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6-30 |
LME nickel recouped its losses from yesterday, plus some, closing at
$6.86/lb.
* According to petrochemical giant BP, the world's oil reserve will
last another 41 years at current level's of production.
* LME nickel trading is light this AM selling at $6.53/lb at 8:30
AM EST. |
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6-29
 |
LME nickel dropped on speculation about tomorrow's announcement from
the US on the expected increased in the prime lending rate of 1/4 point.
Closed down at $6.52/lb
* LME nickel current price not available this AM, and inventory
nudged down yesterday by 78 tonnes to stand at 8,460 tonnes. |
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6-28 |
LME nickel closed lower today, ending the day at
$6.68/lb.
* China announces investment into its steel industry increased
by 76.6% in the first 5 months of 2004. Steps have been taken to slow this
growth down.
* All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week as interest
rates are expected to increase by at least a quarter point on Wednesday.
* LME nickel inventories fell by 90 tonnes Friday, and prices
were at $6.74/lb at 8:30 AM EST. |
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6-25 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.78/lb.
* Merrill Lynch lowered its forecast for 2004 nickel prices
from $6.50/lb to $6/lb yesterday. It also estimates nickel in 2005
to run $5.75/lb.
* Man Financial is advising nickel demand has fallen sharply
in China in 2004. While exporting more than double than last year, it has
imported nearly 1/2 as much during the first five months of 2004.
* LME nickel was selling at $6.78/lb at 8:30 EST. Nickel inventories
lost 90 tonnes yesterday, after its first increase in weeks the day before. |
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6-24 |
Trading on nickel was erratic today, with an early sell-off, then investors
bought in. In the end, prices gained to end at
$6.79/lb.
* YUSCO of Taiwan has announced to its customers that there will be
a price increase on stainless steel for July - with the exact increase yet
to be determined.
* LME inventories of nickel grew for the first time in weeks, gaining
744 tonnes to hit 8,724 tonnes of stock. This morning LME nickel seems to
be in flux, and was at $6.68/lb at 8:30 EST |
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6-23 |
News LME nickel inventories actually grew today but the market shrugged
it off, closing at $6.77/lb.
* According to Scrap Magazine, JP Morgan has lowered their 2004 forecast
for nickel from $6.97/lb to $5.97/lb. SG is advising we may see nickel prices
climb back to the $6.80/lb range, possibly by the last quarter of the year.
And the HSBC Bank offers $5.75/lb as their forecast average price for
2004.
* Nickel inventories dropped below 8M tonnes to 7,980 yesterday. After
some profit taking early, LME nickel rebounded to sell at $6.75/lb by 8:30
EST. |
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6-22 |
LME nickel took a small step back, but traaders are saying its only a
short pause in an otherwise climbing market. Ended the day at
$6.72/lb.
* Norilsk Nickel also announced the port of Dudinka has re-opened!
This could make some traders nervous.
* Norilsk Nickel Deputy CEO Leonid Rozhetsky told a news conference
yesterday that nickel prices will stay high for a long time without any
significant fluctuations. He said Norilsk is considering if it would be
appropriate to expand production in 2005.
* LME nickel inventories fell another 276 tonnes yesterday
and now sits at 8,022 tonnes. Pricing at 8:30 EST was at $6.77/lb. |
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6-21 |
LME nickel ends the day at $6.75/lb.
* The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics
predicts nickel mine production is expected to increase 3.2% in the next
12 months. It is also predicting the current upswing in prices will continue
in the latter half of 2004.
* Yahoo Finance has published an article this AM quoting some
new price predictions for nickel. They are also advising that 1,464 tonnes
of the 8,298 tonnes we listed this morning as LME inventory is cancelled
warrant - meaning it doesn't exist and will be removed in the coming days.
With the current usage sucking nearly 1000 tons a week, and a nearly 1500
ton write-off approaching, you can understand why experts are calling the
current inventory levels "critical". ANZ Investment Bank is predicting the
current up-trend in pricing will exceed the Jan 6 high of $8.06/lb. Macquarie
Research, one of the most well known and respected research group's, is now
predicitng nickel will average $6.80 to $7.70/lb during the next 6 - 12 months,
but even they admit "the sky is the limit" in the panic market we are witnessing.
