Updated twice daily before 8:00 am CST and by 1 pm CST

Weekend Review, August 30 & 31

  China imported 540,000 tons of chromium ore valued at 231.149 million US dollars in June 2008. The import in January-June reached 3,480,000 tons valued at 1,240.615 million US dollars, up 22.9 percent and 100.3 percent respectively year on year. - more

  India's stainless steel demand is expected to rise 8-9 per cent in the current fiscal year and double in the next five years, as more of the alloy is used to make railway coaches and buildings, an industry official said. - more

  Reports

• Morning Montra - pdf here
• The Chart Store - Weekly Scoreboard - pdf here
• How do old erpeople spend their time- pdf here
• Credit Suisse Technical Chart Outlook - pdf here
• Scotia Weekly Trends - pdf here
• U.S. July Monthly Steel Fact Sheet - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• (Rusmet) China's securities regulator has forbidden, for the time being, any foreign futures exchanges or other foreign entities from setting up warehouses for delivery on the mainland, it said in a note posted on its website this week.
• (Dow Jones) "Nickel prices will find support near to medium term from strong demand for hybrid vehicles as crude oil surges, partially offsetting the weak appetite of stainless steel makers, an industry official said on Thursday. But prices, which have fallen about 21 percent so far this year on the London Metal Exchange, could come under further downward pressure when new projects start coming on stream in the next few years, said Indra Ginting, director for investor relations at PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbk."
• GFMS - Dollar outweighs other fundamentals. Nickel remains the most volatile performer out of all the major six base metals as has been evident since our last Base Metals Market Update. - more
• (even power problems in US?) Alcoa Inc. will lay off about 300 workers at a Texas smelter and is suing the plant's power supplier, claiming it caused power disruptions that forced the firings, the aluminum maker said Friday. - more
• Investors looking for Canadian stock bargains will find cut-rate prices in the base metals space, but analysts caution that a rebound may take a while, as sluggish demand could continue pressure metal prices.- more

Courtesy S & C Electric

  It is reported that domestic ferrochrome market moves sluggish this week and traders all pay attention to purchase prices offered by Baosteel and Taiyuan Steel and hole a wait and see attitude. - more

• It is reported that many Chinese iron ore traders have halted domestic sales on continued slack demand after the Olympic Games. Domestic ore concentrate price has lost over CNY 200 per tonne recently, following the price slide in spot ore imports market. And the market transactions are quite few across the country. - more

  European Surcharges for September

• ThyssenKrupp - here
• Outokumpu - pdf here

• Germany	August	September
  in Euro/t
  1.4016	703	743
  1.4301	1.583	1.504
  1.4571	2.902	2.823

  Four U.S. stainless pipe producers, and the United Steelworkers (USW) today applauded a preliminary determination by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) that Chinese imports of welded austenitic stainless steel pressure pipe were dumped at a margin of 22.03%. - more

  Broken Hill company Bemax Resources says it may be able to offer jobs to many local workers who were recently sacked. Last week, mining company Perilya announced 440 job cuts - more

  Integrity Bank of Alpharetta, Ga., with $1.1 billion in assets and $974 million in deposits, was closed Friday by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named receiver. This marks the 10th U.S. bank failure so far this year. - more  updated FDIC list here

Friday, August 29

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 120 to 6,809. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• Dollar recovered from earlier losses and was trading higher against the Euro, and lower against the Yen, while metals traded lower. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.17/lb .  
• Have a safe and enjoyable weekend!!

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.11/lb   lower. Oil is trading higher on Gustav concerns, and dollar is lower after a report showing U.S. personal income fell in July more than economists forecast. Metals, precious and base, are nearly all trading lower. Last day of the trading month is typically quiet, but you just never know. Gustav still has the capacity to become a major hurricane over the weekend, while Tropical Storm Hannah looks to be trouble for the Bahamas (here) The U.S. will be start an extended weekend att eh end of the business day, celebrating Labor Day on Monday.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more

  ANALYSIS-Nickel risks further sharp fall on slow demand - "Nickel prices could plunge another 25 percent by the end of this year, unless orders from stainless steel producers in Europe pick up in the next two to three weeks, industry sources and analysts say." - more

  Reports

• Commodities Daily - pdf here
• Daily Market Report - pdf here
• Daily Commodities Report - pdf here
• Daily Resources Plus - here
• Commodity Flashback - here
• Metals Fundamental Report - pdf here
• Standard Bank Commodities Comments - here
• Morning Bell - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "LME prices lost ground on Thursday, and although a firmer energy complex and weaker dollar helped rally the complex to practically unchanged at one point, a reversal in both these complexes ultimately led to heavy selling later in the day...In the meantime, the dollar enjoyed a mid-session recovery on higher than expected revisions to second quarter GDP (up to +3.3%). This was an important figure, as it highlights relatively decent US growth just as other western economies ,(as well as many Asian ones), are seeing their growth rates tail off markedly. It remains to be seeing whether such readings will be maintained going into Q3. We have our doubts, and in fact, most estimates are calling for US growth levels to come in well below Q2. In addition, with other economies only now starting to weaken (after an appropriate lag from the US), it seems to us that the path of least resistance in most commodity complexes is lower still. This morning, we are off to another weaker start in base metals. ... More importantly, there continues to be questions about the strength of Chinese end-user demand following the Olympics. We don’t anticipate a sharp snap-back in consumer activity in the aftermath of the Games, as we see the general macro picture in China still weakening.... We are currently at $20,095, down $405, and giving back a good portion of this week's gain. We are neutral on nickel at these levels, as prices seem to be in the middle of a minor trading range.(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Indonesia's state-owned miner, PT Aneka Tambang Tbk , revised on Friday its nickel sales target up by nearly 6 percent for this year from an earlier target to boost revenue as nickel prices soften. - more
• Scotiabank’s Mohr forecasts higher copper and uranium prices, strong international coal prices - more

  London Metal Exchange, the world's largest marketplace for industrial metals, may decide next week to begin trade in cobalt and molybdenum futures as prices surge for the raw materials used in iPods, laptops and steel products. - more

  China Metallurgical Construction Group Corp.'s $1.4 billion Ramu nickel project in Papua New Guinea hasn't been delayed after landowners this week closed the site and attacked Chinese workers, said partner Highlands Pacific Ltd. - more

