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Tuesday, March 31
Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $5.13/lb ($11,315/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around
unchanged. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell
on Monday and started the last day of March just over the 229,800 tonne
level. Compared to the last working day of February, LME inventories
fell almost 6000 tonnes, after gaining approximately 40,000 tonnes the
prior month. Equity markets are mostly trading higher after
surprisingly strong PMI numbers from China were released. Base metals
traders remain skeptical, as do we. Purchasing managers PMI are
supposed to track business experiencing expansion in business compared
to contraction. Considering China was closed for business in February,
it makes sense that most are seeing a rebound in business, albeit
paltry in many cases. So the numbers, in our opinion, are sending a
false positive and do not reflect the overall health of manufacturing
in China. But good news is hard to find these days, so we will take
what we can get. The Phillippines shut down another island, this one a
big one for the nickel industry. When this port officially closes for
covid-19 containment, the country will have shut down about 2/3 of it's
nickel ore shipments. With Indonesia halting low content ore on January
1st, this could support pricing down the road as Chinese stockpiles
start to dwindle. China has a molybdenum mine leaking from a tailings
dam, reminding us all of the deadly collapsed we witnessed in Brazil a
few years ago. And Bank of America has updated its nickel forecast for
2020 below. We tried to publish at least one update without mentioning
the elephant in the room, but the Philippines made that impossible.
Stay safe and have a great day!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.40/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - LME copper rises on China data, but set for worst month since 2011 - more
Monday's market review - Aluminium hits four-year lows,
fears of deep recession reinforced - Aluminum prices hit four-year lows
on Monday as worries about prolonged shutdowns around the world due to
the coronavirus reinforced fears of a deep recession and tumbling
demand for industrial metals. - more
Philippines' nickel mining hub to suspend operations due to coronavirus
- Mining operations in the Philippines’ southern province of Surigao
del Norte, home to most of the country’s nickel mines, will be
suspended from April 1 as part of efforts to prevent the spread of the
coronavirus, two mining companies said on Tuesday. - more
BofA sees nickel taking big COVID-19 hit - Bank
of America has warned of the potential for a nickel supply overhang
emerging on what was already a lacklustre stainless-steel market before
the COVID-19 pandemic struck. - more
Coronavirus Reshapes Stainless Steel Sector - Global stainless steel
markets are being reshaped by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. - more
Tailings dam spill at Chinese molybdenum miner threatens local water
supply - China’s northeastern province of Heilongjiang said a tailings
dam leak at a molybdenum mine over the weekend threatened to
contaminate the local water supply and that it had launched an
emergency response. - more
Indonesian anti-graft enforcers set their sights on a new target:
corporations - For years, this eastern Indonesian village of fishermen
and seaweed farmers simmered with anger over the pollution of its
coastline by a nickel mining company. - more
Eramet: Fully committed to face the Covid-19 health situation - In
the current context of the
Coronavirus pandemic marked by the uncertainty
in the global economy, Eramet is fully committed to tackling
developments in the situation. - pdf here
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $5.16/lb ($11,370/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading unchanged .
Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses rose on Friday
and started this week just under the 230,200 tonne level. Cancelled
warrants remain in the 24% range, where they spent all last week. The
U.S. Dollar is trading lower this morning, but so far, it is failing to
boost the trading price of nickel. European and Asian equity markets
traded or are trading, lower, while US equity futures are mixed at the
moment. Less than a week ago, President Trump announced
he wanted to see America reopen by Easter. Yesterday, he extended the
social distancing guidelines until April 30th. Industry news continues
to be muted, with daily operations remaining at the mercy of the virus.
We started the weekend
with the US crossing the 100,000 case level earlier Friday. Sometime
this morning, we
will cross the 150,000 level, with Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, telling CNN we
could see 100 to 200,000 fatalities in the US, and millions infected.
And if that isn't mind boggling enough - by the end of 'last' Monday,
the US
had moved into 3rd place in the world with 43,449 total cases and 545
deaths. This morning, our country, now number one with a huge lead, has
seen nearly 2,500 of its citizens killed
by this deadly virus, and a total of 142,700+ cases. That's just
over the past week! And the numbers keep telling us we have yet to see
the worse. Two days left to a brutal March, and on Wednesday, we get a
fresh start. Stay well, and have a great week.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.41/lb
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Base metals fall as coronavirus shutdowns stoke recession fears - more
Coronavirus By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus by John Hopkins - here
Do you have a Kinsa smart thermometer? Here is what they are telling officials - more
Fight the Pandemic, Save the Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu - more
Coronavirus: Chinese scientist advises people in Europe, US to wear face masks in public - more
Coronavirus: a global consumer default wave is just getting started in China - more
Friday's market review - Copper steadies near 4-year lows
as supply shutdowns mount - Copper prices stabilised close to 4-year
lows on Friday as disruption to supply caused by shutdowns of mines and
shipping routes began to offset the huge hit to demand from the
coronavirus outbreak. - more
Factbox: Coronavirus hits steel, metals and mining with diverse price
impacts - All steel and metals commodities have been impacted by the
escalating coronavirus crisis, although their price behavior has varied
as both demand and supply scenarios change. - more
EU's AD duties may be positive for Taiwanese stainless steel plants -
Last week the European Union (EU) announced that from the next April
12th of 2020, it would apply anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese,
Indonesian and Taiwanese hot-rolled stainless steel products. - more
Collapsing auto sector a body blow for industrial metals: Andy Home -
France’s Recylex has just announced the temporary closure of both its
German lead smelter and two battery-recycling plants, one in Germany
and one in France. - more
QA with Anglo American, Jinduicheng Molybdenum and Million Link (from
recent Metalshub webinar) - Q: What is your forecast for Q2 stainless
steel production in China?and What is the impact of the oil price drop
on nickel cash production costs and nickel demand? - more
Caterpillar Announces Updates and Response to COVID-19 and Global
Business Conditions - The continued spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is
starting to impact Caterpillar’s supply chain, a possibility the
company disclosed in its risk factors included in the company's Form
10-K filed on February 19, 2020. - more
U.S. Steel outlines 'difficult but necessary’ response to Covid-19, layoffs will occur - more
Nickel closed Thursday's trading
session at $5.07/lb ($11,175/tonne). Indicators
at 6:30 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.06/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell
slightly on Thursday and started today just under the 229,500 tonne
level. Mine closures might be helping support nickel prices, or a
stronger Euro could be helping. At least for the moment, nickel prices
are trading higher, but remain rangebound. Sometime between 12 pm and 4
pm EST
yesterday, the number of total cases of Covid-19 in the United states
passed both Italy and China, when new cases suddenly spiked higher.
Worldwide cases leaped over the 500,000 level earlier in the day, and
will exceed over the 550,000 level sometime today. The
U.S. will go over the 100,000 case level before the weekend is
over, and if we have a similar increase in new cases on Friday that we
saw on Thursday, we will pass that level today. The good and bad news
is only 1,300 Americans have died so far.
While lower than many countries, using a term like "only" is insultive
to the friends and family of the victims, who were denied a last few
moments with their loved one, and denied a typical funeral. Last Friday
we woke up to the
news the world was at 244,582 total cases worldwide, while here in the
United States, we rated sixth worldwide with a total of 13,801 total
cases and 207 deaths. Yesterday, the US gained another 17,000+ cases.
In one day. We are seeing the media mentioning cases are doubling every
3 days. From roughly 14,000 to start last Friday to over 85,000 to
start this Friday, in a total of 7 days, is much worse than doubling
every 3 days. 3.3 million Americans filed from unemployment last week,
which not only set a new one week record, but was nearly five times
higher than the previous record. That said, the news is not very good
these days. Like the rest of the world, Americans are in shock, and
concerned what tomorrow will bring. Business owners, those that remain
open, worry about their supply base, their customer base, logistics,
and their employee base. But those that remain open are the lucky ones.
To all, we hope you find joy and health this weekend. We are still
climbing this difficult mountain together, but we will reach the summit
soon, and then the ride down begins. Hang in there, you are not alone.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.43/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Supply worries drive lead prices to highest in over a week - more
New Economy In, Old Strategies Out A Fresh Look at MES - more
Virus News and Numbers
Coronavirus By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus by John Hopkins - here
Positive COVID-19 tests per 100,000 residents - county map in this article
Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal - more
Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time - more
Coronavirus: China to ban most foreign arrivals in effort to block contagion’s spread - more
Thursday's market review - Copper slips as coronavirus hit
to metals outweighs U.S. stimulus - Copper prices fell on Thursday as
volatile markets and a hit to metals demand from the coronavirus
pandemic eclipsed the boost from a massive U.S. stimulus package. - more
Glencore closes some operations in four countries over coronavirus
curbs - Glencore PLC on Thursday halted a number of smaller mines due
to government restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus but
added its larger operations were not materially impacted. - more
Two senior managers at Russia's Nornickel leave - Russian nickel and
palladium producer Norilsk Nickel GMKN.MM said on Friday two senior
vice presidents, including Sergey Batekhin, who was in charge of sales,
had left the company. - more
Many Businesses Cautious About Restarting Economy - President
Donald Trump wants the country open for business by mid-April, but some
experts warn it's not as easy as flipping a switch. - more
The Sales Contrarion in B2B Distribution - ID chats with sales
management consultant and author Justin Roff-Marsh to get his
perspective on how distributors can overhaul their sales processes to
maximize results. - more
Zimbabwe cuts rates, miners send coronavirus distress signals -
Zimbabwe’s central bank cut its main lending rate to 25% on Thursday
and set a fixed exchange rate as part of measures to support the
economy against the coronavirus pandemic. - more
Nickel closed Wednesday's trading
session at $5.11/lb ($11,280/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.01/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Wednesday and started today just over the 229,500 tonne level. Nickel
trading has quieted the few days, with nickel trading in a $300/tonne
range all week. Ambatovy in Madagascar joins the growing list of nickel
producing mines that are shutting down because of concerns over the
pandemic. Once again, there is little to talk about except for the
virus. The United States looks to overtake Italy, and China, in the
next 24 hours, with more cases than any other country. It took the top
spot for active cases yesterday and now leads #2 Italy by 10,000+.
