollar is showing today, they held up fairly well. Indicator
charts for nickel looked more like a $250/tonne ranged heart monitor than
the ski slope the Euro was sliding on. After a day of up and down movements,
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.37/lb
, $.31/lb
off Monday's close, and only $10/tonne more than we closed last Wednesday
at. Inventories of nickel stored in LME warehouses took a whack overnight,
and now sit just under the 106,500 level. Cancelled warrants slipped and
are in danger of slipping below the 1% level. The Baltic Dry Index increased
for a third day, gaining 24 points to 3,499, but losing momentum again. News
on the metals front was nearly non-existent today, but we supply what we
could below. Reuters is reporting US taxpayers will become the largest
shareholders in Citigroup tomorrow, in connection with the February bail-out.
We leave the finger pointing and blame gaming to the political party hard-liners,
on whether these tax payer funded moves were socialistic in nature, or were
mere moves to influence, ie manipulate, a plummeting stock market. Correction.
We shouldn't say 'tax payer' funded, as anything funded these days, won't
be paid for until our grandchildren are old and gray, unless of course, they
copy our fine example of fiscal responsibility, and leave their debts to
their 22nd century offspring. We can't help but remember the words logged
by Commander Robert Lewis piloting the Enola Gay, after witnessing the first
atomic bomb explode over Hiroshima. He wrote in his log 'My God, what have
we done?'.
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
Universal Stainless President and CEO Dennis Oates - "In a sign that business
is starting to return, total order entry has improved each month since April.
However, bookings are well below normal levels and our backlog has dropped
to $38 million at June 30 as our end markets remain challenged and inventory
restocking has not resumed in the supply channel. Our lean operations, low
fixed costs and continued aggressive working capital management should allow
us to generate positive cash flow and maintain our strong financial position
in the third quarter in spite of the current low volume environment."
(Dow Jones) The London Metal Exchange Wednesday announced changes to the
cobalt and molybdenum contracts it plans to launch in February 2010.
The molybdenum lot size was increased to six metric tons of molybdenum delivered
in 10 tons of molybdenum concentrates, the LME said in a press statement.
(Infogeo)Chinese imports of chrome ore and concentrate in June increased
by 9% but is expected to decline as prices climb. Prices for chrome ore rose
to 250 U.S. $/tonne compared to 220 USD/ton, and there are reports of purchases
at 270-289 USD/ton. Nevertheless, growth in demand is limited, because Chinese
steel mills and manufacturers needing ferrochrome are operating close to
maximum capacity
(Reuters) African Eagle says optimistic on Tanzania nickel deposits - Says
feasibility study on dutwa nickel project indicates that project would
(Reuters) ArcelorMittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, said it was not
buying any iron ore on a spot basis and all its ore purchases were based
on traditional contracts.
(MW) China today ranks as the world's leading producer of coal, iron ore,
gold, aluminum, antimony, barite, bismuth, fluorspar, graphite, lead, phosphate
rock, rare earths, talc, tin, tungsten, and zinc. It is also global No #1
in pig iron and crude steel. China also ranks among the top three countries
globally in the production of many other mineral commodities, such as molybdenum,
titanium, salt, and sulfuric acid. China ranks as the world's leading exporter
of antimony, barite, coal, fluorspar, graphite, rare earths, and tungsten.
There are opportunities for outsiders where China's demand exceeds supply:
iron ore, copper, bauxite, chromium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, lead, potash,
and, of course, oil.
The Commerce Department reported U.S. imports of steel in June were only
850,000 tons, down 18% from May and down 68.9% compared with June 2008.
Tanzania says 48 firms eye coal, iron ore projects -
more
China the 800lb Gorilla of Commodities Demand -
more
Vale Says No Talks
Scheduled With Canadian Workers Amid Strike - Vale SA, the world’s biggest
iron- ore producer, said no talks are planned with striking workers at its
Sudbury nickel operations in Canada and that the plant remains closed after
a planned stoppage. -
more
Devil in the
detail for Tassie's nickel mines - Andrew Michelmore must love the fresh
air down in Tasmania. When he was in charge of Zinifex, he paid an extravagant
$905 million for Allegiance Mining and its Avebury nickel prospect. -
more
End to two booms sparks another - The number of companies forced into liquidation
rose by 20 per cent in the 12 months to May, driven by the end of mining
and property booms in Queensland and Western Australia, according to a new
report. -
more
PM, the mining boom is not a passing phase - This week’s Newspoll shows
again that Kevin Rudd is a skillful and successful political strategist.
These qualities are also evident in his weekend essay, aimed at positioning
the government for an election that could be fought in tricky economic
circumstances, with unemployment and interest rates rising, a possibility
confirmed by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens. -
more
New Ausmelt nickel
smelter in China is a massive success - Ausmelt has successfully completed
provision of its Top Submerged Lance (TSL) smelting technology for the new
nickel smelting plant built by Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals, China’s largest
nickel producer, in the Gansu Province of China. -
more
Universal Stainless
posts surprise Q2 adjusted profit - Universal Stainless & Alloy Products
Inc posted a surprise adjusted second-quarter profit, helped by cost cuts,
and said order entry has improved since April. -
more
Sherritt International
Q2 profit sinks 70 pct - Sherritt International posted a 70 percent fall
in second-quarter profit hurt by lower nickel, cobalt and oil prices due
to weakened global industrial demand in the base metals markets. -
more
Courtesy
Merrill Lynch / Bank of America
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.06/lb
lower, with all base
metals trading lower this morning. The US Dollar is trading 1/3 of 1% higher
against the Euro and adding pressure to base metals trading. NYMEX crude
futures are down 2-1/3% and under $66/barrel. Gold is lower by 1/10 of 1%
and silver is off over 1/2 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets followed
American and European markets and ended lower. European markets are rebounding
this morning, while US futures show a potential lower opening on Wall Street.
The Commerce Department has just reported U.S. durable goods orders fell
2.5% in June, the biggest drop since January and follows two monthly
gains. After yesterday's fall in consumer confidence, numbers, this will
not give the bulls much to cheer about this morning. Metals news is very
light so far today.
U.S. Imports for Consumption of Steel Products -
more
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - on vacation next report August
3rd
(Yieh) Some market analysts expected that the price of molybdenum oxide may
hit US$18 to 20/lb in the following few weeks.
(Yieh) People expect that the orders on stainless steel in August will be
the same level as in July and as the rising raw material cost pushed the
stainless steel market price up. Some people predict that the stainless steel
output will be increasing further in August.
(Dow Jones) Mirabela Nickel Ltd. Tuesday said mining at its Santa Rita nickel
mine in Brazil will start in the next few weeks and construction will finish
in late September this year.
Brazil flat steel inventory returns to '08 levels -
more
Top steelmakers post losses, see slow recovery - The world's top two steelmakers
posted quarterly losses and warned the climb back to growth from the bottom
of the economic slump would be gradual, with China setting the pace of recovery.
-
more
BHP Agrees on New Ore Price System for Some Customers -
more
Domestic Steel Producers Release Study Showing Negative Effects Of China’s
Economic Policies On The U.S. Economy -
pdf here
(China Daily) Average wage per capita for Chinese urban employees grew 12.9
percent year-on-year to 14,638 yuan ($2,150) in the first half of this year,
said the National Bureau of Statistics Wednesday.
(MorningStar) June data recently reported by the Fibre Box Association and
American Forest and Paper Association suggest some signs of life in corrugated
box demand. While volume was still down from the prior-year period, the rate
of decline slowed noticeably, coming in at a drop of 4.3%, or 8.6% when adjusted
for shipping days. Using the crude "split the difference" method that often
provides a better sense of underlying volume, June's drop was 6.5% versus
a 10.3% decline in May and a 10.6% decline for the January-May period.
Indonesia Inco
cuts almost 3 pct of staff, no impact on output - PT International Nickel
Indonesia Tbk plans to cut 87 jobs, nearly 3 percent of its workforce, to
reduce costs in response to the global financial crisis, a company official
said on Wednesday. -
more
Mirabela Nickel
plans share offering for Santa Rita cost overruns - Mirabela Nickel is planning
another round of capital raising to pay for cost overruns at its flagship
Santa Rita nickel project in Brazil, the Australian nickel producer said
Tuesday. -
more
Chinese firm takes
over Zambia nickel mine in Aug - China's largest nickel producer Jinchuan
Group Ltd. will take over Zambia's sole nickel mine Munali next month after
the operations were suspended in March due to low nickel prices, the mines
minister said on Wednesday. -
more
JPMorgan Raises
Base-Metals Forecasts, Expecting Revived Demand - JPMorgan Chase & Co.
raised forecasts for prices of industrial metals on prospects for a second-half
rebound in demand driven by expanding worldwide factory output. -
more
China’s 71
Biggest Steelmakers Record Second Month of Profit - China, the world’s
largest steelmaking nation, said 71 of its largest mills posted a combined
profit of 3.55 billion yuan ($520 million) in June, the second monthly gain
after seven straight months of losses. -
more
JSL posts Rs 95-cr
profit in Q1 - Ratan Jindal-led stainless steel firm JSL’s net profit
more than trebled to Rs 95 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2009,
over the same period a year ago on the back of increased demand and productivity
at its plant in Hissar (Haryana). -
more
Yesterday,
we posted a chart from the Association of American Railroads. In their 'Weekly
Rail Traffic and Carloading Report', they report shipments of metals and
metal products fell 6.7% in 2008, compared to 2007. As of July 18th, shipments
of metals and metal products by rail had fallen 55.2% compared to the same
period last year. During the week of July 18th, they were down 45.5% compared
to the same week in 2008.
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China to Cut Gasoline, Diesel
Prices Tomorrow, State Broadcaster CCTV Says // Indonesian Government to
Unveil More Investment Initiatives, Boediono Says // Asian Stocks Rise for
11th Day; Sumitomo Mitsui, JFE Gain on Broker Calls // Deutsche Bank Declines
After Provisions for Bad Loans Soar to $1.4 Billion // BP Says It Sees Little
Evidence of Recovery in Demand as Profit Drops 53% // EU Said to Plan WTO
Complaint Against Philippine Taxes on Imported Liquor //
European Stocks Fall From Eight-Month High; Deutsche Bank, BP Shares Drop
// Home Prices in U.S. Cities Post Monthly Rise; Consumer Confidence Declines
// Fed's Yellen Seeing `First Solid Signs' of Emergence From U.S. Recession
// Stocks in U.S. Retreat After Gauge of Consumer Confidence Trails Estimates
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, now by 1/2 of 1%.
With the Dollar rising and equity markets lower, it's a safe bet it was going
to be ugly in commodities today. NYMEX crude, down over2%. Gold - down over
1-1/2%. Silver - down nearly 2-1/2%. Base metals - only aluminum squeaked
out a gain. Indicator charts show nickel was holding its own until mid-afternoon,
when it finally succumbed to the pressure. Dow Jones reports three month
nickel ended the day at $7.54/lb
.
Inventories of nickel stored in LME authorized warehouses rose a tad overnight,
the same amount they fell the prior day, and remain just under the 107,000
tonne level. Cancelled warrants remain below the 1-1/2% level. Sucden's day
old chart shows the invisible ceiling we mentioned in yesterday's trading
(here). The Baltic Dry Index had its second day of gains,
up 68 points to 3,475. Conference Board reported consumer confidence continued
to slide this month, down from 49.3 last month to 46.6 this month. And the
Case-Shiller home price index rose for the first time since July 2006. We
posted some analysts comments on this below. Posted three charts below showing
that while most economists seem to agree we are at, or past the recession
"bottom", it has yet to show up in the transportation sector. One that
is more inclined to show a potential bottom, is the BDI chart, which we link
to daily above. Indicators are classified as leading, lagging, or coincident,
and transportation indexes would be, in our opinion, procyclic in nature
and fairly reliable as leading indicators.
Reports
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
(News Bites) Mirabela Nickel Ltd has filed and received a receipt for a
preliminary short form prospectus in all of the provinces of Canada except
Quebec in connection with a proposed overnight marketed offering of ordinary
shares in the company. .... Net proceeds will be allocated for cost overruns
at the Santa Rita nickel sulphide project of $US28.1 million ($A33.7 million)
in total, including a cost overrun of 6% of the initial capital cost estimate
for the project of $US434 million, pre-production costs of $US5.3 million
and recovery of a forex loss of $US5.3 million.
(MBiz) Taiyuan Stainless Steel Company's June yield was 200,000 tons, and
the company's output in July will remain at the same level. An official with
Taiyuan Stainless Company noted that its stainless steel production goal
for this year is 2.2mln tons.
(AUM Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.) The 3M Nickel forward prices advanced above
its recent reaction high of $16,600 and settled the week at $16750 levels.
Prices are expected to trade firm above the $16,600 levels. The market is
trading in a bullish trend channel and we may prices approaching $18,000-$18.500
levels, in the short term. Stay long in Nickel for the week.
(Sudbury Star) Liberty Mines Inc. announced Wednesday its McWatters Mine
is going back into production. The mine had been in care and maintenance
mode since October.... Liberty Mines will send its nickel concentrate either
to Xstrata Nickel's smelter in Falconbridge or the Jilin Jien Nickel Industry
Company in Panshi City, China. Thanks to a $30 million Cdn transaction completed
in the spring, Jilin Jien is now Liberty Mines' largest shareholder, holding
a 51 per cent stake in the company.
(SSY) The FOB price of Indian iron ore of 63.5% Fe content rose to a year-to-date
high of $75/t at the end of last week, compared with the year-to-date low
of $50/t set in March, according to data from U-Metal. This takes the delivered
price into China to $95/t, the highest level since October 2008.
(SSY) The number of Capesize vessels waiting to berth at Australia’s
coal load ports and China’s iron ore discharge ports appears to have
declined recently. In the last week the number of Capes in queues at Australian
coal terminals has dropped from more than 30 to 18, according to local sources.
Meanwhile, there are currently 65 Capesizes waiting to berth at PRC iron
ore ports compared with a peak of 88 in mid-June.
China H2 ore imports to fall 21 pct, prices to stay firm -
more
Wells Fargo John Silvia - "“Once again TV commentators that emphasize
the year-over-year numbers being down 17% are welcome to have their sarcasm
but they are missing the point as well as the turn ... Recession is over,
economy is recovering — let’s look forward and stop the backward
looking focus.”
Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics - "“We would not expect
any gains [in home prices] to last, because prices are still high relative
to incomes and rents, and also because the uptick in sales will, we think,
prompt a new wave of supply. But this is still very welcome news today.”
Business Outlook: A Second-Half Recovery Could Be Fleeting -
more(quote - The question arises because the early
stage of the recovery is going to be production-led, not demand-led. Businesses
have slashed output so far below the level of overall spending that some
increased production will be needed just to slow the overly rapid depletion
of inventories. That boost to output will be necessary even without much
growth in demand. And there's the rub. To keep the production rebound—and
the recovery—going into 2010, overall spending will have to pick up,
and that's the big uncertainty given the headwinds facing consumers.)
The Leaner Baby Boomer Economy -
more(quote - When 79 million people—nearly a
third of Americans—start spending less and saving more, you know it
won't be pretty.)
China's New 'Great Wall' Built on Easy Money, Speculation and Toxic Debt
-
more
The Long-Term Budget Outlook - Today I had the opportunity to testify before
the Senate Budget Committee about CBO’s most recent analysis of the
long-term budget outlook. Under current law, the federal budget is on an
unsustainable path, because federal debt will continue to grow much faster
than the economy over the long run. -
more
The Real Reason Unemployment has Skyrocketed -
more
Want to stay alive? Survival secrets from an expert who REALLY knows -
more
Posco deny
studying a stainless steel JV with ArcelorMittal - In an email to Platts,
Korean steelmaker Posco Tuesday denied rumors which emerged Monday of a possible
joint-venture with ArcelorMittal on stainless steel. -
more
Shine on nickel
lifts hope for Avebury mine - The bounce in nickel prices has raised hopes
that the mothballed Avebury nickel mine near Zeehan on Tasmania’s west
coast could be reopened by its new owner, China’s Minmetals. -
more
Mirabela Nickel hits both sides of globe - Mirabela Nickel is trying to raise
money on both sides of the globe Tuesday with an approach to selling stock
that’s caused heartburn of late. -
more
Analysis: Steel
boss killed as Chinese privatisation risks rise - As the crowd of Chinese
steel workers meeting with their new boss grew angrier, someone hurled a
chair. Others kicked and hit. Finally, Chen Guojun was thrown down some stairs
to his death. -
more
Imports
and Exports thru LA, Long Beach and NY/NJ ports (Jan 07 thru June 09)
(note - all 3 terminals showed a drop in exports in June from May,
only NY/NJ showed an increase in imports for the month)
American
Trucking Association's Advance Seasonally Adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage
Index (Jan 07 thru June 09)
Rail Time
Indicators (courtesy Association of American Railroads)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.04/lb
higher, although the
US Dollar has recently started gaining on the Euro, and all base metals are
off earlier highs. The US Dollar spent much of the morning lower against
the Euro, but has recently gone positive, albeit slightly. NYMEX crude futures
are off 3/4 of 1% and under $68/barrel. Gold is off 4/10 of 1% and silver
is down the same. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended higher, with
European markets trading lower this morning. US futures show Wall Street
may open lower as well. MarketWatch reports "Goldman and other big
investment firms are scheduled to appear at a series of hearings held by
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission starting Tuesday, as the Obama
administration launches its biggest move yet to clamp down on commodities
speculation, which has roiled prices from oil to corn and wheat in recent
years." Bank of America has announced it will close approximately 10% of
its 61,000 branches. Later this morning, we get the S&P/Case-Shiller®
home price index, and Consumer Confidence numbers. More reports out of Papua
New Guinea that the Ramu nickel mine under construction there has been shut
down temporarily, and today, the China Metallurgical Construction Group Corp
is not denying the reports.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - on vacation next report August
3rd
(CBI) - Jinchuan Group, which has suspended a flash furnace for maintenance,
has raised its nickel benchmark price by 3.2% after strong LME nickel gains.
The new list price for nickel is 128,000 yuan ($18,740) per tonne, up 4,000
yuan from the previous offer, said Jinchuan, China's largest nickel producer.
(press release) The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.4 percent in June. In May,
SA tonnage jumped 3.2 percent. June’s decrease, which lowered the SA
index to 99.8 (2000=100), wasn’t large enough to completely offset the
robust gain in the previous month. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) index,
which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before
any seasonal adjustment, equaled 107.3 in June, up 5.2 percent from May.
Compared with June 2008, tonnage fell 13.6 percent, which surpassed
May’s 11 percent year-over-year drop. June’s contraction was the
largest year-over-year decrease of the current cycle, exceeding the 13.2
percent drop in April.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke - "A lot of things happened,
a lot came together, [and] created probably the worst financial crisis, certainly
since the Great Depression and possibly even including the Great Depression."
Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank - "We expect further increases in U.S. card
charge off rate through 2009 as the economy continues to weaken. It is likely
that … our U.S. card charge off rate will increase at a faster pace
than the broader economy as a result of the denominator effect and our
implementation of OCC minimum payment requirements ... We expect monthly
U.S. card charge off rates to cross 10% in the next couple of months."
Money week - "The International Monetary Fund reckons that of the $1,914bn
in outstanding US consumer debt, 14% will go bad."
Merafe Resources
Says 1st Half Ferrochrome Production Falls 60% - Merafe Resources Ltd. Tuesday
said ferrochrome production at its joint venture with Xstrata PLC fell 60%
in the first half of the year after it idled furnaces in response to a sharp
fall in demand for the stainless steel ingredient. -
more
PNG stops Ramu nickel
project over safety - Construction of Papua New Guinea's Ramu nickel mine
and processing plant has been stopped due to health and safety concerns,
PNG's chief mines inspector said in a statement on Tuesday. -
more
Ramu nickel mine closed by Govt - Operations at the huge Ramu nickel and
cobalt project were shut down last week by order of the Government’s
chief inspector of mines. -
more
Xstrata's H1
nickel output up 185% - Swiss mining giant Xstrata increased nickel production
at its Australian operations by 185 per cent during the first half of calendar
2009 compared to the same period a year earlier. -
more
MMG reviews reopening Avebury mine - Minerals and Metals Group (MMG) is reviewing
whether to reopen the mothballed Avebury nickel mine and is restarting a
drilling program at its Rosebery lead and zinc mine, both in Tasmania. -
more
JPMorgan Raises
Base-Metals Forecasts, Expecting Revived Demand - JPMorgan Chase & Co.
raised forecasts for prices of industrial metals on prospects for a second-half
rebound in demand driven by expanding worldwide factory output. -
more
EU Hits China with
Anti-dumping Duties on Steel Wire Rods - The European Union decided Monday
to slap anti-dumping duties on imports of Chinese steel wire rods for five
years, a statement said. -
more
Union sees no talks as Vale Inco strike takes hold - The union representing
striking workers at Brazilian miner Vale's Canadian operations is not in
talks with the company and expects a prolonged shutdown at the nickel and
copper mines, a top official said on Monday. -
more
China's CISA urges end of spot iron ore trade -paper - Senior Chinese steel
industry officials called on Beijing to consider abolishing spot iron ore
trade and sharply reduce the number of licensed importers, which they blame
for undermining their position in deadlocked iron ore price talks, Chinese
media said. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China May Press Geithner on Dollar,
Deficit, Economy in Washington Talks // Vale Resisting Chinese Demands for
Price Cuts as Steel Industry Recovers // Asian Stocks Gain on Profit Hopes;
Index Set for Longest Streak Since 2004 // Dollar Libor Declines to Below
0.50% for First Time as Banks Unlock Credit // Stocks in Europe Climb to
Eight-Month High; Pearson Surges, Ryanair Drops // Geithner Pledges Smaller
Federal Budget Deficits as Talks With China Start // New-Home Sales in U.S.
Climbed 11% Last Month, Biggest Gain in Eight Years // U.S. Stocks Drop as
Aetna, Verizon Earnings Blunt Optimism Over Home Sales
The US Dollar continues to trade lower against the Euro, but by only by 13/100
of 1%. This turnaround had an immediate impact on commodity trading, with
NYMEX crude now up 4/10 of 1%, and under $68.50/barrel. Gold is up less than
2/10 of 1% while silver is higher by 8/10 of 1%. Base metals all ended higher,
but thanks to the Euro sliding, were off session highs. Indicator charts
show nickel trading was choppy today, as if the market was beating itself
against an invisible wall, finally succumbing at the end of the session.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel still ended the day at
$7.68/lb
, it's highest
close since late September 2008. Nickel inventories stored in LME warehouses
fell only slightly overnight, with cancelled warrants still under the 1.5%
level. The Baltic Dry Index bounced back into the positive today, gaining
62 points to 3,407. The Commerce Department reported new home sales rose
11% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000. Higher than
expected but put into context that few media outlets relay, the 384,00 number
compares to 488,000 last June, and 834,000 in June 2007 (report
here). The good news
in the report is the supply in available new homes fell sharply. The major
news in the metals industry today, was the murder of a Chinese steel manager
over the weekend, at the hands of irate steelworkers. More below on this.
Found a video over the weekend that is worth seeing. Taken at the world's
2nd largest aquarium in the world located in Japan. Notice the diver in the
tank.
Click the video and go to original page / watch in high definition
Na Liu, China strategist with Scotia Capital - "It should also be noted that
China imported 1.7 million tonnes of low-grade nickel ore last month, up
81% MOM and 44% YOY, to the highest level since May 2008. This shows that
China’s nickel pig iron output has been rising, and should continue
to rise..... During the month, China produced 18,185 tonnes of molybdenum
concentrate (45%), up 17% MOM to the second-highest level ever. This shows
that some high-cost producers are ramping up output in China as prices have
climbed. .... With more evidence of a supply-side response, and sharply higher
sector valuations after the recent rally, we now choose to be less bullish
and more neutral. A steadfast bull since the winter months, we now reserve
the right to downgrade the global raw materials sectors to “market
weight” from “overweight,” from a China perspective, at any
time going forward. That said, given the accelerating Chinese economy, as
well as the emerging re-stocking process in the rest of the world, we are
definitely not bearish. We just want to flag the warning signs of potential
supply-side response and the recent quick run-up of equity valuations."
Angel Commodities - Base metal prices could remain upbeat but may come under
selling pressure by the end of the week as 1) profit booking after higher
prices could come in and 2) prices may come under pressure as we approach
the weekend and funds may liquidate their positions prior to the weekend.
However, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish on the back of
better-than-expected corporate results. The global economy is on its road
to recovery but the pace of improvement could be slow. The Federal Reserve
Chairman has indicated that the pace of the economic decline in the United
States has slowed down significantly and the final demand of production has
shown tentative signs of stabilization. But the labour market continues to
look weak and the unemployment rate could rise going forward. The currency
and equity markets play a crucial role in determining price direction.
China Iron Ore Price Deal Unlikely This Week -
more
Probe Mines Provides Update on McFaulds Lake Drilling, Massive Chromite Horizon
Identified -
more
(China Daily) The per capita consumption spending volume of Chinese urban
residents stood at 5,979 yuan ($875) in the first half of this year, up 8.9
percent year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Monday.
Deducting price factors, the growth reached 10.3 percent.
As copper price rises, rumours abound of market manipulators -
more
Beer Sales Sputter During Key Fourth of July Holiday -
more
Suicide rates show more Colorado farmers losing hope -
more
Chinese province
scraps steel plant takeover after riot - Jianlong Group has been told to
abandon takeover plans for China's state-owned Tonghua Iron & Steel Group
after a company executive was beaten to death Friday as 3,000 steel plant
workers protested job cuts, a provincial government official told local media
Monday. -
more
Manager killed in plant riot - An executive was beaten to death on Friday
as 3,000 steel workers threatened with job cuts protested following the takeover
of their company in Tonghua, Jilin province. -
more
Q+A-Chinese steel executive killed by protesters - Last week, an executive
at a private Chinese conglomerate named to manage the takeover of state-owned
Tonghua Steel was beaten, kicked and finally thrown down some stairs to his
death. -
more
How China's Steel Boom Turned Deadly - Chinese officials say they are on
course to achieve GDP growth of about 8% this year, and the fall's dire
predictions of massive unemployment leading to social upheaval haven't been
borne out. -
more
Iron and steel industry remains under pressure - China's steel industry shows
signs of revitalization thanks to the economic stimulus package in the first
half this year. -
more
(Dow Jones) China became a net steel importer in the second quarter for the
first time since the fourth quarter 2005 as domestic appetite for the metal
continues to grow, according to the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau. China
posted a 3.1 million metric ton steel trade deficit in the second quarter
of 2009 as imports rose 59% on-quarter to 6.6 million metric tons and exports
dropped 23% to 3.5 million tons.
Nickel Price Forecast
Raised by CPM for Final Quarter on Strike - Nickel will average 6 percent
higher in the fourth quarter than previously forecast after a strike at Vale
SA and increased imports by China, according to CPM Group. -
more
Steel prices likely
to fall 3-5% by September - CMIE also views that the uptrend in international
prices seen in June might not sustain due to overcapacity in the global steel
industry and that the domestic steel prices move in tandem with international
prices -
more
Stability in steel
prices to continue in the short term - Steel prices in the Middle East continues
to remain stable amid minor fluctuations with rebar priced between $460 (Dh1,689)
and $480 per tonne. -
more
Iran Produces Low-Cost
Nickel Oxide Nanoparticles - Findings of a new study revealed a new method
for practical and low-cost synthesis of nickel oxide nanoparticles for alkaline
batteries. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.07/lb
higher but trading
very choppy, with all base metals trading higher this morning. The US Dollar
is adding momentum to commodity trading, down nearly 1/2 of 1% against the
Euro. NYMEX crude futures are up 1% to near $69/barrel. Gold is up 1/3 of
1% and silver is higher by over 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended
higher, with European market following suit this morning. US futures, at
the moment, show uncertainty and a flat opening.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - on vacation next report
August 3rd
(Yieh) According to the Macquarie Group, the world stainless steel output
has increased by 24 percent in the fourth quarter of this year as compared
to the same period of last year.
(Yieh) Taiwan’s stainless steel prices could continue to rise in August
for the 5th month in a row, as last Friday, LME nickel price hit a new high
point for this year.
Numis Securities - "We believe that much of the immediate recovery has been
priced in and we expect base metals to maintain current levels - with downside
risk should macro indicators suggest that the economic recovery will be more
sluggish than expected."
(SG) It is reported that UK stainless steel scrap goes up again due to stronger
demand along with soaring nickel prices.
(SMM) Jinchuan Group, which has suspended a flash furnace for maintenance,
has raised its nickel benchmark price by 3.2% after strong LME nickel gains.
The new list price for nickel is 128,000 yuan ($18,740) per tonne, up 4,000
yuan from the previous offer, said Jinchuan, China's largest nickel producer.
Stirrings of new demand for base metals - As China's stockpiling cools, West
seen picking up part of slack in improving economy -
more
Rioting Chinese Steel Workers Kill Boss Over Layoffs -
more
Anshan Steel May Build Plants in Western Australia -
more
PNG mining chief
halts nickel operations - Papua New Guinea's chief inspector of mines has
revealed that work at a $1.7 billion nickel mining project has been suspended
because of health and safety concerns. -
more
(Dow Jones) China Metallurgical Construction Corp., or MCC, denied media
reports Monday that operations at its majority-owned nickel operation in
Papua New Guinea have been halted due to health and safety concerns. "We're
not aware of any halt in operations in Papua New Guinea," said an official
with MCC's news department, who declined to be named. -
source
ArcelorMittal
eyes $3 bln stainless spin-off - FT - ArcelorMittal, the world's largest
steelmaker is looking into a possible joint venture spin-off of its stainless
steel business, worth around $3 billion, the Financial Times reported on
Monday. -
more
Dow Jones - ArcelorMittal (MT), the world's largest steelmaker, Monday said
it "has no intention to dispose of its stainless steel business" despite
a Financial Times report saying it was considering a joint venture spin off
of its stainless steel division. -
more
Steel Prices For
Flat Products Increasing in All Main Developing Countries - Turkish long
product quotations were raised at the beginning of this month, but have since
fallen back due to low demand. -
more
EUROFER, the
European steel makers association, has announced in Its July newsletter that
the European Industrial Fastener Institute (EIFI) lodged a complaint with
the European Commission on 30 June alleging dumping of stainless steel fasteners
by India and Malaysia. Under EU anti dumping regulations the Commission has
45 days to publish a decision whether or not to instigate an investigation.
