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 Daily
Nickel/Stainless Steel Wrap-up
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Sucden's day old nickel chart -
(here).
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Baltic Dry Index - minus 27 to 726.
(chart)
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Dollar graph in lower right corner of this page -
(chart of dollar index)
(live
java chart)
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Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China Home Prices Must Fall 30% to
Reach ‘Reasonable’ Level, Lawmaker Says // Oil Markets Seen
Withstanding Iran Attack Shock in Global Investor Survey // Japan Consumer
Spending Revival Supports Growth as Exports Slide: Economy // Russia May
Drop Planned 20% Tax on Eurobond Coupon Payments, Barclays Says // Spanish
Unemployment Reaching Highest in 15 Years Pressures Rajoy: Economy // Stocks
Drop in Europe as U.S. GDP Misses Estimates; BNP Paribas, BP Fall // Ford
Falls Short of Estimates While Reporting Biggest Profit in 14 Years // Growth
of U.S. Economy Less Than Forecast as Consumers Cut Back: Economy // Fed’s
Dudley Sees ‘Significant Impediments’ to Economic Recovery This
Year // Stocks Fall, Commodities Erase Gains as U.S. GDP Growth Trails Estimates
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The Euro is now trading at 1/2 of 1% higher against the US Dollar. NYMEX
crude is down over 1/10 of 1% and trading at $99.59/barrel. Gold is up 2/3
of 1% and silver is up nearly 1.2%. Base metals ended the session mostly
lower. We said mostly, because the nickel bull has yet to be roped. Indicator
charts show nickel opened lower, went profitable, then fell as US GDP numbers
disappointed, only to climb back in the black as the Euro gained. For the
day and week, Dow Jones reports three month nickel closed at
$9.84/lb
 . This
is a gain of $.05/lb on the day, $.56/lb on the week, and $2.28/lb higher
than a month ago today. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses
rose a fifth straight session and now total just over 95,000 tonnes. Reuters
published the long term annual average nickel forecasts of 30 metal analysts
today for 2012 and 12013 and the mean average prediction for 2012 was $9.05/lb
and for 2012, $9.84/lb. Forecasts for 2012 ranged from a low guess of $7.88/lb
to a high of $10.43/lb. Nickel continues its bullish run and we can not help
think back to the old saying "be greedy when others are concerned, and concerned
when others are greedy". Obviously the IMF lowering their worldwide economic
growth forecasts have no bearing on the potential use of nickel throughout
the world. And apparently things are suddenly better in the Euro region??
The LME warehouse stockpiles growing again apparently no longer hints to
us that current demand might be lower than supply. Oh yes, we forgot Chian
was closed all week for holiday. And in the mean time the traded price of
nickel has made the production of pig nickel profitable again. No use firing
those furnaces up earlier in the month, when everyone is heading home for
a week, but now that everyone is heading back to work....??? And this
week we learned that one of the world's biggest producers of steel, wants
to sell its stainless steel division. What do they know? Or think they know?
Is the paint even dry on their brand new US plant in Alabama? At least one
old saying is holding true. "Don't fight the trend because it is your friend".
Guess we will see if that holds up as well in February as it did this month.
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Have a safe and relaxing weekend!
Reports
Commodity/Economic Articles and Comments
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RBS Capital Markets - "With the market expected to be in surplus for the
remainder of our forecast period, we expect marginal costs to be a key
determinant of prices. Based on the historical inventory/price relationship
and our cost work, we see fundamental price support in the $8.50/lb to $9.00/lb
range. In 2012 and 2013, we expect prices to remain within this range to
limit production increases and balance the market. We forecast an average
price of $8.25/lb in 2012, $9.00/lb in 2013, $10.00/lb in 2014, and $11.00/lb
in 2015."
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Universal Stainless Reports Fourth Quarter 2011 Results -
more
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Business Sector Is More Open for Business -
more
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Hispanics More Optimistic Despite Deep Economic Pain -
more
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New-home purchases fall, 2011 worst ever for sales -
more
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Economists vs. Americans -
more
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Where Are the Jobs? -
more
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The iPhone Economy -
more
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China - The paradox of prosperity -
more
 Thyssen to decide
on stainless next week: sources - German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp's supervisory
board is to decide on a possible sale of its stainless steel unit to Finnish
group Outokumpu in an extraordinary meeting next week, two people familiar
with the negotiations said. -
more
Morning
Briefing (8:00 AM CST
is 1PM in London)
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Indicators at 6:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around no change
 , with other London
traded base metals mixed and quiet. The Euro is trading nearly 3/10 of 1%
higher against the US Dollar. NYMEX crude is up 1/2 of 1% and trading at
$100.19/barrel. Gold is up 1/4 of 1% and silver is up over 1/10 of 1% higher.
In overnight trading, Asian markets ended slightly higher, with China closed
but returning on Monday. European markets are trading lower this morning,
while US futures are slightly higher at the moment. Nickel stockpiles continued
to grow on Thursday.
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Reuters morning - Copper up on Greek debt hopes, demand prospects -
more
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LME Morning - Base metals rally restarts after brief pause, unfazed by eurozone
fears -
more
Reports
Ed Meir of INTL
FC Stone Daily Metals Commentary
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Metals continued to barrel higher on Thursday, with copper rising more than
2% to a four-month high; gold rose to a 6 1/2 week peak and energy prices
also experienced good gains. The US stock market sat the session out, closing
the day with a slight loss, although it is on track for one of its best January's
in years. The Euro was firm for most of the day; despite selling off to $1.31
by the end of the session, it almost touched a five-week high of $1.32 at
one point. There is not much new that we can add to what we have been saying
in recent commentary; with the dollar under pressure, we are seeing “risk
on” trades seep into a number of commodity complexes and base metals
should be a prime beneficiary in this regard. In addition, Wednesday’s
Fed statement should provide additional “staying power” for a stronger
Euro, something we expect to see last well into next week. Of course, longer-term
uncertainties in Europe still hover overhead, but for the time being, investors
seem to be discounting some sort of a resolution for Greece, while the continent
as a whole is expected to muddle through. We are not sure that such complacency
is warranted, but if things do take a turn for the worse, it likely will
be sometime down the road, likely by the start of the second quarter. ....
Finally, Reuters compiled its long-term price forecasts from at least 30
different analysts for both 2012 and 2013; we present the consensus forecasts
in our attachment. .... Nickel is at $21,610, up $10. (complete report
here)
Commodity/Economic Comments
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Woodside halts production as Cyclone Iggy intensifies off West Australian
coast -
more
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Commodities: Are copper, crude, nickel good portfolio bets? -
more
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How to elude the Fed's attack on savers -
more
 Analysis:
Metal prices: Lackluster - Positive sentiment on the IMF’s move to increase
European bailout by US$600 billion, which brought all commodity prices up
year-to-date (exhibit 1), is not warranted in our view, given weak metal
demand on China’s lower consumption and a worsening world economic growth
outlook. -
more
Thyssen labour
rep seeks pledge on stainless jobs - ThyssenKrupp Deputy Chairman Bertin
Eichler told workers he would only agree to a sale of the German steelmaker's
stainless steel business to Finland's Outokumpu if the unit's sites and jobs
were safeguarded. -
more
 Anglo More
Than Doubles 4Q Nickel Output On Brazil Investment - Globally diversified
mining company Anglo American PLC said Thursday its production of nickel
contained in ferronickel, a raw material used in stainless steelmaking, more
than doubled in the fourth quarter after the start-up of new installations
in Brazil. -
more
 Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
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Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here
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Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here
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