Headlines and leaders from today - (MarketWatch) U.S. home prices down 16.3%
in past year, Case-Shiller says (Reuters) The Conference Board's U.S. consumer
confidence index rose to 59.8 in September from 58.5 in August, the private
business research group reported on Tuesday. (CNN) Russian stock
exchanges suspended trading for several hours Tuesday after shares plummeted
soon after markets opened. (MarketWatch) Monday's market plunge may have
been the worst point drop ever for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but
in percentage terms it came nowhere close. It dropped 7% on Monday, or just
one-third as much as the 22.6% decline in the 1987 crash.(MarketWatch) The
U.S. dollar rallied against most major currencies Tuesday, as mounting woes
in the European banking sector battered the euro, while the greenback was
boosted by hopes that the proposed $700 billion rescue package for the U.S.
financial sector may be passed soon in some form.
After being told for nearly a week, that a bail-out was absolutely necessary
to keep the US out of depression-like conditions, markets were floored yesterday,
when Congress rejected the plan. The Dow took a dive and over $1.3 trillion
dollars in value was lost before dusk. World markets had seemingly already
traded the prior evening in anticipation of just such an event, and while
mostly down, did not take quite the hit Wall Street did in overnight trading.
The Dow is rebounding today, as bargain hunters snap up what they hope will
be good deals. The US dollar is trading nearly 2% higher against the
Euro today, as traders bet the US Congress has no choice but to pass something,
and more European banks show their own problems. Oil is trading higher, by
nearly 3-1/2%, after falling $10/barrel yesterday. Metals ended mixed today,
with precious trading lower, with base ended mostly lower. Indicator charts
show nickel traded in an approximate $600/tonne range today, but never showed
signs of breaking into the green. While Sucden's day old chart
(here) show the market
opened with very low RSI and SStoch reading's, implying the market is seriously
oversold, the dollar's gain and fundamentals weighed heavy, and took the
price of nickel lower. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.19/lb . Ed
Meir from MF Global, in his daily report, shows support for nickel at
$15,500/tonne ($7.03/lb), while Sucden's Nimit Khamar started the day with
$16,450/tonne and $15,800/tonne as his support limits. The $16,450 support
collapsed early in today's trading, and while the early trading drop in price
may have pierced the $15,800/tonne support line, it held for the rest of
the day. Nickel inventories gained again overnight, and have now gone over
the 56,000 tonne level. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, continues
to slump. The world is suffering from a plague of pessimistic fear,
and until stability and trust return, the coming days will probably prove
no different than the last. And thus ends September trading, with nickel
beginning this month's trading at $9.15/lb.
Reports
Commodity/Economic Comments
What's Brewing Between China, Vale, and the Baltic Dry Index -
more
When it comes to oil, gold and base metals, probably the best advice on offer
is not to do anything until we see how this turmoil plays out over the week.
- more
China's slowdown in economy takes toll on global prices of commodities -
more
Why American Banks Are Insolvent...Or Maybe Not -
more
India's iron ore exports are set to fall
by as much as a third in the year to March due to poor global demand, and
overseas sales will be at a lower average price, a senior mines ministry
official said on Tuesday. -
more
World market prices for ferrochromium
decreased. According to Metal Pages, average spot price of low-carbon
ferrochromium (content of chrome 65 %), and high-carbon ferrochromium (on
the basis of 60 % of chrome) in the market of Europe for the last month has
decreased. - more
Mining honeymoon may be over - Australia's
mining boom is looking vulnerable now the US Government's $US700 billion
financial rescue package has been struck down, analysts warn. -
more
China's Shagang Ends Bid For Brazil Ore
Co Namisa - Report - A Chinese consortium led by steelmaker Shagang has abandoned
its attempt to buy Brazilian iron ore miner Nacional Minerios, the Estado
de Sao Paulo newspaper reported Tuesday. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.15/lb lower
. Meals are quiet and mixed this morning,
while crude oil is trading about a buck a barrel higher. US dollar is trading
higher against the Euro. World markets reacted to yesterday's Congressional
rejection of the economic bail-out plan (chart
here), although European markets rebounded off session
lows. Many analysts expect the Dow to get a bounce today, after yesterday's
historic drop. Eyes remain on Washington DC, and it looks to potentially
be a quiet day with Congress unable to take any further definitive action
until Thursday at the earliest, according to press reports.
Nickel Drops to 2 1/2 Year Low on Outlook
for Slowing Demand - Nickel slumped to the lowest in two and a half years
on speculation slowing global economies will further cut demand, after the
U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion plan to rescue the
financial system. -
more
Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Market Report -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Monday, September 29th,
will be remembered as one of the more memorable days in the annals of trading
history, as we saw a record one-day point drop in the US stock market (wiping
out a staggering one trillion dollars), and the second sharpest decline in
crude oil prices. Base metals also took a severe beating, with copper sinking
to nine-month lows, although gold managed to finish higher, benefitting from
its status as a safe haven in times of upheaval. ... We may be seeing
signs of such a turnaround in today’s trading. Stock markets around
the world have reversed course and are now higher, with equities in the US
also called up at the time of this writing. The dollar is a tad stronger
this morning against the Euro, but not doing as much damage as it did yesterday
to commodities. Energy is up by about $1.5, while base metals are mixed.
Once again, all eyes will be on Washington, where talk now is that another
measure and/or vote could be taken up by tomorrow. Against this dismal backdrop,
the outlook for base metals does not look promising going forward. ... We
are currently at $16,200, down $200/MT. We sank to just above our support
level of $15,500 on an intraday basis earlier today (to $15,588), but have
since bounced back. Still, the complex looks weak, weighed own by a weakening
stainless sector. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Angel Commodities - The base metals pack is expected to trade on a volatile
note as the US Dollar is showing strength. Since the markets are currently
digesting the implications of the bailout, base metals could remain under
pressure. On the macroeconomic front, the US is expected to announce data
on Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence today. Consumer confidence is expected
to decline in times of financial turmoil and even Chicago PME is expected
to fall. Base metals may not receive cues from this data as overall economic
scenario is gloomy.
Economists say the next president will face a slow-growth economy teetering
toward recession, according to 527 buyers polled by Purchasing magazine.
-
more
Commodities prices were on Monday heading for their biggest quarterly drop
in more than 50 years on concerns that the US economic slowdown is hitting
China, the world’s engine of raw materials demand. -
more
Since nickel and stainless steel prices
have dropped a lot in Taiwan’s domestic market, Taiwan’s Ta Chen
International, Inc. said that they can only wish that the stainless steel
market will have the chance to revive in the first quarter of 2009. -
more
"Base metals prices (especially zinc and
nickel) have lost considerable ground in recent months and are expected to
move irregularly lower over the next several years alongside slower global
growth and new mine development," Scotiabank economist Patricia Mohr predicted
Monday. - more
The head of China's leading steel company
says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both "heading for a downward
slide", as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia's resource-dependent
economy from the widening global downturn. -
more
China's massive steel industry is expected to rebound next year as a feverish
pace of construction returns, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd executive director
Graeme Rowley says. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending September
27, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 1,986,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 83.2 percent. Production was 2,047,000 tons
in the week ending September 27, 2007, while the capability utilization then
was 86.5 percent. The current week production represents a 3.0 percent decrease
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
September 27, 2008 is down 2.1 percent from the previous week ending September
20, 2008 when production was 2,027,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 85.0 percent.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines and leaders - (Reuters) - World stocks set for biggest 1-day
loss in 20 yrs (see world chart
here) (Reuters) "The Commerce Department said consumer
spending was flat in August after barely edging up by a revised 0.1 percent
in July, a much weaker outcome than forecast by Wall Street economists surveyed
by Reuters who had expected spending to rise 0.2 percent." (Reuters) Central
banks around the world on Monday unveiled a coordinated effort to pump massive
amounts of cash into the global banking system in a bid to restore confidence
shaken by the credit crisis. (MarketWatch) Dow industrials down 300-plus
points (Globe and Mail) Bad credit card debt will hit in early 2009 (article
here) (MarketWatch)
Vote nears on federal bailout (Ours) Chicken Little Mauled in Exit Stampede
of Bulls
Except for gold, the metals complex sold lower today. Dollar was trading
about a percent higher at update time, while oil was selling under $100/
barrel and down around 7-1/2%. Indicator charts show nickel spent most of
the day in a quiet slide, until late when it dipped hard. Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at $7.44/lb
. The US House is debating the government
bail-out plan today and it is expected to pass later today, then it will
head to the Senate. The longer this plan takes to get thru Congress, the
more time the market has to think about its ramifications, and the more the
resistance grows. World markets appear to be gripped by fear, and in some
cases, out right panic, and some are now stating this bailout is a band-aid
for a severed artery. In other world news, China markets are closed this
week for a national holiday. Taiwan is cleaning up from a Typhoon that kept
their markets closed today. In the US, screen legend Paul Newman died at
83 and Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, on their fourth attempt,
got a rocket into orbit
(here). Pirates from Somali
picked the wrong boat to hijack over the weekend. Apparently they boarded
a ship carrying 33 Russian made T-72 tanks, destined to Kenya from Russia,
and have demanded a $20 million dollar ransom. The U.S. Navy has them encircled,
and Russia, reportedly, has a war ship on the way. Whoops!
Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate - "The global economy is looking ropey...In
the short term, with the month and quarter ending, investors are trying to
shore up balance sheets and given poor liquidity, cash is being favored"
Daniel Brebner, global head of commodities at UBS - "It's de-leveraging,
risk aversion, fund selling, economic growth concerns...All of these clearly
reflect a tremendous amount of negative sentiment, negative momentum."
(CNW) - After seven consecutive record highs, Scotiabank's Commodity Price
Index, which measures price trends in 32 of Canada's major exports, dropped
by 8.9 per cent month-over-month in August. However, the All Items Index
was still 33.9 per cent above a year ago and remains above a year earlier
in September, despite further slippage this month.
September 2008 Guinness Atkinson Asia Brief -
pdf here
Commodities prices were heading for their biggest quarterly drop in more
than 50 years on concerns that the US economic slowdown, is hitting China,
the world’s engine of raw materials demand. -
more
The Cuban nickel industry is still operating
at below capacity more than three weeks after taking a direct hit from Hurricane
Ike, according to local media from the nickel region of eastern Holguin province.
-
more
Finnish miner Talvivaara reiterated on
Monday that output at its Sotkamo nickel mine in northern Finland would begin
next month. -
more
VALE do Rio Doce, the world's biggest
iron ore producer, says it has almost no stockpiles of the steelmaking raw
material at its ports, signalling possible delays in shipments. -
more
The head of China's leading steel company
says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both "heading for a downward
slide", as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia's resource-dependent
economy from the widening global downturn. -
more
Indian iron ore exporters on Monday warned
that demand from steel mills in China had fallen sharply over the past month
and that Chinese buyers were defaulting on contracts with suppliers. -
more
Global Steel Price Down by 10% Since July
- In the US, underlying demand from the manufacturing and building
industries is weak. Customers started to hold back from placing orders in
August, expecting transaction prices to erode. -
more
Norilsk Nickel’s conflict between
its two biggest shareholders – Interros of Vladimir Potanin and Rusal
of Oleg Deripaska - continued to dominant headlines in Russia. -
more
Will the Ontario Government Strengthen
or Hold Back the Province’s Booming Mining Sector - by Gregory Reynolds
- more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.12/lb
lower. Another day, and another 1200+
tonne gain in LME warehouse inventories. BDI continues to slide, down another
242 points. Dollar is trading over a percent higher against the Euro, while
oil is trading nearly 5% lower. The metals complex is lower across the board.
Copper, Nickel Falls in London on
Speculation Growth Will Slow - Copper fell, wiping out this year's gain,
and nickel dropped for a third day on speculation economies worldwide will
slow and curb demand for industrial metals. -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices finished
sharply lower on Friday, as commodity markets hunkered down in face of the
relentless pressures generated by the credit crisis. Congress went into the
weekend feverishly working on the details of a bailout plan, and as of this
writing, the preliminary outlines of a package seem to be taking shape and
will likely be voted on later today. ... Much will be written about the plan
in the days ahead, but we will try to maintain our focus on the price impact
expected on both commodities and currencies. To start, we suspect that trading
will remain extremely volatile in the days ahead, but suggest that the dollar
should strengthen over the next few weeks, as the markets digest the implications
of the bailout. This may be a surprising conclusion, as on the surface, an
increase in one’s deficit should be construed as bearish for the currency.
However, since the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, the markets
will cut it some slack, especially under the current circumstances, where
without the US economy lubricated by free-flowing credit, many foreign economies
and credit markets themselves will seize up. The dollar’s upward move,
therefore, could come on the heels of a “relief rally” as opposed
to a sell-off that would be typically more justified under “normal”
circumstances. This is what seems to be happening so far today-- the dollar
is sharply higher against the Euro, and as a result is pounding a variety
of commodities, from energy to metals. Not helping matters much either, is
the fact that just as the US seems to be putting out its various fires, new
ones are beginning to test the Europeans (and the Euro). Thus far, the response
in Europe has been more "ad-hoc" in nature as opposed to the centralized
coordinated assault we are seeing in the US.... Although the jury is still
out as to whether the bailout package will work, there is much less debate
about the fact that the macro stats coming out of the US and the rest of
the world continue to look very bleak. That is why this week’s US numbers
are important, as they will give us a better idea of how quickly the US economy
is resuming its downward slide. ..We are currently at $16,750, down
$250/MT, and continue to trickle lower, as evidenced by our longer- term
weekly continuation charts. There should be some mild support around current
levels, ($16,700), but should this level break, we don’t see anything
below it until the $15,500 mark. (read Ed Meir's complete morning
base metals report
here)
The price of iron ores imported by China fell sharply, with the plunge of
ocean freight of iron ores on the global market, according to gz-metal.cn,
a South China metal market information website. The freight of iron ores
from Brazil to China dropped 22.422 USD/ton, or 32.6 percent from the beginning
of September, and the freight of those from Western Australia fell 11.41
USD/ton, or 43 percent.
Angel Commodities - "Nickel prices on LME continue to drift sideways within
a range of $16500 - $17500 levels Nickel, Earlier, stocks rose by 546 tonnes
to 54,342 tonnes, the highest since June 1999 amid stagnant demand from the
stainless steel sector."
(Dow Jones) The London Metal Exchange on Monday officially launched extended
prompt dates for its aluminum and copper contracts out to ten years, and
out to five years for its zinc, nickel and lead contracts. The exchange expects
the extension will draw more participants away from the over the counter
market, especially at a time of growing concerns over counterparty risk,
exchange officials said at a press briefing in London.
China's nickel consumption in 2008 is expected
to decline from last year due to falling production of stainless steel with
high nickel content, a senior official at an industry association said on
Friday. -
more
It is reported that the start of autumn witnessed price cuts by a list of
steelmakers, including Baosteel and Shagang the top domestic steel producer
and the largest private one followed by the traders' markdown in selling.
- more
The Goro Nickel company in New Caledonia
has signed a landmark agreement with the Kanak population and the activist
group, Rheebu Nuu. -
more
Price Of Domestic Ni-Based Stainless Scrap
Is Reduced By 30,000 / Ton In 2nd Half September = Stainless Steel Mills,
In Order To Cope With Sharp Fall Of Nickel Price -
more
Macquarie Bank has announced downgrades
to its metal forecasts, cutting copper's outlook by 8 per cent to $US3 a
pound because it expects a more severe downturn in US and European metals
demand than previously anticipated. Copper demand growth for next year may
slow to 2.3 per cent from 4 per cent expected earlier, leaving the market
with a 500,000 tonne surplus. -
more
Citigroup Inc. slashed its 2009 nickel price forecast by 40 percent as new
mines will open when demand from stainless steelmakers drop. -
more
Standard & Poor's says the credit outlook in the European mining and
steel sectors is becoming negative, "pressured by vulnerable prices, higher
costs, and tightening liquidity." -
more
Speaking in Shanghai at the Third Baosteel
Biennial Academic Conference, Clare Broadbent, Manager Life Cycle Assessment
of the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) issued an appeal that
governments need to work together with the steel industry to utilize life
cycle thinking as the most effective holistic approach that considers potential
impacts on the environment from all stages of manufacture, product use and
end-of-life. - more
The Bubble Metric Index (BMI) is a measure
of the distance between the fantasy of money and financial reality. -
more
Reports that China will reduce or end
iron ore imports from Brazil are nonsense, the chairman of the world's largest
mining company said Friday. -
more
Listed Widespread Portfolios’ largest
investment, Asian Mineral Resources, has suspended the development of its
Ban Phuc nickel mine in Vietnam. -
more
Tin and nickel company Stonehenge Metals has abandoned plans to acquire an
85 per cent stake in an Indonesian nickel project, deciding competing claims
to the project represented an unacceptable risk to shareholders.-
more
IG Metall - the most powerful union on
the Continent - has demanded a hefty 8 per cent pay increase for 3.6 million
workers in the metallurgy and electronics industries. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines and leaders from this morning - (MarketWatch) The U.S. economy
was not as strong in the second quarter as previously believed, held back
by weaker spending by consumers and businesses alike, the Commerce Department
reported Friday. (Reuters) Downward revisions to final U.S. second quarter
GDP indicate that a recession is a foregone conclusion and interest rate
cuts are imminent, says Ashraf Laidi, chief strategist at CMC Markets. "
(Bloomberg) The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment
declined to 70.3, lower than forecast, after a reading of 73.1 in early
September. The measure was still higher than the August reading of 63, reflecting
lower gasoline prices. The gauge of sentiment averaged 85.6 in 2007.
(MarketWatch) Washington Mutual customers withdrew $16.7 billion in cash
from the thrift in the past nine days, a huge outflow that led to the largest
bank failure in U.S. history, the institution's regulator said Friday. (RTT)
France's consumer confidence indicator improved to minus 44 in September
from minus 47 in July and minus 46 in June. (RTT) Friday, a preliminary report
showed the German inflation slowed in September. Earlier in the day, the
statistical office reported Germany's import price inflation remained stable
in August at its highest level in nearly eight years on higher energy prices.
Much like the rest of the week, the markets appear to be on hold, waiting
for something to develop in Washington, in reference to the $700 billion
proposed bail-out. While it looked like a deal was a done deal yesterday
afternoon, House Republican's squashed earlier agreements. President Bush
held a news conference this morning and assured the markets a deal "would
happen", and Wall Street is so far holding off making any major moves. Baltic
Dry index slipped under the 4000 mark today, reflecting a slowdown in raw
material shipments. We posted two article above with differing reasons why
the BDI is dropping so hard. Oil is trading around 3% lower, while the Dollar
is trading about 1/3% higher against the Euro. Sucden's day old chart reflects
the lack of activity with nickel in the last few days
(here), with indicator charts showing today's activity
of trading within a tight $300 tonne range, won't change the graph much.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day and week at
$7.71/lb , giving
back four of the five cents it went up yesterday, and ending four cents higher
than last Friday.
Frank Raiter says his former employer, Standard & Poor's, placed a "For
Sale'' sign on its reputation on March 20, 2001. That day, a member of an
S&P executive committee ordered him, the company's top mortgage official,
to grade a real estate investment he'd never reviewed. -
more
Wall Street's five biggest firms paid more than $3 billion in the last five
years to their top executives, while they presided over the packaging and
sale of loans that helped bring down the investment-banking system. -
more
(Metal First) Japan's largest stainless steel producer Nippon Steel &
Sumikin Stainless Steel Corp has called Samancor Chrome's demands for a 30%
increase in Q3 ferrochrome prices unacceptable and is exploring other suppliers.
(Q4 calendar year)
South Korean media reports August sales of stainless steel rose by 3.2% to
6.8058 million tons.