Both expect downward adjustements, as the market is overheating, but they
estimate these adjustements will be temporary. If this proves true, then
the slight decreases we are now starting to see overseas in stainless steel
pricing will end, and we could see stainless steel climb even higher by
winter.
* Nickle opened the week strong again this week after stocks
of LME nickel fell 186 tonnes Friday to 8,298/tonnes. These low levels were
last seen in October 1991, and some industry experts say they are reaching
"critically" low levels. Selling at $6.85/lb at 8:30 EST. |
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6-18 |
Bulls had the morning, with bears taking the afternon. LME nickel ended
the day and week at $6.62/lb, 13% higher than it
ended last week.
* LME nickel continues its bull run this morning as inventories
slip again, now down to 8,484 tonnes after another 270 were taken yesterday.
At 8:30 am EST, nickel was at $6.70/lb. |
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6-17 |
The bulls took complete control of the nickel market today, driving prices
up to end the day at $6.32/lb. The market only showed
it got nervous when prices went over $14/M tonne. This is the first time
since early April nickel has sold over $6/lb and does not bode well for future
stainless steel prices.
* Nickel mine in Australia reporting mine ventilation problems - setting
back production by 2 weeks.
* LME nickel inventories fell again yesterday, falling by 252 tonnes
to 8,754. Another decline in stock has driven prices higher this AM with
nickel selling at $6.04/lb at 8:30 am EST. |
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6-16 |
LME nickel prices rode a roller coaster ride today and ended at
$5.82/lb.
* US Dollar recovers after falling yesterday.
* LME nickel stocks fell again yesterday by 258 tonnes, and
now inventories sit at 9,006 tonnes. Current LME price unavailable. |
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6-15 |
After some morning profit taking and news of a falling dollar, LME nickel
regained what it had lost and closed at
$5.85/lb.
* The Specialty Steel Industry of North America announced that consumption
of stainless steel rose 8% in the first quarter of 2004 compared to the same
period of 2003. Imports took a 23% market share of US comsumption. The
International Stainless Steel Forum reports production of stainless steel
rose by 6.3% worldwide in the first quarter of 2004. Asia's 15% growth was
the largest while North and South America production grew at 5.3%.
* For all you steel users, Nucor announced its second quarter earnings
will be higher, thanks to "increased margins" and continued high demand,
in a statement by President DiMicco, and quoted by Reuters. Nucor is America's
largest steelmaker.
* Thank China for the high chromium prices. In the first quarter of
this year, they imported 119,000 tons compared to 89,000 tons the entire
prior year.
* LME nickel inventories slipped lower Monday, down 90 tonnes to 9,264
tonnes. Finally buckling to pressure caused by the higher US dollar, nickel
is selling lower this AM, at $5.72/lb at 8:30 EST. Market will watch
Greenspan's testimony to the US Senate closely today for hints about interest
rate increases. |
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6-14 |
Nickel remained strong and ended the day at
$5.85/lb.
* People's Bank of China denies reports of impending interest
rate hike. States rate will only be considered if consumer price index
hit 5%; currently at 4.4%.
* China stock market slips on fears of interest rate hikes in
both US and China. If these fears are felt in London, we may see a temproary
downward correction in LME nickel.
* LME nickel remains strong in early Monday trading, selling
at $5.80 at 9 am EST. LME inventories are now down to 9,354 tonnes. |
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6-11 |
LME closes the week at $5.78/lb.
* Molybdenum, used in 316 stainless, is up again, selling
at $16.35/lb.
* US dollar hits 3 week high but nickel traders shrugs this
off and increase price.
* Some industry analysts are predicting we may see another price
spike in nickel, before falling again. Low stockpiles are playing a key part
in this prediction, as well as an increase in funds investment.
* South African ferrochrome producers, supplying over 3/5th's
of the world's supply, have advised they will be asking for increases of
up to 15% for third quarter shipments. This would put prices in the $.78/lb
range. Chromium makes up 18% of 300 series stainless steel.
