Updated twice daily M-F before 8:00 am CST and by 1 pm CST

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $11.98/lb 3 month buyer - $12.13/lb (19.7% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 118 to 10,210.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 192 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 96tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 24 tonnes from Singapore warehouse, minus 162 tonnes from Busan, South Korea warehouse, minus 12 tonnes from Baltimore, MD, USA warehouse, and plus 60 tonnes into Gothenburg, Sweden warehouse
• Cancelled warrants backed off a tad, but warehouse activity picked up a bunch yesterday. Inventories dropped. Looks bullish, but in fact, considering the dip in cancelled warrants, the net amount actually grew. But it appears the slight drop in the gross figures gave traders pause today, and for much of the trading day, that is exactly what they did. By the end of the day, week and month, three month nickel closed at $12.29/lb ($27,090/tonne)  For the week, three month nickel fell by 6.2% and for the month, it ended down 15.4%. With one month of trading left in 2007, nickel is down 18.6% for the year - so far.
• Closing Metals Report - more
• Have a safe and restful weekend. Here is a short funny video clip for you - video here

  China may become a net exporter of stainless steel next year despite current nickel ore shortages, though restrictive export policies will prevent large-scale exports, industry insiders told Interfax at the 2007 International Seminar on Nickel & Ferro Nickel Alloys with Stainless Steel Market in Qingdao on Friday. - more

  Steel Founders' Society of America November 2007 Casteel Reporter - pdf here  Industry business numbers and graphs - pdf here

  Rusina Mining NL said the saprolite drilling at Acoje mines in Philippines has been completed and that it has shipped 1,000 tonnes of bulk sample of saprolite ore in November for 98,000 usd. - more

  The board of the Philippine Stock Exchange has approved the P894-million initial public offering of local mining firm Oriental Peninsula Resources Corp. - more

  (few weeks old) Value of the ore in one bronze medal at the Olympic Games next summer in Beijing? Just $1. A silver medal? $76. Gold? $230. Value of being the first company designated "Official Diversified Minerals and Medals Sponsor of the Games?" - more

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:57 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.10/lb . We monitor numerous indicators to get an idea of what is going on with daily LME trading and this morning, these indicators are all over the map. Some show a slight gain, while others show steep losses. As we are posting this, nickel is in AM kerb trading, which can be quite volatile on someday's. We will update if we see any major price changes.
• Bloomberg - more

  Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "LME nickel likely to hold above support at $25,000/ton if momentum selling resumes in London trade, says Tokyo-based LME broker. ....Broker says nickel's failure to break above $35,000 in mid-November disappointed longs, triggering selling toward $31,000, and fresh shorting by funds drove it to current level. But as $25,000 support held on Aug. 16 when nickel touched 2007 low, that level appears to be psychological bottom, broker says"

  Metals investors are poised for a bumpy ride next year, caught between a slowdown in the United States and uncertainty whether China can take up the slack. - more

  Taiwan’s stainless steel mills including Yieh United Steel Corp. (YUSCO) and Tang Eng Iron Works have announced to reduce their domestic stainless prices on stainless steel hot rolled product (No.1) prices by NT$2,000/ton, effective from December. - more

  (excerpt) "Hassey predicted the U.S. stainless steel market will have a "full recovery" in the first quarter of 2008 after slumping demand for the metal caused the company to cut its profit forecast for the second half of 2007. " - more here

  (comment - interesting article about Xin Mining in China and their comments about pig nickel - $1 = 7.44 yuan) (excerpt) "But the red soil nickel ore technical barrier and the production cost is higher, according to our understanding, at present uses the red soil nickel ore the production cost approximately in 180,000 Yuan/ton levels, (contains tax) by the present domestic 270,000/ton nickel price to calculate, only the profit margin approximately in 10-15% level, considered the red soil nickel ore higher development risk, we thought present the nickel price is insufficient to stimulate red native ores large-scale mining the enthusiasm." - translated article here (red soil nickel ore is laterite ore. This could simply be another nickel miner down playing the overall impact of pig nickel.)

  (excerpt) The company is not currently a producer of nickel but Rio Tinto copper chief executive Bret Clayton said the group could potentially become a top ten producer of the commodity. - more

  Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, the world's No. 2 mining company by market capitalization, simplified Thursday its name to Vale and launched a new logo that will be used for all units of the company. Chinese media is also reporting Vale is looking for buyers for ferro-nickel from its Onca Puma mine, on track to begin production in November of 2008.  Onca Puma is projected to produce 57,000 tonnes of nickel per year.

  (comment - it's a little hard to figure out what exactly is going in China when producers announce production cuts and then we find stuff like this in Chinese media) Translated article titled ' Nickel-smuggling "new favorite" - more here (and maybe this doesn't seem odd to you, but here in the States, smugglers usually get caught with illegal drugs strapped to their bodies. In the Middle East, it is somewhat fashionable to strap bombs to one's self. But nickel?)

  Japanese trading houses and steelmakers stayed away from spot ferromoly trade this week to avoid the risk of increased export taxes in China, market sources said Thursday. - more

  Black snow. Coal dust. Sulfuric air. Welcome to life in the world's most polluted places. - more

  Vladimir Potanin, the co-owner of MMC Norilsk Nickel, is trying to raise $15 billion from London investment banks to take control of the world's biggest palladium and nickel producer, The Times reported, quoting unnamed sources. - more (if you are interested to learn more about how Potanin came to control Norilsk - here are a few video excerpts from a PBS series - video here)

  Stopping stainless steel from becoming stainless steal - more

  The world's largest iron ore producer, Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), has begun talks with clients over ore price increases for the coming term, company president Roger Agnelli said on Thursday. - more

  South Korea's UBS Hana Asset Management, majority owned by the world's largest wealth manager, said on Tuesday it will start a 260 billion won ($278.5 million) fund in December that will invest in a Madagascar nickel mine. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - minus 42 tons = 44,862 tonnes (4.68% - 2100 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 42,762 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 248500-251000 RMB/t, minus 4000

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $12.59/lb 3 month buyer - $12.77/lb (15.4% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 170 to 10,092.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 546 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 54 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 12 tonnes from Baltimore, MD, USA warehouse
• For those looking for stainless steel prices to follow nickel's fall proportionally, keep a couple of things in the back of your mind. First, ferrochrome is up - way up, with expectations it will go even higher in the first quarter of 2008. Second, iron ore prices are heading up. By how much exactly, has yet to be negotiated, but most analysts seem to feel a 50% increase is very likely. Third, the freight to move raw material around the world has gone astronomical this year. Remember that report we posted a few months back where it actually costs more to ship iron ore from Brazil, than the iron ore in the ship was worth? For a stainless steel producer, freight costs are no longer something you can dismiss as a cost of doing business. And unlike stainless steel end users, who can pick and chose a vendor based on their proximity and the potential savings in freight cost, stainless steel producers can only get nickel, ferrochrome, iron ore, and molybdenum from certain mining locations in the world. That means cargo ships, not UPS or FedEx. With nickel costs determining up to 60% of the cost of 300 series stainless, any drop in the price nickel will certainly help stainless steel users, but an overall decrease in stainless steel prices will not come nearly as fast as the increase was. Interfax confirmed our report on Tuesday that China's TISCO was cutting back on December stainless production. Why do we care? Because they are the largest producer of stainless in China. Interfax also reported "Other major domestic stainless steelmakers, namely Zhangjiagang POSCO and Guangzhou Lianzhong Stainless Steel, also plan to cut production of series-200 and series-300 stainless steel in December". Market slowdown? Or glut of production in China? Keep in mind that Hao Peigang, senior economist with TISCO's policy research office, also told Interfax, that even with the reduction, "this year's production will increase 950,000 tonnes from last year".
• So, what happened to nickel prices today? They were actually up this morning, but in afternoon trading, lost any tweak of bullish momentum they had mustered and took another nose dive. Nearly 5% lower for the day, and around 20% lower from just three weeks ago. Cancelled warrants continue to climb, but outbound nickel shipments dried up yesterday. Not much for the bullish trader to hang onto. With only one trading day remaining in November, three month nickel ended today's trading at $12.22/lb ($26,950/tonne)       
• Closing Metals Report - more
• Christmas cards will soon be arriving in your mailbox, so please accept ours online - here (sound required)

  ScotiaBank Commodity Price Index - pdf here

  Copyright/courtesy Platts - "Nickel I think will stay in the $25,000-30,000 range for the medium term," said the trader. "The stocks are quite plentiful now, and are much higher than, say, six months back, but that can all change very quickly. There's a good supply of scrap in the US from what I hear, but the situation is a bit tighter in China."

  Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Group) Co. Ltd (TISCO), China's largest stainless steel maker, will cut stainless steel production in December in an attempt to invigorate the current sluggish market, a company official told Interfax today at 2007 International Seminar on Nickel & Ferro Alloys With Stainless Steel Market in Qingdao. - more (this is the formal announcement which confirms our report on Tuesday)

  China has produced more than 408 million tons of steel in the first 10 months this year, up 18.14% over the same period last months, according the statistics of China Steel & Iron Association.

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:55am CST show 3 month nickel selling up by $.05/lb. Cancelled warrants up over 5% - is it inventory actually bought by producers for use - or just investors playing the market? The former is bullish, the latter, with inventories still increasing, would be bearish.
• Bloomberg - more

  Standard Bank: Weekly Commodity Research - pdf here

  Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "LME nickel has come under technical selling pressure after failing to break above $30,000/ton for two days running, says one London-based trader. Sees support at $26250/ton, then $25,000/ton. Rising nickel stocks are adding to concerns of diminished demand, he says."  "LME nickel inventories have reached their highest level since January 2000 this week at almost 44,500 metric tons although prices have remained relatively high, says analyst Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank. "We are happy with our forecast of $30,000/ton for nickel in the fourth quarter; we remain pessimistic for the coming quarters on the back of the high supply of laterites at the moment," he says.

  Courtesy Bloomberg - "``As stocks continue to hit LME warehouses, the market seems to get more comfortable with'' betting against nickel, traders at RBC Capital Markets, led by Alex Heath in London, wrote today in a daily report."

  Asia's largest nickel producer China Jinchuan Group cropped its ex-plant price by 8,000 yuan/ton on Wednesday, as a result of weak international nickel market. - more

  South Korean Posco is going to run for 200 series stainless steel production before the end of November. - more

  According to the statistic record for October, Taiwan’s import of stainless steel hot rolled was about 20,272 tons, which is up by 26 percent compared with the last month. - more

  The non-ferrous metal sector dominated by aluminium, zinc and copper has not been able to show encouraging results in quarter ended September 2007.  - more

  It is reported that the first cold rolled stainless steel production line in West China came on stream on November 26th 2007 in Jiuquan Iron & Steel Co Ltd. The line can yield high grade 300 series and 400 series CR stainless strip steel with annual capacity of 530,000 tonnes. - more

  China will see steel product oversupply in the domestic market next year due to restrictive steel product export measures, the National Development and Reform Commission announced in a report released yesterday. - more

  Commodity prices and the Canadian dollar are bouncing around in a way that's taking a lot of the fun out of investing in commodity stocks.- more

  It is reported that 26 Indonesian sailors are feared dead after their Panamanian registered 27,000 tonne iron ore freighter MV Mezzanine hit rough seas off Taiwan's north coast. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 480 tons = 44,904 tonnes (5.16% - 2,316 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 42,588 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 252500-255000 RMB/t, minus 4500  

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $12.52/lb 3 month buyer - $12.58/lb (16.7% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - plus 25 to 9,922.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 324 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 78 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 66 tonnes from Busan, South Korea warehouse, and plus 216 tonnes into Vlissingen, Netherlands warehouse (just down the coast from Rotterdam)
• MF Global reported in their daily report this morning that nickel prices could be heading down to test the new support level of $12.00/lb. We can not find any legitimate reasons to disagree with them. In an environment of bearish news, only cancelled warrants give the fundamentals a tweak of bullishness. Traders are facing the INSG's recent report of a 120,000 tonne surplus this year, which may slip to 100,000 tonnes next year 'IF' the stainless steel market rebounds with some vigor. And while this report may have been initially pooh-poohed by some, the constant daily gain in LME inventories does give a repetitive reminder of that forecast. Realistically, a person would be hard pressed to justify the increase in the price of nickel over the past few months. Traders gambled that the stainless steel market would recover more quickly than it appears to have, and while most would tell you it hasn't recovered, we tend to believe it is doing better than most will admit, and nickel supply is easily handling the demand. We could be wrong, but we are seeing a lot of little clues floating around that tell us the stainless steel market isn't in as bad a shape as some would have us believe, and that the real problem the stainless steel market is facing, is not current under-production, but future over-production. Much the same as we believe the nickel market could be facing very soon. If this proves true, nickel prices could be in for a rough ride. But...as we remind ourselves daily, these are different times we live in and market 'facts' and market 'fundamentals' don't always travel on the same road. Nickel prices headed lower this morning, with a downward curve until the end of the day, when a small portion of the days losses were recovered. For today, three month nickel ended trading at $12.75/lb ($28,100/tonne)
• Closing Metals Report - more

  Dainan, China employs 50,000 people in nearly 1,000 stainless steel production and processing enterprises (source)

  The "red-hot M&A" environment is "molding and moving" Europe's metals and mining sector, but hidden risks include lack of attention to debt reduction, in an atmosphere of rising costs and slowing US growth, according to a report published Tuesday by ratings agency Standard & Poor's. - more

  Low grade laterite ore imports into China (pig nickel) - Imports of nickel ore to China for the first ten months 2007 grew 4.6 times in comparison to the same period in 2006 and amounted to 13.14 million tons. The Philippines led the group, with shipments growing 2.6 fold and totalling 6.75 million tons thru October. Indonesia came in second, where ten month shipments of 5.22 million tons of nickel ore were 29.4 times more than a year ago. New Caledonia has shipped 3.92 million tons of nickel ore thru October, 18.08 times higher than a year ago. According to China customs, China imports of nickel ore increased 64.5% in October compared with October of 2006.