It’s the "teach a man to fish" theory of steelmaking: Buy iron ore from
someone else, and you have it for a day (actually, 365 days, since iron ore
is sold in year-long contracts), but buy your own mine, and you have iron
ore for life. -
more
A Workable, Private Bank Assistance Plan or Why President Bush Should Fire
Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson -
more
Roger Agnelli, the chief executive of
Brazilian miner Vale, said on Friday his company would be able to manage
the world financial crisis and push ahead with term price negotiations with
Chinese steel mills. -
more
Baosteel Group, China's top steel maker,
expects its crude steel output in 2008 to rise nearly 5 percent to 30 million
tonnes, the group's chairman Xu Lejiang said on Friday. -
more
Mechel has launched in Kazakhstan
one of the world’s largest chromium ore facilities worth USD 250 mn
and intends to build a ferrochrome plant there worth up to USD 800 mn. -
more
Outokumpu of Finland, a global leader in
stainless steel, is to set up a high-tech service centre near Mumbai - billed
as the first of its kind in India. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.06/lb
higher. Marketwatch 's main headline
this morning "Bears sharpen their claws". Congress' inability to reach, what
appeared for most of the day, to be an inevitable agreement yesterday, put
many traders in an foul mood, and when news that Washington Mutual had
been seized by U.S. regulators later that evening, in what will be the U.S.
largest-ever bank failure, the mood went from foul to down-right ugly. World
markets are mostly down (chart
here). Dollar is a tad higher, oil is trading 2% lower,
and metals are mixed. With the news of a BHP smelter firing back up, and
news that indonesia plans to increase nickel production, nickel inventories
stored in LME warehouses grew by more than 400 tonnes for the fourth day
in a row. The Baltic Dry Index continues to fall, down another 417 points
today.
China's Nickel Demand Falls on Stainless
Steel Output - China's stainless steel producers, the largest in the
world, will buy less nickel this year as demand for their products is weak,
an industry official said. -
more
China's crude steel output in 2008 may fall below 500 million tons dragged
down by the domestic demand decline, Xu Lejiang, president of Baosteel Group
Corp said last week. -
more
Nickel Falls After BHP Reopens Australian
Smelter; Copper Drops - Nickel fell for a second day in London after BHP
Billiton Ltd. reopened its Australian nickel smelter, adding to increasing
supplies. -
more
BHP has restarted operations at the Kalgoorlie nickel smelter in Western
Australia after a major rebuild. -
more
Reports
AIST Industry Stats - World Crude Steel Production as of July 2008 (in thousand
metric tons) - pdf here
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - " Although equity and oil markets
were up sharply yesterday in anticipation of an apparently imminent agreement
on a proposed $700 billion bailout deal, metals were not swept up by their
push higher. Perhaps the dismal macro numbers coming out of the US took the
complex aback. In this regard, August durable goods orders-- after notching
up three months of increases-- dropped by 4.5% in the latest month, much
more than expected. On the housing side, the pace of new August home sales
fell yet again, this time to its lowest level in 17 years. The sales number
was down 11.5% from July levels, and also came in well below the consensus
forecast. Surprisingly, the inventory of unsold home actually increased despite
a 5.5% decline in median home prices. Stats on the labor front showed that
weekly initial claims ending Sept. 20th jumped 32,000 to 493, 000, also well
above the consensus. One gets the sense that economic growth is not only
turning sharply lower in the US, but that is spreading globally as well,
with the alarmingly tight credit conditions providing little relief. This
is not necessarily a backdrop where metals -- or most other commodities--
can thrive in. ... The big news today, of course, is that yesterday’s
imminent bailout deal itself seems to be “bailing out”, as apparently,
there has been some last-minute opposition to the proposed terms by some
Republican lawmakers. In response, the mood in the financial markets has
darkened again, with stock futures giving up most of yesterday's gains, as
has oil. Metals are also down slightly in sympathy, as markets wait for
Washington to cobble together a package. (Also unknown at this stage, is
if we are going to have a presidential debate tonight). ... We are currently
at $17,118, up $43/MT, and quiet. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base
metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) Base metal prices lack direction but are consolidating around
their lower levels, said Barclays Capital analyst Gayle Berry. "People are
uncertain, so they are sitting on their hands," Berry said, adding metals
could have a "knee jerk" reaction higher if a plan is approved, but given
the deteriorating global macro-growth prospects, metals will have a hard
time gaining amid lower consumption rates.
The recent financial crisis in the US has hit sentiments in the commodity
markets with open interest reducing drastically in the last few months, said
Mr Paul Horsnell, Managing Director-Head (Commodities), Barclays Capital,
the third largest commodity player after Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
-
more
Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed until 6th of October for the National
holidays.
(Reuters) "It will be a nervous weekend while people are waiting to see how
the bailout plan goes," said Nick Moore, commodities strategist at RBS. "Metals
are moving in hand with equities, so if we get stabilisation and the market
returns to something like a normality, that will be good news."
It is reported that China steel product export to different countries during
January to August 2008 total 41,793,344 tonnes with Italy at the top. -
more
The case for the resource believers is reinforced constantly through the
bullish sentiment from the media, stockbrokers and resource company executives.
- more
Macquarie has cut its commodity price forecasts due to financial problems
and a slackening of Chinese demand. -
more
Commodities, set for the biggest quarterly loss in at least five decades,
may rebound on demand for food and industrial materials from nations including
India and China, according to Barclays Capital. -
more
The president director of PT Aneka
Tambang (Antam), Alwinsyah Loebis, said here on Thursday the company planned
to increase its nickel production from 17,000 tons to 18,000 tons to anticipate
a drop in the sale value as a result of declining prices. -
more
Alloy surcharges on European flat rolled
stainless steel will rise for austenitic grades in October for the first
time in months, figures so far announced indicate. -
more
China has been buying into Australia's
resource-rich projects in an ad hoc manner but the nation is at fault for
not setting firm rules to address the aggressive push for control of sought-after
commodities. -
more
China will not import iron ore from
Brazil-based Vale in the short term, a finance newspaper reported today.
-
more
International steel markets seem to
be stable for now and the steel prices have logically declined from the abnormal
highs, said Zaigham Rizvi, Director Projects, Tuwairqi Steel Mills Limited
. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines - (MarketWatch) New orders for U.S.-made capital goods decreased
in August by the largest amount since the beginning of the year, signaling
that businesses may be getting more cautious in their outlook. (MarketWatch)
U.S. weekly jobless claims shot to their highest level in seven years in
the latest week, the Labor Department said Thursday, as people in the
hurricane-hit states of Louisiana and Texas filed for benefits. (Reuters)
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes in August fell to its lowest point
in more than 17 years while prices hit four-year lows, a government report
on Thursday showed, in a sign of continued weakness in the housing sector.
The dollar and oil reversed course since this morning's report. The dollar
is now trading higher against the Euro by nearly the same percentage it was
down in our morning update. Oil is trading higher, by nearly 2-1/2%. Metals
were, for the most part, quiet, with precious trading lower, and base trading
slightly higher. Except for nickel. Indicator charts show nickel traded in
an approximate $300/tonne range, and was erratic in morning trading, while
afternoon trading was more subdued. Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended the day a nickel lower than yesterday, at
$7.75/lb . Sucden's
chart shows nickel activity thru yesterday
(here). Update on SW Pacific Tropical Storm's
(here).
Wall Street is up this morning in anticipation of passage of the $700 billion
dollar bail-out, never mind the discouraging economic news released today.
CNN just reported that law-makers from both the House and Senate have reached
an agreement and are heading to Paulson's office. The world watches and waits,
and in the mean time, the economy continues to soften. With today's news
that unemployment has reached a 7 year high, do not let your company offer
you a "promotion" to CEO of their new India branch.
(article here)
Commodity/Economic Comments
Commodities, set for the biggest quarterly loss in at least five decades,
may rebound on demand for food and industrial materials from nations including
India and China, according to Barclays Capital. -
more
Fundamentals Driving Commodity Prices, Not Speculation -
more
ThyssenKrupp VDM opens service center in China: Stainless group expands its
range in Guangzhou to include nickel alloys -
more
The annual report that BHP Billiton
sent to shareholders this week is dripping with dollars, crowded with cash,
a towering edifice of financial strength, and so on and so forth. But the
nickel market is sliding to a point that threatens to generate a blot on
the next balance sheet. -
more
Inco’s Sudbury Nickel Mines were
Critical During World War Two (Part 1 of 7) by Stan Sudol -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around
$.08/lb
lower. Indicator charts show nickel is trading within a slim price band,
but very choppy so far today. Rest of the metals complex is mixed, but trading
appears to be light again, as the world awaits a U.S. Congressional decision.
In our opinion, the administration has left Congress with little option but
to pass something, as testimony and leaks over the last few days, have made
the economic situation look bleak. America's Joe Six-pack is confused, nervous,
and angry. He doesn't understand why Main Street is being asked to bail out
Wall Street, nervous what might happen either way, and mad the whole mess
was allowed to happen. Dollar is trading by 1/2% lower this morning
against the Euro, while crude oil is also down. BDI continues to fall, and
nickel inventories continue to rise.
Nickel Decreases as Stockpiles Climb
to 9-Year High; Tin Gains - Nickel fell on the London Metal Exchange as
stockpiles at a nine-year high heightened speculation that demand isn't strong
enough to erode a global glut. Tin rose. -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Copper prices fell slightly
yesterday, (off by $75 on the day) although the rest of the metals held up
somewhat better. However, market attention seems to be elsewhere, with investors
in a state of heightened anticipation as they wait for the final details
of the bailout bill currently snaking its way through Congress. ...
Until the bailout proposal becomes law, investors will remain reluctant to
take big positions in a number of commodity complexes. The dollar, for one,
has been particularly directionless over the past 24 hours, as it stalls
around the 1.4650-1.4700 level against the Euro. Its next big move -- either
towards or away from the 1.50 level --will be critical in setting the short-term
trend in a number of commodity complexes. LME metals are lower today despite
a slightly stronger dollar... We are currently at $17,100, down $100/MT,
and quiet. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Bogle's Bets: Pros Offer Advice on Investing Now -
more
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Joint Economic Committee Wednesday,
in reference to the possibility of Congress not approving the Paulson $700
billion dollar plan - "This is not an inconvenience. What that is going to
do, is effect spending and economic activity and it will cause the economy
as a whole to decline and be much weaker than it otherwise would be. It will
affect the unemployment rate. It will affect job creation. It will affect
real incomes. It will affect everyone's standard of living. It is much more
than car loans. It is really about the overall performance of the U.S. economy,
perhaps over a period of years."
Even MINExpo is dominated by one question: will the current US economy meltdown
affect mining? - more
The six-year surge in iron ore prices may come to a dramatic slowdown in
2009 if steelmakers continue to reduce output in a slowing world economy
and the global credit crisis. -
more
(Ferro Alloy) At present, ferrochrome market is still in the doldrums. For
prices still remains low , many people take a wait-and-see attitude to the
market. The market is not clear enough, with big price gap. A European trader
said that because steel plants still have a large number of stocks and have
a weak demand for the high-carbon ferrochrome.
(Recycling International) Having exceeded US$ 50 000 per tonne in the first
half of 2007, nickel prices have subsequently endured a rocky ride. However,
recent times have produced a return above US$ 20 000 per tonne. On September
1, Rotterdam prices for 304 stainless steel scrap have risen to US$ 2280
per tonne, while 316 scrap has upped to US$ 3400. Both Ferritic 430 scrap
(17% chromium) 409 scrap (13% chromium)were stable at US$ 750 and US$ 650
per tonne respectively.
Riding Out the Storm -- Lawrence Roulston, September 23, 2008 Investments
are down across the board and around the world, but the worst damage was
inflicted on commodities. -
more
In line with the general trend on the steel market, Mechel has reduced domestic
prices for hot-rolled steel. -
more
Sino-Platinum Metals Co., a Chinese maker
of precious metals, will shut a nickel unit for three months for maintenance
after prices plunged and costs rose. The unit, Yuanjiang Nickel Co.,
will be closed from Oct. 1, reducing concentrate and metal output, the Kunming,
Yunnan province-based company said in a statement to the Shanghai stock exchange,
without giving details of the affected production.-
more
Eti Krom / Turkey Reduces Price Of Chrome
Ore For Shipments In Q4 / 08 = Eti Krom Views As Fundamentals For Chrome
Will Still Maintain Firm Tone -
more
The Bubble Metric Index (BMI) is a measure
of the distance between the fantasy of money and financial reality. In the
past month, it has been weighing unusually heavily on the oligarchs who own
pieces of Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s largest mining company. -
more
It is anticipated that China was initially
expected to increase the production of crude stainless steel in 2008 by 20%
from that in 2007, but this expansion of the production will retreat to a
considerable extent. -
more
China Mining reported that affected by sluggish market demand for iron ore
and rapid increase in supply, China's iron ore market as plunged into a sluggish
state of price drop and bleak transaction. -
more
All three Cuban nickel plants were back
in operation, state-run radio reported on Thursday, just short of three weeks
after taking a direct hit from Hurricane Ike. -
more
Brazil's mining giant Vale will stick
to demands for higher prices for the iron ore it exports to China, its CEO
Roger Agnelli told local media, adding many firms already had accepted the
price rise. -
more
Cia. Vale do Rio Doce Chief Executive Officer Roger Agnelli said some Chinese
steelmakers already have accepted an increase in the price of iron-ore, Epoca
reported. - more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
(Reuters) Prices of existing homes in the United States suffered a record
drop in August while the sales pace slowed and the overstock of homes shrank,
the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. (Reuters) The pace
of existing home sales in the United States fell in August to a 4.91 million-unit
annual rate while home prices suffered a record drop and the overstock of
homes shrank, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on
Wednesday.(FX Traders) Data released in the U.S. today saw the Richmond
Fed’s September manufacturing index worsen to -18 from -16 in August
.... In eurozone news, the EMU-15 PMI survey fell to 47.0 in September from
48.2 in August, its lowest reading since November 2001. (RTT News) The German
business confidence deteriorated to a three year low in September as firms
were dissatisfied with their current business situation, results of a survey
revealed. A monthly survey from the Munich-based Ifo research institute showed
that the business sentiment fell for the fourth straight month to 92.9 in
September from 94.8 in August. The indicator stood below the expected reading
of 94.1 and was the lowest since May 2005.
Markets appear to be in a wait-and-see attitude, wondering when and if the
bailout will make it thru the US Congress, and what the implications might
be, either way. At update time, the Dow was dipping up and down over its
starting point, with no major moves being made either way. Oil was trading
even, while the Dollar was trading at only .14% higher against the Euro.
Metals, both precious and base, were also subdued, trading mixed with no
major moves. Indicator charts show three month nickel traded in about a
$300/tonne range, and Dow Jones reports nickel ended the days trading at
$7.80/lb , two
pennies higher than yesterday's close. In other news, the Philippines, Taiwan
and China are eyeing a Tropical Storm and a Tropical Depression that appear
to be playing cat and mouse with each other as they approach landfall (map
here).
And if this whole economic mess has your panties in a bunch, Hanes announced
today, it was closing 9 plants and laying off 8,100 workers, as it shifts
underwear production to China.
Tangshan Stainless Co., Ltd. stainless steel smelting works began operation
in Tangshan City in Hebei Province, China yesterday. The $2 billion yuan
project has a 600,000 tons of stainless steel capacity.
(Dow Jones) LME nickel inventories have risen to their highest in
11 years at 53,358 tons, with most of the recent deliveries occurring in
European LME warehouses, says Barclays Capital.
(Scotia) In August, China imported 497,323 tonnes of low-grade nickel
ore, down 6.3% MOM and 70.76% YOY. This represents the first time China’s
nickel ore imports are below half a million tonnes since December 2006. We
note that low-grade nickel ore inventory remained very lofty at Chinese ports,
at over 8 million tonnes.
(Metal First) In August 2008, China imported 6,748 mt of unwrought
nickel, down 4.4% from 7,058 mt imported in August 2007, and also down 30.5%
from the 9,703 mt imported in July 2008. Total unwrought nickel imported
in the first eight months was 82,050 mt, up 17.9% from 69,586 mt imported
a year earlier.... Total moly powder exported in the eight-month period was
5.29 million kg, up significantly from the 2.89 million kg exported in
January-August 2007. Total imports in the first eight months of 2008 were
171,179 kg, which was a 30% rise from the 131,632 kg imported a year ago.
(Scotia China Update) As our readers go through the rest of this report,
we would not be surprised to hear some investors becoming even more bearish
for the raw materials and energy sectors from a China perspective, and for
very good reasons. ... With so much bearish developments, why do we still
maintain our bullish view for the global raw materials and energy sectors
from a China perspective? Two reasons. (1) First, we are trying to be forward
looking. We expect the market in China to tighten up for key commodities
like copper and steel in Q4/08, as construction activities should turn up
seasonally after the summer lull. And the strength of the upcoming seasonality
should be helped by the government’s more pro-growth policies, the potential
stimulation plan, the 5% increase in new loan quota, and the rebuilding efforts
of the Sichuan earthquake region. All of these positive factors have yet
to play out, but they should, in our opinion. (2) Second, everything has
a price tag. After the market selloff, a lot of the slowdown risks have already
been priced into the global raw materials and energy sectors. As we wrote
at the beginning of this section, the market expectation for the Chinese
economy, as indicated by the Chinese yuan NDF markets, is a lot more pessimistic
than our own judgment. Allow us to repeat some of our comments from last
week. We are a secular bull, a cyclical bear, and a seasonal bull for both
China’s demands for key commodities and the global commodities-related
sectors. In our opinion, the bullish secular trend, driven by the ongoing
urbanization process, should put higher floor prices for key commodities.
After the recent market selloff, the commodities sectors should now find
solid support from the underlying secular trends. And the stronger seasonality
going into Q4/08 should facilitate a tradable rally for quick money investors."
(Dow Jones) Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) Chief Executive Tom Albanese Wednesday said
the outlook for commodities remained strong despite financial market turmoil.
"The strong outlook for commodity markets has not fundamentally changed,"
Albanese said in a presentation at a Credit Suisse metals and mining conference
in London.... "Reduced availability of finance will add to supply-side
constraints in commodity markets," Albanese said.
Shock and awe - Commentary: Five things you need to know about our current
state of affairs -
more
Since July, commodity bulls have been trampled during the worst credit crisis
in history. The entire complex has gone from being extremely overbought in
June to heavily oversold in late September. -
more
Commodity traders and hedgers are in a fix over volatility in commodities,
particularly in precious metals and grains. -
more
Even if the Bush administration's $700 billion bailout works, the United
States still faces the longest and most severe economic stretch since the
Great Depression, according to one economist.-
more
Economist see nickel demand improving
as year ends - Flagging nickel demand should pick up slightly by the end
of 2008, senior economist David Wilson of producer Norilsk Nickel tells a
recent metals conference in London sponsored by consultancy GFMS Ltd. But,
he admits this probably won’t force a rebound in nickel’s price
since the demand bump will be marginal against this year’s global production
increases. -
more
Data released recently, in particular
indicators of leading significance, indicate that the country’s economic
growth is declining. -
more
It is reported that at present, domestic FeMo market weakens continuously
and rare deals are closed, which caused sliding FeMo quotations in the Northeast.
- more
China’s Slumping Steel Industry Angry
over Vale's “Extortion” - In answer to the boycott staged against
its price hike by Chinese steelmakers, Brazilian iron ore miner Vale has
employed its trump card- refusing to provide ore. -
more
Seven mining projects are expected
to start production next year despite likely delays in the infusion of additional
investments into some of these ventures because of the global financial crisis,
according to Mines and Geosciences Bureau data. -
more
Scientists from around the world have
joined forces in what they call a "Molybdenum Offensive," to work out strategies
by the end of this year that will boost demand for the resilient metal. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.03/lb
lower. Besides nickel, the other base
metals are even or slightly higher this morning. Dollar is trading slightly
lower against the Euro, oil is higher before inventories are announced. BDI
falls again, and nickel stored in LME warehouses records another large gain.