* The recent evacuation of foreigners from Inco's Indonesia
nickel mine will end soon, as police announce the arrest of a dentist who
admitted making the "terrorist" threats because he feared he would lose his
job to a foreigner. Inco had taken the death threats seriously, as had the
Indonesia governement, which increased security at the mine with hundreds
of additional police. Approximately 50 Australian and Canadian mine employee's
had left the country upon the advice of their embassies but the alert is
expected to be cancelled.
* Falconbridge has service maintenance scheduled at its Sudbury
operation beginning in late June and lasting for 7 to 8 weeks.
* LME nickel was selling at $5.72/lb at 8:30 EST. Nickel inventories
available thru the LME fell below 10M tonnes to 9,732 tonnes. This is nearing
the record low of 8304 tonnes, hit on March 20, 2001. |
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6-10 |
US dollar lost some of its value today, and this with the news from WMC
drove nickel prices higher, closing at
$5.70/lb.
* May factory production figures from China lend support that the
country is successfully slowing down its economy without crashing, as some
had feared. For the first time in 4 months, China claims it exported more
than it imported.
* WMC Resources is shutting down on of its neckel smelters for 2 weeks
for maintenance later this month. While it states this will not affect their
annual production, this unscheduled shutdown, during a period when Norilsk
is unable to ship, will not make traders feel an easier about nickel supplies.
* LME nickel rebounded this AM, opening at $5.31/lb and currently
at $5.56/lb. Inventories fell yet again, and nearly below the 10M/tonne mark
- currently at 10,020 tonnes. A month ago, inventories were at nearly 15M
tonnes, with a gradual drop every day since. |
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6-9 |
A surge in the dollar against the euro, up 1.6% by noon EST, brought
nickel prices down, closing at $5.42/lb.
* Reuters quoted Falconbridge as predicting prices on nickel
will increase again, before heading back down.
* LME nickel was trading lower this AM after US Federal Reserve
Greenspan made remarks yesterday stating the Fed is ready to raise interest
rates. Selling at $5.58/lb. Nickel inventories continue to fall, loosing
660 tonnes yesterday to reach 10,170 tonnes. This steady decline is very
concerning to traders. |
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6-8 |
Nickel remained strong, closing on the LME trading floor at
$5.59/lb.
* Scrap Magazine is quoting Barclay's Capital as predicting nickel
will average $6.58/lb in the third quarter. Not good news for stainless
users.
* LME nickel was selling at $5.61/lb at 8:30 am EST. LME nickel inventory
falls below 11M tonnes to 10,830. With falling inventories, strong demand,
and Norilsk shipments sidelined by seasonal floods, prices remain strong. |
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6-7 |
Nickel on the LME sold higher today. Nickel closed at
$5.53/lb.
* Norilsk Nickel releases information on its proven and probable
nickel reserves for the first time in its history. The report gives the amount
of proveable nickel reserves at the Talnakhsky deposit to be 5.335
million tonnes and puts the probable at 4.484 million tonnes. At the Zhdanovsky
deposit add an additional 1.302 million tonnes of proveable nickel reserves
and 466M tonnes of probable.
* LME nickel opened higher this AM selling for $5.53/lb. Inventories
continue to fall, now sitting at 11,016 tonnes. |
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6-4 |
Nickel on the LME exchange ended the day and week at
$5.45/lb.
* On a lighter note, was I the only one looking for a giant asteroid
in the sky last night after the CIA Director announced his resignation for
reasons as lame as those given in the movie "Deep Impact"?
* The Taiwan-Mainland China relationship, never good, seems to be
getting more sour. Annual military games, to be held in June by China, has
Taiwan overly nervous, and now rumors of possibly trade embargo's against
Taiwan has investor's nervous. Taiwan claims it is independent of China,
while the latter holds that Taiwan is a rogue state that could be militarily
brought "back into the fold". While past administration's have publically
backed Taiwan, President Bush, last year, told Taiwan he did not recognize
their independence. While it is doubtful anything serious will come of it,
it is the modern day David & Goliath scenario. With much of the worlds
supply of stainless steel fasteners coming from these two nations, it is
worth noting..
