Updated daily M-F before 8:00 am CST and by 1 pm CST

• Official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.52/lb 3 month buyer - $13.68/lb (14.86% higher than 12/31/07) (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 12 to  8,081. (chart)
• LME nickel inventories - minus 108 tonnes from Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 18 tonnes from Baltimore, MD, USA warehouse
• National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago survey came in with a stronger reading than expected, although still below 50, which indicates an expanding business sector. Dollar slumped against the US dollar again. Metals were mixed, but mostly down. While the union is saying the Cerro Matoso strike is not over yet, it appears to be nothing more than technical details to be completed. Lot of reports over the weekend about a commodity bubble getting ready to bust. While we agree with those who feel much of the price activity goes well beyond the supply/demand parameters, we seriously doubt we will see any massive downturn anytime soon... at least with nickel. RBC, in a recent report, stated "Nickel prices are not behaving consistently with the historic inventory price relationship. Despite inventories having risen well above the critical level, prices have not fallen back below $10/lb, as would be expected." (see, we aren't the only ones confused by recent market 'increases') As long as funds continue to look for protection from inflationary risks, and the US economy doesn't enter into a "depression", we honestly can not see nickel prices doing much more than they have over the last 4-5 months. In the same report, RBC estimated nickel would average $14/lb this year, and we feel that is a fairly safe bet. The news of the Colombia nickel strike ending dragged nickel down early, with an attempt in the afternoon to regain ground, only to back off again late. For the day, three month nickel ended the day - and month - at $13.49/lb ($29,750/tonne). Tomorrow is new fund allocation for the second quarter.
• Closing Metals Report - more

  Strike At BHP's Colombian Nickel Mine Still Not Over -Union

• The strike at the Colombian Cerro Matoso nickel mine owned by Australian mining company BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) is not completely over, a union leader said Monday. - more

  Commodity Comments

• Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "Nickel supply growth has "significant upside risk," says JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen. New projects from Goro and Ravensthorpe could drive prices lower in the next 12-to-24 months."

  News Bites

• Norway - Nikkelverk Nickel Refinery will be the next round of union negotiations to watch, with the current contract expiring May 31st.
• China - There is a new aggression from Chinese companies and they will increasingly make hostile takeover bids as they engage more fully with world financial markets. - more
• Tire Shortage Continues - A chronic global shortage of giant off-road tires for earthmovers and mining equipment is having some unusual consequences. - more
• Power problems - A report from Barclays Capital says a global shortage of electric generating capacity is dramatically curbing world metal production, which could mean sustained commodity price hikes over the next several years. -article half way down page from 21st

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.16/lb . As we reported on Sunday, the union at Cerro Matoso voted to accept the most recent offer by BHP and are returning to work today, ending a 4 week old strike. Shortly after Mr Meir's posted his report below, the price of nickel stopped its downward fall, and has been slowly gaining. At one time, down over $1000/tonne, it is now down by around $350 tonne on the day. LME nickel inventories slumped by 126 tonnes overnight, with inbound shipments taking a rest after two rather enormous shipments last week.
• Bloomberg - more

  Reports

• Haywood Metals & Mining Weekly - pdf here
• (India) Karvy Metals Insight - permanent link now in right column under India flag

  Commodity Comments

• MF Global Ed Meir's Morning Comment - "LME metals finished lower on Friday, as weakness in US equity markets and concern about the state of the US economy overrode the impact of the weaker dollar. Copper lost $100 on the day to close at $8405, and reversed sharply from earlier gains that took it to an intraday high of $8600. There were losses in the rest of the group as well, with nickel’s $900/MT selloff being particularly noteworthy, coming as it did in spite of a declared force majeure on nickel deliveries from Colombia.....Markets are following Friday’s pattern again today, opening higher during Asian trading but starting to lose ground as the US markets gear up for trading. There is no major metals-specific news we can see apart form the weekend announcement that unionized workers at Colombia's Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine accepted a company offer to end their four-week strike Miners are expected to return back to work later today, and nickel prices, not surprisingly, are down slightly right now....Nickel is now at $29,950, down $550, as prices respond to news that the strike at the Cerro Matoso mine in Colombia is over. Charts suggests a slightly drift lower from here."
• Canada - RBC Capital Markets forecasts a 13.2% rebound in nickel demand growth this year, along with an average price of $14 per pound. - more

  Strike ends at BHP's Cerro Matoso mine as workers accept offer

• Striking miners at BHP Billiton's Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia voted Sunday to accept an offer put forward by the company, putting an end to the month-long strike which saw production paralysed at the mine and smelter, the company said Monday. - more

  News Bites

• Taiwan - Due to the nickel price fluctuation, Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco) has announced to raise prices again in April. - more
• China - It is reported that Chinese steel mills are worried about their iron ore inventories in coming weeks, as most of the steel mills and traders have been denied bank credit for issuing letter of credit for iron ore procurement. - more
• China - Manufacturing activity in China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, quickened in February as companies resumed production after the nation’s worst snowstorms in half a century. - more
• Papua New Guinea - Australia's Highlands Pacific Limited said Monday that its joint venture partner, MCC Ramu NiCo Limited, would start large-scale construction at the Ramu Nickel Project in Papua New Guinea within 90 days.. - more
• China - China's steel prices will continue to stay high this year, pushed up by booming demand and rising costs, say domestic industry experts. - more
• China - The price of coke will continue to stay at a high level this year amid surging demand and rising cost, according to the China Coking Industry Association (CCIA). - more
• Russia - Foreign investors will have their say in the $60 billion (£30.1 billion) battle for control of Norilsk Nickel today when they vote on who should control the board of the Russian mining company. - more
• Top 10 - As per some unconfirmed sources, following are the top 10 steel makers in 2007 - more
• Europe - Cheap imports do not pose a threat to the EU, Chinese manufacturers have insisted, as the Commission attempts to deal with an increasing number of requests to introduce punitive duties on Chinese products, allegedly dumped on EU markets at below-cost prices. - more

  Beginning LME nickel inventory / Overnight Shanghai closing price

•   London Metal Exchange - minus 126 tonnes = 49,866 tonnes (3.19% - 972 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 48,894 net stock level) (charts)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 244000-246000 RMB/t, minus 4000   (charts)

  A reader sent us a Metals Week article from March 3rd that has statistics that do not agree with those we published earlier from Antaike thru a Rusmet article. According to the article, quoting China Stainless Steel Association figures, of the 7.206 million metric tonnes of stainless steel produced in China in 2007, 58.13% was chrome-nickel stainless (300 series), 25.52% chrome stainless (400 series), and 16.35% manganese-manganese stainless steel (200 series). If true, these numbers would reflect little change from 2006 statistics

  Unionized workers at Colombia's Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine will vote on Sunday on a company offer to end a four-week strike that has hit global nickel prices, a labor union leader said. - more

  Chart courtesy Commonwealth Research

  The dental industry has been warned that anyone found using illegal cut-price crowns and dentures imported from China faces jail, say the industry's watchdogs. - more

  Unidentified thieves stole metal parts from 44 cars parked at an Indianapolis company this week, police say. - more

  Concern about delays to some major global nickel projects has helped boost prices for the metal in early 2008. - more

  Allegheny Ludlum announces 6% price increase on stainless steel effective April 7th, with other price increases effective Monday - pdf notice here (thanks to a reader)

  Pinning down Marius Kloppers, CEO of BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, is no easy task. - more

  The government’s move to keep ever increasing inflation figures under check thereby asking iron ore miners to reduce raw material export is giving sleepless nights to the merchant miners in the country. - more

  India has withdrawn tax refund schemes for exports of steel and cement as domestic prices of both commodities are high and local supplies need to be increased, the trade secretary said on Friday. - more

  Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath today said his ministry would recommend scrapping of import duty on steel, whose rising prices have contributed to a surge in inflation rate. - more

  China media reports that South Africa is now negotiating with buyers for the second quarter high carbon ferrochrome prices at US$2/lb because European stainless mills have resumed their production....It said that European mills have unofficially agreed to a price of US$1.95/lb per pound while South African suppliers are demanding US$2.05/lb for high carbon ferrochrome, but such information has not been verified.