Most world equity markets are trading higher today (chart
here).
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "The dollar strengthened
on the day, and was said to be a factor in the decline, but we suspect that
the bulk of the selloff was attributable to the uncertainty caused by the
bailout proposal now weaving its way through Congress. Listening to Treasury
Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke testifying before the Senate
Banking committee yesterday, we were astounded by the number of objections
- if not outright opposition - to the package, suggesting that approval for
such a measure will likely drag out for many more days, if not weeks. What
this could mean for commodity markets in general and for metals, in particular,
remains to be seen. On the one hand, further wrangling could result in more
weakness in the equity markets, and unhinge the commodity markets, just as
we saw last week. On the other hand, a delay could also weaken the dollar,
and send sidelined money towards hard-asset inflation hedges, like metals.
Given the choice, we suspect the latter scenario will prevail, i.e., the
ongoing back-and-forth takes its toll on the dollar, which in turn, should
be constructive for commodities. Of course, when the bailout is confirmed,
the dollar could strengthen markedly, and we could see a broad-based selloff
in the complex. The next week or so, will therefore be very whippy. There
are simply too many balls in the air--each with a different bias on prices
-- to allow participants a clearer read on where prices are heading. In such
a treacherous environment, it may be best to opt for the sidelines, as these
types of markets generate trading losses and form the basis for poor hedging
decisions. .. LME metals are higher today, as the dollar remains unchanged
against the Euro, and hovering just under 1.4700. ... We are currently at
$16,950, down $250/MT, and fairly quiet."(read Ed Meir's complete morning
base metals report
here)
Commodity prices will stay ``stronger for longer'' as financing becomes a
real constraint on supply growth because of the global credit turmoil, Goldman
Sachs JBWere Pty said. -
more
(Yieh Corp) It is reported that Korea’s Hyundai Steel and BNG Steel
have cut stainless steel HR coil purchasing quantity by a large range.
With Korea’s current economic weakness and the falling nickel
price, stainless steel sales have been greatly reduced. Besides, after BNG
Steel had restarted its stainless steel CR mill on September 19. Hyundai
stopped purchasing from Posco in June, and BNG Steel is facing the same
situation. The reasons for stopping purchasing include poor sales and increasing
stocks.
(Steel Guru) It is reported that the first stage construction of the 0.5
million tonnes per year alloy steel project for Anhui Jinzhai-based Jinan
Stainless Steel Casting Co has recently completed after 10 months strenuous
working.
(Steel Guru) It is reported that Nickel futures tumbled sharply for its biggest
weekly fall in almost 4 years in the trades on MCX and LME. On MCX, the benchmark
September expiry contract Nickel for delivery in 3 months plummeted by INR
73 kilogram to INR 742 kilogram as against INR 845 per kilogram on September
15th 2008 the start of the week.
LCH Clearnet, which clears trades for the London Metal Exchange, has cut
margins for nickel today. -
more
MSCI Steel, Aluminum Shipments Continue to Lag in 2008 -
more
China's unwrought nickel exports in August
stood at 363 mt, which was a sharp fall of 75.2% from a year ago, and a 52.7%
decrease compared with the 767 mt exported in July, the latest figures from
the General Administration of Customs of China showed. -
more
Oversupply Of Nickel In China Is Caused
By Decreased Production Of Stainless Steel = Jinchuan Nickel Turns To Reduce
Nickel Production And To Increase Copper Production -
more
China's crude steel production in August
increased 1.3% year on year to reach 42.57 million mt, according to latest
figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Crude steel output
for the first eight months of the year totaled 351.09 million mt, up 8.3%
from a year ago. -
more
India's largest integrated stainless steel
producer Jindal Stainless on Wednesday said it has received approval from
the Registrar of Companies to rename the company as JSL Ltd. -
more
A second Cuban nickel plant opened on Tuesday
in Moa Holguin, state-run radio reported, as the country's most important
export industry works to resume full production after taking a direct hit
from Hurricane Ike two weeks ago. -
more
Russian metals producer Mechel said late
Monday that it has commissioned a new mining and processing plant at the
Voskhod chrome ore deposit of Kazakhstan. -
more
Russian tycoons Vladimir Potanin and Mikhail
Prokhorov are close to a final asset split deal involving stakes in metals
giant Norilsk Nickel and gold miner Polyu, Kommersant business daily reported
on Wednesday. - more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to Senate Banking Committee hearing
this morning - "Action by the Congress is urgently required to stabilize
the situation and avert what could otherwise be very serious consequences
for our financial markets and for our economy. Global financial markets remain
under extraordinary stress..... If financial conditions fail to improve for
a protracted period, the implications for the broader economy could be quite
adverse." In the same hearing, Christopher Dodd, chairman of the U.S. Senate
Banking Committee, stated "This proposal is stunning and unprecedented in
its scope and lack of detail." MarketWatch headline posted after the
hearings were underway "The biggest financial bailout in American history
hit a speed bump Tuesday on Capitol Hill as members of the Senate began to
balk at quick action to pass the measure, saying such a massive proposal
requires more careful discussion and consideration." In response, the Dow
has dipped into the red, after spending all morning in a paused green mode.
The Bernanke Bounce has not materialized today - at least so far. The State
Street Investor Confidence Index slipped more than 2 points in September
to 70.7, one of its lowest levels in 10 years of data, while investor confidence
was weakest in Asia, but stronger in Europe. In other news, Reuters reports
"Over the 12 months ending in July, U.S. home prices fell 5.3 percent, according
to the seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index from the Office of Federal
Housing Enterprise Oversight." Bloomberg reported "The dollar rose against
the euro for the first time in five days on bets the greenback's biggest
decline since January 2001 yesterday was too big to sustain.", while AFP
reported "Crude oil trades lower after biggest one-day gain". Metals traded
lower today, nearly across the board, with nickel taken back by a 700+ tonne
gain overnight in inventories. Sucden's day old chart shows the minor bounce
nickel witnessed yesterday, which ended today
(here). Indicator charts show a big drop in nickel prices
in the early morning session, a hard fought climb, followed by another late
retreat. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.78/lb .
(Dow Jones) Traders said with market players uncertain over the bailout package's
final form, the metals market will continue to monitor how financial markets
react to the package's progress through Congress. "There are so many outside
influences, and pretty far down that list is the demand for metals," said
a London-based broker.
China imported 720,000 tons of chromium ore valued at 313.257 million US
dollars in July 2008. The import in January-July reached 4,200,000 tons valued
at 1,554.392 million US dollars, up 24.9 percent and 104.1 percent respectively
year on year
(Financial Times) Mr Moon (Moon Jung-up at Daishin Securities) predicted
that the downward trend is not likely to be reversed until the end of first
quarter next year, despite output cuts by global steelmakers.
Spend Matters author Jason Busch - "I live in a country that's full of hypocrisy.
A capitalist society that socialized more for-profit institutions in a single
week than Lenin did over his entire reign...."
In recent years, Chinese GDP maintains
a 10% increase rate. The rapid economic growth pushes forward the construction
of the infrastructure such as subway, road, and road guardrail, as well as
activates the consumption market, which brings a great prosper to our stainless
market. - more
Why stainless steel prices are
NOT dropping as fast as nickel - in simple terms. The easiest way is to do
a comparison. Here is our unscientific formula. 304 Stainless Steel contains
a minimum of 18% chrome, 8% nickel, and around 70% iron. It takes two tons
of iron ore to make a ton of iron. Thus, in 100 pounds of 304 stainless steel,
we have at least 8 pounds of nickel, 18 pounds of chrome, and around 140
pounds of iron ore. Using this formula, we can determine that a combination
of these three items would have cost a total of $78.70 in January 2006 when
nickel was $6.60/lb, chrome was $.5388/lb, and iron ore was $255/GT. In January
of this year, nickel was $12.56/lb, chrome at $1.75/lb, and iron was $420/GT.
The cost of these three items in 100 lbs of 304 would have run $158.65. Thus
in two years, the material cost of these three items had nearly doubled.
In August, the most recent month we have monthly averages of the ingredients
to work with, nickel was running $8.59/lb X 8, chrome was at $2.2463 X 18,
and iron ore was running $860/GT div 2204.6 X 140, giving us a total of
$163.78... a total higher than that of January this year. Although nickel
has dropped this year, from January's average of $12.56/lb to August's $8.59/lb,
the increase in iron ore and chrome have more than offset. Obviously this
is a very crude formula. And it explains why we follow iron ore, ferrochrome,
and molybdenum news closely.
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.24/lb
lower. Dollar is higher, oil
is lower, and metals are mostly trading in the red. LME nickel inventory's
record a huge gain overnight.
AIIS September 2008 Steel Import Market Survey -
here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Copper rallied to two-week highs
yesterday, pulling the rest of the sector up along with it, with the advance
being spurred mainly by a surge in energy prices and the severe decline in
the US dollar. The greenback slumped to almost 1.48 against the Euro yesterday,
as investors fretted over the details of a planned $700 billion U.S. bailout
-- i.e., whether the money earmarked will be enough, what riders will be
attached to the bill, and perhaps most importantly, will various banks be
able to sustain capital erosion once government-sponsored “settlement
prices” are negotiated for some of the more trickier mortgage instruments.
These are all legitimate concerns, but we have to suspect that if the markets
get a sense that Congress is close to “sealing a deal”, we could
see a substantial reversal in the dollar and a subsequent easing in metal
prices. Whether the dollar’s gains will last given the enormous deficits
that are being generated, remains an open equation, but for now, the path
of least resistance in commodities remains higher still. Metals are lower
at the time of this writing, as the dollar has strengthened slightly from
yesterday’s 1.48 level against the Euro, and is now at 1.4750. Oil prices
are also lower after yesterday’s record one-day gain on the expiring
October contract. ... We are currently at $17,425, down $50/MT, and
fairly quiet." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Gretchen Morgenson writes the MarketWatch column for the Sunday New York
Times. Interview with Bill Moyers - "The ugly thing about this is this
is privatizing gains and socializing losses. So when things are going well,
the managements make out, the shareholders make out, the counterparties are
fine. All the private sector people do well. But when something goes wrong,
when decisions are made that turn out to be bad decisions, the U.S. taxpayer
has to take on the problem. And there's something very wrong about that.
Because all of those people that made all that money are running off here
into the distance with the money, carrying it in their bags. And the United
States taxpayer is on the hook." - New York Times business and financial
columnists Gretchen Morgenson and Floyd Norris discuss who wins and who loses
in the financial turmoil. -
here
(Interfax) China's refined lead, zinc, nickel and tin exports all fall in
first eight months
(China Mining) A possible growth slowdown is hanging over China's iron and
steel industry as surging production costs and banks grudging credit support
squeeze steel makers' profitability, said Xu Lejiang, President of Baosteel
Group Corporation. At a recent merger and acquisition forum, Xu said that
previously demands-driven growth has fainted out of sight in China and steel
producers are resorting to restructuring and acquisition to counter the shrinking
domestic demands and volatile global economy. Steel output in August increased
only 1.5 percent year on year while its demands sank six percent as against
a 8.9 percent rise in July.
Bangkok Post reported that Thainox Stainless
Steel Plc expects to revise down its sales volume target this year to 180,000
tonnes as clients are reluctant to place orders due to volatile stainless
steel prices. - more
A five-year cooperation agreement has
been signed by the Murmansk Sea Trade Port and mining and metallurgy major
Norilsk Nickel. -
more
Russia's Mechel plans to build a
ferroalloy smelter in Kazakhstan, capable of producing 240,000-250,000 tpa
of ferrochrome at a cost of $500 million-$800 million by 2012-2013, Alexei
Ivanushkin, the general director of Mechel Ferroalloys, told reporters. -
more
Albidon Ltd., an Australian metals
explorer, rose the most in almost four years in London trading after reporting
a gain on the closure of its nickel hedge book and shipping the first
nickel-concentrate from its Munali mine. -
more
China's crude steel production in August
increased 1.3% year on year to reach 42.57 million mt, according to latest
figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending September
20, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,027,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 85.0 percent. Production was 2,047,000 tons
in the week ending September 20, 2007, while the capability utilization then
was 86.5 percent. The current week production represents a 1.0 percent decrease
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
September 20, 2008 is down 1.4 percent from the previous week ending September
13, 2008 when production was 2,055,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 86.1 percent.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Monday, September 22 (Fall begins in Northern
Hemisphere)
Headlines and first lines - (AP) It was the end of an era on Wall Street
as the Federal Reserve granted permission for the last two major investment
banks — Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — to become bank holding
companies in order to stay in business. (MarketWatch) The Fed's move is the
latest milestone in a jaw-dropping couple of weeks for Wall Street and American
business. (MarketWatch) Stocks traded lower on Monday, as the market
mulled available details on a $700 billion government plan to take the bad
assets off of ailing financial firms' balance sheets to try and stem the
year-long credit crisis. (Thomson) Spot gold above $900 as investors flee
to gold - U.S. crude futures up more than $5 on dollar slide - US Dollar
Dives As Improvement in Investor Confidence Quickly Fades. The last three
headlines from Thomson tell the story for commodities today. Metals were
solidly higher, as the dollar slumped against the Euro(down nearly 2% at
update), and oil raced higher (over 6% at update). Indicator charts show
nickel was bullish throughout the day, with only one momentary correction,
and ended during an upward curve. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month
nickel ended the day at $7.92/lb
.
Did you miss the NY Times headline Friday? "Congressional Leaders Stunned
by Warnings" Here is a quote from the article "As Senator Christopher J.
Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and Chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban
Affairs Committee, put it Friday morning on the ABC program “Good Morning
America,” the congressional leaders were told “that we’re
literally maybe days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system,
with all the implications here at home and globally.” -
more Let's
see. "Another" $700 billion bailout to save us from a meltdown, i.e 'a weapon
of mass destruction', divided by 305,225,747 population = $2,293 for every
American man, woman and child. The U.S. 'current debt' stands at
$9,671,654,191,506.59 divided by the same 305,225,747 = already owe
$31,687 for every American man, woman and child. And what assurance do we
have from the government that this will work? President Bush Saturday -
"...require us to put a significant amount of taxpayer dollars on the line.
But I'm convinced that this bold approach will cost American families far
less than the alternative." Back in 2004, President Bush said this "One thing
is for certain, though, about me, and the world has learned this: When I
say something, I mean it. And the credibility of the United States
is incredibly important for keeping world peace and freedom." We
are guessing invading Martian's will start landing any day now.
Commodity
Comments
(Dow Jones) LME base metals could reverse gear and give back gains if risk
aversion returns to financial markets, says Barclays Capital. "With sentiment
still fragile and price action extremely volatile, we would caution that
these gains are not concrete and could crumble if the market gets nervous."
The worst may be over for commodities after the steepest rout since at least
1956 drove out speculators and the U.S. government unveiled a plan to end
the worst credit-market seizure since the Great Depression. -
more
One readers stock investment alert -
pdf here(whether you agree or not, it's worth the read)
The second of three Cuban nickel plants
was scheduled to open this week, according to local radio reports, as the
industry struggles to resume full production after taking a direct hit from
Hurricane Ike two weeks ago. -
more
The mining sector is confident it
can withstand the ill effects of the current global financial crisis and
credit crunch, which will be felt for only a short period, Chamber of Mines
of the Philippines president Philip Romualdez said at a news briefing. -
more
VietNamNet Bridge - Vietnam’s proposed
up to six-fold royalty tax increase could push foreign miners to the wall.
-
more
What are the metals that constitute
your mobile phone? Don’t be surprised, it contains iron, nickel, aluminium,
copper and the precious metal gold. How much of this is wasted if old unused
mobiles were simply kept at home or thrown into a landfill? -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.18/lb
higher. All metals, precious and base, are
trading higher this morning. Crude oil is trading higher, around $106 per
barrel. Dollar is lower against the Euro. Sucden's day old nickel chart shows
trading activity thru Friday -
here. Nickel inventories
fell for only the second time this month, while the BDI slumped.
Nickel May Drop 14% in 2009 on Lower
Demand, Bureau Forecasts - Nickel prices may average 14 percent less than
estimate because of slowing demand in North America and Europe, Australia's
commodity forecaster said. -
more
UPDATE 2-Australia cuts zinc, nickel outlook but stays upbeat -
more
The value of Australia's commodity exports is expected to increase this year,
according to official estimates issued today. -
more
Australia cut its estimate of annual zinc output by 12 percent on Monday,
citing falling prices and mine closures, but said iron ore and copper production
would top earlier forecasts despite a months-long disruption in natural gas
supply. - more
Full ABARE report articles refer to above - pdf
here
Reports
BMO Commodity Watch Monthly - The Goods -
pdf here
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal markets closed stronger
on Friday, as the “feel-good” bounce emanating from the US equity
markets continued to sweep through commodities. The rally was sparked by
a proposal -- formally put forward to Congress over the weekend-- that the
government would create a massive reserve fund designed to soak up to $700
billion of mortgage instruments in an effort to get capital flowing more
freely through the banking system. ... We have been quite negative
on metals for some time now, but think that this latest rally, which is extending
into today’s session, may have some legs to it, as the recently announced
industry bailout has changed the commodities landscape to some degree. In
particular, the mammoth spending program announced could, in the least, reverse
the bearish impact of the rising dollar on commodities and push the deteriorating
macro situation somewhat to the backburner for now. In fact, the greenback
is now just under 1.46 against the Euro and has lost substantial ground over
the past few days. We think an eventual test of 1.50 against the Euro cannot
be ruled out. In addition, as we will see in our charts that follow, some
of the metals held their recent lows last week, and by not taking them out,
could very well encourage sidelined money to bet on a further upward advance
into the trading range. ... We are currently at $17,320, up $370/MT
on nickel, but need to do more work on the charts before the complex starts
to look better. In the least, prices need to recover back over the $18,000
support that held for several weeks before breaking. We would remain neutral
on the complex for the time being."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base
metals report
here)
Outokumpu Oyj will close a stainless steel plant in Sheffield, UK, laying
off all 230 workers in the process, due to oversupply.
World crude steel production for the 66 countries reporting to the International
Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) was 112.2 million metric tons (mmt) in August.
This is 2.9% higher than the same month last year.-
more
chart
here (complete pdf report
here)
China Securities Journal reported that the sluggish steel demand is here
to stay as a result of the moderated economic growth and the weakening housing
market in particular. -
more
Panic gripped global financial markets
this week in the wake of US investment banking giant Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy
announcement Monday, with physical nickel trade in Europe grinding nearly
to a halt as consumers took a step back to wait for a clearer picture of
the fallout to emerge. -
more
It is reported that investment banking and
broking group Numis Securities has exchanged its commodity preference of
steel making bulk commodities for base metals as it believes pessimism on
commodities will soon spread to steel. -
more
Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys
At 16th September 2008 -
more
Spot prices of bulk ferroalloy imports from China into Japan fell this week
as Japanese steelmakers postponed their fourth quarter purchases due to delays
in pricing settlements amid high inventories, market sources said Thursday.
-
more
Sudbury fire crews spent much of Friday
fighting a stubborn blaze at the Steelworkers Hall -- one of Sudbury's landmarks.
-
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page -
(chart of dollar index)
World markets got good news this morning (MarketWatch) "Saying government
intervention is "essential" to stemming the financial market crisis, President
George W. Bush said Friday that a broad-ranging U.S. plan will get the financial
system moving again, but cautioned that it will put "significant" amounts
of taxpayer dollars on the line." Also Marketwatch reported "The U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission early Friday issued an emergency order temporarily
banning short selling in the shares of nearly 800 financial institutions."