• Operations at the Ramu nickel mine in Madang have been disrupted after locals attacked Chinese workers there and workers walked off their jobs protesting poor working conditions. - more

  China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group recently signed a nickel production contract with a mining company under Myanmar's Ministry of Mines. - more

  The exports of chrome ore from South Africa have been continuing to increase and particularly, an expansion of the exports for China is remarkable. - more

• BHP Billiton , involved in a near $150 billion bid for rival Rio Tinto , has agreed to provide information for South Africa's Competition Commission to evaluate the takeover move. - more

  The Central Government of China (the Ministry of Commerce) announced on the beginning of this week that the regulations for exports of ferro-alloys from China are strengthened from the 1st September of 2008 as decided as of the 21st August of 2008. - more

• Bloomberg reported that Macquarie Group Ltd, citing a drop in construction in China, said that steel consumption growth in China, is expected to slow in the second half of this year. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's figures see MF Global report above) (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• Base Metal Prices-Mumbai-Aug 29 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Thursday, August 28

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 121 to 6,929. (chart)
• Live dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• (Market Watch) The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% real annual pace in the April-through-June quarter, the fastest in since the third quarter of last year, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. This was close to double the 1.9% growth initially estimated last month.... Investors, showing no sign of concern about the outlook, took the GDP report at face value and pushed stocks up sharply on the news.... Separately, the Labor Department said first-time applications for state unemployment benefits fell 10,000 in the latest weekly data to 425,000, while the four-week average of continuing claims climbed to a near five-year high of 3.37 million." The news from the US today helped reverse earlier declines in the Dollar, which traded higher this afternoon on the better than expected economic news, and a news report that the US, Europe and Japan had secretly worked out a way to boost the dollar back in March (see here). Crude oil which started the day trading higher, then flat, has now fallen by around $2/barrel. Precious metals traded mostly higher, regardless of the dollar, while base metals all traded lower. Indicator charts show nickel fell early and then spent much of the rest of the day bouncing up and down. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.30/lb . Sucden's day old nickel chart (here) shows trading thru yesterday is meandering with no clear pattern. Overall trend still remains negative, although the Falcondo closure and end to the Olympics has given the market some optimism it hasn't had since Cerro Matoso ended their strike earlier this year. But as long as LME inventory levels remain as high as they are, and continue to find a way of "maintaining" their current levels, it is doubtful we will see nickel make any more dramatic bull runs. Unless .... something happens at the Thompson mine and smelter in Canada next month. United Steelworkers union (USW) Local 6166 will be negotiating a new contract with the Vale ownership in the coming weeks, and this bargaining session could prove difficult with the market in a slide. Here is a bookmark you might want in the next few weeks - Local 6166 web site here

  Reports

• Exhibit 1b. U.S. Imports For Consumption of Stainless Steel Products - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Commonwealth Research Hard Line - "We had been expecting the nickel price to bounce higher at some point in coming quarters. But given sluggish economic growth in developed economies, current indications are that any lift in nickel demand may initially be more muted than we had been  anticipating. With new projects expected to add to nickel mine supply over the balance of 2008 and in 2009, the nickel market is likely to remain in surplus."
• Chinese media - "China domestic ferro-chrome market keeps quiet this week, and prices maintain at the fluctuating tendency with normal transactions. The power supply shortages in some regions have forced some FeCr producers to reduce their production.... Recent chrome ore quotations dropped a little bit, but it is hard to cut down the costs of FeCr."
• China Securities Journal - "July nickel metal output in China rose, but the past week, LME nickel prices have rebounded, but still below the domestic price of nickel laterite nickel ore to the majority of a metal smelting nickel costs. We believe that the current nickel price of the concerns in the coming mainly from stainless steel to the metal nickel demand for nickel demand for iron, nickel price trend is not good for us."
• Sony President: Stagflation Threatens Asia - more
• Resources boom will last for years - more

  China is likely to cut many of its remaining tax rebates on steel product exports in the near future, after July exports hit a record high, while increasing rebates for stainless steel, traders and analysts said on Wednesday. - more

  The word "blackout" in relation to the Second World War evokes images of air raid wardens shouting "Put out that bloody light" as Great Britain turned off its street lamps and vehicle headlights, and hid interior house lights behind heavy curtains. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.23/lb  lower. Dollar continues to trade lower, and crude oil is trading higher today on Gustav worries. Precious metals are trading higher, while base metals are mixed, some higher, and some lower. Baltic Dry Index slipped under 7000 today.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• Daily Market Report - pdf here
• The Commodities Report - pdf here
• Commodities Market Analysis - pdf here
• Resource Daily Plus - here
• Standard Bank Base Metal Comments - here
• Morning Montra - pdf here
• Commodity Morning Bell - pdf here
• UK Steel have released Key Statistics for the UK steel market (including stainless steel) - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices worked generally higher yesterday on the back of stronger energy prices and a softer dollar, which lost ground despite what we thought were constructive US durable good numbers. Orders rose by 1.3% in the latest month vs. the unchanged readings expected, but that apparently did not do much to revive the greenback's fortunes. ... We are seeing an about-face in today’s trading, with metals down across the board (with the exception of lead) despite energy being up and the dollar down. Unusually, metals are looking past these items and seem to be focusing, instead, on rising LME stocks (particularly in copper and ali).... We suspect that the losses we are seeing today should be limited over the course of the day, as energy and the dollar should both provide a measure of support. However, today’s action in metals is noteworthy, as it illustrates the notion that exogenous variables (like the dollar and oil) are important, but tend to exhibit more inconsistent influences on prices. Instead, it is the fundamentals in each of the metal complexes that will ultimately set price direction. ... We are currently at $20,500, down $500, and struggling as we approach $22,500 resistance."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• (Interfax) China's refined nickel prices will continue in an uptrend for the remainder of the year with support from international nickel prices, production cuts and rising demand, industry insiders told Interfax on Aug. 27
• (Xinhau) Nickel Production Grows by 10.6% in Jan-Jul, Consumption Up 24.7%
• (China Media) South Korea Gwangyang Ferro Nickel Plant plans to put into operation by the end of September
• Credit Suisse TU.S. steel imports decreased 14% year over year in July to 2.6 million metric tons, and slightly below the preliminary July import data of 2.7 million metric tons. Adjusting for differences in shipping days, July imports increased 0.7% sequentially (up 4.1% sequentially on an unadjusted basis). Year-to-date, imports are down 11.1% versus 2007.