  I am not a big fan of hedge funds. In my opinion, one of the main reasons why the original Inco/Falconbridge merger was not successful was a result of these “predatory financial carnivores.” - more

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.36/lb . Regardless of your situation, either as a benefactor or victim of higher nickel prices, a bull or a market bear, you'll have to admit, nickel prices have gotten beat up pretty badly the last few weeks.  
• Bloomberg - more
• CNN - more

  MF Global's Market Watch Monthly - pdf here

  INSG Outlook for Global Nickel Market in 2007-2008 by INSG Chief Statistician Sven Tollin - pdf here

  QuantumDirect Commodities Insight - pdf here

  US Imports of Stainless Steel Products Preliminary Data for October revised - here

  In order to rush domestic nickel-based stainless steel scrap resources, Japanese distributors have raised their purchasing price to JPY 316,000 per ton (pt) comparing to early July, when the price has hiked by around JPY 100,000pt. - more

  Russian oligarch Vladimir Potanin is struggling to raise over $15 billion from London investment banks to mount a takeover bid for OAO Norilsk Nickel, U.K. newspaper The Times reports Wednesday.- more

  It is reported that the first production line of cold rolled stainless steel in west of china had been put into production at Jiugang’s stainless plant on November 26th 2007. - more

  For its 100 candles on the cake in 2010, the factory site of the SLN launches a contest of architects and urban integration. A clean Doniambo program for less harmful effects, more modernity, of creativity, pride. - translated article here

  European steelmakers launched a new anti-dumping complaint over surging imports of steel from China on Tuesday, a day before a China-European Union summit dominated by growing trade friction. - more

  BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, is losing the support of investors and steelmakers for its proposed US$128 billion ($170 billion) takeover of Rio Tinto. - more    THE Chinese Government says it is closely watching the bid by BHP Billiton for Rio Tinto, amid concerns iron ore prices will remain stable if the two giant resources companies merge. - more

  Monument of glass and stainless steel - here

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 396 tons = 44,424 tonnes (4.88% - 2166 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 42,258 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 257000-259500RMB/t, minus 5500

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $12.84/lb 3 month buyer - $13.04/lb (13.6% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 106 to 9,890.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 342 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 175 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 12 tonnes from Busan, South Korea warehouse, minus 18 tonnes from Chicago, IL, USA warehouse, minus 66 tonnes from Singapore warehouse
• Taiyuan Iron and Steel, while yet to formally announce, appears to be getting ready to announce further cuts in stainless steel production in December, due to "depressed" market conditions. That's the news for the bears - another tidbit in the Chinese article might give the bulls something to hang onto. Quote from the article "on the one hand is the steel mill does not have the resources to be allowed to emit". Another translator put it this way..."but the volume of stock of the nickel steel is not abundant either in the steel factory at present, it is reported, there is no nickel steel supply of stock in November." This report is contrary to other Chinese media reports we have seen where the situation of stainless steel in China was defined as "a glut". This report tells us that inventories of stainless, at least at the factory level, are very low, and producers are still hesitant to fire back up, when customers (primarily distributors if like most producers) aren't willing to gamble nickel won't drop further and once again, make stainless steel inventory over-priced. It's all a big catch-22. Nickel traders don't make money unless the price goes up, or down. That kind of volatility, and uncertainty of which way the trend might turn on a week to week basis, has the stainless steel industry sitting on its hands, fearful of how low the next dip might turn out to be. Cancelled warrants rose again today, and nickel shipments from LME warehouses outpaced receipts, although not enough to offset the volume. Considering cancelled warrants, the LME net inventory of nickel actually retreated today, although gross volume showed a slight gain. This tells us a few buyers got off their hands, and are either timing their buys right, or couldn't hold off any longer and got lucky. Then again, with the official cash nickel falling $.40/lb today, and purchases made by the tonne, maybe they weren't so lucky. It's a total crap shoot, more so these days than in years past, and anyone who would 'want' to be a nickel buyer for a stainless steel producer in these times, is either crazy, or a masochist. Nickel had another down day, spending much of the trading day in the red. For the day, three month nickel ended trading at $13.02/lb ($ 28,700/tone) 
• Closing Metals Report - more

  Market analysis: Nickel and Stainless, November 2007 - pdf here

  The global scramble to lock up critical energy and industrial commodity assets is fast, furious, and unlikely to abate anytime soon. - more

  European Union regulators will probably examine a complaint by steelmakers ArcelorMittal and ThyssenKrupp AG about cheap steel imports from China, a step that could lead to punitive duties, the EU's trade chief said. - more

  German steelmakers urged Brussels on Tuesday to block miner BHP Billiton's planned takeover of rival Rio Tinto that would create a $350 billion-plus industry giant. - more

  China's iron and steel production growth slowed from September to October this year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) reported yesterday. - more

  Iceland has overtaken Norway as the world's most desirable country to live in, according to an annual U.N. table published on Tuesday that again puts AIDS-afflicted sub-Saharan African states at the bottom. - more and complete list here

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.05/lb . Nickel price has spent most of the early trading hours in the red, although there was an earlier push into the green that failed. Prices have traded within a $500/tonne range so far today. As of 7:50 am CST, indicators show only aluminum and tin in the green, while all other LME traded metals were in the red.
• Bloomberg - more

  Canada Commodity Report Update - pdf here

  Behre Dolbear Global Mining News - pdf here

  TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price Report - pdf here

  Reuters Metal Weekly - pdf here

  Copyright/courtesy Scotia Captial - "In October, China imported 9,257 tonnes of refined nickel, up 33.3% MOM and 17.7% YOY. In the same month, China imported 1,062,226 tonnes of nickel ore, down 6% MOM. The breakdown on China’s nickel ore imports by origin are: 484,342 tonnes from the Philippines, 431,658 tonnes from Indonesia, and 104,612 tonnes from New Caledonia.".."We are now bullish on the coking coal, iron ore, copper, zinc, aluminum, molybdenum, oil, methanol, and hardwood pulp sectors. We are neutral on grains, ethylene, potash, DAP, urea, and nickel. We are cautious on steel and paper products on a relative basis from a China perspective."

  When the quantities of molybdenum in molybdenum concentrates produced by major companies of the western world in January - September of 2007 have been traced, the total output of molybdenum in the first 9 months of 2007 has decreased compared with that in the same period of 2006. - more

  China’s Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel plans to reduce its production output in December. - more

  China Import Statistics - from Top 10 import countries/regions and 5 major products report (xl here) from Australia - HS Code 7502 Unwrought nickel Jan-Oct 2007 1,035,798,887 Jan-Oct 2006 297,083,873 / HS Code 7501 Nickel mattes, nickel oxide sinters & other intermediate products of nickel metal-lurgy Jan-Oct 2007 847,014,198 Jan-Oct 2006 318,112,757  ....from Philippines - HS Code 2604 Nickel ores and concentrates Jan-Oct 2007 678,824,593 Jan-Oct 2006 102,460,543

  South Korea's UBS Hana Asset Management, majority owned by the world's largest wealth manager, said on Tuesday it will start a 260 billion won fund in December that will invest in a Madagascar nickel mine. - more

  If UC Rusal buys a 25 percent plus one share in Norilsk Nickel from Oneksim, the new diversified metal company would have a capitalization of about $90 billion, RBC Daily has reported. - more

  Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending November 24, 2007, domestic raw steel production was 2,044,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 85.7 percent. Production was 1,887,000 tons in the week ending November 24, 2006, while the capability utilization then was 81.5 percent. The current week production represents an 8.3 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending November 24, 2007 is down 0.4 percent from the previous week ending November 17, 2007 when production was 2,054,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 86.1 percent. Adjusted year-to-date production through November 24, 2007 was 96,206,000 tons, at a capability utilization rate of 86.1 percent. That is a 3.2 percent decrease from the 99,456,000 tons during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 89.0 percent."