China has less than 4,000 active cases so seclusion and South Korea has
less than 5,000 so better times are ahead. A lot of how quickly will
depend on the gamble numerous state governors are taking, by refusing
to implement stay at home orders in their states. If it pays off, it
could help their recovery to go much faster than those who shut down.
The odds are however, not in their favor, and their spike could come
after those who closed earlier, and thus their recovery will lag behind
the others. It was one week ago today, that California was the first
state to mandate a statewide stay at home order, and with an incubation
period that lasts up to 14 days, simple mathematics tells us the worst
is yet to come. Have a great day. For those of you still working, enjoy
the lighter traffic, and stay safe.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.45/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London copper retreats as demand worries persist, market weighs U.S. stimulus - more
U.S. Imports of Stainless Steel Mill Products - more
Virus News and Numbers
Coronavirus By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus by John Hopkins - here
Coronavirus latest: more than 20,000 dead as UN warns threat to ‘whole of humanity’ - more
Coronavirus: no agreement on Pompeo’s ‘Wuhan virus’ terminology as G7 foreign ministers spar over infection source - more
Why are so few Germans dying from the coronavirus? Experts wonder - more
Here's why the coronavirus may be killing more men than women. The US should take note - more
Wednesday's market review - London aluminium snaps 7 days
of losses as some China smelters cut output - London aluminium prices
rose on Wednesday after seven straight sessions of losses, as some
smelters in China trimmed production to cut losses amid the coronavirus
epidemic, but weak demand kept a lid on prices. - more
Stainless steel melt shop production reaches 52.2 million metric tons
in 2019 - The International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) has
released figures for the full year 2019 showing that stainless steel
melt shop production increased by 2.9% year–on–year to 52.2 million
metric tons. - more
Sumitomo to halt operations at mines in Bolivia, Madagascar to prevent
coronavirus spread - Sumitomo Corp will temporarily suspend operation
at its San Cristobal silver-zinc-lead mine in Bolivia and its Ambatovy
nickel mine in Madagascar to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, it
said on Thursday. - more
NAW to Pence: Don't Bypass Distributors in Supply Chain - NAW expressed
to Pence concerns over manufacturers sending critical products direct
to end users amid the COVID-19 crisis. - more
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $5.11/lb ($11,260/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.02/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Tuesday and started today just over the 229,600 tonne level. Nickel
climbed back over the $11,000 tonne level yesterday, and so far,
appears to be holding above this level. The Raglan Nickel Mine in
Canada has bee shut down due to the virus. A shipping magazine had an
article yesterday on the empty cargo carriers laying idle off the
quarantined Philippine island. With Indonesia no longer shipping nickel
ore to China, we suspect if any deficit in supply has the ability to
put a scare into the market, this might be the one to do it. At least
one source said China had enough ore to get it thru mid April. Then
again, getting reliable information from China is not easy, so time
will tell. Based on our estimates, sometime this morning, the US will
pass Italy and have the most 'active' covid-19 cases in the world. And
yet, only half of Americans are under any stay at home order. The
responsibility for this lies with the individual state governors, and
we suspect, it is only a matter of time before some border feuds break
out. The President has advised he would like to re-open America for
business by Easter. We weren't aware the President had 'closed' any
part of America for business, although he could if he so desired. It
was announced Prince Charles was diagnosed positive today, sending
another warning that this illness is no respecter of persons. England's
earlier experiment that the sooner everyone got the virus, the sooner
everyone would recover, proved a deadly failure and on Monday, their
Prime Minister put that entire country on quarantine. As is much of
Western Europe. Stay safe and have a great day! Maybe a little harder these days, but don't let the little bastard beat you!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.47/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London aluminium snaps 7 days of losses on some production cut in China - more
Coronavirus By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus by John Hopkins - here
Italy
showed 54,030 confirmed 'active' covid-19 cases yesterday and will gain
somewhere around 5000 today. The United States showed 52,293 'active'
cases around 6 pm yesterday and will gain around 10,000 new cases
today. Sometime early today, there will be more confirmed 'active' cases in the US than Italy. Both Italy and the US look to exceed China's total case
count (active, deceased and cured) later this week, which totalled 81,747 yesterday according to the World Health Organization. Thousands of covert coronavirus cases go under the radar in Wuhan, Chinese-led researchers say - more
Tuesday's market review - Copper bounces 4% on U.S.
stimulus, but gains seen short-lived - Copper prices rebounded 4% on
Tuesday on the back of a new wave of U.S. economic stimulus and worries
about supply due to the coronavirus, but analysts said the market’s
gains were likely to be fleeting. - more
China Jan-Feb nickel ore imports fall 5.1% y/y as Indonesia ban begins
- China’s nickel ore imports in the first two months of 2020 fell 5.1%
from a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations based on customs
data released on Wednesday, as the ban on exports from top miner
Indonesia came into force - more
London Metal Exchange says it can approve warehouses remotely - The
London Metal Exchange has plans to register warehouses that want to
accept metal traded on the exchange by remotely checking they meet the
criteria, should the need arise, the LME told Reuters on Tuesday. - more
Nunavik’s Raglan mine put into care and maintenance due to COVID-19 -
The Raglan mine in Nunavik has announced that it will mothball its
operations and send nearly all its workers home, as it goes into care
and maintenance due to COVID-19 concerns. - more
Steel imports down 21% YTD through February -
Based on preliminary Census Bureau data, the American Iron and Steel
Institute reported that the U.S. imported a total of 1,505,000 net tons
(NT) of steel in February 2020, including 1,344,000 net tons (NT) of
finished steel (down 52.2% and 18.4%, respectively, vs. January final
data). - more
Metal Prices Boosted By A South African Move To Close Its Mines - A
major “outage” event, the closure of South Africa’s big mining industry
for 21 days as a precautionary measure to stave off the spread of the
coronavirus, is expected to flow into the prices of a wide range of
minerals and metals. - more
Stainless steel occupies great part in China's new export tax rebate
policy - The Chinese government published a statement on March 17th,
which affirmed the government would provide a more percentage on its
export tax rebate policy on some products, of which stainless steel
represented a quite high percentage. - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $4.94/lb ($10,890/tonne). Indicators at 6:10 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.12/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Monday and started the day just over the 230,200 tonne level. Nickel,
along with just about everything else trade able, is trading higher
this morning. Markets are desperately looking for good news and there
are hints that the worst may be passing in Italy. If you look at our
virus section below, you will see why we think the optimism behind this
news will be short lived. According to French media, Glencore is
shutting
down production at their Koniambo mine in New Caledonia in order to
protect employees from the covid-19 outbreak. I have yet to find a
secondary source for this news, so hopefully we are giving you reliable
information. Nickel traded below the $11,000/tonne level yesterday, for
the first time since January 2019. It's rebounding today and while it
is way, way too early to call it, the industry is desperately looking
to nickel traders to find a floor - preferably sooner than later.
Social distancing has given way to stay at home orders, which, while
still being resisted by many governors, is gaining traction every day.
Have a safe day.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.50/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper rebounds on Fed stimulus, supply concerns - more
When the Surgeon General of the United States told NBC yesterday
that it was going to get bad this week, he wasn't kidding. Based on our
research of the numbers, Italy's daily gains in confirmed infections is
running around 5000 new cases per day and appears to be leveling off.
The United States is currently running around 10,000 new cases per
day, and that number is growing. Considering Italy only
leads the United States by approximately 20,000 cases, it is very
possible that by weeks end, the United States could have more total
cases than any other country in the world, except China. On Monday,
China only had 5,120 cases still listed as active. The United States,
still rather new to the outbreak, had 42,609 active cases yesterday,
second only to Italy with 50,418. These figures are given per numbers
given on worldometers linked above.
Coronavirus: Strict new curbs on life in UK announced by PM - more
Monday's market review - LME ring goes dark as aluminum
lurches to 45-month low - The London Metal Exchange open-outcry ring
went dark for the first time since World War II on Monday and aluminum
prices slumped to their lowest since June 2016 on fears of a severe
global recession. - more
Coronavirus supply disruptions are the next worry for metals: Russell -
The spread of the coronavirus across the world has focused metals
markets on the risks to demand, causing prices to plummet, but so far
investors have largely ignored the mounting threats to supply. - more
Service Centers Essential Business in Illinois - MD Metals, a Bedford
Park, Ill., metal service center, has been informed it qualifies as an
essential business under Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s state at home
executive order. - more
Metals Buckle Under Virus Double Whammy - Lockdowns imposed to control
the coronavirus have battered China’s appetite for everything from coal
to copper, pushing stockpiles of raw materials higher and global prices
lower. - more
February 2020 crude steel production - World crude steel production for
the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel)
was 143.3 million tonnes (Mt) in February 2020, a 2.8% increase
compared to February 2019. - more
Outokumpu’s business operation not affected by novel coronavirus
epidemic - Outokumpu, the largest stainless steel manufacturer in
Europe, said the epidemic outbreak of novel coronavirus hasn’t affected
its business operation, and the current order volume was even stronger
than before, which might be due to cautious customers not to order from
foreign countries, and the business in the Americas continued growing.