On this news, Wall Street roared back to life, up 400 points, after a 300
point gain late yesterday. Gold had its biggest drop in 25 years early on,
but has since rebounded. Oil toyed with the $100/barrel line all morning,
and continues to do so. Bush's warning that the government rescue plan would
put "significant" amounts of taxpayer dollars on the line.", jolted the dollar.
It traded lower against the Euro, by around 3/4% at our update, and all base
and precious metals responded by going green. Indicator charts show
nickel went positive shortly after our morning update, and never looked back.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.67/lb . The
morning's response, in general, was a knee jerk reaction to seemingly good
news, and it will be interesting to see how the market trades next week,
after traders have had the weekend to debate what the government's plan will
really mean.
Have a safe and restful weekend!!
Commodity
Comments
(UBS) "We believe the spot nickel price is below the marginal cost of production
of Chinese nickel pig iron producers."
Watch the Awareness Test above - it has strong business implications
(Did he really say that?) "We are interested in further attraction of foreign
investment. Although of course we expect mutuality: the readiness of foreign
partners to accept investment from Russia. We don't understand it when barriers
are raised strictly on a political basis, that have no grounding in economics,"
Putin said on Friday at the Sochi-2008 economic forum.
(Interfax) Shares in MMC Norilsk Nickel fell on Friday in connection with
an on-going shareholder dispute at the metals giant while the rest of the
stock market posted strong gains.
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.05/lb
. Indicator charts show extreme volatility
in nickel trading already this morning as the bears and the bulls play rough.
At present nickel is down, and having broke support, if it can't get a least
a dead cat bounce today, the price could head farther south. All other base
metals are trading higher, as are most precious metals. Oil is playing cat
and mouse with the $100/ barrel line and the dollar is also slipping up and
down against the Euro.
Nickel Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop
in 4 Years on Stockpiles - Nickel headed for its biggest weekly drop in almost
four years as stocks of the metal rose to a nine- year high, signaling weak
demand. -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices raced higher
yesterday, but by the close, gave back most of their gains to finish mixed.
At one point early in the day, aluminum dropped to its lowest since last
December, (as did copper), while nickel was at its weakest level since April
2006, before rebounding slightly.... LME prices are up today, particularly
in copper, which has tacked on about $130/MT. There are more modest gains
in the rest of the group, but we have yet to make up much of the ground lost
earlier in the week. Oil markets are up sharply today as well, and back over
the $100 mark, as is the dollar, now at 1.42 against the Euro. The stronger
greenback is perhaps keeping the rally in metals somewhat in check. .. We
are currently at $16,800, up $50/MT; we failed to hold $17,050 support yesterday,
and now see prices on track to head towards the $15,500 range. The recent
slippage in steel prices, (somewhat late in the game compared with what we
have been seeing in nonferrous prices), could be contributing to the recent
declines we are seeing in nickel, zinc, and tin-- three metals that are more
directly impacted by the fortunes of the steel sector." (read Ed
Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) Shanghai-listed Baoshan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. (Baosteel) will
lower some of its steel product ex-works prices by up to RMB 800 ($117.17)
per ton in November, as demand from downstream users continues to weaken,
industry insiders told Interfax on Sept. 19.
(India - Navneet Damani, research analyst-base metals, Anand Rathi Commodities)
- “Drying stainless steel demand continues to weigh on nickel prices.
$17,000 is seen as a crucial support for LME prices. If nickel fails to show
a rebound from this level, there could be a considerable decline in prices.
In this scenario, September contract on MCX could fall towards Rs 720 per
kg.”
Strange as it may seem, the worsening credit crunch that most recently sank
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may have a silver lining for miners. -
more
Japan's stainless steel manufacturers find
themselves in rising inquiries from China's wholesalers that want to import
Japanese stainless CR sheets. Chinese wholesalers may have concluded that
the stainless CR sheet market in East Asia has bottomed out, suggest Japanese
steel industry sources. -
more
Japanese steelmakers are not considering cutting output as demand from
shipbuilders and construction machinery makers is solid, the head of an industry
body said on Friday, but he added that recent financial turmoil was a concern.
-
more
Finnish Outokumpu said on Friday it would
close its loss-making thin strip steel business in Sheffield, Britain due
to market oversupply, and take a hit of 65 million euros ($94.3 million)
this quarter. -
more
POSCO, the world's No.4 steelmaker,
expects steel prices to stay firm, amid rising concerns that falling prices
in China on weak domestic consumption may spread across the world, a senior
official said. -
more
China's Iron and Steel Association (CISA)
said yesterday that Brazilian iron ore giant Vale's decision to raise its
prices by as much as 20 percent was "unreasonable" and threatened the
international pricing mechanism. -
more
China could stop using Vale's iron ore if the Brazilian miner insists on
a price rise, industry officials, who forecast a slowdown in steel demand
this year, said yesterday. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Markets appear to be in a dash for cash mood again today, as markets don't
appear to be showing any signs of normalcy quite yet. Here are some news
headlines from today (Reuters) The index of leading U.S. economic indicators
fell by a larger-than-expected 0.5 percent in August to 100.8, showing a
grim economic outlook amid financial market turmoil, the Conference Board
said on Thursday. (MarketWatch) The debt burden of U.S. households
grew at the slowest pace in at least 56 years during the second quarter and
American families saw their net worth fall for the third straight quarter,
the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. (MarketWatch) Britain's Financial
Services Authority on Thursday announced the unprecedented move of banning
short-selling and forbidding any increase in new positions. (Dow Jones) Housing
starts fell 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 895,000 in August, the
lowest in 17 years. (Reuters) The global financial crisis is 'very
serious' and is causing 'considerable shockwaves', German Finance Minister
Peer Steinbrueck was quoted as saying on Thursday. (AFP) Trading on
the Russian stock market was suspended for a third day on Thursday after
the worst plunge in share prices since the 1998 financial crisis, a market
spokesman told AFP. (Canadian Press) The United States will endure
a severe recession lasting a year but avoid a multi-year depression because
troubled financial companies will quickly be purged, merged or bought, a
National Bank economist predicted Thursday.; and finally, (Associated Press)
Eager to show that he feels people's pain, President Bush scuttled a political
fundraising trip Thursday to tell the country his administration is working
feverishly to calm turmoil in the financial markets. (well now that last
one just makes us feel all warm and cozy inside).
Dollar traded lower today against the Euro (about 3/4% at update time), and
oil has dropped back below $100 to reflect only a few pennies gain at update
time. Metals ended mixed with precious mostly higher, and industrial or base
mostly lower. Indicator charts show nickel was quiet early, made an
afternoon charge, which failed late. Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended the day at $7.60/lb
. In other news, the Paralympics in Beijing
officially ended Wednesday. This means Beijing and surrounding areas can
return to a sense of normalcy. Unknown what effect this might have, if any,
but finding someone bullish on the market isn't easy these days. These days,
it's a debate between the "don't panic's" and "the sky is falling" groups
that are making the most noise. Stainless steel producers, who started
losing buyers as nickel prices increased dramatically early last year, lost
even more as the price collapsed later that summer, and now with nickel trading
in a $7-$8/lb range, a price most producers would be happy to pay, stainless
steel demand from distributors and end users has been stung by the worldwide
economic slowdown. BDI up for the third consecutive day, and LME nickel inventories
rose, as they ever every day this month, except yesterday.
Nickel Institute Brochure - Nickel Enabling Sustainability -
pdf here
Commodity
Comments
(Dow Jones) "There is a sense of calm returning to the base metals markets,
although that was the sense Wednesday before equity and credit markets
experienced another afternoon wobble, and dragged base metals down, says
JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen. Says overall the macroeconomic news remains
bearish for the base metals, but this has to be mitigated by the fact that
investors are aggressively short of these base metals."
Stephen Briggs, commodity strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland to Reuters
- "“Economic prospects globally have deteriorated. People will be busily
revising down their economic growth forecasts and metals demand forecasts.”
Mining stocks are discounting as much as a 50 percent decline in commodity
prices as the market factors in ``a significant cyclical downturn,'' Sanford
C. Bernstein & Co. said. -
more
LME Metal Prices Not Done Falling Despite Bounce -
more
The financial crisis that began 13 months ago has entered a new, far more
serious phase. - more
Ex-SEC Official Blames Agency for Blow-Up of Broker-Dealers -
more
Wondering where it’s all going to end? Or who’s going to be left
standing once the dust settles from this latest round of financial collapses?
- more
Spain's Acerinox, the world's biggest producer
of stainless steel, has yet to see the pick-up in demand that it has been
expecting to occur this month, a senior company official said on Thursday.
- more
Chromium: More Than Fancy Trim - Some
things have not changed over the last couple of hundred years. -
more
China, the world's largest consumer of
iron ore, said Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce has stopped loading the raw
material on ships bound for the Asian country, leading to losses for its
steelmakers. - more
India's largest integrated stainless steel
producer Jindal Stainless will float a subsidiary company Jindal Venture
PTE Ltd in Singapore, which will control all its global mining operations.
- more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.07/lb
higher. Metals trading seems to be
in a holding pattern this morning, with precious and base mostly trading
slightly higher. Dollar is down by 1% against the Euro this morning, on concerns
more financial institutions may be in trouble and "after the world's biggest
central banks said they will act jointly to revive financial markets, easing
demand for the U.S. currency."
(more) Oil is trading above $100/barrel again, up around
4%. On Sucden's day old chart, you can see we busted below Nimit's support
line in yesterday's trading
(here). Edward Meir
with MF Global is back from a conference with his daily report. Of the world
markets that have closed or are presently trading, most are in the red
(here), although
US futures are up in pre-trading. But this was just released in the U.S.
- "First-time jobless claims increase to 455,000 in latest week, up 10,000".
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Since we last wrote about metals
on Monday, the world seems to have changed, as financial markets continue
to unravel at dizzying speeds. In fact, global equity markets have plunged
by such alarming amounts, that the Russians found it preferable to shut their
markets down entirely rather than watch the carnage on a minute-to-minute
basis. As stocks fell, yields on US government paper soared. ... All this
turmoil is taking its toll on commodities in varying degrees. Base metals
seem to have taken it worse than other complexes, such as gold, which saw
its biggest one-day jump ever yesterday, rising by about $83/MT on the day.
Oil too, has not fared as well, despite yesterday’s uptick, and is still
well below the $100 mark. Although, the dollar is now just over 1.44 against
the Euro, losing about 3.5% in the space of a week, its weakness has hardly
steadied base metals either. Instead, base metals sentiment seems to be
negatively influenced by perceptions, (legitimate in our view), that the
current turmoil is bound to slow global growth further, particularly in China.
In this regard, Chinese authorities this week lowered rates and reserve
requirements for the first time in years, a tacit admission that things are
decelerating. (Interestingly, metals hardly reacted to the news). ...
We are currently at $17,200, up $195/MT; the nickel chart looks grim, as
a band of support around the $18,000 mark seems to have given way. A hold
above $17,050 today will prove critical." (read Ed Meir's complete morning
base metals report
here)
Barclays Capital analyst Gayle Berry - "The demand outlook has deteriorated...
The market is concerned about the strength of Chinese consumption."
Neil Buxton, managing director of GFMS Metals Consulting predicting nickel
to average $14,000/ton in 2009 - ($6.35/lb)
(Dow Jones) - "The world refined nickel market was in a deficit of 17,200
metric tons in the January to July period, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics
said Thursday. World refined production dropped 5% on the year to 807,100
tons, mostly due to declines in China and Japan. World refined demand was
1% lower at 842,300 tons. In July, nickel smelter output was 115,900 tons,
below demand at 120,500 tons."
Taiwan’s Yieh Hsing Enterprise Co., Ltd, one of main wire rod producers
in Taiwan, has announced to cut carbon wire rod production around 1000~2000
tones per month at it Kaohsiung plant. However, Yieh Hsing has produced carbon
wire rods around 5000~10000 tones per month in its Kaohsiung plant. Meanwhile
for stainless steel wire rods production are quite stable around 6000~7000
tones per month. -
more
(Interfax) China may boycott iron ore from the world's largest iron ore supplier,
Brazilian-based Vale, if the company tries to impose mid-contract price hikes
on its Asian customers, a senior official with the China Iron and Steel
Association (CISA) told Interfax Sept. 18.
Prices Of Ferro-Chrome Are Being Blown
With Cool Wind And Weaken For Next Quarter = Low Carbon Fe-Cr Will Propose
To Reduce Its Price In This - Next Weeks -
more
There has been very little movement in strip
mill product prices since July. However, demand over the holiday period has
been slower than normal for the time of year because of the current poor
economic climate. -
more
In the world of base metals, molybdenum
has traditionally been considered simply a byproduct of copper. But with
the boom of the steel market, this alloying metal has seen unprecedented
growth in its demand and prices in recent years. -
more
Mincor says nickel prices could soar
if projects deferred - Kambalda miner Mincor Resources, Australia's third
largest listed nickel producer, says the price of the commodity could "go
through the roof" in two years if large laterite projects are deemed uneconomical
and deferred. - more
Steel shipments by metals service centers
in the United States and Canada declined at double-digit rates in August,
and aluminum shipments fell sharply as well, as economic uncertainty reduced
orders to the minimum amounts required. Inventory-to-shipment ratios rose
to higher levels for steel in both countries and in aluminum in the United
States. -
more
The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that for the
month of July 2008, U.S. steel mills shipped 9,175,000 net tons, a 3.8 percent
increase from the 8,844,000 net tons shipped in July 2007 and a 0.4 percent
increase from the 9,136,000 net tons shipped in the previous month, June
2008. - more
Jindal Stainless, India's largest stainless
steel producer, sees 7-8 percent growth in output and 20 percent growth in
sales volume for the current financial year, despite sluggish global production.
-
more
Concerns that the European Union's new
REACH regulations will disrupt metal and chemical supply could begin to be
realized by the end of this year if importers don't take action to comply,
tin research body ITRI said in a statement Wednesday. -
more
Russpetstal (”Russian Special
Steel”, RSS), the steel affiliate of the state-owned Russian Technologies
holding, has decided to acquire up to 4 new operating mills if the price
is right, and it can raise the finance from Russian state banks. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Marketwatch reports - "Outright fear gripped the U.S. financial sector on
Wednesday and investors aggressively sold off shares of the two largest remaining
U.S. investment banks, signaling the rapidly waning confidence in the structural
integrity of the nation's financial system." "Home building tumbled
again in August, with the number of new building permits for single-family
homes dropping to a 26-year low, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday."
In England, Reuters reported "British unemployment registered its biggest
jump in 16 years in August, factory orders fell at their sharpest rate in
more than two years this month, and the country's biggest mortgage lender
might soon be taken over.". With offsetting dismal news, the dollar lost
a little against the Euro today, down about 2/3 of 1%. Oil was up 3% at update
time. Precious metals traded mostly higher today, gold up 10% and silver
nearly 12%, while base metals were unable to hold on to their early morning
gains. Indicator charts show nickel held a slight gain until late into the
afternoon, when it took a dive of around $700 a tonne. Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at $7.71/lb
. The $85 billion dollar takeover,
or takeout, or rescue (pick your poison) of AIG last night, rocked
world markets, with most trading in the red
(here) Russian markets were especially hard hit,
where trading was actually halted for an hour, to calm nerves. The Dow was
selling around 300 points lower at update time, after falling as much as
400 points earlier in the day. The US government loan to AIG was unprecedented,
but the "necessity" for the government intervention, had traders wondering
who might be next. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs saw their stock plummet
as nervous attention shifted there way. Marketwatch reported ""The Fed is
trying to provide liquidity as quickly as it can, but there seems to be an
endless supply of 'moles' and only one mallet," said Kevin Giddis, managing
director, Morgan Keegan & Company Inc. "Credit is seizing as we speak.
The banks aren't really lending to each other." Morgan reported profits last
night that exceeded expectations, but even a sound financial company appears
to be vulnerable to the panic mindset. While the bulls are proclaiming there
are bargains to be had, and the bears claim the end of the world as we know
it is just around the corner, the independent trader appears to be unwilling
to risk reaching for a falling knife, and may be content to cash out and
wait for fundamentals to come into play again. In the mean time, possibly
unjustified, but understandably, fearful emotions appear to be in control
of the world's markets.
Investors remain jittery, all eyes
on financials / Metals under pressure as speculators sell, seeking cash -
more
Commodity
Comments
Macquarie Bank analyst Max Layton - "Base metals are weighed down by the
view that the Chinese economy, and the construction sector in particular,
will not recover until the second half of 2009."
Gayle Berry at Barclays Capital - "'This fall is because of the continuation
of risk reduction. What we're seeing here is, despite all these metals have
different fundamentals, everything's coming under pressure....People don't
want to establish fresh long positions at a a time when the macroeconomy
and financial markets are as uncertain as they are."
(LME trader to Reuters) "People need cash at the moment and the banks have
a tough time financing so it is not strange that we see metal turning up
in warehouses -- there will be more."
(WBMS) The nickel market was in deficit by 17,200 tonnes between January
and July 2008
(Dow Jones) - Jindal Stainless Ltd. ), India's biggest stainless steel
company by sales, won't cut its product prices in the immediate future because
of prevailing higher input costs, its vice chairman and managing director
said Wednesday.
(Scotia Daily Edge) A senior official from China Molybdenum Co. said last
week that, “since May’s earthquake, which devastated parts of Sichuan
province, the Chinese government is now insisting that stronger, higher
specification steel containing molybdenum and vanadium-based alloys are used
in the construction of bridges, schools, and other buildings.”
(Purchasing Magazine) Turkey’s Eti Krom, a major chrome ore supplier,
has forecast a 30% decline in prices in 2009 to an average annual price of
23.5¢/lb due to an oversupplied market....Analyst Jim Lennon at Macquarie
Research in London says Etikrom is blaming the expected price slide on “an
unstoppable ore flood” coming from South Africa and Oman into China.
(numerous) Monday - With the 504-point slide of The Dow Jones Industrial
Average on Monday, about $700 billion evaporated from retirement accounts,
government pension funds and other investment portfolios.
A major objective of many investors active in the natural resources sector
is to diversify away from the fiat-based world of finance and credit-dominated
sectors such as banking, insurance and retail. -
more
Citigroup’s (C) chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich this morning
says that the crumbling of commodities prices, and commodities stocks,
“another six or nine months of pain and underperformance,” including
coal, mining, machinery, energy equipment and services, engineering &
construction, as well as fertilizers. -
more
The Indian stainless steel industry is
looking ahead to a 10 per cent growth this year, with the Railways keen on
the increased use of the material for its rolling stock. -
more
Despite the current financial crisis, bulk
commodity pricing continues to remain strong. In fact, BMO suggests that
the correction of some metals commodities may be overdone. -
more
The world's largest steel maker,
ArcelorMittal, said on Wednesday it planned to cut production as much as
15 percent to support prices. -
more
Australia's mining boom may be fuelling
an alarming rise in HIV infections among cashed-up heterosexual outback miners
and businessmen in resource-rich states who holiday in Asia, say researchers.
- more
Jindal Stainless, India's largest stainless
steel producer, sees 7-8 percent growth in output and 20 percent growth in
sales volume for the current financial year, despite sluggish global production.
Jindal, which changed its name to JSL Ltd on Tuesday, said strong domestic
demand will help it to achieve a net profit and sales growth of 20 percent
in the year ending March 2009. -
more
The U.S. Department of Labor's Occupational
Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has started a local emphasis program
in Kansas and Eastern Missouri aimed at reducing workplace health hazards
associated with exposure to hexavalent chromium in general industry and
construction. - more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.09/lb
higher. Sucden's day old nickel
graph shows a market starting the day in an oversold position
(chart here), with a RSI of 31 and a Stochastic average
reading of 27.2. At press, the dollar was basically trading flat against
the euro, while oil had rebounded by nearly 4%. Metals are mostly green,
although their gains appear to be only slight. CNN reports what is helping
the market today "In an unprecedented move, the Federal Reserve Board is
lending as much as $85 billion to rescue crumbling insurer American International
Group, officials announced Tuesday evening."
