Updated twice daily before 8:00 am CST and by 1 pm CST

• Baltic Dry Index -  minus 10 to 9589. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Here are some figures for the half way point of 2008. MF Global puts nickel support at $9.75/lb and resistance at $11.75/lb. So far this year, cash nickel has averaged $12.40/lb and three month nickel has averaged $12.50/lb (thru 6/26). The high point for nickel this year has been $15.94/lb and the low point has been $9.69/lb. Last year nickel averaged $16.55/lb.
• The US dollar started off quiet early and then rose on news that "the euro zone harmonised index of consumer prices rose a provisional 4.0 percent year-on-year in June compared with a year-on-year rise of 3.7 percent in May". Most analysts and traders are now betting the ECB will raise interest rates on Thursday from 4% to 4.25%. Metals were mixed and quiet on this last day of the quarter. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.93/lb . Today wraps up the second quarter of 2008 metals trading, and marks the 1/2 way point in the calendar year.  

  Reports

• TD Bank Weekly Commodities Report - pdf here
• ASSDA Summer 2008 Magazine - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Commodities are heading for their best first half in 35 years. The next six months may not be as rewarding because record prices for oil, copper and a dozen other raw materials may crimp consumption and encourage growth in supply. - more

  Two Chinese steel companies combined Monday to form the world's fifth-largest producer, the latest in a series of government-orchestrated deals aimed at creating globally competitive suppliers amid booming demand. - more

  JSC MMC Norilsk Nickel chairman Andrei Klishas said shareholders elected three independent directors to the new nine-member board, Interfax reported. - more

• Billionaire Vladimir Potanin retained the largest representation on OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel's board after an investor vote, supporting his attempt to merge Russia's biggest mining company with two competitors. - more

  Canada’s Federal Government Making a Mess of Aboriginal Land Claims and Mining Issues - Gregory Reynolds - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.07/lb lower. Final day of the month and quarter, so we doubt much will happen in the last few hours of trading. Oil has already set a new record high today. Dollar started out soft this morning but has rebounded since.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more
• Congratulations to Germany and Spain for making it to the European Cup finals this past weekend, and Spain for taking this years championship.

  No Significant Increase in Stainless Steel Output Expected This Year - Demand for stainless steel is weakening in most parts of the world. MEPS (International) Ltd forecasts global crude production virtually unchanged at 28 million tonnes in 2008. Western World output is expected to decline by 300,000 tonnes this year. - more

  Reports

• BNP Paribas Markets Data - here
• KBC Commodities report - pdf here
• Haywood Metals & Mining Weekly - pdf here
• Nickel Week in Review - here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "LME prices ended mostly on a stronger note on Friday, with copper rising to two-month highs, boosted by impending strike action in Peru and another weak session for the dollar. In fact, the dollar’s poor finish against the Euro sparked a record run in energy, and also lead to good gains in precious metals. Equity markets continue to wilt, as the divergence with commodities widens. ... We are at $21,800 on nickel, down $150, and hovering just above key $21,500. A break below that level could prove serious, as our chart below shows."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• The Realities of this Secular Bull Market in Commodities - more

  World market price of chrome has continued to rise. Average spot price of low-carbon ferrochromium in the free European market has risen over the last days. - more

  China Increases Again Ratio Of 300 Series Stainless Steel Production = Reflecting Lower Nickel Price, Ratio Of 300 Series Products Is Anticipated To Share Level Of 60% In 2008 - more

• Chinese media - #1 molybdenum, with a purity greater than 99%, was priced thru most of June in China for 520-560 CNY/kg. Last Thursday, the market price slumped to 490-530 CNY/kg.

  Provincial authorities in New Caledonia have agreed to begin talks with the French metals mining group, Eramet, on taking over its local unit. - more

  Finnish stainless steel major Outokumpu plans to invest Rs 1,000 crore for setting up a cold rolling (CR) mill in Western India with a capacity of 2.5 lakh tons. - more

  The Department of Environment and Natural Resources has granted an environmental compliance certificate (ECC) to Citinickel Mines and Development Corp. in connection with its Pulot Nickel Mining Project in three barangays in Sofronio Española town in Palawan, according to a DENR press release. - more

• Platinum Group Metals Corp. will spend $2 million for improvements in its two ferronickel smelting plants in Iligan City and Misamis Oriental. - more
• Mining firm Platinum Group Metals Corp. is set to ship 450,000 metric tons of nickel ore to Australia from its mine sites in Surigao del Norte and Isabela in the third quarter. - more

  Global steel prices are set to fall steeply this year, bringing to an abrupt end a remarkable boom for the world steel industry, according to Peter Marcus, a leading industry consultant . - more

  Potanin and Vekselberg Teach Depriska the Classics - Trojan horse in reverse — Vekselberg & Potanin attack Rusal - more

• Vladimir Putin is no slouch. So when he says that he advised BP and its Russian billionaire partners not to set up a 50-50 joint venture, you have to think he is on to something. - more
• Kolskaya GMK, regional subsidiary of Norilsk Nickel in the Kola Peninsula, has completed the second development phase of its Severny Glubokii (“Northern Deep”) mine in Zapolyary, close to the Norwegian border. - more

  Indian-owned European steelmaker Corus has stepped up its campaign against BHP Billiton's attempt to take over mining rival Rio Tinto, complaining to the European Union about it. - more

  Vale Inco's demonstration hydrometallurgical plant in Argentia will close today. The company opened the plant in 2005 to study the hydromet technology for use at the proposed commercial nickel processing plant in Long Harbour. Many of the employees have been transferred to Vale Inco's other operations in Canada and New Caledonia. The company says it will maintain the Argentia plant for training purposes.

• Canadians shouldn't be fooled by high commodity prices into thinking their economy is on the right track because, in fact, it is slipping badly in comparison with other rich countries, a report said on Monday. - more

  ANGLO American Corporation plc, the number one producer of platinum in the world says it is planning to invest a further US$400 million into Unki Platinum Mine in the Midlands Province. - more

  Kill bad breath with stainless steel lollipop - Nothing’ says clean breath like sucking on stainless steel. That’s right. Stainless steel. - more (We've posted about this concept before, now someone is marketing a product to capitalize.)