- more
MN Court of Appeals sends PolyMet permit back to MPCA - The Minnesota
Court of Appeals sent an air-emissions permit for the PolyMet
copper-nickel mine back to state regulators for further review on
Monday, giving another victory to environmental groups who oppose the
project. - more
Our Tuesday update will be delayed by a few hours. This may happen
periodically on Tuesdays in the coming weeks.
Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $5.09/lb ($11,225/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.08/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell
slightly on Friday and started the week just over the 230,500 tonne
level. Guy Wolf, head of market analytics for Marex Spectron stated on
Friday that "risks now lie to the upside not the downside." We suspect
Mr Wolf possibly jumped the gun with this forecast, with the price of
nickel barely holding onto the $11,000/tonne level today.
Realistically, one would think nickel can only trade so low, before
more mines shut down and cut off supply. But we are traveling in
uncharted waters, and demand is drying up as fast as supply, and market
analysts, who were debating the word recession just months ago, seem to
be using the word depression now with alarming regularity. We did a
comparison over the past Monday's in the US, as covid-19 threatened,
then entered US shores. Not that many of you aren't already worried
enough, but our past can sometimes warn us of the future potential.
It's Monday and the last full week of March. And what an ugly March it
has been so far. May this week bring us all better news than last, and
health to all as well.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.53/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Base metals tumble as virus-related curbs deepen slowdown fears - more
Sucden Financial Quarterly Metals Report - pdf here
SMM - China imported 1.38 million mt of nickel ore and concentrate in Feb, down 48% MOM, down 32% YOY
The Updated List of All Pennsylvania Businesses That Gov. Wolf Ordered Closed - more (list) note - while your business may be classified as essential, many of your customers may not be.
Virus News and Numbers
Coronavirus Pandemic - By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus Dashboard - here
Monday Jan 20th - United States tests confirm first known case of
Covid-19 in Snohomish County, Washington, a male having returned from
Wuhan, China on Jan 15th and seeking medical attention on the 19th. (made public on Jan 21st)
Monday Feb 3rd - United States has 11 known cases (Italy has 2 cases, South Korea has 15)
Monday March 2nd - United States has 84 known cases (Diamond Princess ship has 705, South Korea has 4,212, Italy has 1,694 - runs on toilet paper begin in Washington state)
Monday March 9th - United States has 551 known cases (South Korea has 7,478, Italy has 7,375, on the 11th Tom Hanks reported he and his wife infected and NBA suspends season.)
Monday March 16th - United States has 4,325 cases, now ranks 8th most cases in world (South Korea has 8,236, Italy has 27,980)
Sunday March 22nd - United States has 35,468 cases,
passes Spain to rank 3rd most cases in world, only Italy and China have/had more
cases.
Japanese flu drug 'clearly effective' in treating coronavirus, says China - more
A third of coronavirus cases may be ‘silent carriers’, classified Chinese data suggests - more
Friday's market review - Copper marks steepest weekly fall
since 2011 as virus chill bites - Copper suffered its biggest weekly
loss since September 2011 as concerns mounted about the impact of the
coronavirus on the global economy and dampened the outlook for metals
demand. - more
COVID-19 to swell nickel, platinum surpluses; palladium deficit to
shrink: Nornickel - Russia's Nornickel has revised its
supply-demand outlook in light of the coronavirus pandemic and now
expects much higher nickel and platinum surpluses than previously and a
less severe palladium deficit. - more
China Steel Output Rises Despite Oversupply Amid Coronavirus - China’s
steel production continues to expand notwithstanding disruptions from
the coronavirus pandemic. - more
Preparing for the worst, hoping for the best - Keeping employees
healthy keeps shops viable in this sea of economic uncertainty during
the COVID-19 pandemic - more
Jack Keough: Strong M&A Activity Will Continue in 2020 - A recent
industry survey suggests that 52% of senior executives expect their
companies to actively pursue M&A in 2020. - more
Nickel closed yesterday's trading
session at $5.10/lb ($11,250/tonne). Indicators at 7:50 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.11/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell
slightly on Thursday and started today just over the 230,700 tonne
level. With confusion reigning the day in the nickel and stainless
steel industries, there really isn't a lot to talk about. Everyone is
in the same boat, not knowing what tomorrow will bring, but in our
competitive world, very few are willing to admit the troubles they are
experiencing, knowing to do so, could open a notch in their armor for
competitors to pounce on. So miners, manufacturers and distributors
alike struggle on in seeming solitude, sharing difficulties with
others, but unwilling to admit them. So, while in a world of social
distancing, you may feel what you are going thru makes you feel very
alone, you are not. Every house, or apartment, you pass, is a family
with a story of their own. And every business competitor you have, is
experiencing the same issues you are. You are not on your own out
there. So hang in there, it will get better. It's the weekend. If you
can get outside and stay away from others, do so. It's springtime here
in the States and a time of rebirth. Stay safe and enjoy your weekend.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.56/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper plunges for 4th day on LME, Shanghai limit down as selloff resumes - more
US government is preparing for coronavirus pandemic that could last up
to 18 months and 'include multiple waves of illness' - more
Coronavirus kills 3 family members and sickens 4 others after a dinner in New Jersey - more
Coronavirus infects faster and lasts longer than Sars, raising new containment challenges, Chinese studies suggest - more
Yesterday's market review - Copper hits lowest since Jan
2016 on deepening coronavirus fears - Copper languished near four-year
lows on Thursday as the spread of the coronavirus intensified fears
about global economic growth and demand for industrial metals. - more
Fitch lowers mineral output forecasts for 2020 in light of mine
stoppages - Research agency Fitch Solutions has revised downwards some
of its mineral production forecasts for this year, in light of
increasing operational disruptions while Covid-19 continues to spread
globally. - more
Stainless steel producer Aperam to pause production at some European
lines - Aperam has decided to halt output temporarily at some of its
European production lines as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, the
Luxembourg-based stainless steel producer said Thursday. - more
The unprecedented disruption of COVID-19: What distributors should do
next - Most of us have been through natural disasters and recessions,
but coronavirus, or COVID-19, is a new kind of disruption. - more
Managing Through Crisis: Surviving COVID-19 - Businesses face daunting
operational challenges as the rapid spread of COVID-19 causes employees
to call in sick and customer counts to dwindle. - more
Distributors Must Forge Through the Chaos - This
is truly March Madness, and for the worst reason. Over the past decade,
the term “First-World problem” rose as an Internet meme to mean a
trivial or minor problem typically only experienced in First-World
nations. - more
Glencore putting up to $30M more in Minnesota copper-nickel mining
project - The money will be used by Polymet Mining to fight legal
battles over the proposed mine in northeastern Minnesota. - more(sign up pop up will disappear in 15 seconds)
Nickel closed yesterday's trading
session at $5.17/lb ($11,395/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.13/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Wednesday and started today just below the 230.800 tonne level. Brutal
and depressing. There does not seem to be a bottom to nickel prices. If
this drop continues, we will see more nickel mines shutting down and
the demand squeeze we are experiencing will be followed by a supply
squeeze. While China is slowly recovering, the rest of the world has
yet to see the worst, so much of their export market is evaporating.
Since we are in uncharted waters, it is nearly impossible to predict
what will happen. Those who are making predictions, are doing it on
mere hope and a prayer, even more so than usual. Here is a prediction
that was published Sunday by the Motley Fool "Why today’s the day to
buy into the nickel market" (article).
While the author makes a good case for the long term picture for nickel
in a world we recognize as being 'normal', we do not live in normal
times, and since this was posted, LME cash nickel has fallen almost
$1500/tonne. There is an old investment saying about "trying to catch a
falling knife" that applies to just about all commodities right now. US
Dollar is stronger and remains one of the few safe haven investments,
as gold and silver join the retreat. The oil war going on between
Russia and Saudi Arabia is taking prices to near 22nd century lows, and
this is compounding the worries for commodity traders. All in all,
unless you are a short trader, it's just brutal and depressing out
there. But hump day is in the rear view mirror and we are closer to the
weekend than not.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.59/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper plunges almost 8% on LME, hits limit down in Shanghai as sell off resumes - more
Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired - more
Pet dog with coronavirus dies after returning from quarantine disease-free - more
Animals and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - more
Why Covid-19 is so dangerous for older adults - more
Trump cites 'Chinese virus' in bid to shape narrative - more
Chinese military scientists ordered to win global race to develop coronavirus vaccine - more
As of last evening, the United States ranked 8th in the world in total cases of covid-19, and 6th in fatalities.
Yesterday's market review - Copper slides below $5,000 for
the first time since 2016 - Copper prices crashed below $5,000 a tonne
for the first time in more than three years on Wednesday as growing
expectations of surplus metal were reinforced by large deliveries to
London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses. - more
2 Italian stainless steel plants decide to shut down to prevent
COVID-19 epidemic - According to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in
the world, especially in Italy, there were more and more steel mills in
Italy decided to temporarily shut down their mill to prevent virus
expansion. - more
From using drones to stockpiling cyanide, miners keep digging amid
pandemic - From using drones for field inspections to stockpiling
cyanide, miners are scrambling to maintain output amid the coronavirus
pandemic, a task made trickier in underground mines where social
distancing is nearly impossible. - more
Allegheny Technologies announces cost-cutting moves, offers voluntary
retirement program - Pittsburgh-based specialty metals manufacturer
Allegheny Technologies Inc. announced Tuesday it was realigning its
businesses and offering a voluntary retirement package to salaried
employees aimed at cutting costs and boosting profits. - more
The Unprecedented Disruption of COVID-19: What Distributors Should Do Next - As
we won't see "business as usual" for a while, here are critical steps
distributors need to take now to strengthen their positions for a new
normal. - more
Small Businesses Face Devastation as Damage From Virus Grows - more
The novel coronavirus and the metal fabrication supply chain - more
Will COVID-19's economic impact weaken steel prices? - more
Copper kills coronavirus. Why aren’t our surfaces covered in it? - In
China, it was called “qi,” the symbol for health. In Egypt it was
called “ankh,” the symbol for eternal life. - more(note
- this is one of stainless steel's Achilles Heel's. By its very nature,
the self passivating nature of stainless not only protects the metal,
it also protects whatever lies on the surface from the metal itself.