  China Molybdenum Co., the nation's second-biggest producer of the metal used in steelmaking, expects a global shortage of 2,000 metric tons this year will prevent prices from falling. - more

  Bloomberg reported that Macquarie Group Ltd, citing a drop in construction in China, said that steel consumption growth in China, is expected to slow in the second half of this year. - more

• Mr Yang Xinmin GM of Wuxi Tianmai Metalwork Co Limited said that the stainless steel prices would further move down before September comes, though at a slowed pace. - more

  Recycling International reports - Global production of stainless steel edged higher over the early part of this year but, more recently, the sector appears to have taken a backward step. Rotterdam prices for 304 stainless steel scrap have fallen to US$ 2180 per tonne, while 316 scrap has fallen to US$ 3250 in early August. Ferritic 430 scrap (17% chromium) and 409 scrap (13% chromium) stood at US$ 750 and US$ 650 respectively, also below the levels of mid-June." - source

  The world major steel exporter, China, set to lowering the prices. The drop hasn’t been significant so far, just 5 percent, but the metal makers of Russia will also reduce the cost of their product in the fourth quarter - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's figures see MF Global report above) (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - August 28 - here
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Wednesday, August 27

• Baltic Dry Index -  minus 65 to 7,050. (chart)
• Live dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• (Market Watch) "Signaling that some businesses have still been spending despite tight credit and a slow economy, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new orders for U.S.-made durable goods surged in July, rising 1.3%....Economists said exports are likely behind the strong durable's report....The risk must be that in time the combination of slowing global growth and a stronger dollar crimps exports, but for now they are the lifeline," Shepherdson (Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics) wrote." The Dollar traded lower against the Euro, but regained some of its lost ground later when the durable goods report was issued, and a European Central Bank policy maker put serious doubt on any further rate cuts in the EU. The path of the dollar appears to be guided by fears of who is economically worse off these days - the US or Europe. Economic news from both regions is ugly, and depending on which is worse for the day, benefits the others currency. Crude oil traded higher as Hurricane, now Tropical Storm Gustav left at least 17 dead in the Caribbean region, and was expected to regain hurricane status as it headed toward Cuba. This storm appears to have a lot of the weather experts very nervous, and its current track, posted here by the TSR, has Katrina survivors none to impressed (forecast here). The National Hurricane Center 5 day forecast here. With the dollar lower and crude oil higher, you would imagine metals would be trading higher today. And you would be correct, for the most part. While a few strays managed to end up slightly lower on the day, the overall complex was up. This included nickel, which indicator charts reflect was gradually stair - stepping its way higher all day. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.51/lb .  Sucden's day old chart shows, that after today's gain, nickel traders might be trying to test the $21,500 resistance line again (chart here). Then again, the day started with a RSI of 25, implying heavily oversold, so we may have just witnessed what some traders call a dead cat bounce today. Either way, market watchers will be watching to see what happens with LME inventories over the next few weeks. Nickel inventories, stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses, measured 47,094 tonnes yesterday, their highest level since mid June and with the Falcondo mine closure now in its second week, some will be wondering if today's slight inventory dip will continue.  

  Commodity Comments

• JP Morgan Michael Jansen - ""Metals are likely to remain rangebound in the short term but a slightly more upbeat trading environment could unfold in the fourth quarter, depending on whether Chinese merchants and producers respond to the looser fiscal and monetary settings."
• JPMorgan sees multi-year cycle for commodities - more
• 30 largest companies in the World by market cap - (including 2 mining companies) - here

  Vale Inco, the nickel wing of the Brazilian mining giant, has fallen further behind schedule in its efforts to begin installation of a waste pipe at its massive Goro project in New Caledonia, but said the mine is still on budget and on target. - more

  MEPS - World steel prices are currently at all time highs. Since August 2007, hot rolled coil average transaction values in North America have risen by almost $US600 per tonne. EU prices have moved up by approximately $US530 per tonne and Asian figures have advanced by more than $US350 per tonne. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.21/lb higher. Some analysts appear to believe the dollar has risen too fast in recent days, and after oil started the morning trading higher on Gustav concerns, the Euro got an early boost. The dipping dollar loosened the collar around the necks of metals traders, and most precious and industrial metals were trading higher.  Nickel inventories took a break, with no large inbound shipments received, and multiple outbound shipments recorded. There has been a strong influx of nickel in the past weeks, and in particular, since Xstrata announced the closure of the Dominican operation. We saw this right after BHP's Colombia mine went on strike. It came in fast and furious for a few days, then dried up completely. It will be interesting to see if that holds up this time as well.     
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more

