7-30 |
LME nickel closed the day, week, and month at
$6.82/lb. This just happens to be the overall monthly
average for July 2004 also.
* And just to make you feel better about your job, I found this
June 2003 prediction for 2004 nickel prices from Reuters. LONDON, June
27 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices should track higher
into 2004, but sharp gains by the notoriously volatile metal can be largely
ruled out, Barclays Capital said in a report on Friday. Barclays raised
its price forecast for 2003 to 377.3 cents/lb from 367.6 cents. It left the
2004 figure unchanged at 388.4 cents but raised its 2005 forecast to 369.70
cents from a previous 334.50. (In their defense, no one was predicting
it to be as bad as it currently is)
* LME nickel is quiet this morning with very little price adjustment
from yesterday's close. |
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7-29
 |
LME nickel closes the day up at $6.51/lb, but
still below the monthly average.
* For you investors, buying land in little Ravensthorpe, Australia
could pay off big. Population 300, and the site of a new BHP nickel mine.
With over 1000 construction workers needed over the next 3 years, and 3-400
permanent workers being hired, the sleepy village is expected to become a
modern day boom town.
* YUCOS got a reprieve today and the government has allowed
oil sales to continue - record high oil prices yesterday should come back
down.
* Japan and Korea have reportedly raised their export price
on stainless steel for August..
* Yieh United, one of Asia's largest steel mills, announced
today that it has restructured its production to keep up with increasing
demand from China for 200 series stainless and this will mean a reduction
of 20M tonnes of nickel annually. One of the nickel mining companies biggest
fears is that consumers, faced with high nickel prices, will begin to look
for alternatives. 200 series stainless has less nickel content than the 300
series stainless.
* LME nickel prices are up slightly in early morning trading. |
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7-28 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.31/lb.
* Think your steel prices are high enough? Well they may go
higher. Iron ore miners in Canada are on strike and unions in the US are
demanding more of a piece of the 25 year high prices market. The strikes
and strike potentials could affect up to 25% of supply.
* It's possible we will see more increases at the pump as Russia's
largest oil producer YUKOS, nears bankruptcy. Court officers have ordered
the company to stop sales, which drove yesterday's oil prices to just shy
of a new 21 year high. YUKOS ships more oil than OPEC member Libya, and any
disruption in supply will put further strain on high world demand.
* YUSCO, Taiwan's largest private stainless steel mill, has
increased prices on stainless steel shipments made after Aug 1.
* Please note corrected closing for yesterday! |
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7-27 |
LME nickel took another beating - good news for stainless users. Closed
the day at $6.46/lb.
* Universal Stainless raises stainless steel prices by 5% effective
August 1st.
* 3rd largest nickel producer Falconbridge announced last Friday its
profits for the second quarter of 2004 had surged by more than 3 fold on
sales that were up 43% over last year. Net income rose to $139 million from
$39 million.
* LME nickel is selling at $6.32/lb this morning at 8:30 AM EST.
Inventories have risen to over 10M tonnes. |
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next update Tuesday, July 27th |
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7-22 |
LME nickel closed at $6.86/lb.
* Tally Metals, a subsidiary of Carpenter Technology, announced
today it was raising prices of stainless by 3 to 7% for shipments beginning
in August.
* LME nickel is trading higher this morning, as the Euro
strengthened against the dollar. At 8:30 AM EST, nickel was at $6.94/lb.
Labor unrest at Rustenberg also has traders attention. Nickel inventories
feel by 30 tonnes yesterday. |
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7-21 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.88/lb.
* Man Financial is quoting a Reuters survey of 23 analyst's prediction
of 2004 nickel prices. The median forecast was $6.20/lb, with the highest
being $7.05/lb and the lowest being $5.64/lb.
* Universal Stainless reporting sales of $29 million in the second
quarter of 2004, a 72% increase over 2003's second quarter. Profits for the
period rose to $1.6 million, compared to a loss in 2003 of $440M.
* LME nickel lost much of yesterday's gains in early morning trading,
selling at $6.90/lb this morning. Inventories lost 96 tonnes yesterday after
good gains the last week. |
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7-20 |
Obviously traders were not bothered by what Inco announced today and
the trading day ended up, back over the $7/lb range at
$7.06/lb.