While the economic blow from this outbreak could prove detrimental to
stainless steel's future in the medical field, this is not new news.)
(from 2015) Human Coronavirus 229E Remains Infectious on Common Touch Surface Materials - more
Minnesota requests elusive U.S. Forest Service study on copper mining
effects - Minnesota regulators have asked the Trump administration to
provide the research from an aborted federal study about the impacts of
copper mining on the Superior National Forest and its Boundary Waters
Canoe Area Wilderness, within 30 days. - more
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $5.34/lb ($11,780/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.08/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Tuesday and started today just under the 231,500 tonne level. From a
famous line in Raiders of the Lost Ark - What shall we talk about? In
the last two days, we have learned a huge chunk of nickel ore shipments
from the Philippines has been halted to an island under quarantine. And
we learned that a major Canadian nickel mine has closed due to concerns
over the virus. Today we experience our third consecutive day of nickel
stockpiles falling, a first for this year. And yet, nickel prices
continue to fall. Concerns for faltering demand are muting any supply
concerns. Not sure technicals mean much at a time like this, but they
are flashing sell, sell, sell. And traders continue to do so. It would
be safe to say that we are now sailing in uncharted waters. In our
state last night, we went to bed with eight confirmed cases, double the
day before, and woke up to thirteen this morning - and the sun isn't
even up yet. And next week, the LME will suspend their ring trading.
Not sure yet, how that will affect our ability to supply LME numbers,
but we will learn together next week. Little more news today than we
have found in days past, so we leave you with another line, this time
from an old TV show - Let's be careful out there.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.63/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper sinks below $5,000 a tonne as virus panic sees metals give up gains - more
How can an asymptomatic person still spread the coronavirus? - more
Dow closes with gain of 1,000 points on news of $1 trillion stimulus package - more
Tuesday's market review - Prospect of excess supply pushes
copper to 40-month lows - Copper prices tumbled to 40-month lows on
Tuesday as slowing demand fed expectations of surpluses and a large
amount of metal was delivered to London Metal Exchange-approved
warehouses. - more
London Metal Exchange plans to suspend ring trading next week - The
London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to suspend open-outcry trading next
week and shift all business to its electronic system for the first time
after Britain imposed severe restrictions on social life to fight
coronavirus. - more
Vale suspends mining at Voisey’s Bay mine - Vale SA is placing its
Voisey’s Bay nickel mine in Labrador on “care and maintenance” for the
next four weeks due to the global COVID-19 virus outbreak. - more
No plans to shutter Vale or Glencore operations in Sudbury due to
COVID-19 - Vale has no plans to curtail or suspend its Greater
Sudbury-area operations due to the coronavirus pandemic. - more
VW to start using high-nickel batteries for electric car - Volkswagen
will raise the amount of nickel used in it electric car battery cells
to 80% in the next year from 65% at present, Frank Blome, head of
battery cells at the carmaker said on Tuesday. - more
Judge backs Minnesota's Twin Metals mine in lease dispute - A federal
judge on Tuesday rejected a challenge by environmental groups against
the proposed Twin Metals copper-nickel mine in northeastern Minnesota,
saying the Interior Department had the authority to reverse itself and
renew the project’s federal mineral rights leases. - more
China steel futures weaken as virus panic escalates - Benchmark steel
futures in China dropped on Tuesday, retreating from a near two-month
high hit in the previous session, as fears worsened over the
coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the world economy. - more
China Macro & Metals: As work slowly resumes, high steel stocks weigh on prices - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $5.41/lb ($11,935/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.03/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Monday and for the first time this year, by over 1500 tonnes. Cancelled
warrants remain in the 27% range and the day saw just under 232,100
tonnes. Volatility and brutality defined the market yesterday, and
while nickel closed below $12,000/tonne for the second time in a week,
the drop was not quite as bad as last Thursday's. After experiencing a
3000 point drop, the Dow is showing very little enthusiasm
this morning, after an after market Presidential news conference
yesterday confirmed a recession was very likely. We are starting to see economic
reports coming out, and probably the most worrying is the Empire State
Manufacturing Survey (posted below). If you haven't already heard, part
of the Presidential Disaster Declaration was the lifting of semi truck
driver hour restrictions. Another reason to stay off the highways and
stay home when ever possible (watch this).
We thought the market might have a positive reaction to the news from
the temporary Phillippines shipment ban due to the Coronavirus
quarantine, but so far, the markets appear to be skeptical. It is
interesting to note, with the Indonesia export ban in place, the
article below claims if this quarantine lasts into next month, China
stockpiles of low grade nickel ore could be depleted. In the mean time,
world markets face the great unknown --- and markets hate the unknown.
Industry news remains hard to find.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.65/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London copper rebounds from 40-month low on demand hopes - more
Coronavirus:
Washington-Beijing war of words continues as Mike Pompeo responds to
Chinese diplomat’s complaint about ‘denigrating’ remarks - more
Impact of COVID-19 virus on worldsteel activities - more
Monday's market review - Copper tumbles to 40-month low on
fears for economy, demand - Copper prices slid on Monday to the lowest
since November 2016 on worries that lockdowns in Europe and the United
States to tackle the coronavirus would further erode metals demand. - more
LME May Have a Paper-Filing Problem If U.K. Goes on Lockdown - Since
Victorian times, London’s traders have used paper documents to track
metal flowing in and out of warehouses, even as the rest of the world
went digital. Now the coronavirus is posing a threat unlike any in
living memory. - more
Philippines to ban entry to Northern Surigao for 2 weeks over COVID-19
- The Philippines will ban vessels from entering Surigao del Norte from
March 18 to the end of the month, growing concerns about nickel ore
supply as the country is the world’s largest exporter of the raw
material for stainless steel and nickel pig iron (NPI) following
Indonesia’s export ban effective from this year. - more(excerpt)
Inventories of nickel ore at Chinese NPI producers are expected to be
depleted if the ban extends into April or spreads to other
regions.
Light at the end of COVID-19 tunnel for metal fabricators - Coronavirus
has torpedoed the global economy (and toilet paper aisles), but a reset
in the fab shop might not be the worst thing - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on March 14, 2020, domestic raw
steel production was 1,878,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 80.5 percent. Production was 1,913,000 net tons in
the week ending March 14, 2019 while the capability utilization then
was 82.2 percent. The current week production represents a 1.8 percent
decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production for the
week ending March 14, 2020 is down 1.3 percent from the previous week
ending March 7, 2020 when production was 1,903,000 net tons and the
rate of capability utilization was 81.6 percent. - more
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $5.78/lb ($12,740/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.38/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Friday and start this week just under the 233,700 tonne level.
Cancelled warrants started falling last week as well, slipping from
38+% on Wednesday to near 31% on Thursday, and below that level today.
Just about the time inventory started shipping again, future orders
have started falling. Markets around the world suffered a touch of
silly season on Friday, all bouncing at an unreasonable level. Today,
reality appears to be setting back in and world markets, for the most
part, are down as well. Nickel which was up $.40/lb this time on
Friday, is down nearly as sharply this morning. The Federal Reserve
issued an emergency news
release on Sunday which included "In light of these developments, the
Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate
to 0 to 1/4 percent." (here)
We say 'emergency' because the Fed is not known for working on Sunday's
and their feeling the need to do this on a Sunday, has sent a chill
thru world markets. Bad news is bad news, and the Fed apparently felt
that releasing the info on a weekend would give traders time to digest
the news before the bell. The Federal government continues to throw
money at the problem, but unlike the financial crisis, which was a
problem based on money, the coronavirus continues to spread. Rich and
poor alike are feeling the effects. Everyday this pandemic continues,
economies around the world are getting hit, and with medical analysts
forecasting the end is months away, future volatility in world markets
is a safe bet. While social distancing is the word of the day, anxiety
is the ever present emotion. Everybody is feeling it, whether they care
to admit it or not. It's Monday and the beginning of a new week. Lot of
nervous customers out there - have you called them out of the blue and
asked them how they are doing - really doing? No sales, no pitching the
business. Just a call to check on them. We all claim we have the best
customer service. Service goes way beyond getting them their order on
time. Social distancing may have put a cog in the wheel for outside
sales calls, but it sure hasn't broke the phones yet. Have a great
week!
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.68/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper falls after surprise Fed rate cut, dire China data - more
Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus more than we realized - more
Coronavirus can remain in air for 3 hours, live on plastic for days, new study says - more (quote - The research found it could stay on stainless steel and plastic for anywhere between two and three days.)