  Reports

• CPM Group 'The Long-Term Sustainability of Recent Commodity Price Strength" - pdf here (slow to load)
• Commodities Daily - pdf here
• Oakvale Market Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• Commodities Market Analysis - pdf here
• Commodity Research - pdf here
• Morning Bell - pdf here
• Behre Global Mining News - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "LME metals lost ground on Tuesday, as a firmer dollar and lingering questions about end-user demand continued to weigh on the complex. A revival in energy prices manage to lift metals off their worst levels of the day, but unlike oil, metal prices never ventured into positive territory during the US session. This morning, we are slightly higher in the metals as a combination of higher energy prices and a weaker dollar is boosting the complex. The Euro was last trading at $1.4730, above Tuesday's six-month low of $1.4570, while the pound stood at $1.8463, after itself falling to a two-year low of $1.8330 yesterday. However, it should be energy prices that could keep things firm in metals for the balance of the week-- oil markets are fretting about Tropical Storm Gustav, which is barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico after hitting Haiti yesterday. Landfall is expected sometime this weekend. .. We are currently at $20,400, up $370, and recouping a bit more than half of yesterday's decline. However, we see the complex having difficulty working beyond $22,500 resistance.(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• China Commodities Weekly for August 18-22, 2008 - more
• "Mr. Tulpulé breaks down the markets for four key commodities that Rio Tinto produces: iron ore, copper, aluminum, and thermal coal. His paper is bullish on all four. He avoids any mention of nickel or zinc, two commodities in which prices have plummeted in the last year. Rio Tinto, to its great fortune, does not have exposure to either one. - more
• (Yieh) - The stainless steel crude steel production output at Japan’s seven major manufacturers in July saw a decrease of 9 percent compared to the previous month. Mill’s inventories were building up in July, and production was being cut at same time.
• (China Daily) Baosteel plans to lower most prices in Oct - more
• Is It Finally Time to Buy Moly? - more
• (Thomson) Salzgitter AG said it will lift the sales prices of its steel products again from the fourth quarter, reacting to a surge in energy and raw-material prices. The company said it will charge 30 euros more per metric ton of flat-bar steel and up to 120 euros more per ton of heavy plate.
• (Steel Guru) South Korea based steel distributor Gana Stainless Steel Co has formed a JV with Al Othman Imco to establish a stainless steel pipe service centre in Saudi Arabia. It will supply types 304 and 316 seamless pipes.
• South Korea Gwangyang Ferro Nickel Plant plans to put into operation by the end of September
• (Interfax) Canada has decided to levy an anti-dumping duty of between 131 percent and 292 percent on welded steel pipe exports from China, which comes after the United States slapped an over 700 percent import tax on Chinese welded pipe in May, industry insiders told Interfax on Aug. 26.
• (AISI) Based on preliminary Census Bureau data, the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that the U.S. imported a total of 2,842,000 net tons (NT) of steel in July 2008, including 2,177,000 NT of finished steel (up 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively, vs. June final data).

  Three Chinese workers at Papua New Guinea's controversial Ramu nickel mine have been attacked by 100 armed local landowners. - more

• The Governor of Papua New Guinea’s Madang province has criticised the response by both national and provincial governments as well as the developer of the Ramu nickel project to ongoing issues around the mine. - more
• Police in Papua New Guinea are investigating an attack by 100 armed local landowners on three Chinese workers at the Ramu nickel mine in Madang province. - more

  A nickel-processing plant in Long Harbour cleared an environmental hurdle on Tuesday as Newfoundland and Labrador approved a plan by Vale Inco to dispose of effluent in a backwoods trout pond. - more

  Dissatisfaction To Government With Regulations For Cr-Ore Export Is Whirling In South Africa = Fe-Cr Producers Are Complaining About Delay Of Measures To Control Cr-Ore Export - more

  Rio Tinto yesterday shrugged off talk of an impending collapse in the commodities market, pointing to recent research that suggested China will build up to 50,000 skyscrapers in the next 20 years, the equivalent of 10 New Yorks, creating sustained long-term demand for steel and other raw materials. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's figures see MF Global report above) (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - August 27 - here
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Monday, August 25
(London Metal Exchange closed today for Summer Bank Holiday)

• Baltic Dry Index - no figures released today due to holiday (chart)
• Live dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• (Associated Press) "The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units, down from June's downwardly revised rate of 4.85 million units....Home sales were about 13 percent lower than a year ago and prices were down dramatically. The median price for a home sold in July dropped to $212,000, down by 7.1 percent from a year ago. Despite the third monthly sales increase this year, the number of unsold single-family homes and condominiums rose to 4.67 million, the highest number since 1968, when the Realtors group started tracking the data." (MarketWatch) "U.S. stock indexes on Monday dropped nearly 2%, retreating from last session's strong gains, as oil reached above $115 a barrel and as concerns about the financial sector continued to weigh on investor sentiment." Down earlier, the US dollar is trading slightly higher against the Euro. Oil is lower, having fallen from an earlier day high of $16.09/barrel. Precious metals are trading lower, but only slightly. With the London Metal Exchange closed today, we have no ending nickel price to report. English markets will resume their normal schedule tomorrow. With metals news seriously lacking today, we are posting some other news that might be of interest. If you have stayed in a Best Western, you might want to read about the largest cyber heist in history. If you were a fan of the Olympics, a Chinese writer asks, "Who really won?". The final medal count here. And the BHP-Rio fight was back in the media spot light today.
• Revealed: 8 million victims in the world's biggest cyber heist - more 
• China, US, (or Jamaica): Who Won the Olympic Games? - more

  Commodity Comments

• Stephen Roach, Head Economist, Morgan Stanley - "While it is difficult to establish statistical evidence of causality, we believe that the USD and oil will likely remain negatively correlated, for various reasons." - more
• (Thompson Financial) - "The IMF pares its forecasts for 2008 and 2009 global economic growth in a note prepared for a meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) nations, a G20 finance official tells Reuters. The IMF now sees world growth this year at 3.9 pct, slower than the earlier forecast of 4.1 pct presented in its World Economic Outlook last month."
• (Reuters) - "Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Monday Russia sees no advantages to WTO membership and should freeze some commitments made during entry talks in a sign Moscow is pulling away from the West after its war in Georgia."
• China's iron ore imports in July increased 18% YOY to 39.63 million tons

  Rio Tinto boss Tom Albanese will come out with guns blazing at today's half-year results, amid tension about BHP Billiton's $150 billion takeover attempt. - more

• BHP Billiton Ltd., which has made a $142 billion hostile bid for Rio Tinto Group, was subpoenaed by South African antitrust regulators to provide information it declined to give relating to the biggest mining takeover. - more
• Rio Tinto shares rallied after Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan cleared the way for a Chinese state-owned aluminium maker's bid to increase its stake in the company. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel not selling - markets in London are closed. LME will re-open on Tuesday. The dollar is trading lower, and oil is slightly higher.  Olympics are officially over - thank you Beijing and China for one heck of a show!! Next stop - Vancouver 2010.