  When spotlight has been put on the production activities of manganese ore at major mines in January - September of 2007, it is known that the world production of manganese ore in this period had slowed down as a whole. - more

  A little bit of history courtesy of 'American Metal Market' magazine (source) (all copyright Cahners Business Information and Gale Group) We reviewed the issues of 11/1/01 thur 11/5/01 because nickel fell to an official low of $4465/tonne for 3 month on November 2nd, 2001, and has been, for the most part, bullish ever since. Others may argue the point, but this could be pegged as the unofficial beginning of the nickel bull market we now find ourselves in . Here are some article quotes from these issue's, that you might get a kick out of, or raise an eyebrow or two. "Nickel prices continued to test support at $2 per pound last week. Nickel hit $2 midweek on the LME but short covering by speculators and some consumer buying pushed prices back up to $2.06 per pound ($4,540 per tonne) late in the week....Some analysts were calling for production cuts to reduce the surplus in 2002. A large stock accumulation could push prices below the $2 per pound mark, they said."(LME nickel inventory on 11/1 - 17,820 tonnes) - "Gloom pervaded the market forecasts offered by scrap traders at the Bureau of International Recycling's nonferrous division meetings here. Marc Natan of Malco, a Paris scrap trading firm and the nonferrous division's new president, pleaded with fellow members to deliver some optimism about the markets. Unfortunately, no one could provide any news to brighten up the session." - Article title "Reduce moly glut, trader urges China"..."Spot market price - Ferromolybdenum Lump, per lb of Mo $ 3.00-$3.20 Estimated market prices per lb of contained Molybdic oxide, canned Producer $2.45-$2.50 Merchant $2.30-$2.35"- "Delegates gathering at this year's Ryan's Notes conference in Orlando, Fla., could all agree on one thing: Business remains tough and all bets on the long-awaited recovery are now off.....What can George Bush do to help our industry? First, he needs to explain to Americans that every effort is being made to secure their safety and way of life. Second, he should recall the fate of his father, the 41st U.S. president, who won the Gulf War but lost the next election because the United States was mired in recession. Once again, "it's the economy, stupid."..."French stainless mill Ugine SA has confirmed a substantial cut in output due to depressed markets. The move by the Usinor SA subsidiary comes after AvestaPolarit and ALZ NV said they are also cutting back. Of the remaining two stainless mills out of Europe's big five, Acerinox SA has declined to comment and Krupp Thyssen Nirosta GmbH said it is maintaining output"...."Finland's Outokumpu Oyj said Thursday it will exit base metals mining and focus on metals production, fabrication and technology." - "The stainless steel market is set to remain tough for at least another six months and possibly for another year, according to Christopher Plummer, managing director of Metal Strategies Inc., West Chester, Pa. Slowing world economic activity had accelerated in recent weeks, he told delegates at Ryan's Notes Ferroalloys Conference here. Excess supplies at mills and service centers, particularly in the United States and parts of Asia, tough conditions in Asia, nickel prices off 40 percent from recent highs, a decline in local currencies against the dollar and high energy prices last year had all taken their toll on the industry.... Raw stainless steel production will decline this year to reflect past overproduction. In North America, it will fall to 2.1 million tonnes from 2.4 million tonnes last year before rising to 2.2 million tonnes in 2002; in Europe it will stay even with last year at 8 million tonnes; while output in Asia (excluding Japan) will fall to 3.3 million tonnes from 3.9 million tonnes last year and remain at that level in 2002. Still, producers around the world were continuing to add capacity, Plummer said, with an additional 3.75 million tonnes coming on-stream between 2000 and 2005." ........comment -  These were days that no one was very happy.

  THE two-tier nature of the commodity market is becoming ever more apparent. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 72 tons = 44,028 tonnes (4.21% - 1854 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 42,174 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 262500-265000 RMB/t, plus 750

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.24/lb 3 month buyer - $13.33/lb (11.3% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 145 to 10,003.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 210 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 90 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 6 tonnes from Busan, South Korea warehouse, plus 60 tonnes into Gothenburg, Sweden warehouse, and plus 222 into Hamburg, Germany warehouse
• Cancelled warrants jumped as buyers of nickel gambled prices had bottomed Friday, which in light of official prices moving back up a little today, was, at least for the moment, a good buy. Nickel drifted today, and traders acted like they were trying to find a floor. Market was up and down, but never far from where it began. Trading appears to be very nervous about economic conditions, with the ever present situation of growing LME inventories. While in years past, the market would be seen as setting itself up for a serious correction in price, we live in different days. With the 'China syndrome' and the ever present unknown of what is really going on in that country, the rules have apparently changed. For the first day of the last trading week of November, three month nickel ended trading at  $13.09/lb ($28,850/tonne)  
• Closing Metals Report - more

  Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "The LME base metals are firmer but it's still too early to tell whether this is the end to the marekts' recent downturn, says a London trader. Notes that any further bearish financial news would renew the downward pressure on LME prices, while equally any potential fresh production disruption would "turn the tide." Given the large number of market shorts, an upwards move would be swift and dramatic, he notes."

  Stainless Steel Price Trend in China (courtesy hme01.com)

  Presentation given by Rio Tinto this morning - nothing for nickel but gives good overall mining/metals market info - pdf here

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:55 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.03/lb. Base metals trading, as a whole, seems to be quiet so far, with most metals trading where they started. Reading some reports from China that more stainless producers may be considering, or are cutting back on stainless steel production again, this time related more to over supply, than a falling nickel price. Since this doesn't appear to be a media campaign to influence the nickel market, we feel these are legitimate reports.
• Bloomberg - more

  Weekly Forecast by SMM Specialist - Of 29 analysts responding, 5 (17%) felt the price of nickel would rise this week, 8 (27%) felt the price would stay the same, while the remaining 16 (55%) felt the price would fall.

  Haywood Metals & mining Weekly - pdf here

  Some participants expressed in a stainless steel industry meeting in China that Chinese stainless steel output would reach 9 million tons in 2015. - more

  Hundreds of workers of the country's largest nickel producer, PT Inco, in Soroako, South Sulawesi, ended their 11-day strike Sunday afternoon. - more

  When the quantities of molybdenum in molybdenum concentrates produced by major companies of the western world in January - September of 2007 have been traced, the total output of molybdenum in the first 9 months of 2007 has decreased compared with that in the same period of 2006. - more

  According to the Vietnam Steel Association, the information that China may raise the export ingot steel tax to 25% from the current rate of 15% in early December 2007, has heated up the regional steel market. - more

  It is reported that annual iron ore contract talks between global steel mills and iron ore majors may not be settled until the second quarter of next year after a jump in cash prices. - more

  Mining group Rio Tinto expects buoyant demand for commodities to last for decades, Chief Executive Tom Albanese said on Monday. - more

  Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's largest iron-ore producer, said China will use a bigger share of the world's metals as consumer spending climbs. - more

  Chinese steelmakers and the country's huge new government investment fund rejected reports saying they were planning to team up in a bid for mining giant Rio Tinto. - more

  China produced 408.52 million tons of steel in the first 10 months of this year, rising 18.14 percent year on year and posting an increase e of 62.73 million tons of crude steel, according to a report released by the National Development and Reform Commission on Nov. 26. - more

  Shares in Norilsk Nickel rose on Monday as the market welcomed news it had another potential buyer. Russia's aluminium major Rusal has offered to buy a 25% stake in the metals company. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 396 tons = 43,956 tonnes (3.36% - 1476 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 42,480 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 262000-264000 RMB/t, minus 500  

  Local bloggers announce the strike at PT Inco on Sulawesi Island has ended.

  It is reported that China's top stainless steel maker Taigang has first taped TTS443 material, which boasts outstanding comprehensive performance to replace 304 in wide applications. - more

  China will join the bidding for Rio Tinto with an initial offer of about 200 bln usd, Beijing-based weekly China Business reported over the weekend. - more  (while this has little to do with current nickel production, it looks the like seeds of the first major mining story of 2008 are being spread. BHP started this with an offer for Tinto that was rejected, and will not be keen to see their merger plans trumped by a third party. China could be in for a difficult time getting approval, if they do bid.) 