Nickel Advances in London as AIG Rescue
Eases Market Concerns - Nickel rose in London as the Federal Reserve bailed
out American International Group Inc. to avert a collapse of the biggest
U.S. insurer. Aluminum and lead gained. -
more
Steel Founders' Society of America Casteel Reporter -
pdf here
Commodity
Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - next report on Thursday as Ed
is at conference
RIO Tinto and rival BHP Billiton are in-line for a seventh consecutive annual
price rise for the bulk commodity, analysts say. -
more
(China Mining) According to China's National Development & Reform Commission
steel prices in the major markets of 30 provinces and cities slid down in
August from a month before by 3.31% or climbed up 40.06% from the same period
last year to stand at CNY 6056 per tonne....It's predicted the steel prices
will keep a downward course in September amid continued growing output. In
the first seven months, the nation's cumulative crude steel, pig iron and
steel products increased 9.30%, 7.60% and 11.70% to 308.292 million tonnes,
288.942 million tonnes and 351.797 million tonnes respectively. Slowing growth
in fixed asset investment, especially the property industry, which constrains
the demand, and stabilizing coke price resulted from higher export tax effective
as of August 20th are also behind the forecast of price trend."
Mining stocks down, but financial crisis could be good news for precious
metals - more
Jinchuan Group Ltd., Asia's largest nickel
producer, has lowered its ex-works price for nickel on the back of diving
global prices, a company official told Interfax on Sept. 17. -
more
Because the unstable global economy has
weakened demand, Korea Posco and Japan's Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless
Steel Corp. (NSSC) have cut production to reduce the market supply in an
effort to stabilize the market. -
more
In its first official response to Vale's
request for higher iron ore prices, China's steel industry group said the
mining giant should immediately stop such unreasonable behavior that would
hurt long-term interests between the two sides. -
more
The fall in prices of industrial metals
such as copper, zinc, aluminium, lead and nickel is likely to benefit steel,
construction, electrical equipment, cable and battery manufacturers, besides
transportation and packaging industry. -
more
Steelmakers responded swiftly to a class
action lawsuit filed September 12 in US District Court, Northern Illinois,
seeking damages under the antitrust laws of the United States. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Marketplace - ""It's the end of the world as we know it. We're now dealing
with a problem that is probably much larger than we think. There is $1 trillion
of assets in AIG. It's much bigger and much more profound than a broker dealer
in New York. It will affect Main Street as well," said Marino Marin, managing
director at Gruppo, Levey & Co." World markets spent the evening trading
in the red as the financial woes of the US spread
(here).
Dollar was in a stalemate this morning, as forex traders watched to see if
the Fed might actually cut interest rates today, but after CNBC reported
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had canceled a scheduled speech to
focus on insurer American International Group's financial problems and hinted
government money would be involved, the dollar rose
(java chart),
as did the Dow. Reports from the Gulf are that numerous oil rigs were
seriously damaged by Hurricane Ike. It is also reported an explosion at a
Nigerian pipeline was from an attack, but oil has bear on the brain, and
oil traded lower yet again
(java chart).
Metals were all trading in the red today, both precious and industrial. Indicator
charts show nickel fell early, and attempted an unsuccessful afternoon charge.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$7.89/lb
. Official LME nickel inventories
went over the 51,000 tonne mark overnight, and with the news yesterday, that
the ISSF reported crude stainless steel production decreased in the first
half of 2008 by 1.8%, nickel traders appear to be bewildered.
DJ BASE METALS: LME Metals Decline
As Cash Favored, Financials Weigh - "Base metals on the London Metal Exchange
were lower Tuesday as market uncertainty continued to pressure markets lower
with the future of American International Group still in flux." -
more
Reports
The Long-Term Sustainability of Recent Commodity Price Strength -
pdf here
Commodity
Comments
UBS analyst John Reade - "Investors in commodity indices are increasingly
aware that they do not actually own hard assets, but rather they have an
investment in commodity futures - or a total return swap on an index of commodity
futures - with counterpart risk. This realization may be adding to deleveraging
pressure on commodity index investments."
Barclays Capital - "In the current environment of financial market woes,
macroeconomic concerns and risk reduction we expect base metals to remain
under pressure."
Unionized workers at Vale Inco Ltd's Thomson,
Manitoba, nickel operations voted in favor a new three-year contract deal
that would see pay increases and cost of living adjustments. -
more
BHP Billiton has warned that its profits
are negatively exposed to any economic slowdown in China. The warning was
contained in the group's US annual report and breaks with the habit of the
past five years of talking up the strength of Chinese demand. -
more
Liberty Mines Inc. is pleased to announce
that pre-production has commenced at the McWatters nickel mine from the 65m
level. - more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.16/lb
lower. The Fed is meeting today,
and a possible rate cut that wasn't being predicted by economists last week,
is now being viewed as a possibility. This after the Dow lost over 500 points
yesterday, as the financial crisis grows. This kind of speculation
has the dollar trading flat so far this morning, while oil continues to fall;
at one point this morning trading at $90.81 per barrel. Sucden's day old
chart reflects yesterday's drop
here in nickel pricing.
A contract resolution at Thompson, a report by ISSF reporting world stainless
steel production was lower in th first half of 2008, a Cuban nickel mine
resuming production, a daily continuation in LME inventory growth, and a
general nervousness over the financial woes in the US, all combined to pressure
nickel lower yesterday.
(Dow Jones) Nickel hit a recent intraday low of $17,300 on August 6. Break
below $17,000 would take metal to levels last hit in April 2006. Nickel is
down 66% from its all time high of $51,800 hit in May 2007."
(Dow Jones) The London Metal Exchange will launch minor metals contracts
for molybdenum and cobalt in the second half 2009, the exchange said in a
statement Tuesday.
Financial turmoil leads to broad retreat in commodities -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - no comments until Thursday as
Ed Meir is at a conference
China's spot prices of iron ore have been dropping since May, according to
China Iron and Steel Association.
-
more
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Inc reported that it has agreed
with Local 9531 of the United Steelworkers to continue operations at the
Company's Bridgeville facility while negotiations of a mutually acceptable
labor agreement continue.
(Interfax) China produced 351.09 million tons of crude steel in the first
eight months of this year, up 8.3 percent year-on-year, while crude steel
output for the month of August stood at 42.57 million tons, down 5.17 percent
from the previous month, according to statistics released by Mysteel on Sept.
16.
Ten Ways to Protect Your Finances From the Crisis -
more
Bailouts Will Push US into Depression: Manager -
more
Nickel '08 surplus seen at 26,000
tonnes-Sumitomo - Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd, a top Japanese smelter, said
it expects a global surplus in nickel this year of 26,000 tonnes, citing
a slow recovery in stainless steel demand.-
more
It is reported that India has set an export
quota of around 90,000 tonnes of chromium ore and concentrate for August
to September 2008 period. Chromium ore is likely to account for 12,000 to
15,000 tonnes of the quota. -
more
Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending September
13, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,055,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 86.1 percent. Production was 2,047,000 tons
in the week ending September 13, 2007, while the capability utilization then
was 86.5 percent. The current week production represents a 0.4 percent increase
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
September 13, 2008 is down 0.4 percent from the previous week ending September
6, 2008 when production was 2,062,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization
was 86.4 percent."
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Not that anything else much mattered today after Lehman's announced bankruptcy,
but the Fed reported "industrial production decreased 1.1 percent in August
and was revised down in June and July to show smaller gains of 0.2 percent
and 0.1 percent respectively."
(report) The Federal Reserve Board also reported US
production capacity was at 78.7% in August, lower than expected, and the
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for August fell into the red, much lower
than expected. In western Europe, new car sales fell 17 percent to 714,700
vehicles in August, and European Central Bank policy maker Yves Mersch told
a German daily "We should not underestimate the fact that core inflation
remains very high. It is above the level associated with price stability".
And while things in American must appear dismal, it apparently looked
worse elsewhere, because the dollar traded higher, while oil was down nearly
5%. Precious metals were mostly up today, while base metals were down. Indicator
charts show nickel fell in early trading, but stabilized in afternoon trading.
Overnight inventory numbers showed another large gain, and the agreement
at Vale's Thompson gave no one reason to believe that will end anytime soon.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.21/lb , and
reversed its Friday mini bull run (day old chart
here). Dow has been
selling in the -200 to -300 range most of the morning, while most of the
rest of the world ended down (list
here). In a
surprise move, China cut its interest rate late Monday, which could help
Asian markets tomorrow.
Industrial metals tumbled on Monday
as investors dumped positions to seek refuge in safer assets after Lehman
Brothers filed for bankruptcy, raising worries over the stability of the
U.S. financial system. -
more
Stainless steel output down further
in H1, but recovering: ISSF - Stainless steel crude steel production decreased
in the first half of 2008 by 1.8% compared with the same period of 2007,
but the downturn is slowing, according to preliminary figures released Monday
by the International Stainless Steel Forum. -
more
A Report On The State Of Canadian Mining industry -
pdf here
China's Non-Ferrous Metal Industry -Its trend and impact for future outlook
- pdf here
Commodity
Comments
(Analyst John Reade) "We doubt many investors and traders will be adding
to risk in the short term, so position reduction will probably be the dominant
theme. Based on an analysis of open interest and price, we believe the most
significant shorts lie in copper, nickel and zinc, although the market is
probably short in all base metals to some degree."
(Resource Investor) Molybdenum - "Why, some might say, is there this level
of interest in an old-technology metal? Well, it's not so old-tech. It's
important* in the chemical, lubricant, and metallurgical industries. Moly
has uses as catalysts, paint pigments, corrosion inhibitors, smoke and flame
retardants, dry lubricant (molybdenum disulfide) on space vehicles—with
its resistance to high loads and temperatures, lighting, and electronics.
As the requirements for ever-cleaner petroleum-based fuels increase, moly
catalysts for desulfurization will see greater use. The U.S. Geological Survey's
closing comment on moly's applications, "Few of molybdenum's uses have acceptable
substitutions." And, as an example in electronics, when you see red on a
flat-screen display it's likely moly-based; and moly has applications in
high-definition TV as well."
After five years of tightening monetary policy to fight inflation, China
abruptly reversed course on Monday, cutting interest rates and easing bank
lending restrictions in response to signs that growth in the Chinese economy
was slowing. - more
Australian mining giant BHP Billiton
has announced that it has no plans of pulling out from the multi-million
Pujada Nickel Project in Mati City, Davao Oriental even as it continues to
mire in a deadlock with its Filipino partner company, Asiaticus Mining
Corporation (Amscor). -
more
A Congresswoman from the nearby province
of Davao Oriental blamed indiscriminate mining by small-scale miners as the
reason behind the landslides in Maco, Compostela Valley that killed 26 people
and injured 29 more. -
more
Sustainability the Key for Vale Inco’s
Vice President and COO Parviz Farsangi in Sudbury Speech - by Bill Bradley
- more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.52/lb
lower. While gold is up a hair this morning,
the rest of the precious and base metals complex is in the red... some quite
handily, including nickel. Dollar is up a little over 1% against the Euro,
oil is down nearly 5%. Wall Street is expected to tumble lower on the news
of Lehman's bankruptcy, but the AIG and Merrill news may calm the markets.
If not, it could be a bad day for shareholders and those with investments.
Nickel Leads Metals Lower in London
on Stockpiles, Falling Oil - "Nickel Leads Metals Lower in London on
Stockpiles, Falling Oil Nickel fell, leading all industrial metals down in
London trading, as increased stockpiles fueled concern a housing and construction
slump is hurting demand. Tin and lead also slid as crude oil pulled commodities
lower." -
more
Nickel tumbles more than 5 pct in metals sell-off - "Nickel prices tumbled
more than 5 percent on Monday as investors sold-off metals amid financial
turmoil after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy." -
more
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Base metals continued to rally
impressively on Friday on the back of a much weaker dollar, but those gains,
(and more), have since been given back in what is turning out to be the
“Mother of all Mondays”. The day is starting off with a Chapter
11 filing by Lehman Bothers, this coming after a weekend of talks that failed
to see the firm bought by any of its prospective suitors. ... When
markets are teetering on the brink of financial Armageddon, it is hard to
make the case for holding practically anything other than cash, and not
surprisingly, we are seeing a broad retreat in most commodities. The dollar
has reversed earlier losses, and as a clear beneficiary of the rush to safety,
is now at 1.42 against the Euro, up from 1.44. Despite the current gloom,
we think that should the fallout from Lehman stay ring-fenced over the course
of the day, metals could recover their stride, in line with firming equity
markets. ... We are currently at $18,050, down $1200/MT; there is some support
around current levels, (red line), but if things break below here, there
is little else apparent on the charts "(read Ed Meir's complete morning
base metals report
here)
(Reuters) Sept 12 - Chinese steel mills have yet to agree on a response to
a demand for higher payment for iron ore from Brazilian miner Vale, despite
three days of intense meetings in Beijing, industry sources said. Mills arguing
that the Chinese industry should refuse to cave and rely instead on existing
iron ore stocks have failed to persuade some of the larger mills, which fear
that in the long term they cannot do without high-grade Brazilian iron ore.
(SG) In China, the stainless steel industry remains largely quiet and purchasers
of stainless steel scrap are reluctant to commit to large purchases of material
from overseas. Stainless steel mills said that the high prices demanded by
US and European suppliers of scrap make such purchases unfeasible in present
market conditions. They prefer to stay away from the volatile international
market and buy from domestic sources.
Tashan iron ore mine tailings disaster death toll rises to 254.
(Steelguru) India's MMTC announced that it will hold the price of chrome
ore unchanged by the end of September 2008 after 2 consecutive price hikes
in March and May 2008.
LCH.Clearnet said on Monday it had declared
Lehman Brothers a defaulter after the U.S. investment bank filed for bankruptcy.
-
more
The US Department of Commerce is
conducting an administrative review of the antidumping duty order on imports
of corrosion-resistant flat carbon steel products from Korea in response
to a request from US Steel, Nucor and ArcelorMittal USA. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Weekend updates, September 13 & 14
(comment) Nickel prices traded
higher Friday, mostly due to the falling dolllar. Stainless steel users dodged
a bullet Friday when Vale and the local USW in Thompson, Canada agreed to
a new tentative contract.
The Next Commodities Boom: Around the Corner? -
more
The European Union will not impose
anti-dumping duties for now in the first of three investigations into Chinese
steel imports, sources familiar with one of the most sensitive EU-China trade
cases said on Friday. -
more
Bloomberg - "Crude oil was little changed after falling below $100 a barrel
in New York today for the first time since April on signs that a slowing
global economy will curtail energy demand and as Hurricane Ike takes aim
at Texas refineries.... The euro rose as much as 1.5 percent against the
dollar." Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.70/lb
Updates on Ike -
here
Base metals on the London Metal Exchange
were up sharply Friday as U.S. dollar weakness inspired buying across the
complex, helped by reports of decent Asian buying, but many traders and analysts
said this is likely just a temporary short-covering rally. -
more
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "The metals complex for the most
part chalked up a solid gain yesterday, with the price advances coming through
despite wobbly energy markets, a stronger dollar, and an initially weaker
US equity markets. The fact that metals withstood this barrage of exogenous
negative influences was impressive, and should have prompted us to conclude
that that the bounce from oversold conditions has yet to run its course...We
are sharply higher again as of this writing, but this time with good reason.
The dollar has rebounded back over the 140 mark, and is now trading under
141, unleashing strong buying in commodities. ...We are currently at $18,900,
up $400/MT (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Commodities led the investment pack in the first half of the year, but in
recent weeks the tide of bad news for investors in the asset class has been
seemingly endless. -
more
Jinchuan Group Will Reduce 10,000 to 20,000 tons Nickel Production This Year
(Dow Jones) Jones)--U.S. nickel exports rose 10.0% in July from the previous
month, and was up 95.9% from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported
Friday.
Vale Inco has reached a tentative contract
deal with unionized workers at its Thompson, Manitoba, nickel operations,
the United Steelworkers union said on Friday. -
more
Zambia's sole nickel mine is stockpiling
nickel and cobalt concentrate to export to China before the end of the year,
the mine's owners said on Friday. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals rebounded yesterday,
but rather surprisingly, did so without the help of energy, which finished
lower after a very choppy session, or the dollar, which ended slightly higher
on the day. Instead, we seemed to have had a technical bounce after some
rather oversold readings were reached, particularly on copper, and ali, where
as we noted in yesterday’s note, the RSI’s were in the low 30’s
to high 20’s. ... Metals are mixed as of this writing, having
recovered from earlier modest losses. However, we suspect the sellers will
revisit more forcefully later in the day given the strength of the dollar,
which is now trading at 1.3904 against the Euro, and obviously taking out
the psychological 1.40 level. ... We are currently at $18,500, unchanged,
and quiet.(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) U.S. nickel imports fell 9.0% in July from last month, but was
up 17.2% from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
(Dow Jones) Nickel prices are trading near the marginal costs of production,
which should limit any significant downside risk, says Barclays Capital.
Rallies are unlikely in the current environment, though, as high nickel
inventories, dollar strength and negative sentiment in broader financial
markets continue to weigh on base metals in general.
Eric Sprott, chairman, chief executive and portfolio manager at Sprott Asset
Management - letter to clients last month - “We believe the bizarre
action in the markets during July and August does not portend of a new trend.
In our opinion, oil, gold and other real assets shall remain in a bull market
and the faux-rally in financials will die the death of a thousand cuts.”
In recent weeks, we have seen the worst sell-off of commodities in the history
of commodity trading. -
more
(Reuters) The European Commission slashed its economic growth forecasts for
Europe on Wednesday in an admission that a downturn which began in the United
States is hitting far harder than many imagined six months ago.
To hear Donald Coxe tell it, the commodity selloff ripping through Canada's
stock market is no accident. -
more
Commodities bull markets should be measured in terms of decades versus yearly
trends that most investors cling to, as market economist Nikolai Kondratiev
argued back in the 1920s. -
more
As the Korean currency dropped sharply
recently against the US dollar, the difference between Posco HR price and
that of other Asian countries, such as Japan and China, has become bigger
and bigger. - more
Mr Lou Dingbo chairman of Special Steel
Enterprise Association of China said that "One remarkable change in the stainless
steel industry in China is that the advanced production capacity has acquired
the leading position. -
more
Western Areas NL, an Australian nickel
producer that's tripled sales, is studying acquisitions as this year's drop
in the price of the metal may force competitors to look for buyers as margins
get squeezed. -
more
Roger Agnelli, the chief executive of
Brazilian iron ore miner Vale, said on Wednesday the company's current price
negotiations with Asian steel mills would not take effect until 2009. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Markets appear to be drifting today, not knowing which way to go. The dollar
has spent much of the morning trading up against the Euro. Under 'bear market
sentiment' in the dictionary, you could find "crude oil traders appear to
be wondering what effect yesterday's announced OPEC cut will have, or whether
Ike in the Gulf will have any affect, or whether the drop in inventory reported
by the EIA today might have, or whether the earthquake near Iran's biggest
oil port this morning will have an effect", therefore oil is trading lower?
Metals were mixed, with precious all trading lower, and base mostly trading
slightly higher. Indicator charts show nickel traded in about a $400/tonne
range today, and while Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day
at $8.30/lb ,
it could be argued that the trading appeared to favor the bulls in
the latter half of the day. Nickel traders appear to be in limbo, waiting
on news, or even a rumor out of the Vale-USW talks going on in Thompson,
Manitoba, Canada. LME nickel inventories gained again overnight. Sucden's
day old chart reflects the overall bearish pressure on the market
(here), and today's
trading will reflect a continuation of this. Cuban officials advise their
nickel operations should be back up and running in a few days, after Hurricane
Ike passed thru. Ike is a Category 1, in the Gulf, and heading for southern
Texas (updated map
here)
Tropical Storm Sinlaku now looks to be a potential problem for Okinawa and
southern Japan (map
here)
The death toll from yesterday's collapsed iron ore waster reservoir in China,
now stands at 128. Iran is reporting 4 killed this morning from a 6.1
earthquake, near its largest oil port.