  Reports

• Haywood Securities Metals & Mining Weekly - pdf here
• CommerzBank Commodity Spotlight - pdf here
• Oakvale Capital Market Report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• Metals Market Analysis - pdf here
• Commodity Research - pdf here
• Daily Metal & Energy Commentary - pdf here
• Philippines Mining Briefing - pdf here
• Phillip Capital Metals Weekly - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - no daily commentary posted today due to London market being closed
• China will not suffer from a "post-Olympic recession", senior officials said Sunday, because of the scale and potential of its economy. - more

  The commodity markets have suffered significant setbacks in the past few weeks on concerns over European demand and Chinese growth, but Macquarie Bank has warned against reading too much into the recent price trends, in a research note dated Monday. - more

  The exports of Chinese low carbon ferro-chrome in the first half (January - June) of 2008 increased by 4 times compared with that in the same period of 2007 and the offensive for exports of low carbon ferro-chrome taken by Chinese producers is anticipated to continue further. - more

  Indonesia's government has announced that it is to stall the implementation of regulations limiting mineral resource production in the country, saying that plans to put the regulations in place this year have proved 'impossible.' - more

  China's Baoshan Iron and Steel (Baosteel) has cut its fourth-quarter sales prices for cold-rolled steel products, the first cut in a year, as the demand outlook weakens in China's auto and home appliance sectors. - more

  Steel prices are forecast to fall for the rest of the year as demand slackens in the domestic market, according to the Viet Nam Steel Association (VSA). - more

  Sometimes life just catches you by surprise. For Rio Tinto boss Tom Albanese, it's been happening since last year, when rival Anglo-Australian miner BHP Billiton launched a $US160 billion takeover offer for his firm. With that now mid-way through a regulatory approval process, who should Albanese bump into at the Olympics the other day? - more

• Rio Tinto Group, fending off a hostile $143 takeover bid from BHP Billiton Ltd., rose in Sydney trading after biggest shareholder Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, was given Australian approval to raise its stake. - more

  Major Japanese steelmakers including Nippon Steel Corp. and JFE Steel Corp. are considering joining forces to purchase overseas iron ore mining rights to cope with the raw material's soaring prices, informed sources said Saturday. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's figures see MF Global report above) (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - August 25 - here
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Tuesday, August 26

• Baltic Dry Index -  minus 32 to 7,115. (chart)
• Live dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• (Bloomberg) "New-home sales in the U.S. improved in July from a 17-year low and construction cutbacks by builders reduced the glut of properties on the market by the most in almost five decades." (Market Watch) "The decline in U.S. home prices picked up speed in June, with prices down a record 15.9% in the past year for 20 key cities, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's." (Market Watch) "U.S. consumer confidence rose in August - the second consecutive month of gains - but the level remained relatively low and job concerns persisted, the Conference Board reported Tuesday." (Market Watch) - ""There is going to be more attention paid to what is happening at the Democratic National Convention than the economic data calendar. This is the only week of the year when politics can take over economic data, geopolitical concerns and commodity prices," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co." (Bloomberg) "The dollar rose to a six-month high against the euro on speculation the greenback will be the main beneficiary of a global economic slowdown as German business confidence dropped in August more than forecast." (AFP) "Oil prices rebounded briefly above 117 dollars on Tuesday, erasing earlier losses as attention switched to a hurricane that could threaten US energy facilities in the Gulf of Mexico."
• So what does all the above mean in today's market? Wall Street is slightly up on the consumer confidence report, although the bulls hold is slipping. Things are getting as bad as they are in the States, which makes the dollar trade better. Oil has sold within a $5/barrel range this morning, and is, at the moment, up around $1/barrel. Metals couldn't tag on to oil's coat-tails today, as the rising dollar counter balanced the news. Precious metals were mixed, while base were all trading lower. Nickel, hit with a rather large overnight gain in inventories, succumbed to bearish pressure early on, and while its initial setback stuck thru much of the days, trading, it collapsed yet again in late trading. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended at $9.07/lb .  Sucden's chart, updated thru yesterday, shown here,  reflects last week's nickel bull spurt and the turnaround that resumed on Friday. RSI, both given by Sucden and MF Global give no direction signals. Ed Meir from MF Global calls last weeks spurt a dead cat bounce, doomed to fail, and the market has yet to give a reason to believe he might be wrong. Sucden's chart "implies" we could be testing minor support around 19,700 and if this fails to hold, we are heading into the 18,500/tonne to 19,700/tonne range.
• Hurricane Gustav appear it will miss much of Cuba's nickel mining area's, unless it swings farther north (graph here)  

  Commodity Comments

• Mining's Massive Margins - more
• New Olympic event: the commodity toss - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.29/lb  lower. Dollar is trading much higher this morning after it was reported "The German Ifo Institute's August business climate survey tumbled more sharply than expected to 94.8 in August, down from a reading of 97.5 in July". Crude oil is trading lower and the oil market will be watching Hurricane Gustav closely (here) over the next few days. Sucden reports - "Crude futures were lower this morning as poor German IFO and GDP data highlighted the frailties of the European economy and once again sparked fears that a global slowdown would result in reduced demand for oil". As we post the morning briefing, all metals, precious and base, except for palladium, are trading lower.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• TD Economics Weekly Commodity Report - pdf here
• Reuters Metals Weekly - pdf here
• Canada Commodity Price Update - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• Oakvale Capital Market Report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• Metal & Energy Report - pdf here
• Commodity Bell - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal bulls were hoping that Thursday’s stunning commodity rally was the start of something impressive, but instead the longs were lured into a vicious bull trap on Friday. Not only did metals tumble sharply by the close, they also erased pretty much all of Thursday’s gains. We were not particularly surprised by Friday’s sell-off and, in fact termed Thursday’s move a “dead cat bounce” in our note that day. Nevertheless, we were taken aback by the abruptness of the decline, especially in oil, which lost whatever if gained -- and then some. LME markets were closed yesterday, but things have turned south once again as of this writing despite a briefly higher opening in Shanghai. As European trading started, the dollar’s surge to six-month highs against the Euro on the back of dreadful Ifo German business and consumer confidence readings, (which dropped to a three-year low), coupled with a rise in LME copper stocks and rumors of impending copper deliveries into Shanghai, have all combined to hammer metals. Energy prices, which were also higher overnight and yesterday, are also sharply lower. The air continues to seep out of commodities, as participants come to realize that the US slowdown is no longer “ring-fenced”, but spreading around the globe with alarming speed, and thus explaining the dollar’s appeal....We are currently at $20,250, down $600, and still well above the downchannel that has been broken. However, we see the complex having difficulty working beyond resistance at $22,500 without more upbeat demand indications from the stainless side." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• (Metal First) China's refined nickel imports up 17% in July, ore imports down 55%. China's Electrolytic Nickel Output Was 11,403 tons in July.
• (Dow Jones) The world nickel market was in a 6,600 metric ton deficit in the first half of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics "

  Rio Tinto, the world's second largest miner, today revealed a 51.8 per cent rise in profit for the first six months of the year due to soaring commodity prices as it reiterated its rejection of BHP Billiton's offer for the group. - more

• A surge in demand from China could cause a bounce in commodities prices as restrictions on industrial activity around Beijing are eased after the Olympics. - more

  Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending August 23, 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,125,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 89.1 percent. Production was 2,075,000 tons in the week ending August 23, 2007, while the capability utilization then was 87.7 percent. The current week production represents a 2.4 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending August 23, 2008 is up 2.0 percent from the previous week ending August 16, 2008 when production was 2,167,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 90.8 percent."