China tightening control over steel industry - China's stolen secrets
case against an Australian working for Rio Tinto Ltd. may have more to do
with Beijing's push to tighten control over its huge steel industry than
trying to dampen industrial espionage. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) South Korean Economy Grows at Fastest
Pace in Almost Six Years on Stimulus // China to Ensure `Appropriate' Growth
in Credit as Loans Rise, PBOC Says // Thailand's Central Bank Lowers This
Year's Economic, Inflation Forecasts // Asian Stocks Rise for Ninth Day on
South Korea Growth, Brokerage Upgrades // German Business Confidence Rises
as European Economy Moves Toward Recovery // U.K. Economy Shrinks Twice as
Much as Forecast as Banking, Building Slump // Euro Advances as Manufacturing
Contraction Diminishes, Confidence Climbs // De Beers Diamond Sales Fall
Most in Three Decades as Recession Saps Demand // European Stocks Decline,
Ending Longest Rally Since 2006; Ericsson Slides // Consumer Sentiment Gauge
in U.S. Posts First Drop Since February on Jobs // U.S. Auto Sales May Reach
10 Million Pace on `Clunkers' Plan, Analysts Say // U.S. Stocks Drop as
Microsoft, Amazon.com Fall; Exxon Mobil Shares Advance
The US Dollar continues to trade lower against the Euro, down over 1/2 of
1% at the moment. NYMEX crude is very quiet today, up 13/100 of a percent
and just over $67/barrel. Gold is up 1/2 of 1% while silver is over 1% higher.
Base metals trade in London ended mixed, but mostly higher. Indicator
charts show nickel did peak this morning, as we reported, slumped a little,
then climbed right back to its prior peak. Dow Jones reports three month
nickel ended the day at $7.60/lb, a new
closing high for 2009. Inventories of nickel store din LME warehouses fell
below the 107,000 tonne level overnight, while cancelled warrants slumped
back below the 1-1/2% level. This is the first time we have seen levels of
nickel below 107,000 since April 28th. The Baltic Dry Index appears to be
coming to an end, only down 10 points to 3,345. Sucden's day old chart shows
nickel trading thru yesterday, and today's trading broke thru resistance
(here). Edward Meir of MF Global says Monday's close will
be important because if nickel closes above his resistant line of $7.55/lb
for a second day, it would imply a technical breakout to the upside.
MarketWatch reports "U.S. consumer sentiment fell in July, according
to a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters, dragged
down by a big drop in expectations about the economy. Sentiment rose to a
revised 66.0 from a reading of 64.6 in early July, but was down from the
June reading of 70.8." Many analysts are forecasting the recession is over,
or coming to an end. Things are looking better, at least for now. Something
worth noting are two reports out of China today showing electricity usage
in Beijing and Liaoning provinces for June. Liaoning reports a 19.84% drop
in electricity usage during June, worse than the 15.23% drop it experienced
in May. For the year, usage is down 33.4%. The Beijing province reports a
gain of 5% in June after a gain of 25.47% in May and plus 50% gain in both
March and April. For the year, usage is down 38.33% in this province. Considering
power usage was cut to the bone last summer in preparation for the Olympics,
so while gains are expected in the Beijing province, the decline in recent
gains is pretty steep. Overall electric usage is reportedly in the positive
this month, but these are the only two provinces we can find broke down.
Beijing is not one of the larger industrial provinces, but Liaoning is. Take
the info with a grain of salt but it's there to be considered. Our slightly
higher theme this morning is not working out, as European markets ended a
nine day winning streak, their longest since 2006. Wall Street is also
trading "slightly" lower at the moment, but with the volatility index still
lower, we don't expect much change more from the day.
EUROFER Newsletter Issue 06 - July 2009 -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
(BL) India - Market analysts said the fresh rise in nickel prices was mostly
attributed to speculators buying who indulged in creating fresh positions
on expectations of pick up in demand in the spot markets
(MF) As chrome ore demand recovers in China, exports volume of chrome ore
from Turkey and South Africa have been rising. Just in June alone, Turkey
has exported 208,200 tons with a 207% increases from May.
Russia needs democracy to overcome crisis - Russia risks being a Third
World-style raw material exporter mired in economic crisis unless it boosts
democracy and the rule of law, the European Union's top official in Moscow
said in an interview. -
more
Indicators point
to improved metals economy ahead - The latest Index of Leading Indicators,
which is suppose to project economic activity three to six months forward,
was up 0.7% for June marking the third straight monthly increase. -
more
China's steely resolve
- China's steel mills yesterday issued a veiled threat that Australian miners
will be further punished for their intransigence in this year's iron ore
contract negotiations. -
more
Putin pledges steps
to support steel sector - Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pledged
on Friday to help the country's steel sector by stimulating demand for metals
and taking steps to offset protectionism in other countries. -
more
Workers at
recession-hit steel giant Corus scoop £2.2million Lottery jackpot -
A worker at recession-hit steel giant Corus today said a 'dark cloud' had
lifted after he won more than £2.2million on the Lottery with five
colleagues. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.10/lb
higher, with indicator
charts implying it may be peaking for the moment, with all other base metals
trading solidly in the green. The US Dollar is faltering and boosting commodity
sentiment, down 2/3 of 1% against the Euro. NYMEX crude futures are quiet
and over $67/barrel. Gold is higher by 1/3 of 1% and silver is up nearly
1/2 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended slightly higher. European
markets are slightly higher this morning, and US futures imply Wall Street
may open slightly higher. It's shaping up to be "slightly higher" day if
things keep going the way the appear at the moment. Astronauts aboard the
Space Station will be replacing two nickel-hydrogen battery's today, each
weighing nearly 370 pounds and costing about $3.6 million. Stainless steel
prices continue to rise in China and a stainless steel index we started following
in May, has gone from 95.52 on May 26th, to 103.36 today. The UK reported
a deeper than expected drop in their second quarter GDP, while a German business
sentiment index came in better than expected.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "It’s been a strange
two days in the metals markets. On Wednesday, prices pushed higher almost
single-handedly, this despite the fact that both oil and US equity markets
did not do very much. By contrast, on Thursday, we had a ferocious rally
in the US equity markets, along with an impressive rise in energy prices,
but metal prices were unable to sustain earlier gains and faded by the close
to finish roughly unchanged. We will have to see what happens over the course
of today’s session, but as of this writing, all three markets seem to
be in synch and moving higher-- crude oil is up by about $.20 a barrel, metals
are up across the board, (with a number of them hitting fresh 2009 highs),
while equity futures are pointing to yet another higher open for the US stock
market. ... Despite the heady gains of the past several days in a number
of markets, (which admittedly has taken us aback), we remain skeptical about
the sustainability of the recent moves and would be wary about jumping in
on the long side at this late stage. The stock market advance, in particular,
looks overextended, (up about 9% in eight trading sessions), as prices are
rallying on earnings numbers that have been juiced up by cost-cutting and
easier quarter-to quarter-comparisons as opposed to top-line revenue growth.
In fact, one research service pointed out that of the several major companies
beating estimates before the opening on Thursday, only Hershey came in with
a year-over-year gain in revenue. .... Nickel is at $16,700, up $300,
and has also pushed past resistance at $16,630. Two closes above this level
would imply a technical breakout to the upside." (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
(Yieh) Due to rising raw material costs, price of wire rod grade A offered
by Taiwanese China Steel Corp. is expected to increase to NT$21,000/ton.
(Yieh) Although demand in Taiwan is not very strong, the stainless steel
price will increase by NTD3000~NTD5000/ton for August in respond to current
increase in raw material costs.
(AAGM) Liberia - Heads of two prominent foreign investments Arcelor Mittal
Joseph Matthews and BHP Billiton Country Representative Bob Heinrich said
the country lacks qualified and trained workforce needed in strategic areas
of their investments due to the 14 years of the civil unrest.
(CM) Steels prices in China had kept climbing by 14 straight weeks till last
week, according to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association.
(JMB) Japanese steel export decreased by 31.5% to 13.584 million tonnes in
January-June from same period of 2008, announced by Ministry of Finance on
Thursday.
(CS) China's daily power generation in the second 10-day period rose 8.5
percent year on year, an big increase over the first ten days of the month,
according to the latest figures from the power dispatch center of State Grid
Corporation of China on Thursday.
(AAR) The Association of American Railroads today reported that rail traffic
continues to reflect the sluggish economy with traffic remaining down year
over year for the week ended July 18, 2009. U.S railroads reported originating
268,553 cars, down 17.9 percent compared with the same week in 2008. Regionally,
carloadings were down 17.3 percent in the West and 18.9 percent in the East.
Rail carloadings were at their highest level in 15 weeks.
Asia: Preliminary Nickel Exploration Results "Encouraging" -
more
Rio exits Guinea iron ore blocs, rival in talks -
more
Commodities Signal 12% Rally by End of Year: Technical Analysis -
more
MacroAsia
eyes nickel processing plant - Listed holding firm MacroAsia Corp. is looking
to invest in a nickel processing plant in the Philippines once it completes
exploration activities in Brooke's Point, Palawan. -
more
Vale Inco strike hitting nickel inventories - The strike at Vale Inco is
beginning to bite" into nickel inventories according to one analyst, prompting
a Timmins-area nickel miner to re-activate one of its two dormant mines.
-
more
Beijing resumes iron ore pricing campaign - The China Iron & Steel
Association has continued its loud campaign for control of iron ore pricing,
speaking for the first time since the detention of Rio Tinto executive Stern
Hu and using a director of Fortescue Metals Group as its mouthpiece. -
more
Eyes peeled on China iron ore deal as CISA convenes - When China's steel
executives meet next week for their biannual meeting, issues such as first-half
performance and oversupply may take a back seat as the industry body braces
itself to be grilled about its protracted iron ore talks with global miners.
-
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Japan, Taiwan Export Declines Ease
Amid Signs Global Economy Is Picking Up // Wen Douses Speculation China May
Tighten Policy After Record Loan Growth // Asian Stocks Gain on Weaker Yen,
U.S. Housing Prices; Toyota, Funai Rise // Credit Suisse Net Rises 29% as
Revenue From Trading Stocks, Bonds Doubles // U.K. Set to Sell 5 Billion
Pounds of Inflation Bonds, Twice Planned Amount // Stocks in Europe Advance
for Ninth Day; Roche, Credit Suisse Shares Rise // Existing Home Sales in
U.S. Rise for Third Month on Lower Borrowing Costs // Dow Average Exceeds
9,000 for First Time Since January on Earnings Reports
The US Dollar is trading 2/10 of 1% lower against the Euro, and NYMEX crude
is 2-3/4% higher, and over $67/barrel. Gold is up 2/3 of 1%, while silver
is less than 1% higher. Base metals ended the day quietly, and mostly higher,
except for big gainers tin and nickel. Indicator charts show nickel started
the session strong, weakened during the early afternoon, before rebounding
late. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.44/lb, its third highest
close for the year. LME stored inventories of nickel grew moderately overnight,
while the Baltic Dry Index slipped another 52 points. Dow Jones quoted an
unnamed London trader this morning as saying the fair value for nickel has
been placed at $14.51/lb ($32,000/ton). If anyone has further information
on "who" established this fair value, we would be interested in the information.
Wall Street is way up today on news that existing home sales rose again in
June. Even the ultra bears had to grudgingly admit this was very good news.
The US Cash for Clunkers program starts Friday, which will soon be adding
a lot of metal scrap to the US market.
(News Bites) Pioneer Nickel Ltd advised the final share holding of former
director Peter Langworthy to be 1,250,000 shares held indirectly. He resigned
on July 22, 2009.
(Reuters) Guinea has threatened to suspend Rio Tinto operations in the country
if the miner does not remove its equipment this week from disputed iron ore
concessions, according to a letter from the mining minister seen by Reuters.
A letter, signed by an official on behalf of the minister and dated July
14, said: "If the equipment is not withdrawn within a maximum period of one
week, your business will be suspended until the final implementation of the
decision."
Steelmaker Nucor posts second consecutive loss -
more
Steel Dynamics says Q3 outlook could improve slightly -
more
Nouriel Roubini - The global recession may end towards the end of 2009 rather
than sooner and the global recovery in 2010 will be anemic and well below
trend as leveraged and income/profit-challenged households, firms and financial
institutions are constrained in their ability to borrow, lend and spend.
Jim Rogers: Commodities are 'the best place to be' -
more
Americans Repaying Debt Most Since ‘52 Spurs Savings -
more
Americans not making money, much less saving it -
more
HuffPost's Real Misery Index: Recalculating The Hard Times -
more
(Canada) Recession over, recovery ‘nascent,' central bank says -
more
The commodities supercycle is alive and well -
more
One more sign Canada
is losing its place on world nickel stage - In the 1940s, the International
Nickel Company, commonly called Inco, launched an ambitious advertising campaign
telling the world about an “Unseen Friend.” -
more
China says 33 percent
iron ore cut "impossible," deal soon - A top China steel industry official
restated on Thursday strong opposition to settling iron ore prices at the
same 33 percent cut other Asian mills have agreed, but said a deal could
still be reached by month's end. -
more
Barnett encourages
Chinese investment in WA miners - Chinese steel-making giant Sinosteel
Corporation has been encouraged by Western Australian Premier Colin Barnett
to invest more in the state's mining companies. -
more
Steel rebound, Slowly - As we are finding out with the Rio Tinto case in
China, steel is now a very important and very political international business
and not just some sideline as many business people once thought as they headed
off to the tech and net sectors. -
more
We track
numerous indexes, as do many others, and wanted to update you on a few. Listed
below are the months where we are seeing the "bottom". We are not forecasting
these are "the" bottom's, just advising what appears to be when the index
bottomed out last. Is the Great Recession ending?
Robry Daily Gas Flows Industrial - May
Robry Daily Gas Flows Paperboard - April
Robry Daily Gas Flows Mining - possibly June
Robry Daily Gas Flows Metals - May
Robry Daily Gas Flows Bldg Materials - not yet
US Purchasing Managers Index - Dec 08
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index - still falling in June
Fed Reserve Industrial Production - still falling in June
Cass Freight Index - April
3 ports import TEU count - February
3 ports export TEU count - January
Wall Street - March
Nickel - March
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.05/lb
higher, but staggering
and off session highs, with other base metals mixed. The US Dollar is trading
flat against the Euro, but has been trading lower most of the morning. NYMEX
crude futures are off 1/2 of 1% and at $65/barrel. Gold is up 1/4 of 1% and
silver is only slightly higher. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended
slightly higher, with European markets mush the same this morning. US futures
show Wall Street could open in a bullish mood, although the Labor Department
just reported initial jobless claims rose last week, with continuing claims
falling to 6.22 million.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals roared ahead single-handedly
yesterday, even though both the US equity and oil markets did not do much
of anything on the day, closing mixed in rather listless trading. Neither
was there any dramatic move in the US dollar, but metals nevertheless pushed
higher on supply concerns from the copper side of the equation. ... Furthermore,
the jury is still out as to what will happen in China in the months ahead
with respect to its copper imports given that the government is now no longer
actively seeking extra units. In addition, as LME prices continue to rise,
some local demand retrenchment could take place as Chinese fabricators realize
they do not have the luxury of easily tapping into the export market to move
their higher-priced finished products. We are off to a rather mixed start
as of this writing, with copper slightly weaker, while other metals are mixed.
However, chart patterns left over from yesterday's sharp move higher suggest
that the path of least resistance is higher still, this despite the uncertain
fundamental backdrop. We, however, would not be jumping into the fray at
this point, as some metals are now overbought and due for a pullback....
Nickel is at $16,360, up $110. Yesterday’s sharp move higher seems to
have reversed the double top formation that seemed to be taking hold, and
we are now on track to test next resistance at $16,630. " (read Ed
Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Yieh) After Posco and Tisco have announced the price rise for stainless
steel products, Taiwan’s Yusco and Tang Eng might follow the suit to
increase. The expected raise is about NT$2,000~3000/ton, according to market
participants. If the nickel price on LME exceeded US$16,000/ton lately, the
increase will enlarge.
(Dow Jones) LME nickel is rising due to speculative buying, partly linked
to investors in China, says a London-based trader. ... He says the fair value
for nickel has been placed at $32,000/ton, should the economy recover.
(JMB) Sumitomo Metal Mining's Philippine nickel project, Coral Bay Nickel
reaches full capacity operation. The project started the second smelting
plant with 11,000 tonnes of annual output capacity in April. The firm increases
the first plant to neat full capacity of 11,000 tonnes after around 30%
production cut to focus on second phase commissioning.
(CM) China imported 16.07 million tons of coal in June, surging five-fold
from the same period last year, according to statistics released Wednesday
by the General Administration of Customs.
International Ferro Metals - In light of stronger demand for ferrochrome,
the Board of IFL has decided to recommence production from its second furnace.
It is anticipated that the restart of the furnace will begin in the middle
of August 2009, and will be ramped up to 90 percent production by mid September
2009. -
more
Australian BOM update - While El Niño indicators have fluctuated over
the past few weeks, the overall picture remains one of a developing El Niño
event. Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, which drive El Niño events,
currently exceed El Niño thresholds and are around 1°C above
average. Cloud patterns and rainfall along the equator are becoming consistent
with a developing El Niño event.
(SG) It is reported that the International Trade Administration Commission
of South Africa has decided to cancel the anti-dumping measures to the stainless
steel welding tube from Taiwan, Malaysia and Korea since July 15th, 2009.
(Globe and Mail - One more sign Canada is losing its place on world nickel
stage; The Nickel Institute is closing its Toronto office, 3 years after
the sale of domestic giants
KWG completes Ring of Fire royalty purchase -
more
Inside Dr. Bernanke’s E.R. -
more(pre-order book
here)
NBS official refutes charges of unreliable GDP figure -
more
Pat Hassey, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer - "Stainless
demand appears to be in an early stage of recovery. ATI Allegheny Ludlum
successfully implemented two base price increases. Effective May 4th we increased
prices by 69% and effective June 29 we increased prices by another 6%. While
base prices remain low we are seeing improvement from this historic bottom
of the first half of 2009. Industry data released last week indicates that
service center inventory of stainless products remained near historical low
levels in June at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.5 months. Many of our service
center customers tell us that they continue to keep their inventories at
low levels in order to avoid raw material risk and to conserve cash."
Question Dave Martin – Deutsche Bank - I wanted to start with the stainless
steel business. What operating rate were you running at in the second quarter
and where would your utilization rate be today? Secondly, can you comment
on any opportunities to export stainless steel that you are seeing? - (A)
We are running in 50-60% of capacities. We are seeing more volume in the
second half. We have a very receptive particular customer base in Europe
for our stainless steel products and we are seeing better shipments in the
second half of the year to export out of the country as that market in Europe
recovers. So, we are somewhat cautious but encouraged a bit on the stainless
steel side. Price increases certainly are helpful. I think there is certainly
the ability to do more there. I think the market is stabilizing. The inventories,
there just isn’t inventory sitting out there..."
Question Timna Tanners – UBS - I wanted to follow up and ask a similar
question on the stainless demand and how much of that do you think is inventory
replenishing and how much of that is underlying demand. In the write up you
talk about still seeing weakness in auto and appliance so if you could also
talk about if you are starting to see improvement there? - (A) Let me just
mention it is a complete difference on the stainless side of the business
we really don’t see distributors in a restocking mode. Most of our customers
we see are customers who are actually pulling product for the demand levels
that they have. We see some demand gradually improving and in some areas
improving in a big way. On the automotive side we start to see improvements
in our precision rolled strip business which goes into such things as turbo
chargers for diesel engines, hose clamps and for other couplings and applications
like that. That business recently has gotten some real life into it.
Follow-up Question - Timna Tanners - UBS - So we have heard some comments
from other producers about not restocking, maybe that was a poor way of
explaining it, but trying to get ahead of nickel surcharges increasing. You
don’t see much of that phenomenon? - (A) No. We see pretty level bookings
and schedules even into the higher surcharge months.
Guest column: Chinese
nickel prices to continue uptrend in Q3 - Domestic nickel prices have surged
from RMB 90,000 ($13,175.81) per ton at the beginning of April to almost
RMB 126,000 ($18,446.13) per ton, representing an increase of 40 percent.
- more
Outokumpu swings
to Q2 loss, outlook disappoints - Finnish stainless steel maker Outokumpu
posted a smaller than expected second-quarter loss on cost cuts and higher
prices and volumes but its outlook disappointed, knocking its shares on Thursday.
-
more
No restrictions
on certain iron ore exports: Sharma - There are 'quantitative and qualitative'
restrictions on manganese and chrome ore exports but there were none regarding
export of iron ore lumps and fines of below 64 per cent Fe content, the Rajya
Sabha was informed today. -
more
EU Steelmakers
Eye 2Q Loss; 3Q Looks Better - Taking the pulse: European steel producers
are broadly set to post another consecutive quarter of losses for the quarter
ending June 30 as the economic downturn continues to take a bite out of demand,
but steelmakers say third quarter earnings will likely improve. -
more
Russian steel seen
asking Putin for support - Russia's crisis-hit steel sector will ask Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin for lower taxes, simplified debt financing and other
privileges at this Friday's meeting in Magnitogorsk, analysts and industry
sources say. -
more
Five countries accounted
for 90% of China June iron ore imports - China imported 55.3 million mt of
iron ore in June, 49.94 million mt of which came from Australia, Brazil,
India, South Africa and Ukraine, according to data published Wednesday by
China Customs. -
more
Gilbertson rewrites
history of BHP sacking - January 4, 2003 is a day deep-etched in BHP Billiton's
brief, spectacular history. It was the day The Don finally did in The Brian,
delivering BHP Billiton with its very own version of The Dismissal.
- more
China urges Australia to respect judicial sovereignty in Rio Tinto case -
A senior Chinese official said Wednesday that espionage charges against staff
of Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto would be handled quickly, but
urged the Australian side to treat the case "properly" and to respect China's
judicial sovereignty. -
more
Row over 'Rio four' deepens on China claims - The row over the four Rio Tinto
executives detained in China amid allegations of spying deepened today as
it emerged that China told the Australian Government that it has "sufficient
evidence" to support the accusations. -
more
Australia min says told China wants action on Rio - Australian Foreign Minister
Stephen Smith told his Chinese counterpart on Thursday he wanted the case
of detained Rio Tinto employees in China dealt with quickly. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Chinese Rush to Open Stock Trading
Accounts Following Lifting of IPO Ban // Malaysia's June Consumer Prices
Post First Decline in More Than 22 Years // Most Asian Stocks Gain on Speculation
Profits Will Rise; Shin-Etsu Climbs // BOE Unanimously Maintained Asset Plan
as Economic Growth Risks Diminished // Fiat Posts Second Straight Loss as
Truck-Sales Slump Counters Car Demand // U.K. Inflation-Bond Sale May Get
Boost From Bank of England, Investec Says // Stocks Rise for Eighth
Day; Stoxx 600 Has Longest Run of Gains Since 2006 // Morgan Stanley Sets
Aside 72% of Second-Quarter Revenue for Employee Pay // Bernanke Says Consumer
Protection Should Be Made Formal Policy Goal of Fed // Morgan Stanley Reports
Loss Larger Than Estimates on Costs to Repay U.S.
The Euro is now trading higher against the US Dollar, up over 1/10 of 1%.
NYMEX crude is down 1/3 of 1%, with and silver now higher, by 1/2 of 1% and
over 1% respectively. Base metals were mostly in the red this morning, but
all needed solidly in the green. Indicator charts show that upward trend
we mentioned this morning did not give up all day, and looked to have more
gas left at closing. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.37/lb. LME stored inventories
of nickel got whacked overnight and fell below the 107,500 level. Cancelled
warrants slipped below 2%. The Baltic Dry Index fell again, down 48 points
to 3,407, but this decline isn't showing the bearish plunge the last drop
experienced. In our opinion, three things gave nickel a boost this morning.
Japan’s largest nickel maker forecasting a "substantial recovery" in
demand, reports that China imported yet another record amount of nickel in
June, and inventories falling in the shadow of the Sudbury strike. Market
optimism doesn't hurt either, and its possible some shorts had to recover
after the analysts big forecasted correction never materialized. Sucden's
day old chart shows nickel trading thru yesterday
(here).
(Dow Jones) Zambia's sole nickel producer, Munali Nickel Mine, currently
under care and maintenance, is expected to re-open before the end of the
year, the director of the Chamber of Mines of Zambia told Dow Jones Newswires
Wednesday.
(Dow Jones) Dwyka Resources Limited, the Australian and London-listed mining
company with interests in the Barberton style gold project in Swaziland and
a nickel exploration project in Burundi, said Wednesday a work programme
has started at the Ethiopian gold projects, with focus on the Tulu Kapi and
Yubdo gold prospects alongside its existing assets.
Pee Power: Urine Isn't Just "Waste," it's Useful Energy and Possibly Car
Fuel -
more
Stainless steel
output in first quarter slumped to worst level since 2000 - Only 4,8-million
tons of stainless steel was produced worldwide in the first quarter of 2009,
the lowest quarterly output level since 2000, the International Stainless
Steel Forum (ISSF) reported last month. -
more
Demand is deceiving
- The trend for metals demand is being masked by restocking, resources giant
BHP Billiton said on Wednesday in a production update. -
more
BHP sees mixed commodities demand outlook - Restocking of commodities
in China may have ended, coinciding with fresh inventory building in other
markets and painting a mixed picture for global demand, said BHP Billiton,
the world's largest miner. -
more
European steel
demand, prices depressed in near term: Moody's - The outlook for the European
steel industry is negative, reflecting weak demand that is not likely to
improve until well into 2010, as well as depressed steel prices that are
not likely to recover to levels required for appropriate long-term returns
in the near term, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. -
more
Nippon Steel to
likely keep furnace off in '09 - Nippon Steel Corp will likely keep a blast
furnace near Tokyo shut down for the remainder of 2009 due to an unclear
outlook for demand in Japan, the president of the world's second-biggest
steelmaker said. -
more
Russia Norilsk
denies planning generous dividend - Russia's metals giant Norilsk Nickel
on Wednesday said it had not yet decided on dividend payments, denying a
report by UniCredit Securities brokerage of plans for a hefty first half
payout. -
more
Nickel bonus good
for city: prof - Industry Minister Tony Clement and the Conservative government
of Stephen Harper have a vested interest -- as do all Canadians -- in United
Steelworkers retaining their nickel price bonus, says a Sudbury economist.
-
more
Steel Trap: How
to Stop Chinese Steel from Selling State Secrets - The case of the four Rio
Tinto employees suspected of stealing state secrets is far from over and
the nature of the state secrets that they are accused of stealing is still
not public knowledge. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.02/lb
but on an upward
trend at the moment, with most metals lower and quiet. The US Dollar is adding
pressure to base metals this morning, up 1/4 of 1% against the Euro. NYMEX
crude futures are down 1% and under $65/barrel. Gold is off nearly 2/10 of
1% and silver is lower by nearly 7/10 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian
markets ended slightly lower, with India dragging down the other gainers.
European markets are slightly lower this morning, and futures show Wall Street
could open much lower. China reports record levels of nickel imports last
month, which means the statement by Chinese officials that the stocking of
nickel was ending was either referring to the period after these imports
arrived, or was a bluff to hopefully drive world pricing lower. We added
a link overnight that follows the chain of events leading up to the arrest
of the Rio staff in China on espionage charges from articles we had linked
to from this site
(here).
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals finished mixed
yesterday, but the advances we saw in the two bellwethers, copper and ali,
were not that convincing, as gains faded sharply over the course of the day.
Copper for example, was up by about $110 at one point, and officially closed
$90 higher, but prices ended up flat by the end of the US session. Ali closed
with a $5 gain, but the rest of the metals never really gained much upside
traction, and finished the day with modest losses. We are modestly lower
in Wednesday’s action, (except for ali) but conditions are very quiet,
with trading ranges tight. Energy prices are lower on account of bearish
API numbers released overnight, suggesting that the more important EIA numbers--
out later today --will follow in a similar vein. The dollar is slightly stronger,
trading below the 1.42 mark against the Euro, while US stocks are called
to open lower. If these patterns hold over the course of the day, we could
see the selling pressure increase on metals.... Nickel is at $15,850, down
$100. The complex had a weak session yesterday, and with prices off again
today, the double-top formation seems to be filling in, suggesting that we
could see further downside. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
(JMB) Japanese raw steel output decreased by 40.7% to 36.69 million tonnes
in January-June from same period of 2008, which represented the largest drop
as half year of calendar year and the lowest level as first half year since
1968, announced by Japan Iron and Steel Federation on Tuesday.
BHP Billiton says full-year was ‘very challenging’, but it achieved
a solid performance -
more
Allegheny Technologies Announces Second Quarter Results -
more
China: 2 Trillion Dollars Looking for Commodities to Buy -
more
Foundation of China's industrial recovery unsound: official -
more
(Reuters) China's
refined nickel imports hit a record of 41,008 tonnes in June, up from May's
record 25,032 tonnes.