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - Jun 30 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge.

• Baltic Dry Index - plus 126 to 9,599. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Markets were quiet today, with the dollar apparently the catalyst to metals movements. You could almost flip the dollar chart over and get an idea of what the nickel indicator chart looked like. As the trading day in Europe came to a close, the dollar was rebounding, although still down, and metals were mixed...but just slightly. Nickel traded within an approximately $300/tonne range, up and down, and according to Dow Jones, three month nickel ended the day and week at $9.95/lb    
• Have a safe and restful weekend!!
• Australia's answer to the Budweiser frog? (rude and crude but humorous) - video here

  Top five destinations for Chinese cold/hot rolled stainless steel in May 2008 (according to Chinese media report)

• Hot rolled - Italy, Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, Belgium
• Cold rolled - Italy, USA, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea

  Increased global inflation and rising interest rates will crimp demand for base metals by the year end, but supply constraints, strong emerging market demand and high production costs will keep metal price floors at higher levels than ever before, Barclays Capital said on Thursday. - more

  Canada-based MBMI Resources has shipped 100,000 metric tons (MT) of nickel ore from the Alpha project in Palawan to China and Japan and is expected to ship 140,000 MT more to Asian markets. - more

  Making Sustainability part of Vale’s DNA by Renato Amorim – Vale Director of International Public Affairs - more

• Rick Grylls - Local 598 President - Disputes Sudbury Soil Study by Bill Bradley - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around  $.02/lb lower. Dollar is lower, but very volatile. Metals are a mixed bag, with no major movements in any of them. LME nickel inventories take a big jump overnight, on the first large shipment received into Rotterdam in quite a few weeks.    
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - more

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "Metal prices raced higher yesterday mainly on the back of a weaker dollar, which fell for a second day in a row to three-week lows, this after the Federal Reserve's rather uncertain view (as reflected in Wednesday's policy statement) of when it intended to move on interest rates. This morning, the tone in metals is more restrained-- the group is holding steady, but so far, not resuming another sharp advance along the lines of what we are seeing in energy and precious metals, both of which are up much higher today. Sizeable stock increases on some of the LME metals are perhaps weighing on sentiment. .... We are at $21,800 on nickel, and unchanged, but hovering just above key $21,500, which held earlier this week. Cleary, nickel seems to be the weakest in the metals group." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)

  Russian media - Largest Chinese manufacturer of stainless steel, Taiyuan Iron & Steel, will keep prices unchanged on 300 and 400 grades of stainless steel in July. Production of crude steel in July will be decreased by 25% and will amount to 150,000 tonnes.

  Three of the biggest names able to attract mining speculators came together yesterday when Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest persuaded US investor Philip A. Falcone to put $US50 million ($52 million) into the Poseidon Nickel venture to try to build Australia's third-biggest nickel mine. - more

  (quote from investor update) A weakening in nickel prices, as well as for direct shipping ore (DSO) feedstock for Chinese nickel pig iron furnaces, was previously noted by Mindoro (news release dated May 27, 2008). Nickel prices seem likely to firm once the Chinese stainless steel industry resumes its anticipated strong growth later this year, and the option to commence a DSO operation, currently on hold, will be kept open. - more

  In our recent interview with Charles Swindon, chairman of the Minor Metals Trade Association, Mr. Swindon noted that - with the LME's board having appointed someone to look into this very question - cobalt, molybdenum and ferro-chrome were, indeed, "possibilities" for LME trading. - more

• Molybdenum metal is not an exchange traded metal. This means that there is no central market, such as the London Metals Exchange (LME), where a buyer or seller of molybdenum can go to buy a contract for the future delivery or sale of molybdenum at a fixed or known price. - more

  China's iron ore imports surged during the first four months of this year as users sought to avoid anticipated higher costs, official figures show. - more

• The China Iron and Steel Association said Friday it opposed the use of an iron ore index to determine prices for term contracts. - more

  Courtesy SteelGuru.com - "Statistics from China Nonferrous Industry Association showed that the domestic production of nickel concentrate was 7,792 tonnes in May up by 31.5%MoM. While the production of January to May 2008 was 27,204 tonnes down by 2.95% YoY as compared to January to May 2007. The nickel production was 6,100 tonnes in Gansu, increased by 2,202 tons, 390 tonnes in Jilin, 130 tonnes in Xinjiang and 172 tonnes in Yunnan."

  Eramet ruled out any change to the capital structure of its Societe le Nickel unit in New Caledonia, rejecting a call by the three provinces of the French overseas territory to increase their 34 percent holding to a majority stake.  - more

  Analyst History - How did they do?

• Bloomberg Feb 5, 2007 - "When it comes to nickel, the best performing commodity the past 13 months, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is determined to prove Deutsche Bank AG is full of so much hot air...The market is ``over-inflated,'' says Jon Bergtheil, the head of global metals strategy at JPMorgan in London and an industry analyst for three decades. ``Nickel's fall will be worse than the pace copper has seen,'' dropping at least 25 percent this year, he said. Nonsense, says Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Lewis, who told customers on Jan. 12 that nickel is the favorite pick among industrial metals because producers can't keep up with demand. Germany's biggest bank raised its forecast for average nickel prices to about $31,500 in 2007 and to $31,000 in 2008. Nickel in 2006 averaged about $24,150. ``The ramp-up in Chinese stainless steel capacity in 2007- 08 is now expected to sustain strong demand growth for nickel at elevated levels,'' the bank said in a report"
• So who was right? Both actually. On Feb 5th, when this article was published, 3 month nickel closed at $16.17/lb. It reached $23.50/lb 4 months later, and then plummeted, ending the year at $11.91/lb. So JP Morgan can claim they were right. However, had you sold when they forecast the collapse, you would have missed out on three more months of climbing prices. For the year of 2007, 3 month nickel averaged even higher than the more bullish Deutsche Bank forecast. So they too could claim they were not only right, but a little too pessimistic themselves. Had you held throughout the entire year, though, you could have seen most of your spring time gains evaporate by the end of the year.  