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's figures see MF Global report above) (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - August 26 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Friday, August 22
(London Metal Exchange closed Monday, August 25th for Summer Bank Holiday)

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 43 to 7,147. (chart)
• Live dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• MarketWatch - "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a soothing message to global markets Friday, saying inflation was on track to moderate in coming months, and triggering a rally in stocks on speculation that means the Fed will keep interest rates low for the near future." This put Wall Street in a very good mood. CNN reported "The U.K.'s gross domestic product between April and June showed zero growth, the country's statistics office reported Friday." This news help boost the dollar higher, while oil traded lower, and metals, in general, also traded lower. Indicator charts show three month nickel had a very bouncy trading day, with Dow jones reporting the bears finally won the tug-of-war, with the metal closing at $9.43/lb . While down for the day, nickel ended 11% higher on the week. Monday will see LME markets closed for Summer Bank Holiday, with trading to resume on Tuesday.
• Olympic metal count - here Closing ceremonies will take place this Sunday. Paralympics began next month in Beijing. Have a safe and restful weekend!! 

  Reports (none of the reports below are current but contain information that might prove helpful or interesting to some readers)

• China's Impact on Metals Prices in Defense Aerospace, December 2005 - published April2006 - pdf here (slow to load)
• New Insights into the Drivers of Metals Prices - pdf here (old article - interesting info)
• Modeling of Stainless Steel Properties - pdf here
• Pricing Metals Structured Products - pdf here
• Properties of austenitic stainless steels - pdf here
• Study Of Spot Welding Of Austenitic Stainless Steel Type 304 - pdf here
• Choosing Stainless Steel Rebar - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• China Stakes - "The government’s income has finally taken a hit from China’s slowing growth. July revenues to central and local governments dropped by nearly 20%, making doubtful rumored economic stimulation policies such as tax cuts. According to Ministry of Finance (MoF) statistics, China’s total revenue in July was RMB 532.325 billion, an increase of 13.8% over the same month last year. But this growth rate is 19.3 percentage points lower than in July, 2007, and 19.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first half of the year."

  A dramatic drop in nickel prices over the last year does not appear to be jeopardizing operations or mine development projects in the Sudbury area, even though such cutbacks have been seen in other jurisdictions. - more

  About 200 workers at the Nunavik Nickel Mine site have been told they will be laid off by the end of October as Canadian Royalties faces serious financial and logistical problems and a dispute with its minority partner. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.20/lb lower. Dollar is up, crude is down slightly, and metals are trading in the red. The LME will be closed on Monday for a Bank Holiday, so we appear to be seeing some profit taking before the extended weekend. Sucden's daily chart reflects the effect of the 3 day bull run, and RSI shows the market overbought - here. Nickel inventories rose substantially for a second day. Trading has been very volatile in nickel trading this morning.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• Oakvale Capital Market Report - pdf here
• Angel Commodities Daily Analysis - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• Commodity Morning Bell - pdf here
• Daily Market Commentary - pdf here
• AIIS August 2008 Steel Market Import Survey - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "We had a stunning rally in base metals yesterday, and there were massive price gains in energy and precious metals as well. ... Yesterday’s spike in commodities brings up the question of whether the move we saw was a massive dead cat bounce, or the start of something more meaningful. At this stage of the game, we think the dead cat bounce theory has more credibility. Our negative view is based on our belief that yesterday’s move was way overdone, and could be vulnerable to an equally sharp setback, as apart from dollar weakness, there was nothing else that compelling to justify the advance. In fact, we are seeing most commodity complexes roll back a good portion of their gains today, as the dollar recovers about half of yesterday's losses against the Euro and now trading at $1.4840. ... We are currently at $20,900, down $595, and falling short of our upside target of $22,500 yesterday. Look for a drift lower from here, with prices pushing towards the $20,000 mark." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Fears that the commodity boom is ending are exaggerated, as growth in China and India will support demand despite a threat of recession in major developed economies, says academic and Reserve Bank of Australia board member Warwick McKibbin. - more
• Reuters reported that BHP Billiton Limited is not planning any changes to its Australian nickel making operations. A BHP Billiton spokeswoman said that BHP, which in June 2008 idled its Kalgoorlie nickel smelter and Kwinana refinery in Western Australia for four months of repair work, is operating its mines and other processing facilities as normal. She added that "We are not considering any changes to our operations."

  According to China’s major stainless steel firms, stainless steel demand in China will stay weak in September 2008 amid concerns of an economic slowdown. - more

  An Outokumpu survey reports that the sales volume of stainless steel in the US in the first season of 2008 has dropped by 12.5% from the last quarter of 2007 due to weak demand in the global market. - more

  Australia's competition regulator Friday raised concerns over the pricing power in the iron ore market of a combined BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP) should BHP's proposed takeover of its rival proceed. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's figures see MF Global report above) (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - August 22 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Thursday, August 21