  The recent but consistent growth in world GDP has seen higher consumption of ferrous and non-ferrous base metals, leading to an increase in investment focus in these commodities. - more

  The mining sector's value, while hit by fears of a global economic slowdown, has a bright future thanks to strong Chinese demand for metals and the difficulty of unearthing resources in Africa, analysts say. - more

  The sky is the limit for automation in the Australian mining industry. Fully automated mines may seem daunting now, says Australian Centre for Automation and Field Robotics (ACAFR) chief executive Olga Sawtell, but mines can achieve full automation in the near future. - more

  Week in Review - Bullish nickel traders experienced a bruising week, with prices in retreat nearly the entire trading period. Having ended the prior week at $14.17/lb, its lowest close since September 14th, three month nickel ended this weeks trading at $13.20, down 6.8%. This puts nickel down 3.8% for the month, and down 12.6% on the year. MF Global's $13.60/lb support crumpled and by the end of the week, $12.00/lb was given as the new support level. Nickel inventories grew by another 5% over the last five days, and have grown to a point that is getting more and more attention from traders. A strike at an Inco Indonesia mine is either having an effect on nickel production there, although depending on whether you listen to local bloggers and media, or the company, it is unknown exactly to what degree of an effect the strike is having. Ferrochrome prices went over the $2/lb mark on Friday, while the Baltic Dry Index fell most of the week. Nickel buyers will now return to the sidelines and wait for traders to establish a new pricing floor. Less buyers, and LME inventories will continue to grow. The U.S. markets are giving more evidence that the economic pains from the sub-prime scandal are not going to disappear anytime soon, and are starting to affect the confidence in the overall market. China continued to take measures to bring its red hot economy under control, Australia ended the week by electing a new Prime Minister, while the U.S. dollar lost yet more value to overseas currencies.    

  October presentations by David Humphreys, Chief Economist, Norilsk Nickel

• "Global Commodity Demand Trends:The Emergence of China and India" - pdf here
• "How has investment interest in metals affected producers?" - pdf here

  The mood at this week’s biggest ever Mines and Money event organised by the Mining Journal in London was cautiously upbeat; more subdued than last year, but definitely underpinned by a view that the mining boom is alive, well and kicking. - more

  CVRD-Inco is considering a C$750 million ($760 million) investment that would boost production at its Thompson, Manitoba, nickel mining, smelting and refining facilities by about 36 percent, the company said on Friday. - more

  Brazil's mining giant CVRD said on Friday it agreed to raise the salaries of its Brazilian employees by 14.49 percent over a period of two years starting from November. - more

  AIM's Regency Mines has signed a Memorandum of Investment and Co-operation with an Asia-based investment group which could leading to "a substantial investment" in the public company and its various mining exploration projects including Regency's nickel project in Papua New Guinea. - more

  Institute for Supply Management Steel Buyers Survey Report - pdf here

  Various sources - (from International Ferro Metals Ltd website) "The principal use of ferrochrome is in the stainless steel industry, which accounts for around 90% of the 4.5 million tonnes of ferrochrome currently produced annually. Ferrochrome is added to stainless steel for its corrosion and oxidation resistance properties. Stainless steel typically contains between 10 to 30% chromium and, unlike nickel and molybdenum which can also be added to further enhance particular properties of stainless steel, there are no direct substitutes for ferrochrome. Ferrochrome is also used in the production of alloy steels to improve hardness and toughness. As the stainless steel sector consumes approximately 90% of total ferrochrome production..." (from Reuters 11-12) "Ferro chrome prices have doubled over the last couple of years to $1.65 a pound because labour, transport and energy costs have all jumped for major producers in countries such as South Africa and Kazakhstan..."It's indisputable that the costs of production have risen substantially over the last couple of years," said Kevin Fowkes, analyst at Hatch Consultants, adding that he expected costs to rise further over coming months....(note - the price traded over $2/lb Friday).....That, coupled with strong demand from stainless steel makers, especially in emerging markets such as China and India over coming years, mean demand and supply will at the least be balanced."

  GFMS Rhona O'Connell named Commodities Analyst of the Year by London's Association of Mining Analysts at this weeks Mines & Money event.ng to GFMS' website, "Rhona is the managing director of GFMS Analytics and ROC Consultancy, an independent market analysis specialising in metals markets analysis and comment. The specialist areas constitute gold, silver, platinum and palladium, looking at the markets themselves in the context of the economic, political and financial environments while considering also the performance of other asset classes and related mining equities." (ok, maybe its not nickel related but we are always taking swipes at analysts, so we need to give cuddo's to those who deserve it)

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $12.91/lb 3 month buyer - $13.05/lb (13.6% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 180 to 10,148.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 60 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 54 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 18 tonnes from Singapore warehouse, plus 330 tonnes into Hamburg, Germany warehouse, and minus 108 tonnes in Busan, South Korea, warehouse
• MFG Global drops support level for nickel trading to $12/lb, ($26,500/tonne). BDI lost again today, and is now in danger of slumping below the 10,000 mark. Cancelled warrants slipped back again, showing that as long as nickel prices are sliding, buyers will return to the sideline, only buying what they must. No one wants to get burnt like the did in the summer, when prices plummeted from record highs. Trading was in the red most of the day, until a late rally put the price in the green, where it ended. Three month nickel ended the day and week at $13.20/lb ($29,100/tonne)
• Closing Metals Report - more

  Citi Group Commodity Heap - Nickel: Look Before You Leap - pdf here (thanks to a reader)

  Damstahl Stainless Steel Report - November 2007 - pdf here

  Fortis Asian Metals Monthly - pdf here

  Gloom and doom is hitting Canada's base metal mining companies as they react to the recent plunge in commodity prices, but is it a signal that the global growth story is over or just part of a general stock market correction? - more

  China's unwrought nickel exports in October 2007 was 612 mt, which is a 15.5% increase compared with the 530 mt exported in September, the latest figures from the General Administration of Customs of China showed. Nickel exports in January-October totaled 15,644 mt.  - more

  The chairman of Xstrata yesterday, that of Eramet a few days ago... New Caledonia will have to be accustomed to the visits of the business leaders of nickel. - translated article here

  According to newspaper Vedomosti, Mr. Prokhorov in the interview for the first time opens up for a company merger with Rusal. Norilsk Nickel is the biggest nickel producer in the world, and a merger with Rusal would create an unprecedented Russian industrial company. - more

  Ufaleinikel, a division of Industrial Metallurgical Holding, produced 10,469 tonnes of nickel in the first nine months of 2007, 0.6% more than in the same period last year. - more

  BNamericas reports the following today "Brazilian antitrust authority Cade has approved the acquisition of Canadian nickel miner Inco by Rio de Janeiro-based mining and metals group CVRD, Brazilian and international press reported. CVRD acquired Inco last year in a deal worth US$18bn." (Makes you wonder what would have happened if they said no this late in the game. Make them give it back? And if so, to whom?)

  We have no idea what they are saying but the title of this Chinese tv report is "Chinese nickel all" turning hostile"  (video) IE only

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:55 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.07/lb . Nickel was the only metal in the red this morning, as we post the morning update.
• Bloomberg - more
• Reuters - more

  John Kemp of Sempra Metals says: “We’ve seen a general darkening of the macroeconomic outlook, a deterioration in risk appetite, a broad repricing of assets and increases in metals supplies, and this has left the base metals complex dancing in thin air.”