* Allegheny Technologies reported profits of $38.1 million in
the second quarter of 2004, compared to a net loss of $22 million during
the same period of 2003.
* Inco reports it shipped 31% more nickel in the last quarter
than it did during the same quarter last year. Production rose from 100 million
pound to 131 million. They also stated "We currently believe that the nickel
market, although expected to continue to experience volatility, will remain
robust into the foreseeable future."
* The union at Rustenburg copper and nickel plant of Anglo American
Platinum, known as Angloplat, are threatening to strike, giving traders some
incentive to drive nickel prices up. This plant has a capacity of producing
20 tonnes of nickel cathode a year.
* LME nickel rose this morning, although inventories rose again
by another 246 tonnes. At 8:30 AM EST nickel was selling at $6.98/lb. |
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7-19 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.82/lb.
* US dollar is taking a beating against the Euro. While up today,
it fell to a 4 month low on Friday - which could explain some of the strength
in nickel prices.
* LME nickel opened with very little trading activity as of 8:30 AM
EST where it was trading at $6.82/lb. Inventories gained again Friday, adding
another 408 tonnes. |
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7-16 |
LME nickel ended the day and week at $6.81/lb.
We hope someone is paying attention to the WMC Resources president, who repeated
himself on Thursday, stating there "was too much hype" and demand wasn't
what it was being made out to be.
* According to Yieh.com, ferrous scrap prices are on the rise again.
Taiwan is sending representative to Russia to enquire about scrap there.
Russia has made exporting scrap more difficult after experiencing some extremely
bizzare and deadly accident's due to the theft of metals to be sold as scrap.
* Australia's second largest nickel supplier announced it was lowering
its forecast for nickel production for the next 12 months by 5,000 metric
tonnes. Had this announcement been made a few months ago, prices would have
dramatically increased. Now with LME inventories in much better shape, the
effect could be minimal.
* LME nickel opened lower with more downward movement expected.
Inventories of nickel took another large jump yesterday, gaining an additional
744 tonnes. This makes it difficult for the nay-sayers to claim demand is
out-stripping supply. Although, to be fair, we are in stainless steel's typical
annual slower period. Price was at $6.85/lb at 8:30 AM EST. |
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7-15 |
LME closed lower today, ending the day at
$6.91/lb on surprisingly weak US economic data released
today. While indicators still show a strengthening economy, industrial production
fell .3%, its largest drop in nearly a year.
* LME inventories of nickel gained substantially yesterday,
adding another 480 tonnes. Prices are running at $6.95/lb at 8:30 AM EST. |
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7-14 |
After an up and down day, LME nickel ended a little lower than where
it started - at $6.95/lb.
* As if prices haven't risen enough on their own, our friends to the
north in Canada can plan on paying a lot more for fasteners in the future.
The Canadian International Trade Tribunal issued a preliminary Determination
of Injury for Leland Industries on Monday, finding there was evidence that
import fasteners from China and Taiwan were hurting Leland, and other domestic
manufacturers of fasteners. They have now requested the Canadian Border Services
Agency provide the Tribunal information on levels of dumping of steel and
stainless fastener to determine if they should be treated the same in any
anti-dumping tariff judgment, or separately. Ruling can be read
here.
* Posco, the world's 5th largest steel producer, and world's
most profitable, is predicting global steel prices will continue to rise,
thanks to stable demand from China. This is in contrast from what the world's
largest steel maker, Arcelor, stated in June, when they predicted current
price levels could not be sustained much longer due to the slowdown in
China.
* LME nickel inventories gained again yesterday, adding 372 tonnes.
Despite the positive news, nickel prices are up this AM, selling at $6.99/lb
at 8:30 AM EST. |
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7-13 |
LME nickel re-gained a little of its loss yesterday, ending the day at
$6.98/lb.
* Coal prices are up nearly 10% from last Wednesday on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, as demand exceeds supply.
* The strike possibility at Los Angeles and Long Beach, CA we mentioned
7/7 has been averted with an agreement reached over the weekend.
* LME nickel inventories gained yesterday by 354 tonnes with over
8M tonnes available. Prices opened higher at $6.97/lb at 8:30 Am EST. |
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7-12 |
All LME metals closed down with nickel ending today's trading at
$6.91/lb.
* Opinion - Expect at least one more month of price increases
as stainless producers foresee the strong potential of falling nickel prices
in the months to come, and make attempt's to hold higher prices as long as
the market will allow them.