• Baltic Dry Index -  minus 154 to 7,190. (chart)
• Live dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• MarketWatch reporting on Conference Board report issued today ""If there's a second-half recovery, it'll be the second half of 2009," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research organization. "The recent decline in gas prices isn't enough to overcome all the negative momentum that's been building up." Daily FX reported "The US Dollar has pulled back across the majors this morning as the Conference Board's US leading indicator fell more than expected at a rate of 0.7 percent in July, marking the sharpest drop since the credit crunch began at the end of last summer." And the AP reported "Oil prices jumped above $121 Thursday as rising antagonism with Russia underscored the possibility it could affect energy shipments from the world's second-largest oil producer. The weakening U.S. dollar, a fall in U.S. gasoline inventories and a possible output tightening by OPEC at its next meeting in September all helped push prices higher."
• On June 20th of this year, nickel became the second most expensive metal traded on the London Metal Exchange, when tin prices passed it by. Today, nickel came close to re-gaining the top spot, but not quite. Although nickel had another incredibly bullish day, tin did also. In fact, with the dollar down nearly 1% today, metals, both industrial and precious, went green. Equity markets, on the other hand, paid the price (world markets here). What a difference two days makes?! Up till a few days ago, reporters were blaming the fears of a global economic slowdown for forcing metal prices lower. Now a newly published economic report once again confirms just how bad it is in the US, the dollar drops, and the "fears of a global economic slowdown" magically move to page two. Our advise remains the same. Until things return to normal in China, watch the dollar for direction clues to overall base metal movements. Indicator charts show the plus/minus trading range for nickel today was around $1600/tonne. Mostly all up. And while it took a slight dip toward the end, it had recovered most of this by close. Market does not yet appear to have broken thru Sucden's $21,500 resistance line (chart here), although it is poised to make an attempt, unless profit takers drive the market lower before the three day weekend break (Summer Bank Holiday in London on 25th). It would be interesting to know how much of the gain over the last few days are shorts scrambling to cover. This was a market firmly in the grips of the bears until the bull stampede started on Tuesday. RBS metals analyst John Kemp in London told Dow Jones today "I think the market got itself very short and a moderate amount of buying pushed prices higher as people tried to cover those shorts." While Kemp was referring to the metals complex as a whole, short covering has had to have had some effect on nickel trading the last few days. JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen, was pessimistic in his morning report, "(Just) because one or two producers are struggling, it is not necessarily logical to get bullish of the relevant produced metal. What really confirms that prices have stabilized is a solid sustained demand recovery." Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended today's trading at $9.75/lb .   

  Commodity Comments

• from Outokumpu Quarterly Report - "Global growth in demand for stainless steel slowed towards the end of the second quarter and markets moved to oversupply. The quarter’s apparent consumption of stainless steel is estimated to have remained almost flat in Europe and globally compared to I/2008. Market conditions were weaker in both Europe and Asia. In the US, demand for stainless continued to be at a low level. Global production of stainless steel increased by some 2% compared to the first quarter despite strong production cuts in Asia, especially in China.... ...Compared to the very strong first half of 2007, demand for stainless steel was significantly lower in the second quarter. ...The slowdown of demand during the holiday season and annual maintenance breaks at the Group’s mills as well as the postponement of purchases by distributors will clearly reduce stainless delivery volumes for the third quarter compared to the second quarter"
• Some reasons not to expect a collapse in raw-materials prices - more

  The stainless steel and ferrochrome markets are expected to recover in the fourth quarter of this year but growth will remain limited until the end of 2009 due to a weaker global economy, U.K.-listed Kazakh miner Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation PLC said Thursday. - more

  A dramatic drop in nickel prices over the last year does not appear to be jeopardizing operations or mine development projects in the Sudbury area, even though such cutbacks have been seen in other jurisdictions. - more

  Google Map view of Cuba's nickel mines/plants - here

  Novice explorers check out a deserted nickel mine fairly intact south of Timmins - here

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.46/lb higher. Apparently no profit taking today. Traders are interested in making as much out of this recent Falcondo news as possible and not interested in stopping a bull run just yet. If you look at Sucden's chart thru yesterday (here), you might note that this morning's indicator charts show that the current nickel trading price is very nearly, if not already, "off" this Sucden chart. We have yet to reach Ed Meir's $22,500/tonne major resistance line - but it is looking more and more likely this level might get tested. As you can see by Ed's morning report (below), LME inventories gained by a rather substantial amount overnight.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  China's Stainless Steel Demand Stays Weak, Makers Say - Stainless steel demand in China, the world's largest producer, will stay weak next month amid concerns of an economic slowdown, the country's three largest producers said. - more

  Reports

• Fortis Metals Monthly - pdf here
• BMO Monthly Commodity Watch - pdf here
• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• Oakvale Capital Daily Market - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• AIST Industry Stats thru June 2008 - pdf here
• July 2008 Crude Steel Production - pdf here
• Morning Metals Montra - pdf here
• Morning Bell Commentary - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals turned in a mixed performance yesterday despite a modest recovery in energy prices late in the day. Copper ended slightly lower and well off earlier highs, as focus shifted, instead, to the recovering dollar. Lead also finished lower, but nickel remained resilient, closing just under the $20,000 mark.  ... We are off to a much more solid showing today, with the whole board higher. Copper is hovering just around the $7750 mark, while nickel and tin have both crossed over $20,000. The dollar has stalled against the Euro today, and is currently at 1.4750, helping the advance. Metals are also taking their cue from the energy markets, which are sharply higher today despite a sizeable build in crude stocks yesterday. The continued fallout from the Georgian crisis is stirring up energy, with the Russians leaving their intentions vague as to whether or not they intend to redraw the political map. In this regard, it will be interesting to see what they will say to a formal request made by one of the breakaway regions, (Abkhazia), for Russia to formally recognize its independence. Saying yes could elevate the crisis to a new level and roil up the markets even further. We suspect that with the dollar's advance on hold for now and energy prices moving higher to possibly the $120 mark, metals will also push higher in sympathy over the next few days. In addition, we suspect that there will be a good deal of short covering that could also aid the advance. However, this will be a rally in what seems to us be to a general drift lower, as the bearish macro background is still very much with us.... We are currently at $21,400, up $900. Nickel took out the downside channel, (as our chart shows), and now could see a run to $22,500. However, we suspect that the rally will eventually falter given decelerating demand prospects on the stainless side. In fact, Bloomberg reports today that China’s three largest producers said that stainless steel demand will stay weak well into next month." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said a tumble in commodities from records represented a temporary reverse in a long-term rally. - more
• (Yieh) Some Korea importers have already decided to cancel hot-rolled procurement contracts after mid-July because of internal weak demand.
• (Interfax) China's crude steel output up 9.3 pct year-on-year in first seven months
• Analysis-Steel prices set to bounce but not too high - more
• Japan's July crude steel output up 1.7% on year at 10.19 mil mt - more
• Flat-rolled steel market in US takes another hit, declines $30/st - more
• Commodities: Is the Decennial Pattern Still in Effect? - more

