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Nickel Prices and Stainless Steel Bolts

Stainless Steel News and Prices

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Friday, November 21

  Daily Nickel/Stainless Steel Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 1PM in London)
  • Dow Jones is reporting three month nickel closed Thursday's trading session at $7.41/lb . Indicators at 6:40 am CST today show 3 month nickel trading around $.09/lb higher, with other London traded base metals trading higher as well. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME approved warehouses rose to another record high on Thursday, and now totals 394,770 tonnes. Nickel continues its bullish run today, with other base metals joining after China cut interest rates to add some momentum to their slowing economy. As the largest customer of nickel in the world, what happens in China has a big effect on speculation surrounding nickel supply and demand for 2015. Have a safe and relaxing weekend!
  • What we have learned about the November nickel price bull run - The price of nickel has been trending upwards since nickel went bullish on October 27th, although the technical trendline remains neutral. So what changed? LME stockpiles continue to grow, breaking new records nearly every day. China port stockpiles of nickel ore remain fairly stabile - at least for the moment. Growth in steel production in China continues to slump. Stainless steel production around the world has seen better days. Yet more nickel is being produced than ever before. So how do we explain this phenomenon? Come on, ess - your readers need an answer. No longer will they accept 'stuff just happens', they demand to know why, logic demands a reason. So we have done research on this topic to give our readers the cutting edge and cynical reasoning they have come to expect from us. We searched high and low for the conspiracy behind the slump in nickel prices coming to a screeching halt, and we have finally found the culprits. Yes culprits. Two of them. No, it was not the opening of a nickel mine, nor the threat of a strike at another. No, it was not Indonesia saying for the hundredth time that they would keep their ore ban in place, nor was it the report of a thunderstorm in the Philippines. No, what we have identified as the root cause, is far more sinister, and yet, more obscure. It gathered little initial attention - or so we thought. What did we learn in our thorough, sixteen minute long research, that we now pass on to you free of charge? You can point the finger at two men, Lachlan Shaw and Vivek Dhar. These two commodity analysts with Commonwealth Bank on October 27th, when nickel was at its lowest price in months, and all of the other metals analysts forecasts of doom and gloom for 2015 were ringing loudly in our ears, had the gall to pontificate that we might very well see a nickel surplus in 2015 and 2016. What? Surplus? Not a huge deficit? Traitorous dribble! Analytical terrorism! Surreptitious something or another! Who do these two think they are? But the market has replied with a vengeance. Go ahead and make your little estimates and try to confuse us all with reasoning and figures gentlemen. We scoff at your efforts and quote Mark Twain, 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". And thus - supply grows (but that will change), and demand weakens (but that will change), and the price is rising (and this is as it must be we are told). And the market leans back in its big, easy chair, raises a skeptical eyebrow, glares down at these market ruffians, and with a sneer, dares them to challenge the markets reasoning again. And those of us who sit near the end of the stainless steel chain, the ones who inevitably catch, and must pay, the effect of higher nickel prices, cringe in anticipation of the next report these two might write and hope it has a far less effect on the market. And finally, we of course are joking and may Lachlan and Vivek continue to call it as they see it. Please know we are all behind you. And I do mean - way, way, .......way behind you.  
  • Average price of cash nickel so far this month - $7.00/lb
  • Average price of LME traded nickel in 2013 - $6.80/lb / avg 2012 - $7.95/lb / avg 2011 - $10.36/lb / avg 2010 - $9.89/lb
  • (USGS) Metal Prices in the United States Through 2010 - pdf here
  • Baltic Dry Index - (current) (chart)
  • Dollar trading graph - (chart of dollar index) (live java chart)
  • Bloomberg metals morning - Nickel Heads for Second Weekly Gain as Indonesia Reaffirms Ban - more
  • Reuters metals morning - Prices rally after China cuts interest rates - more

  Reports

  Commodity/Economic Comments

  • China E-Stainless Daily Price Index -
  • China Stainless Steel Scrap Market News / Price - more
  • Yieh Daily Asian Stainless Steel News - more
  • Gerdau Steel Market Update - more
  • European Debt Crisis Live - more
  • 100 Years of Stainless Steel - more
  • (SMM) According to the forecast of Citi Group, which was broadcasted yesterday, the deficit of nickel this year would be 62,400 tonnes, at the same time the deficit in the year next would be much more at103,000 tonnes. The bank further asserted that, the nickel inventories in China, all are dried up, with the supply from the Philippines has also declined.
  • Iron Ore Completes Fifth Weekly Loss as ‘Worst Is Yet to Come’ - more

    'Immoral, but not illegal': metal warehousing games in the spotlight - Complex deals employed by Goldman Sachs' (GS.N) metals storage unit to build vast stockpiles and then maintain queues test the spirit of the London Metal Exchange operating code, shocking many traders and confirming others' suspicions. - more

    Chinese nickel pig iron prices continue to rise on tight supply - Spot prices of high-grade nickel pig iron (10-15% Ni) in China continued to rise this week to Yuan 1,000-1,050/nickel unit ($163-171/unit) delivered with 17% VAT included on Thursday on tight supply, sources said. - more

    Japan's November stainless steel output to fall on turnaround, output cut - Japan's production of stainless steel is expected to fall in November on a major plant turnaround and output cut following a fall in demand, market sources said Friday, November 21. - more

    Operating capacity of stainless steel mills slumps 55% on huge Chinese imports - The operating capacity of India's stainless steel (SS) mills has declined to the alarmingly low level of 55% due to cheap imports from China and other Free Trade Agreement (FTA) countries amid weak demand. - more

    Bank cuts nickel price forecast on rising output of alternative metal - Goldman Sachs has cut its nickel price forecast for next year by 20% because of sustained production of a lower-grade alternative in China. - more

    Why mining companies might be the Arctic’s best hope - Economic interests are set to play an increasingly important role in shaping development in the Arctic. Yet prominent members of the mining industry, familiar with the economic and reputational perils of impatient investment, remain cautious. - more

  Morning Nickel Price Statistics & Figures

  • Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here or here
  • Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here or here (updated)
  • India MCX Nickel Price - more  more
  • 100 Years of Stainless Steel Video - online here
  • Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply news and information free of charge. Contact us

 November Archives


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"A Guide To LME Trading"...pdf here (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated daily before 8 am CST weekdays - Disclaimer Original content and opinions copyright www.estainlesssteel.com. All prices shown on this page are indications only. Note - For real time and official LME prices, LME requires a user subscribe to an authorized LME vendor.

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ASTM F593C, F593D, F593G, F593H,
304 and 316 Stainless Steel Hex Bolts
and ASTM F594 Stainless Hex Nuts
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