  It has been a rollercoaster ride for nickel prices this year, and with global demand expected to rise 10% in 2008, one analyst sees a recovery for the metal. - more

  China's hunger for oil and minerals will continue to drive up commodity prices for years to come and be a key factor in global demand for Canadian resources, suggests a Bank of Canada report published Thursday. - more

  Copper, zinc and nickel metal prices have been see-sawing all through 2007. Currently, metal prices are moving lower with many funds that invested in these metals booking profits before the year-end. - more

  China's hefty appetite for raw materials may wane after next year’s Olympics as social and inflationary pressures curb investment, London Metal Exchange official Phillip Crowson said.  - more

   The global credit crisis has hit Asia with a vengeance for the first time, triggering a massive flight to safety as investors across the region pull out of risky assets. - more

  Courtesy RongPhui - The Russian tube industry development fund has appealed to the Russian ministry for economic development and trade to impose quotas on imports of stainless steel pipes into Russia.

  Copyright/courtesy RTT News - "China's October Purchasing Managers Index declined to 53.2 from 56.1 in September, according to data released Thursday by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, marking the third straight month that the index has fallen. A gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, a PMI reading of above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 means contraction."

  Berong Nickel Corp., company partly owned by Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corp. that operates a nickel mine site in Palawan, plans to buy an integrated steel plant in China. - more  (not hearing of any possible damage to nickel mines on Palawan from yesterday's typhoon yet)

  Nickel miner PT International Nickel Indonesia (INCO.JK), or Inco, expects 2007 nickel matte output to remain at 165 million pounds despite the ongoing strike at its main nickel plant, a senior executive told reporters Friday. - more

  Copyright/courtesy Ujungpandang Ekspres (poorly translated excerpt) "The employee's action PT Inco apparently continues to drag on. Pangaruh this action is currently beginning to spread. The support for the employee continues to flow. Thousands of Sorowako residents from three groups descended and held the solidarity action. Was based on the letter of delivery of action delivery that was received  from District Police Lutim, in Malili, on Tuesday (20/11), the community's three Sorowako components, Kerukunan Wawania Asli Sorowako (KWAS), the Forum for Pemuda Asli Communication Sorowako (FK-PAS), and the Forum for the Young Man the Sorowako Bersatu Village (FPDSB) that the amount will be around 3,000 people descend held the demonstration, on Thursday (22/11) tomorrow. This action is to support and gave the moral spirit towards the struggle for the Inco employee's that was stalling the work. The action plan for thousands of residents will be mediated by KWAS, FK-PAS, and FPDSB, to PT Inco Sorowako, tomorrow, it was confirmed by District Police Chief Luwu Timur AKBP Drs HR Umar Faroq SH....."Therefore, the District Police side asked for help" of the "security." Regional Police South Sulawesi sent 110 Brimob personnel from Parepare as well as two Platon Brimob Baebunta to back up the security unit....Director Corporate Communication PT Inco, Janus T Siahaan, when contacted on Tuesday (20/11), acknowledged that. "Indeed had the decline" in the "production because of most employees from the mine part and prosesing as well as the processing carried out the demonstration." But the activity of our export stayed proceeding although his capacity was low enough, he explained. However Janus was reluctant to say how big the percentage of the decline in the production, including the loss that was experienced since the occurrence of this demonstration action. "I did not know how many losses and the percentage" of the "decline" in the "production capacity, including the number of employees who carried out the demonstration," he explained." (source) (It is becoming increasingly apparent that local media is making more of this than PT Inco is. )

  Bloomberg reported that Cia Vale do Rio Doce will postpone about 20 iron ore shipments in December 2007 causing shipping rates to slump today. - more

  It is reported that Chinese steelmakers, which are likely to embark on the benchmark ore price negotiations with leading global ore miners in late November, would be helped by declining iron ore spot prices and shipping cost, both of which have shown weakening sign in recent days. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 210 tons = 43,560 tonnes (2.55% - 1110 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 42,440 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 262000-265000 RMB/t,  minus 3000

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.33/lb 3 month buyer - $13.43/lb (11.1% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 189 to 10,328.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 510 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 72 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 36 tonnes from Chicago, IL, USA warehouse, and plus 318 tonnes into Hamburg, Germany warehouse
• Obviously, the $30,000 tonne support level has failed, and nickel prices continue to slump. Buyers who may have jumped in a few days ago, may now back off again, waiting to see where nickel's current stumble will end. Having been burnt badly earlier in the year, few will want to buy high again, with evidence clearly showing further reduction in prices are very likely. Three month nickel ended the day at $13.06/lb ($28,800/tonne)
• Closing Metals Report - more
• BN Americas - more

  A "agreement of project" was voted unanimously by the Congress. If the text were validated, there does not remain about it less some reserves as for the lawful constraints which will frame really the factory. - more

  Courtesy/copyright China Stainless Steel Association - Guangzhou Together stainless steel company said that in order to revitalize the sluggish domestic stainless steel market, it will stop selling 201 hot-rolled stainless steel in November.... In recent weeks, the domestic 200 series stainless steel market is sluggish, and transaction prices have fallen.

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.01/lb . Not much happening with nickel this morning, and news is light with US markets closed for Thanksgiving. Interfax is reporting that nickel imports into China soared last month. Considering this, and with LME inventories bulging, have we entered the surplus phase of the supply/demand equation, or is the stock coming into LME warehouses a reflection of slower European and American stainless steel markets?
• Bloomberg - done

  Standard Bank: Weekly Commodity Research - pdf here

  Base metals were the target of an early commodities sell-off on Thursday as Shanghai zinc futures plunged 11 percent and copper fell by its 4 percent daily limit, on rising fears of a U.S. economic slowdown. - more

   courtesy Interfax - "China imported 9,257 tons of refined nickel in October this year, 33.3 percent more than the previous month and 17.7 percent more from the same period last year, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs today."

  In order to rush domestic nickel based stainless steel scrap resources, Japanese distributors have raised their purchasing price to ?316,000/ton. - more

  It is reported that China's top steelmaker Baosteel, which announced increase in prices for Q1 of 2008 is likely to steer China's steel price trend next year. - more

  Another battle may be shaping up between China and Japan. This time, it's over iron ore. - more

  BHP Billiton Ltd, the Australian mining company bidding to buy Rio Tinto Group, may fail to convince customers concerned about a duopoly of the iron ore trade that the combined company will be able to overcome labor and port constraints hindering production, analysts said. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 720 tons = 43,350 tonnes (2.92% - 1266 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 42,084 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 265500-267500 RMB/t,  minus 2500

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.43/lb 3 month buyer - $13.56/lb (10.2% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 130 to 10,517.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 60 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 48 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 36 tonnes from Chicago, IL, USA warehouse, plus 96 tonnes into Baltimore, MD, USA warehouse, and plus 234 tonnes into Hamburg, Germany warehouse
• The U.S. dollar hits record low against Euro for second day in a row today. This is typically good for metals, but you couldn't tell that today.  The recession talk is getting louder in the U.S. What a possible recession in the States might mean to the rest of the world is not nearly as clear as it might have been in years past, but it is having a psychological effect on world traders. LME traded base metals spent the day in the red, across the board. From a traders point of view, looking at the nickel chart today, you might have thought the market was looking at $30,000 tonne as a resistance point, and not the support point it was. Spending much of the day below support, nickel peaked above it a few times, only to recoil. Typically, those who play the charts, might say it usually takes a couple of days for a metal to close below support, before new support levels are established. With nickel trading solidly below that level for most of today, they may not wait to establish a lower one. While nickel had another down day, it fared better than some other base metals. For the day, three month nickel ended the day at $13.47/lb  ($29,695/tonne)
• Closing Metals Report - more
• Forbes - more
• U.S markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. We will post a morning update at the regular time, and an evening report.