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• London Metal Exchange inventory changes - most days  available this daily report under nickel here (archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - Jun 27 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge.

• Baltic Dry Index -  plus 229 to 9,473. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• The dollar started its most recent slide against the Euro after the Fed announcement yesterday, and continued that direction throughout today's trading session. Metals, both precious and industrial, traded in the green throughout the day. Nickel also ended up, although according to the indicator charts, stumbled sharply at one point. Rising nearly $450/tonne, it fell around $600 tonne in late afternoon trading, only to creep back into the green. According to Dow Jones, three months nickel ended the day at $9.89/lb . With Friday and Monday's trading rounding out the second quarter of trading, without some unexpected supply/demand news, we could see traders cleaning up their portfolio's over the next few days, which "usually" means a tamed market. That being said, "usually" carries little weight in today's market.  
• Globe and Mail - more

  Commodity Comments

• The price of commodities face a "correction" after a seven-year rally, which will help ease global inflation, reported Bloomberg quoting investment guru Marc Faber. "Commodity prices will come down in the next six months to one year," Faber, said at a briefing in Taipei today. Commodity prices will resume their gains after the correction, he said, with demand for oil doubling in the next 12 years. ..."It doesn't mean I am bearish about commodities. I think commodity bull markets will last about 20 years," he said. (source)

  Cia. Vale do Rio Doce fell for the first time in four days in Sao Paulo trading after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said the world's largest iron-ore producer may revive its takeover offer for Xstrata Plc. - more

  A series of powerful explosions rocked the sites in Barangay Guinabon and Guisguis in Sta. Cruz, Zambales of a mining firm engaged in extracting chromite and ore in separate sites shortly before dawn Wednesday, police said Thursday. - more

  Honourable Kevin Kruger – British Columbia Minister of State for Mining – The Canadian Institute Keynote Address in Vancouver - more

  A three-year wage deal was reached between employers and unions in the metal industry, the Metal and Engineering Bargaining Council said on Thursday. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.18/lb higher. This is how yesterday afternoon in the US ended - The Fed, as expected, kept its key, short-term interest rate at 2%, noting they expect slow economic growth ahead, while “upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased.”. In Europe, the European Central Bank's president clarified some earlier comments on the continent's monetary policy by stating that interest rates may, or may not, rise in the months ahead. This bolstered the Euro, and the dollar took a nosedive in yesterday's afternoon trading. This is how this morning in Europe started. Marketwatch - "Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, who serves as president of OPEC, on Thursday said oil prices could jump as high as $150-$170 dollars a barrel this summer according to reports. However, he thinks crude will fall short of $200 a barrel. At a meeting in Paris, Khelil said a further fall of 1% to 2% of the dollar verses the euro could add another $8 a barrel to oil prices. He cited the weakness of the greenback as a major cause of spiking oil prices." Trading so far sees the metals complex trading green across the board, the dollar continues to slide, and oil is up. Market is trading for inflation, and indirectly, helping cause even higher inflation.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more

  Reports

• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• Daily Resource - here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals all closed lower yesterday heading into the Fed statement, but we are making amends today, with the group broadly higher. Again, there is very little behind today’s improved tone, except for the dollar, which failed badly in the aftermath of the Fed decision late yesterday, thus setting up the stage for today’s advance after the Far East markets opened. ... In LME news, the exchange said that it would significantly extend prompt dates for aluminum, copper, zinc, nickel and lead futures from Sept. 29th.  ... The hope is that banks will now use the LME more than they are doing, and transfer more over-the-counter exposure that would normally sit on their balance sheets onto the Clearing House. ... We are at $22,150 on nickel, up $450, and seeing something of decent bounce today off key support of $21,500, which held earlier this week. However, we continue to remain cautious on nickel’s upside potential." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• On the other hand, in a single step tomorrow --- closing the Enron Loophole --- Congress and George Bush could create an overnight drop in oil prices of between 25 and 50 percent. This is according to testimony before a Senate Committee two weeks ago by Michael Greenberger, the former director of Trading & Markets for the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC), the government board that oversees commodities markets. - more
• A normal three-year cycle or a super-cycle in commodities that could last another 10 years? It's a big question in financial markets, which splits those who believe current commodities prices are a result of genuine scarcity and massive demand from emerging economies, and those who blame the enormous speculation in the market for pushing up prices and dislocating the real demand/supply picture. - more
• THOSE pilgrim puritans are at it again, threatening to ban, regulate and smother all forms of risk-taking. After adultery, booze, ciggies and online poker, North Americans have invented a new vice, and its home is the New York Mercantile Exchange. - more

  The London Metal Exchange, the world's largest marketplace for copper, lengthened the maturity of some futures contracts to as much as 10 years. - more

• The London Metal Exchange prompt dates for primary aluminium, copper, zinc, nickel and lead futures contracts have been extended from September 29, 2008. - more
• Governments would be foolish to limit participation in commodity markets and curb speculation because prices were based on supply and demand, the London Metal Exchange (LME) chief executive, Martin Abbott, said yesterday. - more

  The price of steel-making raw materials such as iron ore, coal and scrap metal will continue to rise for several years, keeping pressure on manufacturers and consumers, the head of U.S. steel maker Nucor Corp. said Wednesday. - more

  Outokumpu Oyj (News) said it has agreed to acquire Avesta Klippcenter AB, a Swedish processor of stainless steel, for an undisclosed sum. - more

  Politicians in New Caledonia’s southern province are split over a suggestion to give the territory a controlling stake in the SLN nickel company, which is the largest private sector employer. - more

• Harold Martin, president of of New Caledonia, said he wants Eramet unit Societe Le Nickel to be awarded the licence for a giant nickel deposit in the French overseas territory. - more
• Couple of articles in French - here and here