  The government will compel exporters to verify all mineral products before shipping them abroad. If earlier the mineral products to be verified only fall under the C category. In the future A and B categories of minerals must also undergo the same process. - more

  For commodities investors, reading the tea leaves of the Chinese economy has rarely been more difficult.- more

  Welded Stainless Steel Pressure Pipe From China  - more

  A job fair for companies that provide supply and service to the mining sector was held in the main foyer at Tom Davies Square today, from 9 am to 3 pm.- more

  Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Market Report - pdf here

• Official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $14.12/lb 3 month buyer - $14.28/lb (19.9% higher than 12/31/07) (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 185 to 8,069 (chart)
• LME nickel inventories - plus 768 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 48 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 24 tonnes from Singapore warehouse, minus 36 tonnes from Liverpool, England warehouse
• Bloomberg today - "The dollar headed for the biggest weekly drop against the euro this month as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs further while the European Central Bank holds rates steady." Metals should go up, right? Wrong. Across the board, precious and base metals were selling in the red today. With news that BHP had declared force majeure at its Cerro Matoso, Colombia nickel mine, nickel shot up in early trading. But this three day balloon ride was destined to run out of hot air sooner or later, and today was that day. We had our blindfolded monkey throw the dart at the "Reasons and Excuses Board" and today's explanation is....profit-taking. For the day and week, three month nickel ended at $13.81/lb ($30,450/tonne) One trading day left in the month, and quarter.
• Closing Metals Report - more
• As distributors of nickel laden stainless steel product, we would like to offer a photo to explain our feelings about this weeks "bull" market - here Have a safe and relaxing weekend!

  Reports

• Damstahl Stainless Steel Report - March 2008 - pdf here
• London Metal Exchange "The Ringsider" - here

  News Bites

• Cuba - Rusmet is reporting Cuba will build a 174.6 megawatt power plant to supply electricity to the new Cuban/China MinMetals nickel project in the Camaguey province. Originally planned to produce 60,000 tonnes of nickel per year, it si estimated at tits completion, this mine will produce 45,000 tonne so ferro-nickel annually. (comment - we had heard last year a deal between MinMetals and the Cuban government to build a nickel mine in Holguin province was off and that Venezuela had taken over that partnership.)  
• Colombia - BHP told customers last week that deliveries from the Cerro Matoso mine may be affected by the month-long strike by labour union workers. - more
• South Africa - BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, will cancel 2.4 billion rand ($300 million) of business with Standard Bank Group Ltd. because of remarks about its aluminum business made by a bank executive. - more
• Analyst - Investment advisor John Tumazos said Thursday, that despite the 11% downturn in metal prices last week, "this is a very good time" for metals and "it's going to continue to be a good time." - more
• Finland - Outokumpu Oyj rose in Helsinki trading on speculation ArcelorMittal wants to acquire the Finnish government's stake in the world's fourth-biggest stainless-steel maker, analysts and traders said. - more
• England - Researchers at Southampton University have established that copper surfaces can inactivate the virulent hospital superbug Clostridium difficile. - more
• Kitchen & Bath - In what we hope is the first of many Designer Roundtables, we asked several CKD’s and CBD’s this question: Though stainless steel is more popular than ever, today's trend is often tomorrow's passing fad. - more
• Botswana - If you think SA power users are in trouble, spare a thought for Botswana. Almost entirely dependent on Eskom, it has been told that its power supplies will be cut by more than a third over the next four years. - more (home of Tati Nickel)

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling up by $.09/lb . All of the media reports we have posted show nickel way up earlier, which is true. At one point this morning three month nickel had jumped by around $700/tonne. It has since retreated sharply, but remains in the green, and appears to be heading back up as we post. BHP has declared force majeure and the knee jerk reaction was to take the price of nickel higher. Strike was a month old yesterday, and since its beginning, LME warehouse stocks have grown to their highest level this century. The last three days have seen some of the largest shipments inbound we have seen in a very long time. As of this morning, we are 8 tonnes short of the psychological 50,000/tonne barrier - in inventory, not in price.   
• Reuters - more

  Reports

• Commodity Online Daily Report - here

  Nickel Heads for Biggest Gain in 6 Months on BHP Supply Curb

• Nickel headed for the biggest weekly gain in six months in London after BHP Billiton Ltd. declared force majeure on deliveries from its nickel mine in Colombia. Copper and aluminum also gained. - more

  Commodity Comments

• Edward Meir MF Global - "LME metals finished up once again yesterday, but this was not due to dollar-related weakness. In fact, the greenback finished steady yesterday after final 4th quarter GDP figures and initial weekly claims readings out of the US both came in within expectations...nickel is now at $31,600, up $200, as prices respond to news that BHP Billiton declared force majeure on nickel deliveries from its Cerro Matoso mine in Colombia. The main dispute is over outside contractors, with the union opposing their use, while the company says they are necessary for short-term projects. The mine produces about 4% of the world’s nickel." SUPPORT: $27800 / RESISTANCE: $34000
• Commentary: Selling commodities-trading unit raises a cautionary flag - (excerpt) "ConAgra is also looking at the kind of volatility that accompanies commodities trading when prices enter uncharted territory. When price swings get really wild, liquidity typically dries up as all but the most foolhardy speculators run to less risky investments. This throws the door wide open to what traders call the Roach Motel -- a market where soaring prices lure investors into big positions only to leave them trapped when prices turn south, unable to find counterparties willing to help them unwind those positions." - source
• Nickel prices to fall following short term rally – Macquarie Bank
• Courtesy Bloomberg - "Chinese stainless steelmakers will probably boost output by 23 percent this year to 9.1 million metric tons because of strong domestic demand and plant expansion, Macquarie Group Ltd.'s analyst Bonnie Liu said.....Most of the gain in nickel demand this year has been confined to Europe, Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said today by phone. ``The U.S. and China are still pretty weak,'' resulting in higher stockpiles on the LME, she said."
• Citigroup Commodity Heap report out titled "Fund Flow Fever"