Commodity
Comments
Chinese media sources report ferrochrome FeCr55C1000(50%) is selling in Tianjin
for 13,200/RMB ton today compared to 14,000/RMB ton a week ago. It
also report ferromolybdenum FeMo60 is selling in Wuhan 270000/RMB ton, same
as last week. High carbon ferrochrome HC FeCr min C6-8.5% is listed as selling
for $1.80-$2.00/lb FOB China port, down from $2.00-$2.10/lb a week ago. Low
carbon ferrochrome LC FeCr C0.025% Si1.0-1.5% is listed as selling for
$4.55-$4.75/lb, no change in the past week.
(China Mining) Sinosteel recently signed a frame contract with the Laibin
city government, Guangxi to merge with Guangxi Bayi Ferroalloy (Group) Co.,
Ltd. According to the deal, Sinosteel will invest about 10.4 billion yuan
to help the group form a ferroalloy capacity of 1.08 million tons per year
and a stainless steel capacity of 800,000 tons; create an annual sales revenue
of more than 20 billion yuan and a profit and tax of about 4.5 billion yuan.
The pricing of listed stocks indicates further falls for dollar metal prices
of gold, aluminium, copper, and silver. -
more
The liquidation last week of Ospraie Management LLC’s flagship hedge
fund made big news internationally but was perhaps a bit underplayed here
in South Africa. -
more
The Cuban nickel production, a major source
of foreign currency on the island, has been temporarily suspended due to
Hurricane "Ike", informed the ministry of basic industry. - translated version
here
Mainstream Media Ignorance About Mining
- Especially Waste Disposal - by Marilyn Scales -
more
At least 128 people were killed and many
more were feared dead in north China after a huge reservoir of iron ore waste,
illegally maintained and turned to sludge by heavy rain, buried a bustling
marketplace in tons of suffocating mud. -
more
Russian government declared plans to combat
monopoly in the commodity segments of MMC move into action. - translated
version here
To keep down steel prices, the central
steel ministry has recommended an additional five percent duty on iron ore
exports. - more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling with no change
. Precious metals are trading lower this
morning, while base price appear to be very quiet. Oil is slightly higher
in response to OPEC announcing a cut in output. Dollar appears to be headed
for another up and down day against the Euro.
Australian Mineral Statistics Quarterly -
pdf here
Commodity
Comments
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices sank once again
yesterday, although they did recover off their worst levels. Copper and ali
both fell to 7 month lows, while the balance of the group, with the exception
of nickel, also sold off sharply. Apart from an initial burst higher approaching
the 1.40 level against the Euro yesterday, the dollar did not have much to
do with yesterday’s selloff, as it was holding at weaker levels for
much of the day. Rather, it was continued economic malaise, coupled with
very soft energy prices that kept metals on the defensive for much of the
day yesterday. ... This morning, we are off to a much calmer start
amid tighter trading ranges, but the mood remains fragile. ... We have
been negative on the metal markets for some time now, but we expect to see
a modest short-covering bounce set in as early as today. We think energy
markets could move somewhat higher over the course of the day, as the OPEC
announcement has yet to fully play itself out on the upside given the element
of surprise it brought to the table. A stronger energy market, coupled with
a possible Lehman “reprieve”, could see metals regroup somewhat
and move higher in sympathy. The dollar is not doing much today, and is holding
steady against the Euro. ... We are currently at $18,500, unchanged,
and quiet." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Steel Guru) It is reported that China's export of finished steel products
surged to 7.68 million tonnes in August, setting a fresh all time high after
hitting 7.21 million tonnes in Jul up by 6.5% MoM.
(Interfax) China exported 7.68 million tons of steel products during August
2008, up 6.52 percent from the previous month, while steel exports over the
first seven months of this year fell 7.2 percent year-on-year to 41.84 million
tons, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs
(GAC) on Sept. 10.
The long-term contract price for global iron ore is projected to rise 30
percent, according to Citibank. -
more
Cuba said on Tuesday that Hurricane Ike
did no serious damage to its nickel mines and processing plants and it expected
to restart production of its top export in a few days. -
more
Supply And Demand Of Main Ferro-Alloys
In Japan For Apr. - Jun. 2008 Quarter = Production Of Manganese Ferro-Alloys
In First Half 2008 Increased -
more
More than 50 people were killed and hundreds
more may be missing in north China after a reservoir of mining waste collapsed,
burying cars and homes under a wall of sludge. -
more
- David Singleton, the chief executive
officer of Poseidon Nickel Ltd., an exploration company chaired by Andrew
Forrest, Australia's richest man, says nickel prices will recover as China
increases its steel-making capacity. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Dollar dipped today on profit taking, and oil traded lower. In world economic
reports issued today, pending home sales fell more than expected in the U.S.,
while wholesale inventories rose faster than expected. Machine tool orders
in Japan are down 14.2% YOY, Germany's trade surplus fell much lower than
expected, and industrial production in the UK fell more than expected. As
far as Dollar-Euro fundamentals went today, it was a case of pick your poison.
The good news for the day came from Canada, where housing starts were stronger
than expected. The metals complex ended in the red, with lead taking a special
beating, down nearly 4%. Indicator charts show nickel traded quietly again
today, much the same as Sucden's day old chart reflects yesterday's trading
went (here), and
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.39/lb . It is worth
noting that LME nickel inventories have grown by nearly 15% since July 21st,
and rolled back over the 50,000 mark for the first time since May 12th. Latest
on Hurricane Ike
here And
the government announced the deficit for this year will more than double
to $407 billion. These numbers do not include the taxpayer cost of the takeover
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Nickel-Major market developments in
August - "Rising supply and disappointing demand from the key stainless steel
sector will continue to pressure nickel prices, some analysts say." -
more
RBS Global Banking & Metals analyst Stephen Briggs - "The market is starting
to realize you can't say globalization and decoupling in one breath and not
be inconsistent."
Comrades Bush, Paulson and Bernanke Welcome You to the USSRA (United Socialist
State Republic of America) -
more
(excerpt) A hefty 76.1 percent growth
was posted in mining and quarrying as a result of the continuing increase
in nickel production. -
more
Stainless Steel Bar From India: Notice of
Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review -
more
Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending September
6, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,062,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 86.4 percent. Production was 2,047,000 tons
in the week ending September 6, 2007, while the capability utilization then
was 86.5 percent. The current week production represents a 0.8 percent increase
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
September 6, 2008 is down 1.2 percent from the previous week ending August
30, 2008 when production was 2,087,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 87.5 percent."
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.09/lb
. While the dollar is trading slightly
higher and base metals are all trading in the red this morning, nickel has
some extra pressure coming from a staggering 1020 tonnes of nickel received
into LME warehouses overnight. Nickel inventories stored in worldwide LME
warehouses went back over the 50,000 tonne mark with today's gain, for the
first time since May 12th.
Nickel Falls in London as Posco Cuts
Stainless-Steel Output - Nickel fell in London as Posco, Asia's largest maker
of stainless steel, plans to extend output cuts for a third month, indicating
weaker demand for the metal. -
more
Posco, Asia's largest maker of stainless steel, plans to extend an output
cut this month on weak demand following similar reductions in July and August.
-
more
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices gave up earlier
gains yesterday, with copper closing modestly lower, apparently unable to
withstand the surge in the dollar and the sharp rally in the US equity markets.
Energy markets also relinquished about $3/brl in gains seen in Sunday night
trading to close modestly lower by Monday. However, by far and away, the
dollar remains the main factor pressuring metals. Some technical analysts
are suggesting that having broken 1.43 support against the Euro, the dollar
could now rise to the 1.32 level by year-end. We don’t rule out such
a target, as with a new US administration elected in less than 60 days, we
could see a more positive psychology develop towards the dollar. More
importantly, the US slowdown now seems to be spreading around the world with
alarming speed, making the case for holding the dollar significantly more
attractive. By the same token, this would only increase the pressure on
commodities heading into Q4. As far as today’s action is concerned,
LME metals sold off sharply in Asian trading before recovering somewhat at
the time of this writing...We are currently at $18,750, down $100, and fairly
quiet today.. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) Jinchuan Group, the country's largest nickel producer, will not
deviate from its original plan to produce 120,000 tons of nickel this year,
despite market reports that it has cut back its production goal, a company
official told Interfax on Sept. 9.
(Steel Guru) Japanese July SS scrap exports up by 7.2% MoM. According to
the statistics of Japan Iron & Steel Federation, Japan has exported 22,539
tonnes of stainless steel scrap in July 2008, up by 7.2% MoM as compared
to 21,008 tonnes in June 2008. Japan exported 183,018 tonnes during January
to July 2008 period.
(press release) Sherritt International Corporation ("Sherritt") reported
today that precautionary measures were implemented at all of its facilities
in Cuba in anticipation of Hurricane Ike. As a result, at the Moa Nickel
facilities no injuries occurred on site and an initial assessment indicates
relatively minor damage. The Moa Nickel facilities are currently idling and
are waiting for utility services to be fully re-established. Finished nickel
and cobalt production from the Fort Saskatchewan refinery is not expected
to be impacted in 2008 due to this hurricane, subject to the duration of
the production interruption at Moa Nickel.
Religare Commodities - "Strengthening US Dollar is making base metals look
unattractive for holders of other currencies. The base metals pack is in
the middle of a seasonal slowdown in demand. Although demand has slowed down
and is expected to come down further, the most important factor i.e., supply
will help to hold prices higher."
Falling world nickel prices due to
a supply glut will persist until more producers cut supplies, the head of
Mincor Ltd, Australia's third largest nickel miner, said on Tuesday. -
more
Mirabela Nickel Ltd., building the world's
third-largest open-pit nickel project in Brazil, agreed to sell 50 percent
of the $387 million mine's concentrate output to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel until
the end of 2014. -
more
Production Activities Of Ferro-Alloys
And Ores At ENRC In 1st Half 2008 = Fe-Cr Production Increased By 11% From
That In 2007, Output Of Cr-Ore Also Increased -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
After the U.S. government seized mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Sunday to prevent trillions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities from
defaulting, markets around the world responded favorably
(here). As one
consultant told Market Watch " "Whether this is the beginning of the end
or merely the end of the beginning is yet to be determined," said Paul Nolte,
director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "However, it is certainly
the hope that this move will begin to calm the housing market and allow mortgage
money to once again flow." UBS warned its readers "The Fannie and Freddie
takeover may provide initial relief to bank stocks and brokers, but credit,
liquidity and economic issues remain." The news also helped the dollar, which,
after faltering on Friday, is trading nearly 2% higher against the Euro at
press time. Oil trading was up earlier on Ike concerns, but has since fallen
into the minus column. Metals ended mixed, with precious metals falling into
the red, and base metals ending mixed. Nickel bucked its negative sentiment
trend of the last few days
(seen here) and with an RSI under 30, the market held
steady today. Indicator charts show the metal traded quietly, within a $.10/lb
range. Concerns over potential damage to Cuban nickel production from Hurricane
Ike, were balanced by yet another very large influx of inventory into LME
warehouses. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$8.53/lb . We
have posted our thoughts on this week's negotiations going on in Thompson,
Canada, between the USW and Vale. We hope we are wrong, but we think the
risk of a strike is high. Hurricane Ike update
here
(Dow Jones) Nickel prices may rebound sharply if stainless steel producers
restock as expected in 4Q, as the decline in LME nickel prices has shuttered
about 10% of global production capacity, says Morgan Stanley. "If this does
indeed materialize when 10% of production capacity is off-line, the price
reaction could be rapid and intense."
(Dow Jones) Jones)--Russia exported 139,600 metric tons of nickel in
January-July, 0.8% more than in January-July 2007, the federal customs service
reported Monday
Higher demand for commodities, which is driving material new investment in
the mining sector, could be adding exuberance to the operations of construction
companies such as Aveng. -
more
Nickle in a Pickle - Of the six major base metals, nickel has been the most
volatile performer over the past several months. -
more
Chinese spot molybdenum oxide prices
fell this week on weaker demand, with offers down to $33.45-33.70/lb on a
CIF basis from $33.80-34/lb CIF last week, industry sources said. -
more
One of China’s biggest corporations
admits it has been on a steep learning curve since it began to build a A$1
billion nickel mine in Papua New Guinea. -
more
What is the universe made of? How did
it come about, and how come we exist? Scientists have no clear answers to
these questions. -
more
The boom in the commodity cycle in the
past few years has put the spotlight on the steel sector. But within this
bigger industry, the smaller segment of stainless steel is less talked about.
- more
Commonly in Aug and Sep, under the influence
of high temperature and abundant rain, China domestic steel transactions
and demand are in off-season in this period. -
more
The head of Eramet SA said the French
government sees the mining group as a strategic interest and wants to keep
a French shareholding base. -
more
The very high demand for natural resources
from China and India has caught global mining markets off guard, Reserve
Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens says. -
more
(Opinion) Next Monday, September 15th,
the current contract between USW Local 6166, representing the Thompson mine,
smelter and refinery workers, and Vale-Inco company will expire. The last
two times this membership sat down with their former owners, Inco, in 2002
and 2005, new contracts were ratified without any strike action taken. But
this time, things are a tad different; with new owners and an entirely new
market. We feel there is a very strong chance we may see a strike here, not
because we have any insider information, but because Vale may have market
motivation not to be as cooperative as they might have been in the past.
Since becoming owners of Inco, Vale has suffered a USW strike at Sudbury,
when an action by USW Local 2020 ended after one day, after USW Local 6500
miners refused to cross the picket line. On that day, nickel traded at $45,600
tonne, and was destined to reach $50,000/tonne just 3 days later. The timing
came as nickel was reaching peaks it had never seen before, and no nickel
miner in their right mind, could afford a day of non-operation with such
profit potential beckoning. The results would have been financially disastrous,
and shareholders would have wanted someone's head on a platter. After the
miners agreed not to cross 2020's picket line, thus directly affecting
production, the game was over.
Putting aside the cooperative nature of the local union, there is a strong
economic factor overshadowing this round of negotiations. While in the past
6 years it has been in the benefit of companies to bend a little more than
normal to keep production rolling, that motivation may not be as prevalent
this time. Using an entirely unscientific process of our own, we come up
with the following. If we were to assume the Thompson mine was going to produce
8000 tonnes of nickel in the third quarter (better than recent quarters),
we would place production at approximately 615 tonnes a week. At $8.50/lb,
this means Vale could lose approximately $11.5 million dollars a week by
a shutdown. A strike at a well established mine, such as Thompson, could
easily cause the price of nickel to rise. Using the 1st quarter production
report from Vale-Inco, where Thompson produced 6700 tonnes, the other Vale
nickel facilities produced 54,100 tonnes. If nickel prices did not move,
the other production facilities, at comparable production levels of 4,161
tonnes per week, would still see make Vale around $78 million dollars in
sales per week. If the price of nickel rose $.50/lb because of the strike,
the company could see $82 million in sales, and if nickel rose by $1/lb,
to $9.50/lb, the company could see $87 million in sales. If nickel were to
rise to $9.75/lb, where it did on August 21st, two days after Xstrata announced
the Falcondo closure, Vale sales could be $89.5 million, and thus, cover
the potential losses of a Thompson strike. Any price above this could mean
the Thompson closure would actually 'make' Vale money. With Falcondo shut
down, and BHP's Kwinana nickel refinery still out of action, and Cuba suffering
unknown damage this week because of Hurricane Ike, it is entirely possible
that prices could rise into the $10/lb range on news of a strike. So, while Canadian nickel miners
have had the upper hand in prior years, the market fundamentals have changed,
and could arguably be in the company's favor. No matter what happens, USW
Local 6500, representing workers in Sudbury, Local 6200 in Port Colburne,
and Local 6480, representing workers at Voisey's Bay, will all be watching.
All see contracts with Vale expire next year.
On a personal note, both parties should keep in mind why Xstrata has been
putting up such 'stiff' competition lately. Might have something to do with
that Viagra clause their union won in February 2007. And while one proud
Inco worker wrote us at the time, claiming Inco miners 'didn't need Viagra'
like their Xstrata counterparts, we can only hope nickel prices aren't the
only thing that have gone flaccid this year. Good luck to both Vale and USW
Local 6166 members in these negotiations. We will be very happy
if you prove us dead wrong on this prediction.
iPods, Environmental Groups and the Mining
Sector – by Paul Stothart -
more
The management committee of Russian miner
Norilsk Nickel has decided to recommend its board spin off just one power
generator, OGK-3, and sell its remaining electricity assets, Norilsk said
on Monday. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.07/lb
higher. Ike is rolling across Cuba,
after entering the country near Holguin, the country's nickel mining region.
Damage is expected to be heavy, but nickel trading is somewhat subdued
as LME warehouses record yet another large inbound flow of nickel overnight.
Dollar is trading higher, by a full percent as we post. Oil is also up on
Ike concerns, and metals, both industrial and precious, are all trading in
the green. Equity markets worldwide are responding positively to the news
of the US government takeover of Fannie and Freddie, and Wall Street is expected
to be in a good mood today.
World Steel Review Iron & Steel Statistics Bureau, September 2008 -
pdf here
Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc.Friday Report -
pdf here
Presentation - Jim Lennon - Steel Raw Materials and Relevant Issues -
pdf here
Commodity
Comments
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "LME prices were hammered on Friday,
with copper leading the way and tumbling to a seven-month low, as demand
worries and a hefty rise in stocks triggered a sharp sell-off. ... It is
a different story this morning, as we are seeing a firmer tone across the
board. Energy prices are up, as Hurricane Ike pushes towards the Gulf of
Mexico, while equity markets are surging, (with Dow futures up 250 points),
on weekend news that the Federal Housing Finance Agency will take over Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac under a so-called conservatorship. ... We suspect that
fund money may leave commodities over the next day or two, especially in
light of the stronger equity markets. In addition, with the dollar pushing
higher, there will be further pressure on metals as well. ... We are
currently at $18,687, up $87, but not doing much on the charts, as we are
seeing a modest sideways drift keep within an overall downtrend. " (read
Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
September is off to a dismal start (for investors) with some thinking that
the wheels have fallen off commodities in general, and base metals in particular,
what with the firmer dollar, and mostly negative assumptions about global
economic growth. -
more
Harry Kazazian built his business on sleeping bags that are made in China
and shipped across the ocean to the United States, but he realized recently
that the math doesn't work anymore. -
more
(MF Global) Jinchuan Group, China's top nickel producer, said it has cut
its nickel production target after delays resulting from switching to a new
smelter, a company official told Reuters on Monday. Nickel production will
now be cut by 10,000 to 20,000 tons, to an overall annual production target
of 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons.
(MF Global) Russian nickel exports to non-CIS countries rose by 0.7% to 140,200
tons in the first seven months of this year, this according to federal customs
data.
Mybuxiu analyst revealed in a report that,
by conducting a survey of the domestic stainless makers' planned production
and existing output, it is found that the stainless industry has presented
an increasing oversupply. -
more
It is reported that the sharp slowdown of the growth in the domestic construction
and real estate industries and the rising raw materials costs in the first
half have driven steelmakers to cut their output, carry out maintenance in
advance or even halt production. -
more
Fishermen and residents in central
Philippines have held a river protest in the Cebu-Bohol Strait today to protest
the offshore mining activities of the Australian firm NorAsia. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Sunday Flash, September 7
Hurricane Ike, having regained Category
4 strength on Friday, is forecast to strike Eastern Cuba sometime Sunday
evening. On its current expected path, Ike could cause damage to Cuba's nickel
producing operations.