  Soviet geologists were looking for oil when exploring this region 500 km (315 miles) south of Moscow. - more

  Big steelmakers in China on Tuesday shrugged off the impact of Monday's record rise in iron ore prices, but the higher prices could increase cost pressures on smaller mills and hasten consolidation in the industry. - more

  China Steel Corporation (CSC), Taiwan`s largest integrated producer of steel products, will call a third-quarter production/sales meeting to decide export prices tomorrow. It is expected the company will broadly raise product export prices at the meeting. - more

  International Power Plc and CIC Energy Corp. failed to agree on terms with a construction contractor, forcing them to consider cutting the size of a planned $9.5 billion power plant in Botswana and further pressuring electricity supplies in southern Africa. - more

  Ok here is your stainless steel test for the day. Take a look at this sculpture, make note of it's size, and then estimate what it might be worth. Photo here  Remember last last year, when we showed you the "Hanging Heart" sculpture by this artist that was sold for $23 million dollars, making Koons the world's most expensive living artist at auction. Well, according to Art Info, this piece is now his most profitable piece. Sold at a private auction in April, the stainless bunny brought a whooping $80,000,000. (source)  (comment - he is helping prove that stainless steel artwork is chic)

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• London Metal Exchange inventory changes - most days  available this daily report under nickel here (archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - Jun 26 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge.

• Baltic Dry Index -  plus 105 to 9,244. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• VEry quiet day ahead of the FOMC announcement. FX reports - "...the dollar maintaining its steady tone despite a continued barrage of hawkish ECB comments on inflation ahead of its policy meeting next Thursday (July 3)". Forex pros reports "Ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting results, the EUR/USD is trading inside of a tight range." The chart in our lower right hand corner shows the dollar off just a shade, with metals trading quietly mixed. The general consensus among the market is the US Fed will leave interest rates alone. They really can't afford to lower the rates anymore than they have, to combat the economic slowdown, or they will add more inflationary pressure. And they can't afford to address the inflationary worries, by raising interest rates, or they could do more damage to the struggling economy. If we see a change made in the interest rate either way, we can expect an immediate response from the market. The announcement will be made at 2:15 pm EST, after we post this wrap-up. Nickel opened trading higher today, and according to indicator charts, spent the day trading in a fairly tight range. According to Dow Jones, three month nickel ended the day at $9.94/lb .  
• Reuters - more 

  Reports

• AISI May import figures - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Metals Insider -  China - "These continued high (nickel) ore imports levels suggest that there remains good demand from the nickel pig iron production sector, despite a lot of speculation that parts of it were closing due to a combination of lower nickel prices and government clampdown."

  China's Baosteel said on Tuesday it would nearly double the price it pays mining group Rio Tinto for iron ore, in a deal experts said underscored the Asian giant's lynchpin role in the commodity boom. - more

  A nickel mining partnership between BHP Billiton and an Indonesian firm in a protected island paradise has "strategic" importance and should proceed, Indonesia's investment chief said Wednesday. - more

  Nonferrous metallurgy is one of the most important industries for the Russian economy. It is probably the only area in which the country determines the world market situation. - more

  More Women Needed in the Mining Sector - more  (comment - since one of the nickel miner union's won free Viagra prescriptions in their last contract, these women may need combat pay)

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.09/lb higher.   
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Forbes - more
• Reuters - more

  Reports

• MF Global Base Metals Outlook June 2008 - here (use Internet Explorer browser, Firefox does work properly)
• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - here
• Germany - ThyssenKrupp Nirosta issues July surcharges - here
• Germany - Deutsche Edelstahlwerke GmbH issues July surcharges - pdf here
• Finland - Outokumpu issues July AAF - pdf here
• Tropical Storm Fengshen has struck the Chinese mainland - current map

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "LME markets finished lower yesterday despite a struggling dollar, as a round of profit -taking set in and overrode the impact of the currency. Yesterday’s macro data did not inspire the markets much either, with US housing prices continuing to suffer record drops in April, while US consumer confidence readings plunged to 16-year lows....We thought the selling we saw yesterday in metals was somewhat justified in light of the good run higher we have had, particularly in copper and ali, both of which have been pushing higher in recent weeks despite rather comfortable supply/demand backdrops. Moreover, the Fed meets later today, and this undoubtedly sent many players to the sidelines yesterday, as it is doing right now, where we are seeing a mixed tone amid quiet conditions....As we wrote in yesterday’s note, we suspect that the Fed’s language will emphasize inflation dangers as opposed to weaker growth conditions, so we do not expect them to signal a possible resumption of interest rate cuts. If our analysis is correct, we suspect the dollar should strengthen in the wake of the meeting and result in additional pressure on metals for the balance of the week.... We are at $21,650 on nickel, up $150; support at $21,500 held yesterday, but just barely. Nickel looks like it is the weakest in the group, as demand remains extremely sluggish."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Dow Jones - "The base metals market is waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve's statement on the economy due later Wednesday, with little activity expected prior to this......  Trading conditions on the London Metal Exchange are subdued as a result, with prices drifting sideways to lower through the session."

  One of China's biggest corporations admits that it has been on a steep learning curve since it began to build an $1 billion nickel mine in Papua New Guinea. - more

  It is reported that the Sichuan Tianyi Metallurgy Group has commenced construction on the first stage of its 200 000 tonne per year ferrochrome project in Qinghai province. - more

  South Korean steel giant POSCO said Wednesday that it is holding talks with North Korea on acquiring iron ore and other raw materials. - more

  Chinese government and steel industry officials are considering a boycott of iron ore imports from Australian miner BHP Billiton, the last bastion in term iron ore price negotiations, two informed Chinese sources said. - more

  US Steel has no near-term plans to acquire either a scrap processor or a majority stake in metallurgical coal, despite continued concern over raw material supply, said John Surma, chairman and CEO of the US-based steel producer. - more

  Xstrata Nickel and the Wahnapitae First Nation got it right last week when they signed an agreement to work together on a host of issues. - more

  Matt Cooke is chief executive of the Nhulundu Health Service in Gladstone, Queensland and was one of the speakers at the National Reconciliation Forum in Kalgoorlie-Boulder this month. - more

  Virtual tour of Valbruna Stainless Steel - here

  Fastener industry expert Phil Matten has delivered a hard-hitting analysis of the factors propelling the cost of all types of steel fasteners along the steepest inflationary track witnessed in decades. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• London Metal Exchange inventory changes - most days  available this daily report under nickel here (archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - Jun 25 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge.