  China's stainless steel output to reach 9 mln tons this year - official

• China's stainless steel output is expected to grow by nearly 25 percent year-on-year to 9 million tons this year, a senior official from a major privately owned Chinese stainless steel mill told Interfax in Hong Kong today. - more

  News Bites

• Delays to nickel mines around the world will force big industrial consumers like stainless steel makers to rely on low grade nickel pig iron for years. - more
• "Zimbabwe's mining industry, with the world's second-biggest platinum and chrome reserves, should be booming amid record prices. Instead, production has fallen. Ferrochrome output alone has slumped by 15 percent since 2000." - more
• Mining company BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) said Friday it has declared a force majeure at its Colombian Cerro Matoso nickel mine due to an ongoing strike. - more
• Deripaska and Prokhorov holding companies trade claims over Norilsk Nickel deal contract.- more
• BL reported that inadequate availability of electricity in South Africa, which has 80% of the world’s chrome ore reserves and accounts for 45% to 50% of the global market for ferrochrome, has provided Indian ferrochrome exporters with an opportunity to grab a larger share of the global market for ferrochrome. - more
• Price Of Ferro-Chrome For Shipments In Q2 / 08 Is On Offense And Defense Of US$2 / Lb. - more
• Price Of Domestic Ni-Based Stainless Steel Scrap Is Reduced From 21st March - more
• BHP Billiton will need nearly half of South Australia's current electricity supply to power its vastly expanded Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine. - more

  Beginning LME nickel inventory / Overnight Shanghai closing price

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 660 tonnes = 49,992 tonnes (2.00% - 1002 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 48,990 net stock level) (charts)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 248000-250000 RMB/t, plus 3000  (charts)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.59/lb 3 month buyer - $13.69/lb (14.95% higher than 12/31/07) (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 205 to 7,884. (chart)
• LME nickel inventories - plus 912 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 162 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 24 tonnes from Singapore warehouse, plys 24 tonnes into Gothenburg, Sweden warehouse
• Marketwatch lead story this morning read "The U.S. economy downshifted abruptly in the fourth quarter, growing at a 0.6% annual rate, the slowest pace since late 2002...." This was about what was expected, and while the equity traders didn't like the confirmation of recessionary concerns, the dollar traded higher, because minimal growth is better than a negative reading. With the dollar trading higher, some of the precious metals were trading lower, but base metals bucked the trend, and all traded up. CNN gave credit to the rise in copper prices, with the others riding its coat-tails. This would be a good theory, except nickel's gain for the day was at a much higher percentile than any other base metal. Why? Who knows! In our opinion, nickel market trading is making very little sense this week, and is once again proving beyond suspicion, that fundamentals mean nothing these days, and the ups and downs are based strictly on speculation, backed by fund managers looking for a place to make some quick cash, or park their money as a safe haven from future inflationary news, that is sure to come. Three month nickel ended the days trading at $14.24/lb ($31,400/tonne) 
• Closing Report - more
• Mile high skyscraper? It's up for bid here

  China to import over 2 million mt of ferrochrome in 2008: Kermas

• China will import more than 2 million mt of ferrochrome in 2008, marking an increase of a minimum of 650,000 mt from last year, Wan-wu Dong, director of marketing for Kermas China, said Thursday at the Metal Bulletin's 9th Asian Ferroalloys Conference in Hong Kong. - more 

  US stainless steel consumption figures for January 2008, and year end figures for 2007

• From the report issued by the Specialty Steel Industry of North America today. Consumption of stainless steel sheet/strip - down 18.4% compared to same period in 2007. Stainless steel plate, down 57.5%. Stainless steel bar - down 24.2%. Stainless steel rod - down 24.5%. Stainless steel wire - down 19.4%. Total imports of stainless steel - down 14.5%.
• From same report, annual consumption of stainless steel sheet/strip was down 17.% in 2007 compared to 2006. Stainless steel plate - down 6.7%. Stainless steel bar - down 2.5%. Stainless steel rod - down 10.5%. Stainless steel wire - down 5.9%.
• Report - pdf here 

  Europe Stainless Steel Surcharges

• 304 / Jan 08 - 1884-1916 / Feb 08 - 1696-1745 / March 08 - 1661-1734 / April 08 - 1743-1899
  316 / Jan 08 - 3055-3121 / Feb 08 - 3192-3284 / March 08 - 3158-3268 / April 08 - 3300-3444
  430 / Jan 08 - 280-311/ Feb 08 - 284-328 / March 08 - 339-375 / April 08 - 345-410 

  Colombia Cerro Matoso mine restarts talks-union

• Labor talks restarted on Wednesday at Colombia's Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine, which produces 4 percent of the world's nickel, and could lead to a strike-ending deal in the days to come, the miners' union said. - more

  News Bites

• United States - Stainless Steel Sheet and Strip in Coils from Taiwan; Partial Rescission of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review and Notice of Extension of Time Limits for Preliminary Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review - more
• Molybdenum - A deficiency of oxygen and the heavy metal molybdenum in the ancient deep ocean may have delayed the evolution of animal life on Earth by nearly two billion years, a study led by UC Riverside biogeochemists has found. - more
• China - (highlights from article posted this morning) "High prices of iron ore are spurring Chinese stainless steel producers to increase purchases of nickel pig iron for which iron is a free byproduct, a senior executive at Tsingshan Holding Group said on Thursday. Tsingshan, China's top private stainless steel mill, used nickel pig iron and primary nickel to produce 600,000 tonnes of stainless steel last year without using iron ores or steel scrap, Xinfang Jiang told Reuters on the sidelines of Metal Bulletin's Asian Ferro-Alloys conference in Hong Kong.In the price of nickel pig iron, iron is free. That's why the use of nickel pig iron in China has risen," said Jiang, president of Shanghai Tsingshan Mineral Co. Ltd, a subsidiary of the group. "We do not have any technical problem, and I do not believe Taigang and Baosteel would have," he said.....He (Bonnie Liu, Macquarie Bank's China commodity research analyst) said the costs to process imported laterite ores into nickel pig iron containing 5-7 percent metal were at $8,000-9,000 per tonne in China."  (article)
• India - The union government on Thursday decided to call a meeting of country’s iron ore producers next week to discuss problems faced by the sector. - more
• MEPS - US mill transaction prices continue their positive trend. They are being driven by escalating input costs and higher energy and transport charges, rather than any improvement in real consumption. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling up by $.18/lb Definition of speculation - "the engagement in business transactions involving considerable risk but offering the chance of large gains, especially trading in commodities, stocks, etc., in the hope of profit from changes in the market price." Nickel inventories added another 750 tonnes overnight. That is the most amount of nickel stored in London MEtal Exchange warehouses this year. Scratch that. Make that the most nickel stored in LME warehouse this century. And regardless of the media reports yesterday, except for the period following the collapse of Communist Russia, when nickel flooded the market, and miners couldn't pay customers to take it, the current inventory level is well ahead of 20th century average levels. So when the media claims that "speculation" that China is going to start buying nickel again soon, being the cause of what is driving the price of  nickel higher, look back thru the headlines we have posted, and notice how many times this form of speculation has caused nickel prices to jump over the past six months, and proved to be a hope without merit. Will China need more refined nickel in the coming months? Probably. If for no other reason, it will be due to the fact China doesn't want their Olympics smogged out, so a lot of smog producing plants in the area are being shut down 'temporarily' to clean up the air. Among these will most likely be some pig nickel refineries. Without the pig nickel, producers will be forced to import. We feel this is highly speculative, though, and a temporary situation at best. In the mean time, we wish the speculators would explain why nickel stored in LME warehouse's continue to grow?