Map here NOAA info
here
Ike is also forecast to enter the Gulf, which could cause oil commodity
prices to rise in early week trading, and potentially influence the dollar
and base metal trading. Then again, the attitude toward commodities
is so incredibly bearish these days, we may see a repeat of Gustav, where
a potentially damaging hurricane in the Gulf actually saw the price of oil
decline. Oil prices may get a boost after the rhetoric heated up between
Russian and the US over Georgia this weekend. One Russian official was quoted
in today's 'The Australian' as saying ""What seemed impossible before is
more than possible now when our friends become our enemies and our enemies
our friends. What are American ships doing off our coast? Do you see Russian
warships off the coast of America? Russia will respond. A number of possibilities
are being considered, including hitting America there where it hurts most
- Iran." The Australian reports the Kremlin is discussing sending teams of
Russian nuclear experts to Tehran and inviting Iranian nuclear scientists
to Moscow for training, according to sources close to the Russian military.
The Ike and Iran factors could potentially give the oil bulls some bite this
week. And in other major US economic news, The Fed has officially seized
control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Update: Reuters "Ike
was set to come ashore in Holguin, home of the nickel industry, Cuba's most
important export, then move westward over the heart of the sugar industry.
Holguin's mines and three processing plants in the mountains were shut down."
Headlines today - (MarketWatch) Unemployment rate unexpectedly soars to 6.1%
- Nonfarm payrolls fall by 84,000 in August, more than expected" (Reuters)
U.S. home foreclosures and the rate of homes entering foreclosure rose to
record highs in the second quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said
on Friday. (Reuters) Property fund managers and analysts have written off
all hope of a British commercial real estate recovery in the next
year-and-a-half, consensus data showed on Friday (Reuters) German industrial
output fell by a bigger-than-expected 1.8 percent on the month in July,
undershooting all forecasts, preliminary data showed on Friday. (Reuters)
The economic outlook continues to weaken for the world's seven major economies,
according to July leading indicators published by the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Friday. (Reuters) Oil prices fell
more than $2 on Friday as flagging demand in the United States and other
consumer nations extended crude's losses to 8 percent this week. (Reuters)
Metals fall on demand worries, inventory rise. It appeared this morning that
forex traders felt the economic picture in America was worse than Europe,
which put a halt to the Dollar's rise. But by press time, the dollar was
trading higher again. Most of the precious and base metals spent the
day trading in the red. Nickel was no exception and Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at $8.44/lb
. Down for the week, but as can be seen
by Sucden's day old chart
here, prices are
are about what they were before the news of Falcondo shutting down broke.
Apparently traders, once encouraged by the potential for new supply disruption's,
on the back of others already reported, have also watched LME inventories
grow, reflecting a stronger destruction in demand. Nickel is also caught
up in this dump commodities movement, as the media continues to guide sentiment
with its alarms of a 'commodities bust'.
For those who partake of the suds this weekend, here is a short video about
how to keep from getting sick. Have a safe and relaxing weekend!!
Metals fall on demand worries, inventory
rise - "Industrial metals were hammered on Friday, with copper tumbling to
a seven-month low as demand worries and a hefty rise in inventories triggered
a sell-off." -
more
S&P Primary Credit Analyst Donald Marleau and Secondary Credit Analyst
Alex Herbert forecasts a base-case nickel price of $7.25/lb for this year,
$6.50/lb for 2009, $6/lb in 2010, $5/lb in 2011 and $4/lb in the long term
- more
Falling prices of base metals provide traders on Indian exchanges a window
of opportunity to earn handsome rewards on investment. -
more
Stephen Dennis speaks from experience when he says laying off staff is one
of the hardest things a boss could ever do. -
more
The combination of the secular growth story of China and the other "BRIC"
nations in combination with a weaker US dollar have been the driving force
of the commodities boom of recent years, but the recent correction in prices
across the energy and metals sectors on the back of a stronger greenback
has shown how quickly confidence in the sector has been lost. -
more
This week we review the Chinese nickel
pig iron industry year to date, following the recent sharp fall in global
nickel prices. - more
World market prices of nickel were
increasing till August, 21, 2008 and started to decrease afterwards. Stocks
of nickel on controllable London stock exchange of metals warehouse for the
last month have increased. -
more
Panoramic Resources Limited is pleased
to announce that BHP Billiton Nickel West has formally accepted additional
ore tonnage from the Lanfranchi Project in 2008/09 in excess of the contracted
350,000 tonnes per annum. -
more
We are reaching a point where the mining
supply industry in Sudbury and Northern Ontario is as important for the global
mining industry as the orebodies. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.30/lb
lower. Precious metals are mixed,
while base metals are all trading in the red. Wall Street is waking up to
news that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 84,000 according to a Labor Department
report issued this morning. After the 3% drop in the Dow yesterday, hard
to tell if this news will keep the market southbound, or if traders will
feel the market is oversold. The dollar, at the moment, is trading lower
against the Euro, while a barrel of oil continues to drop.
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "The strong dollar/slow growth backdrop
argues for continued weakness in commodities going into the year-end, as
one of the most spectacular prices runs we have seen in some time --rivaling
the mania of the internet bubble in some respects-- seems to be ending, at
least for now. ... We are currently at $18,600, down $605--with little
news out; nickel seems to be sitting out the worst of the selling. " (read
Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Rusmet) According to the statistics of Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF),
Japan exported 135,541 tons of stainless steel in July, increased by 25.2
percent than 108,221 tons in the same time of last year.
(Financial Times) Growth in Chinese steel consumption is expected to slow
markedly in the second half of this year amid weakening demand from the
construction, household appliance and automobile industries, according to
industry experts.
(BG) Nickel's global surplus will be 6,000 tons this year, down from 31,000
tons forecast in January after low prices led to output cuts, analysts from
Macquarie Group Ltd. said yesterday
(Ferroalloy) New Caledonia nickel cobalt producer,Goro Nickel plan to produce
16,000 tons of nickel metal in 2009,which is the first year of mine production.
The spokesman said that Goro Nickel's new ore processing plant has recently
been put into production. They plan to operate one of the total three production
line in 2009.
(FN News) Nickel currently has the highest level of LME stocks, but supply
cutbacks in recent weeks have improved sentiment and lowered stockpiles,
with some recovery in stainless steel demand likely, Standard Chartered expects
double digit price gains in the second half when compared to the first six
months of this year. This optimism should prove to be short-lived though
and it sees prices falling from a forecast average of US$24,208 per tonne
this year to US$22,250 per tonne in 2009. Barclays Capital has an almost
identical outlook for the market and expects stronger prices over the next
few months, but then a decline into 2009. Its forecasts are US$24,173 per
tonne this year and US$21,500 next year.
(Dow Jones) Standard Bank technical analyst Darran Graham maintains view
that nickel is forming a base for move higher, recommends keeping long bias;
"renewed gains beyond $21,500 will yield a test of $22,440 and, once this
barrier is breached, the topside opens up for a retest of the $24,900 corrective
high recorded on June 13." Warns break below $18,000 would undermine bullish
scenario.(
Nickel Supply Is Being Whirled In Minus
Factors = China Reduces To Produce Ni-Contained Pig Iron And Fe-Ni, Progresses
Of New Nickel Projects Are Marked -
more
BHP Billiton will continue development
work at a Philippine nickel project despite a long-running dispute with its
local partner, the minister in charge of the mining sector said on Friday.
- more
Brazil's Vale, which offers cheaper iron
ore to Chinese steel makers than BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, wants to lift
its prices to match what Australian mines have won. -
more
Chinese steel mills yesterday prepared to rebuff top iron-ore miner Vale’s
demand for an unprecedented price increase halfway through the annual contract
cycle. - more
Vale's demands for an unprecedented mid-cycle hike in term iron ore prices
could stem a slide in the Indian spot market, which offers cheap supply for
Chinese mills seeking to undermine the Brazilian miner's position. -
more
BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc suspended all its iron ore mining in Australia on Friday,
shutting in a third of the country's production after the second mine worker
death in the past 10 days, raising broader safety concerns in its mines.
-
more
China's Ministry of Commerce said on its
website this week that Chinese ferroalloy exporters are allowed to approach
their local authorities to apply for export licenses beginning September
1. -
more
The government of Kazakhstan has proposed
to set mineral extraction tax rates for oil producers at 7-20 percent of
crude's market value from 2011, with higher rates applied to larger producers,
according to a draft law. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Forex - "The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since January
on Thursday after the chairman of euro zone finance ministers Jean-Claude
Juncker said that the single currency was still effectively overvalued."
MarketWatch - "The Labor Department reported jobless claims rose last
week to a seasonally adjusted 444,000, up 15,000 from the prior week. The
data marked a shift after three weeks of declines, and surprised analysts
who expected a slight drop." MarketWatch - "U.S. private-sector employment
fell 33,000 in August, according to the ADP employment index released Thursday."
Wall Street was put it into an immediate bad mood with the employment news,
and at press was down nearly 300 points. Oil and the dollar did an about
face since our morning update, with oil falling and the dollar climbing,
resuming the sentiment of late. Metals were all green across the board this
morning, but they all ended either mostly flat or down. Nickel was one of
those who fell today, and indicator charts shows the metal was holding an
earlier morning gain till mid afternoon, when it succumbed to the dollar
rally. Tin actually gained a few bucks on the day, and once again, edged
nickel out for the most expensive metal slot. Dow Jones reports three month
nickel ended the day at $8.71/lb
. In other news, Russia's central
bank sold up to $4 billion on Thursday to stop the rouble's fall. IMF spokesman
Masood Ahmed told a news briefing "We have been below the consensus forecasts
this year and we do think there are risks to the outlook this year, but we
do see the beginning of a gradual recovery in 2009." A study released today
found no link between the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR) and autism.
The Washington Post reports - "The Yale School of Medicine have linked a
chemical found in everyday plastics to problems with brain function and mood
disorders in monkeys -- the first time the chemical has been connected to
health problems in primates." Vice President Dick Cheney is in Ukraine today
as part of a tour of several former Soviet republic's. Speaking of things
that just won't go away, Tropical Storm Hannah
(here), Hurricane Ike
(here) and Tropical Storm Josephine
(here) are all headed west.
For our Australian readers, who will begin their weekend before we are back,
we are posting a video that is being passed around the world as real. This
is actually a "spoof" of an Australian interview and the legislator in the
interview, is actually an actor! Very funny bit though.
The London Metal Exchange will start
trading cobalt and molybdenum futures next year, offering manufacturers of
iPods, laptops and steel products protection from price swings through an
exchange for the first time. -
more
Commodity
Comments
(Chinese metals site) Chinese price comparison - HC FeCr min C6-8.5%
Chrome alloy May 7, 2008 $3.00-$3.20/lb FOB China main port / July
3, 2008 $2.85/lb-$2.95/lb / Sept 3, 2008 $2.00/lb-$2.10/lb
CLSA said spot ore prices fell by 17% month-on-
month by the end of August as more than 74mt of imported ore continued to
congest China's major ports. -
more
The toll Eskom's electricity crisis
took on SA's mining industry went largely unnoticed amid substantial profit
increases, based on strong metals prices in the first half of this year,
that companies posted recently. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.07/lb
higher. In a switch from the last few days,
the dollar is trading lower this morning, after the European Central Bank
kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent as expected. Crude oil is
trading a tad higher as Hurricane Ike strengthens to a category 4 and shows
a possibility of working its way into the Gulf
(here). .
Allegheny Ludlum October Stainless Surcharge -
here
Germany's Edelstahl September Stainless Surcharge -
here
Commodity
Comments
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - " Copper managed to hang on to its
gains yesterday, ad did other metals, but ali was on the defensive, and has
still been unable to post any notable advance of late. Outside of ali, the
stronger dollar kept the breadth of the modest rallies somewhat in check,
as did falling oil prices and rising LME stocks. However, the big "bear in
the room" is the uncertain outlook for global commodity demand, a variable
we suspect is gaining in prominence as the US slowdown starts to spread into
other corners of the world. We did not see any unusual volatility following
the news that Ospraie was shutting its fund after severe losses. We suspect
that most of the funds' positions (except for the more illiquid ones) were
already closed out, and so the announcement itself was a non-event as far
as commodity markets were concerned. Metals are broadly higher today as a
slight dip in the dollar and an uptick in energy prices is giving the complex
some upside breathing room. However, we remain cautious about the advance,
and would rather be selling into rallies as opposed to buying the dips.
... We are currently at $19,685, up $100, and fairly quiet."(read
Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(China report) Due to the weak demand in stainless steel, HC ferrochrome
prices are forecast to stay at current levels in September. China's volume
of ferrochrome imports was 99.133 metric tons in July, a 0.73% decrease compared
to June levels. China's imports of chrome ore increased by 170,000 tons and
stock in ports is adequate. Chrome ore prices are expected to drop slightly
in September.
(Dow Jones) Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce's (RIO) appetite
for acquisitions has faded since the company's failed pursuit of Anglo-Swiss
group Xstrata PLC (XTA.LN), Vale's CEO told the Estado news agency late Tuesday.
In an exclusive interview with Estado, Vale Chief Executive Roger Agnelli
said that "today, for us, Xstrata is in the past."
(Dow Jones) Jones)--Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce
(RIO) said Wednesday that it was "unaware" of a proposed 20% iron-ore hike
that a report said the company requested from Chinese steelmakers.
China's Imports Of Nickel Ore In July 2008
Decreased To Half Of That In June = Sharp Fall Of Nickel Price Caused
Considerable Reduction On Production Of Ni-Contained Pig Iron -
more
The European Commission's anti-trust review
into BHP's bid for Rio Tinto has been suspended pending further details from
the miners. -
more
Molybdenum prices have averaged $30/lb for
the past 3 ½ years, reflecting tight inventory levels, production cost
increases and surging consumption of specialty steels that are made with
the alloying metal. Between 1982 and 2004, the alloying metals had cost an
average $4/lb. - more
The Indian Railways: A Mighty Market for
Stainless Steel - pdf
here
2007 was a successful year for the whole
CIS steel sector. CIS countries produced about 124 mt of rolled steel products,
thus reaching former USSR production levels not seen since the end of the
1980s. - more
Chinese steel mills prepared on Thursday
to rebuff top iron ore miner Vale's demand for an unprecedented price increase
halfway through the annual contract cycle. -
more
International steel producer ArcelorMittal
on Wednesday said that it was certain global steel pricing would continue
to remain structurally strong, owing to the cost increases in raw materials
and steel equipment. -
more
Based on the Commerce Department’s most
recent Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data, the American Iron
and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that steel import permit applications
for the month of August totaled 2,363,000 net tons (NT). -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
MarketWatch - "The Commerce Department reported factory orders rose by 1.3%
in July, better than the 0.8% forecast by economists." - " The weak euro-zone
outlook was underlined by a larger-than-expected 0.4% monthly drop in July
retail sales, which made for a 2.8% annual decline. Market expectations were
for a 0.2% monthly drop and a 2.1% year-on-year fall. Second-quarter euro-zone
gross domestic product data saw second-quarter gross domestic product unrevised
with a 0.2% quarterly drop, while the annual figure was revised down to 1.4%
growth from a previous estimate of 1.5%." On this economic news, the dollar
traded higher, and crude oil lower. Last Thursday we wrote "The path of the
dollar appears to be guided by fears of who is economically worse off these
days - the US or Europe. Economic news from both regions is ugly, and depending
on which is worse for the day, benefits the others currency." Today, MarketWatch
reporters William Watts and Lisa Twaronite wrote, "The dollar's strength
against major counterparts has come largely amid indications the rest of
the world is succumbing to the global slowdown, rather than ideas the U.S.
economic outlook has turned decidedly rosy, strategists said." I guess
professional "strategists" don't use the word "ugly" to describe economic
conditions! Oh well, we tried. Metals were mixed today, with precious metals
trading lower, and base metals trading higher, save aluminum. Indictor charts
show the nickel trading trend spent much of the day bullish, and ended that
way. The day old Sucden chart shows the negative sentiment that we saw yesterday
(here). Nimit Khamar showed the RSI at a 10.1 reading,
which reflected today's market opened seriously oversold. Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at $8.87/lb
, and only $.09/lb higher than tin,
which appears to want the most expensive base metal slot back. In France,
the 35 hour work week, the envy to the rest of the world, is under attack
here. Russia says
it will withdraw from Georgia only after international peacekeepers are in
place. Tropical storms Hannah, Ike and Josephine are inbound in the Atlantic.
And Andy Xie, a Chinese commentator writing in the Chinese periodical 'Caijing',
"China's stock market is a big failure. The Shanghai A-shares index surged
from 1,000 to 6,000 in two years and then dropped to 2,400 in one year. You
can't blame people for thinking that China's is a Mickey Mouse market. China
should completely revamp its market to prevent future crisis like this one.
The most important change should be to disentangle the government from
micro interventions in the market. When laws are laid down, the market should
function on its own. It is the only way to have a healthy
market." Did we mention that was written in China, not Wall Street?
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel
producer, may lower its 2008 production target by 4 percent after prices
plunged, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. -
more
Brazilian miner Vale has demanded that
Chinese iron ore customers pay an additional 20 percent for iron ore from
Sept. 1, the Steel Business Briefing reported on Wednesday, citing a company
e-mail. -
more
Ferroalloy prices in China are likely to
fall further on a weak steel market before stabilizing later this year, Zhang
Zengchan, secretary general of the China Ferroalloys Industry Association,
said Wednesday. -
more
Xstrata Plc has tabled its offer to some
Japanese utilities for thermal-coal term contracts starting in October at
$175 a tonne, up 40 percent from April, prompting some firms to balk at the
hefty increase.
Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending August
30, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,087,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 87.5 percent. Production was 2,075,000 tons
in the week ending August 30, 2007, while the capability utilization then
was 87.7 percent. The current week production represents a 0.6 percent increase
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
August 30, 2008 is down 1.8 percent from the previous week ending August
23, 2008 when production was 2,125,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 89.1 percent."
Firms such as aluminium giant Rusal want
to change how business views Russia. But corporate governance and corruption
problems dog their progress. -
more
Some of my readers are in the fastener
distribution industry, so here are some articles of possible interest.
DXP Enterprises Inc., a supplier of industrial equipment and services to
the oil and gas industries, has completed its $65 million purchase of PFI
LLC. - more(you
may not have heard of DXP but you probably have PFI. They own Vertex
Stainless)(DXP locations map -
here)
Industrial and construction supplies distributor Fastenal Company, Winona,
MN, has agreed to settle a class action wage-hour lawsuit that claims Fastenal
misclassified Fastenal employees as assistant managers and as a result those
employees were denied overtime as required under the Fair Labor Standards
Act and several state statutes. -
more
In August, Lawson Products Inc. settled a pending lawsuit with the federal
government by agreeing to a $30 million payment. -
more
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.06/lb
higher. Crude oil is trading lower and US
dollar is trading higher, much the same as it has recently. Precious metals
are lower, while base metals are mostly slightly higher and quiet. Indicator
charts show nickel sentiment has been mostly positive early, but recent price
spikes have made the market vulnerable to a sharp correction.
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "LME prices dropped yet again on
Tuesday, weighed down by sagging oil prices and a strengthening dollar. However,
values rebounded off their worst levels of the day as oil recovered. ...