• Baltic Dry Index -  minus 72 to 9,139. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Consumer confidence slid further than expected and US housing prices continued their slide. While noted, metals traders have their eyes on the US Fed meeting report tomorrow. Marketwatch noted, "After two-day meeting wraps up Wednesday, Chairman Bernanke and fellow policy-makers will tread carefully in their statement on whether fighting a slowdown or inflation is No. 1 priority." On the back of the gloomy economic news, the dollar was down today. Metals did not follow, as higher commodity prices in general, seem to be giving some pause about the overall economic health and future demand. As we publish the afternoon wrap-up, only gold is ever so slightly higher, with the rest of the base and precious metals complex lower. Even a 438 tonne withdrawal from LME warehouses overnight could not keep nickel up, and according to Dow Jones, three month nickel ended the day at $9.75/lb   Interesting article below about Russia flexing its military muscles over Arctic resources. 44 days till the Beijing Olympics begin.  

  Reports

• Behre Dolbear Global Mining News - here
• American Stainless Pipeline News - pdf here

  South Korea's POSCO, the world's No.4 steel maker, said on Tuesday it would raise steel prices by up to 21 percent to absorb higher raw material costs and bring its prices closer to international levels. - more

  Mining major BHP Billiton Tuesday gave its clearest indication to date that it will move away from annually priced iron ore contracts in favor of an external reference index-correlated pricing system after its current agreements expire, attendees at a London briefing were told. - more

  The uncertainty on political horizon and upsurge in the period of power outages during the current year has affected all sectors of the industry in Pakistan and the stainless steel is one of the worst victims. - more

  Except Mayotte with about 10% of growth in 2007, New Caledonia distinguishes itself overseas in the. His/her/its economy is very well. Still thanks to the nickel. - translated article here original version here

  Russia's military is training its forces for combat in the Arctic to protect its claims to resources on the continental shelf. - more

  The Davao Oriental business sector has joined the clamor on calling for the start of the operations of the Pujada nickel project. - more

  Commodity Comments

• China - POSCO's integrated stainless steel plant in the Chinese city of Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu Province is the third largest in China after the Taiyuan Iron and Steel and Baoshan Steel Works. The plant employs over 1,800 Chinese workers from 20 provinces.
• Scotia Capital China Update - "We estimate the hike in both oil products and power prices will increase China’s average steel production costs by some RMB80 (US$11.60/tonne)....Latest data shows that in the first five months of 2008, China produced 68,055 tonnes of molybdenum (45% Mo), up 20.66% YOY. In terms of trade, China exported 2,022 tonnes of molybdenum (metal content) in May, the lowest level since October 2007....In May, China imported 11,037 tonnes of refined nickel, up 58.06% YOY. In the first five months as a whole, China’s refined nickel imports grew 24.49% YOY to 57,501 tonnes.. Despite high inventories, China’s low-grade nickel ore imports remained strong at 2.029 million tonnes in May. In the first five months, China imported 7.58 million tonnes of nickel ore, up 39.94% YOY. In terms of geographic breakdown, imports from Indonesia were at 5.28 million tonnes, up 115.65% YOY, while imports from the Philippines were at 1.95 million tonnes, down 21.16% YOY."

  Vietnam Ministry of Finance Tax Policy Department raised export tax on nickel and nickel powder to 20% effective June 16th.

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.02/lb lower. US dollar is lower against the Euro this morning, and while precious metals are trading higher, the base metals are lower. Sucden's graph shows yesterday's down trend - here   (If the constantly changing format has you trying to figure this chart out, you aren't alone. Apparently over the weekend, they have changed the chart to show candlesticks in two hour increments, not by day as before. While the changes can be confusing, it's still one of the best free charts we have found.)   
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more
• Thomson Financial - more

  Reports

• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - here
• TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price Report - pdf here
• Reuters Metals Weekly - pdf here
• Fortis Metals Monthly - pdf here
• Fortis Asian Metals Monthly - pdf here
• BHP Steelmaking Materials Briefing - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "LME prices finished modestly lower yesterday, but in the case of ali and copper, prices still managed to take out key resistance levels for a second day in a row, solidifying the technical profiles somewhat further. However, the stronger dollar limited yesterday’s gains, as did a fading energy complex, which although closing higher, finished well off its earlier highs. This morning, we are lower again in a very quiet session. We do not expect to see much action over the next twenty-four hours leading up to the key Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. ...We are at $21,800 on nickel, down $50, and fading towards the bottom end of the range; key support is at $21,500. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Sucden's Technical Analysis Nickel Chart thru yesterday - here
• Chinese article from 6/18 - (we re-worded to make understandable) "Since the beginning of June, and the approach of the Olympic ceremonies, Chinese law enforcement agencies have begun a crack down on those illegally transporting dangerous goods in the country, such as explosives, and detonators. Since much of this is destined for mining operations, this crackdown could lead to tighter supplies of mineral raw material in the coming weeks. Some customers, in order to maintain normal production thru the Olympic period, have begun to stockpile these raw materials, further exacerbating increasing prices in all kinds of raw materials."