The Covid-19 puzzles that scientists are still trying to answer - more
Friday's market review - Prices strengthen on hopes of
U.S. stimulus package - Industrial metals rose on Friday, boosted
by expectations of a stimulus package from the United States to protect
the world’s largest economy from the impact of the coronavirus and as
China announced further economic measures. - more
Cleveland-Cliffs Completes AK Acquisition - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has
completed the acquisition of AK Steel, integrating the country’s
largest producer of iron ore pellets with a domestic steelmaker. - more
Philippines to dethrone Indonesia as largest global nickel ore producer
- Global nickel production will drop significantly over 2020 as major
producer Indonesia’s nickel ore export ban comes into effect, Fitch
analysts assert in a recent report. - more
St Louis Fed Reports
Producer Price Index by Commodity for Metals and Metal Products: Steel Wire, Stainless Steel - more
Producer Price Index by Commodity for Metals and Metal Products: Steel Pipe and Tube, Stainless Steel - more
Producer Price Index by Commodity for Metals and Metal Products: Stainless and Other Alloy Steel Scrap - more
Producer Price Index by Industry: Iron, Steel Pipe and Tube from Purchased Steel: Pipe and Tube, Stainless - more
Producer Price Index by Industry: Steel Wire Drawing: Stainless Steel Wire - more
Producer Price Index by Industry: Material Recyclers: Stainless and Alloy Steel Scrap - more
Coronavirus not yet impacting US steel production: mills - US
steelmakers have not yet seen an impact on production from the global
coronavirus outbreak, but are closely monitoring the situation, several
domestic steelmakers told S&P Global Platts approaching the end of
the week. - more
Nickel closed Thursday's trading
session at $5.37/lb ($11,830/tonne). Indicators at 7:00 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.41/lb
higher, Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses rose
slightly on Thursday and started today just under the 234,400 tonne
level. Shanghai Futures Exchange reports their nickel inventories fell
1,656 tonnes this week, to end the week at 31,617 tonnes. After the
rush for the back door yesterday, markets are rebounding today. There
is no real news to account for the change in mood, and that may be just
what the market needed. Yesterday, especially if you are a sports buff,
was about as dismal as it could be. Last Friday, Dow futures were lower
and we felt that was because traders didn't want to be caught unaware
over the weekend. This Friday, the news seems to be about as dismal as
it could be, so traders might be wondering if it can get that much
worse, If can, of course, and science says it will get much worse
before it gets better. But the markets over reaction yesterday is
seeing a rebound today. How long it will last is anyone's guess, but as
ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters yesterday "The only
thing we know for sure is the risk is too the downside". Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau has entered voluntary quarantine after his wife
tested positive. It's been a rough week, with workers worrying about
their futures, while watching their retirement funds decline. While we
spent January and February warning what was coming, we feel it only
fair now that it is here, to remind our readers that things will get
brighter. They always do. So if you are under 60 and otherwise healthy,
your chances of suffering anything beyond a bad flu is very low. But
please play it smart. The rest of us that are over 60, or have a pre
existing medical condition, really can't afford to pick up any bugs you
might be carrying around, this virus included, so please play it safe.
Stay away from sick people, and keep your hands clean, and we all
should be just fine. While this event will momentarily pull us apart
(social distancing is the word of the moment), our eventual success
will draw us together. Dark days ahead .... but no matter how thick the
clouds overhead, or how long they sit over our heads, the sun is always
up there, just waiting for the opportune moment to peak thru. It's the
weekend, and after this week, a much needed break. Have a safe, and
relaxing weekend and if the pressure of this all starts building
internally, try jogging. It's an exercise that is not only a healthy
exercise, it will kick your butt and help you relax when you are done
and showered.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.68/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London zinc rises on hopes for U.S. stimulus, but set for 4th weekly fall - more
Thursday's market review - Copper drops to more than
3-year low as coronavirus fears grip markets - Copper fell to its
lowest in over three years on Thursday after the United States imposed
curbs on travel from Europe due to the coronavirus and gave little
detail on other plans to cushion its economy from the pandemic. - more
China's Foshan stainless steel operating rate recovers to 90% -
According to understanding, the operation of China's Foshan stainless
steel trader and downstream factories increased obviously compared to
last week. - more
LME eyes switching to electronic trade in face of coronavirus - The
London Metal Exchange's open-outcry Ring will remain open for business
in the face of the continued coronavirus spread, however if needed will
be switched to electronic price discovery, a spokesperson told S&P
Global Platts Thursday. - more
Case of COVID-19 linked to PDAC - A
positive case of COVID-19 that has been confirmed in Sudbury, Ontario,
Canada has also been linked to the PDAC convention and trade show that
took place in Toronto earlier this month. - more
Nickel closed Wednesday's trading
session at $5.63/lb ($12,420/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.17/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell on
Wednesday and started today just under the 234,400 tonne level. Markets
are in free falls this morning and there is little doubt what triggered
today's sell off. President Trump made, what he apparently hoped to be,
a reassuring speech from the White House, on the day coronavirus was
officially declared a pandemic. It had quite the opposite effect on the
world, who typically look to the US as a leader, instead saw the world
blamed for the US' sudden health problems. The commodities board
yesterday, at this time, was what we have called a a trading winner.
Only cocoa, coffee, cotton and corn were trading higher, with copper
and cattle joining the rest of the downward movement. Right now, only
orange juice and rice are trading higher on the commodities board. Even
safe haven gold and silver are getting beat up this morning. Nickel is
in real danger of closing below the $12,000/tonne level. Chicago's
Mercantile Exchange is the first trading floor in the US to shut down
because of the virus, effective close of business Friday. It is growing
harder and harder to find related news as business', for a better word,
entrench. It is disconcerting when a single infection can shut down a
business' operation, and respected health officials say that up to 45%
of active employees could get sick before this is over. Not only does
that make it hard to plan for the future, it also makes it hard to find
the positive side of the coin. But its there, that positive side, it
always is, and this will eventually be behind us.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.72/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper hits over 3-year low as growth fears deepen after U.S. travel curbs - more
Wednesday's market review - Lead, copper slide as stimulus
fails to calm virus fears - Lead prices slumped to the lowest since
June 2016 and copper also eased on Wednesday as central bank stimulus
failed to offset worries that the coronavirus outbreak will keep
threatening metals demand. - more
Sherritt exits Ambatovy nickel joint venture - Sherritt International
Inc. is to exit the Ambatovy joint venture in Madagascar, but its
decision will not affect nickel or cobalt production at the mine. - more
Finnish initiative to solve critical metals scarcity - Chemical giant
BASF, energy supplier Fortum and mining group Nornickel plan to
establish a battery recycling network to serve the electric vehicle
market. - more
CME to halt Chicago trading floor after Fri session to tackle
coronavirus - CME, the world's largest futures exchange, is to halt
trading at its Chicago hub at the close of play Friday as a
precautionary measure in the face of coronavirus and its continued
global spread. - more
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $5.75/lb ($12,680/tonne). Indicators at 6:10 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.04/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses gained
slightly on Tuesday and started the day just under the 235,700 tonne
level. Nickel is having a hard time finding its footing this morning
and at the moment, is still falling. It's so called recovery yesterday
amounted to $30/tonne, but in fairness, it did not see the free fall on
Monday that equity stocks did. For the most part, while volatile during
the day, its daily closing for the month have been in a near $300/tonne
range. Industry news still centers around the coronavirus outbreak,
which the WHO keeps threatening to call a pandemic, but has yet to take
the final step. For that ever shrinking crowd who are trying to
minimize the outbreak to just another flu, we suggest you look to
Italy. This country is risking economic ruin to stifle the deadly
outbreak there. Residents for the entire country are under quarantine,
which got even tighter today. The US is reporting over 1000 cases now,
as testing expands. And it is now official. The World Health
Organization has recommended the practice of shaking hands end until
the current threat is over.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.73/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper rises on stimulus hopes; global virus spread caps gains - more
Tuesday's market review - Copper bounces on plans for
Chinese, global stimulus - Copper prices rebounded on Tuesday from
multi-year lows in the previous session as coronavirus cases dropped in
China and nations around the world geared up to pump stimulus into
their economies. - more
Stainless steel price may increase due to COVID-19 impact in Indonesia
& Philippines - According to the market news, the market was
currently worried whether the Philippines and Indonesia, both were the
main suppliers of nickel-iron in the world, kept suffering by the
COVID-19 currently, which might further influence the production of
nickel-iron. - more
JPMorgan Reaped $100 Million as China Squeezed Niche Nickel Market -
JPMorgan Chase & Co. made about $100 million trading nickel last
year, according to people familiar with the situation, as it benefited
from a price spike on the back of a Chinese-led supply squeeze. - more
Govt To Dish Out Chrome Mining Claims To War Vets - Former fighters of
Zimbabwe’s war of liberation are set to be allocated 20% of chrome
mining claims in the country as government moves to appease the
restless ex-combatants. - more
January Steel Shipments up 5.6 Percent from January 2019 - The American
Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that for the month of
January 2020, U.S. steel mills shipped 8,535,755 net tons, a 6.4
percent increase from the 8,021,250 net tons shipped in the previous
month, December 2019, and a 5.6 percent increase from the 8,079,757 net
tons shipped in January 2019. - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $5.74/lb ($12,650/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.13/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell for
a second consecutive day on Monday and started today just under the
234,500 tonne level. What a difference a day makes. Yesterday, at this
time, the commodity board was a solid sea of red, except safe haven
gold and silver. Today, it is the total opposite, and like last week,
we are seeing the roller coaster effect setting in. Yesterday the fear
factor sunk world markets like a rock. Today, we are getting the
bounce, and while the news really didn't change, the fear factor
subsided. Some market analysts are crediting news with the White House
considering a payroll tax cut as potentially boosting the market, but
we feel the fear in the economy has to do with the potential number of
people 'not' working and thus not spending, so not real sure how a
payroll tax cut will help. Yesterday's drop in oil prices appears to
have been pushed along with a report from the International Energy
Agency changing their forecast for 2020 from an increase in demand of
825,000 barrels a day to a decline in demand of 90,000 barrels a day.