  Nickel buyers are expected to return strongly to the market early next year, an executive at Russian producer Norilsk Nickel said Wednesday. - more

  The subprime debacle may well be the precursor to massive liquidation in the metals and other commodity markets, according to David Threlkeld, president of U.S.-based Resolved Metals. - more

  Rusmet reports that the "wave of reduction" in stainless steel production in Europe has stopped and that distributors are "carefully" replenishing their stocks. The current market for stainless steel in Europe is rated as "satisfactory, rather than good".

  Photo's taken of strike and operations at PT Inco in Soroako, Sulawesi Island, Indonesia - here  Reports in western media are stating this strike involves about 100 workers. Bloggers in the area put the number much higher. Here is quote from one last Thursday (translated) "Thousands Of employees who were bundled into the Kimia Trade Union, Energi, and the Mining (SP KEP) PT International Nickel Indonesia (Inco) CVRD Soroako, Kabupaten Luwu Timur (Lutim) held the strike, on Thursday (15/11)." (source) (another - notice one English speaking reader warned the author of this blog to be careful what they reported)

  We are looking for a source that monitors low grade nickel ore "pig nickel" prices into China. At one time, we had three separate Chinese sources, two of which have discontinued posting the info, and the third, has gone subscription only. We don't charge for our service, and refuse to pay to read anyone else's. If anyone knows of a free source that posts regular updates of this info, please let us know. Thank you.

  Researchers from the Department of Legal Medicine, Toxicology and Psychiatry of the University of Granada (UGR) developed a new method to detect metal concentrations in iron and steel industry workers. - more

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.23/lb . Nickel trading has spent all morning in the red, most of that below the $30,000 tonne support. It does not appear that this support level is going to hold. Interesting to note that cancelled warrants are creeping back up. This implies that there are nickel buyers out there, but they are shopping for the best price and watching the market closely for dips.
• Bloomberg - more
• Reuters - more

  Behre Dolbear Global Mining News - pdf here

  Commonwealth Research - The HARD Line - pdf here

  Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "JP Morgan's Michael Jansen advises against being short LME nickel as stainless steel fundamentals have been so poor in recent months they are bound to improve, while market has been building up shorts, so short-covering is expected at some stage. Expects nickel to hold support at $29,000-$30,000 near-term, but notes demand from stainless steel sector needs to pick up..."

  The global nickel market was close to balance in the first nine months of the year, the World Bureau For Metal Statistics said Wednesday, although it didn't provide a figure. - more  WBMS press release here

  Most mills have started talking about rise in stainless steel prices, but there is no any mill will easier to up its prices and unlikely to agree any increase until the market is stable. However, it looks like the prices have reached bottom for now and downstream users are expected to replenish their inventory level at the moment. In short, this will depend a lot on nickel price - more

  A labor strike is continuing at the Sorowako nickel mine run by the Indonesian unit of Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) and continuing to hurt production there, a company official said Wednesday - more

  IISI revision - October 2007 Crude Steel Production (Revised) - here

  World crude steel production for the 67 countries reporting to the International Iron and Steel Institute was 114.0 million tonnes in October 2007 up by 6.6% YoY as compared to October 2006. - more

  Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - "South Korea's state procurement agency Wednesday bought 200 metric tons of nickel cathode, and has tendered for another 200 tons for Nov. 28, a senior official at the agency said Wednesday.  The winning bidder for Wednesday's tender was Korea Ores & Metals Co., which will receive a $487/ton premium over the London Metal Exchange cash contract, said Han Gunwo, director of the Public Procurement Service's raw material stockpiles division. "

  Production of Canada's Leading Minerals - Sept 2007 - pdf here

  Russia's Interros holding company said it has made an offer to acquire Mikhail Prokhorov's minority stake in OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel, (Nachrichten) Interfax reported. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 306 tons = 42,630 tonnes (2.52% - 1074 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 41,556 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 268000-270000 RMB/t, plus 1500

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $13.54/lb 3 month buyer - $13.56/lb (10.4% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 133 to 10,647.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 126 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, minus 36 tonnes from Rotterdam warehouse, minus 36 tonnes from Singapore warehouse, and plus 276 tonnes into Hamburg, Germany warehouse.
• It took a week for the news to digest, but steel associations around the world are now complaining about the possible merger between BHP and Tinto (we refer to Rio Tinto as Tinto as RIO is the stock symbol for CVRD and calling them RIO sometimes confuses readers). Yesterday, it was the Chinese, Japanese, and IISI. Today, the South Korean's, and Eurofer joined in (here) and (here). LME nickel trading took market watchers on a roller coaster ride today. At one point nickel had fallen nearly $900/tonne below the support level of $30,000. But from that low point of the day, the price rebounded, possibly on news out of the US that housing starts were slightly higher than previously forecast. New housing permits were lower than forecast, and U.S. housing starts play a tiny part of the overall nickel picture, but traders, starving for some positive news, grabbed on to it. While hesitating at a few points in the afternoon when it climbed back over $30,000, the market finally settled down to trade above that level in late day trading. At least for today, support has held. LME inventories continue to climb, with the Hamburg, Germany warehouse storing its first nickel stockpile since early this year. Trading bulls appear to be in a foul mood. The ever present credit problems in the U.S. have added a question mark to every forecast, metal inventories continue to increase, China is talking about even more measures to slow its economy growth, the novelty U.S. dollar toilet paper could soon be worth more than the currency, and stainless steel producers are keeping their cards close to their chests. All in all, it's harder to find bullish news for nickel these days. For Tuesday, three month nickel closed trading at  $13.74/lb ($30,300/tonne)
• Closing Metals Report - more

  Copper and most other base metals continued to slide in Asia yesterday, as concerns of a credit freeze in China weighed on an already ailing US economy. - more

  Iron ore prices are expected to shoot up by 30 to 50 percent next year, as growing urbanisation in countries such as China and India is likely to boost demand for steel, a fund manager said on Tuesday. - more

  copyright/courtesy Scotia Capital - "China’s recycled metal production totalled 4.53 million tonnes in 2006, far more than the 2.39 million tonnes seen in 2002, according to China Metals. And of the country’s total consumption of major non-ferrous metals last year, recycled metal accounted for 23.8%. The Recycling Metal Branch predicted that the production of secondary metal would exceed 5.2 million tonnes this year, and recycled metal would account for over 25% of the country’s total metal consumption."

  (excerpt from Oct 31 report) "Whilst the price of nickel at one stage halved from its all-time highs of earlier this year, we believe this is all part of an elaborate game being played by Chinese metal buyers. They are well known for talking down their own future demand - we saw it last year with respect to both copper and zinc (before both metals bounced back firmly) - in an attempt to drive down metal prices. A few months they talked down nickel demand and the nickel price responded accordingly. We believe this is only temporary however and that prices will once again return to all-time highs over the next couple of years." - source  (comment - this author is either bullish or full of bull. Or both.) (thanks to a reader for bringing this to our attention)

  Growing demand from the stainless steel industry and static world production could lead to shortages of molybdenum in 2008, George Song of Shanxiang Minmetals told delegates at the MB Ferro-alloys conference in Monte Carlo. - more

  The Gateway Upgrade Project, to duplicate a motorway bridge across the Brisbane River in Australia’s Queensland, will use duplex LDX 2101® stainless steel reinforcement bar from Outokumpu in a ground-breaking move towards sustainable infrastructure development at competitive cost.  - more