* China reports 4th consecutive month of slowing industrial
growth, evidence that their attempt to slow the economy without crashing,
is working.
* Yieh is reporting US stainless inventories are at a record high,
which means stainless production should slow in the later half of 2004 and
that the bonanza for stainless producers earlier this year could be coming
to an end.
* LME nickel opened lower this AM, selling at $6.99/lb at 8:30 AM
EST. |
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7-9 |
LME nickel closed the week and day on profit taking, closing at
$7.07/lb.
* Bloomberg is reporting 2 of China's 3 largest stainless steel
producers may be forced to cut back production because of power shortages.
* LME nickel was down at 8:30 AM EST, selling at $7.10/lb.
Inventories were down yesterday by 60 tonnes. |
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7-8 |
LME nickel closed the day at $7.15/lb.
* Yieh Corp of Taiwan warning steel users not to expect to see
steel prices drop as earlier hoped.
* LME nickel was down in early morning trading at $7.09/lb at
8:30 AM EST. Nickel inventories on the LME grew yesterday to 7,956 tonnes. |
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7-7 |
LME nickel closed at $7.23/lb.
* For importers, keep your eye on the International Longshore and
Warehouse Union Local 63, Office Clerical Unit negotiations with the shipping
lines at Los Angeles and Long Beach, California. Talks have broken down and
if they strike, longshoremen have vowed not to cross their picket lines.
This would effectively shut down the nations largest port complex.
* Dollar is at a 3 month low against the Euro, which is making metals
more attractive to investors.
* Reuters is quoting commodities strategist David Thurtell of Commonwealth
Bank of Australia as stating the nickel deficit will run 15M tonnes this
year, and run 30M tonnes in 2005.
* LME nickel opened strong this morning and at 8:30 AM EST was selling
for $7.24/lb. Inventories fell slightly yesterday to 7800 tonnes. |
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7-6 |
LME nickel closes the day at $7.11/lb.
* For the first 6 months of 2004, LME nickel cash price has
averaged $6.18/lb.
* Scrap Magazine is publishing the following nickel price
prediction's for 2004. Societe Generale estimates annual average to be $6.35/lb
and Australia's Access Economics Pty. Ltd is estimating $5.75/lb.
* In a Yahoo article, Citigroup is quoted as projecting nickel
prices to average $4.75/lb in the latter half of 2004, $4 for 2004, and $3.50/lb
for 2006. With prices starting the second half of 2004 over $7/lb, many are
questioning these projections. They also predict aluminum and gold will rise
in 2005, while copper will join nickel in falling.
* Yieh Corp is reporting Taiwan mills have raised stainless
steel prices for July, while reporting 'some' Chinese mills have lowered
prices reflecting a drop in domestic demand.
* LME nickel inventories fell below 8,000 tonnes to 7,830 on Monday.
At 8:30 EST nickel prices were at $7.18/lb, after breaking the $7/lb mark
yesterday. |
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7-2 |
LME nickel closes the day and week at
$6.95/lb.
* LME nickel opened and dropped, but rebounded and at 10:15 Am EST
is selling up at $6.94/lb. |
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7-1 |
LME nickel closed at $6.88/lb.
* As expected the Fed raised interest rates 1/4 of 1% yesterday.
* LME nickel continues its 3rd day of see-saw trading, with pricing
at 8:30 AM EST at $6.81/lb. Inventories stand at 8,394 tonnes. |
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Average June 2004 LME nickel price - $6.13/lb
Average August 2003 LME nickel price - $4.03/lb
Allegheny Ludlum Surcharges for August
|
|
Nickel |
Chrome |
Moly |
Iron |
2003
2004 |
304 |
.1946
.3976 |
.0213
.0834 |
NA |
0
.0357 |
2003
2004 |
316 |
.2432
.4970 |
.019
.0741 |
.0576
.2928 |
0
.0347 |
arrow denotes price comparison to prior month
courtesy
Allegheny
Ludlum
Every effort is made to provide factual information in a timely manner
as a convenience to the reader. Any opinion given on this web site is just
that - a mere opinion, and the author is not responsible for any action taken
based off that opinion. Multiple sources are used for obtaining this info
and there is no guarantee of its accuracy. Any reproduction without
written permission from the author is prohibited. |