Updated twice daily before 8:00 am CST and by 1 pm CST

Thursday, July 31

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 47 to 8341. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index) (large java chart here)
• Metals started higher for the most part today, with the dollar slipping backwards. When the US woke up, the data it released was not well received. U.S. initial jobless claims jumped 44,000 to 448,000 - higher than expected. Then the US Commerce Department said growth rose 1.9% in the second quarter, lower than the 2.3% economists had forecast. Metals ended the day mixed, with base and precious mostly higher on the day. Nickel slid thru much of the day and Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day and month at $8.32/lb . Nimit Khamar from Sucden got excited by yesterday's gain, and added an up-trend line (TL3) on his daily chart here. Indicator charts show it was no more than a one day wonder, but you can't blame him for trying. We have gone quite a spell since we have had any trend lines on the chart heading any other direction than south. LME inventories got a break from the most recent flotilla of nickel carrying cargo ships, and registered a slight drop overnight.    
• Crude oil was kind of an interesting commodity story yesterday. Early in the day, the US reported gas inventories unexpectedly fell. This helped crude rise a little, but it soon backed off. But as you can see by this chart (java chart), something caused quite a little jump in the afternoon trading. What caused the sudden interest? Was it a hurricane? Terrorist attack? Refinery explosion? No. Right about the time you see prices jump, this was the hot news release "A bill that would put new limits on speculative trading in energy commodities failed to get the required two-third majority of votes to pass the House on Wednesday." The nearly $5 jump? We don't call that speculative buying. We call it market driven supply and demand. Uh-huh!  

  Commodity Comments

•  Russia's OAO Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest nickel producer by production volume, said Thursday its second-quarter nickel output fell 3% to 68,835 metric tons, down from 71,000 tons for the year-earlier period. They were quick to add nickel output rose 13.7 percent to 143,407 tonnes in the first half of 2008 from the same period in 2007.
• Anglo America expects production of nickel and metallurgical coal to double over the next three years. Anglo produced 45,000t of nickel in 2007 and forecast a CAGR of 22% for its output of the metal between 2008 and 2016.
• Rusal has denied a deal is being negotiated for a merger with Norilsk Nickel.
• According to preliminary data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, imports of stainless steel products in June fell 4.78% from May

  AK Steel has been entertaining sale talks with multiple parties, sources familiar with the situation told dealReporter. The company is interested in an all-cash transaction, and has informally been on the block for a couple of months, according to two sources with knowledge of discussions. - more

  Shareholders of PT International Nickel Indonesia INCO.JK, one of the world's top nickel producers, have approved a sharply higher cost estimate for a planned hyroelectric power plant, the company said on Thursday. - more

  Australia's Albidon Ltd. plans to expand its concentrator at its Zambia nickel mine after it is fully commissioned in 2009, the company said on Thursday. - more

  SA's International Trade Administration Commission (Itac) has begun antidumping investigations into stainless steel sink imports from China and Malaysia after local manufacturers claimed that almost half the product value of these imports came from state incentives. - more

  China will cancel export tax rebates on cadmium products and nickel-cadmium batteries from August 1, the State Administration of Taxation said on Thursday. - more

  Nippon Steel Corp and four other major Japanese steel makers have reached an agreement with Xstrata for a roughly 3.6-fold price hike for low-grade metallurgical coal, the Nikkei business daily reported on Thursday. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.02/lb lower. Dollar is lower this morning, and except for nickel, which is just slightly in the red, the metals complex is trading in the green. News is very light today. Eramet announced its 2008 nickel shipments from New Caledonia would be about the same as last year, at 55,000 tonnes. Considering the strike the SLN mines suffered during the latter part of all last year, this news must be disappointing to stockholders.
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Upturn in Global Stainless Steel Demand May Not Come Until Early 2009 - Demand is traditionally weak at this time of year, especially in Europe, as the stainless steel industry’s major customers close down for their summer holidays. - more

  Reports

• Oakvale Capital Daily Market Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource Plus - here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Base metals ended mixed yesterday in what was a fairly choppy session. .. Like zinc and lead before it, nickel staged a good short-covering rally, gaining more than 5% on the day. ... This morning, we are higher, but this time the strength is spread evenly across the board. .. We are at $18,800 on nickel, up $50, and quiet so far today after a solid day higher yesterday on what seemed to us to be a short-covering rally."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)