China Posts Record June Metal Imports; Commodity Trade Surges - China's commodity
imports surged in June, with copper and nickel posting monthly records, as
signs of demand recovery, arbitrage flows and tight supply conditions drew
metals and agricultural products. -
more
Table - China June nickel, lead, zinc, tin trade -
more
Sumitomo Metal Mining
Forecasts Rising Nickel Demand - Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan’s
largest nickel maker, forecast a “substantial recovery” in demand
in the six months starting October as customers boost production and increase
commodity purchases. -
more
Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 15th July 2009 = As Prices
Of Manganese Ores Have Bottomed Out, Prices Of Manganese Ferro-Alloys Have
Turned To Rise - The market tendency by item on imports of ferro-alloys into
Japan at the 15th July of 2009 is as follows: -
more
Moly producers predict
prices of US$19 per pound, say demand will be led by China - Producers of
molybdenum, a mineral used to strengthen certain types of high-end steel,
say explosive Chinese growth over the next 15 years will bring tightness
back to a market that's currently struggling with the global recession. -
more
Colo. Molybdenum Mines Ready To Ramp Up If Needed - The head of an Arizona
mining company says future production at two Colorado molybdenum mines depends
on a recovery in demand. -
more
Ramu Nickel On Track,
Frieda River Copper Proj May Go Bigger - The US$1.4 billion Ramu nickel project
in Papua New Guinea is on schedule for completion and commissioning before
the end of the this year, part-owner Highlands Pacific Ltd said in a quarterly
report Wednesday. -
more
MEPS Reports A Slight
Upturn in EU Steel Prices in July - Demand and prices are strengthening in
the European strip market as the destocking phase is all but over and buyers
need to fill the gaps in their inventories. -
more
Vale official lying,
union director says - United Steelworkers are going to have someone on the
"inside" challenge Vale SA president and chief executive officer Roger Agnelli
to defend his comments that Vale Inco's Sudbury operations are not financially
sustainable. -
more
$720,000,000
the cost of BHP's non-take-over of Rio Tinto - Nearly three-quarters of a
billion dollars were spent on the aborted takeover of Rio Tinto by BHP. Just
imagine what that would translate to in share dividends. Instead it was directed
to Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street folk for services rendered. -
more
Australia minister says still hopes for China Rio talks - Australian Foreign
Minister Stephen Smith said on Wednesday he still hoped to meet his Chinese
counterpart to discuss Rio Tinto's detained employees after Beijing officials
said no meeting was planned. -
more
Spot ore rates key to steel lobby stance - The spot price of iron ore will
climb in the second half of the year if the Japanese and South Korean economies
recover, and this possibility may force China to accept the 33-percent discount
in full-year ore rates now being offered by global miners, industry experts
said. -
more
China's Wuhan Steel inks iron ore pacts in Australia, Canada - Chinese
steelmaker Wuhan Steel has finalized a deal with Australia's Centrex Metals
Ltd, or CXM, for the development of iron ore resources in southern Australia's
Eyre Peninsula, Wuhan Steel said Tuesday. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China's Bonds to Decline on Money Supply
Curbs, Everbright Pramerica Says // Samsung SDI Posts Unexpected Profit Increase
on Rechargeable Battery Sales // Asian Stocks Gain on Economic Recovery
Speculation; Commodity Shares Rise // Volvo Predicts `Difficult' Quarter
as Sales Drop, Customers Delay Payment // Credit Suisse Says Buy Equities,
Trim Bonds in Reversal of Recommendation // European Stocks Gain for Seventh
Day; Stoxx 600 Is Highest Since November // Bernanke Sees `Tentative Signs
of Stabilization,' Says Rates Will Stay Low // CIT Expects $1.5 Billion Loss,
May File for Bankruptcy If Debt Swap Fails // Most U.S. Stocks Fall as Concern
Over CIT Group Offsets Caterpillar Rally
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, by nearly 1/3 of
1% at the moment. NYMEX crude is only slightly higher, up 1/4 of 1% and a
tad over $64/barrel. Gold is lower by 1/4 of 1% and silver is down over 1%.
Base metals mostly lower, except for copper. Indicator charts show nickel
staggered in the red most of the early part of the trading session, before
succumbing to selling pressure late. Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended at $7.22/lb, erasing the gains
from the last four trading sessions. Inventories of nickel stored in LME
warehouses slipped overnight, but remain above the 108,000 tonne level. The
Baltic Dry Index slipped for a second day, down 56 points to 3,455. No economic
reports out of the US government today. Market is lower on renewed concerns
CIT may be forced to file Chapter 11. Reuters reports the U.S. Senate voted
to stop production of the F-22 fighter plane today, giving President Barack
Obama a victory, and killing a project the US military said it didn't want.
Relocated and added two permanent links to the news section for as long as
they are relevant. One holds links for up-to-date Sudbury strike coverage,
and another for coverage of the iron ore negotiations and spy scandal.
Barclays analyst Gayle Berry - "We had been expecting a slowdown in China's
base metals imports, but incoming data suggest that the magnitude of that
slowdown could be less than previously thought. Anecdotal reports suggest
some strengthening in Chinese demand...With real demand expected to improve
further through the second half, it looks as though the fall in imports may
be modest.....In view of...the ongoing support from the processes of urbanization
and industrialization, we expect Chinese nickel demand to rise by 6.3% in
2010, with likely similar positive figures for the proceeding years."
(Interfax) MMC Norilsk Nickel expects to post EBITDA of just over $3 billion
in 2009 on condition that nickel, copper and PGM prices remain at current
levels throughout the second half of the year, UniCredit bank said in a note
to investors following a meeting with company executives.
Rusmet reports the Russian government is still interested in seeing Rusal
and Norilsk Nickel merge, and effectively putting Norilsk under state control.
(CMJ) Strongbow Exploration of Vancouver says that locked cycle testing of
material from its Nickel King project north of La Ronge successfully produced
a concentrate that graded 16.5% Ni, 4.2% Cu and 0.74% Co. Recoveries were
78.4% for nickel, 89.1% for copper and 63.5% for cobalt.
(Lange) The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) denies saying it
would terminate 20 or 30 traders' iron ore import licenses, as has been reported
in the media, but is reviewing the qualification status of the current 112
licences.
Vale Confirms Iron Ore Price Agreement With ThyssenKrupp -
more
(BN) Mining identity Andrew Forrest has donated around $10,000 worth of share
to his charity, The Australian Children's Trust.
Ros - For the first time since the 1998 crisis, the volume of housing
construction in Russia fell by more than 10%.
Investors start
to take a liking to metals - The volatility of the base metal mining sector
can be unnerving, but once there is a global recovery, share prices of the
mining companies can climb a lot higher. -
more
The 2009 Mid Year Commodities Review & Outlook - The first half of 2009
brought three critical events to the futures industry which sets up quite
an unexpected second half of 2009-
more
W.Australia
premier urges Rio case be handled quickly - Western Australia's premier said
on Tuesday that he had urged the Chinese government to handle the issue of
Rio Tinto's (RIO.L) staff detentions quickly to prevent hurting long-term
ties between the two countries. -
more
No End In Sight
For Vale Inco Strike In Canada - Estado - There are no signs of an end to
the week-old strike at Canadian nickel mine Vale Inco, owned by Brazil's
Vale SA. -
more
Platts News Feature
- Tide turning after price famine in steel alloying agents - Looking at the
roller-coaster fortunes of the steel industry over the last year, it comes
as no surprise to those supplying steelmakers with raw materials that their
own destinies have been turned upside down by the financial turmoil of the
last eight months. -
more
Molybdenum prices
expected to double in 2010 - Molybdenum prices have averaged slightly more
than $9/lb so far this year but an analysis by J.P. Morgan Securities warns
"expect moly prices to close in on $15/lb over the next several months and
to average $18/lb in 2010." -
more
POSCO restarts
mill in 5 months as demand recovers - South Korea's POSCO has restarted
operations of a blast furnace in five months after boosting its output capacity
by 60 percent, as the global steel industry recovers quickly from its worst
downturn in decades. -
more
Taiwan's China
Steel to restart furnace sooner - China Steel, Taiwan's top steel maker,
plans to resume operations of a key blast furnace earlier than planned due
to steady global prices as inventories were digested after demand picked
up. -
more
AK Steel stays in
red; offers better forecast - AK Steel Corp. registered a second-quarter
loss that beat analysts’ expectations, and predicted an improvement
for its third quarter. -
more
China Stainless
Steel Index
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.06/lb
lower, with base
metals mixed and fairly quiet this morning. The US Dollar is trading .02%
higher against the Euro at the moment, while NYMEX crude futures are 1% higher
at $64.60/barrel. Gold is up slightly, while silver is down slightly. In
overnight trading, Asian markets ended slightly higher, with China ending
slightly lower. European markets are up this morning, and US futures show
Wall Street should open on the bullish side after Caterpillar reported a
drop in earnings of 66% during the second quarter but much better than analysts
forecast. Reuters published an updated list of current average price of nickel
forecasts for 2009 and 2010. We have posted some of the more popular analysts
forecasts on our forecast page
(here).
Specialty Steel Industry of North America statistical data for April 2009
- pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals continued to push higher
yesterday, as a weaker dollar (which hit six-week lows), firmer equity markets,
and stronger oil prices, all coalesced to coax the complex forward. Macro
news out of the US also helped boost sentiment after it was reported that
the index of leading economic indicators rose .7% in June following a revised
1.3% gain in May. In addition, a survey of economists concluded that the
recession’s grip here in the US appeared to be easing, although participants
were careful to point out that they were not ready to declare an end to the
recession just yet. The current bullish backdrop is eerily reminiscent of
what we saw during the first half of June when markets were similarly pushing
higher on the back of the weaker dollar, rising equity markets, and expectations
that US recovery prospects were picking up steam. This time, better than
expected earnings seems to have replaced hopes for a stronger recovery, but
apart from that, the two periods seem very alike. That is why we are somewhat
wary about chasing metal prices at current levels, as readers recall that
the early June bounce ended up reversing significantly by the first week
of July. We would therefore not be surprised to see a repeat this time around,
perhaps once the earnings news is well behind us, and markets focus back
on the macro readings. Here, the numbers-- while improving--are not beating
estimates by wide enough margins to justify the big price rises we are seeing
in metals. More importantly, we do not have the “tail-wind” of
Chinese buying --so instrumental to the price advances made earlier in the
year -- at work this time around..... Nickel is at $15,900, down $325; Double-top
resistance at $16,630 is still giving nickel some trouble on the charts,
and today’s fade could prove serious if it continues to fill out the
second leg of the formation." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base
metals report
here)
(Yieh) Due to the stainless steelmaker cutting down on their output, buyers
with low stock, and the nickel price increasing substantially, the stainless
steel price in Taiwan has improved rapidly from the conditions in April.
However, while the domestic market is not so good, due to the steel price
being too high for buyers to accept, the export market remains comparatively
active.
South Korea's POSCO said it would raise domestic prices for hot-rolled stainless
steel by 7.1% to $2,387 a ton. The price of cold-rolled stainless steel will
go up by 6.5%. The company said it expects to remain profitable in the second
half of the year as prices and demand recover.
Mincor Resources Surges on Nickel Production Gains, Cost Cuts -
more
(Interfax) China's crude steel output up 1.23 pct year-on-year in H1
(Xinhua) China's Stainless Steel Output to Exceed 10 mt
(JMD) Sumikin & Nippon Steel stainless Steel Pipe/ To raise prices of
welded stainless steel pipes
(MB) Chinese stainless steelmakers have lifted weekly prices by up to 300
yuan ($44)
Tata Steel raises $500 mln in GDRs, shares bounce -
more
U.S. Steel's Canadian workforce shrunk to 23 per cent of promised amount
-
more
Vietnam - The largest steel plant enters into construction -
more
(China Daily) China's power generation in the first 10-day period of July
rose by 3 percent year-on-year, continuing the rebound in June, according
to the power dispatch center of State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC). Power
consumption and generation resumed growth in June, putting an end to eight
consecutive months of decline since last October.
Ocean shipping: Port Tracker report says May volume is up slightly -
more
(AF&PA) According to the American Forest & Paper Association’s
June 2009 U.S. Containerboard Statistics Report released today, total
containerboard paper production was flat in June compared to June 2008. However,
total production rose 144,400 tons or 5.5% when compared to May 2009.
According to the American Forest & Paper Association’s June 2009
Paperboard Report released today, total paperboard production decreased by
9.2% in June, 2009 compared to last June, 2008. However, total production
increased from May totals by 40,400 tons or 3.8%.
(SSY) In June monthly world crude steel production recovered to its highest
level since September 2008, latest data from the World Steel Association
indicate. However, at 99.8 Mt, this was still down 16% year-on-year.
China’s steel mills were at the forefront of the growth, producing (a
higher than previously reported) 49.4 Mt, almost half of global output, up
6% YoY. The other major annual gain was in India, where production climbed
5.7% to an estimated 4.6 Mt.
On the Economic Outlook and the Commitment to Price Stability by Dennis P.
Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
-
speech here
NPD Group reports customer traffic at US restaurant's dropped 2.6% in the
first quarter compared to the year before - the biggest decline since 1981.
Fast-food saw a 2% decline in customer visits overall but fared better than
pricier places, as casual dining and midscale restaurants recorded traffic
declines of 4% and 6% respectively from the prior year. Average checks at
restaurants rose 2% in the first quarter compared to the prior year, suggesting
patrons are visiting less, but spending more when they do visit.
Chong Yoon Chou, Singapore-based investment director at Aberdeen Asset Management
Asia Ltd. - "I think the recession is clearly over. Confidence is back."
Japan June crude
steel output down 33.6 pct vs yr ago - Japan's crude steel output dropped
by a third in June from a year earlier to mark the ninth straight month of
falls, but it picked up slightly from May in a sign the industry is gradually
recovering. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In
the week ending July 18, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,244,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 52.1 percent. Production
was 2,120,000 tons in the week ending July 18, 2008, while the capability
utilization then was 88.8 percent. The current week production represents
a 41.3 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending July 18, 2009 is up 2.6 percent from the previous week
ending July 11, 2009 when production was 1,213,000 tons and the rate of
capability utilization was 50.9 percent.
China's steel
utilization rate falls to 73% in Q2, from 77% in Q1 - China's utilization
rate of its steel refining capacity averaged 73.1% in the April-June quarter,
down from 77% in January-March, latest data from the National Bureau of
Statistics showed. -
more
Thousands unite
in fight to save Corus steel jobs - Steely determination remained evident
across Teesside today after a major jobs march through Redcar. -
more
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Dollar Falls to Six-Week Low as CIT
Prospects Boost Higher-Yield Demand // China Insurers' Profit May Have Doubled
on Premiums, Stock Market Rebound // Hong Kong Jobless Rate Rises to Highest
Since 2005, Dragging on Recovery // Asian Stocks Rise on Commodity
Prices, U.S. Housing; James Hardie Advances // U.K. Home Sellers' Asking
Prices Rebounded in July as Buyer Demand Climbed // European Stocks Advance
for Sixth Day; BHP Billiton, Boliden, Lloyds Climb // CIT May Get $3 Billion
Rescue From Bondholders to Avoid Bankruptcy Filing // Leading Indicators
Climb, Signaling U.S. Economy Nearing End of Recession // U.S. Financial
Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says // Stocks Rise,
S&P 500 Index Adds to Best Weekly Gain Since March; CIT Jumps
The US Dollar continues to trade lower against the Euro, by 9/10 of 1%. NYMEX
crude is higher, but only by 2/3 of 1% and under $64/barrel. Gold is up 1-1/2%
and silver is higher by 1.8%. Base metals all ended the day higher on the
weaker Dollar. Indicator charts show nickel spiked early, before spending
the day in a gradual decline. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended
the day at $7.36/lb. LME stored inventories
of nickel slumped overnight, but remain over the 108,000 tonne level, with
cancelled warrants closing in on the 3% level. The Baltic Dry Index ended
a four day spurt of energy, and lost 31 points to 3,511. Markets are bullish
today, but news is on the weak side. The Conference Board's index of leading
economic indicators posted a third straight gain, up 0.7% in June. The New
Caledonian Kanak activist group Rheebu Nuu is threatening action against
Vale's Goro project again. Jim Marbrook has been filming a documentary on
the island exploring indigenous land rights and mining in Kanaky/New Caledonia
for Pacific Media
Centre.(more) His project is also funded by "Creative New
Zealand’s Screen Innovation Fund has awarded a $24,900 grant to filmmaker
and AUT television lecturer Jim Marbrook. This grant will allow him to complete
his current documentary Eye of the Land, a film about indigenous land rights
and mining in Kanaky/New Caledonia." The documentary was presented at an
Australian Documentary Conference earlier this year, but we can find no further
showings listed, and thus may be a work in progress.
(Dow Jones) LME base metals are up, with copper and aluminum at new 2009
highs, but the rise is spurred by increased risk appetite not an improvement
in underlying demand, says Virtual metals in a report for BNP Paribas Fortis.
Says base metals have moved in almost perfect lockstep with equities, suggesting
that much of the 1H 2009 rally is confidence based.
(Dow Jones) Macquarie Bank says China's stainless steel production +20% on
quarter in 2Q, European production +14% on quarter helping nickel prices
rally. "Sharply rising orders for stainless steel in Germany, Japan, Korea
and Taiwan have prompted producers to increase production sharply in those
countries and further large rises are planned in the second half." Now tips
stainless steel production fall of 10.6% for 2009 to 23.7 million tons, an
improvement on expectations of 15% fall at start of year. Adds, funds taking
long positions in LME nickel driving metal's recent gains.
(Reuters) Views on nickel, one of the most unpredictable of metals, were
predictably divided, with a range of $12,125 to $27,500 in 2010. Median forecasts
of $12,886 in 2009 and $14,881 in 2010 were higher than January's $11,023
and $13,228, respectively. Nickel is hostage to the stainless steel industry,
where the additive helps improve the workability of the finished product,
but a surge in three-month LME prices to a record $51,800 in May 2007 has
permanently destroyed some demand as consumers tooled up to use substitute
elements like molybdenum, analysts said.
(Dow Jones) Russia's primary nickel output fell by 7.3% in the first six
months of 2009.
(Reuters) Brazilian miner Vale said on Monday it has closed an iron ore price
agreement with Italy's major steelmaker Lucchini, cutting prices by 28.2
percent from 2008 levels.
Unprecedented Global Aging Examined in New Census Bureau Report -
more
Positive Outlook
for Northern European Strip Steel Prices? - There is a mood of cautious optimism
in the northern European carbon steel community as business winds down for
the summer holiday period. Most players believe that activity levels in September
will give a good indication of the health of the market in the medium term.
- more
(courtesy reader
from Australia)
Australian Weather - Indicators suggest an El Niño event is developing
across the Pacific Basin. Conditions have reached a point that, should they
persist at such levels through the remainder of the southern winter and into
spring, 2009 will be considered an El Niño year.
Detailed Australian Analysis on past El Niño's in Australia -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.10/lb
higher, with all base
metals trading higher this morning. Commodities are getting some help from
the US Dollar this morning, which is trading 8/10 of 1% lower against the
Euro. NYMEX crude futures are nearly 2% higher and nearing $65/barrel. Gold
is up 1-1/2% and silver is higher by 1-3/4%. In overnight trading, Asian
market ended solidly higher. European markets are higher this morning and
Wall Street futures reflect a higher opening in New York on news lender CIT
Group has reportedly received a private sector bailout.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Copper prices hit five-week
highs on Friday, pulling many other metals in the group higher along with
it, while oil prices had their first weekly gain in a month. Arguably helping
the advance, were better than expected housing data, where both June housing
starts and permits came in well ahead of estimates. Construction of new homes
rose by 3.6% in June from the prior month for their third consecutive monthly
increase. The gains were driven by a 14.4% jump in construction of single-family
homes -- the biggest monthly gain in four years and the fourth consecutive
improvement this year. Despite this impressive bounce, we should note that
overall housing starts and permit issuance is still off by some 50% from
year-ago levels. Moreover, the existing home sales category, which is the
far more important reading of the housing sector, remains mired in a slump.
Instead, we think the more persuasive reason behind last week’s rise
in metal prices, was not so much the macro numbers, but the stronger tone
evident in the US equity markets, where stocks hit a one-month high on Friday
on account of better than expected corporate earnings. .... Metals are once
again sharply higher this morning, with copper and ali hitting fresh 2009
highs. Energy prices are also up, as commodities continue respond to the
better tone seen in equities. ... In other news, the LME has expressed interest
to attract business from the freight derivatives market to its trading platform,
having exploratory discussions” with market participants and claiming
it is a “natural venue” for forward freight agreements (FFAs).
Naturally, the Baltic Exchange is not happy about this move, saying, “We
are not in discussion with the London Metal Exchange regarding the potential
for screen trading in the FFA market, although we understand that they have
held discussions with some of our members. We will not offer our support
for changes in the marketplace which potentially threaten the existing and
sometimes fragile FFA liquidity.” Currently, FFAs are conducted on a
principal-to-principal basis, and are not traded on any exchange. In 2008,
over 2.1bn tons of freight in FFA contracts worth $155bn was traded. Volumes
are thought to have fallen by about half in 2009. ..... Nickel is at $16,448,
up $323; we have still not taken out double-top resistance at $16,630, but
seem to be getting there." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
(MP) India chrome ore export prices are set to rise in August backed by short
supplies of material and rising international ore and ferro-chrome prices.
The ferro-chrome traders are doing good business as demand and production
cuts by South African producers have combined to push up the spot price of
ferro-chrome. Sources say that the market is very strong right now and is
expected to rise further.
(CCR) China’s power generation has consecutive maintained positive growing
trend since June, and jumped 3 percent in the first ten days of July, Caijing
website citing the data from State Grid.
(SM) According to the American Forest & Paper Association’s June
2009 Kraft Paper Sector Report released today, the total Kraft paper shipments
were 122.4 thousand tons in June, and an increase of 7.6% from last month.
Total Kraft paper inventory decreased 12.6%, 9,600 tons lower than May 2009.
Four more banks bite the dust -
more Failed Bank List -
more
NY Times - Class resentment has waxed and waned in this country, but it is
not typically a widespread, default emotion of the American middle class.
This is at least in part because it’s an article of faith here that
through some combination of hard work and luck, you might get rich, too.
And why abuse, soak or heap scorn upon a group you at least have a theoretical
chance of joining? The recession — with its yawning gap between the
bonus class on the one hand and the foreclosed upon and newly jobless on
the other — is changing that. It’s not merely that Americans have,
at least temporarily, abandoned the hope that they’ll earn scads of
money. It’s the widespread sense that winners in this economy are produced
by a game that’s rigged. Which is why the response to last week’s
earnings bonanza has been a mix of, among other things, bafflement and anger.
If these companies can return to the festivities so quickly, were they really
having the near-death experience they and the government claimed? And if
taxpayers risked their money when they backstopped Wall Street’s
misadventures, why aren’t they sharing in the upside now that the party
has started again? And did these companies have the time to rethink the risk
culture that landed us in this jam in the first place? -
source
POSCO raises
stainless steel prices by 7.1 pct - South Korea's POSCO said Monday it would
raise domestic prices of stainless steel by up to 7.1 percent in its second
price hike in just one month to reflect improving demand and rising raw material
costs. -
more
Steel, Aluminum Shipments
from Metals Centers Continue to Decline in the U.S. and Canada –
June shipments of steel and aluminum from metals service centers in the United
States and Canada continued to decline, but generally at a slower rate than
in previous months, the Metals Activity Report from the Metals Service Center
Institute shows. -
more
June 2009 Crude
Steel Production - World crude steel production for the 66 countries reporting
to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 99.8 million metric tons
(mmt) in June. This is 16% lower than in June 2008. -
more
New
Caledonia’s Kanak activist group challenges nickel company to comply
with agreement - New Caledonia’s Kanak activist group, Rheebu Nuu, has
threatened to walk away from last year’s landmark deal with the Vale
Inco nickel company, unless the company changes its attitude and complies
with the terms it had agreed to. -
more
Idled metal
capacity restarts, 2009 projects - Encouraged by higher prices, a few
metal producers have started to reverse earlier cutbacks and project delays,
prompted around mid-2008 by plunging demand. -
more
Steel industry on
a consolidation mode - Contrary to expectations steel output in China will
not see any slowdown and would continue its strong growth trajectory this
year, according to industry experts. -
more
Iron Ore Above $90 as China’s Growth Fuels Imports - Cash prices
for iron ore delivered to China, the world’s biggest buyer, climbed
above $90 a ton for the first time this year as rebounding growth in the
Asian nation drove imports. -
more
India Considering
Duty on Cheap Steel Imports, Minister Says - The Indian government is considering
imposing taxes on the import of steel after local manufacturers complained
cheaper overseas products are reducing earnings, a junior trade minister
said. -
more
Website is home
to heated debate - Debate about the Vale Inco strike isn't just playing out
at coffee shops and other community gathering places. The Sudbury Star's
website is serving as a hotbed of discussion about the issue. -
more
Stern Hu case based
on specific crime, Chinese say - The Chinese government has told Foreign
Minister Stephen Smith that jailed Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu's case involves
a specific criminal investigation and is not related to broader bilateral
trade, commercial or national security concerns. -
more
Chinese go hard on Hu coverage - They are calling it "spygate". So don't
for one moment think the Chinese media hasn't learned a trick or two from
the lurid tabloid excesses of the Western media. -
more
Out of step over failed price deal - Australia is having to rethink its dealings
with China following the bizarre jailing in Shanghai of an Australian businessman
and a flurry of undercover diplomatic requests for explanations from Canberra
to Beijing. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Saturday, July 18
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
El Nino threat blows commodity prices higher -
more
Excellent observation
from Na Liu with Scotia in this week's China Update - Many clients have asked
our opinion on the spy probe on Rio Tinto’s employees. We offer three
observations. First, we do believe that the case against Rio Tinto employees
must be backed by strong evidence. Local Chinese media reported that the
Rio Tinto employees obtained confidential minutes of the Chinese negotiation
team’s strategy meetings. We do not know whether this is true, but we
think it is highly unlikely that China would take such serious action against
Rio employees without strong evidence. The Chinese government knows that
if it really does not have evidence at this critical time, its image will
be damaged. In recent years, China has been very conscious in terms of its
image and has been improving its PR skills. It would not likely risk the
prospect of future foreign resource acquisitions with baseless allegations
against Rio. It should be noted that several executives from the Chinese
steel industry are also being investigated and/or detained. Second, in our
opinion, the negotiation strategy by Rio and other major suppliers is indeed
debatable in the context of Chinese culture. China imported 50% of world
sea-borne iron ore last year and 75% in the first few months of this year.
Without strong Chinese demand, Rio Tinto would likely still be struggling
with its debt. In fact, we believe it is fair to say that it was Chinese
demand that saved all the major miners in the world in this deep recession.
For iron ore, we think China does deserve a discount to other buyers given
its scale of imports. Rio Tinto and other suppliers cornered the Chinese
side by striking deals with Japanese and Korean buyers first and refusing
to offer even a symbolic discount (say, 0.5%) to the Chinese. It forced the
Chinese side, in particular the China Iron and Steel Association, to lose
face. By doing this, Rio lost its moral ground in the eyes of the Chinese
public and press. There is a Chinese saying that says “do not cross
the river and then destroy the bridge”. But we believe that is exactly
what Rio did in China’s eyes. And last, at the end of the day, business
goes on. China needs Australian ore and Rio and BHP need to sell their ore
to the Chinese market. That said, in our opinion, overseas suppliers should
learn two lessons from this drama: First, be aware of the means by which
market information is collected; and second, try to achieve a win-win solution
rather than to corner its business partners.
(source)
Steelworkers president
warns Vale Inco strike could be a long one - The international president
of the United Steelworkers told striking Vale Inco miners in Sudbury, Ont.,
today they should expect a long fight. -
more
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Debt Auction Demand Falls Short
of Goal for Third Time in Two Weeks // China First-Half Steel Production
Rises to a Record // Asian Stocks Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since May; Indonesia
Index Declines // European Stocks Rise for Fifth Day; Sandvik, Novartis Gain
as Accor Falls // Bank of America Earnings Drop as More Money Is Set Aside
for Credit Losses // Georgia, Alabama Join States With Unemployment Above
10% as Slump Deepens // Most Stocks in U.S. Drop as GE, Google Results Offset
Housing-Market Data
11:45 The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, but by less
than 1/5 of 1% at the moment. NYMEX crude is trading nearly 1-1/2% higher
and nearing $63/barrel. Gold is up 1/10th of 1% while silver is 3/4 of 1%
higher. Base metal ended mostly higher, while nickel squeezed out a flat
day. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.30/lb.
As we stated this morning, LME stored inventories of nickel grew overnight,
which is not good for future price increases, which in turn, will not help
the strike in Sudbury to come to a close any sooner. The U.S. Commerce Department
reported Friday that housing starts rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual
rate of 582,000, the highest figure November. Building permits also increased,
rising 8.7% to 563,000, the strongest reading since December. With the surplus
in available homes already out there, and the ones that yet to enter the
market due to delayed foreclosures, this has a good news/bad news aspect
to it. The American Chronicle, an Australian publication, reviewed the week
"The Australian sharemarket had a great week with buyers falling over themselves
to get into quality stocks in a surprise market bull run. It's been one of
the best weekly advances this year. Never mind if it doesn't last, investors
regained their confidence that the economic climate is turning, but by how
much is still the sixty four dollar question." Wall Street is flat at press
time.
We wish all of our readers a restful and safe weekend!
(Macquarie Research) Latest data from the International Nickel Study Group
confirm a slow and steady recovery in global demand for nickel. So far, as
in most commodities, China has led the way. However, there are more and more
reports of non-Chinese demand recovery, and we think that the second half
will be more a non-Chinese story for nickel than a Chinese story. ...
Our updated stainless steel production forecasts show that, while Q209 still
showed a massive YoY decline in world production of 22.3%, production was
actually up 16% QoQ. This rise was led by a 20% QoQ rise in China, but European
production also rose strongly (14%).
(South Africa) Falling commodity prices and scarce funding had prompted BSC
Resources to halt most of its project to focus on copper, nickel and coal
projects in the Eastern Cape, Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal, the junior mining
house said yesterday.
Roubini Statement on the U.S. Economic Outlook - “It has been widely
reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over 'this year'
and that I have 'improved' my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however
– my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed
previously. If anything my views were taken out of context. -
more
Understanding the Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Number -
more
(TMF) Nearly every major card company saw declining delinquency rates in
June. And since delinquencies are a precursor to defaults, declines are often
viewed as a sign that future charge-offs will start to subside.
Meltdown 101: What is CIT, and what if it fails? -
more
King Penguin Properties, LLC - During the latest quarter national unemployment
rates surpassed those of New York City for the first time in a decade. New
York City population grew by more than 53,000 residents for the latest 12-month
period, the largest increase of any city in the country.
What is Riskier The Stock Markets or Commodity Trading? -
more
Funds not main
driver of commodity prices - Barclays - The flows of fund money into
commodity market instruments this year have not been the main driver of prices
as those who would like stronger regulation believe, Barclays Capital said
in a note this week. "Fundamental factors have been far more important
at dictating the course of commodity price movements than investment flows
alone," Barclays said.-
more
STCL scrap metal
scam indicates ‘collusion’ - The Enforcement Directorate, which
is investigating the Rs. 1,250-crore scrap metal scam involving the public
sector trading company, the Spices Trading Corporation Ltd. (STCL), and two
Bangalore-based private trading firms, is focusing attention on violations
of the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA). -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.07/lb
lower, with other
metals mixed and quiet. The US Dollar is rebounding this morning, up nearly
6/10 of 1%, and while adding pressure to commodity trading, it has yet to
produce its normal negative effect. NYMEX crude futures are off 2/3
of 1%, and under $62/barrel. Gold is down 1/3 of 1% while silver is lower
by 1-1/3%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended higher, while European
markets are quiet. Futures show Wall Street may open up slightly lower, with
some traders taking profits before the weekend. LME stored inventories of
nickel gained overnight, after receiving a huge shipment into an Asian warehouse.