That type of forecast would unnerve anyone, and if it is
affecting the 'life blood' of the world's economy to that extent, other
sectors are sure to experience similar drops in demand. Everyone is
aware of how the travel industry is getting hit particularly hard, but
the pain is spreading quietly to other industries. The good news is
China is now reporting less than 50 new cases a day, and that number is
falling daily. SLN is advising it has reopened its Thio site which had
been shut down due to a strike. Otherwise, little industry news.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.72/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper rises from multi-year lows on signs of improving China demand - more
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and
stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds - more
Coronavirus sufferers symptom-free for five days on average – study - more
Coronavirus: all of Italy on lockdown as country faces ‘darkest hour’ - more
Monday's market review - Copper slides to three-year low
on oil price crash, virus fears - Copper prices tumbled to their lowest
level in more than three years on Monday following a plunge in oil
prices, but they came off their lows as investors counted on major
stimulus from China. - more
Coronavirus likely to cause drastic price falls – Menar - The reduction
in the consumption of mined products that the coronavirus was causing
would likely result in a drastic fall in prices, Menar MD Vuslat
Bayoğlu said on Monday. - more
SLN reopens New Caledonia's Thio site - New Caledonia's biggest private
sector employer, the SLN nickel company, has resumed operations at its
mining site in Thio after shutting down operations last week. - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on March 7, 2020, domestic raw steel
production was 1,903,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate
was 81.6 percent. Production was 1,913,000 net tons in the week ending
March 7, 2019 while the capability utilization then was 82.2 percent.
The current week production represents a 0.5 percent decrease from the
same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending March
7, 2020 is down 1.0 percent from the previous week ending February 29,
2020 when production was 1,923,000 net tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 82.5 percent. - more
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $5.82/lb ($12,840/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.20/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses saw their
biggest one day drop since late January on Friday. Dropping a little
over 1000 tonnes, they started this week just under the 235,100 tonne
level. As you have probably heard already, markets around the world are
crashing due to an oil price war, with the threat of a global pandemic
taking second place. We don't claim to understand why lower oil prices
is bad for the global economy, but apparently Russia did not agree to a
production cut last week to support prices, and OPEC has gone to war
with them by cutting prices even further. Obviously this all makes
sense to someone, but in the mean time, commodities (except for gold
and silver) are trading much lower this morning, and at the moment, US
Dow futures are down nearly 5%. The count in the US has climbed to just
shy of 500 confirmed coronavirus cases and 22 deaths. Italy, which
leads the world in new cases on a daily basis, has quarantined nearly
16 million people in an effort to stop the spread. A necessary move,
but still a very brave one for a democratic republic, already suffering
a weakened economy. Looks like another challenging week. We hope its a
healthy and beneficial week for you.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.73/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London copper near 3-year low on virus fears, oil plunge - more
It’s like being in a science fiction film – my daily life in a locked-down Chinese city - Mark Bishop - more
'More scary than coronavirus': South Korea's health alerts expose private lives - more
Coronavirus: New Zealand's fourth Covid-19 case attended Tool concert - more
People at Higher Risk for COVID-19 Complications - more United States Coronavirus Tracker - more
Friday's market review - Copper, aluminium slump as virus
spreads, threatens demand - Prices of copper, aluminium and other
industrial metals slumped on Friday as the coronavirus outbreak
extended outside China, threatening to crimp economic growth and metals
consumption. - more
Stainless steel price close to cost, hard to decline anymore -
According to the market news, the current working stainless steel mills
were counted as 67%, which caused the recent production of stainless
steel in China only got 1.75 million tons, and it would be the lowest
number since 2018. - more
Feature: Credit crunch puts China's steel mills, traders under intense
pressure to cut output, prices - China's steel mills and traders
are grappling with increasingly tight cash flows due to soaring
finished steel inventories and slow sales, which are likely to result
in production cuts and lower pricing, market sources said Monday. - more
Merafe Resources cuts dividend, warns of pressures as works through
Rustenburg restructure - Ferrochrome producer, Merafe Resources,
reduced the total dividend following a full-year loss for its 2019
financial year – results it acknowledged were “underwhelming”, and that
were precipitated by a decline in pricing for the steel-making mineral.
- more
More women working in mining in Colombia – report - A report by the
Colombian Mining Association states that the number of women working in
the industry is growing. - more
China’s Exports Slump as Coronavirus Forces Shutdowns - China’s exports
fell more than expected in the first two months of this year as the
coronavirus outbreak led to extended holidays, depressed factory
output, and blocked transport and movement across the country. - more
Nickel closed Thursday's trading
session at $5.85/lb ($12,890/tonne). Indicators at 7:10 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.05/lb
lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouse rose
slightly and started the day just over the 236,100 tonne level. The
Shanghai Futures Exchange reports its stockpiles of nickel fell by
1,627 tonnes to total 33,237 tonnes this week. Markets are in a foul
mood to end the week, with the base metal board a solid sea of red, and
precious metals all in the green. US equity markets have been dizzying
this week, starting in a recovery jump, a plummet, a bigger jump,
followed by another plummet yesterday. One would think today would be
the upside of the roller coaster ride, but futures show the market may
open much lower for a second consecutive day. It's Friday and
apparently traders of stock and/or commodities do not want to be caught
defenseless over a weekend sure to supply more bad coronavirus news.
Last weekend, we ended the week with the news it had hit our shores
beyond the quarantined Americans we had brought in. Today, we end the
week with around 200 cases and nearly a dozen deaths in the US, and
around 100,000 cases worldwide. We are hearing estimates of between 1
and 3.4% fatality rates, which mean with if we had only had 10 deaths
in the US last week, there is a probability that there are between
10,000 to 34,000 Americans walking around out there, who may not be
aware they have the virus. We are sure the actual number is much lower,
but it does offer an idea of what the next weeks may bring. In the mean
time, it's the weekend. Enjoy your weekend, and stay safe - you are
statistically still more likely to be hurt in a traffic crash than get
sick from the coronavirus any given weekend, so buckle up so we can see
you next week.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.73/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper, aluminium slump as virus spreads, threatens demand - more
Scotiabank Coronavirus and its impact on metals - pdf here
Virus News and Numbers
Coronavirus - By The Numbers - here Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2 - pdf here
Beijing
has announced any visitor from Italy, Iran, Japan or South
Korea will be required to enter quarantine for 14 days before entering
the city. In other words .... stay home. Bethlehem is now closed to
visitors. Holy pilgrimages from multiple faiths are now on hold due to
closures.
Note the "Epidemic curve of confirmed COVID-19 cases" chart mid way down this World Health organization daily report - more
Latest CDC press releases - more
Daily Briefing from China - more
Thursday's market review - Stimulus expectations
strengthen most industrial metals - Prices of most industrial metals
climbed on Thursday, supported by expectations of further measures from
central banks and governments to shore up economic growth and demand
weakened by the spread of the coronavirus. - more
Global nickel production to decline significantly in 2020 – Fitch
Solutions - Research agency Fitch Solutions expects global nickel
production to decrease significantly over the course of this year, as
major producer Indonesia’s nickel ore export ban comes into effect. - more
New Caledonia's SLN suspends operations in Thio following strikes - New
Caledonia's biggest private sector employer, SLN nickel, has suspended
its operations in Thio following weeks of industrial action. - more
Commodity economies face their own reckoning due to covid-19 - The
reward for providing the world economy with the raw materials it needs
to grow is perpetual vulnerability. - more
China Baowu's crude steel output world's largest in 2019 - Steel giant
China Baowu Steel Group announced Wednesday that it surpassed the
Luxembourg-headquartered ArcelorMittal to become the world's largest
producer of crude steel in 2019. - more
AISI Releases February SIMA Imports Data - Based on the Commerce
Department’s most recent Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA)
data, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that
steel import permit applications for the month of February totaled
1,823,000 net tons (NT). - more
Ely adopts pro-copper mining resolution, shunts Bois Forte Band boycott discussion - City
Council will consider later this month a competing resolution saying
Ely does not support a boycott of the Bois Forte Band's Fortune Bay
Casino or any other business. - more
Nickel closed Wednesday's trading
session at $5.75/lb ($12,680/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.06/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses rose on
Wednesday and started today just over the 235,900 tonne level. We are
seeing a report in British media that there is a plan in place for the
London Metal Exchange to close temporarily, if necessary, to help stop
the spread of the coronavirus. We are finding no verification, nor
details, and it makes complete sense. We might add that the British
government seems to be confronting this whole coronavirus issue on a
level we have yet to accomplish here in the States. We would call it
fear mongering on this side of the pond, we suspect they call it
preparing the public for potential disruptions. Nickel recovered some
yesterday, and is trading at a bi-weekly high this morning. The Euro
continues to trade higher against the US Dollar, which could be the
push the bulls needed. Momentum appears to be shaky.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.70/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Expectations of more stimulus strengthen industrial metals - more
Scotiabank Metals Update: What does the Fed know...(that we don't)? - pdf here
Virus News and Numbers
Coronavirus - By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus: pet dog belonging to Covid-19 patient infected, Hong Kong health authorities confirm - more
Coronavirus more deadly than seasonal flu, US health officials say - more
Wednesday's market review - Copper gains as Fed's rate cut
gets positive response - Copper prices climbed on Wednesday as traders
interpreted the U.S. central bank's rate cut as a positive move that
will ease liquidity, but worries about demand in top consumer China
dominated. - more
Stainless steel growth unlikely in 2020 - The level of activity in the
local stainless steel sector’s value chain has dwindled in the past
decade, mainly owing to international competition, low steel prices and
the slow growth of the local economy. - more
Analysis: Europe steel-to-raw materials spreads recover on steel rise,
iron ore, scrap declines - European HRC steel price spreads to major
raw materials costs rose in February, on stronger HRC steel prices and
lower iron ore and scrap prices, according to S&P Global Platts'
estimates Wednesday. - more
Nickel closed Tuesday's trading
session at $5.70/lb ($12,560/tonne). Indicators
at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.10/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses rose
slightly on Tuesday and started today just over the 235,400 tonne
level. We said yesterday that we felt the market
was betting the Fed would cut interest rates, and that we felt it was a
'fairly safe bet'. The problem comes when no one was really expecting
it to happen so quickly, or too the degree it was cut. An emergency cut
was announced and equity markets tanked; traders wondering why the Fed
was
suddenly 'so worried'. It happened mostly too late to affect nickel
trading yesterday, but it appears the move spooked US Dollar traders as
well, and with the Euro now trading higher, base metals typically
follow. Market news continues to be light, as manufacturers,
distributors, and end users appear to be entrenching in anticipation of
potential coronavirus outbreaks. For those who are growth oriented,
this situation offers an excellent opportunity to market ones self as a
reliable 'second source' for customers with a loyalty to their current
supplier. While there has been a big push on the part of many
manufacturers to limit the number of sources used, this is one of those
world events that doesn't care about that business model theory and
uses it to disrupt fluidity. The distributors with a track record of
success are already looking at the coronavirus as an opportunity in
disguise.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.67/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - London copper climbs as dollar weakens after Fed rate cut - more
Coronavirus - By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus outbreak fans the flames of US-China decoupling debate in Washington - more
World Health Organization announces fatality rate adjusted to 3.4%. The fatality rate for the common flu is around .001%. - source
How to prepare and take action for COVID-19 - more
Unite, the largest trade union in Britain and Ireland, is warning that
factories there may start shutting down or going to reduced hours due
to a shortage of parts. Car plants are especially vulnerable.