  La Societe Le Nickel, or SLN, Eramet S.A.'s subsidiary in New Caledonia, Thursday said it has lodged an application to mine a giant nickel deposit on the French-controlled island in the South Pacific after a French court in May annulled a permit held by Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO). - more

  On July 14, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty announced plans to protect at least 225,000 km² of the boreal forest in Northern Ontario. “Protect” will mean permanently removing the declared area from mineral exploration, mining and forestry. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - July 31 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Wednesday, July 30

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 46 to 8,388. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Dollar got a boost after a private-sector jobs report showed unexpected growth in US employment during July, and then fell back later as crude oil prices rebounded, on weekly data showing a smaller-than-expected drop in inventories. Indicator chart shows nickel spent most of the day climbing, with only a slight settling before the close. Sucden's daily chart showed nickel RSI fell below the 30 mark, implying heavily over-sold, but the analyst had forecast the day's trading would see the market head lower. (chart here). Delphi appears to have been a day early, when it wrote in yesterday's morning report  "This could break to a new higher level, coinciding with renewed interest in upside volume." Ed Meir, with MF Global, had nickel's Relative Strength Index even lower than Sucden at the start of the day, with a reading of 27, but reiterated he sees a test of $7.71/lb in the near future. Nickel inventories rose again overnight, and as we warned, the second wave of ships containing nickel from Russia is now arriving in European warehouses. Since last Thursday, inbound shipments, some rather large, have been recorded. Today was an apparent technical move, but traders are still reeling from Outokumpu's quarterly report from last Thursday that stated "Global growth in demand for stainless steel slowed towards the end of the second quarter and markets moved to oversupply. The quarter's apparent consumption of stainless steel is estimated to have remained almost flat in Europe and globally compared to I/2008. Market conditions were weaker in both Europe and Asia. In the US, demand for stainless continued to be at a low level.” Erkki Vesola, an analyst at eQ bank in Helsinki, commented on the quarterly report to a Bloomberg  reporter "The bigger disappointment was the guidance for the third quarter. It's hard to see any positives." Traders found at least one positive today, and Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.50/lb

  Reports

• TD Bank Quarterly Commodity Price Report  - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Citigroup Commodity Heap - "Producers have been seeking a by-product credit for pig iron. We believe they have captured ~6% of the value of by-product credit which lowers smelting costs by ~US$60/t (or 10%). If the full value for pig iron was captured Ni-in-pig would be a negative cash cost producer. We believe stainless mills wish to maintain Ni-in-pig supply and could pay increasing iron by-product credits to maintain supply....We estimate Ni-in-pig costs are now US$7.75/lb and set to move lower. We expect nickel to remain in surplus, forecast prices to average US$10.00/lb in 2009 and US$6.00/lb in 2010."

  Aa assembled panel of nuclear medicine experts says that new reactors and better communication are needed to ensure that Canada doesn’t repeat last year’s mistakes and risk the global supply of medical isotopes. - more

  China’s customs have called on to further strengthen the control over steel exports into a higher international steel market. China exported 21.72 million tons of steel products during the first five months, down 20.8% year-to-year, according to customs. - more

  Australia-based miner Mirabela will increase the size of a nickel mine under development in Brazil to yield 40 percent more nickel after it starts up next year, the company said on Wednesday. - more

  Rusina Mining NL said it has made three shipments of 160,418 wet metric tonnes at 1.7 percent nickel during the quarter ended June 28. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.11/lb higher. Dollar is trading higher, oil is quiet waiting on reports, and except for tin and nickel, base and precious metals are lower. What are not lower are nickel inventories stored in LME warehouses. The second wave of Russian nickel carrying ships began arriving in European ports this week.   
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• Oakvale Daily Market Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• Standard Bank Market Commentary - here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here
• AISI Press Release - June imports up 7% - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "Base metals fell on Tuesday, (except for lead), giving up most of Monday's gains, as the dollar abruptly switched course, and rose to a one-month high against the euro. Weakness in energy prices and a rally in the US stock market did not help matters much either, reinforcing the notion that the air was coming out of the commodity bubble. ... Metals are down again at the time of this writing, as the dollar is holding on to its gains, and trading just below 1.56 against the Euro. ...  We are at $18,424 on nickel, up $374, and quiet so far today; we are still looking for an eventual downside test of $17,000."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• China's stainless steel market has seen a slump this year on oversupply and a slowdown in downstream consumption, Jinchuan Group Ltd., Asia's largest nickel producer, said in a statement on July 29
• The conventional wisdom on Australian miners is that because of the Chinese demand for resources, our mining stocks will perform well despite the tough times in Western economies. - more