The Baltic Dry Index is slowing again, only up 41 to 3,542.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals ended mixed yesterday
in listless trading, except for aluminum, which shot up to key resistance
at $1700. Despite the mixed close, this week’s price performance has
been stellar, with good gains seen across the board. We are off to another
mixed session as of this writing, with copper, zinc, and nickel all off
slightly,... Out of China, a Bloomberg article we came across today says
that the World Bank has calculated that Chinese government spending is driving
a surprisingly large four- fifths of the current expansion. .... Nickel
is at $16,000, down $100; resistance is at $16,630, which marks a double-top
on the charts. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Chinese nickel production inched down 0.8% on the month to 17,419 tons after
a rise of 24.5% in May. However, the rise in demand has lagged behind output
growth, and there is also about 100,000 tons of metal estimated to be stored
in Chinese public and private warehouses, this according to state research
firm Antaike.
(Yieh) It was reported by National Statistics Bureau that China's crude steel
daily production in June was 1.65 million tons and the total output in June
reached to 49.42 million tons, hitting an all-time monthly peak. Bluescope
to restart furnace, increase output -
more
(MBiz) -Taiwan Yieh announced that despite a decline of US$1,000 / ton in
nickel price, their steel products' prices for late July stay unchanged.
Russian mining industry showing some signs of recovery -
more
Aurox in China Talks to Secure Funding for A$1 Billion Ore Mine -
more
ArcelorMittal Gets ‘Positive Outcome’ in Lender Talks -
more
(CD) Information released by the US Department of Treasury's official website
yesterday showed that by the end of May, China's holdings of US Treasury
bonds hit $801.5 billion. After slightly reducing US debt in April, China
added $38 billion to its holdings of the Treasuries, reaching a historically
new high.
Intl Ferro
Metals sees increase in demand - International Ferro Metals Ltd said ferrochrome
demand and spot prices have increased noticeably over the four weeks to July
17 as a result of the Chinese stimulus programme and low ferrochrome inventories.
-
more
Price Of Molybdenum
Oxide Has Risen By 56% In Last 3 Months = Focus Is Put On Time, When Major
Moly Mines Recover Their Production - The market price of molybdenum oxide
has been rising steeply. Molybdenum oxide had fallen its price to US$7.70
per lb. of Mo at the end April of 2009 and, then, bottomed out but suddenly
rebounded to a level of US$10 from the beginning of June. -
more
S.Korea's POSCO
buys Vietnam stainless steel firm - South Korean steelmaker POSCO on Friday
said it would buy a 90 percent stake in a Vietnamese stainless steel processing
company as it seeks to secure a stable customer base for its stainless steel
business. -
more
Rio Denies Bribery
Allegations in China Spying Claim - Rio Tinto Group, the world’s
third- largest mining company, denied allegations that four executives detained
this month bribed officials at the nation’s steelmakers.
- more
China Calls Concerns on Rio Tinto ‘Noise’ - China dismissed Australian
officials’ expressions of concern over the detentions of four employees
of the mining giant Rio Tinto as “noise” on Thursday, in one of
the government’s few public comments on the case. -
more
VALE INCO STRIKE:
Day 4 - It's up to company, union to deal: expert - An expert with
a conflict management firm can understand why Sudburians believe they have
a vested interest in United Steelworkers Local 6500's strike against Vale
Inco. -
more
AK Steel ordered to
keep Ashland steel mill operating - An independent arbitrator has ordered
AK Steel to abandon plans to shut its Ashland, Kentucky steel mill and lay
off about 750 workers, according to a statement issued late Wednesday by
the United Steelworkers union -
more
China to fight
EU over screws, bolts at WTO-sources - China has decided to challenge at
the World Trade Organisation anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made screws and
bolts imposed by the European Union in January, sources with knowledge of
the case said on Friday. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Thursday, July 16
Our
afternoon update's for the rest of the week will not be posted until late
in the evening or the following morning, as we will not have access to the
internet during the day. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Daily
Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) - China Rebound Props Up World Economy
as U.S. Struggles to Return to Growth // Japan, Australia Futures Rise on
Roubini Recession Comment; Nomura Gains // Rio Tinto, `BHP on Steroids,'
Shrugs Off China Spy Claims as Shares Gain // South Korea's Department-Store
Sales Climb 3.6%, Fourth Monthly Increase // Stocks in Europe Gain on JPMorgan
Earnings, China Growth; BNP, SocGen Rise // Stocks in U.S. Climb After Roubini
Reiterates Recession Will End This Year
Three month nickel ended the trading day at $7.30/lb
. US markets ended higher
after 'Doctor Doom' Nouriel Roubini tells audience in Chile that the light
at the end of the tunnel is not an oncoming train, but the end of the recession.
Barron;s reported "The road to recovery in the manufacturing sector is bumpy
and proving incremental at best. The Philadelphia Fed's business activity
index fell back in July to minus 7.5 from minus 2.2 in June. But new orders
improved, to minus 2.2 from minus 4.8 to point to narrowing rates of decline
in other readings in the months ahead."
Most base metals on the London Metal Exchange swung to positive territory
Thursday on a combination of better-than-expected U.S. economic data and
rising equity markets. The LME base metals initially opened lower Thursday
due to profit-taking from Wednesday's rises, but the U.S. government release
of encouraging new jobless claims and strong earnings from U.S.-based JP
Morgan Chase & Co. pushed base metal prices higher. London Metal Exchange
was trading; official cash ask prices were: copper 5231.50 tonne, tin $13,210,
lead $1600.50, zinc $1505.50, aluminium $1636 and nickel $15,850.
(source)
What the Future
Holds For Base Metals - The second quarterof the year has turned out to be
astonishing for base metals, but can they sustain their gains or will they
slowly diminish away? -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.01/lb
lower, but the chart
shows nickel has established no clear direction this morning. Other metals
are mixed, with trading light. The US Dollar has weakened against the Euro
this morning, and is now trading nearly 2/10th's of 1% lower. If this continues,
metals could find support. NYMEX crude futures are down nearly 1%, and just
under $61/barrel. Gold is down only slightly, with silver off 1/4 of 1%.
LME stored inventories of nickel have fallen by over 1000 tonnes in the last
two days alone and now sit under 108,000 tonnes. And the Baltic Dry Index
rose 177 points to 3,501 this morning. In overnight trading, Asian markets
ended higher, with European markets slightly higher this morning. US future
indicators have been jumping in and out of positive territory this morning,
and it appears Wall Street is suffering from a hangover after yesterday's
big party. The U.S. Labor Department just reported unemployment claims for
last week fell, both new and ongoing, and may provide the bulls the 'hair
of the dog' they need.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Copper surged to a one-month
high on Wednesday, pulling the other metals up along with it in impressive
fashion. In fact, with practically all the markets moved upwards in lockstep
yesterday, as traditional relationships fell into place. In this regard,
better-than-expected corporate earnings fueled a rally in US stocks, which
in turn ignited commodities. A late-day Federal Reserve survey also provided
encouragement, concluding that while the US economy remained weak this past
month, conditions were improving. Finally, the weaker dollar was the icing
on the cake, as the greenback slipped to around 1.41 against the Euro, insuring
that the commodity gains were sustained over the course of the session ...
Metals are down slightly as of this writing, (except for aluminum), as some
of yesterday’s heady gains are rolled back. Oil prices are also lower,
while the dollar is slightly stronger against the Euro, accounting for some
of the pullback in commodities. ... Despite the impressive spike in metal
prices over the course of the week, we would be wary about buying the current
dip, as the US macro backdrop leaves much to be desired. In this regard,
we got June industrial production numbers out yesterday showing a decline
of .4%, better than the -.6% expected. The smaller New York-based Empire
Manufacturing Index similarly showed a smaller-than-expected contraction.
However, the fact remains that output is still contracting, and in view of
such uninspiring readings, we cannot get that excited about the upside run
exhibited in metals. Even Chinese GDP numbers out earlier today seem to have
been taken in stride, and did not lead to another burst higher. ... We suspect
the current modest selling in metals could pick up steam over the course
of the day if US equities give back some of their gains. A likely factor
that will unnerve equity sentiment as the day progresses is the overnight
news that the US government has backed away from lending any money to CIT,
a key small-business lender. An executive at an industry group estimates
that 10,000 small businesses would be choked off from funds if they do not
find a suitable replacement the lender. In the meantime, the company will
presumably file for bankruptcy imminently, and we suspect is demise will
again remind investors that the US economy faces an uneven recovery path
... Nickel is at $15,900, down $40, and has had a spectacular run this week;
we see key resistance at $16,630, which marks a double-top on the charts."
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Alex Heath, RBC Capital Markets - "Whilst for many observers the current
surge in prices may appear unfounded and entirely speculative in nature,
for others there is the smell of opportunity in the air."
(Dow Jones) Risk aversion is fading fast with commodities benefiting as fears
of a "W"-shaped recovery recede, but market participants say the gains may
be overdone.
(MNP) Iron ore hopeful IMX Resources has reported its first resource at the
Ntaka Hill area of the Nachingwea nickel sulphide joint venture in Tanzania.
(AIP) Production began in France in the first half of 2009 compared to the
same period in 2008 decreased by 40% to 5.855 million tons. The decrease
is due to falling demand for steel products in key industries on the background
of the current crisis. That was reported by French Steel Federation.
(SG) According to the statistics from Eurofer, the crude steel output from
EU 27 countries totaled 10.541 million tons in May, up by 10.45 percent than
previous month and down by 44.16 percent compared to the same period of last
year. Germany was the top producer at 2.168 million tons; following were
Italy, Spain, France and England at 1.688 million tons, 1.161 million tons,
991,000 tons and 739,000 tons respectively.
(Reuters) China Molybdenum Co Ltd on Thursday said its first-half net profit
is expected to fall significantly, hit by lower prices for its products because
of the global financial crisis.
AK Steel’s Plan to Shut Down Kentucky Plant Blocked, Union Says -
more
Mechel Announces H1 2009 Operations Results -
more
Kalinganagar units seek raw material security -
more
China’s Economic Growth Accelerates to 7.9% on Loans -
more
(CNW) The latest results from TNS Canadian Facts' Consumer Confidence Index
show economic confidence holding steady in the mid-90 range for the third
straight month. The overall Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 93.4
which puts it right between June's 92.0 and May's 94.1.
Commodity Hedge Is About Finding Right Tilt: Jane Bryant Quinn -
more
China: Global Saviour Or New Bubble? - China's annual real GDP growth rate
peaked at 13% in 2007, hit 6.1% in the first quarter 2009 and has now bounced
back to 7.9% in the second quarter. -
more
Analyst View - Copper to lead complex, aluminium dim -
more
Investec favours investment in bulk commodities for second half of year -
more
POSCO mulls takeover
of Vietnamese steelmaker - POSCO, South Korea's leading steelmaker, said
Thursday that it is seeking to take over a Vietnamese steelmaker as part
of efforts to meet growing demand in the Southeast Asian region. "We are
considering acquiring Asia Stainless Corp., but nothing has been decided
yet," said a POSCO official. -
source
Nisshin Steel Surges
on Report Nippon Steel to Invest - (excerpt) Nisshin Steel will in turn acquire
a stake in a stainless steel subsidiary of Nippon Steel, Asahi also reported.
-
more
Mirabela Nickel
Limited advises that Vale subsidiary Inco Brasil Limitada has agreed to formally
terminate the Farm-in Agreement covering potential underground nickel sulphides
at the Company's Santa Rita and Palestina projects. -
more
Employees
Pinpin forcing the mine entrance - A new episode was played yesterday in
the conflict between the SMSP to a landowner. The riders, NMC employees and
subcontractors have decided to go to work and take the path of all conflicts,
despite the order of the Commercial Chamber of the Court of Appeal. - translated
here (French
here)
Mining contractors
feeling the pinch VALE INCO STRIKE: Day 3 - Sean Cartledge considers himself
lucky despite the fact he is without a job during the Steelworkers' strike
against Vale Inco Ltd. -
more
Anger, fear pushing more workers to strike despite recession, say experts
- The worst economic slowdown to hit the world since the Great Depression
doesn't seem to have deterred workers from taking their grievances to the
picket lines. -
more
China eyes Pakistan
steel sector - China Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC), which
already runs a copper mine in Pakistan's Balochistan province, is showing
renewed interest in expanding and modernizing Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM),
the country's only integrated steel-manufacturing plant, at a cost of US$2.2
billion -
more
Steel production
goes up by 3.4 percent - Production of finished steel went up by 3.4 percent
to 13.98 million tonnes during April-June 09 as compared to 13.53 million
tonnes during the same period last year. -
more
Global steel mills
crank up production - Global steel makers are raising output after slashing
it early this year, encouraged by rebounding prices and demand as the world
economy slowly recovers thanks to infrastructure-led stimulus plans. -
more
China steel assoc
says ore talks not over-Caijing - Annual iron ore price negotiations are
"definitely not over," a negotiator for the China Iron and Steel Association
told the Caijing financial news organisation, but acknowledged that some
mills had agreed to a 33 percent cut as reported earlier. -
more
China spy laws leave Rio with no wriggle room - The options for Australian
miner Rio Tinto, or indeed anyone, to help four employees detained in a Chinese
state secrets investigation are limited, lawyers say, as laws leave great
latitude to investigators and prosecutors. -
more
Reports: Rio Tinto steel analysts leave China after spying allegations -
Mining giant Rio Tinto Ltd. has pulled researchers who follow China's steel
industry out of the country after four employees were detained on spying
allegations during iron ore price talks, news reports said Thursday. -
more
China Warns Australia Not To Interfere In Rio Case - China Thursday hit back
at Australia for attempting to interfere with its investigation into the
alleged espionage case against four Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) employees, warning
that such actions would not be in Australia's interest. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Wednesday, July 15
Our
afternoon update's for the rest of the week will not be posted until late
in the evening or the following morning, as we will not have access to the
internet during the day. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Shirakawa Signals Bank of Japan May
End Credit Programs as Recession Eases // China's $2 Trillion Reserves Help
Sustain Obama Borrowing, Shore Up Dollar // China Accepts 33% Iron Ore Price
Cut, Annual Talks May Lapse, Umetal Says // Japan Should Provide Extra Stimulus
If Growth Fails to Pick Up, IMF Says // Global Confidence Declines as
Unemployment Surge Counters Fiscal Stimulus // U.K. Government to Demand
Cuts in Carbon Emissions for Industry, Consumers // European Stocks Rise
the Most in Three Weeks on Intel Outlook; ASML Climbs // CIT Says U.S. Bailout
Unlikely as Talks End, Studies Options With Advisers // U.S. Factory
Gauges Top Estimates in Signal Manufacturing Is Stabilizing // Dow
Average Jumps Most in Three Months on Intel Forecast, Factory Reports
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.23/lb, with all base metals
ending notably higher. Marketwatch reported today "U.S. industrial production
dropped 0.4% in June after a 1.2% decline in May. Production has now fallen
for eight straight months and 17 of the last 18 months. Capacity utilization
fell to a record low 68% in June from 68.2% in the previous month." .....
and .... "U.S. consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in June,
matching analysts' expectations with the largest gain since July 2008, as
gasoline prices jumped higher, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. However,
the core CPI -- which excludes often-volatile food and energy prices -- rose
a milder 0.2%, after seasonal adjustments. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch
had expected the core to rise 0.1%." ..... and ..... "Positive results from
a trio of high-profile market sector leaders -- Intel Corp., Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. and Johnson & Johnson -- had investors Wednesday taking an
optimistic view of the second-quarter earnings season." They also reported
these three stocks fell on the day, but the market as a whole? Well the Dow
had its best day in months, ending up over 3%, with the S & P just below
3%. Having been away from the news all day, and just reading it at face value,
we don't see any good reasons why the bull made such a charge today, but
then again, someday's the market just has a mind of its own.
(Interfax) Kazakhstan reduced crude steel output 20.5% year-on-year in
January-June 2009 to 1.878 million tons, the National Statistics Agency told
Interfax-Kazakhstan.
(AMM) No real recovery for steel likely until end of 2010, Moody's says
Low inventories favour copper, zinc in H2 -Investec -
more
Reasons Why China Will Continue To Gobble Up Natural Resources -
more
Freight TSI falls to lowest level in 12 years – again -
more
Base Metals
See Better Q2 - This round of earnings reports will likely show improvement,
but it's probably temporary. -
more
London Metal Exchange
mulls freight derivatives - The London Metal Exchange said on Wednesday it
was considering entry into the freight forward agreements (FFA) market, drawing
criticism from ship brokers -
more
Sudbury Video News
/ Persona 10 News / Day 2 of Vale-Inco Strike -
video
here
Canadian Perspective: Vale Inco, Steelworkers settle in for long strike in
Sudbury - The history of labour negotiations in Sudbury is long and adversarial.
-
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.17/lb
higher and showing
signs of potentially peaking, with all base metals solidly in the green this
morning. The US Dollar is trading lower against the Euro, by nearly a full
percent. NYMEX crude futures are up over 1-1/2% this morning, and nearing
$60.50/barrel. Gold is up 1-1/3% and silver is over 3% higher. In overnight
trading, Asian markets ended solidly stronger, with European markets following
suit. US futures show Wall Street should open higher on higher commodities
and news that Intel forecast sales that will beat analysts expectations.
News from China media that China has temporarily accepted Rio Tinto's 33%
decrease in iron ore prices. BHP reportedly wants a cool billion dollars
for its Ravensthorpe mine. The strike in Sudbury enters day three with no
talks between Vale/Inco and the union scheduled. Analysts are forecasting
the strike will have no direct impact on worldwide surplus inventories of
nickel unless the strike lasts into the 4th quarter, which traders are presumably
betting will happen. The Sudbury Star, an excellent source for information
out of Sudbury, reports the Google car was spotted in that town yesterday.
If it makes its way down Vale/Inco way, the strikers there could soon find
themselves on Google Earth street view. And we touched on this earlier this
week, but thought it deserved a second look, especially by the Australians
who have seen the Russians come in and buy some of their mines, only to shut
them down - "Russia's Kemerovo region has told ArcelorMittal, the world's
largest steel maker, to boost production at two local coalmines or give them
up."
(article) Maybe Australia has more on its mind with the
China-Rio ordeal, but nationalization of a mine is something we are used
to hearing from Chavez's Venezuela, not the former communist Russia. Since
the afternoon update will be delayed, your BDI number for the day is up 227
points to 3,324, the second day of a large rebound. Nickel inventories of
nickel stored in LME warehouses took another large hit overnight, and cancelled
warrants fell under 2%.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - No report received at press
time - this link from MF Global Europe usually posts the updated report when
it is available, although it appears to have missed yesterday's update
(here)
(Dow Jones) The global nickel market was in a 86,100 metric ton surplus between
January and May 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.
World nickel demand fell 18.6% on the year to 471,500 tons, WBMS data showed,
while refined production fell 2.6% to 557,600 tons and mine production fell
4.8% to 584,200 tons.
Anthony Rizzuto, investment bank Dahlman Rose - "We believe that strikes
such as these (Sudbury for one) will continue to be a supportive feature
of metals and mineral prices over the intermediate to long-term, as they
effectively remove supply from the market, and push the marginal cost of
production higher."
BMO Capital Market analyst Bart Melek - "Traders don't see an immediate shortage
given current demand expectations. However, if the strike continues into
Q4 when demand is expected to accelerate, there is a strong probability that
prices could move sharply higher."
(Reuters) "Global miner Rio Tinto is shipping iron ore to international customers
as scheduled, including China, a company spokesman said on Wednesday when
asked about a media report that trade was being disrupted. .... Earlier,
the Steel Business Briefing was cited by the Financial Times as saying both
Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton had stopped putting spot iron-ore shipments up
for bid after the detention of four of Rio Tinto's China staff."
(MBiz) Nisshin Steel is intended to improve Q3 production capacity rate to
80% around of Shunan stainless steel mill in western Japan. It is understood
that the average production capacity rate in Q1 is only 40%. .... The monthly
stainless production of Shunan steel mill was about 50,000 tons, thereinto,
austenitic and ferritic stainless steel production accounts for 50% respectively.
It is learned that the two kinds of stainless steel output will reach 20,000tons
correspondingly in July-September."
(JMB) Nippon Steel announced on Tuesday the firm restarts the operation of
no.1 blast furnace in Oita iron works on 2 August.
(MNP) Vale subsidiary Inco Brasil and Mirabela Nickel have formally terminated
a farm-in agreement covering two Mirabela projects in Brazil, after Inco
was inactive on the tenements for over two years
(Interfax) Jinchuan Group raises ex-works nickel price to $18147 per ton
(Reuters) ArcelorMittal , the world's largest steelmaker, said on Wednesday
it would restart a blast furnace in France, the third resumption announced
for its European plants this month.
(Reuters) Russia's Evraz Q2 steel output down 28 pct yr/yr -
more
Finn Nickel Initiates Voluntary Bankruptcy Proceedings -
more
(MBiz) EU plans to stop anti-dumping duties on China's steel and cast iron
pipe and the provisional anti-dumping tax rate, sustained for 6 months is
at 15% -25%.
Former Queensland minister Gordon Nuttall found guilty of corruption -
more
Glencore ponders stake sale to raise $1.5bn -
more
India - The BJP and Congress continued to join hands to disrupt proceedings
in the Assembly by persisting with their demand for a CBI probe into the
alleged manganese and iron ore mining scam. -
more
Commodities is the place to be, says Jim Rogers -
more
Behavior of Industrial Commodities Is for Real -
more
Balli Steel warns Russian steel market continuing to face challenging conditions
-
more
Nickel Interest
at Highest Since 2005 as Factories Boost Output - Nickel open interest, or
bets on movements in prices of the metal, climbed to the highest since at
least 2005 as factories that make stainless steel, the biggest use for nickel,
ramp up production. -
more
BHP Wants to
Sell Ravensthorpe for A$1 Billion, Review Says - BHP Billiton Ltd. wants
to sell its Ravensthorpe nickel mine in Western Australia for as much as
A$1 billion ($794 million), the Australian Financial Review reported, without
saying where it got the information. -
more
Base Metals
Not Yet In Recovery - Chinese stockpiling actions, infrastructure-heavy stimulus
plans and curtailed production have restored some glint to base metals, but
the sector's sustained recovery is dependent on major economies returning
to solid ground. So don't expect that to happen anytime soon. -
more
Strike's effects
likely won't be felt until autumn - The impact of the strike at Vale Inco
will likely not be felt until the end of summer when it comes to nickel prices,
say market analysts. -
more
Steelworkers digging in for long term - Roland Thibeault has walked a picket
line four times and he's only worked at Vale Inco for 18 months. -
more
Day 1: Mood on the picket line ebbs and flows - From buoyant to sombre,
the mood at each picket line set up outside Vale Inco's Sudbury operations
varied depending on where you went. -
more
Fire scorches site
of N.L. nickel processor - A wildfire burned more than a square kilometre
of brush and forest near Long Harbour, N.L., on Monday, including an area
where Vale Inco is preparing to build a nickel processing plant. -
more
Chinese Mills Accept
Temporary Iron Ore Price Cut, Umetal Says - Major Chinese steelmakers have
accepted a temporary 33 percent iron ore price cut from Rio Tinto Group,
and may allow annual contract talks to lapse, Umetal Research Institute said.
-
more
Australian PM says world watching China spy case - Australian Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd warned China on Wednesday it had significant economic interests
at stake in detaining an Australian mining executive on spying charges and
the world was watching how it handled the case. -
more
'Bribery is widespread' in Rio case - Executives from all 16 Chinese steel
mills participating in iron ore price talks this year have been bribed by
Rio Tinto employees, an industry insider claimed Tuesday, amid reports that
the government is considering invalidating 20 iron ore import licenses to
regulate the chaotic ore import business. -
more
China accuses Rio Tinto of mass bribery - Rio Tinto bribed all 16 Chinese
steel mills involved in negotiations over the price of iron ore, China's
state media has claimed. -
more
Mining Company Inquiry Puts Focus on a Black Market in China’s Steel
Industry - Long before four employees of the Anglo-Australian mining giant
Rio Tinto were detained here last week on suspicion of stealing state secrets,
people working in China’s steel industry were complaining about bribery,
deceit and a system turned rotten. -
more
Directive
rules the use of nickel in stainless steel in toys is safe - The Nickel
Institute1, the body that represents 90 per cent of the world’s nickel
producers, has welcomed the revised EU Toys Safety Directive2 that further
restricts the use of some chemicals and metals in all toys manufactured and
imported into Europe. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Singapore Raises GDP Forecast as Nation
Emerges From Its Deepest Recession // China Reported to Expand Rio Tinto
Iron Ore Probe to Baosteel, China Mills // Asian Stocks Climb on Earnings
Optimism, Singapore Growth; Komatsu Rises // German Investor Confidence
Unexpectedly Falls, Misses Economist Estimates // British Airways Says Job,
Pay Cuts Vital, Convertible-Bond Sale Possible // Rojo Says Spanish Provisions
Won't Stop Banks From Doing `Crazy Things' // European Stocks Rise for Second
Day; Deutsche Bank, Barclays Shares Gain // Goldman Sachs Profit Beats Estimates
on Record Trading, Stock Underwriting // Producer Prices Climbed
More-Than-Forecast 1.8% in June as Gasoline Surged // Geithner Says Global
Economy Will Probably Suffer Setbacks During Recovery // Gasoline Costs Pushed
Up U.S. Retail Sales, Wholesale Prices Last Month // U.S. Stocks Fluctuate
as Dell Leads Tech Slump, Commodity Producers Climb
The Euro continues to trade lower against the US Dollar, but only by 15/100th's
of 1%. NYMEX crude bounced earlier, but has settled back below $60/barrel,
down 1/3 of 1%. Gold remains higher by 4/10 of 1% , while silver is higher
by 1/2 of 1%. Base metals ended higher, with nickel taking the lead. Indicator
charts show nickel shot up early, then slowed its pace of growth after US
markets opened. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.06/lb. Technically, nickel
looks good on the charts, having broken thru initial resistance, and trading
above its 20 day moving average (Sucden's day old chart
here). Fundamentally, time will tell if the Sudbury strike
offers anymore than a short term boost to the market. Nickel inventories
stored in LME warehouses took a hit overnight, and rest barely over the 109,000
tonne level. Cancelled warrants slipped below 2-1/2%. The Baltic Dry Index
not only stopped its slide today, it made a big bounce, up 122 points to
3,097. The Commerce Department reported business inventories decreased for
their 9th straight month, down 1.0% in May. The Labor Department reported
U.S. producer prices rose 1.8% in June, more than economists' expected
and climbing by the most since November 2007. In reference to the much watched
retail numbers this morning, Paul Ashworth from Capital Economics noted "The
0.6% month-to-month increase in retail sales in June is not half as good
as it looks because it was entirely due to the combination of a 2.3% rebound
in motor vehicle sales and a 5.0% price-related surge in sales at gasoline
stations. The former is a classic dead cat bounce. The latter is actually
bad news for spending in real terms. Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics
was equally negative, stating "Core sales are not falling anything like as
fast as in the months after Lehman, but there is absolutely nothing here
that could be called a green shoot." Two charts from Calculated Risk on today's
retail sales releases
(graph 1)
(graph 2). Wall Street
has yet to decide which way it will turn on today;s news, after yesterday's
big gain. At the moment, US equity markets are about as flat as a pancake.
(Dow Jones) India July MCX nickel futures jump 4.2% at INR754.50/kg after
strike by workers in Canada's nickel mines.
(MK) The Bank of Korea said on July 14 that import prices in June increased
5.1 percent from the previous month, posting the biggest rise in 13 months
since May last year when marked a 10.7 percent rise.
(Bloomberg) "BHP Billiton Ltd. has delayed development of the A$4 billion
($3.1 billion) Caval Ridge coal mine in Queensland state, the Australian
newspaper reported, citing documents submitted to the Federal government.
Production from the project will begin in 2013 instead of 2011, the newspaper
said..."
CSX saw shipments of bulk materials and other merchandise drop 22% in the
second quarter of 2009 compared to 2008.
As of yesterday, the World Health Organization reports 429 victims worldwide
have died from contraction of the A(H1N1) virus, and that over 94,500 people
are known to have been infected. Hundreds of thousands more are believed
to have had the virus, but were never diagnosed.
(Business Line) Citigroup Inc raised its 2010 forecast for hot-rolled coil
steel by 34 per cent to $540 a tonne. The bank also increased its 2011 estimate
by 50 per cent to $544 a tonne in a report.
Commodity Trading & Trend Following Mechanical Systems -
more
Banks Made ‘Bloody Fortune’ at Taxpayers Expense, Spitzer Says -
more
Ship Breaking Has Turned To Be an Emerging Business in Recession -
more
Fewer Capesize Ships Await Chinese Berths, SSY Says -
more
U.S. Budget Gap Exceeds $1 Trillion for Fiscal Year -
more
Jinchuan to add
60,000 mt/year copper-nickel alloy plant end-2009 - China's Jinchuan Group
expects to complete a new 60,000 mt/year copper-nickel alloy pipe, rod and
extrusion plant by end-2009, the Gansu province-based producer said Tuesday.
-
more
POSCO is set
to speed up the development of overseas resources - South Korea's leading
steelmaker, said Tuesday that it will jointly develop overseas minerals with
the state-run Korea Resources Corp. as part of efforts to secure a stable
supply of raw materials. The two companies will explore overseas deposits
of coal, iron ore, nickel, and other minerals, POSCO said. -
more
Kevin Rudd toughens
China stance after police seize Stern Hu's computer files - Kevin Rudd has
chided China for using its political might to get its own way in business
dealings as it emerged that Chinese police had seized sensitive files from
the Rio Tinto computer of imprisoned Australian mining executive Stern Hu.