  Reports

• Stainless Steel Information Center (SSINA) Releases January Market Data - pdf here
• (India) Karvy Comtrade Metals Insight - pdf here
• Nickel Magazine (latest edition) - online here

  Nickel Rises for 3rd Day in London on China Demand Speculation

• Nickel advanced for a third consecutive day in London on speculation demand from China, the world's largest user, will expand because of rising production of stainless steel.- more

  China nickel pig iron demand rises on iron ore hikes

• High prices of iron ore are spurring Chinese stainless steel producers to increase purchases of nickel pig iron for which iron is a free byproduct, a senior executive at Tsingshan Holding Group said on Thursday. - more

  Commodity Comments

• Edward Meir with MF Global - While commodities were shooting higher yesterday, the US stock market was heading south in a replay of the divergence we saw about two weeks ago. It remains to be seen if commodities are gearing up to retest the record highs largely at the expense of struggling stock and bond markets. Despite the impressive advances of the past few days, we are not sure we are quite there just yet. It seems commodities are being boosted by the weaker dollar, while ignoring the rapidly deteriorating US macro backdrop and the weak demand implications this will have on metals. We therefore are inclined to see this recent move higher in metals as a rally in a short-term downtrend that has yet to fully play out.....* Bloomberg reports that China’s Tsingshan Holding Group as saying that the country may increase demand for nickel after the government recently closed some operations producing substitute pig-iron. There was no mention as to which smelter was shut down or how much production was sidelined.

  News Bites

• United States - Specialty metals maker Allegheny Technologies Inc. paid L. Patrick Hassey, its chairman, president and chief executive, about $25.2 million in 2007, as company profit rose some 30 percent. - more (that's a cool $69,041 a day for 365 days)
• United States - As US steel prices soar to record heights despite slowness in the US economy, Citigroup is raising its steel price forecasts for 2008 while predicting margin expansion at US mills but warning of the potential for dropping prices later in the year. - more
• New Caledonia - The head of New Caledonia’s Goro Nickel company, Phil du Toit, says if the planned waste pipe cannot be used the nickel plant won’t be able to operate. - more
• Colombia - The 29-day strike at Colombia's Cerro Matoso metallurgical complex has generated partial losses of 140bn pesos (US$76.6mn), Roger Herrera, president of the Sintracerromatoso union, told BNamericas. - more
• China - China, the world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 23 percent this year because of strong domestic demand and plants expansion, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. said. - more
• Russia - When T.S. Eliot was summing up what he knew of hollow men, he concluded: “this is the way the world ends/not with a bang but a whimper”. This is also the way Russia’s biggest-ever hostile takeover, Oleg Deripaska’s bid to take control of Norilsk Nickel, is ending. - more
• China - It is reported that an official ceremony marking the launch of Shandong Iron & Steel Group was held on March 26th 2008, celebrating the successful merger of between Laiwu Iron & Steel and Jinan Iron & Steel. - more
• Japan - Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel notified the distributors concerned to reduce from the 21st of March the price of nickel-based stainless steel scrap ( new clippings ) to be purchased by them from domestic sources by Yen 30,000 per metric ton. - more
• India - India's chrome ore exports are likely to rise 10% in the next financial year starting April despite an export duty hike of INR1,000 a metric ton on the ore, the Business Standard newspaper reported Wednesday.

  Beginning LME nickel inventory / Overnight Shanghai closing price

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 750 tonnes = 49,332 tonnes (2.16% - 1068 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 48,264 net stock level) (charts)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 244500-247500 RMB/t, minus 250   (charts)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.17/lb 3 month buyer - $13.31/lb (11.75% higher than 12/31/07) (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 60 to 7,679. (chart)
• LME nickel inventories - plus 1128 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 132 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 18 tonnes from Busan, South Korea warehouse, minus 18 tonnes from Baltimore, MD, USA warehouse
• US Dollar slumped again today, which boosted base and precious metal prices, all apparently still in recovery mode from last week's correction. Durable goods took a larger hit than expected, and new home sales fall to 13 year low, which put the attention back on recessionary concerns for equity markets. Tomorrow, the GDP and unemployment numbers will be released, which if "not as bad as expected", will probably turnaround today's negative reaction.  Friday's consumer confidence and personal income outlay reports might possibly put inflation back in the news. Nickel saw its prices up and down as traders played tug-of-war with the market.  Trading within a $600/tonne range, nickel slipped into the red on three occasions, and into the green for four. So, with LME nickel inventories at their highest levels in years, on the back of a strike which has erased 3-4% of the world's supply off the plate, an increase in the proportion of 200 series stainless being manufactured in China from the mid teens to the mid 20 percentile range, three month nickel ended at  $13.51/lb ($29,775/tonne). Believe it or not.    
• Closing Metals Report - more

  Reports

• Standard Bank: Weekly Commodity Research - pdf here
• Interesting graph showing the increase in metal prices in foreign currencies - here

  China Baosteel net down on stainless steel slump

• Baoshan Iron and Steel Co., China's top steel maker, reported on Wednesday an unexpected fall in 2007 net profit, blaming weakness in the stainless steel market following a plunge in nickel prices. - more

  Commodity Comments

• Copyright/courtesy Scotia Capital China Update - " In the first two months of 2008, China imported 25,769 tonnes of refined nickel, up 18.1% YOY. In the same period, China’s exports of refined nickel declined to only 884 tonnes, down 81.1% YOY. We observe that the disruption in domestic production caused by the snowstorm was partially behind the surge in refined nickel imports, as well as the shortage of coke, which curbs the output of nickel pig iron using low-grade nickel ore. China’s nickel ore imports were 1.235 million tonnes and 1.039 million tonnes in January and February respectively. We note that China’s ore imports had been stabilizing in the range of 1 million to 1.2 million tonnes for six consecutive months, after peaking in July 2007 (2.278 million tonnes) and August 2007 (1.731 million tonnes)."