  The latest production cutbacks in the nickel industry after a steady decline in prices have fueled hopes that nickel may be near a floor, but much still depends on the health of the stainless steel industry, where China holds the key, say analysts. - more

  Supply And Demand Of Ferro-Chrome In Japan For Jan. - Mar. 2008 Quarter = Under Largest Overstocks At Mills In Its History, Prices Of Ferro-Chrome Had Steeply Risen - more

  Rio Tinto Group, planning a $2 billion nickel mine in Indonesia, said the project is still profitable after prices of the metal slumped. - more

• Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto said Thursday it hopes to sign a contract with Indonesia later this year for the development of a major nickel concession in Sulawesi. - more

  EU steel prices are currently at record levels after meteoric advances through the first half of 2008. - more

  Miner Mincor Resources Ltd has reported a 36 per cent fall in net profit for the 2008 financial year to $64 million on the back of lower nickel prices. - more

  ArcelorMittal SA announced Wednesday it has acquired London Mining Brasil, a Brazilian iron ore miner, and said it will develop port facilities in the state of Rio de Janeiro together with Canadian iron ore producer Adriana Resources Inc. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - August 21 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Wednesday, August 20

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 199 to 7,344. (chart)
• Live dollar graph in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• (Dow Jones) "A much larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil stocks last week - more than 11 times the amount forecast by analysts - led to a heavy selloff in crude oil that didn't spare base metals." Crude had started out the day gaining (java chart here), but the aforementioned report drove the market lower. The US Dollar also traded higher against the Euro (java chart here). The Baltic Dry Index appears to have returned to the bear walk, with a big drop registered today. Nickel inventories were up overnight. While most of the precious and base metals trading ended lower today, nickel was not one of these. Indicator charts show it was another $1000 plus trading range for the metal, with a slight decline in the early morning trading, followed by a bullish afternoon. Looking at Sucden's daily chart (here), it appears the market broke thru the 19,496 and 19,748 lines successfully today, and could be poised to test the resistance line of TL2 at $20,101. Ed Meir with MF Global has major resistance at $22,500. Then again, stainless steel producers are praying for some profit taking tomorrow. We'll have to wait to see what happens, but in the mean time, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.03/lb , it's first close over $9/lb since July 23rd. After yesterday's bombshell from Xstrata about the Falcondo closure, the news was much quieter today.
• Forbes - more
• Typhoon Nuri is expected to strengthen to level 3 before striking southern Guangdong Province in China on Friday. map And back in the US, Tropical Storm Fay is 1/2 way thru its scenic path of Florida, and after that there is a very minor possibility it could turn southwest and re-enter the Gulf. Forecasters however, think this is highly unlikely (map here) 

  Reports

• Triland 'Outlook for Nickel to 2017' - pdf here
• The Energy Benefit of Stainless Steel Recycling - pdf here
• Birth of Stainless Steel - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• The Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has decided to levy a fine on Mechel and has ordered the company to reduce its coking coal prices by 15% effective Sept 1

  Couple of reports we found online that some readers might find helpful

• Salt fog tests of 304 and 316 stainless steel - pdf here
• Kesternich tests of 304 and 316 stainless steel - pdf here (slow to load)

  Interesting news story on NBC Nightly News last night that is rather bearish - news story here

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.24/lb higher. Indicator charts show nickel was off earlier, as the media is reporting, but has recently spiked yet again. Even with all the buying yesterday, Sucden still shows the RSI on nickel to be at 30, which implies the market remained oversold at beginning of trading today.    
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here
• Oakvale Capital Market Report - pdf here
• Angel Metals Report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• SMC Commodity Research - pdf here
• Commodity Bell - pdf here
• Jyske Commodities Daily - pdf here
• ASB Commodities Weekly - pdf here
• India Metal Prices Monthly - pdf here
• India Daily Metal Commentary - pdf here
• AIST Steel Industry Statistics - pdf here
• Behre Dolbear Global Mining News - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "With things very quiet in terms of news and volume thin, markets are vulnerable to out of the ordinary movements, triggered by relatively insignificant changes in sentiment. Such was the case yesterday, when the dollar weakened to unchanged levels against the Euro after being stronger earlier in the day. That was enough, however, to set off a short-covering stampede in a variety of commodity complexes, base metals included. ... Some of this euphoria is being rolled back this morning ... We are currently at $19,250, down $145. Given how beaten up nickel was of late, it is perhaps not surprising to have seen a decent bounce in the complex this week, especially since $18,000 refused to break on the downside. Despite the fundamentals looking sloppy, charts suggest that we could move a little higher from here, as the short-term downchannel seems to have broken." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Scotia Capital China Update - (Steel) "We observe that the low output growth, together with surging exports, indicates that a de-stocking cycle is ongoing for steel. If the de-stocking continues, it will eventually result in low inventory, which will support steel prices in the domestic market in the months ahead."
• (MF Global) Global crude steel production was up 6.2% percent year-on-year in July at 117.2 million tons, this according to the International Iron and Steel Institute. July production was down 1.6% from 119 million tons in June as China's production dropped by 4.4% percent to almost 45 million tons. Production from 66 countries, accounting for more than 98% of total world crude steel production, was up 6.1% year-on-year to 815 million tons in the first seven months of 2008.
• China exported 1.724 million tons of ferroalloy in the first half of this year, up 8.5 percent year on year, with the growth rate down 50 percentage points.
• The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that for the month of June 2008, U.S. steel mills shipped 9,136,000 net tons, a 2.4 percent increase from the 8,920,000 net tons shipped in June 2007 and a 1.4 percent increase from the 9,008,000 net tons shipped in the previous month, May 2008. - more

  A little more than a year ago, nickel was the superstar of the commodities boom, trading at record levels above $23 (U.S.) a pound. - more

  Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel Corp., Japan's largest maker of the alloy, refused orders from wholesalers for nickel-based sheets to stem a rise in stocks that has helped push prices to an almost two-year low. - more

  BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc, the world's third-biggest producer of nickel, is not planning any changes to its Australian nickel-making operations, a company spokeswoman said, despite declining world prices for the metal. - more

  China's domestic market for nickel-based stainless sheets is