-
more
Secrets of Chinese steel mills found in Rio's computers - Detailed information
of Chinese steel mills was found in computers of Rio Tinto's Shanghai office,
local media reported Monday. -
more
Rio detentions complicate China iron ore talks - Spying accusations against
four Rio Tinto Ltd. employees have complicated contentious price talks between
China and iron ore suppliers that without an agreement could disrupt the
global industry. -
more
More arrests in China steel state secrets case - The reported detention of
several more steel executives in China has strengthened the view that Beijing
is undertaking a wide investigation of bribery and theft of state secrets
in the iron ore and steel sector. -
more
BHP Unaware Of Any China Probe Into Its Iron - Foreign companies should abide
by China's laws and regulations, a Chinese government spokesman said Tuesday
even as Australia continued to press for details about the arrest of its
citizen, an employee of Rio Tinto PLC, for the alleged theft of state secrets.
-
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.35/lb
higher, with all base
metals higher this morning on higher equity market trading. The US Dollar
is trading lower against the Euro, by less than 1/10 of 1% but falling. NYMEX
crude futures are up over 2% and over $61/barrel. Gold is up 1/3 of 1% and
silver nearly 1/2 of 1%. In overnight markets, Asian markets rebounded after
Wall Street's solid gains yesterday. European markets are higher this morning,
and US futures show Wall Street will continue yesterday's bull run early.
MarketWatch advises the Commerce Department reported this morning, that retail
sales rose 0.6% in June, better than expected. Excluding auto sales, sales
rose 0.3%, much lower than expected. Excluding gas and auto sales, retail
sales fell 0.2%, its 4th monthly decline. They also reported U.S. June producer
price index rose 1.8%. Base metals appear to be getting a big push this morning
because of the upward turn in equity markets, while nickel is being supported
by the strike in Sudbury, news of a potential pending lay-off in Indonesia,
and increased stainless steel production in Japan.
Recession and Recovery: the U.S. Economic Outlook -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals finished on a mixed
note yesterday, as continued wariness about the global macro outlook dominated
sentiment. A sluggish performance in oil did not help matters much either.
Also failing to impress, was as a surging US equity market, where an upgrade
on Goldman Sachs by long-time bank bear Meredith Whitney triggered a substantial
rally. At least during yesterday’s session, it seemed that commodities
were more concerned with the still very difficult demand outlook as opposed
to the goings-on in the US equity markets. We are off to a much stronger
session on Tuesday, as some good macro numbers out of Europe and a steady
session in Shanghai are giving LME metals a lift. In addition, yesterday's
US stock market rally has sparked good follow-through buying in other equity
markets. Continued gains in stocks cannot be ignored for long, and should
eventually spill over into commodities, as they seem to be doing today. ...
Nickel is at $15,250, up $520, but more importantly, the size of its recent
move higher has successfully taken out the short-term down channel in place;
(See our chart in our attachment ). We now could move somewhat higher from
here, with the backdrop of the Inco strike providing support." (read Ed
Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Reuters) Russia’s Kemerovo region has notified ArcelorMittal (MT) that
it will seize two of the world’s largest steel maker’s mines if
production levels do not increase, the Siberian region’s government
said in a statement, Reuters reported. “If your team is not able to
stabilize production at these facilities, then we propose that you hand them
over without compensation.”
(Bloomberg) Tenaris SA plans to shut down its main Italian plant for 13 weeks
from next month after a 70 percent drop in production this year, daily MF
reported, citing no one.
(JMB) Japanese stainless steel makers' output is slightly recovering. Nippon
Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel (NSSC), Japanese largest stainless maker,
is increasing the operation rate of cold rolled stainless sheet to about
70% from 50% in last month against the peak level. Yakin Kawasaki, a subsidiary
of Nippon Yakin Kogyo, is increasing the operation rate to above 60%. Kinuura
works of Nippon Metal Industry is reaching 70%. Stainless steel export is
increasing to Asia due to anticipation of a rise of stainless goods by rising
nickel price.
(Yieh) China exported 1.43 million tons of steel products in June, up by
80,000 tons compared with May and down by 72.6 percent compared with the
same period last year. In the same month, China’s steel imports totaled
1.63 million tons, down by 20,000 tons compared with last month and up by
29.4 percent compared with the same period last year.
RathGibson Inc., a global manufacturer of stainless steel and high-alloy
tubing products formerly based in Janesville, has announced that the company
and its domestic affiliates have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.
(JMB) NSSC Raises Stainless Sheet and Plate by 15,000 Yen/t in July
(Xinhua) China's power consumption rose 3.79 percent year-on-year to 305.22
billion kWh in June, the China Securities News reported, citing sources from
the China Electricity Council (CEC).
McCain to hold up Obama nominees over copper mine -
more
Steel Tube Maker RathGibson Seeks Chapter 11 Protection -
more
Nippon Steel to
restart mill as demand picks up - Nippon Steel Corp, the world's
second-biggest steelmaker, said on Tuesday it would restart operations at
one of two blast furnaces that have been shut, as the worst of an industry
slump appears over. -
more
Inco Indonesia
May Lay Off 500 Workers to Cut Costs, Globe Says - PT International Nickel
Indonesia, the nation’s biggest producer of the metal, may lay off 500
workers to cut costs, the Jakarta Globe reported, citing an unidentified
person. -
more
Indian Producers
Request To Raise Duty On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys = Asking To Raise The Duty
From 5% At Present To 10% - While a recession of the world economy emerged
from September of 2008 has caused the protective movements at each country,
Indian Ferro-Alloys Producers Association (IFAPA) has recently requested
the Government of India to raise the duty on imports of ferro-alloys from
5% at present to 10% but ferro-nickel, which is not produced in India, has
excluded from the objective materials. -
more
Sudbury strike
may drag on - With global nickel markets awash with supply, it could be a
long and lean summer for Vale Inco and its striking Canadian workers. -
more
Sudbury walkout could hurt strikers - As thousands of miners hit the picket
lines at Vale Inco's nickel operations in Sudbury, Ont., Monday demanding
a better labour contract, analysts said the strike might work in the company's
favour, at least in the near term. -
more
Vale Inco's Port Colborne nickel plant workforce to strike Monday - Some
120 workers at Vale Inco's nickel refinery in Port Colborne, Ontario, are
set to go on strike Monday after voting Sunday to reject an offer for a new
three-year pay deal, the union said Sunday. -
more
China Widens Rio
Iron Ore Probe; Australia Pushes for Talks - China widened a probe into the
alleged theft of state secrets by Rio Tinto Group’s employees to
steelmakers, two Chinese newspapers reported, as Australia pressed for more
information about the investigation. -
more
Reports: China probes 5 steelmakers in Rio case - Executives of five Chinese
steelmakers are being questioned in a widening espionage probe of four detained
Rio Tinto Ltd. employees, news reports said Tuesday, as Australia pressed
for details of the case. -
more
Iron ore import licenses may be canceled for 20 companies - The Chinese
government may cancel more than 20 companies’iron ore import licenses
if it finds that they have conducted illegal speculative purchasing, sources
reported Tuesday. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In
the week ending July 11, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,213,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 50.9 percent. Production
was 2,120,000 tons in the week ending July 11, 2008, while the capability
utilization then was 88.8 percent. The current week production represents
a 42.8 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending July 11, 2009 is up 3.9 percent from the previous week
ending July 4, 2009 when production was 1,168,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 49.0 percent.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Posco Raises Steel Output Target, Signaling
Rebound After 71% Profit Drop // Korean Won, Stocks Decline on Report North's
Kim Jong Il Is Terminally Ill // China Central Bank to Strengthen Monetary
Management as `Challenges' Grow // Asian Stocks Fall on Growth, Political
Concerns; Cathay Financial Declines // Emerging Markets Most Expensive Since
'07 When Shares Subsequently Plunged // British Government May Sell Royal
Bank of Scotland, Lloyds `Over Years' // Stocks in Europe Rise; Porsche,
Friends Provident, Venture Production Gain // Bernanke May Explain Exit Strategy
From Fed's Biggest Monetary Expansion // Dollar, Yen Favorites Over Real,
Aussie as Economy Forces Risk Reversal // Obama's Stimulus Money Starts Flowing
to Projects as Jobless Await Results // U.S. Stocks Advance, Led by Banks,
After Goldman Sachs Upgraded by Whitney
The US Dollar continues to trade lower against the Euro, now 2/10 of 1%.
NYMEX crude is down nearly 1-1/2% near $59/barrel. Gold is up over 1/3 of
1%, while silver is higher by nearly a full percent. Base metals ended the
day mixed, with nickel and tin the winners. Indicator charts show nickel
spent the entire session on a creep higher, and just off session highs. Dow
Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$6.68/lb. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME warehouses fell slightly overnight, while cancelled warrants
remains above 2-1/2%. The Baltic Dry Index could potentially see its slide
halt tomorrow, only down 10 points to 2,975 today. In news about nickel supply
and demand, the strike at Sudbury will bear watching. If the strike is short,
the supply implications could be minimal. If it lasts awhile, and China stainless
steel production continues to increase, we could see LME inventories start
to fall, thus driving the price higher, which in turn would make it more
profitable for Vale to settle. In our opinion, Vale has the edge in this
situation - at least for now. In the same token, China had more to gain by
deciding to arrest Rio's negotiation team on bribery charges than looking
the other way, even though we would speculate nothing different was done
this year, than has in the past. Bloomberg reports this morning that "U.S.
stocks capped a fourth straight week of declines on July 10, matching the
longest losing streak in a year, as consumer sentiment dropped more than
estimated and oil’s steepest retreat since January dragged down energy
shares. Investors this week will be looking at reports on retail sales and
factory production to gauge the strength of the economy after a $787 billion
stimulus bill passed in February." We posted a comment this morning that
we found over the weekend that we thinks bears another look. It was in a
Time magazine article "Why There Should Be More Oil Speculation - Not Less".
This was written in response to increased talk about more regulatory measures
might be taken in the commodity trading sector. While the author makes his
point, we noticed something interesting. We quote "Another common misconception
is that speculators only buy and hold assets. More accurately, speculators
try to benefit from fluctuations in prices. In other words, speculators
cannot profit from sustained high prices, only from changing prices. So,
yes, the recent volatility in the oil market can certainly be attributed
to speculation, but speculation cannot support an extended price rally.
Major players like banks, on the other hand, are more than just pure
speculators, having the resources to drive prices up." This is something
we have been claiming on this site for a very long time, and its nice to
see someone from the "it's 100% supply and demand that drives the world markets"
crowd finally admitting it's partially speculation. The remark about traders
not making money unless the price moves up and down may be common sense,
but something we bring up repeatedly to explain the unexplainable daily movements
nickel sometimes takes.
(China media) According to the news on July 10, the state-owned research
institutions - Antaike one analyst said Friday, China has increased during
the first half of this year 88,000 tons of commercial nickel inventories,
imports during this period is a record of the main factors. Fan Runze analysts
said the stock is expected to total more than 100,000 tons, or about one-third
of the annual consumption.
(Bloomberg) BHP Billiton will begin a study for the potential sale of its
Ravensthorpe nickel operations in Australia after closing the $2.2 billion
(R18.1bn) project in January. "BHP Billiton will commence formal evaluation
of divestment as a potential future option," it said on Friday. The Ravensthorpe
mine in Western Australia was closed after nickel prices fell. It sold the
Yabulu nickel refinery in Queensland earlier this month.
(AP) South Korea's leading steelmaker, said Monday that its second-quarter
profit tumbled 71 per cent from a year earlier due to weak demand and falling
steel prices.
(LG) China Electricity Council reported that China's power consumption rose
3.79%YoY to 305.22 billion kilowatt hours in June. The country's power output
reached 300.92 billion kilowatt hours in June up by 4.7% from a year earlier.
Kazakh ENRC mulls African Minerals bid, convertible -
more
Crisis, opportunity and the new world order -
more
Stock Index Trading, 1/3rd Bearish Position -
more
Note by 'teenage scribbler' causes sensation -
more
Trichet: Why the ECB Isn’t Acting Like the Fed -
more
Union says shrinking
nickel stock should force quick end to Vale Inco strike - The United Steelworkers
union says it hopes a strike at Vale Inco's nickel-mining operations in the
northern Ontario city of Sudbury will be over quickly. -
more
Steel talks on despite
arrest - Strained price negotiations between China's steel mills and iron
ore producers are continuing, a Chinese official said on Monday, despite
Rio Tinto's lead negotiator being arrested on spy charges. -
more
Forrest says he feels for both sides in China row - Mining magnate Andrew
"Twiggy" Forrest says China would not have taken the decision lightly to
arrest Hu Stern and three Chinese employees of Rio for allegedly stealing
state secrets and that he feels for both sides in the imbroglio. -
more
Rio arrests no coincidence - The latest round of news on the detention of
four Rio executives in China continues to suggest that Beijing's motivation
is far from simple, and not confined to perceived slights, including Rio's
decision to call off an alliance with state-owned Chinalco, or the Australian
Government's attitude to China. -
more
World Steel Production
to Slip by 12% This Year - MEPS is forecasting total world steel manufacturing
in 2009 at 1165 million tonnes. This equates to a decrease of 12 percent
on the previous year’s result. -
more
Of interest
to fastener distributors - Fastenal reported today that daily sales in June
were down 22.5%, after falling 20.79% in May, and 21% in April, reflecting
the decline in demand for fasteners is not getting much better. In their
report to shareholders, they stated "As we saw in the previous two quarters,
the weakened economy continues to have a substantial impact on our business.
These impacts continue to negatively affect our sales, particularly related
to our industrial production business (business where we supply products
that become part of the finished goods produced by others) and, more recently,
our non-residential construction business. To place this in perspective -
our manufacturing customers (historically approximately 45% to 50% of sales)
contracted approximately 28% in the second quarter versus the prior year.
This contraction is less severe in the maintenance portion of our manufacturing
sales (business where we supply products that maintain the facility or the
equipment of our customers engaged in manufacturing), but more severe in
the production business. Our non-residential construction business (historically
20% to 25% of sales) contracted approximately 23% versus the prior year.
The remaining business (sales to other resellers, government business, other
industries, and in-store retail sales) is producing better results, but
unfortunately, doesn't have enough impact to offset the manufacturing and
construction impact. On a sequential basis, our manufacturing daily average
sales improved in both May and June (versus the previous month). This was
the first sequential improvement since September 2008. However, this improvement
was offset by continued weakening in our non-residential construction business
........ As we indicated earlier in this release, our goal is to increase
the sales of our average store to approximately $125,000 per month."
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.12/lb
higher, with the rest
of the base metals mixed and mostly higher. The US Dollar is trading lower
against the Euro, by a little over 1/4 of 1%. NYMEX crude futures are unchanged,
while gold is down 1/10 of 1% and silver is off by nearly 1%. In overnight
trading, Asian markets were down sharply, while European markets are slightly
higher this morning. US futures show an uncertain opening, although
they are leaning slightly higher at the moment. Not much has changed in the
China- Rio bribery case, although China is now refusing to allow Australian
authorities meet with the imprisoned Hu, and the political rhetoric is picking
up. Vale Sudbury miners are officially on strike, with Voisey's Bay set to
strike on the 1st.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices were off
again on Friday, weighed down by lingering concerns about the economy, a
stronger dollar, and sagging oil and US equity markets. A dip in US consumer
confidence readings to its lowest level since March was the only US macro
item released on Friday, and did not help matters much either. Tin fared
worst among the various metals, falling more than 5% for a third day and
tumbling to a ten-week low. The complex never really recovered after complaints
were made about its spread structure last week, and although the LME has
not taken any steps in this regard, players are obviously moving to the sidelines
in anticipation of something happening. ... We are off to a very quiet
start this morning, but given the tight trading ranges noted, odds are high
that sellers will return to the fold. ... Nickel is at $14,500, up
$10, and recovering somewhat over the course of the day after prices sank
to $14,120 at one point earlier. Our chart shows that nickel has broken its
short-term upchannel, and is now struggling to hold support above $14,300."
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Societe Generale - "Our contacts in China continue to paint a picture of
a slight slowing in real underlying metals demand in June, and an expectation
that July will also be slow."
(AM) An Indian trader reported to Asian Metal that at present Indian high
carbon ferrochrome market keeps increasing, as they received offers of about
INR55,000/t (USD1,134/t ~USD 0.89/lb) ex works for high carbon ferrochrome
60%, Si 4%max recently, up from INR52,000/t (USD1,072/t) ex works last week.
According to the source, the supply in the spot market is a little bit tight
now, as many steel mills are purchasing high carbon ferrochrome actively.
(Bloomberg) "The world’s biggest ferrochrome producer may offer a cash
payment of as much as 5 billion pounds to convince investors in Anglo American
Plc to consider its merger proposal, the Observer said, citing unidentified
people in the City of London. The shares fell 12.8 pence, or 2.1 percent,
to 597 pence."
(Bloomberg) "Outokumpu Oyj, the world’s fourth- biggest stainless-steel
maker, was raised to “overweight” from “neutral” at JPMorgan
Chase & Co., which cited an improving outlook for the industry."
(CM) China's crude steel output was estimated to reach 45.39 million tons
in June, which could be translated into a daily output of 1.51 million tons,
hitting a peak this year, according to the latest report by the China Iron
and Steel Association (CISA).
(Bloomberg) "Cash prices for iron ore delivered to China, the world’s
biggest buyer of iron ore, jumped to a nine-month high amid rising imports
by the Asian nation. Ore for immediate delivery rose 5.5 percent to $87 a
metric ton in the week ended July 10..."
(SX) China's total power consumption in the first quarter of this year fell
2.43 percent from the year earlier to 1641.1 billion kWh, data released from
China Electricity Council. The power consumption has headed to rebound since
May of this year, and finally presented a positive growth in June. China's
power consumption in Jun was 305.2 billion kWh, up 3.79 percent year on year.
"Another common misconception is that speculators only buy and hold assets.
More accurately, speculators try to benefit from fluctuations in prices.
In other words, speculators cannot profit from sustained high prices, only
from changing prices. So, yes, the recent volatility in the oil market can
certainly be attributed to speculation, but speculation cannot support an
extended price rally. Major players like banks, on the other hand, are more
than just pure speculators, having the resources to drive prices up." -
source
Treasuries Record Demand Damps Concern Supply to Grow -
more
Picket lines go
up at Vale Inco operations - About 20 members of United Steelworkers Local
6500 lit fire barrels, hoisted picket signs and waved Canadian flags just
before midnight Sunday, minutes before their contract with Vale Inco expired
and they began striking against their employer. -
more
What's in a secret?
Rio case frightens Chinese analysts - China's detention of steel executives
suspected of leaking state secrets could reduce the flow of market information
in China as analysts and researchers self-censor to avoid trouble. -
more
China shuts door on access to Rio Tinto's Stern Hu - China has rebuffed the
Rudd government and may force Australian officials to wait a further month
for a second visit to detained Rio Tinto iron ore executive Stern Hu. -
more
JOGMEC / Japan Holds
On 16th July Tender To Purchase Molybdenum Ore = To Purchase 300 Tons Of
Moly In Crude Oxide For National Stockpiles - JOGMEC (Japan Oil, Gas and
Metals National Corporation), which is an independent administration agency
in Japan, is scheduled to hold an open tender on the 16th of July to purchase
300 tons of Mo in molybdenum ore (crude oxide) for national stockpiles of
metals. -
more
High Costs Keep
Minara Out Of Favour - In terms of production, nickel miner Minara (MRE)
largely met market expectations, its quarterly output of 7,800 tonnes either
in-line or only slightly below broker expectations on the nickel side and
a little better than UBS had factored in on the cobalt side. -
more
Project hunter Moly may stick with Ridge options - Back in March, Moly Mines
placed its $1.1 billion molybdenum plans on the backburner, put $127 million
on the table and went shopping -
more
Baosteel ups steel
prices, may signal iron ore deal - China's Baosteel will raise prices of
its major steel products by 9 to 13 percent next month, more than expected,
a move that may suggest mills have effectively given up their battle for
lower iron ore prices. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Saturday and Sunday, July 11 &
12
Local 6500
rejects Vale Inco final offer by 85 per cent - Members of United
Steelworkers Local 6500 will almost certainly set up picket lines at 12:01
a.m. Monday after 85 per cent of 2,600 members who cast ballots in ratification
votes rejected Vale Inco's final contract offer. -
more
Union workers at Vale Inco's Sudbury mine to strike - Union workers
at Vale Inco's Sudbury nickel mine in Canada rejected the company's final
contract offer and will go on strike at midnight Sunday, the United Steelworkers
union said on Saturday. -
more
Commodities
are still luring the adventurous - Natural resources funds have certainly
lived up to their reputation for volatility. After an extreme roller-coaster
ride in 2008, when commodity prices skyrocketed over the summer, only to
plummet in the fall, those prices climbed steadily in the first half of this
year. -
more
Dow Jones - U.S. nickel exports rose 126.6% in May from the previous month,
but was down 34.1% from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported
Friday.
Dow Jones - U.S. nickel imports fell 47.9% in May from last month, and was
down 46.4% from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
Fall in imports slows, points toward recovery -
more
When Will The Recovery Begin? Never. - The so-called "green shoots" of recovery
are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate
about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. -
more
WSJ - CIT Group Inc., a lender to almost a million mostly small and midsize
businesses across the country, is preparing for a possible bankruptcy filing
after so far failing to win a government guarantee to help it borrow, said
people familiar with the matter.
Bank of Wyoming Seized; 53rd U.S. Failure This Year -
more
Nouriel Roubini - "The United States is in the 20th month of a recession
that has been by far the longest and most severe of the post-war period.
While comparisons with the Great Depression are frequent and appropriate
(especially if we look at the pace of contraction in industrial production),
the aggressiveness of policy measures has significantly reduced the probability
of a near-depression ...Improvements in real economic activity are present
and visible in the reduction of the pace of job losses, in the improvement
in indicators of manufacturing activity, in the stabilization of housing
starts and in the improvement of financial conditions. However, RGE Monitor
does not yet see signs of a strong and sustainable recovery."
Government contacts
China over Rio spy case, urges haste - Australia's government is urging China
to deal swiftly with the case of detained Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu, having
made it first contact with Chinese authorities. -
more
Detained Rio Tinto executive in good health: Australian FM - Australian Foreign
Minister Stephen Smith said here Saturday that Australian Rio Tinto executive
Stern Hu detained in China and accused of spying and stealing state secrets
appears to be in good health. -
more
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Exports Sink for Eighth Month
as Economic Growth Relies on Stimulus // China Fails to Attract Enough
Buyers in Debt Sales for Second Time in Week // China Accuses Rio's Hu of
Bribing Mill Officials, Australia's Smith Says // Yen Rises Versus Euro as
Evidence of Stalled Recovery Boosts Refuge Demand // Asian Stocks Post Second
Weekly Decline; Sapporo, Mining Companies Advance // U.K. Producer Prices
Drop Most Since 2001 as Recession Defeats Inflation // Bank of England May
Be at `Turning Point' on Emergency Bond-Purchase Plan // Stocks in Europe
Decline; Stoxx 600 Heads for Fourth Straight Weekly Drop // U.S. Economy
on `Cusp of Stabilization' as Growth Forecasts Are Increased // Trade Deficit
in U.S. Unexpectedly Narrowed in May as Exports Increased // New GM Emerges
From Remains of Bankrupt Automaker as Asset Sale Completed // U.S. Stocks
Fall as Confidence Report Adds to Concern Recovery Faltering
The US Dollar is trading off session highs, but continues to trade higher
against the Euro, by a little over 1/2 of 1%. NYMEX crude is down nearly
2% and at $59.30/barrel. Gold is down slightly, while silver is off by over
1-1/2%. Base metals traded in London all ended the session lower. Indicator
charts show nickel started falling at the open, attempted a comeback in the
late afternoon, which failed by the close. Dow Jones reports three month
nickel ended the day and week at $6.57/lb. Nickel inventories
grew overnight by a small amount, while the Baltic Dry Index slumped another
33 points, and fell under the 3,000 level for the first time since
May 26th. The University of Michigan and Reuters reported that U.S. consumer
sentiment reversed course and fell to 64.6 from 70.8 last month, which took
analysts and traders off guard, and made it difficult for anyone to find
green shoots in the report. Considering both Vale and the USW are forecasting
a strike by the weekend, we will probably come back to work to such news
Monday morning. We wanted to write a long piece on the Rio China fiasco but
decided there was plenty already in the press about it, so we will let it
rest for now. There are plenty of links below for those who want to read
more including media allegations being made against BHP. Our final statement
for the week on the matter would be "don't take it out on the tadpoles, when
you can't reel in the big fish".
Have a safe and relaxing weekend. Next week looks like it could be another
interesting one.
(Dow Jones) The London Metal Exchange is to go "full steam ahead" on its
planned minor metals futures contracts from February, the exchange's chief
executive said Friday. ... The LME has identified cobalt and molybdenum
as the first two contracts for minor metals, having conducted feasibility
into their development since 2008.
Transparency International reported in 2006 that while Australia was listed
in the top 5 countries "least" prepared to pay a bribe to do business in
a foreign country, China ranked second to India in countries "most" prepared
to pay a bribe to do business abroad.
Based on 2008 production figures of 85,300 tonnes, a strike at Vale-Inco's
Sudbury operation should cost the world approximately1,640 tonnes a week
of nickel. Based on 2008 production figures of 74,219 tonnes, a strike at
Voisey's Bay nickel mine will cost the world approximately 1,427 tonnes of
nickel ore a week, although shipments from this mine are seasonal.
Global Banking Economist Warned of Coming Crisis -
more (6 parts)
Sudbury workers
vote on Vale Inco contract offer; union says strike 'imminent - The union
representing employees at Vale Inco's nickel operations in the northern Ontario
city of Sudbury says there is little doubt members will reject a final contract
offer by the company and a strike is "imminent." -
more
AME expects higher
copper, nickel prices in 2009 – Independent analysis firm AME Mineral
Economics has upgraded its copper price outlook for 2009 and 2010, despite
its forecast that overall copper demand was likely to decline by 7%. -
more
China exec probed
for leaking price strategy to Rio - A Chinese steel executive detained along
with four Rio Tinto employees is being investigated for leaking China's "bottom
line" on iron ore prices, a source with knowledge of the probe said on Friday.
-
more
China cites 'conclusive evidence' in Rio Tinto case - China has "conclusive
evidence" that four employees of the world's second-largest mining company
were stealing Chinese state secrets, the country's foreign ministry said.
-
more
Rio crisis rooted in marketing strategy: John Kemp - China's detention of
four Rio Tinto staff marks the final phase in the long downward spiral of
relations with Rio and BHP Billiton, Australia's two major exporters of iron
ore. -
more
Chinese accuse Rio Tinto 'spy' of bribe - China has accused senior Australian
mining executive Stern Hu of industrial espionage by bribing Chinese steel
making officials during sensitive commercial talks. -
more
Warning on doing business with China - Companies doing business with China
are being warned the country presents uncertainties that shouldn't be taken
lightly, as there's little separation between politics and business. -
more
BHP Billiton accused of bribery in China steel prices: the invitation to
communicate the feelings of female singers - "We should pay attention to
( 'with a ghost'), efforts should be big points." The industry said that
if the extension can leverage out of events leads to more "with a ghost",
then the loose-sand iron ore negotiations are expected to be improved. -
Chinese article translated version
here original Chinese
here
LME H1 volumes
rise 1.8 pct to above 55 mln lots - The London Metal Exchange said on Friday
the total number of lots traded on the exchange in the first half of this
year rose 1.8 percent to more than 55.18 million lots from the same period
a year ago. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.14/lb
lower, with all London
traded base metals lower this morning. The US Dollar is stronger against
the Euro, by nearly a full percent already today, which is hurting commodity
shares. NYMEX crude futures are down 1-3/4% and well under $60/barrel. Gold
is off 1/2 of 1% and silver is down 2%. In overnight trading, Asian markets
ended flat. This morning, European markets are trading lower and US futures
imply a sharply lower opening for Wall Street. Chinese exports reportedly
fell again in June for the 8th straight month, down 21.4% compared to a negative
26.4% fall in May. Antaike is reporting that they believe China has stockpiled
at least 100,000 tonnes of nickel over the last few months, and with LME
warehouses holding over 109,000, that is a lot of stockpiled nickel. The
rumors are back that BHP may be selling Ravensthorpe after receiving "numerous"
enquiries. Vale is said to be expecting a "short" strike in Sudbury, while
accusations of bribery have now surfaced in the China versus Rio Tinto spy
caper.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals closed sharply higher
yesterday, (except for nickel and tin), as a weaker dollar, along with steadier
oil and US equity markets, coaxed some sidelined money back in to the long
side. One bit of macro news out of the US helped the advance as well, and
that was the weekly initial claims data, which came in with a drop of 52,000
to 565,000 claimants for the week, better than the consensus estimate of
603,000. However, while that number grabbed positive market attention, it
is worth noting that the continuing claims component in the data spiked by
159,000 to 6.883 million, a record high for the series and a stark reminder
that finding jobs remains a big problem ... Despite the sizable moves, we
have been seeing in metals this week, it is worth noting that on a net basis,
prices have hardly changed much. .. Metals are off to a weaker start as of
this writing, but we do not think much will happen today, as there is very
little in terms of data apart from US confidence readings out later. ..
Nickel is at $14,630, down $270, and along with tin, looking the weakest
in the group today. Support at $15,200, was taken out yesterday on a two-day
closing basis. Our next downside target is $14,300, with $13,750 below that."
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(CS) A long-awaited regulation on steelmakers’ merger and acquisition
is expected to be unveiled soon by the Ministry of Industry and Information
Technology in a bid to further encourage consolidation among steelmakers
from across the country. China will try to shape up several super large steel
producers with a capacity of more than 50 million tons each such as Baosteel,
Anben Group and Wisco by 2011, according to the adjustment and revitalization
program on the steel industry. Data shows there are more than 500 crude steel
producers in China with the top five mills accounting for just 28.5 percent
of the country’s total steel output, well below the 60 to 70 percent
of market shares dominated by the top four producers in the advances nations
such as the United States, the EU and Japan.
(Bloomberg) BHP Billiton Ltd. is considering selling its mothballed Ravensthorpe
nickel mine as part of the review of operations there, Perth Now cited the
company as saying. BHP has received ``numerous'' expressions of interest
in the mine and will test the market for bidders, the Web site cited the
company as saying.