  News Bites

• China - Platts cited official from Beijing Antaike, the state run non ferrous metals information provider, as saying that China's nickel output is expected to reach 250,000 tonnes in 2008 up by 17% from 214,000 tonnes in 2007. - more
• Russia - Mechel, the Russian steel and coal firm controlled by billionaire Igor Zyuzin, has agreed to pay $1.5 billion for ferro-chrome producer Oriel Resources and increase access to valuable raw materials. - more
• China - China's output of the 10 major nonferrous metals in 2007 rose by 23.44% to hit 23.61 million tonnes in 2007, making it the largest producer of nonferrous metals in the world for the sixth consecutive year, the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association (CNMIA) said Wednesday. - more
• Colombia - An ongoing strike at BHP Billiton's (BHP) Colombian nickel mine has cost the Australian mining company 145 billion Colombian pesos ($79.2 million) in revenue, a union leader said Wednesday. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.07/lb . Considering the nickel market is still reportedly running in a small deficit situation, and many analysts continue to hope inventories start sliding 'anytime' now, and that a nickel mine producing 3-4% of the world's nickel has been shut down for nearly a month, it is quite surprising that we see the LME inventory of nickel jump up by nearly 1000 tonnes overnight. That takes the total to the highest it has been this year.... and for that matter, the highest it has been in years!! For those of you who buy nickel out there, that might have someone from the nickel industry "dare" tell you the price of nickel is supported by market fundamentals, tell them to go waste someone else's time. Supply/demand means very little these days, unless we are talking about the supply of fund money and the demand on their managers to produce a profit.
• Bloomberg - more
• Special hat tip to Fed Ex driver Jay McMullin who is shown helping 78-year-old Odell Bunch to safety - video here (story)

  Reports

• Rand Merchant Bank Weekly Base Metal Report - pdf here
• Canada Commodity Price Update - pdf here
• Steel Founders' Society of America Casteel Reporter - March 2008 - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• The Barker Letter - (excerpt) "People want to know where metals prices are headed. I don’t know. In days of yore, copper and zinc and nickel went down at the start of a recession as order books stagnated and inventories built up. Then at the depth of it, the prices would rebound on renewed demand. The problem now is there are so many hedge funds and speculators involved in bidding commodities up and down that their pricing no long reflects the relative position of the business cycle." - source
• Morning Briefing from Edward Meir MF Global - "This morning, the LME complex is up once again, as another stock draw in copper, firmer energy prices, and a weaker dollar continue to support the markets. Metals were also buoyed by a positive German corporate sentiment index, which unexpectedly rose in March to its highest level in seven months despite a stronger euro and firm oil prices. Separate data showed business morale rising in France as well, although in Italy, sentiment fell to its lowest level in 31 months.....With respect to the short-term outlook in metals, we still are not sure that last week’s commodity correction has fully run its course despite the recent blips higher. We are a bit wary of buying the dips based on a weaker dollar, as we would not be surprised to see central banks intervene if the dollar starts to slide again.... Nickel is now at $29,900, up $350, and stalling a bit here after yesterday's decent showing; prices continue to remain confined to a sideways trading range.
• (excerpt) Arturo Rodriguez is a co-founder of Juno Mother Earth Asset Management - "The weak U.S. dollar should help extend the bullish story line for commodities in general, along with demand from developing economies, Rodriguez said. India and China, in particular, are "two huge markets for consumption," he said. "Being countries that have almost no infrastructure, they have strained their capacity to produce almost everything from food to iron and nickel," he said." - more
• As speculators and investors attract blame for driving up commodity costs, new research shows demand from industrial users has spurred a price boom in a range of metals. - more

  South Africa's ferrochrome price negotiation still in talks

• South Africa is now negotiating with buyers for the second quarter high-carbon ferrochrome prices at US$2 per pound because European stainless mills have resumed their production. - more

  Colombia Cerro Matoso mine to restart talks-union

• Labor talks will restart on Wednesday at Colombia's Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine, which produces 4 percent of the world's nickel, the union representing the miners said on Tuesday. - more

  News Bites

• Brazil - Brazilian miner Vale and Switzerland's Xstrata Plc said late Tuesday that they have ended merger discussions that would have created the world's largest mining company. - more
• New Caledonia - The owner of Goro Nickel breaks silence - translated article here
• United States - (Courtesy AISI) "In the week ending March 22, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,118,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 88.8 percent. Production was 2,073,000 tons in the week ending March 22, 2007, while the capability utilization then was 86.3 percent. The current week production represents a 2.1 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending March 22, 2008 is up 1.5 percent from the previous week ending March 15, 2008 when production was 2,086,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 87.5 percent."
• United States - The Specialty Steel Industry of North America ("SSINA") has released the first statistical data on imports, U.S. consumption, and import penetration for 2008. - more
• India - Higher prices, better realisations may boost overseas sales by 10%. Despite an export duty hike of Rs 1,000 per tonne of chrome ore this budget, the industry estimates a 10 per cent rise in exports as the margins are still better than domestic sales. - more
• Indonesia - PT International Nickel Indonesia, or Inco, expects its nickel output to rise to 77,000-79,000 metric tons in 2008, exceeding its previous record of 76,675 tons set last year, a senior company official said Wednesday. - more
• India - After an intense battle with the government on rising prices, steel makers on Tuesday called truce by agreeing to stop exports, forego DEPB benefits and supported reducing import duty on the alloy. - more  another
• South Korea - According to steel magazine Metal Bulletin on March 26, POSCO produced 32,800,000 tons of steel during the one year period last year and ranked 4th in the world after ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel Corp. and JFE. - more
• Russia - Russian billionaires Mikhail Prokhorov and Vladimir Potanin have both bid for the 1% stake in OAO Polyus Gold being sold by OAO Norilsk Nickel, the Vedomosti business daily reported Wednesday. - more

  Beginning LME nickel inventory / Overnight Shanghai closing price

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 960 tonnes = 48,582 tonnes (1.49% - 726 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 47,856 net stock level) (charts)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 245500-247000 RMB/t, plus 2250  (charts)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.45/lb 3 month buyer - $13.49/lb (13.27% higher than 12/31/07) (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 65 to 7,619. (chart)
• LME nickel inventories - minus 180-tonnes from Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, no inbound shipments recorded
• US consumer confidence came in lower than expected today, which helped boost the dollar. The graphs show metals were all trading in the green today. On the back of initial market enthusiasm, a report by RBC, that stated nickel inventories should fall this year, helped the trading price of nickel recover sharply from Thursday's slump. LCH.Clearnet raised its initial margins on all LME traded base metals again, and on nickel, the margin will increase from $18,000 per lot to $20,412 per lot (more below) on April 1st. Announced late, this news could add a chill to the market tomorrow, but we don't expect to see this bring about any major swing. At this point, we aren't sure any news is going to put any lasting damper on nickel prices. For the day, three month nickel ended at  $13.38/lb ($29,500/tonne)
• Closing Metals Report - here

  Reports

• TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price Report - pdf here

  Metals up 3 percent on firm equities

• (excerpt) "There is a direct link between stock markets and metal prices," Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said. - more

  Report: Some Base Metals Prices to Fall

• Prices for a number of base metals will decline, according to an RBC Capital Markets analysis released Tuesday, though aluminum prices are expected to continue climbing through 2010. - more

  Purchasing Agents - Possible Delivery Delay?

• There is a lot of talk going around about a one day truck shutdown by independents to protest the high price of fuel. Initially planned by a small cattle trucking firm in Missouri for April 1st, and written about in the Drudge Report, the planned protest has quickly become a national movement, of sorts. Not sure what affect this may have on any shipments, as this is primarily being planned by independents, but be advised there is a lot of talk.