Anthony Fauci might be the one person everyone in
Washington trusts right now. .... “It's really, really tough because
you have to be honest with the American public and you don't want to
scare the hell out of them,” Fauci said. “And then other times, in
attempts to calm people down, [leaders] have had people be complacent
about it. This is particularly problematic in a ‘gotcha” town like
Washington.” - source article
Surgeon General - "Seriously
people. Stop Buying Masks! They are NOT effective in preventing general
public from catching Coronavirus ..... " Sanosil - Surgical masks do NOT protect against pathogenic
aerosols, as they do not seal tightly. However, they are not completely
useless: many infections with viruses (flu and corona viruses) occur by
touching contaminated surfaces such as handles, lift buttons, ATM
keyboards, etc. and then reaching into the mouth, nose or eyes. –
According to studies, this happens up to 26 times per hour. A mask
forms a physical barrier and can thus prevent this path of infection.
In addition, a surgical mask protects the surrounding area if a patient
wears one, as the aerosols are severely restricted when sneezing and
coughing. However, almost the same
protection as a surgical mask is offered by any scarf or neckerchief
that is tied in front of the mouth and nose – a barrier is also placed
between the hands and mucous membranes. - source (guess this explains why they keep telling us to wash our hands constantly)
Tuesday's market review - Copper pulls back from one-week
high despite U.S. rate cut - Copper tripped into the red on Tuesday,
retreating from its highest level in more than a week, despite news of
an emergency cut in U.S. interest rates and hopes about more stimulus
spending. - more
Global molybdenum production rises while use falls in Q3 - Figures
released today by the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) show
that global production of molybdenum rose while usage fell in the third
quarter of 2019 when compared to the second quarter of the same year. -
more
Cuba's nickel with certified quality - The 'Comandante Ernesto Che
Guevara' cobalt and nickel production factory in Moa metallurgical
mining municipality of this eastern Cuban province, is preparing to
certify its fifth exportable item, according to reports. - more(Since
1996, under the Helms-Burton Act, it is illegal to import nickel from
Cuba, and it is illegal to import any item, from any country, that
contains nickel from Cuba. Can you prove that stainless steel you stock
has absolutely no nickel from Cuba in it?)
Ely voters remain divided on future of copper-nickel mining - A short
drive up Highway 169 North out of Virginia brings you to the Iron Range
city of Ely. - more
Allseas plans deep sea metal mining future with converted drill ship -
Swiss headquartered Allseas has acquired the former ultra-deepwater
drill ship Vitoria 10000 for conversion to a polymetallic nodule
collection vessel. - more
Nickel closed Monday's trading
session at $5.76/lb ($12,700/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.03/lb lower. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME
licensed warehouses fell slightly on Monday and started today's trading
session just under the 235,300 tonne level. Nickel jumped yesterday,
along with nearly everything else that is traded, but is slightly lower
this morning. We saw one news outlet report an analyst credited the
announcement that Indonesia had reported its first case of the
coronavirus for yesterday's rise in price. We find that an incredible
stretch, with all of the other supply and demand arena's being affected
worldwide by the same virus outbreak. But some analysts feel a need to
explain everything, so we just roll our eyes and move on. The
coronavirus, no matter how much we would like to, continues to be
impossible to ignore. The British government this morning, warned that
at its peak, it is possible that 20% of all British employees could be
absent from work with the virus. This country has 40 cases. The U.S,
on the other hand, would call this type of information 'political fear
mongering', even though it has over 100 cases now. By their scenario,
it doesn't mean 1 in 5 of a company's employees are out sick. It means
they are planning for the possibility of area wide quarantine's, much
like China and Italy, that could affect up to 20% of their work force.
That is a staggering figure and honestly, we hope it 'is' fear
mongering. Markets are starting to bet on some stimulus money being
pumped into the economies, whether it be by cash infusions or a cut in
interest rates. At this point, we suspect that is a fairly safe bet,
although what effect it will have, remains to be seen.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.64/lb
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper pushes to one-week high on bets for strong stimulus - more
Sucden Financial Quarterly Metals Report - pdf here
Manufacturing Engineering: March 2020 - online here
Virus News and Numbers We've discontinued posting
daily W.H.O. numbers as they are posted at 10 am CET, which is very
early in the morning US time and are thus, seriously outdated for
American readers. The "By The Numbers" link appears to be updated more
often.
Coronavirus - By The Numbers - here
Coronavirus escalation could cut global economic growth in half – OECD - more
The US' first coronavirus fatality was reported on Saturday. By Monday evening, the number had climbed to six.
Monday's market review - Copper rebounds on stimulus hopes
after dire Chinese data - Copper and other industrial metals prices
bounced back on Monday on hopes that global central banks will inject
stimulus into sagging economies shaken by the coronavirus outbreak. - more
Steel stockpiles in China a worrying signal - Iron ore miner Fortescue
Metals has provided some comfort that the large build-up of steel
inventories in China over the past few weeks could be quickly soaked up
by stimulus packages and the resumption of the construction industry in
coming months. - more
Steel-Making Materials, Iron Ore And Coal, Could Be Virus Winners -
Picking commodity winners at this stage of what could become a global
economic slowdown courtesy of the China coronavirus is risky business
but two steel-making minerals are starting to attract support; iron ore
and coking coal. - more
Import of stainless steel from Indonesia grows nearly nine times -
ISSDA has requested the government to impose an ADD/CVD on imports of
stainless-steel flat products from Indonesia, to counter Chinese
imports, which are now being routed through ASEAN FTA route. - more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending on February 29, 2020, domestic raw
steel production was 1,923,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 82.5 percent. Production was 1,917,000 net tons in
the week ending February 29, 2019 while the capability utilization then
was 82.4 percent. The current week production represents a 0.3 percent
increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the
week ending February 29, 2020 is up 1.2 percent from the previous week
ending February 22, 2020 when production was 1,901,000 net tons and the
rate of capability utilization was 81.5 percent. - more
Nickel closed Friday's trading
session at $5.56/lb ($12,250/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading around $.12/lb
higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell
ever so slightly on Friday and started the month of March just under
the 235,400 tonne level. That is a 38,514 tonne gain over the month of
February, which works out to an average gain of 1,925.7 tonnes per day.
Cash nickel averaged $5.78/lb in February, down from an average of
$6.15/lb in January. The new week and month are starting out with
investors in a buying mood. You have to look hard to find something
trading lower this morning. Nickel bounced hard earlier this morning,
and have been slowly losing momentum since. As news starts to trickle
in today, we could see some of this early enthusiasm wain. Then again,
with the US now feeling the effects of the coronavirus, with dozens of
cases popping up over the weekend, from Florida to Rhode Island, to
Illinois, to all of the west coast states, there may be some relief
that we don't see zombies walking in the streets, so the inevitable has
happened and it is no longer necessary to fret over the whole situation. We
are, of course, down playing the real threat, and trying to understand what
traders are thinking some days, is like solving a puzzle with half the
pieces missing. We expect the month to be another month of volatility
for traders, with headlines guiding the fear level, which will guide
risk management. For the month of March, we welcome Texas Pipe
& Supply and their family of companies, as your news page sponsor.
We invite you to visit their site and see for yourself, the services
and product lines they offer. And we thank them for sponsoring March.
It's a new month, and time for new goals. Congratulations to those who
met their February goals, and to those who fell short, March offers you
a month of redemption. Best of luck to all of our readers - may it
bring you all success, but a healthy month, above all.
Average price of LME traded cash nickel
so far this month
- $5.78/lb (average for February)
LME nickel chart - here / Euro/US Dollar chart - here
Reports
Reuters metals morning - Copper rebounds on hope for stimulus after dire factory data - more
Distributor's Link (for Fastener Distributors) - online here
Total
Deaths as of Yesterday
Total
Infections as of Yesterday
2,977 (rose over 3000 early last evening)
87,137 (rose over 88,000 early last evening)
Virus News
Coronavirus - By The Numbers - here
Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths - more(quote - "... this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1%
fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times
more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between
290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.")