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.23/lb . It appears that the $30,000/tonne support on nickel has possibly failed this morning. Too early to count it out yet, but the price has fallen thru it pretty hard, and although prices have recovered somewhat, it appears to be in serious trouble. This could mean further price declines. 
• Bloomberg - more
• Reuters - more

  Canada Commodity Price Update - pdf here

  TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price Report - pdf here

  Analysts at ABN Amro bank in London see nickel prices unwinding after a blistering rally that started in 2001, with the market staying in surplus around 100,000 metric tons. - more

  US based Specialty Steel Industry of North America (SSINA) has announced their statistics on year-on-year comparison of consumption and import penetration, referring to first 8 months in 2006 and 2007. - more

  Production figures released by the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) shows that global output increased in September this year. Most regions registered stable or slightly reduced output, except for EU 27, which increased by 2 million tons compared with August. - more

  OneSteel managing director Geoff Plummer on Monday forecast earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the steel market of up to $780 million in fiscal 2008. - more

  There’s really only one reason why we’re in a resources boom: Australia has iron ore – lots of it too – and China is buying it just as quickly as we’re digging it out of the ground. It’s the boom behind the boom. - more

  The negotiations with stainless steel mills in Japan on price of South African charge chrome for shipments in October - December quarter of 2007 became a marathon but has been at last settled by roll-over from that for the preceding quarter of July - September. - more

  ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steel maker, will raise prices for flat-steel products in North America and Europe due to higher raw material and energy costs.  - more

  The Indonesian unit of nickel producer Inco Ltd said on Tuesday it was still on track to produce 160-165 million pounds of nickel this year despite a strike by workers. - more

  Chinese newspaper Hainan Daily is reporting of a legal dispute between Wing Wang Stainless Steel Ltd and a shipping company over a shipment of 45,000 tons of laterite nickel ore. Apparently the carrier ran aground on November 9th, and dumped part of its ore cargo to free itself, and arrived shy about 9,600 tons. The ship has been seized at Yangpu Port by Haikou Maritime Court for further investigation. Article carries no other information.

  The head of the world's biggest mining group, BHP Billiton Ltd, pushed his case for a mega-merger with rival Rio Tinto on Tuesday in the face of growing opposition from big Asian customers. - more

  It digs for minerals in countries from Colombia to Kazakhstan, deals in exotic metals that keep planes airborne, and handles 3 percent of the world's oil. - more

  Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending November 17, 2007, domestic raw steel production was 2,054,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 86.1 percent. Production was 1,887,000 tons in the week ending November 17, 2006, while the capability utilization then was 81.5 percent. The current week production represents an 8.8 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending November 17, 2007 is down 3.5 percent from the previous week ending November 10, 2007 when production was 2,130,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 89.3 percent."

  Mining investors - Ernst & Young’s Mining EYE 3rd quarter 2007 - pdf here  

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus 330 tons = 42,324 tonnes (2.01% - 852 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 41,472 net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 266000-269000 RMB/t, minus 750

• Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $14.00/lb 3 month buyer - $14.22/lb (5.9% lower than 1/1/07)
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 90 to 10,780.
• LME nickel inventories - plus 126 tonnes into Rotterdam, Netherlands warehouse, plus 480 tonnes into Singapore warehouse
• Chinese and Japanese officials, as well as the International Iron and Steel Institute, all expressed serious concerns this weekend, about the possibility of a BHP-Tinto merger and the implications on the iron ore market, this union might have. Somebody pulled the drain plug in the base metal boat this morning, and instead of bailing water, occupants were jumping overboard. Base metals in general, and nickel specifically, had an ugly day. Initially the day appeared to be floundering, drifting down to around a $400/tonne loss, then back up to a little on the plus side, then back down, but not as bad, then back up, but not as high, then something spooked the market, and everyone was selling. From a daytime high of around $31,500, to at one point, below support of $30,000/tonne. Dollar was up, but only slightly against the Euro. Overnight markets in Shanghai saw nickel the only gainer there. LME inventories grew by another 1.6% overnight, with no outbound shipments reported. Wednesday is Third Wednesday, and with futures required to deliver on that day, we sometimes see dramatic moves right before, or on the day of. Last month it was on the Tuesday before, this month the fun may have come a day earlier. We stated last Tuesday when nickel was selling for $15.30/lb, that we could see nickel back in the low $14/lb range very soon. Obviously, we didn't see the dip becoming as extreme as it has. Now that we are trading at support, it will be interesting to watch. If support holds, we could see nickel sneaking back up. If it doesn't stick, then look for further declines. For the first day of the trading week, nickel closed at $13.70/lb ($30,200/tonne)
• LME markets are open all this week, and while the U.S. will be on Thanksgiving holiday break on Thursday, we will bring you a daily report each day.    
• Closing Metals Report - more
• Reuters - more
• AP - more

  Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones - by Andrea Hotter - (quote) "But while the lower prices are providing a good dip-buying opportunity, traders said there's a reluctance by market participants to build fresh longs, because the fundamentals aren't supportive enough."
  Copper fell more than 2 percent on Monday as China moved to curb its overheated economy, making investors fret over slowing demand by the world's top consumer. - more

  Following is a table showing China's base metals production in October and during January-October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. - more

  US Stainless steel steel exports were mostly flat in September, sliding .07% from August. The decline would have been worse, had it not been for exports of stainless steel 'oil country goods', which were up 60% over August, most notably, to Venezuela. Cold rolled stainless exports slumped, while hot rolled exports were up slightly. Overall, US exports of stainless steel items were 10.8% higher than October of 2006.  

  The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) has today issued a formal request that all relevant competition authorities review the proposed alliance between BHP and Rio Tinto. - more

  At least five people were killed when a gold and nickel mine tunnel collapsed Monday in the southern Philippines due to heavy rains, a regional relief official said. - more

  ThyssenKrupp AG said it is buying Apollo Metals Group from Murray International Holdings for an undisclosed sum. - more

  Morning Indicator (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indications at 7:55 am CST show 3 month nickel selling down by $.01/lb After being down as much as $450/tonne earlier, nickel appears to be on a rebound cycle as we publish the morning update. News out of Russia that a court has ordered striking dock workers back to work in St Petersburg, could mean more nickel shipments in the future. We posted numerous reports for the numbers crunchers among you over the weekend.  
• Bloomberg - more

  Haywood Securities Metals & Mining Weekly - pdf here

  In the weekly poll of analysts for SMM Specialist, 29 metals analysts responded. Of those, 16 (55%) felt the price of nickel would fall this week, 8 (27%) felt the price would hold, and the remaining 5 (17%) felt the price would rise.

  China's hefty appetite for raw materials may wane after next year's Olympics as social and inflationary pressures curb investment, London Metal Exchange director Phillip Crowson said on Monday. - more

  Eramet chairman Patrick Buffet said in an interview with Investir that he believes continental Europe needs to keep control of certain mining assets. - more

  The information that China may raise the export ingot steel tax to 25% from the current rate of 15% in early December 2007 has heated up the regional steel market, according to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA). - more

  Mr Wang Anjian senior analyst of Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, at recent China Mining 2007 said that global ore miners would risk losing USD 130 billion market share in China over the next decade, if they continue to seek for USD 75 per tonnes for ore shipment to China. - more

  President Robert Mugabe's government published a draft bill on Monday forcing mining firms to transfer majority shareholdings to local owners, including giving the Zimbabwe government a free 25 percent stake. - more

  Today's beginning nickel inventory

•   London Metal Exchange - plus  606 tons = 41,994 tonnes (1.64% - 690 tonnes cancelled warrants/ 41,304net stock level)
•   Shanghai Jinchuan nickel - 267500-269000 RMB/t, plus 1000