  Nicked by Nickel Stainless Recovers - Following the collapse of nickel pricing and unprecedented worldwide liquidation of stainless inventories, specialty metals producers and distributors see healthy demand in most end-use markets going forward. - more

  Global Steel Prices Starting to Plateau - Autumn Correction Probable - more

  The metallurgical plant Goro Nickel in New Caledonia will enter well into production by the end of 2008, confirmed Monday one of the leaders of its parent company, the Brazilian mining group Vale, despite protests from opponents of the project. - translated article here

  Mining group Xstrata posted mixed first-half production data on Wednesday, with slightly weaker output in two key metals, but forecast a strong rise in the second half. - more

• Company press release - here

  BHP Billiton Starts Operation At Cliffs Mine / Australia To Produce 360,000 Tons / Year Of Nickel Ore = Manganese Project At Gemco / Australia Is Scheduled To Commence Production In 2nd Half 2009 - more

  Record-high metals prices have done little to slow production of steel-intensive mining equipment. Experts say surging global demand for coal, iron ore and other commodities should fuel mining—and the need for giant earthmoving equipment—for years to come. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - July 30 - here
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Tuesday, July 29

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 79 to 8434. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• The market was fairly quiet until the US Conference Board announced consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in June (here). This gave a boost to the dollar, and this coupled with falling oil prices, put downward pressure on the metals complex today. Only lead was able to pull off a finish in the green. Equity stocks were back up today on the above news, and we found this statement by Kevin Giddis, managing director of Morgan Keegan & Co to MarketWatch to be especially inspiring, "Oil is falling, the stock market is rising and the dollar is getting stronger. These are good things and when you combine that with relatively low rates, maybe we can be happy at least one day this week." Not quite the inspirational speech you would expect from someone like a Winston Churchill, but it does reflect the uncertainty of the times we live in. If it wasn't for the billionaires fighting amongst themselves over Norilsk, the nickel industry would have little to talk about. They fight, and somehow, it's still the little guy that ends up bleeding. Some analysts seem to be convinced that when the magical price for pig nickel profitability is finally reached, perfumed pigeons, sprinkling gold dust, will suddenly appear, and all will be well in the land of Nickel Refineous. It is interesting to note on Ed Meir's daily report, that he posts the high and low point for nickel over the past few years. In 2007, nickel traded within a range of $24,800 to $51,800, a 52% difference. So far this year nickel has traded within a range of $18,180 to $35,150, a range of 48%. It is also worth noting on Sucden's 10 year chart, located at the bottom of the page here, that nickel spent the better part of 2004, 2005, and the early months of 2006 in a 'bull market', trading between $4.74/lb and $8.05/lb. Where is it heading? Don't ask us. We are still pouting our $10/lb forecast didn't hold. It was a nice quiet, round number, that everyone was either happy with, or could have grown to love. But traders can't make money in a sideways market, so it was not to be. Dow Jones reports today, that three month nickel ended the day at $8.16/lb . 

  Reports

• Reuters Metals Weekly - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• (Metal First) - Power supply for China's ferrochrome production has been reduced recently, while sales remain brisk. Potential exists for further price increases if plant stocks are depleted.  
• What happened to my commodities boom? Didn't Jim Rogers promise me wealth beyond the dreams of avarice, if only I believed? - more

  European stainless surcharges continue to drop, at least for austenitic grades. For 304 Stainless, margins that averaged 1636-1887 € / ton in July, are set at 1554-1747 € / ton in August. Outokumpu AAF prices for August can be found (pdf here) ThyssenKrupp Nirosta posts theirs here, and provides historical prices back to 2003 here

  Oleg Deripaska’s bid to take control of Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s premier mining company, came to an end on Monday at a meeting in Moscow.  - more

• Norilsk Nickel's largest shareholder has offered an old ally of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the post of chief executive at the world's largest nickel miner, an official said on Tuesday. - more
• The head of the Russian state tourism agency has consented to a provisional offer from Norilsk Nickel to become chief executive of the metals giant, the agency said on Tuesday. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.14/lb lower. For the most part, precious and industrial metals are lower in trading so far today.    
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more