  Mysteel learned from their gathering meeting in Guangzhou on June 19th 2008 that the stainless steelmakers failed to make consensus on the extent of July EXW price rise. - more

  Due to volatility of nickel price in 2007, most stainless steel mills cut austenitic stainless steel output and instead increased ferritic stainless steel production by around 30 percent. Obviously, the issue on fluctuation of nickel price has made most mills unable to maintain their profitability. - more

  The two main unions representing workers at Eramet's Societe le Nickel unit in New Caledonia believe the company will be unable to reach its production target of 75,000 tonnes a year. - more

  Mirabela Nickel Ltd., building the world's third-largest open-pit nickel mine in Brazil, said construction of the project is 30 percent complete with first output expected in mid-2009. - more

  Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending June 21, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,076,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 87.0 percent. Production was 2,119,000 tons in the week ending June 21, 2007, while the capability utilization then was 88.6 percent. The current week production represents a 2.0 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending June 21, 2008 is down 1.1 percent from the previous week ending June 14, 2008 when production was 2,101,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 88.1 percent."

  2001 report by US EPA titled "Report on the Corrosion of Certain Alloys" - (stainless section starts at page 12) - 71 page pdf report here

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• London Metal Exchange inventory changes - most days  available this daily report under nickel here (archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - Jun 24 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge.

• Baltic Dry Index -  minus 217 to 9,211. (chart) (article)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Sucden's Technical Analysis Nickel Chart thru yesterday - here (what does it mean - Candlestick Pattern Dictionary here / Intro to Candlesticks here )
• The dollar started out in an up mood, as Germany's business-climate index dropped to 101.3 from 103.5 in May. It was the lowest reading since December 2005. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's composite index of manufacturing and services industries fell to 49.5 this month from 51.1 in May. It's the first time in 5 years the gauge dropped below 50, indicating contraction. Metals took a thrashing today, with nearly all precious and industrial metals trading in the red. Aluminum and tin were the only metals to pull off a win, while nickel joined the others in the losers box. Market was only down around $200/tonne when we posted the morning update, but took a dive right after. According to indicator charts, it fell nearly $800/tonne of the daily high, before recovering nearly a third of that. According to Dow Jones, three month nickel ended the first trading day of the week, at $9.91/lb
• And the big metals news for the day? "Rio Tinto secures 85 percent rise in 2008 iron ore contract prices" - more
• We suspect Matt visit Rio Tinto. Might find a few partners there in the mood to join him today. Video here (Reminds us just how alike we inhabitants of this little planet really are)

  Nickel futures decline on poor demand - Nickel prices on Monday fell by 0.57 per cent in futures trading following poor demand. - more

  Rio agrees record iron ore price rises with China - Baosteel, China’s leading steelmaker, agreed on Monday to the largest ever annual increase in iron ore prices with Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, in a move that is likely to reinforce fears about global inflation. - more

  Tropical Storm Fengshen "Frank" heads for Taiwan or China or will it squeeze between? - more

• State of calamity declared in Western Visayas provinces - The provinces of Iloilo, Aklan and Capiz, Antique and Iloilo City were declared under a state of calamity as the death toll and reports of damage brought by typhoon "Frank" (international codename: Fengshen) in Western Visayas continued to rise. - more
• 33,000 families evacuated in Eastern Samar - Over 33,000 families in Eastern Visayas were evacuated when floods caused by typhoon “Frank” (international codename: Fengshen) hit their areas. - more
• Is the sky falling? Americans think so (Philippine Daily Inquirer)  Is everything spinning out of control? - more (never hurts to know what your friends see when they look at you. Mirrors usually only tell us what we want to hear)

  Groups sign joint resolution against offshore mining - A joint resolution opposing offshore mining here and calling on the government to stop an “imperialist act” that would lead to the destruction of the environment has been signed by foreign and local activists, a spokesman for a militant group has said. - more

  InfoMine's Mining Cost Data Center - here

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.09/lb lower.  Dollar is up this morning with Bloomberg reporting it rose "after a report showed German business confidence was worse than forecast in June, weakening the case for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates." The precious and base metals complex, except for tin, is trading lower. It appears Sucden analyst Nimit Khamar, has updated his chart thru Friday, which he now shows a TL1 and TL3 squeeze approaching.  (chart here) He also shows RSI rose to 41.9, which implies only slightly oversold.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more
• Thomson Financial - more

  Reports

• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• Haywood Metals & Mining - pdf here
• Australian Commodities (Metals Forecasts) - pdf here
• Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Friday Scrap report - pdf here
• June issue of magazine Steel world - articles in pdf format - more

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "LME metals continued to push upwards on Friday, with aluminum prices jumping to a three-month high on the Alcoa announcement that the Rockdale smelter is shutting down. In fact, aluminum was the primary driver for the group as a whole, where for a change on Friday, all the metals closed higher.  This morning, we are seeing modest across-the-board declines in metals on the back of a stronger dollar (up by about 60 points on the Euro) and less-than-inspiring Chinese related trade data. ...We are at $22,350 on nickel, down $50, and quiet. We seem to be trading down to test the bottom end of the range once again." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Courtesy Dow Jones - "Government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics forecasts metal will average $27,000/ton in 2008, down 27% on-year, also down from average $28,770/ton in first 4 months of this year. "Rising nickel production at new mines, scheduled to commence from mid-2008 is expected to increase nickel supply in 2009," hence forecast price to decline to average $22,000 in 2009, it says."
• Mr Peter Kaufmann, director of the International Stainless Steel Forum, to British Stainless Steel Association's conference - "We expect very little recovery in 2008 in demand. We see consumer and business confidence steeply down and there are serious worries about inflation.”