(Dow Jones) Russia exported in January-May 91,200 metric tons of nickel,
a fall of 12.6% on the year, the federal customs service reported Friday.
(Bloomberg) Minara Resources Ltd. reported total nickel output from its Murrin
Murrin operation of 7,842 tons in the June quarter and said it remains on
track to meet its full- year forecast.
(Yieh) According to the trend of demand and supply, Korean domestic cold
rolled stainless steel sales continued to go down in May, keeping a consecutive
drop from March. According to the statistics from Korean Iron & Steel
Association (KISA), the domestic stainless steel sales reached 18,380 tons
in May, down by 9.3 percent on April.
Economic Policy Institute Rob Scott - "..the U.S. manufacturing sector
has been hard hit by the last two recessions, and lost 5.3 million jobs between
January 2000 and May 2009, a decline of 31%."
(BS) Graynic Metals Ltd has secured access to an extensive portfolio of advanced
nickel laterite exploration projects located in Guatemala, Central America,
completing the joint venture agreement with the private Canadian company
Nichromet Extraction Inc.
AK Steel said today that it will increase spot market prices for its carbon
steel products, effective with all new orders for August and September shipments.
AAR - The Association American Railroads today reported that freight traffic
on U.S. railroads continues to parallel the nation’s overall economic
condition, as traffic remained down year over year for the week ended July
4, 2009. U.S railroads reported originating 241,240 cars, down 15.6 percent
compared with the same week in 2008. Total volume on U.S. railroads for the
week ending July 4 was estimated at 25.7 billion ton-miles, off 14.3 percent
from the same week last year.
(RITA) The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.6 percent in
May from its April level, declining for the third consecutive month to the
lowest level in 12 years, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau
of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1). The May decline
was the smallest of the three consecutive decreases.
CBO - The federal budget deficit was $1.1 trillion for the first nine months
of fiscal year 2009, CBO estimates in today’s Monthly Budget Review,
more than $800 billion greater than the deficit recorded through June 2008.
Outlays are 21 percent higher than they were in the first three quarters
of 2008, but revenues have fallen by 18 percent.
Japanese Export
Offers Of Ni-Based Stainless CR Sheets At $2,700 C&F -Japan's stainless
steel producers are contemplating offering a price increase of US$100/ton
to US$2,700/ton C&F for nickel-based CR sheets in their export negotiations
to start this week for August-September shipments to Asian destinations such
as China. -
more
China seen holding
above 100,000 T nickel stocks -Antaike - China is estimated to have added
88,000 tonnes of nickel in stocks in the first half of this year, reducing
orders for spot imports as surplus supplies weighed on the domestic market,
an analyst at Antaike, a state-owned research group, said on Friday. -
more
China's June imports, exports continue falling - China's imports and exports
continued falling in June from a year earlier, but the pace of decline eased,
the General Administration of Customs announced Friday. -
more
MP says Vale Inco
CEO expects short strike - The president and chief executive officer of Vale
Inco, Tito Martins, says there will be a strike at the company's Ontario
operations, but it won't last long. -
more
BHP starts
Ravensthorpe sale process - BHP Billiton has today confirmed that it will
start the formal evaluation of divestment as a potential future option for
the Ravensthorpe nickel mine. -
more
China accuses Rio's
exec of bribery during iron ore talks - China has accused Australian
Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu of bribing staff from Chinese steel companies
during iron ore negotiations this year, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said.
-
more
Arrest of Rio Tinto China staff is a reality check - Letters Blog -
more
How will Rio case impact foreign business in China? - The detentions of the
four employees of global miner Rio Tinto, including its top iron ore salesman
in China, has raised some major questions about the implications of this
affair for doing business in China and the iron ore trade. -
more
Rally in raw materials
prices not sustainable: EIU - The prices of most industrial raw materials,
including oil, have rallied strongly since the beginning of 2009, and
particularly in the second quarter of the year. However, the Economist
Intelligence Unit believes that the rally will fizzle out as hopes of an
early return to strong economic growth fade. -
more
Base Metals Prices at Risk from Chinese Import Slowdowns - Although industrial
metals posted strong gains during the second quarter of this year, Deutsche
Bank strategists warned base metals are at risk from the slowdown in China's
"seemingly insatiable appetite for imports is diminishing." -
more
Xstrata's plan
for Anglo merger is dead - Xstrata's proposed £40 billion ($82.4bn)
merger with Anglo American has effectively collapsed after Anglo's shareholders
rejected the approach. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Car Sales Jump 48% on Government
Support, Extending Lead Over U.S. // Alcoa Says China, U.S. Economic-Stimulus
Plans May Help Revive Cash Flow // Most Asian Stocks Fall; Honda Motor Falls
on Yen, Cnooc Advances on Oil // Bank of England Maintains Bond Purchase
Plan at $202 Billion; Rate at 0.5% // Leaders of G-8, G-5 Seek to Avoid
`Competitive Devaluations' of Currencies // European Stocks Rebound From
Five-Day Decline; Rio Tinto, Daimler Advance // Initial Unemployment Claims
Fell More Than Estimated to 565,000 Last Week //Treasuries Fall as Government
Prepares to Sell $11 Billion of 30-Year Debt // Home Loans Backed by U.S.
Government Jump to 36% of Mortgage Applications
The US Dollar continues to trade lower against the Euro, down 1.1% but off
session lows. NYMEX crude traders are in a bearish mood even with a slumping
Dollar, and have only managed a 2/3 of 1% gain so far today. Gold is up 1%,
while silver is 8/10 of 1% higher. Base metals ended mostly higher today,
thanks primarily to the Dollar's tumble. Only tin took a beating. Indicator
charts show nickel started the day in the green, before tumbling well below
support in early afternoon trading. Then as the Euro got a boost of energy,
nickel shrugged off the bears and retraced its path back up. Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at
$6.73/lb, but it also shows
in after market trading, the price actually rose over yesterday's close.
Nickel stored in LME warehouses rose overnight, and sit over the 109,500
tonne level. Cancelled warrants jumped to over 2% yesterday, and remained
stalled there today. The Baltic Dry Index slumped again, down 89 points to
a 6 week low of 3,018. The Commerce Department reported wholesale inventories
for May decreased 0.8%, less than analysts expected. Wholesale inventories
for April were revised slightly higher to reflect a 1.3% decrease. Inventories
are down 7.6% for the year, and the inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.29.
Business inventories will be reported next week and watched closely. Vale
Inco announced 54 more lay-off's in Sudbury, on the eve of a union contract
vote there. While we made light of the Rio-China supposed spy fiasco this
morning with our movie titles, the matter is potentially damaging to future
trade negotiations between China and its trading partners. We have a hunch
this whole espionage claim has something to do with an article we linked
to a few weeks back. Here it is again. "Shanxi steel mills forge ore deals,
says report
(link)" This move infuriated the Chinese government and
was seen as an attempt to undermine the CISA negotiating on behalf of all
Chinese steelmakers. Rio Tinto may not have been the lone culprit in this
agreement, according to the media report, but considering the recent Chinalco
snub and the Chinese reaction, it might explain why they got targeted in
this investigation. This is, of course, nothing more than personal conjecture
and should be taken as nothing more. It is our hope that this matter is resolved
quickly, and that those concerned are home with their families in a few days.
We wish our readers in the Eastern Hemisphere a safe and relaxing weekend.
Reports
Commodities Daily - pdf here
Federal Reserve - Does Speculation Affect Spot Price Levels? The Case of
Metals with and without Futures Markets -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
(Reuters) U.S. Steel's Serbian unit is to shed up to 250 administrative jobs
as demand for its products has plummeted amidst the global economic downturn,
the local company's spokesman said on Thursday.
(SSY) There are currently 71 Capesizes waiting to berth at China’s iron
ore discharge ports, according to data from local sources received today.
This marks a decline from the 77 Capes which were queueing at the weekend
and represents a drop of 17 from the peak two and a half weeks ago.
Tax authorities have accused Japan Steel Works Ltd. of deliberately concealing
580 million yen in income, including money disguised as aid to a struggling
Hokkaido waste disposal affiliate, sources said. -
more
Baltic index hits fresh 6-week low, demand soft -
more
RMB 1.5 trillion in new Chinese lending — can we turn this thing off?
-
more
Vale Inco lays
off 140 worldwide, 54 in Sudbury - Vale Inco announced today it is laying
off 140 management employees worldwide — 54 of them in Sudbury —
as part of the restructuring the company has been undergoing for the last
10 months.-
more
Japan Q3 ferrochrome
price raised to 97 cents - The term price for ferrochrome to Japan for
July-September has been raised by 26 percent from the second quarter of this
year, an official at Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel Corp said
on Thursday, its first increase in a year. -
more
China Rio arrests
pit country vs company: Alexander Smith - Country or company -- where does
your loyalty lie? For Beijing, there is simply no question. If you are Chinese
-- or a foreign passport holder of Chinese origin -- you work for China first,
second and third. -
more
China to let Australia see Rio Tinto manager - China agreed to let Australia's
diplomats meet Friday with a detained Australian employee of miner Rio Tinto
Ltd. after the government said it had proof he and three co-workers stole
state secrets. -
more
Australian Rio Tinto executive held in China - The iron ore chief of Shougang
Corp has been arrested as part of a crackdown on raw materials trading in
China, Bloomberg News reported, quoting the 21st Century Business Herald.
-
more
Shanghai Daily - Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang said the actions against
Stern Hu, general manager of Rio's China iron ore operations, and his three
colleagues, are based on competent evidence held by authorities. Chinese-born
Hu is an Australian passport holder. Qin wouldn't elaborate on the state
secrets but said they have hurt China's economic security. "This case shouldn't
be politicized and used to harm the cooperation between China and Australia,"
Qin told a regular press briefing in Beijing. Hu, and other three employees,
all Chinese nationals identified by domestic media as Liu Caikui, Wang Yong
and Ge Minqiang, were detained by Shanghai State Security Bureau on Sunday.
New wonder
material, one-atom thick, has scientists abuzz - Imagine a carbon sheet that's
only one atom thick but is stronger than diamond and conducts electricity
100 times faster than the silicon in computer chips. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.03/lb
higher and off session
highs, with tin the only loser at the moment. Considering base metals are
higher this morning, one could safely assume the Dollar is lower against
the Euro, which it is, by about 3/4 of 1%. NYMEX crude is getting a Dollar
nudge, up 1-3/4% to over $61.00/barrel. Gold is up 1/2 of 1% while silver
is flat. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended mixed on news China’s
passenger-vehicle sales rose 48% in June. European markets are trading higher,
with US futures showing Wall Street should open higher, after Alcoa posted
a smaller-than-estimated loss for the second quarter. The union at Vale/Inco's
Voisey's Bay mine, currently on furlough, announced they will strike August
1st, and Vale/Inco union members left a briefing last evening in Sudbury
threatening a strike there. The report that China had agreed to an iron
ore contract with the Big Three were apparently in error, thanks to an over
zealous newspaper in China, but China did confirm that they are holding 4
members of the Rio negotiating team, and a senior executive from a Chinese
steel producer, on espionage charges. Fears of a potential trade problem
between Australia and China were heightened after a Chinese buyer cancelled
a coal shipment from Australia, and the Aussie Dollar suffered its biggest
one day drop in 2-1/2 months. Bloomberg reports "The market was already jittery
over the whole Rio thing, the arrests and everything, and the coal headline
just caught the Aussie at exactly the wrong time," said Sean Callow, a currency
strategist at Westpac. "There was a rush of knee-jerk selling, which tripped
stop-loss sales, and down she went." Back in the States, the US Labor Department
reported first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell last week
to their lowest level since January.
Stay tuned to this site for made up news on Rio Tinto iron ore chief executive
Stern Hu's unknown movie career including past hits, "The Spy Who Dissed
Me", "Iron Ore's Are Forever", "In Her Dishonorable Woman's Secret Service",
and of course his non-Academy nominated role in "Never Say Spot Market Again".
Mr Hu is currently out of the media spotlight, doing research for his upcoming
feature "From China With Love".
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals settled sharply lower
yesterday, with tin and nickel hit particularly hard, with each falling by
about 5%. ... Worries about the economic outlook prompted a sell-off in the
oil markets as well, with crude plunging to $60 at one point. The stronger
dollar also contributed to the weakness, as did the latest CFTC policy
initiatives. Although these are still in a formulative stage, they are squarely
aimed at reducing the influence of hedge fund activity and overall
“speculation”. ... We are seeing an impressive recovery this morning
in metals, as a weaker dollar and an oversold bounce in oil markets (after
six days of declines), is lifting the group. ... Nickel is at $14,930,
down $20, and the only metal that is down today. Support is around $15,200,
which lies along the short-term upchannel, taken out yesterday. Another close
below this level later today will warrant a downward revision in our trading
range." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(SSY) There are currently 71 Capesizes waiting to berth at China’s iron
ore discharge ports, according to data from local sources received today.
This marks a decline from the 77 Capes which were queueing at the weekend
and represents a drop of 17 from the peak two and a half weeks ago.
Xstrata - In response to a strengthening in demand for ferrochrome, the
Xstrata-Merafe Chrome Venture has increased capacity utilisation for 2009
from 35% to 60%. For this purpose, several furnaces at the Venture’s
five ferrochrome operations have been re-commissioned.
(Yieh) According to Taiwan Steel & Iron Industries Association (TISA)
the stainless steel bar consumption is likely to increase by an average of
0.6 percent within 5 years.
(MNP) Independence Group has intersected high-grade nickel while drilling
its newly-discovered Moran nickel deposit, part of its flagship Long nickel
operations.
(India) No case for hike in import duty on steel products, says Virbhadra
Singh -
more
(BNA) Luxembourg-based steel giant ArcelorMittal has confirmed that the
construction of a US$600mn steel mill in Mexico has been postponed but not
suspended, ArcelorMittal representative Ricardo Guzmán said in an
email.
Granite City steel workers happy to be back on the job -
more
Asia Steel-China prices dip on subdued buying, output growth -
more
(US) Steel-scrap prices lower than forecast -
more
UAE steel imports decline 75% on lower demand -
more
Analysis-Real winners of iron ore talks? Banks, not miners -
more
Vale's Voisey's
Bay workers reject contract offer - Employees at nickel miner Vale Inco Ltd.'s
Labrador operations have almost unanimously rejected a contract offer by
the company and will strike beginning Aug. 1, according to the United
Steelworkers union. -
more
Union steels itself for strike - A strike against Vale Inco is all
but certain according to members of United Steelworkers Local 6500 who emerged
angry, disgusted and resigned to the inevitable from two information meetings
Wednesday at Garson Arena -
more
Japan Imported 7,600
Tons Of Stainless Steel Products In May / 09 With Decline From That In April
= Decreased By 16% Compared To That In April, The Imports From South Korea
And Taiwan Had Decreases - Japan Iron and Steel Federation compiled the data
on imports of stainless steel products into Japan in May of 2009 on the basis
of the statistics released by the Ministry of Finance, and the contents were
as per the table shown below. -
more
Japan's pure moly demand to rise on higher CIGS cell production - Japanese
pure molybdenum powder demand will receive a boost from increased production
of copper-indium-gallium-selenium photovoltaic solar cells, or CIGS cells,
industrial sources said Wednesday. -
more
ThyssenKrupp says
no change to plans for Calvert steel mill despite announcement - Local
ThyssenKrupp stainless officials said this afternoon that ThyssenKrupp AG
is not canceling or further delaying its plans for a stainless steel melt
shop at the company's complex in Calvert -
more
China Ore Price
Talks Are Still Continuing, Hebei Steel Says - Hebei Iron & Steel Group,
China’s second-biggest mill, denied a China Business News report that
the nation’s steelmakers agreed to a 33 percent cut in contract iron
ore prices. -
more
Rio employees 'held for espionage' - Four employees of global mining giant
Rio Tinto in Shanghai have been detained, apparently on suspicion of espionage
and stealing state secrets. -
more
China Has Evidence Rio Staff Stole State Secrets - In its first official
response to an unfolding case involving Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) employees, China
Thursday said that Stern Hu, an Australian national, is being detained for
stealing state secrets for a foreign country. -
more
China says Rio Tinto staff hurt interests - China said on Thursday detained
staff from Australian miner Rio Tinto had harmed China's economic interests
in a case that has rattled currency markets and raised questions about
China-Australia relations. -
more
China says it has evidence against Hu - Beijing says it has evidence to back
its claims that Australian Stern Hu and three Rio Tinto co-workers damaged
China's economy and harmed its security. -
more
Metals industry
may be regaining its lustre - Finnish metals companies are facing an
unprecedented slowdown, but some signs of recovery are already on the horizon.-
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Detains Rio Executive Hu on Suspicion
of Espionage, Australia Says // Yen Rises to Six-Week High Against Euro as
Recession Spurs Safety Demand // Yuan Deposes Dollar on China's Border in
Sign of Future for Global Trade // Asian Stocks Fall for Sixth Day on Growth
Concern; Treasuries, Yen Gain // Darling to Give Regulators More Power Over
U.K. Banks, Limit Executive Pay // U.K. Home Prices Unexpectedly Fall 0.5%
as Joblessness Rises, Halifax Says // Teva, Servier Face EU Antitrust
Investigation Over Delays in Generic Drugs // G-8 Leaders Disagree Over Economic
Stimulus, Leave `Exit Strategies' Open // Europe Stocks Drop, Led by Holcim,
Banesto; MSCI World Falls for Fifth Day // IMF Predicts Stronger 2010
Global Rebound After 2009 Economic Contraction //
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, now by 1/2 of 1%.
NYMEX crude is getting whacked, down nearly 4% and about to slip under
$60/barrel. Gold is down 1-3/4% and silver is off over 2%. And base metals
fared little better. Metals traded on the London Metal Exchange all ended
much lower as the trading session couldn't end fast enough for the bulls.
Indicator charts once again look like a photo of a mountain, although this
one was taken from the peak looking down a ski slope. Dow Jones reports three
month nickel closed under $7/lb for the first time this month, at
$6.78/lb. LME stored inventories
of nickel reflected on change for the third time this month, and the Baltic
Dry Index continues to slump, down 109 points. Commodities took a hit today,
and even some positive news from the IMF made no difference. The Dollar's
strength gave commodities initial inertia, but the degree of the dive reflected
more gravity than just a change in the currency value. It appears that nickel
fell thru support levels today, and much of the decline may have been technically
inspired. As of the last 15 minutes, Rio Tinto is denying reports that it
has reached a settlement with China over iron ore pricing for the next 6
to 12 months, although considering four of their negotiators are locked up
in some Chinese jail on espionage charges, word may not have reached headquarters
yet of any 'behind bars' agreement. People in jail will agree to just
about anything to get out, and this could prove an effective tactic in
international business negotiations. Of course we jest, but it will be curious
to see in what country they hold the negotiations next time. Pretty sad when
negotiations over the price of a rock start bringing up images of the tension
between North and South Korea. In other news, Vale can't afford to
pay their union in Canada like they have been paid in the past. Apparently
payroll was a section of the books someone overlooked when they bought the
mine a few years back. Then again, nickel was selling in the double digits
back then. The truth is, Vale answers to stockholders. Stockholders want
profits ... period. They want the biggest piece of the pie they can get as
a return on their cash investment. Miners in turn want as big a piece of
the pie as they can get, a return on their sweat. In the middle is the company,
who wants to appear compassionate to their employees', but tough money managers
to their shareholders. When times are good, everyone can get a piece of the
bigger pie and be content. When the pie shrinks, the fight is on to see who
will have to swallow the smaller piece. Humble pie anyone?
(Reuters) Iron ore contract negotiations with China are still under way,
mining group Rio Tinto said on Wednesday following a report in China about
a settlement. "We've announced with Japan and other countries, but not with
China, we haven't confirmed anything there," London spokesman Nick Cobban
said. When asked if negotiations with China were still under way, he replied:
"Yes, that's my understanding."
Simon Hunt - (reference commodity price manipulation) "Now it would appear
that the foxes are back again, but this time it may well be the huntsmen
(governments and central banks) who will catch their foxes and take speculation,
or, at least some of it, out of the market. We will see over the summer!"
(CK) Hebei Iron and Steel Group Co Ltd produced 3.15 million tons of crude
steel in May, up 14.94% from a month earlier, while the crude steel output
of Baosteel Group, the parent of China's largest steel maker, Baoshan Iron
and Steel Co, stood at 3.13 million tons, according to statistics released
by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
(Deutsche Bank) Evidence of the increasing popularity of commodities can
be seen via the flow of funds into commodity Exchange Traded Funds and Exchange
Traded Notes. In fact assets under management of Powershares commodity ETF/ETNs
products registered in the US has risen to a new all time high, surpassing
the peak from 12 months ago when commodity prices were significantly higher.
.. We believe the debate surrounding the role of speculators and their impact
on commodity prices is therefore likely to intensify, particularly if the
rise in commodity prices continues and the dangers this could pose to the
economic recovery."
(Reuters) South African Mineral Resources Minister Susan Shabangu told Reuters
on Wednesday the country would not nationalise mines despite calls from the
ruling party's allies.
Mining milestones: China's growing investment in Australia -
more
Copper and Nickel
to Correct says Macquarie Research - Speculators lost their heads in the
first half of the year when copper and nickel imports into China went through
the roof. -
more
Unaware Of Evidence
To Support China Allegations - Rio Tinto Ltd. is unaware of any evidence
that would support allegations by China of espionage against an employee,
a spokeswoman for the miner said Wednesday -
more
China holds Rio exec as spy; iron ore deal in doubt - Chinese authorities
are detaining Rio Tinto Ltd's top iron ore negotiator on suspicion of espionage
and stealing state secrets, Australia said on Wednesday, threatening to strain
already fraying ties. -
more
Beijing accuses Rio of spying as Australia is shocked at arrest of mining
executives - Australia and China are on a diplomatic collision course after
a senior Australian mining executive was arrested in Shanghai by secret police
on charges of espionage and theft of state secrets. -
more
European Nickel
cancels off-take agreement with BHP - European Nickel said Wednesday it will
be released from all its obligation under the off-take agreement inked with
BHP Billiton in relation to the Caldag project in Turkey, announced in June
2006. -
more
SLN: no
unemployment - On the line has always been supported by Philippe Gomes, the
proposed use of partial unemployment in the SLN was yesterday rejected by
the government. - translated version
here(original French
here)
Vale Inco says
pensions and bonuses remain major issues in contract talks - The issues of
pension benefits and bonuses remain major sticking points between nickel
miner Vale Inco Ltd. and the union representing thousands of its Ontario
workers, a spokesman for the Brazilian-owned company said Tuesday. -
more
Steelworkers vow to protect contract - More than 3,000 production and maintenance
workers with United Steelworkers Local 6500 will decide this week if an altered
pension plan, a smaller nickel bonus and restrictions on how often they can
apply for new jobs are reason enough to strike. -
more
Vale Inco tactics troubling, union says - The president of United Steelworkers
Local 6500 and a retired former local president are accusing Vale Inco Ltd.
of bad-faith bargaining in contract talks that broke off Monday. -
more
Munali financing
deal near - Barclay's Bank Plc is soon expected to conclude talks with Jinchuan
Group Limited of China for the possible financing of Albidon’s Munali
Nickel Mine Project in Mazabuka. -
more
Chinese fastener
companies take measures to seek for development - "There were 10% to 15%
fasteners exporting to EU market before. To avoid the high anti-dumpling
duties, some Chinese companies are considering setting up plants in the third
countries, and then exporting to EU. " -
more
Update
- A spokesman for Rio Tinto is denying reports from China that the two have
agreed to any iron ore price contract.
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.09/lb
lower with all base
metals lower but quiet. The US Dollar is trading stronger against the Euro
this morning, up nearly 1/4 of 1%. NYMEX crude futures are down nearly a
percent and under $62.50/barrel. Gold is down nearly 1% and silver is off
nearly 1-1/4%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower with only
Australia and New Zealand pulling off a gain. European markets are lower
this morning, and US futures show Wall Street has yet to decide what mood
it will trade in today. Lot of metals news today, least of which is the Chinese
agreeing to an iron ore contract, albeit a 6 month one only. China also has
arrested one of Rio Tinto's negotiators for espionage, a rather bizarre case.
Wayne Fraser, the USW lead negotiator, is threatening a strike at Vale, which
as we show below, has been par for the course over history. The comments
under the Sudbury story below show the deep divide among the union membership
over the contract offer by Vale. On the other hand, Vale's CEO says current
union costs are unsustainable, which will not impress the union, or the Canadian
government. And back in the States, ThyssenKrupp is considering backing
off its plans to build stainless steel plants in the US, unwelcome news for
Alabama if true. And in South Africa, Merafe announced it is producing more
ferrochrome on more demand.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices staged a
stunning reversal yesterday, giving up earlier gains, and closing lower,
although off their worst levels of the day. The complex simply could not
withstand the battering US equities and oil prices were taking, coupled with
the bearish impact of the stronger dollar, which despite its own structural
problems, is ironically becoming a regular safe-haven in times of market
turmoil. ... We are off to a mixed start as we start the US trading session,
with copper the lone metal that was higher earlier in the day, but which
has now thrown its lot with the rest of the group and is down slightly. Energy
prices are lower, while the dollar is steady, trading just above 1.39 against
the Euro, and likely a further source of pressure on metals over the balance
of the day. US stocks are called to open unchanged. .. Nickel is at $15,500,
down $150, and like lead, also staging a significant reversal from yesterday's
highs. We see support around $15,200, which lies along the short-term upchannel."
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) "The industry is already oversupplied, and with more production
coming online, nickel prices will certainly come under pressure (in the near
future)," said Xu Aidong, chief nickel analyst with Beijing Antaike, a
state-owned metals consultancy.
Howe Street - "One of the features of lengthy post-bubble contractions is
the bewilderment about so much hardship in a world of plenty. By plenty is
meant lots of supply and little money with which to consume. It has puzzled
the establishment for hundreds of years – and seems likely to continue
to do so."
(Deutsche Bank) "For starters, the global nickel market surplus, which has
been evident since March 2008, is falling rapidly as a result of the 18-month
campaign from producers to cut output in response to the collapse in global
demand. Furthermore, after six quarters of negative demand growth, we think
the global stainless steel market has adequately destocked and is primed
to enter a restocking period, in our view. We believe the producer response
to the demand shock has been adequate and the global nickel market surplus
is rapidly declining...Nevertheless throughout the rest of this quarter and
into the summer, we expect nickel prices will ease in concert with the other
industrial metals."
(ABN) Copper and zinc miner Kagara will add nickel to its base metals production
portfolio with its Lounge Lizard project set to produce first nickel within
the next couple of months.
(Xinhua) China's railway transportation has seen better performance in June,
said an official with the Ministry of Railways. Statistics show the railway
cargo transport volume, which dropped 4.6 percent during January to May,
approached in June the level for the same period last year and registered
1.1 percent increase from May.
(JMB) Daido Steel to Hike Stainless Bar and Shape
(Bloomberg) Germany's largest steelmaker, ThyssenKrupp, will have to delay
again the start-up of a coking plant in its new Brazilian steel plant, this
time due to massive quality problems, a German newspaper reported on Wednesday,
citing company sources.
Western Areas
selling Australia nickel to Jinchuan - Australian miner Western Areas will
supply up to 25,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate over two years from its
Forrestania project to China's Jinchuan Group, Western Areas said on Wednesday.
-
more
Xstrata, Merafe
Raise Ferrochrome Output on Demand - Xstrata Plc, the world’s
biggest ferrochrome producer, and Merafe Resources Ltd. raised output of
the stainless steel ingredient at their South African joint venture to 60
percent of capacity after demand strengthened. -
more
ThyssenKrupp Mulls
Dropping US Stainless Steel Plant Plans -- German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp
AG is thinking about dropping plans for its stainless steel plant in the
U.S., but it hasn't made a decision yet, a spokesman for the company's steel
division told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday. -
more
New Caledonian
government opposed to SLN cuts - The New Caledonian government has rebuffed
a bid by the SLN nickel company to cut the number of hours worked at its
plant to cope with the economic downturn. -
more
World nickel stocks
still high - Eramet - Global nickel inventories remain above "normal" levels,
an executive from French mining group Eramet said on Wednesday, keeping up
pressure on the metal's price. -
more
African Eagle
to seek investor for Tanzania nickel project - African Eagle Resources Plc
will seek a partner for its Dutwa nickel project in Tanzania in about a year,
South Africa's Business Day reported, quoting the company's operations director,
Mr Christopher Davies. -
more
Vale CEO calls
Sudbury unit ‘not sustainable' - Less than three years after winning
a $19-billion “dream” acquisition of Inco, the head of Brazil's
Vale SA has made a shocking assessment of its Sudbury operations: They're
unsustainable at current cost levels. -
more
Contract talks
break off at Vale Inco in Sudbury - Contract talks between Vale Inco and
its unionized workers in Sudbury, Ontario, broke off on Monday less than
a week before a strike deadline. -
more
(A little background comparison)
American Metal Market May 29, 2003 - The likelihood of a strike at
Inco Ltd.'s operations in Sudbury, Ontario, heightened Wednesday after union
representatives walked away from the bargaining table and urged workers to
reject the company's latest offer. - (lead to an 11 week strike on 95%
rejection vote) - price of nickel at $4.18/lb on news, fell below $4/lb
as strike progressed
CBC May 28, 2006 - United Steelworkers union leaders have rejected
the latest contract offer from Inco, urging 3,000 workers to vote in favour
of a strike at facilities in two Ontario cities. - (received 11th hour
contract they recommended to membership and 68% of union voted to accept)
- price of nickel dropped to $9.80/lb on news
Sudbury Star July 7, 2009 - Wayne Fraser, director of Steelworkers'
District 6, told reporters Monday afternoon his bargaining team will recommend
members reject the company's offer at ratification meetings set for Friday
and Saturday, just hours before a 12:01 a. m. strike or lockout deadline
July 12. - (read numerous comments at bottom of this story for some
of Inco employee's thoughts on recent offer -
here)
Cartel hurdles
complicate Thyssen stainless solution - ThyssenKrupp, Europe's largest stainless
steel maker, will have to find creative ways to dodge anti-trust bullets
as it seeks an ally to cut stainless steel overcapacity in the region. -
more
European Nickel
ends Caldag off-take deal with BHP - European Nickel said on Wednesday it
has ended a key off-take agreement with BHP Billiton as part of a switch
which it says will facilitate getting financing from a Chinese partner. -
more
OMC / India Revises
Part Of Prices For Domestic Sales Of Chrome Ores In Q3 / 09 = For Domestic
Sales In India, Prices Generally Remain Unchanged, Prices Of Medium Grade
Ores Have Risen - According to an information from India, OMC ( Orissa Mining
Corporation ) announced recently the prices of chrome ores for domestic sales
in July - September quarter of 2009. The prices of chrome ores classified
by grades for domestic sales in July - September quarter are as per the table
attached hereto. -
more
China Sees More
Steel Capacity Growth - China's huge economic stimulus package has encouraged
steel mills to step up expanding capacity, Xu Lejiang said, and noted that
overcapacity is structural. -
more
China reportedly inks iron ore deal - China backed down on iron ore prices,
signing up to the same 33 percent price cut agreed by Asian rivals but only
for a six-month period rather than a full year, the China Business News said
on Wednesday, citing informed sources it did not name. -
more
China holds Rio exec as spy; iron ore deal said done - Chinese authorities
are detaining Rio Tinto Ltd's top iron ore negotiator on suspicion of espionage
and stealing state secrets, Australia said on Wednesday, threatening to strain
already fraying ties. -
more
China Alleges Rio Tinto's Hu Is A Spy - Rio Tinto Ltd. employee Stern Hu
has been held in China on suspicion of espionage and has been accused of
stealing state secrets, Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said Wednesday.