  Reports

• Oakvale Capital Market Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here
• Canada Commodity Price Update - pdf here
• TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price Report - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Base metals were steady on Monday, with lead and zinc leading the way, and pulling the rest of the group higher. Lead continued its stunning advance, up another 5% yesterday, as LME stocks fell to six-week lows, while there was also a sharp rise in cancelled warrants. Zinc, on the other hand, pushed higher in what seemed to be a massive short-covering rally. Nickel was also stronger, as with an RSI of 28 yesterday, it was technically oversold. ...There is not much change in the dollar so far today, which is holding steady against the Euro. ... We are at $18,635 on nickel, down $115. Charts still look weak despite yesterday’s rally, and we are looking for an eventual downside push to $17,000." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)

  Demand For Stainless Steel In Western Europe May Turn Round To Raise = View By Acerinox, Net Profit At This Spanish Company For 1st Half / 08 Decreased By 62% - more

  Jinchuan Group Ltd., Asia's biggest producer of nickel, may expand into stainless-steel production to boost sales. - more

  OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel may replace the chief executive officer appointed this month with an associate of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as Russia's largest mining company seeks to secure government support. - more

• Norilsk Nickel 's largest shareholder has offered an old ally of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin the post of chief executive at the world's largest nickel miner, an official said on Tuesday.  - more

  China's domestic steel market has seen soft demand recently with coming of a dead season for construction steel consumption, dragging the prices slightly down. But according to the analysts, the enterprises' production cost, international price surge and other factors would restrict the downward room for future steel price. - more

  Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending July 26 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,142,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 89.8 percent. Production was 2,059,000 tons in the week ending July 26, 2007, while the capability utilization then was 87.0 percent. The current week production represents a 4.1 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending July 26, 2008 is up 1.4 percent from the previous week ending July 19, 2008 when production was 2,114,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 88.6 percent."

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - July 29 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Monday, July 28

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 124 to 8,513. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• It appeared it would be another day of bleeding for nickel, with indicator charts showing nickel down early this morning US time, and early afternoon London time. But the same charts show at around the $8.30/lb mark, buyers took interest and drove nickel back into the green, where it held. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.48/lb . The day's trading began with fundamentals reporting the market was oversold. MF Global had RSI at 27 this morning, while Sucden placed it at 31.9, both fairly strong indicators of an oversold position. Lot of speculation on what effect these prices are having on Chinese pig nickel production again. Besides the analysts, we posted a story below directly from China, and although its hard to read (translated that is), it is interesting. Pig nickel has made quite an impression in its short two year history. Had you listened to most of the analysts in 2006, it was nothing more than a stop gap measure that would soon disappear, and have no impact on the world market. Had you listened to the analysts over the last few years, then at $16/lb, then $14/lb, then $12/lb, then $10/b, pig nickel production would become unprofitable and disappear. Now, as we near the $8/lb mark, some are saying it could be any day now. There could be hope for the analysts yet, although from outside factors. Over the weekend, China held the official opening to the Olympic Village, and while the grand ceremony went off without a hitch, it gave the world a peek into what was coming. And everyone was staring into the smog covered sky and wondering if a peek was all they might get. China has already taken some huge measures to cut down on air pollution in Beijing for these games, and after this embarrassing incident, we expect them to take even more drastic measures. Smog is all the media has been talking about for months and this weekend's episode, isn't going to help shift their attention. If it's energy intensive, polluting, not necessary for the Games, and located where it "might" feed smog into the area around Beijing, China, it has to be in jeopardy of being shut down. Anyone ever heard of an entire country shutting completely down during an Olympics?     