  POSCO says to cut stainless steel output in July - South Korea's POSCO said on Monday it would cut stainless steel output by 25,000 tonnes in July due to inventory build-up as buyers delay purchases on expectations of lower prices. - more

  TABLE-China May nickel, lead, zinc, tin trade - China's exports and imports of refined lead, zinc, tin and nickel as well as concentrates in May and the first five months of 2008, as reported in official customs figures. - more

  Union in New Caledonia calls for stability around SLN nickel company - New Caledonia’s USOENC union has called on the French government to intervene in a bid to ensure that the current financial structure behind the SLN nickel company remains stable. - more

  Henan Qingshan starts construction on SS slab project - It is reported that construction has started for a 400,000 tonnes per annum stainless steel slab casting project by Hennan Qingshan Jinhui Stainless Steel Company on June 10th 2008. - more

  Asian stainless steel may switch to rolling of carbon steel - It is reported that some East Asian stainless steel producers are considering switching some of their capacity to produce carbon steel as the sluggishness in the stainless steel market shows little sign of abating. - more

  China's Baosteel raises August prices - Baoshan Iron & Steel Co, China's largest steel maker, raised prices of some of its major steel products for August, a further boost to third-quarter prices, industry and company sources said on Monday. - more

  Iron ore trading quiet as market awaits Australian settlement - As sources awaited the outcome of iron ore contract negotiations between the Australians and the Chinese, buyers and sellers stepped back from the spot market. - more

• Iron ore demand quiet because of sizeable buyer stocks - 62% Fe content iron ore fines was still reported around $170/dmt CFR China Friday, with deals agreed above and below this level. Meanwhile 63% Fe content iron was priced anywhere between $180-183/dmt CFR north China, sources said. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• London Metal Exchange inventory changes - most days  available this daily report under nickel here (archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• Base Metal Prices-Mumbai-Jun 23 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge.

• Baltic Dry Index -  minus 46 to 9428. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Dollar headed down at the beginning of today's trading, with metals heading the opposite direction. Nickel became the second most expensive metal traded on the LME as tin rose 3% and passed it. According to the indicator charts, nickel spent the day bouncing back and forth around the $22,500/tonne mark, and at one point early in the trading session, rose approximately $300/tonne over that mark. With no new supply/demand news to move the market, it appeared nickel traders took their cues from the dollar, and the low RSI. For the day, and week, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended at $10.16/lb . Depending on whether the bears or the bulls get the upper hand in the coming weeks, the market appears to be trying to trade in the $22,000 to $23,000/tonne range, where it began the month.   
• Have a safe and restful weekend. 

  Reports

• Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Market report - pdf here
• ScotiaBank Commodity Price Index - pdf here
• Bob Garino's Weekly Metals Commodities Report for the week ending June 20, 2008 - more

  Commodity Comments

• Economic Times - China's decision to freeze thermal coal prices is an attempt to avert possible power shortages this summer, but could exacerbate the situation if coal miners decide to curb supply further. Late on Thursday night, China said it would cap thermal coal prices at Thursday's level through the end of the year. - more
• Cadiz Green Specialised Asset Management mining analyst and senior portfolio manager Peter Major stated at the Africa Mining Congress that the current high commodity prices were unsustainable. - more

  Kermas to Buy Rest of South African Ferrochrome Producer Mogale - Kermas Ltd., which controls the world's second-biggest ferrochrome producer, will buy the rest of a smaller South African rival, Mogale Alloys, after securing a majority stake. - more

  Rusal Not Buying Votes Ahead Of Norilsk Mtg - Alexander Bulygin, chief executive of aluminum titan United Co Rusal, said his company is not buying votes ahead of the upcoming shareholders meeting of the board of Russia's mining giant OAO Norilsk Nickel. - more

  Duplex pipes resist corrosion - Sandvik SAF 2205 offers a high resistance to stress corrosion cracking in chloride bearing environments and those containing hydrogen sulphide. - more

  Ecological fears over venture between BHP and Indonesian miner - Anglo-Australian giant BHP Billiton and an Indonesian firm announced Thursday a massive nickel mining partnership that has environmentalists raising concerns about a protected island paradise. - more

  Russia the third worst polluter in the world - Climate and the environment will again dominate the agenda when G8 leaders meet on Lake Toyako in Japan on July 7-9.  - more

  Material Safety Data Sheet's on scrap material - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.20/lb higher. Dollar is down and metals, both precious and industrial, are trading in the green, across the board. Nickel is up also, although after the last two days decline, these may turn out to be no more than what the traders call a "dead cat bounce". Both Ed Meir with MF Global, and Nimit Khamer with Sucden, put the RSI of nickel in the18 to 19 percentile range, which implies  the metal, as of close of business yesterday, was heavily oversold. Overnight LME inventories record a slight gain.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Economic Times - more
• Thomson Financial - more
• The Guardian - more

  Reports

• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - here
• Production of Canada's Leading Minerals Monthly Publication - April 2008 - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - " Most of the rest of the metals-- weighed down by more bearish fundamentals-- lost ground on the day yesterday, with nickel looking particularly weak. ... On the US macro front, there is no news out today; the dollar is weaker, and again over the 1.55 Euro mark, helping explain the stronger tone we are seeing in many commodities today. ... We are at $22,650 on nickel, up $450. Nickel continues to struggle, as weak stainless demand and high LME stocks restrain the market."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Courtesy Dow Jones - "Even though the steel destocking has gradually been fading out, this has only to a limited extent fed through into a substantial recovery of nickel demand, says Lehman Brothers' Michael Widmer. This explains why reported nickel inventories have remained relatively flat and average physical premia have stayed rangebound, he notes."