  Commodity Comments

• Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "The global nickel market is seen staying roughly balanced in '08 with inventories essentially unchanged for the year as a whole, says RBC Capital Markets. This follows a deficit of 39,000 metric tons in '06 and then a surplus of over 100,000 tons in '07 on the back of the stainless steel destocking cycle. Nickel inventories will decline in 2Q '08 as stainless production finally rebounds."
• Courtesy MF Global Ed Meir - "Nickel is now at $29,600, up $1050, as prices recoup most of Thursday’s losses. Nonetheless, the price action over the past few days has done little to change the technical picture, which still consists mainly of a sideways drift. Support is just below $28,000, with major resistance at $34,000."

  News Bites

• London - LCH.Clearnet Ltd has, after consultation with LME, decided to change the London SPAN margin parameters for the contracts marked in bold and italic on the attached document. These changes will be made effective from the close of business on Thursday 27 March 2008 and will be reflected in margin calls on Friday 28 March 2008. - more
• China - In a recent report, quoted by Rusmet, Antaike estimates the production of stainless steel in China in 2007 at 48.2% for 300 series stainless steel, 25.9% for 400 series stainless steel, and 25.9% for 200 series stainless steel. If true, this is a large increase in 200 series production from earlier estimates.
• Colombia - Media is reporting that a union leader for the National Union of the Workers of the Industry of Coal, Adolph Gonzalez Mounts, was assassinated by unknown parties last Saturday. SINTRACARBON, as the union is called, represents workers at the Cerrejon Coal Mine. The Cerrejon coal complex in northern Colombia, owned by BHP Billiton, Anglo-American and Glencore/Xstrata is the largest open-pit coal mine in the world. (comment - we have no other knowledge of this situation other than what we are reading, mostly reported by union media, but we can say union leadership in certain countries of South and Central America, can be a very dangerous occupation)
• China - While many Chinese entrepreneurs look to top foreign companies for guidance, Huang Tianwen couldn't find the right business on which to model his company. - more
• Canada - High-School Mining Education in Sudbury - Sofia Gallagher - more
• India - The Corrosion Resistant Delhi Iron Pillar (a 1600 year old iron pillar that won't corrode) - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling up by $.39/lb . Guardian's headline "Dollar resumes fall on US economic worries". Base and precious metals are all trading in the green today, as metals investors dismiss the idea of a commodity bubble burst, and turn last weeks tumble into a short-lived, albeit abrupt, correction. Nickel has recently backed off a nearly $1500/tonne earlier gain, but is showing no signs of returning to a corrective mode....yet.   
• Bloomberg - more
• Globe and Mail - more
• FX Street - more

  Reports

• Behre Dolbear Global Mining News - pdf here
• Reuters Metal Market Weekly - pdf here
• (India) Karvy Comtrade Metals Insight - pdf here
• Article - (India) Iron ore : The Magnet of Industrial prosperity - pdf here  
• Article - (India) India Iron Ore :An Overview - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Correction in commodities likely to be shortlived - more
• Commodity `Bubble' Poised to Burst, Citigroup's Levkovich Says - more
• courtesy Wall Street Journal - "Bulls argue that demand from rapidly developing countries like China and India justifies the high prices. But in reality, commodities have become the last refuge for speculators as other bubbles have popped."

  News Bites

• Japan - Japan’s Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel (NSSC) is set to implement a new chrome-base surcharge for stainless steel on the ground of recent surging chrome prices. - more
• China - China's crude steel production for February increased 7% year on year to 38.88 million mt, according to latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. - more
• Japan - Japan's production of crude steel in February rose 6.5% year on year to 9.809 million mt, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation said last week. - more
• Brazil - Brazil's mining giant Vale is looking for co-investors from Asia and the Middle East to expand and diversify its operations abroad, the company's financial director, Fabio Barbosa said on Monday. - more
• South Korea - courtesy Ria Novosti - "Russia's Finance Ministry has proposed that the country's $1.3 billion Soviet-era debt to South Korea be paid off ahead of schedule, a government source said on Monday. "Under the current agreement, the debt is to be repaid by 2025. It is being proposed that the debt be paid off with commodity deliveries by 2012, or in cash," he said, adding that in the second case the debt could be repaid this year or next."
• Congo - " The saga of the review of mining contracts being carried out by the DRC (the Democratic Republic of Congo) took a new turn last week as the country’s government released the full text of the review, in French only, on its website." - more
• England - Mechel, the Russian metals and mining group, plans to float a $5bn (£2.5bn) ferro-alloys spin-off next year, if it is successful with its bid for Oriel Resources, a smaller, UK-based rival. - more
• South Africa - "Nearly 20,000 South Africans have been displaced by mining giant Anglo American in its search for platinum, a BBC File on 4 investigation has found." - more

  Beginning LME nickel inventory / Overnight Shanghai closing price

•   London Metal Exchange -  minus 180 tonnes = 47,622 tonnes (1.32% - 630 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 46,992 net stock level) (charts)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 243000-245000 RMB/t, plus 500  (charts)

• A Reuters headline this morning read "Dollar rises vs euro, yen on US housing data". This could potentially put additional downward pressure on LME traded metals tomorrow, although gold was selling higher today. Nickel was down in Japan, down in India, and flat in Shanghai overnight. Equity markets were up, which could be good for you if your invested in a mining company stock. From the base metal standpoint, this optimism could see some of that fund money that has poured into commodities recently, transferred into other markets.

  Talks at Colombia's ferronickel mine stalled-union

• Labor talks at Colombia's Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine, which produces 4 percent of the world's nickel, were stalled on Monday as a strike by workers stretched into its 26th day, a union official said. - more (update)

  Reports

• Germany - recently released figures by the German Federal Statistics estimate stainless steel production in that country will slip by 16% in 2007, compared to 2006 figures (1.33 million tons compared to 1.6 million tons in 2206). Based on the first 11 months, German stainless steel production is approximately 69% austenitic, and 31% ferritic. Thru November, austenitic production was running at 917 thousand tons, compared to 987 in 2006, and production of ferritic totalled 407 thousand tons, compared to 433 in 2006. According to Focus Rostfree, a German metals publication, production of stainless steel recovered strongly in the last quarter of 2007, and more than doubled production figures of the 3rd quarter.
• Nickel Projects - (status on some of the larger projects)
  Australia - Ravensthorpe (L) is scheduled to begin production this quarter, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tonnes of nickel per year
  Turkey - Caldag (L) is scheduled to begin production later this year, with an annual production capacity of 20,400 tonnes of nickel per year
  New Caledonia - Goro (L) is scheduled to begin production later this year, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tonnes of nickel per year 
  Brazil - Onca Puma (L) is scheduled to begin production in January 2009, with an annual production capacity of 52,000 tonnes of nickel per year
  Botswana - Activox (L) is scheduled to begin production in 2009, with an annual production capacity of 23,000 tonnes of nickel per year
  Papua New Guinea - (L) Ramu is scheduled to begin production in 2009/10, with an annual production capacity of 33,000 tonnes of nickel per year
  Brazil - Barro Alto (L) is scheduled to begin production in 2010, with an annual production capacity of 36,000 tonnes of nickel per year
  (for reference, the last true 'mega' mine that was opened was Voisey's Bay (S), in 2006)

  News Bites

• Forecast - (excerpt) "Mr. (Jim) Rogers is a long-term bull on commodities, which have recently been hit by a wave of selling pressure, and he reiterated his enthusiasm for them, though he says he wouldn't be a buyer now because they could be subjected to further weakness from forced hedge fund liquidations. " - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• The London Metal Exchange is closed today for Easter holiday. After a week of mayhem in metals, and commodities in general, this week has started off quietly, with most markets in cruise control, waiting for the American markets to open. Dollar is slightly higher, with oil slightly lower.