  Commodity Comments

• (IHT) - "We're in a commodities liquidation mode," said Richard Feltes, senior vice president and director of commodities research for MF Global in Chicago. "People are heading to the sidelines, basically saying 'let's see how this turmoil is going to shake out.'"
• (Platts) - William Adams - "At these levels nickel pig iron production is likely to be curtailed significantly and with LME stocks now trending lower again, prices do seem to be getting increasingly oversold."
• (Dow Jones) - "A significant portion of nickel pig iron production in China will be suffering losses based on current prices, says Barclays Capital, especially given high cost pressures. Expects a dramatic cutback in production over the coming months, with the "crunch point" being how much can be cut back before the market begins to tighten. Nickel pig iron represents about 10% of all nickel output but is at the top end of the cost curve."
• (MarketWatch) - Gary Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, believes the credit crunch will continue for several quarters and could still get worse, according to an interview with the Financial Times newspaper. Stern said that with its core interest rate at 2%, the Fed is well-placed to cope with further weakness in the economy, but is less well-positioned to cope with further increases in inflation, according to the newspaper. He added that headwinds to the economy haven't diminished and are possible getting worse, setting the stage for a lengthy period of weakness like that seen in the early 1990s, the report added.
• Philip Falcone, who heads the $US23 billion ($A24 billion) US hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, has declared he remains bullish on commodities. - more
• If you were long silver, wheat and base metals at the start of 2008, you have my deepest sympathy. - more

  Japan's Kobe Steel Ltd. and other steelmaking and plant engineering companies are changing the way they charge clients to better reflect the rising cost of basic materials, the Nikkei reported on Monday, without citing sources. - more

  China and Myanmar reached a production sharing contract in Nay Pyi Taw Monday to produce nickel in Myanmar's northern Mandalay division. - more

  The current price of electrolytic nickel prices lower than the nickel-iron - translated article here

  Price volatility, intensified by tight supplies, is expected to persist for base metals over the short-to-medium terms. However, mining costs are taking their toll on margins. - more

  Frustrated in bidding against global rivals over costly iron ore assets, South Korea's POSCO is taking a different approach to diversification -- looking to buy up one of its biggest customers to secure future demand. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.05/lb lower. Sucden's chart tells the story thru Friday, as nickel traders continue to sell the market lower (here). Sucden has support at $17,750/tonne and $17,050/tonne, while MF Global has it at $17,000/tonne. Nickel inventories took another huge jump overnight, with European warehouses starting to show evidence of a second wave of inbound shipments arriving. We are once again in that period where stainless steel users/distributors/producers step back to let the nickel traders figure out where the price of nickel will settle. Large investments in stainless steel stock carries extra risk when raw material prices are declining, and after being burnt badly last year, and in years past, stainless steel distributors buy as they need during price swings.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more

  Reports

• Oakvale Capital Market Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource Plus - here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here
• Haywood Securities Metals & Mining Weekly - pdf here
• August 2008 Scrap Metals Market Watch - here
• India bulls Daily Metals & Energy - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "We had another mixed session on Friday, with nickel hitting a two-year low and lead losing ground as well, but copper and ali both managed to end up in positive territory despite nagging fears about slowing demand. ... The dollar is weaker today, while crude oil prices are higher on a spate of geopolitical headlines. Against this backdrop, we could see metals end up on a steady note for the balance of the day, but we still suspect that we have not completely exhausted the downside probe of the trading ranges just yet, particularly in copper and ali...We are at $18,265 on nickel, down $185, with the selling picking up in the last thirty minutes or so, and resulting in earlier gains being wiped out. We look quite weak on the charts, as we note, and are still looking for an eventual downside push to $17,000. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• SG - China remained the world's number one producer of stainless steel in 2007 accounting for more than one quarter of 27.6 million tonnes of global output. China had overtaken Japan as the world's biggest stainless steel producer in 2006 with 6.6 million tonnes in 2006 up by 21.7% YoY. Japan followed China as the second largest producer in 2007 with an output of 3.7 million tonnes. In 2006, China's per capita stainless steel consumption hit 4.6 kilograms, rising above the world average of 4.3 kilograms. China produced 7.206 million tonnes of stainless steel in 2007 up by 1.906 million tonnes or 35.96% YoY.
• Comment - If you missed it, the official opening of the Beijing Olympic Village was held yesterday, and all the media could talk about was the thick smog that encompassed the ceremony. Despite the measures that have been taken to cut down on pollution, this incident may force the government to take even more drastic action.
• Steelguru - China's biggest maker of the rust resistant alloy Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co said that it plans to produce more goods with a low nickel content. Outokumpu Oyj also said that distributors postponed purchases because of the nickel price decline and softening demand in construction.