-
more
China June Steel Output Tops January-May, Umetal Says - Crude steel
production by China, the largest maker, rose to 45.4 million metric tons
in June, the highest level this year, Umetal Research Institute said. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Australian Central Bank Keeps Benchmark
Interest Rate at 3% a Third Month // Mukherjee Says Indian Deficit `Risk
Worth Taking' to Spur Economic Growth // Asian Stocks Fall for Fifth Day;
Commodity Shares Decline, Utilities Rise // German Manufacturing Orders Surged
4.4% in May, Most in Almost Two Years // Debt Burden Accelerates Global Power
Shift as G-8 Countries Lose Influence // EU Finance Ministers Say It's Too
Soon to Enact Stimulus Exit Strategies // Factory Production Unexpectedly
Declines for First Time in Three Months // Oil, Gas Market Speculation May
Face Restrictions From CFTC, Gensler Says // U.S. Should Consider a Second
Stimulus Package, Obama Adviser Tyson Says // Goldman May Lose Millions From
Software Theft, More Competition, U.S. Says // Goldman Sachs Says Morgan
Stanley All Wrong About Fed's Quantitative Exit // Stocks in U.S. Retreat
on Earnings Concern; Discover, Exxon, Chevron Drop //
The US Dollar continues to trade lower against the Euro, but only by 1/3
of 1% and off session highs. NYMEX crude is down nearly 2% and under $63/barrel.
Gold is trading slightly lowe, while silver is lower by nearly 1%. Base metals
started the day trading solidly in the green, but a wavering Euro, plus the
negative trend in equity markets, and oil taking another hit, all teamed
up to drive metals off their highs, and the complex ended mixed. Indicator
charts of nickel today look like a photo of a complete mountain. Dow Jones
reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.10/lb. Inventories of nickel
stored in LME warehouses rose overnight, while the Baltic Dry Index continues
to slump, by another 159 points. While US economic news is on the light side
today, Wall Street is lower as traders nervously await the earnings season.
Oh we nearly forgot. The American Bankers Association’s reported consumer
delinquencies rose to a record rate in the first quarter of 2009, but you
probably already guessed that was coming. The USW continues to rattle its
saber in Sudbury against Vale, while Mirabela nears completion on its Santa
Rita nickel mine in Brazil, while Vale's Goro mine in New Caledonia announced
another delay in its completion last week.
Statement by Chairman Gary Gensler on Speculative Position Limits and Enhanced
Transparency Initiatives -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
Societe Generale - "Essentially over the next quarter we expect renewed funds
versus fundamentals battle, with the prospect of extreme price volatility."
Toledo Mining says Ferrexpo CEO to take stake -
more
Iron Ore Co. shutdown hits western Labrador retailers -
more
Economist’s Free Exchange blog - "It’s worth wondering why only
recently extended joblessness after a downturn has become the norm. Perhaps
the pace of structural change has increased, or maybe change in demand and
supply for low-skilled workers has reached a critical inflection point. If
growth in demand for low-skilled workers has slowed considerably while supply
growth has increased, then workers may stay in unemployment for longer and
longer periods. This will lead to skill erosion, making workers harder to
hire, and downward pressure on wages, reducing the benefits of joining the
labor force in the first place. Each time through the business cycle, the
labor market at the bottom end of the skill spectrum will worsen. Not a pretty
picture. But with output variables moderating while employment variables
continue to sink, there is every indication that recovery from this recession,
when it arrives, will do little for many of the unemployed for years to come.
Time to start thinking about why this is the case, and what can be done about
it."
Largest nickel
sulphide mine since Voisey's Bay nearing production - a positive nickel story
- Mirabela Nickel is bringing its Santa Rita mine in Brazil into production
and MD, Nick Poll is extremely confident about the economics despite the
current woes affecting the global nickel sector. -
more
UBS Predicts Metal
Prices to Drop This Quarter on Re-Stocking - Metals prices, which have risen
39 percent this year in London, will decline this quarter as re- stocking
in China nears completion, according to UBS AG. -
more
China's ferroalloy
producers to shrink by 804 to 1,096 by 2010 - The total number of ferroalloy
producers in mainland China is expected to decline by 804 to 1,096 by 2010,
a source from the China Ferroalloy Industry Association, or CFIA, said Tuesday.
-
more
Vale says Chinese must choose benchmark or spot - Brazilian miner Vale said
on Tuesday that China must choose between continuing to buy ore at an
annually-revised benchmark price or switching to spot market purchases. -
more
ArcelorMittal
Restarts EU Furnace But Demand Still Weak - In a sign that steel orders may
be picking up in Europe, ArcelorMittal (MT), the world's largest steelmaker
by volume, decided last week to restart a blast furnace in Belgium, although
it warned that real demand still remains weak. -
more
Tata Steel India
sales up 19 pct on year in June - Tata Steel Ltd, the world's sixth-largest
steel maker, said on Tuesday that June steel sales from its Indian operations
rose 19 percent from a year earlier to 497,000 tonnes. -
more
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.08/lb
higher, with all base
metals trading in the green this morning. The US Dollar is helping
commodities, by trading 1/3 of 1% lower against the Euro. NYMEX crude futures
are up 1% and approaching $65/barrel. Gold is higher by 2/3 of 1% and silver
is up 1/3 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets traded flat with China
lower and Taiwan and South Korea ending higher. European markets are slightly
higher this morning, while US futures are slightly lower at the moment. Factory
production in the UK fell unexpectedly, while Germany factory orders climbed
4.4% in May.
SMM Weekly Review and Forecast (June 29 - July 3) -
more
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals ended lower on Monday,
but a retreat by the dollar from two-week highs against the Euro, coupled
with an impressive reversal in US equity markets, reversed earlier losses.
Macro readings out of the US on Monday did little to impact sentiment one
way or the other. ISM services readings for June came in at 47, up from 44
in May, but the number was very much in line with estimates. More importantly,
as long as the ISM remains below 50, underlying activity is considered to
be in contractionary mode. We are seeing a decent-sized bounce set in over
metals as of this writing, with the group recovering nicely after
yesterdays’ losses. ... Nickel is at $16,175, up $225. Prices are now
back over into breakout territory above $16,000. It remains to be seen whether
the complex can now push to test next resistance at $17,700. Technically,
at least, the chart patterns seem to suggest that we could." (read Ed
Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Yieh) Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (YUSCO) and Tang Eng have raised
their stainless steel price by NT$2,000/ton for July, but domestic market
activity remains relatively weak.
(Yieh) BNG Steel has lifted the 300 series stainless steel prices by around
US$250/ton on the previous price. Hysco also declared to lift the stainless
steel prices of 300 series and 200 series by US$210/ton and US$190/ton
respectively.
(JMB) Ni Series Cold Stainless Sheet Price May Turn Upward, Tokyo
Wuhan Steel Raises Prices by 12% for August Delivery -
more
(CS) China Securities Journal citing Mr Liu Shijin deputy director of the
Development Research Center of the State Council as saying that "There is
no overcapacity at all in China's steel industry in the long-run." According
to Mr Liu, the overcapacity does not exist since the summit of Chinese steel
production has yet to come which is likely to be 700m tonnes to 800m tonnes.
China's power generation was up 3.59% year on year and reached 309.33 billion
kW in June, data released by the State Grid on July 3.
Strike at Vale
Inco looms - There is a one in a trillion chance Vale Inco will sweeten its
final contract proposal containing unacceptable concessions before more than
3,000 United Steelworkers receive it at information meetings Wednesday and
Thursday, says USW District 6 director Wayne Fraser. -
more
High Nickel Price
Causes Anxiety For Issue Of 50,000 Tons Stocked In China By Speculation =
Half Of 100,000 Tons Imported Into China Is Supposed To Be Not Digested Stocks
- Following high copper price, LME nickel price for three-month futures at
the afternoon market on the 29th June of 2009 had temporarily risen to US$16,000
per ton, which recorded the highest price in this year. -
more
Asian stainless steel prices suffer resistance, offer may continue to rise
- The offer of East Asian 304 CR stainless steel plate delivered in the following
1-2 months on June 29 in this week maintains at US$2450-2500 / tonne CFR
China interval, but the Chinese buyers are unwilling to accept the higher
offer. Nevertheless, it was learned that stainless steel sheet prices still
continue to rise. -
more
New structure
for the Nickel Institute - The Nickel Institute1, the body that represents
90 per cent of the world’s nickel producers, has announced a change
in focus that will result in a modification of its organisational structure.
-
more
German iron, steel
output falls 45 percent - German iron and steel output for June fell sharply
as the world recession continued to cut into demand for the country's machinery
and car exports, the Federal Statistical Office reported Tuesday. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In
the week ending July 4, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,168,000
net tons while the capability utilization rate was 49.0 percent. Production
was 2,135,000 tons in the week ending July 4, 2008, while the capability
utilization then was 89.4 percent. The current week production represents
a 45.3 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production
for the week ending July 4, 2009 is up 0.6 percent from the previous week
ending June 27, 2009 when production was 1,161,000 tons and the rate of
capability utilization was 48.7 percent.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) India's Mukherjee Will Borrow Record
to Fund Budget; Stocks, Rupee Tumble // Chinese Companies Reduce Reliance
on Dollar With First Settlements in Yuan // Yen Advances Versus Euro on Concern
Credit Losses May Increase in Europe // Asian Stocks Decline on Economic
Growth Concern; BHP Billiton, Inpex Fall // Stocks in Europe, Asia Decline;
U.S. Index Futures Retreat, BHP, Rio Drop // Russia, India Question Reliance
on Dollar as G-8 Leaders Prepare to Meet // Bank of America Overtakes UBS
to Become Biggest Private Bank, Scorpio Says // Earnings Dropped Worldwide
in Second Quarter as Job Losses Hurt Consumers //European Stocks Fall, Led
by Raw-Material Producers; ThyssenKrupp Declines // U.S. Service Economy
Contracts at Slowest Pace in Nine Months in ISM Index // Treasuries' Summer
Rally Not This Year as Traders See Borrowing Bottleneck // Bank of America's
Bad Loans Top $7 Billion, Credit Suisse's Orenbuch Says // according to Scorpio
Partnership // Jim Rogers Sells Dollars, Says He Plans to Short U.S. Treasuries
`Someday' // Stocks in U.S. Drop, Extending Global Slide, as Commodity Producers
Slump
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, but at 1/3 of 1%
it is off daily highs. NYMEX crude is down 3-1/3% and over $64/barrel. Gold
is down 1% and silver is down about the same. Base metals looked like they
were in serious trouble this morning, as the Euro fell hard against the Dollar.
But soon after our morning briefing was posted, the Euro's slide ended and
base metals responded quickly, ending the day mixed. Indicator charts show
the Dollar's peak was its low point for the day and the afternoon saw the
price gradually increase. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended the day at $7.23/lb. Sucden's day old
chart shows nickel trading thru last Friday
(here). LME stored inventories of nickel finally
had a change overnight, down but remaining above the 109,000 tonne level.
The Baltic Dry Index continues to slump, down 145 points to 3,375. The slump
adds credibility to the reports that China's restocking of metals has been
put on pause. The US Institute for Supply Management reported this morning
that the ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 47.0% from 44.0% in May. Noteworthy
in the report was the listing of stainless steel under commodities higher
in price, while hand sanitizers were shown as the only commodity in short
supply. Wonder if the swine flu virus had anything to do with that.
June 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business -
more
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
ArcelorMittal suspends Senegal iron ore project -
more
Christopher Rupkey, the New York-based chief financial economist at Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ - “Consumers and businesses have postponed purchases
for six months, the population is still growing about 1.2% per year, and
if the unemployment rate is close to peaking, then growth may be firmer than
expected in the second half of 2009.”
Harvard economist Jeff Frankel - “The bottom line for the economy: despite
signs in other areas that the recession is leveling out – most importantly,
production — the labor market indicators in themselves are not yet signaling
a turning point.”
When will the
nickel killing let up? - BHP Billiton's financial year to 30 June 2009 already
has a USD 3bn nickel headache, highlighting the agony of a metal in transition.
- more
Oil, metals
pull back as China slows buying - Strategic stockpiling appears to have largely
run its course -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.34/lb
lower this morning,
with all London traded base metals trading lower. The US Dollar is trading
higher against the Euro, by about 6/10 of 1%. NYMEX crude futures are
down nearly 5% and in the $63/barrel level. Gold is down over 1% and silver
is off nearly 3%. Asian markets ended slightly higher overnight, thanks primarily
to China. European markets are lower this morning, while US futures show
US markets will open lower. Nothing much in the way of metals news happened
over the weekend. The USW is talking tough about its negotiations with Vale
Inco in Sudbury. After unloading its Yabulu nickel refinery and industry
watchers speculating it may do the same with its closed Ravensthorpe mine,
BHP is telling media it is not getting out of the nickel business. Markets
are in a sour mood this morning after last weeks US unemployment numbers
staggered many, and base metals have got caught up in the selling.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices slipped on Friday,
building on earlier opening losses, as the bearish reverberations from Thursday's
nonfarm payrolls number continued to ripple through the markets. For much
of last week, metals have been holding up well compared to the selloffs evident
in the energy and US equity markets, but the complex is doing its share of
catching up as we start the new week. We have been cautious on many markets
for some time now, as we have noticed that prices were not pushing higher
on better-than-expected macro numbers coming out. Instead, it seemed that
we needed a substantial upside surprise in the data to generate a sharp rally,
and since these surprises were few and far between, prices were clearly leveling
off. This sideways suspension at high levels usually leads to leads to a
subsequent price decline, as longs tend to bail out of their non-performing
positions, needing only a trigger to persuade them -- this was undoubtedly
provided by Thursday’s nonfarm payroll numbers. We expect metal prices
to see more weakness at least for the early part of this week, as doubts
about the strength of the global recovery emerge. In addition, the deterioration
in the technical backdrop in at least some of the metals, should also contribute
to the weaker tone. ... Nickel is at $15,460, down $745. Nickel’s breakout
above $15,900 last week (see shaded area in our chart), set the stage for
what we thought were further gains, but now that prices have now retraced
and are back below $15,900, we have to reevaluate our view over the next
few days. One positive is the fact that the short-term upchannel in place
since late April (see red line) still seems to be intact." (read Ed Meir's
complete morning base metals report
here)
(SBB) Major Chinese stainless mills such as Taiyuan Iron & Steel, Baosteel
Stainless and Lianzhong Stainless Steel Corp continue to raise production,
with most hitting their full capacity.
BS- Sajjan Jindal-controlled JSW Steel plans to double the output from its
plate and pipe mills in the US following a revival in demand. At present,
the plant is utilizing 15 per cent of its 1.7 million tonnes (MT) annual
production capacity. Within three months, the mills will be running at 30
per cent capacity as the market is recovering slowly, said JSW Group’s
Chief Financial Officer MVS Seshagiri Rao.
(CM) Domestic daily crude steel output hit 1.52 million tons in mid-June,
the highest level so far this year and equivalent to 556 million tons annually,
much higher than the 470 million tons projected by the MIIT.
IANS - Steelmaker Arcelor-Mittal would re-open the second blast furnace at
its plant in Ghent, Belgium, in August, EuAsiaNews reported Sunday.
Telegraph - The shocker last week was not just that the US lost 467,000 jobs
in May, but also that time worked fell 6.9pc from a year earlier, dropping
to 33 hours a week. "At no time in the 1990 or 2001 recessions did we ever
come close to seeing such a detonating jobs figure," said David Rosenberg
from Glukin Sheff. "We have lost a record nine million full-time jobs this
cycle."
The Daily Reckoning - John William's Shadow Government Statistics reports
that without these twists, the numbers tell the same story they've been telling
all year - unemployment is still getting worse, at about the same pace as
earlier in the year. "The unadjusted annual decline in May payrolls was the
worst since May 1958," says Williams. And if they were allowed to speak freely
- as they did in the '30s - the figures would show real unemployment at over
20% of the workforce...or about 30 million people. That approaches Great
Depression levels...and we're still only in 1930, not 1932. As for those
still working, an additional 1.5 million U.S. workers have been "forced into
part time work" according to the Financial Times.
Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike -
more
India Joins Russia, China in Questioning U.S. Dollar Dominance -
more
Strike imminent:
union official - With no movement on the bargaining table during the weekend,
it's looking like pickets will be going up at Vale Inco on July 12. -
more
DJ BHP Billiton
Unbowed Over Nickel Projects - Report - BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) hasn't ruled
out pursuing further nickel laterite developments, The Australian Financial
Review reported on its Web site Monday, citing the president of stainless
steel materials at BHP, Jimmy Wilson. -
more
Market Tendency
On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 30th June 2009 = Chinese Government, Holding
Back From Revision Of High Export Duties - The market tendency by item on
imports of ferro-alloys into Japan at the 30th June of 2009 is as follows
-
more
China Faces Higher
Iron Ore Prices as Contract Talks Stall - China, the world’s biggest
buyer of iron ore, faces the risk of higher cash prices as annual contract
talks stall with producers. -
more
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Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Friday, July 3 and weekend
updates
Weekend updates
Rising demand
for base metals key indicator of GCC growth - Though it's the energetic oil
and the lustrous gold that hog media headlines as indicators of an upwardly
or a downwardly mobile economy, economists affirm that the real indicator
is consumption of base metals – particularly steel. -
more
China's metals ploy
was quick to rust - If "China Inc" was a person then it would probably be
Xiao Yaqing, the former president of Chinalco who is also an alternate member
of the Communist Party's Central Committee. -
more
China's steel demand in 2009 may surpass 2008 - Despite the protracted financial
crisis, China's demand for steel this year is likely to be larger than that
of 2008, which could help shore up the global demand, Roland Verstappen,
vice president of global steel giant ArcelorMittal said on the sidelines
of the Global Think Tank Summit on Saturday in Beijing. -
more
Economist: China's imports decline not due to protectionism - The decline
in China's imports has nothing to do with trade protectionism, but is a result
of the country's falling exports due to shrinking overseas orders amid the
global economic slowdown, a senior economist told the 2009 Global Think Tank
Forum on Saturday. -
more
Global steel majors
await India’s move on iron ore exports - Steel majors in Asia and elsewhere
are anxious about developments in India in relation to iron ore. Steel industry
stakeholders from across the world are closely watching any sign of restrictions
on iron ore exports out of India. -
more
Commodities: Is it
time to buy copper and nickel again? - The price of oil went below $40 a
barrel, but is now around $70. Copper collapsed from $9,000 a tonne to below
$3,000; now it is above $5,000. Nickel, zinc and tin are all up 50%-60% since
their March lows. Is this the start of another bull run for small investors
in commodity funds or time to cash in? -
more
Contract talks
in final stages - The negotiating team for Vale Inco Ltd. presented United
Steelworkers Locals 6500 and 6200 (Port Colborne) with the company's settlement
proposal Friday as the July 12 deadline for an agreement, a strike or a lockout
loomed one day closer. -
more
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day and week at
$7.35/lb
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
(Dow Jones) -India's stainless steel production in the financial year ending
March 2010 is expected to remain around the same level as the previous year's
output of 1.6 million metric tons, a senior industry official said Friday.
(Dow Jones) --JSW Steel Ltd., India's second-largest producer of the metal
by local capacity, Friday said crude steel production rose 45% during the
fiscal first quarter.
Macquarie Bank analyst Brendan Harris - "We see Yabulu as a challenged operation
because of the increasing competition from Chinese nickel pig iron producers."
(FD) Rusina Mining NL announced that DMCI Mining has notified Rusina Mining
that it will suspend its current operations at the Company's Acoje tenement
on the island of Luzon in the Philippines due to low nickel prices. As noted
in the last 3 Quarterly Reports, DSO shipments virtually stopped in June
2008. Since that time DMCI has sold a few sporadic shipments principally
clearing stockpiles at port. The DSO market, under current nickel and iron
prices has moved towards The supply of ore for the production of low nickel
'pig-iron' where prices paid for ore are virtually at cost with little to
no profit. The continuation of mining the required high iron low nickel limonite
ore is not economic to DMCI.
China steelmakers working on lower ore price -
more
ArcelorMittal to restart Gent furnace as stocks fall -
more
Kazakh ENRC
launches $110 mln chrome pelletiser - Kazakh miner ENRC, the world's
largest ferrochrome producer, has launched a new facility to produce chrome
pellets at its Donskoi GOK chrome ore mine complex, the company said on Friday.
-
more
Expert: Miners
to remain cautious on growth once economy rebounds - Once large miners revisit
projects placed on hold due to the global recession they will likely adopt
a more cautious stance towards them and approve gradual development, as opposed
to aiming to reach production as soon as possible as was the case prior to
the crisis, according to Colin Becker, mining expert and Santiago, Chile-based
partner with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). -
more
Nickel refiner
admits to Ravensthorpe interest - Resources billionaire Clive Palmer says
he does not need to buy BHP Billiton’s Ravensthorpe mine to make his
newly acquired Yabulu nickel refinery viable, but would consider an offer
for the mothballed WA project. -
more
BHP Sells Yabulu Nickel Plant to Billionaire Palmer (Update4) - BHP Billiton
Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, sold the Yabulu nickel refinery
in Australia after writing down its value by $675 million, in a retreat from
production of the metal. -
more
Palmer plans Yabulu expansion - BHP will book heavy write-downs on the sale
of its Yabulu nickel refinery at Townsville to iron ore billionaire Clive
Palmer - who is eying the mining giant's other nickel assets including the
mothballed Ravensthorpe mine. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.07/lb
lower, with all base
metals lower but quiet. Dollar/Euro trading is also quiet, with the Euro
only stronger ahead at the moment. NYMEX crude futures are coasting
at $66.80/barrel, while gold is up 4/10 of 1% and silver is up more than
4/10 of 1%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended lower, with China ending
higher. European markets are slightly lower this morning, with US markets
closed. The big news of the day is BHP's decision to sell their Yabulu Refinery,
while Vale's Goro nickel mine announces yet another start up delay. Not sure
when or if we will be able to update later, as we have a crowd coming over
for the weekend, so here are a few other updates. The Baltic Dry Index dropped
152 points overnight to settle at 3520. And LME stored inventories of nickel
saw a second day of no change.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals finished lower yesterday
on the back of grim US nonfarm payroll numbers after it was reported that
economy shed 467,000 jobs in June, 100,000 more than expected. This reversed
the modest declines we were seeing of late, as layoff notices flooded across
the manufacturing, construction, and service-sector industries; education
and health care were the only sectors to add jobs. In the meantime, the
unemployment rate pushed higher to 9.5%. ... Nickel is at $16,380, down $70;
surprisingly, nickel looks very solid on the charts, and with two day of
closes above $15,900 resistance, we could now push higher to the $17,700
mark." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(MP) Mining major Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC (ENRC) has
commissioned the second chrome ore pelletiser and related facilities at Donskoy
GOK chrome ore mine complex in Kazakhstan, which supplies Kazchrome company
of its Ferroalloys Division.
ThyssenKrupp Technologies receives major submarine order from Turkey - Yesterday,
a contract was signed by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft GmbH (HDW), Kiel, a
company of ThyssenKrupp Technologies, and MarineForce International LLP (MFI),
London, for the delivery of six material packages for the construction of
Class 214 submarines to Turkey.
Xstrata tells French media that construction at their New Caledonia Koniambo
mega nickel mine is on schedule and is scheduled to being production of 60,000
tonnes of nickel annually in 2012.
(MB) China's Guangzhou Lianzhong Stainless Steel is the third major stainless
mill to lift its July list prices by 300 yuan ($44) per tonne
BHP Billiton has been ordered to commission an independent engineering study
at one of its West Australian nickel mines after two rockfalls in the past
three weeks.
(Yieh) China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) said that China’s daily
steel output reached 1.522 million tons in June 11-20, hitting the record
high this year. Based on this rate of steel output, the annual steel output
of 2009 is estimated to reach 555.5 million tons, 10 percent higher than
output in 2008.
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) confirmed Thursday it had bought
US$1.5 billion of Rio Tinto shares to cement its nine per cent shareholding
in the miner.
Expert: Miners to remain cautious on growth once economy rebounds -
more
Recession fallout to be long-lasting: report -
more
Steel industry points cautiously to rebound -
more
Sale Of Yabulu
Nickel Refinery, Queensland, Australia - BHP Billiton is pleased to announce
it has signed an agreement to sell the Yabulu nickel refinery to companies
wholly owned by Professor Clive Palmer. It is expected that the sale will
be finalised by 31 July 2009. -
more
New
Caledonia’s Vale Inco plant launch delayed - The launch of the Vale
Inco nickel plant in the Southern Province of New Caledonia has again been
delayed after it was to be operational in the middle of this year. -
more
Under-mining:
Plant in southern Armenia resumes amid worker concerns - A copper-molybdenum
plant in southern Armenia that ground to a halt last year influenced by the
unfavorable world market situation and the broader global economic slowdown
has resumed operations this week -
more
Steel industry
rekindles, hope for recovery - Steel order books in Europe and the United
States have improved over the past month, prompting producers to restart
some idled capacity, but full recovery is some months away because real demand
remains depressed. -
more
US monthly steel import
applications declined 21% in June - Permit applications to import 734,667
mt of steel products were filed in the month of June, the US Commerce Department
reported Wednesday. -
more
EU steel demand
fell 43% in H1 2009, market bottom close: Eurofer - European steelmakers'
lobby Eurofer said Thursday that apparent steel consumption in Europe had
fallen 43% year on year in the first half of 2009, but added that leading
indicators suggested that the economic downturn could bottom out over coming
months, reporting the findings in its Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2009-2010
report. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Renews Call for `Stable' Dollar,
Diversification of Monetary System // Toyota, Honda's Drop in U.S. Vehicle
Sales Outpaces Overall Market Decline // Asian Shares Fall as U.S. Sales,
India Fuel Hit Automakers; Newcrest Gains // Trichet Says ECB Rates Appropriate,
Economy May Recover in Middle of 2010 // PVM Loses Almost $10 Million in
Rogue Trades, May Have Caused Spike in Oil // European Stocks Drop as U.S.
Unemployment Climbs; Volkswagen, Total Fall // Payrolls in U.S. Decline More
Than Forecast; Unemployment Climbs to 9.5% // Morgan Stanley May Post Another
Loss After Paying Back U.S. Bailout Funds // Boeing Lost Orders for 15
Dreamliners in Past Week as Airlines Scale Back // U.S. Stocks, Commodities
Retreat After Unemployment Data; Treasuries Gain
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, by nearly 9/10
of 1%. NYMEX crude is down over 3-1/2% and under $67/barrel. Gold is down
1% and silver is off nearly 2-1/2%. Base metals looked like they were in
for a good old fashioned bushwhacking this morning, but by the end of the
day had regained most of their earlier losses, and most ended slightly lower.
Indicator charts show nickel trading was choppy today, and slowly sunk thru
much of the day, until the end when it soared back to near its starting point.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.46/lb, $.02/lb lower than
yesterday's 2009 record close. The funds are still investing in commodities,
and the Dollar's strength caused a pause, but was no hindrance for the day.
Numerous reports that LME stored inventories of nickel were flat overnight,
but we doubt this is true. The Baltic Dry Index lost 70 points to 3,672.
While generally dismissed by the green shooters in past months, the unemployment
numbers for the last two months have staggered the bulls, albeit momentarily.
Today's release was no different. The U.S. economy lost 467,000 jobs in June,
after a 322,000 decline in May, with the unemployment rate rising to 9.5%
from 9.4% the month before. Calculated Risk has a comparison chart that is
rather depressing (chart
here). US markets
will be closed tomorrow for Independence Day celebrations, so while we will
post a morning briefing, it may be delayed. For our US readers, Happy Fourth
and have a safe and relaxing weekend!
Nickel market
surplus estimates revised down - Metals market analysts suggest that late
second-half restocking of high-grade stainless steel mill products will boost
nickel demand and prices, which have slipped to a midyear average of $5.30/lb.
- more
MacroAsia
still pursuing nickel project - Listed holding company MacroAsia Corp. expects
to complete exploration early next year to move forward its mining project
in the nickel-rich southern Palawan. -
more
Eurofer sees EU
steel market bottoming out - European steel industry body Eurofer sees the
EU steel market bottoming out and moving to an equilibrium by the fourth
quarter of the year as destocking runs its course, it said in a statement
on Thursday. -
more
Morning Briefing(8:00 AM CST is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.15/lb
lower, with all base
metals backtracking off yesterday's gains. The US Dollar is stronger today,
and hurting commodity trading, up 2/3 of 1% against the Euro. NYMEX crude
futures are down 2% and under $68/barrel. Gold is off nearly 1% and silver
is down 2-1/4%. In overnight trading Asian markets ended lower, although
China ended higher and is trading at a 13 month high. European markets are
lower this morning, and US futures imply Wall Street could open lower. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor unemployment numbers
just released show nonfarm payrolls shrank by 467,000 in June, with the overall
unemployment rate climbing in June from 9.4% to 9.5%. A closely watched indicator
that is used as a key indicator that the recession has ended is workweek
hours - in June they fell to a record low of 33.0 hours. It is shaping up
to be an ugly trading day, although with US markets closed tomorrow,
US trading could be light.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices surged yesterday
in something of an unusual performance given that energy prices relinquished
earlier gains to finish lower, while US equities also gave up much of their
advances for the day. Metal prices instead pushed higher on the back of a
slightly weaker dollar and relatively decent macro readings that came in
from both China and Europe, both noted in yesterday's report. .. Some second
thoughts about Wednesday’s steep rally may be surfacing today, where
this time, both energy and metals are off sharply, as are US equity futures.