  Reports

• Haywood Metals & Mining - pdf here
• TD Bank Quarterly Commodity Price Report - pdf here
• (India) Karvy Comtrade Metals Insight - pdf here

  China's 2008 nickel output expected to rise 17% on year: Antaike

• China's nickel output is expected to reach 250,000 mt in 2008, up 17% from 214,000 mt in 2007, an official from Beijing Antaike, the state-run non-ferrous metals information provider said Monday. - more

  Commodity Comments

• China - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals weekly poll of Chinese metal analysts - of 34 analysts responding to this weeks poll, 10 (29%) expected the price to rise, 11 (32%) felt the price would stay about the same, and the remaining 13 (38%) expected the price of nickel to fall in Shanghai this week.
• Copyright/courtesy Recycling International - "Rotterdam prices for 304 stainless steel scrap have increased to USS 2650 per tonne, while 316 scrap has been stable at USS 4050. Ferritic 430 scrap (17% chromium) has advanced to USS 450 per tonne while 409 scrap (13% chromium) has improved to USS 400."

  News Bites

• China - The following are tables of import and export data for copper, nickel, aluminum, alumina, bauxite, lead, zinc, tin, and antimony as well as the leading importing and exporting countries from January to February. - more
• Russia - The chief executive of Russian nickel producer OAO Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.RS) Denis Morozov has criticized, in an interview with business daily Kommersant published Monday, aluminum giant United Co. Rusal's handling of its move to take over Norilsk. - more
• United States - The antidumping case has blocked the import of stainless pipe and tube from China to the US, and the prices of stainless pipe and tube are expected to rise again in the future. - more
• China - At a time when China could prove an ally in Rio Tinto's effort to stave off BHP Billiton's takeover, the mining giant's boss, Tom Albanese, has signalled he wants to pursue more joint ventures with Chinese companies. - more
• China - Declining export growth, notably affected by the U.S. credit crunch, is likely to drag China's GDP growth down to 10.5 percent this year, still above official target of 8 percent, a leading university research paper said on Monday. - more
• China - Xinhua cited Mr Wen Jiabao Premier of Japan as saying that the year 2008 may be the most difficult year for Chinese economy, largely due to growing uncertainties both inside and outside the country. - more
• South Korea - A South Korean consortium, including companies such as Daewoo International Corp (047050.KS: Quote, Profile, Research), won a $184 million project to develop a nickel mine in Madagascar, Korea Resources Corp said on Sunday.

  Beginning LME nickel inventory / Overnight Shanghai closing price

•   London Metal Exchange - closed for Easter holiday (charts)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 242000-245000 RMB/t, plus/minus 0   (charts)

  Mining giant BHP Billiton has joined Rio Tinto in talking tough on seeking higher iron ore prices as China seeks to put pressure on the Australians to cave in by delaying some high-priced Australian spot sales into the country. - more  (comment - BHP and Rio may want to send their key people to see Dale Carnegie)

  Vale, the Brazilian mining group, is building technical schools in Brazil and placing recruitment advertisements overseas, in a further sign of the scarcity of geologists and engineers among the world's miners in recent years as rising commodity prices have driven growth in the sector. - more

  It is reported that on March 20th 2008 many coal companies were willing to raise coal prices and Shanxi Lu’an Group, Yangquan Coal Industry Group, Datong Coal Mine Group and Shanxi Coking Coal Group and some coal mines have already requested coal price to rise up by CNY 30 per tonne to CNY 50 per tonne. - more

  We may never know for sure whether the Federal Reserve's rescue of Bear Stearns averted a seizure of the $516 trillion derivatives system, the ultimate Chernobyl for global finance. - more

  Looking at the mergers and acquisitions in the resources sector, it's easy to forget there is a global credit crunch. - more

  There are plans to develop a molybdenum mine near Crested Butte. But is one of the partners in that venture about to pull the plug? That’s the conjecture of John A. Kaiser, an analyst who tracks high-risk Canadian securities in his review of Kobex Resources, a firm based in Vancouver, B.C. - more (story 1/2 way down page)

  It is reported that Baoshan Iron & Steel has signed long term ferrochrome purchase contract with Sinochem Hebei recently which would boost their cooperation in reliable FeCr supply and build up strategic partnership. - more

  Financial world's woes are spilling over to Main Street, and threatening Canada - more

  China is likely to impose further controls on steel exports if they rebound, which will result in a decline in Chinese steel exports over the whole year, a senior industrial official told Interfax in Beijing yesterday. - more

  Despite this week's decline in some benchmark metal price indexes, analysts say underlying fundamentals will keep pushing up the prices of many metals, ..... - more

  The Canadian mining sector must look at solutions including consolidation, better use of technology and more creative recruitment strategies in order to keep pace with unprecedented world demand for its minerals and metals, says the CEO of a multinational mining and resources group - more

  The State Duma, the Russian parliament's lower house, approved Friday the second reading of a bill seeking to restrict foreign investment in strategic industries. - more

  Rio Tinto, fighting a takeover bid by rival Anglo-Australian miner BHP Billiton, would like to work with Chinese state firms to develop mining projects around the world, Chief Executive Tom Albanese said on Saturday. - more

  Rozhetskin was previously executive vice chairman of Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s largest mining company and his investment company LV Finance used to own a quarter of Russia’s third largest mobile operator MegaFon. - more

  National Mining Association Mining Week - pdf here

• Clarke and Dawe: the comic duo you can bank on - here
• Whether you like him or not, a memorable speech - Obama's complete speech here
• Movies, tv shows and documentaries online - here
• Journeyman Pictures Video's Online - here

  Commodities Drop, Rally in Dollar, Stocks Vindicate Bernanke

• The biggest commodity collapse in at least five decades may signal Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has revived confidence in U.S. financial firms. - more  (comment - before you pop the champagne, read this here. The weight enhanced lady has yet to sing)

  Commodities retreat, punished by cash raising

• Commodities from energy to metals to grains took another steep drop Thursday after a reassessment of the world's growth and inflation prospects triggered a widespread cash-out, raising this question: Is the rally over? - more

  News Bites

• China - "China is likely to sell 27 percent less steel abroad this year, largely due to the government's efforts to curb its exports, an industry group said on Thursday." - more
• South Korea - "POSCO, the world's fourth-largest steel maker, will likely raise its steel product prices by at least 17 percent in April, a local newspaper quoted an unnamed POSCO official as saying on Friday." - more
• New Caledonia - "Official figures show nickel ore production on New Caledonia slipped from 498 tonnes in January 2007, to 465 tonnes in January 2008. Exports of nickel ore increased 185 tonnes in January 2007, to 391 tonnes this past January. Exports of saprolite ore increased from 131 tonnes to 225 tonnes, while exports of laterite ore more than tripled, from 54 tonnes last January, to 167 tonnes this January."
• Investors - "I don’t want to add to the panic, but one thing that is getting little in the way of attention here is the question of whether investors should have investments in their name or street name." - more and another (courtesy IV forum)