  Nickel had its biggest weekly decline in London in four months as stainless-steel mills, the biggest users of the metal, said demand is weakening. - more

  China Securities Journal reported that China's domestic steel market has seen soft demand recently with coming of a dead season for construction steel consumption, dragging the prices slightly down. But according to the analysts, the enterprises' production cost, international price surge and other factors would restrict the downward room for future steel price. - more

  Anglo American plc announced that it is on schedule to complete its Barro Alto nickel project by early 2010. - more

  It is reported that China ferromolybdenum export to different countries during June 2008 total 628 tonnes while in January to June 2008 reach 4,223 tonnes. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - July 28 - here
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Friday, July 25

• Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.34/lb .
• Apologies for the short and/or delayed wrap-up's the last few days. Battling a painful illness, although yet undiagnosed, and time online during the day has been extremely limited. Hopefully, we'll be back to par on Monday and can resume normal coverage. Hope you all have a restful and safe weekend!  

  Prime Advantage, a buying consortium for midsized industrial manufacturers, announced the findings of its second Group Outlook Survey, revealing the top economic concerns for the second half (H2) of 2008. - more

  Russian miner Norilsk Nickel will challenge an outgoing executive over ownership of several metals deposits he plans to take with him to a new company created by former Norilsk co-owner Mikhail Prokhorov. - more

  OAO Mechel, Russian billionaire Igor Zyuzin's coal and steel producer, declined to comment on a rebuke by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that wiped $6 billion off the company's market value. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.0/lb unchanged. After starting lower, indicator charts show nickel has climbed back to near where it started. Market nickel bears have been brutalized the last few days, and apparently their animal cousins are taking revenge on one group of miners. If you are having one of those Friday's where the weekend just can't come quick enough, it can always get worse. "Bad weather is thwarting efforts to rescue a group of mine workers trapped by hungry bears in Russia's wild far eastern region of Kamchatka. The bears have already eaten two of the workers." - more (this is just wrong!)
• Nickel trims losses after touching 2-yr low - more
• Baltic Dry Index - minus 135 to 8637. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)

  Nickel Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since May as Demand Slumps - "Nickel headed for the biggest weekly decline in London since May as stainless-steel mills, the biggest users of the metal, said demand is weakening." - more

  Reports

• Oakvale Capital Financial Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• Standard Bank Market Comment - here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "Base metal prices were pounded yesterday, with nickel taking the lead, and falling to a two-year low to finish below $19,000/MT. Deteriorating chart patterns and continued concern about weak stainless demand weighed on the complex. In the latter regard, stainless steel producer Outokumpu said it expected delivery volumes in the third quarter to fall, and expressed concern about the outlook for 2009. Not helping matters either, was another set of dismal US housing figures, where existing home sales in June fell to a 10-year low.... This morning, we are slightly higher in most metals, but this seems to us to be a technical bounce after yesterday’s deep selloff. We suspect that we have further to go on the downside, as some of the key support levels within broad trading ranges have yet to be reached. ... We are at $18,800 on nickel, up $25, and quiet after yesterday’s sharp selloff. We still expect our $17,000 target to be eventually achieved on the downside. "(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Reuters - "Jinchuan Group, China's largest nickel producer, cut spot prices by 11 percent to 155,000 yuan a tonne on Friday, reflecting the lower international prices. But Chinese nickel prices are still higher than international prices, implying that imports could pick up in the near future. Chinese nickel imports have already risen 21 percent in the first half of the year, as steadily falling international prices allowed traders and consumers to restock."

  In order to offset losses in its stainless steel business, Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp will begin production of carbon steel plate in June and expect receiving orders next month. - more

  Kazakh Deputy Finance Minister Daulet Ergozhin said investors risk losing licenses should they fail to pay taxes as the government seeks more revenue from commodity industries. - more

  Vietnam's recent decision to increase the tax levied on nickel concentrate exports to 20 percent will probably not have much effect on China's nickel industry, though some Chinese investments, such as Jinchuan Group Ltd.'s Ban Phuc project, will be impacted, an analyst told Interfax on July 25 - more

  New nickel projects to be proceeded in Western Australia are scheduled to use laterite ore and, therefore, many cases aim to industrialize the projects by application of PAL process but, owing to the steeply risen price of sulfuric acid in the international market emerged from the beginning of 2008, the estimated cost for nickel production is being changed by an unforeseen occurrence. This matter has been multiplied by a fall of the international market price of nickel at present. - more

  The Chinese Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) Ramu Nickel Cobalt Limited has overcome its final hurdle by executing the financing documents to fund the billion-kina Ramu project. - more

  The so-called divorce of Mikhail Prokhorov and Vladimir Potanin has reached the court. ONEXIM chief Prokhorov lodged a suit to the Moscow Arbitration Court, seeking protection for his business reputation. - more

  Have a reader requesting today's cost per ton of 9% nickel steel. Reader is involved in the construction of barges and LNG ships here in the US. If any suppliers reading this can shoot me a number, I will forward to the reader along with your contact info. Please title your e-mail "Nickel steel", as we have intermittent problems with our e-mail.