Nevertheless, with LME stocks increasing, the dollar rising, and global macro
economic data remaining weak, each bounce in metals, mainly in copper, seems
to mark successively lower highs. This is not particularly healthy, and suggests
further technical weakness ahead. In addition, we suspect that on a fundamental
basis, metals will again be vulnerable once a potentially new variable is
added to the existing bearish mix and starts getting discounted-- namely,
that Chinese demand will not be seeing the post-Olympics bounce many are
courting on. ... This morning we are off to a mixed start in LME metals,
with copper slightly higher, but ali and zinc both off. There are modest
gains in the rest of the complex, but trading is quiet, with trading ranges
relatively narrow. ... We are currently at $19,475, up $45, and fairly
quiet." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) China's ferrochrome prices will remain steady at current high
levels in the fourth quarter on high production costs from chrome ore and
power, while rebounding demand from the downstream stainless steel industry
will also support ferrochrome prices for the remainder of the year, industry
insiders told Interfax on Sept. 2.
(Dow Jones) Despite production cuts by major producers Tisco, Baosteel and
Posco in June and July, China's 2008 stainless steel production is still
expected to rise by around 8% to 8.2 million tons vs 7.6 million tons reported
in 2007, says Macquarie Research."
The decline in commodities prices to a 6 ½ month low claimed its first
big victim on Wednesday, as Ospraie Management said its flagship commodities
hedge fund had collapsed due to the falling value of its energy and mining
holdings. -
more
(Interfax) The United States is likely to levy a 22.03 percent anti-dumping
duty on imports of China's circular welded austenitic stainless steel pressure
pipe, however, Chinese producers and exporters will not feel too much heat
from the move, industry analysts told Interfax on Sept. 3.
China's Imports Of Nickel Ore In July 2008
Decreased To Half Of That In June = Sharp Fall Of Nickel Price Caused
Considerable Reduction On Production Of Ni-Contained Pig Iron -
more
Review of Chinese nickel pig iron and stainless
steel output - "Chinese recoverable nickel from pig nickel up Jan to July
but expected to be unchanged for the full year, while some steel prices reduced
and iron ore prices fall. Stainless steel output still rising." -
more
Philippine nickel ore exports to
China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, plunged 96 percent in July
as lower prices of refined nickel and energy shortages cut production of
nickel pig iron. -
more
Capesize spot iron ore freight rates
took a further dip this week in the absence of spot cargoes, ship brokers
said Tuesday. -
more(BDI down another 320 points today)
World No. 2 iron ore miner Rio Tinto
Ltd/Plc has declared force majeure on some of its iron ore shipments after
an accident involving a rail car damaged an ore dumper at an Australian port,
the company said on Wednesday. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Oil traded lower today, selling at update time around $109/barrel. With the
oil trading as low as $105.50 this morning, the US dollar gained. And with
oil down, Wall Street opened very bullish, although since the ISM manufacturing
report was issued, showing the index slipped to 49.9%, its first decline
below 50% since May, the market has backed off from some of its initial
exuberance. Metals, precious and base, traded lower.... except for nickel.
Sucden's day old chart
(here) shows yesterday's fire sale pushed the market in
to a heavily oversold situation, according to the RSI and Stochastic readings.
Indicator charts show there was an early afternoon spurt, which mostly faded
by days end. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the days trading
at $8.81/lb .
Indicator chart is also somewhat bearish leading into tomorrow, with sentiment
in the negative for much of today's late trading. Nickel, however, appears
to want to retain its most expensive LME metal, now that it has reclaimed
that title. Gustav, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin's "storm of the century",
turned out to be, well let's be nice about it, not quite that bad. And now
that it is gone, attention shifts back to the Atlantic where Tropical Storms
appear to be lining up, with Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forming.
(here)
Austenitic Stainless Steel Prices to
Stay Low Through 2008 - "Stainless steel prices have had a very turbulent
twelve months. Since August 2007, cold rolled coil type 304 transaction values
in North America have dropped by approximately $US1650 per tonne, EU figures
have plunged by over $US1150 per tonne and Asian numbers have moved down
by almost $US800 per tonne. Hot rolled coil and plate recorded similar declines
in all regions, with the exception of Europe where basis values for plate
reduced by a greater amount." -
more
Weaker Commodity prices and higher costs are starting to take a toll on the
mining industry as the billions of dollars being spent on new projects could
take years to recoup. -
more
(Stuart
Burns) - The so called decoupling of emerging markets from developed
markets, that concept much bandied about in the press a year back has been
shown to be just another bright idea, with little foundation in reality.
With the many benefits that globalisation has brought to both developed and
emerging markets on the back of improved communications, logistics and supply
chain management has also come the close alignment of economies around the
world.
Continued deterioration of economic conditions
added to seasonal and cyclical weakness for metals shipments in June. -
more
It seems that an expectation to rise
price of South African charge chrome for shipments in October to December
2008 quarter has receded. Depending on a further movement of the market
situation, stainless steel mills are supposed to negotiate with suppliers
on a request to reduce the price. -
more
A Canadian judge delayed by 13 months
the trial of a lawsuit claiming nickel producer Inco Ltd. polluted the properties
of Ontario residents, a lawyer for the plaintiffs said. -
more
The world-wide boom in commodities has
seen profits for Canadian mining companies soar and shareholders are loving
it. - more
In a bid to encourage economic development and defend Canadian sovereignty
throughout the North, the federal government announced a new program of
geo-mapping for Canada’s Arctic. -
more
Take a convicted heroin dealer, a
part-owner of the Perth Glory and an ageing rock star. What could the three
men possibly have in common? -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.02/lb
higher. Nickel traders are playing
tug of war this morning. After yesterday's decrease, indicator charts show
the market has so far this morning, slumped by around $300/tone, then increased
by around $700/tonne, and has since slipped back to where it started. Crude
oil continues its slide this morning, while the dollar continues to gain
against the Euro. Dow Jones reports "Euro Dips Below $1.4500 - First Time
Since Feb 12". The rest fo the metals complex is down as well.
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "The wheels seem to be coming off
the commodity markets, with base metals down again today after selling off
sharply yesterday--this despite the US Labor Day holiday that had many players
away. Crude oil is leading the retreat, as Hurricane Gustav failed to live
up to its earlier billing. Hyped to be the “mother of all storms”
at one point during the weekend by New Orleans’s mayor no less, the
system finally made landfall yesterday as a category 2 system, and apart
from causing isolating flooding and power disruptions, it finished as only
a pale shadow of Katrina. As a result, crude oil prices have lost some $7/brl
since Friday, and there are steep losses in product and natural gas prices
as well. Not helping the commodity bulls either, is the fact that the
dollar’s advance is resuming, with the greenback now below 146 against
the Euro.... Many LME metals, as our charts show, are preparing to retest
key support levels, and depending on how things go, there is a chance we
could bust through them. ... We are currently at $19,250, down $250. Similar
to lead, our chart shows that nickel has broken above a downchannel, (in
red), but now seems to be heading back down for another retest of the line."
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Vale) The company's second quarter output was 69,000 tons nickel, reflecting
an increase of 11% over the same period last year(62,500 tons).
BHP Billiton, the world's biggest
miner, has scaled back operations at a nickel project in the Philippines
due to a dispute with its local partner, Lito Atienza, secretary for environment
and natural resources, told Reuters. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Monday, September 1 (US markets closed for Labor
Day)
Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page -
(chart of dollar index)
(Marketwatch) "Crude oil fell to its lowest in more than four months after
Hurricane Gustav weakened, easing concern of widespread damage to drilling
rigs and refineries." (Forbes) "The British pound dropped sharply against
the dollar after U.K. Chancellor Alistair Darling said the country's economic
environment was the most difficult in 60 years. Darling said in a Saturday
interview with The Guardian that the current economic times were "arguably
the worst they've been in 60 years. And it's going to be more profound and
long-lasting than people thought." The Euro was also weaker against the dollar.
(Forbes) "Numbers released on Monday show euro zone manufacturing activity
shrank slightly less rapidly last month than in July when it hit a five-year
low, but the sector was still hurt by the strong euro and high energy costs.
'The data run ... has been, if anything, slightly better than expected but
this reflects the pessimism of expectations more than anything with all still
implying a significant state of underlying weakness,' said Nomura's Maloney."
All metals were down, some heavier than others. Tin fell sharper than nickel,
and nickel moved back to being the most expensive metal traded on the London
Metal Exchange. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.75/lb
.
Copper falls as dollar gains, nickel
down 5.2 pct - "Copper futures fell 3.2 percent on Monday under pressure
from gains in the dollar, rising London Metal Exchange stocks and worries
about demand. -
more
Commodity
Comments
(Bloomberg) Manufacturing in China contracted for a second month in August,
underscoring the risk of a slump in the world's fourth-biggest economy. The
Purchasing Managers' Index was a seasonally adjusted 48.4, unchanged from
July, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed
statement. -
more
(Dow Jones) - A retreat in crude oil prices, a stronger dollar and a
weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data pressured base metals lower
Monday.
(Dow Jones) - Nickel prices are unlikely to rebound until 4Q as LME inventories
continue to rise and demand has yet to recover in the stainless steel market,
says Barclays Capital. Notes LME stocks come in up 1,206 tons Monday to the
highest level in two months. Stock increases are more than offsetting the
supportive impact of recently announced delays in nickel projects and
expansions."
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.26/lb
lower. With a gain over 1200 tonnes
of nickel arriving in LME warehouses since Friday's report, traders have
soured on nickel once again. And while nickel is being hit with a sell-pff,
the base metals complex as a whole is lower, with tin selling off faster,
and thus nickel has returned to the most expensive metal traded on the LME.
At least, for the moment. Sucden's chart was giving no clear directional
indicators coming into the day
(here), and metals
seem to be taking their cue from today's stronger dollar. U.S. markets are
closed for Labor Day.
Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - LME prices fell modesty on Friday,
as worries over Chinese end-user demand, coupled with rising stocks, weighed
on prices. However, declines were the sharpest in lead, where prices came
off by about 5% after several days of gains. With US market closed today,
trading volumes are on the light side, but LME prices are nevertheless lower,
as the complex comes under pressure from lower energy prices and a stronger
dollar. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) Deutsche Bank said in a note that a fourth quarter resurgence
in global stainless steel production was in the offing, and this would prompt
a rebound in the nickel price in the near term. "Inventories at global
distribution centers are running low of higher quality stainless brands,
and we believe they will seek to restock, as many end-use applications require
these qualities," the note said Deutsche tips the nickel price to track back
up to $24,000/ton, the level where production of Chinese nickel pig iron,
a primary nickel substitute, will become profitable again."
(Dow Jones) Nickel Likely To Trade In $17,640-$22,050/Ton Range-Macquarie
- Nickel prices could be rangebound going forward, with any tightness in
the market likely to be short-lived due to the ability of Chinese nickel
pig iron producers to ramp up production quickly if prices rise, Macquarie
Research said in a report dated Monday."
(excerpt) OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of the metal,
has said it may halve the 11,400 member work force at one of its two largest
Russian units to cut costs. -
more
Prices of ammonium nitrate, used in making explosives for the mining industry,
and fertilizers, have risen 65% to just under $550 a metric ton since the
start of the year, and are likely to stay at elevated levels for the long
term, UBS said in a note Monday. -
more
The stainless steel crude steel production output at Japan’s seven major
manufacturers in July 2008 saw a decrease of 9% MoM as compared to June 2008.
- more
Nickel prices could plunge another 25 percent by the end of this year, unless
orders from stainless steel producers in Europe pick up in the next two to
three weeks, industry sources and analysts say. -
more
UBS believes that lower commodity prices could prove attractive to consumers,
resulting in a modest recovery. Compounded with continuing supply growth
concerns, higher metal prices may be realized. -
more
Taiwan’s major stainless steel
manufacturer, Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco), has announced that its domestic
and export 300 and 400 series stainless steel prices will remain unchanged
for September. - more
BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) said Monday
work on the proposed Hallmark nickel laterite project in the Philippines
has been interrupted due to a dispute with a local shareholder. -
more
Management at the Ramu Nickel project in
Papua New Guinea’s Madang province denies that there’s been a work
stoppage at the mine site. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
All prices shown on this page are indications only. "A Guide To
LME
Trading"...pdf here "The ABCs of a Metals Exchange"
...pdf here(Molybdenum
prices are for molybdenum oxide, an ingredient and major price factor in
316 stainless) (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated
daily before 8 am CST and before 1 pm CST weekdays -
DisclaimerCandlestick Pattern Dictionary
here / Intro to Candlesticks
here Original content and opinions copyright
www.estainlesssteel.com. Note - For real time and official
LME prices, LME requires a user subscribe to an authorized LME vendor.
Daily
Nickel/Stainless Wrap-up
(
Reports
Commodity/Economic Comments
India's iron ore exports are set to fall
by as much as a third in the year to March due to poor global demand, and
overseas sales will be at a lower average price, a senior mines ministry
official said on Tuesday. -
World market prices for ferrochromium
decreased. According to Metal Pages, average spot price of low-carbon
ferrochromium (content of chrome 65 %), and high-carbon ferrochromium (on
the basis of 60 % of chrome) in the market of Europe for the last month has
decreased. - 
Mining honeymoon may be over - Australia's
mining boom is looking vulnerable now the US Government's $US700 billion
financial rescue package has been struck down, analysts warn. -
China's Shagang Ends Bid For Brazil Ore
Co Namisa - Report - A Chinese consortium led by steelmaker Shagang has abandoned
its attempt to buy Brazilian iron ore miner Nacional Minerios, the Estado
de Sao Paulo newspaper reported Tuesday. -
Nickel Drops to 2 1/2 Year Low on Outlook
for Slowing Demand - Nickel slumped to the lowest in two and a half years
on speculation slowing global economies will further cut demand, after the
U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion plan to rescue the
financial system. -
Since nickel and stainless steel prices
have dropped a lot in Taiwan’s domestic market, Taiwan’s Ta Chen
International, Inc. said that they can only wish that the stainless steel
market will have the chance to revive in the first quarter of 2009. -
"Base metals prices (especially zinc and
nickel) have lost considerable ground in recent months and are expected to
move irregularly lower over the next several years alongside slower global
growth and new mine development," Scotiabank economist Patricia Mohr predicted
Monday. - 
The head of China's leading steel company
says the Chinese economy and steel industry are both "heading for a downward
slide", as hopes fade that China can insulate Australia's resource-dependent
economy from the widening global downturn. -
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending September
27, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 1,986,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 83.2 percent. Production was 2,047,000 tons
in the week ending September 27, 2007, while the capability utilization then
was 86.5 percent. The current week production represents a 3.0 percent decrease
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
September 27, 2008 is down 2.1 percent from the previous week ending September
20, 2008 when production was 2,027,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 85.0 percent.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
The Cuban nickel industry is still operating
at below capacity more than three weeks after taking a direct hit from Hurricane
Ike, according to local media from the nickel region of eastern Holguin province.
-
Finnish miner Talvivaara reiterated on
Monday that output at its Sotkamo nickel mine in northern Finland would begin
next month. -
Global Steel Price Down by 10% Since July
- In the US, underlying demand from the manufacturing and building
industries is weak. Customers started to hold back from placing orders in
August, expecting transaction prices to erode. -
Norilsk Nickel’s conflict between
its two biggest shareholders – Interros of Vladimir Potanin and Rusal
of Oleg Deripaska - continued to dominant headlines in Russia. -
Will the Ontario Government Strengthen
or Hold Back the Province’s Booming Mining Sector - by Gregory Reynolds
- 
The Goro Nickel company in New Caledonia
has signed a landmark agreement with the Kanak population and the activist
group, Rheebu Nuu. -
Price Of Domestic Ni-Based Stainless Scrap
Is Reduced By 30,000 / Ton In 2nd Half September = Stainless Steel Mills,
In Order To Cope With Sharp Fall Of Nickel Price -
Listed Widespread Portfolios’ largest
investment, Asian Mineral Resources, has suspended the development of its
Ban Phuc nickel mine in Vietnam. -
IG Metall - the most powerful union on
the Continent - has demanded a hefty 8 per cent pay increase for 3.6 million
workers in the metallurgy and electronics industries. -
higher. Marketwatch 's main headline
this morning "Bears sharpen their claws". Congress' inability to reach, what
appeared for most of the day, to be an inevitable agreement yesterday, put
many traders in an foul mood, and when news that Washington Mutual had
been seized by U.S. regulators later that evening, in what will be the U.S.
largest-ever bank failure, the mood went from foul to down-right ugly. World
markets are mostly down (chart
The president director of PT Aneka
Tambang (Antam), Alwinsyah Loebis, said here on Thursday the company planned
to increase its nickel production from 17,000 tons to 18,000 tons to anticipate
a drop in the sale value as a result of declining prices. -
Alloy surcharges on European flat rolled
stainless steel will rise for austenitic grades in October for the first
time in months, figures so far announced indicate. -
International steel markets seem to
be stable for now and the steel prices have logically declined from the abnormal
highs, said Zaigham Rizvi, Director Projects, Tuwairqi Steel Mills Limited
. -
Eti Krom / Turkey Reduces Price Of Chrome
Ore For Shipments In Q4 / 08 = Eti Krom Views As Fundamentals For Chrome
Will Still Maintain Firm Tone -
Seven mining projects are expected
to start production next year despite likely delays in the infusion of additional
investments into some of these ventures because of the global financial crisis,
according to Mines and Geosciences Bureau data. -
Why stainless steel prices are
NOT dropping as fast as nickel - in simple terms. The easiest way is to do
a comparison. Here is our unscientific formula. 304 Stainless Steel contains
a minimum of 18% chrome, 8% nickel, and around 70% iron. It takes two tons
of iron ore to make a ton of iron. Thus, in 100 pounds of 304 stainless steel,
we have at least 8 pounds of nickel, 18 pounds of chrome, and around 140
pounds of iron ore. Using this formula, we can determine that a combination
of these three items would have cost a total of $78.70 in January 2006 when
nickel was $6.60/lb, chrome was $.5388/lb, and iron ore was $255/GT. In January
of this year, nickel was $12.56/lb, chrome at $1.75/lb, and iron was $420/GT.
The cost of these three items in 100 lbs of 304 would have run $158.65. Thus
in two years, the material cost of these three items had nearly doubled.
In August, the most recent month we have monthly averages of the ingredients
to work with, nickel was running $8.59/lb X 8, chrome was at $2.2463 X 18,
and iron ore was running $860/GT div 2204.6 X 140, giving us a total of
$163.78... a total higher than that of January this year. Although nickel
has dropped this year, from January's average of $12.56/lb to August's $8.59/lb,
the increase in iron ore and chrome have more than offset. Obviously this
is a very crude formula. And it explains why we follow iron ore, ferrochrome,
and molybdenum news closely.
Bangkok Post reported that Thainox Stainless
Steel Plc expects to revise down its sales volume target this year to 180,000
tonnes as clients are reluctant to place orders due to volatile stainless
steel prices. - 
POSCO, the world's No.4 steelmaker,
expects steel prices to stay firm, amid rising concerns that falling prices
in China on weak domestic consumption may spread across the world, a senior
official said. -
Spain's Acerinox, the world's biggest producer
of stainless steel, has yet to see the pick-up in demand that it has been
expecting to occur this month, a senior company official said on Thursday.
- 
In the world of base metals, molybdenum
has traditionally been considered simply a byproduct of copper. But with
the boom of the steel market, this alloying metal has seen unprecedented
growth in its demand and prices in recent years. -
Zambia's sole nickel mine is stockpiling
nickel and cobalt concentrate to export to China before the end of the year,
the mine's owners said on Friday. -
. Precious metals are trading lower this
morning, while base price appear to be very quiet. Oil is slightly higher
in response to OPEC announcing a cut in output. Dollar appears to be headed
for another up and down day against the Euro.
One of China’s biggest corporations
admits it has been on a steep learning curve since it began to build a A$1
billion nickel mine in Papua New Guinea. -
The toll Eskom's electricity crisis
took on SA's mining industry went largely unnoticed amid substantial profit
increases, based on strong metals prices in the first half of this year,
that companies posted recently. -
Some of my readers are in the fastener
distribution industry, so here are some articles of possible interest.