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• London Metal Exchange is closed till Tuesday, March 25th. My, my what a few days makes. Last week analysts were screaming buy as many commodities as you could, and now the headline could read "Nickel in Pickle, Gold is Old, Lead is Dead, Copper's a Flopper, No Win with Tin, Zinc Stinks, Oil Spoils, Wheat Gets Beat, and Nothing Rhymes with Aluminum, etc, etc, etc". We would strongly advice writers and pontificators who are proclaiming the commodities "bubble" has burst, to look back over the past year, and review prior 'bursts' closely. With most of the reports coming out next week will give us a better picture of the recession, and not too much in the way of inflationary reports, we could see the downward shift continue at least another week. But we feel there is a better than 50-50 chance that this will turn out to be no more than a minor price correction.

  Reports

• BMO Capital Markets "The Goods" - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Comment - "The only thing more irritating to users than rising nickel prices, are diving nickel prices. It is exasperating to those who must buy their nickel in advance, by the tonne, and then watch it slowly lose value every day it sits in transit, whether on a boat, or a train. Downstream users must juggle their purchasing decisions and are frustrated by the fact that business has become less a pursuit of forecasts, and more a spin of the wheel. When prices are stabile, or even on a gradual increase or decline, the supply chain plays on an even keel. In days like these, it is the smartest, quickest, leanest, most proactive, that will win in the game of business. When prices are on the dive, business becomes less tactical, and more of a flip of a coin, a hope and a prayer. Will nickel drop more tomorrow, or has it bottomed? Will the inventory we have on hand, which lost value today, re-coup or lose more tomorrow? How long can we guarantee a stainless steel quote to the customer... months, days, or hours? Metals traders may want to remember last year. Last summer proved, that nickel in freefall, is the quickest way to dry up stainless steel demand."  
• Dow Jones - "Broad-based fund liquidation is sending commodity prices into freefall Thursday, wiping the speculative froth out of the markets and leading some industry participants to say it's the beginning of the end for the investment-fueled bull run." - more

  Baosteel raises steel product prices for May 2008

• Baosteel has announced its price change details for May productions, with prices of HRC and CRC raised by CNY 300 per tonne and CNY 400 per tonne respectively a hike of 6% and 7% from April prices unveiled on February 25th 2008. - more

  News Bites

• China - (courtesy IATS) "In 2007, Jinchuan produced 110 thousand tons of nickel, and this year forecast that level to reach 120 thousand tons. It is reported that over the next three to five years, the company intends to continue the reconstruction of production facilities and bring production up to 150 thousand tonnes of nickel per year. 50% of raw materials needed to produce nickel, the company has to import."
• 2008 Union Labor Contracts - (courtesy Reuters) Union contracts expiring in 2008 at nickel facilities, not including those passed -
  June 1, 2008 - Nikkelverk Nickel Refinery in Norway - Xstrata
  Sept 15, 2008 - Thompson Nickel Mine, Smelter, Refinery in Canada - Vale
  Nov 30, 2008 - Falcondo Nickel Mine in Dominican Republic - Xstrata
• China - "China does not set limits on spot iron ore import, although a copy of iron ore import contract is required for entering in the records, according to Luo Bingsheng, executive vice chairman of China Iron and Steel Association (CISA)." - more
• USA - "Russia's OAO Severstal Friday said it would become the fourth-largest steel maker in the U.S. after agreeing to buy ArcelorMittal's Sparrows Point production facility for $810 million." - more
• India - "India on Thursday introduced in parliament a new mining policy it hopes will lure foreign and domestic investment, but the document made no mention of changes to royalty payments demanded by mineral-rich states." - more
• Japan - Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 14th March 2008 - more

•   Jinchang - Nickel Capital of China (Google Map)
  The history of the Jinchuan Nickel Mine - poorly translated here  original Chinese here

  Beginning LME nickel inventory / Overnight Shanghai closing price

•   London Metal Exchange - closed   (charts)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 242000-245000 RMB/t, minus 6000   (charts)

• Official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $12.83/lb 3 month buyer - $12.92/lb (8.48% higher than 12/31/07) (chart)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 117 to 7,684. (chart)
• LME nickel inventories - plus 276 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 42 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse
• Here is a headline that will make nickel buyers roll their eyes - "Commodity prices part speculative - IMF". Having watched this market closely for years, our first reaction was "YOU THINK!!!". Traders were in a pessimistic mood today, with commodities across the board in a corrective mode. You have to get a kick out of these analysts that say inflationary concerns are lessening when oil, which was selling for $60/barrel last year, "plummets" from $110 to $100 a barrel. We have not heard the last of inflation. Which means we have not heard the last of money pouring into commodities as a protection 'from' inflation. With LME markets closed tomorrow and Monday, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts on Tuesday. More correction in store? Or have we reached the valley with more hills ahead? Stay tuned. The next potential news to give nickel a bump down, based on fundamentals, will be any news that the Cerro Matoso nickel strike has ended. However, considering inventories have increased over the last three days, traders may have already figured this into the trading price. For the day and trading week, three month nickel ended at $12.95/lb ($28,550/tonne)
• Closing Metals Report - more
• For those who will be on Good Friday break tomorrow, we wish you a very nice weekend!

  Commodities crater on inflation outlook, economy
                 Fed's warning on inflation, renewed economic fears take steam out of rally

• Prices in commodities took a dive Wednesday, one day after the Federal Reserve highlighted its inflation concerns as it cut rates and indirectly took away some of the fizz from the recent commodity rally. - more

  Sumitomo Metal to Raise Stainless Product Price

• Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd announced March 18, 2008, that it has begun negotiations to revise its pricing for every stainless product for clients in Japan. The company is seeking to raise the base prices 10%, targeting stainless thin plate, thick plate and shaped steel products. - more

  News Bites

• Australia - Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc, locked in tense iron ore price negotiations with Asian steel mills, said a sharp rise in iron pellet prices achieved by rival Vale "would not go unnoticed." - more
• China - A SENIOR Chinese steel official has blasted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto for being "dishonest" and "improper", as their row over billions of dollars of iron ore shipments edges closer to a trade war. - more
• Commentary - THE sharemarket's latest dip underlines how hard it is to pick the bottom of a bear market, and introduces something new to fret about: the possibility that Australia's resources sector is also beating a retreat. - more
• Commentary - The two commodities which are the principal material pillars of the world economy and vital to its functioning are iron ore and oil. Iron ore is principally used in the production of a variety of steels and unlike oil, whose price is benefiting from production arguably having peaked, iron ore resources will last well into the 22nd century. - more
• Medical - Chromium is OK when it's on your car bumper but not so OK when it's in your workplace air or your drinking water. That's because chromium, in some of its forms, causes cancer. - more
• Dow Jones - Top base metal stories of the day - more

  Morning Briefing (