  World's crude steel output up 5.8% to 119.5 mil mt in May: IISI - World crude steel production for the 66 countries reporting to the International Iron and Steel Institute was 119.5 million mt in May, up 5.8% from the same month last year, according to a statement from the institute Friday. - more

  Chinese chrome ore import market weakens - It is reported that chrome ore import market weakens lately with plenty of resources and dull transactions. And Chrome ore stockpiles amount to some 600,000 tonne at seaports. - more

  Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 16th June 2008 = Yen Prices Of Bulk Ferro-Alloys To Be Contracted With EF Mills / Japan Are Influenced By Weakened Yen Rate - more

  China power fee hike to raise metals costs - China's power fee hike will increase costs at electricity-hungry aluminium smelters and have a smaller impact on copper and zinc smelters, smelter officials and analysts said on Friday. - more

• China Power Stocks Gain as Government Raises Tariffs - Chinese power stocks, led by Huaneng Power International Inc., a unit of the nation's largest electricity producer, rose in Shanghai trading as an imminent tariff increase boosts the industry's earnings outlook. - more
• China's new power tariff policy to further squeeze profits of aluminum smelters - analysts - Profits of Chinese aluminum smelters are expected to be further squeezed as the government has lifted power tariffs for industrial use by RMB 25 ($3.62) per megawatt hour (MWh) on average, effective July 1, but according to some analysts, higher electricity prices may support a rise in aluminum prices.
• China raises prices of oil, electricity - Petrol will cost 0.8 yuan (12 cents) and diesel 0.92 yuan more for a liter from today, and electricity charges for commercial units will go up by 0.025 yuan ($0.4 cents) per kWh from July 1. - more

  Greek nickel producer Larco up for sale - Local media reported that the Greek state is in search of a strategic partner for the state controlled nickel producer Larco. The company produces nickel, electric furnace slag and aggregates. - more

  Chihong Zinc and Germanium subsidiary acquires stake in Australian nickel miner - An Australian-based subsidiary of Shanghai-listed Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co. Ltd. (Chihong Zinc and Germanium) recently purchased 10 million shares in Australian-listed Condor Nickel Ltd. (Condor Nickel) for AUD 2 million ($1.89 million) in a share placement, Condor Nickel announced Wednesday. - more

  (Part 4 of 4) Pollution Prevention Avoids Future Problems – (Digging Through the Sudbury Soils Study) – By Bill Bradley - more

  Want to earn more? Go Colorado military or mining. - Want to earn more? Go into the military or mining in Colorado. That strange conclusion would appear to follow from this extract of a report on personal income gains since the forth quarter of 2007 - more

  Servicing the commodity boom - Images of giant ships lined up off the East and West Coast ports of Australia provide for a spectacular view and underlie what is turning into a generational windfall for the Australian economy. - more

  SA a preferred destination for Chinese mining investment - In terms of number of projects, South Africa currently ranks joint second among African countries regarding Chinese investment in mining. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures - most days available in this daily report under nickel here (charts and archives)
• London Metal Exchange inventory changes - most days  available this daily report under nickel here (archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• Base Metal Prices-Mumbai-Jun 20 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge.

• Baltic Dry Index - plus 37 to 9,474. (chart) article w/forecast
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Dollar was higher today on news that the Swiss National Bank had decided to keep interest rates steady, and news that oil prices were down in today's trading. Dollar leveled out after US markets opened with numerous reports issued. Marketwatch reported the "Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported factories in the region weakened in June for the seventh month straight, with more manufacturers saying business is getting worse rather than better. At the same time, the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose slightly in May for a second straight month, potentially indicating the economy might begin turning a corner early next year."  The Labor Dept reported that weekly first-time jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to stand at 381,000, while the four-week average climbed to 375,250. Metals were mixed, with precious mostly trading higher, and base metals all trading lower, albeit some of them just barely. Nickel lead the losers today, after the INSG disputed yesterday's report by the WBMS that the nickel market remained in a deficit.  The title by Bloomberg said it all "Nickel Posts Widest Surplus in Eight Months in April." Sucden's chart thru yesterday shows where market sentiment was heading into today's opening (here), and it continued, if not accelerated according to indicator charts. Nickel took a healthy slide in later afternoon trading, and according to Dow Jones, ended the day at $10.05/lb . Weren't we bouncing around the $10/lb mark a few weeks back?  

  Reports

• Standard Bank Commodities Weekly - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Philip Sushchikhin, a market analyst with Russia's Norilsk Nickel, the world's leading nickel producer, at an industry conference - "After 2009, if there is no technological breakthrough in the process of nickel pig iron production that would lead to the net cost dropping below its current level of $25,000 per tonne, we can expect the possibility of a complete withdrawal of nickel pig iron from stainless steel production. This will strongly influence nickel market supply, mainly in China, resulting in increased nickel imports to China"
• INSG today - " In China, the largest buyer of the metal (nickel), demand was 30,500 tons in April, unchanged from March and up 13 percent from a year earlier."

  Gloomy economy seen weighing on stainless steel demand - Stainless steel demand is likely to remain sluggish for the rest of the year as a gloomy economic outlook dampens demand, an industry expert and producers said on Thursday. - more

  Eskom Hike To Add ZAR90M-100M To Costs - Implats - A hike this week to energy tariffs in South Africa will add about 90 million-100 million rand ($11.21 million-$12.46 million) to Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd.'s (IMPUY) costs, a spokesperson said Thursday. - more

  Steel, Aluminum Shipments Fall in the U.S and Canada – Steel and aluminum shipments from metals service centers, which rose from year-ago levels in April, were lower again in May in the United States and Canada, the Metals Activity Report from the Metals Service Center Institute shows. Customers appear to be operating very close to the vest with no discernable momentum building in either direction. - more

  Vale says not in acquisition, financing talks - "Brazil's Vale, the world's largest iron ore miner, said in an e-mail that it is not in acquisition talks with any company and is not discussing acquisition financing with banks. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around  $.11/lb lower. Indicator charts show nickel started lower this morning, and is struggling there. Traders are digesting the INSG report today, which comes on the back of the WBMS report yesterday.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more

  Nickel Posts Widest Surplus in Eight Months in April - Nickel oversupply grew in April to the widest in eight months as demand shrank for a third month, according to International Nickel Study Group figures. - more

  Reports

• BMO Commodities - The Goods - pdf here
• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - more

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "The dollar did not play much of a role yesterday, as it recovered earlier losses to close pretty much flat on the day. However, a sharp reversal in energy prices did help, as crude tacked on another $2.50 on the day after being down by an equivalent amount earlier. ... We are off to another mixed start in metals today, with gains seen in copper and ali, but the rest of the group is lower.  ... We are at $22,800 on nickel, down $200. Nickel continues to look weak, despite constructive news on the supply side. Participants instead seem to be more