There is understandable nervousness ahead of the June US nonfarm payroll
report out later (expected at -365,000), which in our view, could come in
somewhat higher than expected given the unimpressive ADP reading out Wednesday.
The unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 9.6%, up from last month
9.4%. We also will be getting the May factory orders reading later in the
day, (expected at .9%). .. Nickel is at $16,140, down $355; we alluded
to a possible bearish double-top formation showing up on the nickel charts,
but yesterday's sharp move higher dispelled such a notion. We now need to
see prices close above $15,900 again today if this latest move is to amount
to anything." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(FT) Barclays Capital noted that nickel imports in China have risen, hitting
a record high in May, while mine output has declined 21 per cent so far this
year when compared with 2008. The bank cautioned, however, that prices were
vulnerable. “Some of the drivers appear unsustainable and it will not
be until end-demand conditions improve towards the end of the year, in our
view, that there will be a concrete recovery in prices,” it said,
forecasting nickel prices by late-2009 at $12,800 a tonne.
Panoramic Resources Ltd. Thursday said it produced a record 18,750 metric
tons of nickel contained in concentrate during the 2008-09 financial year,
a 26% rise on the previous year -
more
(Dow Jones) The rise in LME nickel prices this week is overdone, says
Commerzbank.
(Interfax) Jinchuan Group Ltd., China's largest nickel producer, increased
its ex-works nickel price on July 2 by RMB 4,000 ($585.57) per ton to RMB
122,000 ($17,860.02) per ton, according to Jinchuan Group's Web site.
(Interfax) Baoshan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. (Baosteel), a subsidiary of China's
top steelmaker Baosteel Group, is likely to raise the August ex-works prices
for some of its steel products by between RMB 150 ($21.96) per ton and RMB
200 ($29.28) per ton from July price levels, a source close to Baosteel told
Interfax on July 1.
(MP) BHP Billiton has announced that it has no plans to sell its Kwinana
refinery in Western Australia.
Barings: Russian Commodities key in China’s bid for global supremacy
-
more
China Iron Ore Demand to Boost Shipping, Morgan Stanley Says -
more
IFC invests $15 mln in Kiwara for Zambia exploration -
more
JSL to attain 0.8
mt stainless steel capacity by mid-2010... Ratan Jindal promoted JSL Ltd,
setting up a 1.6 million tonne per annum integrated stainless steel project
at Kalinganagar in Jajpur district, hopes to attain 0.8 million tonne stainless
steel making capacity by mid-2010. -
more
AK Steel Announces
August 2009 Surcharges for Electrical and Stainless Steels - AK Steel has
advised its customers that a $75 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices
for electrical steel products shipped in August 2009. -
more
Flat-rolled carbon, stainless and electrical steel provider AK Steel declared
on Wednesday that a USD75 per ton surcharge will be added to invoices for
electrical and stainless steels products shipped in August 2009. -
source
Semirara halts
nickel project on weak prices - Semirara Mining Corp. said on Thursday its
50-percent-held unit has suspended operations at a nickel project north of
the capital due to low prices of the metal. -
more
Beijing buckles
in iron ore price battle - Australia's iron ore miners have won their
long-running price battle with China's government-owned steel producers.
Signs of hasty compromise emerged yesterday as China battled to avoid the
collapse of the 40-year-old benchmark price-setting system, which would pitch
the world's largest steel producer into the uncharted waters of relying on
spot-pricing and volumes to meet its iron ore needs. -
more
Chinese steel mills offer compromise - Pricing talks between Chinese steelmakers
and global iron-ore suppliers dragged on after they failed to reach agreement
by a June 30 deadline. -
more
Crude steel output
to mark its biggest jump in the July-September quarter - Japan's crude
steel output will mark its biggest quarter-to-quarter jump on record in the
July-September quarter, helped by public spending and a rundown in stocks,
but the longer term outlook is still cloudy, the government said. -
more
BHP Nickel West,
Mithril Pull Out of Silver Swan JV With FerrAus - BHP Billiton Nickel West
and Mithril Resources Ltd have withdrawn from the Silver Swan North nickel
and gold joint venture, with full ownership of the project reverting to FerrAus
Ltd. -
more
BHP to undertake study of rockfall mine - BHP Billiton has been ordered to
commission an independent engineering study at one of its West Australian
nickel mines after two rockfalls in the past three weeks. -
more
Kagara Confirms Nickel Intersection at Lounge Lizard - Kagara Ltd has received
final analytical results for underground diamond drillhole FUG471 drilled
by Western Areas NL and reported on June 24. -
more
FACTBOX-World's
top steel producers in 2008 - China's insatiable appetite for steel has helped
the country's steelmakers overtake most of their Japanese and Korean peers
in the top five ranking producers of the world in 2008. -
more
Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics &
Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China's Manufacturing Expands for Fourth
Month on Stimulus, Bank Lending // Japan Tankan Confidence Rises Less Than
Expected, Signals Slower Recovery // Rio, China Steel Mills Should Make
Concessions in Ore Talks, Official Says // Asian Stocks Drop on Share Sale
Concern, Lower Commodities; Baoshan Climbs // British Banks Eliminate 55,000
Positions, Another 13,000 Jobs May Be Axed // Stocks in Europe Climb; Marks
& Spencer, Commerzbank, Vedanta Shares Rise // U.S. Companies Cut June
Payrolls by 473,000, More Than Estimated, ADP Says // Banks Falling 23% Since
May Foreshadows S&P 500 Decline as Builders Weaken // Manufacturing in
U.S. Shrinks at Slower Pace in Sign Recession Is Easing // Harvard's Feldstein
Sees Renewed Economic Slump After `Temporary' Rebound // Gasoline Tumbles
as U.S. Stockpiles Increase for Third Week, Demand Slides // Stocks in U.S.
Rise After S&P 500's Best Quarter Since 1998; Yum! Advances
The Euro continues to beat up on the US Dollar today, now trading 1% higher.
NYMEX crude did an about face on inventory numbers and is now 1/2 of 1% lower
and under $70/barrel. Gold is up over 1-1/2% while silver is higher by 1-1/3%.
Base metals all started the second half of 2009 on a positive note, helped
by the US Dollar and China manufacturing index numbers. Indicator charts
show nickel was solidly gaining nearly all day, before losing some upward
momentum toward the closing. Dow Jones reports three month nickel closed
at a new high for 2009, at $7.48/lb. Other fundamentals
were not so positive for nickel. LME stored inventories increased overnight,
now over 109,500 tonnes, and cancelled warrants continue to slip, and now
well under the 1% level. The Baltic Dry Index dipped again, after only
a one day gain, down 15 points to 3,742. Watch this number over the next
few weeks as it could tell us whether China has truly put the kaboosh on
stockpiling metals, or is hoping an otherwise 'little fib' might drive prices
lower. So far, prices have failed to cooperate if the latter was the goal.
The National Association of Realtors reported pending sales of existing homes
rose for the fourth month in May, up 0.1%, after a 7.1% gain in April. The
Commerce Department reported today that construction spending dropped 0.9
percent in May. And the Institute for Supply Management advised that the
ISM index rose to 44.8% in June from 42.8% in May, its strongest performance,
albeit still reflecting an industry in contraction mode, since September.
So what happened to metals today? Three things. The Dollar took a dive and
this generally helps base metals by making them less expensive overseas.
Second, the China PMI grew from a 53.1 reading in May to 53.2 in June. Kind
of exciting for those 'half full kind 'of people until you remember it was
reading 53.5 in March. We track the PMI numbers on this site, since they
seem to have a real psychological effect on the markets,
here. And lastly, we started a new quarter today, so
there is fresh fund money to be allocated. And why wouldn't a fund manager
give nickel a second look. Not many equities out there offering the return
nickel did last quarter. Now we will have to wait and see if their bet, with
your money, pays off, or if they are betting on a horse that already won
the race, and will be left to wondering why the house won't pay up. Who will
know. The more you analyze this market and try to understand what is happening
and why, the more frustrated you will become. Stainless steel producers have
started to pick up the production pace, a little, but most of the press releases
the producers have issued have come with a disclaimer that stated clearly
that demand for their product remained grim. Inventories of available nickel
remain high. Closed nickel mines are ready to be re-opened at the first hint
that current prices will hold. Pig nickel producers are firing up in China.
Mega mines are in the final stages of construction. There is nickel, nickel
everywhere, but hey ....... the Chinese PMI went from 53.1 to 53.2 last month,
so you 'half empty kind 'of folks just chill with that 'deer in the headlights'
look!
(Reuters) The U.S. manufacturing sector is improving but it will probably
take another three months to get it back into growth territory, Norbert Ore,
chairman of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing business
survey committee, said on Wednesday.
Sinocast - Jinchuan Group Raises July Nickel Ex-work Prices
China steel association eases stance on iron ore price cut -
more
DMCI shuts
down nickel mine - The mining unit of Consunji-led DMCI Holdings, Inc. has
suspended its nickel operations in Zambales because of the steep drop in
world prices. -
more
China Statistics
released today
Laterite nickel ore imports - Imports of laterite ore into China fell 12%
in May from April. A total of 939,708 tons was imported, of which 55% came
from the Philippines, 42% came from Indonesia, and 2% came from Australia.
Ferronickel imports - Imports of ferronickel grew in May from April by over
19%. Of the 21,658.977 tons imported, 39.6% came from Colombia, 39.4% came
from Japan, and 14.8% came from New Caledonia. (either BHP's Cerro
Matoso Colombia nickel operation has one heck of a stockpile or they have
quietly resumed operations)
Vale Workers May
Strike Over Benefits in Canada, Valor Says - Vale SA workers in Canada may
strike to protest the company’s plans to cut employment benefits, Valor
Economico reported, citing Wayne Fraser, a United Steelworkers director.
-
more
Steel Firms in the
Limelight after Huge Ore Find in Liaoning - Two steel companies are in the
stock market spotlight after reports of the discovery of a large iron ore
deposit in Liaoning province. The two Liaoning companies, Angang Steel and
Bengang Steel, had separately "clarified" their involvement in the fabled
mine after their shares were suspended from trading earlier this week because
of the "unusual" price surge. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
Indicators at 7:35 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.24/lb
higher, with all base
metals and equity markets higher on news out of China that manufacturing
increased for a fourth month. The US DOllar is helping commodities, by trading
4/10 of 1% lower against the Euro. NYMEX crud eis up nearly 1-3/4 of 1% and
over $71/barrel. Gold and silver are both up over a little of 1% this
morning. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended higher, with Australia
lower. European markets are trading higher this morning, and US futures show
Wall Street will open higher. The ADP employment report, released this morning,
shows the US private sector lost 473,000 jobs in June, better than expected,
and the report comes one day before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm
payroll growth for June. The news that is driving markets and commodities
so far today has been the news out of China that the official China Purchasing
Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.2 in June from 53.1
in May. Readings over 50 signify expansion, and thus this news reaffirms
hopes that China will lead the world out of the recession. Alex Heath, the
head of base metals trading at RBC Capital Markets warned, "The Chinese
PMI has helped, everyone is looking to China to remain a positive factor
but we are talking about a market slowing as we go into the summer
period."
PWC Review of global trends in the mining industry 2009 -
more(free after registering)
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals staged a reversal
yesterday, selling off sharply from earlier highs, as weaker US equities,
a decline in energy prices, and a stronger dollar, all combined to hit the
complex. A set of soggy US macro numbers did not help either. In this regard,
US June consumer confidence readings dipped sharply, falling to 49.3 from
54.8 in the month prior, and coming in well below the 55.3 expected. The
disappointing reading was driven by a drop in both the “present situation
index” (to 24.8% from 29.7%) and the “expectations index”
(to 65.5% from 71.5%). In addition, although Chicago PMI came in slightly
ahead of estimates, it barely squeaked by (at 39.9 vs. the 39 expected) and
thus failed to have much impact. ... We are seeing impressive bounces in
metals as of this writing, this despite a weaker close seen in the Shanghai
markets. An increase in energy prices on account of bullish US inventory
data, (out late yesterday) and some steadiness shown in Asian equity markets,
are both leading to buying in metals. Also helping, was a report out of China
showing that manufacturing there expanded for a fourth month, this after
the official purchasing managers index rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.2
in June from 53.1 in May. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. ...
Nickel is at $15,630, up $255; a possible bearish double-top formation is
showing up on the charts." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
(Reuters) Nickel, up about 60 per cent this quarter, is on track to close
its strongest three months since the fourth quarter of 2003.
(Yieh) China’s Taiyuan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd (Tisco) has announced
new ex-work price for the twenty seventh week of this year. The price of
304 hot rolled and cold rolled stainless steel as well as 430 cold rolled
stainless steel increased by RMB300/ton. Tisco has withdrawn from offering
prices for 304 stainless steel.
(Reuters) Mining company Rio Tinto is believed to have warned the China Iron
and Steel Association (CISA) that it is prepared to use clauses in contracts
that allow Rio to cancel contracted volumes and instead sell the ore on the
spot market. The "drop-dead" clauses come into effect if benchmark prices
have not been agreed to by June 30.
(Bloomberg) Chrometco Ltd.: The ferrochrome development and exploration company
will buy a 90 percent stake in Lime-Chem Ltd., a limestone and dolomite producer,
for 367 million new shares and 20 million rand ($2.6 million) in cash.
(CM) China's crude and stainless steel output is expected to reach or even
exceed 10 million tons this year if no violent fluctuations occur in domestic
and international markets, said Li Long, an official with the China Metals
Association (CMA), Tuesday.
(Platts) Japan's domestic demand for ordinary and specialty steel in the
third quarter of 2009 is forecast at 14.65 million mt, down 26.2% year on
year, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Monday. The Q3 demand
is expected to be 9.4% higher than the second quarter, the ministry said.
(Interfax) Baoshan Iron and Steel Group (Baosteel Group), China's top steel
mill, was the third-largest steel mill worldwide by output in 2008, producing
35.4 million tons of crude steel during the period, according to a report
released by the World Steel Association (WSA) on June 30.
(AF&PA) According to the American Forest & Paper Association's May
2009 U. S. Containerboard Statistics Report released today, total containerboard
paper production decreased 10.6% in May compared to May 2008. However, total
containerboard paper production rose 216,700 tons or 9.0% when compared to
April 2009.
ThyssenKrupp Loses Bid to Overturn EU Antitrust Fine -
more
Gladstone Pacific Nickel loses Chinese backing -
more
Whether and how much China is stockpiling commodities and raw materials -
more
Exuberance in the Commodities Market: for how long will it last? -
more
Stainless Steel Prices
Increase in June and More to Follow Soon - Stainless steel producers throughout
the world are succeeding in securing higher prices, although there appears
to be no increase in underlying demand in most markets. -
more
Nickel producers
- With the dawning of a financial new year it's natural to ponder better
times ahead. But has the nickel price overshot the mark already as speculators
anticipate an uptick in demand which may not eventuate? -
more
Russia Norilsk
adds second state rep to board - Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel said
on Tuesday VTB deputy chief executive Vasily Titov will join its board of
directors, increasing the number of government-affiliated board representatives
to two. -
more
World mining outlook
grim, costs eat profit - Short-term prospects for global mining companies
are bleak, as rising costs eat into profit margins already depressed by the
recession, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). -
more
Spot moly oxide
trade picks up on South Korea on major tender - Spot molybdenum oxide trade
was active in South Korea this week after one steelmaker issued a tender
to buy 100-200 mt of molybdenum oxide, local market sources said Wednesday.
-
more
Iron ore talks go
into extra time - Though the annual iron ore pricing negotiations appears
to be delayed as both sides are in no mood to back off from their respective
stances, the country's steel industry does not seem to be too perturbed by
the fact. -
more
World's 3 largest iron ore mining giants bully China - As reported by the
"Global Times" on July 1, June 30 is the traditional deadline for iron ore
price negotiations. -
more
Mechel Announces
Commissioning the Fourth Electric Furnace at Tikhvin Ferroalloy Smelting
Plant - Mechel OAO, one of the leading Russian mining and metals companies,
announces that electric furnace No. 1 at Tikhvin Ferroalloy Smelting Plant
has been commissioned. -
more
Comparing
today's news to July 1, 2008 news from archives of this site
(2008) In the week ending June 28, 2008, domestic raw steel production
was 2,108,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 88.4 percent.
(2009) Monday - In the week ending June 27, 2009, domestic raw steel production
was 1,161,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 48.7 percent.
(2008) Lakshmi Mittal, head of steel giant ArcelorMittal, is looking
to enter the takeover battle for Rio, according to a report (unfounded rumor)
(2009) Yesterday - Chinalco likely to take up Rio Tinto rights
(2008) Nippon Steel Corp. and other leading Japanese steelmakers accepted
a 96.5 percent increase in Australian iron ore prices from Rio Tinto mining
group, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported from Tokyo in its Tuesday online
edition.
(2009) June 25 - Iron ore prices are down in 2009 for the first time in seven
years, with Nippon Steel Corp. and Rio Tinto Group agreeing to a 33 percent
cut.
(2008) Steel prices in China will see some upside going forward due
to an expected slowdown in growth of domestic capacity as well as quake-related
rebuilding demand, Fitch Ratings said.
(2009) Yesterday - The MEPS World Steel Prices Rises in June for First Time
in Eleven Months
(2008) Australian and London-listed Albidon Ltd. announced today that
its nickel sulfide project in Zambia has commenced production and is expected
to produce 10,000 tons to 10,500 tons of nickel concentrate by early 2009
for Jinchuan Group Ltd, its off-take partner and China's largest nickel producer.
(2009) June 12 - Zambia plans to re-open the Munali nickel mine within the
next month after the operation was suspended in March due to low nickel prices,
the mines minister of the southern African country said on Friday.
(2008) South Africa's Merafe Resources said on Tuesday that European
benchmark ferrochrome price were settled at a record level of $2.05 per pound
for the third quarter of 2008, up from $1.92 per pound in the second quarter
of 2008.
(2009) June 26 - The European contract price of charge ferrochrome surged
29 percent to 89 cents per pound for the third quarter of 2009, producers
said on Friday, but analysts said this was unlikely to be a big enough rise
to restart shut operations.
(2008) "Barclays Capital analyst Amrita Sen said demand for the commodity
has yet to peak -- which means this year's price increases will likely be
followed by more such gains. "The recent surge in steel prices can in no
sense be seen to have peaked, given the tightness in the scrap and raw material
market," the analyst wrote.
(2009) June 18 - "The macroeconomic data is still very mixed -- we are still
in a recession, even if the worst of it is well behind us now," said Amrita
Sen, commodity markets analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
(2008) Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "We are at $21,867
on nickel, down $83, and quiet; for now, $21,500 support seems to have held
yesterday."
(2009) Yesterday - Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - Nickel is at $15,865,
up $65. The market did mark a fresh 2009 high earlier today when it traded
at $16,075.
(2008) Oleg Deripaska's United Company Rusal won a third of the seats
on Norilsk Nickel's nine-man board at its annual meeting, strengthening the
Russian millionaire's position in a battle
to lead a merger to create one of the world's biggest metals and mining groups.
(2009) Today - Russian metals giant Norilsk Nickel said on Tuesday VTB deputy
chief executive Vasily Titov will join its board of directors, increasing
the number of government-affiliated board representatives to two.
(2008) Nippon Steel Corp. and other leading Japanese steelmakers accepted
a 96.5 percent increase in Australian iron ore prices from Rio Tinto mining
group, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported from Tokyo in its Tuesday online
edition.
(2009) Yesterday - Citing officials attending a closed meeting of the China
Iron and Steel Association on Tuesday, the magazine said China was still
expecting a better deal than the 33 percent reduction agreed by Rio Tinto
with Japanese steel mills.
(2008) Baltic Dry Index - minus 210 to 9,379.
(2009) Yesterday - Baltic Dry Index - plus 23 to 3,757.
(2008) LME Inventory of nickel - 46,692 tonnes
(2009) Yesterday - LME Inventory of NIckel - 109,242 tonnes
(2008) Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.78/lb
(2009) Yesterday - Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$6.96/lb
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
All prices shown on this page are indications only. "A Guide To
LME
Trading"...pdf here "The ABCs of a Metals Exchange"
...pdf here(Molybdenum
prices are for molybdenum oxide, an ingredient and major price factor in
316 stainless) (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated
daily before 8 am CST and before 1 pm CST weekdays -
DisclaimerCandlestick Pattern Dictionary
here / Intro to Candlesticks
here Original content and opinions copyright
www.estainlesssteel.com. Note - For real time and official
LME prices, LME requires a user subscribe to an authorized LME vendor.
Daily
Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up
(
, it's first time
over $8 since September of last year. LME inventories of nickel slumped again
overnight, and now rest under 106,000 tonnes. The Baltic Dry Index took another
hit, down 95 points to 3,350. And thus we bid farewell to July 2009. Nickel
closed last month at $6.96/lb and spent all but 4 days of July closing above
$7.00/lb. LME stored inventories started the month over 109,000 tonnes, and
ended the month under 106. Most analysts began the month fairly convinced
we would see a major correction in nickel pricing during the month, but the
bull refused to bow. A major strike began in Sudbury, Canada, with a second
starting this weekend at Voisey's Bay. BHP has reportedly put Ravensthorpe
on the market, the start-up of Goro was delayed temporarily ... again, the
construction of Ramu suffered delays... again, Ambatovy is caught up in political
upheaval .... again, and Santa Rita is scheduled to begin producing later
this year ... after it raises some money. The iron ore negotiations turned
from nasty to down right mean with Chinese officials arresting the Rio Tinto
team on espionage allegations. Xstrata wants to marry Anglo American, but
Anglo says no. Overall economic news either got better during the month,
or remained "less bad". Today, the Chicago purchasing managers index rose
to 43.4% in July. It was a month of renewed optimism coming from many corners
of the globe. Let's hope it continues.
Reports
Nickel prices
push up as premiums rangebound on uncertain demand - As nickel futures prices
relentlessly continue to defy gravity, making a determined effort to follow
the rest of the base metals complex on the London Metal Exchange on their
march to higher numbers, traders and producers in Europe paint a mixed picture
regarding physical demand for the metal, according to sources contacted by
Platts this week. -
Vale Voisey’s
Bay Nickel Workers Say They’ll Strike at Midnight - Vale SA’s Canadian
nickel workers at the Voisey’s Bay mine say they will begin a strike
at midnight after failing to clinch a labor agreement. -
Rusina Mining
says heap leach trial complete at Acoje nickel project, Philippines - Rusina
Mining NL said the heap leach trial (HLT) at the Acoje nickel project in
the Philippines is now mechanically complete, and 3,000 tonnes of laterite
ore is in the process of being crushed for the pad. -
Analysis-Will China
metal stocks "time bomb" detonate on credit? - Traders fearing that China's
record copper, aluminium and nickel imports might suddenly reverse course
should probably be watching data on the domestic supply of money, not metal.
- 
ENRC says to
withdraw from China Gateway project - Kazakh miner Eurasian Natural Resources
Corporation Plc is to withdraw from the 'China Gateway Project', a concession
to build a rail link between China and Kazakhstan. -
China steel body
threatens to enforce single price - China's steel industry body threatened
new rules to enforce a single price for iron ore, as it struggles to regain
control of marathon contract price talks with global miners in which it vowed
to achieve a "reasonable result". -
Hannans in a
deal to buy land from Kagara, St Barbara - Junior minerals explorer Hannans
Reward Ltd has done a deal with Kagara Ltd and St Barbara Ltd to buy unexplored
ground considered prospective for nickel and gold in Western Australia. -
Commodity/Economic Comments
Recovery In Stainless
Steel Production But No Bonanza In Sight - A recovery in the stainless steel
sector is underway. World steel production in the second half of this year
will be significantly higher than in the first six months. -
Sumitomo Metal Widens
Loss Forecast on Seamless Pipes - Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd.,
Japan’s third-biggest steelmaker, more than doubled its forecast for
a loss this fiscal year because of a delayed recovery in export markets for
pipes used in oil and gas production. -
Carpenter Technology
sales down; auto takes biggest hit - Carpenter Technology Corp. today reported
that sales of its specialty stainless steel and other metals were down 54
percent in the fourth quarter. -
New Caledonia
Nickel Plant to Cut 500 Jobs – The French Eramet company says its
nickel-producing SLN subsidiary in New Caledonia should ideally shed 500
jobs by 2012. -
US Employment
- certain sectors since Jan 1999 thru June 2009 - not seasonally adjusted
(source - BLS)
China launches
dispute with EU over screw imports - China launched its first trade dispute
against the European Union on Friday, complaining that anti-dumping duties
imposed on imported Chinese screws and bolts are discriminatory and
protectionist. -
Sudbury Nickel Strike Coverage
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
Indonesia Inco
Q2 net slumps, plans cost cuts - PT International Nickel Indonesia on Thursday
said it would improve efficiency after posting an 89 percent plunge in
second-quarter net profit due to lower prices and weak demand in the economic
slowdown. -
Sherritt's
Madagascar mine hits new snag - Sherritt International Corp.'s troubled
nickel project in Madagascar faces a major stumbling block after a legal
firm hired by the country's new president said the certification for the
$4.5-billion (U.S.) mine may be invalid. -
POSCO May Emerge
as Major Player in M&A Market - A tumble in profits for the latest quarter
doesn't appear to be a major hurdle to POSCO's merger and acquisition attempts.
- 
ArcelorMittal
CEO says steel business is recovering, posts third straight quarterly loss
- The world's largest steel maker, ArcelorMittal SA, on Wednesday reported
a loss of US$792 million for the second quarter, its third consecutive quarterly
loss, but said demand was recovering and that it would increase production.
-
European stainless
steel surcharges for August
Mirabela Nickel
plans share offering for Santa Rita cost overruns - Mirabela Nickel is planning
another round of capital raising to pay for cost overruns at its flagship
Santa Rita nickel project in Brazil, the Australian nickel producer said
Tuesday. -
Chinese firm takes
over Zambia nickel mine in Aug - China's largest nickel producer Jinchuan
Group Ltd. will take over Zambia's sole nickel mine Munali next month after
the operations were suspended in March due to low nickel prices, the mines
minister said on Wednesday. -
JSL posts Rs 95-cr
profit in Q1 - Ratan Jindal-led stainless steel firm JSL’s net profit
more than trebled to Rs 95 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2009,
over the same period a year ago on the back of increased demand and productivity
at its plant in Hissar (Haryana). -
Merafe Resources
Says 1st Half Ferrochrome Production Falls 60% - Merafe Resources Ltd. Tuesday
said ferrochrome production at its joint venture with Xstrata PLC fell 60%
in the first half of the year after it idled furnaces in response to a sharp
fall in demand for the stainless steel ingredient. -
PNG stops Ramu nickel
project over safety - Construction of Papua New Guinea's Ramu nickel mine
and processing plant has been stopped due to health and safety concerns,
PNG's chief mines inspector said in a statement on Tuesday. -
Stability in steel
prices to continue in the short term - Steel prices in the Middle East continues
to remain stable amid minor fluctuations with rebar priced between $460 (Dh1,689)
and $480 per tonne. -
Iran Produces Low-Cost
Nickel Oxide Nanoparticles - Findings of a new study revealed a new method
for practical and low-cost synthesis of nickel oxide nanoparticles for alkaline
batteries. -
Putin pledges steps
to support steel sector - Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pledged
on Friday to help the country's steel sector by stimulating demand for metals
and taking steps to offset protectionism in other countries. -
Outokumpu swings
to Q2 loss, outlook disappoints - Finnish stainless steel maker Outokumpu
posted a smaller than expected second-quarter loss on cost cuts and higher
prices and volumes but its outlook disappointed, knocking its shares on Thursday.
-
Platts News Feature
- Tide turning after price famine in steel alloying agents - Looking at the
roller-coaster fortunes of the steel industry over the last year, it comes
as no surprise to those supplying steelmakers with raw materials that their
own destinies have been turned upside down by the financial turmoil of the
last eight months. -
Taiwan's China
Steel to restart furnace sooner - China Steel, Taiwan's top steel maker,
plans to resume operations of a key blast furnace earlier than planned due
to steady global prices as inventories were digested after demand picked
up. -
(
S.Korea's POSCO
buys Vietnam stainless steel firm - South Korean steelmaker POSCO on Friday
said it would buy a 90 percent stake in a Vietnamese stainless steel processing
company as it seeks to secure a stable customer base for its stainless steel
business. -
China eyes Pakistan
steel sector - China Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC), which
already runs a copper mine in Pakistan's Balochistan province, is showing
renewed interest in expanding and modernizing Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM),
the country's only integrated steel-manufacturing plant, at a cost of US$2.2
billion -
Vale/Inco and USW
negotiation sites -
European Nickel
cancels off-take agreement with BHP - European Nickel said Wednesday it will
be released from all its obligation under the off-take agreement inked with
BHP Billiton in relation to the Caldag project in Turkey, announced in June
2006. -
ThyssenKrupp Mulls
Dropping US Stainless Steel Plant Plans -- German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp
AG is thinking about dropping plans for its stainless steel plant in the
U.S., but it hasn't made a decision yet, a spokesman for the company's steel
division told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday. -
World nickel stocks
still high - Eramet - Global nickel inventories remain above "normal" levels,
an executive from French mining group Eramet said on Wednesday, keeping up
pressure on the metal's price. -
African Eagle
to seek investor for Tanzania nickel project - African Eagle Resources Plc
will seek a partner for its Dutwa nickel project in Tanzania in about a year,
South Africa's Business Day reported, quoting the company's operations director,
Mr Christopher Davies. -
Base Metals Handbook
-
Under-mining:
Plant in southern Armenia resumes amid worker concerns - A copper-molybdenum
plant in southern Armenia that ground to a halt last year influenced by the
unfavorable world market situation and the broader global economic slowdown
has resumed operations this week -