* LME nickel was lower in early morning trading, selling at $5.45/lb.
Nickel inventories at LME continue to fall, now at 11,124 tonnes. |
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6-3 |
LME nickel regained some of its losses from yesterday, closing at
$5.53/lb.
* Allegheny Ludlum announces it has completed the acquisition
of J&L Specialty Steel. This now leaves 3 dominating producers of stainles
stele in the US...Allegheny, AK Steel, and North American Stainless.
* Those propane trucks that the FBI put a national alert on
yesterday, were recovered late yesterday.
* World's 10th largest container line, China Shipping Container
Lines Co Ltd, says it expects container freight rates to climb 11-13% this
year, as demand continues to exceed supply.
* LME nickel is at $5.54/lb in early morning trading, although
the Kitco graph above does not appear to be working. LME nickel inventories
fell again yesterday, to 11,190 tonnes. |
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6-2 |
News out of China and Greenspan's remarks on rate hikes spooked the market
and LME nickel fell to close at $5.42/lb.
* The FBI put out a national alert Tuesday for two propane trucks,
stolen sometime over the holiday weekend in Texas, and all of the major media
outlet's pick up the story. The week earlier ,hardly anyone noticed when
NASA reported it can not account for $2,000,000,000 of taxpayer's money!
We live in complicated times.
* China's Ministry of Commerce has posted on their web site a prediction
that their economy will grow at 9.8% during the first half of 2004, above
the 7% target set by government officials who are attempting to slow the
rate of growth down. In 2003 the economy grew 9.1%. On the other hand, and
more important to the nickel market, Asia Pulse is reporting experts predict
stainless growth in China may drop to 5% during the next few years, after
a phenomenal growth of 30.72% over the past 3 years.
* Molybdenum is moving back up, selling at $14.12/lb yesterday. This
is not good news for 316 Stainless users.
* LME nickel opened morning trading at $5.62/lb. Nickel inventories
on the London Metal Exchange fell slightly yesterday, down to 11,376 tonnes. |
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6-1 |
After an inital spurt of fund buying drove markets higher this morning,
LME nickel prices went into limbo, closing at
$5.63/lb.
* US crude oil closed at $42.38 a barrel, an all time high.
If you dont see the increase at the pumps tonight, you will tomorrow.
* POSCO of South Korea announces its first price cut this year
on 300 series stainless, advising prices will be cut by 7.6% effective on
shipments made in mid June.
* Report by International Energy Agency "Analysis of the Impact
of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy"
pdf
* Economic news out of US today shows a mixed bag. The good
news is factory employement is way up, Reuters reporting a 31 year record
high. Construction, as well as planned corporate lay-off's, was also up.
US crude oil hit a 21 year record, at $41 per barrell. And the healthy economic
news is about guaranteeing a interest rate hike laster this month.
* LME nickel soared in early morning trading, opening the week
and month at $5.68/lb. Much of this is fresh investment from funds, common
at the beginning of each month, but in light of weekend terrorist activity
in Saudi Arabia, it is doubtful this sharp increase will continue or last
long. Nickel market does remain strong however, as LME nickel inventories
fell again Friday to 11,442 tonnes. |
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Why do nickel prices matter in regards to stainless steel?
Our article.
June 2003 comparison figures
Average LME nickel price - $4.03/lb
Allegheny Ludlum Surcharges for May
|
|
Nickel |
Chrome |
Moly |
Iron |
2003
2004 |
304 |
.1526
.3677 |
.0099
.0821 |
NA |
0
.0386 |
2003
2004 |
316 |
.1908
.4596 |
.0088
.073 |
.0476
.2654 |
0
.0375 |
arrow denotes price comparison to prior month
courtesy
Allegheny
Ludlum
Every effort is made to provide factual information in a timely manner as
a convenience to the reader. Any opinion given on this web site is just that
- a mere opinion, and the author is not responsible for any action taken
based off that opinion. Multiple sources are used for obtaining this info
and there is no guarantee of its accuracy. |