Chinese manufacturing hits record low amid coronavirus outbreak - more
Last weekend saw the beginning of outbreaks in the Middle East and
Europe. This weekend it appears the virus has been traveling "under the
radar" in the US and has suddenly made its presence known on both sides of the country. While this
week starts with more questions than answers again, it is the level of
fear that will guide markets. The VIX, the so called fear index, is at
readings last seen during the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis, and
2008 recession.
Lets
look at what has happened over the past six Sunday's. We can only go
back 6 because we are using World Health Organization numbers and they
didn't start issuing coronavirus daily reports until just days before
our first Sunday, January 26. Our six Sunday's are Jan 26th, Feb 2nd,
9th, 16th, 23rd and yesterday, March 1st. The Chinese death toll has
risen from 56 to 305 to 812 to 1666 to 2445 to 2873. The rest of the
world death toll, less China, has risen from 0 to 1 to 1 a second
Sunday to 3 to 17 to 104 yesterday. On Jan 26th there were 10 countries
reporting confirmed cases. This rose to 23 to 24 to 25 to 28 to 58
yesterday. Globally, the number of confirmed cases had gone from 2014
to 14557 to 37558 to 51857 to 78811 to 87137. From the numbers we can
see that while China is showing signs of getting their outbreak under
control, the rest of the world is just starting to feel the effects of
the virus on the loose. The one negative we found in Chinese numbers is
new infections bottomed out at 331 on Friday, but rose to 435 on
Saturday and 579 yesterday. Nickel turned southward on Feb 13th, US
equity markets a week later.
Friday's market review - Aluminium, zinc bounce after
hitting multi-year lows on virus - Industrial metals prices carved out
new lows on Friday as the coronavirus outbreak worsened, but most
rebounded as traders cashed in profits and squared positions ahead of
the weekend. - more
Stainless Steel Markets Wane Following January Restocking - Global
stainless steel purchasing activity is steady, at a level, generally, a
little below that of one year ago. - more
Indonesia to issue rules on nickel ore price around late March -
Indonesia aims to issue around late next month a regulation governing
selling prices of nickel ore, a Ministry of Energy and Mineral
Resources official said on Friday, following complaints by miners. - more
You must have heard of stainless steel pipe supplier said he can
provide 12% nickel contained stainless steel pipe. - Stainless steel
pipes with 12% nickel content are only found in the GB / T14976-2002
standard. The scientific name is 00Cr17Ni14Mo2, AKA 316L stainless
steel pipe. - more
Amy Klobuchar Has Been Weirdly Quiet About A Large Mining Controversy
In Her Residence State - On a snowy afternoon final February, Sen. Amy
Klobuchar introduced her bid for president of the US whereas standing
on the financial institution of the Mississippi River in Minneapolis. -
more
(all
ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated Monday thru
Thursday before 7 am CST, Friday version before 8 am CST - DisclaimerOriginal content and opinions copyright
www.estainlesssteel.com. All prices shown on
this page are indications only. Please note - for real time and
official LME
prices, LME requires a user subscribe to an authorized LME vendor.
Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing 
($11,315/tonne). Indicators at 6:20 am CST today show
nickel trading around 
unchanged. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses fell
on Monday and started the last day of March just over the 229,800 tonne
level. Compared to the last working day of February, LME inventories
fell almost 6000 tonnes, after gaining approximately 40,000 tonnes the
prior month. Equity markets are mostly trading higher after
surprisingly strong PMI numbers from China were released. Base metals
traders remain skeptical, as do we. Purchasing managers PMI are
supposed to track business experiencing expansion in business compared
to contraction. Considering China was closed for business in February,
it makes sense that most are seeing a rebound in business, albeit
paltry in many cases. So the numbers, in our opinion, are sending a
false positive and do not reflect the overall health of manufacturing
in China. But good news is hard to find these days, so we will take
what we can get. The Phillippines shut down another island, this one a
big one for the nickel industry. When this port officially closes for
covid-19 containment, the country will have shut down about 2/3 of it's
nickel ore shipments. With Indonesia halting low content ore on January
1st, this could support pricing down the road as Chinese stockpiles
start to dwindle. China has a molybdenum mine leaking from a tailings
dam, reminding us all of the deadly collapsed we witnessed in Brazil a
few years ago. And Bank of America has updated its nickel forecast for
2020 below. We tried to publish at least one update without mentioning
the elephant in the room, but the Philippines made that impossible.
Stay safe and have a great day! 
Reports
Why Stainless Steel 
Monday's market review - Aluminium hits four-year lows,
fears of deep recession reinforced - Aluminum prices hit four-year lows
on Monday as worries about prolonged shutdowns around the world due to
the coronavirus reinforced fears of a deep recession and tumbling
demand for industrial metals. - 
Tailings dam spill at Chinese molybdenum miner threatens local water
supply - China’s northeastern province of Heilongjiang said a tailings
dam leak at a molybdenum mine over the weekend threatened to
contaminate the local water supply and that it had launched an
emergency response. - 
Indonesian anti-graft enforcers set their sights on a new target:
corporations - For years, this eastern Indonesian village of fishermen
and seaweed farmers simmered with anger over the pollution of its
coastline by a nickel mining company. - 
Eramet: Fully committed to face the Covid-19 health situation - In
the current context of the
Coronavirus pandemic marked by the uncertainty
in the global economy, Eramet is fully committed to tackling
developments in the situation. - 
($11,370/tonne). Indicators at 6:15 am CST today show
nickel trading unchanged 
Factbox: Coronavirus hits steel, metals and mining with diverse price
impacts - All steel and metals commodities have been impacted by the
escalating coronavirus crisis, although their price behavior has varied
as both demand and supply scenarios change. - 
EU's AD duties may be positive for Taiwanese stainless steel plants -
Last week the European Union (EU) announced that from the next April
12th of 2020, it would apply anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese,
Indonesian and Taiwanese hot-rolled stainless steel products. - 
Glencore closes some operations in four countries over coronavirus
curbs - Glencore PLC on Thursday halted a number of smaller mines due
to government restrictions to curb the spread of the coronavirus but
added its larger operations were not materially impacted. - 
Two senior managers at Russia's Nornickel leave - Russian nickel and
palladium producer Norilsk Nickel GMKN.MM said on Friday two senior
vice presidents, including Sergey Batekhin, who was in charge of sales,
had left the company. - 
Zimbabwe cuts rates, miners send coronavirus distress signals -
Zimbabwe’s central bank cut its main lending rate to 25% on Thursday
and set a fixed exchange rate as part of measures to support the
economy against the coronavirus pandemic. -
Stainless steel melt shop production reaches 52.2 million metric tons
in 2019 - The International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF) has
released figures for the full year 2019 showing that stainless steel
melt shop production increased by 2.9% year–on–year to 52.2 million
metric tons. - 
Sumitomo to halt operations at mines in Bolivia, Madagascar to prevent
coronavirus spread - Sumitomo Corp will temporarily suspend operation
at its San Cristobal silver-zinc-lead mine in Bolivia and its Ambatovy
nickel mine in Madagascar to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, it
said on Thursday. - 
Nunavik’s Raglan mine put into care and maintenance due to COVID-19 -
The Raglan mine in Nunavik has announced that it will mothball its
operations and send nearly all its workers home, as it goes into care
and maintenance due to COVID-19 concerns. - 
Metal Prices Boosted By A South African Move To Close Its Mines - A
major “outage” event, the closure of South Africa’s big mining industry
for 21 days as a precautionary measure to stave off the spread of the
coronavirus, is expected to flow into the prices of a wide range of
minerals and metals. - 
Outokumpu’s business operation not affected by novel coronavirus
epidemic - Outokumpu, the largest stainless steel manufacturer in
Europe, said the epidemic outbreak of novel coronavirus hasn’t affected
its business operation, and the current order volume was even stronger
than before, which might be due to cautious customers not to order from
foreign countries, and the business in the Americas continued growing.
- 
Our Tuesday update will be delayed by a few hours. This may happen
periodically on Tuesdays in the coming weeks.
Stainless steel producer Aperam to pause production at some European
lines - Aperam has decided to halt output temporarily at some of its
European production lines as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, the
Luxembourg-based stainless steel producer said Thursday. - 
2 Italian stainless steel plants decide to shut down to prevent
COVID-19 epidemic - According to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in
the world, especially in Italy, there were more and more steel mills in
Italy decided to temporarily shut down their mill to prevent virus
expansion. - 
VW to start using high-nickel batteries for electric car - Volkswagen
will raise the amount of nickel used in it electric car battery cells
to 80% in the next year from 65% at present, Frank Blome, head of
battery cells at the carmaker said on Tuesday. - 
SLN reopens New Caledonia's Thio site - New Caledonia's biggest private
sector employer, the SLN nickel company, has resumed operations at its
mining site in Thio after shutting down operations last week. - 
More women working in mining in Colombia – report - A report by the
Colombian Mining Association states that the number of women working in
the industry is growing. - 
Cuba's nickel with certified quality - The 'Comandante Ernesto Che
Guevara' cobalt and nickel production factory in Moa metallurgical
mining municipality of this eastern Cuban province, is preparing to
certify its fifth exportable item, according to reports. - 
Import of stainless steel from Indonesia grows nearly nine times -
ISSDA has requested the government to impose an ADD/CVD on imports of
stainless-steel flat products from Indonesia, to counter Chinese
imports, which are now being routed through ASEAN FTA route. - 