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - July 25 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Thursday, July 24

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 85 to 8771. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $8.50/lb . 

  Nickel Falls Most in Two Months in London as Mills Cut Usage - more

• Nickel Drops for Third Day in London as Steel Mills Cut Usage - more

  Commodity Comments

• Bloomberg - "Consumers are waiting to buy nickel at about $15,000 a ton, according to Charles Cooper, a mining analyst at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London."
• Bloomberg - "Shangxi Taigang slashed output of crude stainless steel by half in May, and is keeping production unchanged at 170,000 tons a month in June and July, the company said."

  Outokumpu Oyj, the world's fourth- biggest stainless steel maker, declined the most in at least 18 years in Helsinki trading after profit missed analyst estimates and it said construction demand is weaker. - more

  Billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov's Onexim Group said Thursday that it would invest $10 billion over the next five years in a new company, Intergeo, to develop the mining assets he received from former partner Vladimir Potanin. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.29/lb lower. Dollar is slightly higher this morning, with metals mixed. LME warehouses nickel stores gained overnight for the first time in nearly two weeks. Japanese ferronickel producer has shut down its plant after a 6.8 magnitude earthquake strikes Japan, but so far this has done nothing more than halt nickel's morning price decline. You can see by Sucden's bi-hourly chart, where the sentiment turned yesterday (here) You can also tell by the chart that the Relative Strength Index shows 9.6, which implies significantly oversold, and the Slow Stochastic numbers (SSK & SSD) also reflect market is oversold. The technicals are bullish, but the market refuses to listen. Nimit Khamar has support at $18,950 ($8.60/lb) while Ed Meir from MF Global has it at $17,000 ($7.71/lb)
• Bloomberg morning metal news - "Nickel Falls 3rd Day in London; Stainless-Steel Mills Cut Usage" - more

  Reuters - Nickel hits 2-year low on soft stainless steel demand - more

  Reports

• Oakvale Capital Financial Markets Report- pdf here
• KBC Commodities report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - here
• Standard Bank Market Comment - here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here
• GFMS Nickel Market Analysis - here
• Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Market Report - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "We had another mixed session yesterday in base metals, with copper, ali, nickel and tin, all falling sharply, while lead and zinc bucked the downward trend to close higher. ... We are off to a generally lower start in metals today, with nickel and tin looking the weakest in the group, while the rest of the metals are not doing much of anything. Nickel has pierced the $20,000 mark and is headed lower in our view, while tin has failed to take out key $23,750 resistance despite repeated attempts, and has been looking sluggish for some time now. ... We are at $19,525 on nickel, down $425, and quiet. Charts still look weak to us, and we expect the $17,000 target to be eventually achieved on the downside. Keep in mind that nickel prices have averaged $9600 during the 10-year period between 1996-$2006, and so prices, while off sharply from their 2007 highs, are still relatively high."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• China's nickel ore imports will slow further in the second half of the year as domestic nickel pig iron producers cut back production, an industry analyst told Interfax July 24. - more
• China Metallurgical Construction Group Corp., a state-owned construction company, agreed to borrow $1.37 billion to finance the Ramu nickel mine in Papua New Guinea, its Australian mining partner said. The project remains on schedule to start operations in the first half of 2009 and produce about 31,150 metric tons of nickel annually. - more

  Japanese ferronickel producer Pacific Metals has closed its ferronickel production plant located in the Hachinohe City in northeastern Japan following an earthquake early Thursday, the company said. - more

• Rescue teams searched in dense fog and rain Thursday for victims of a powerful earthquake in northern Japan that left more than 120 people injured, some of them seriously. - more
• A powerful earthquake struck Japan on early Thursday morning injuring as much as 102 people and wrecking 31 buildings in the northern regions of the island, authorities said. - more
• USGS Map and Report - here

  Outokumpu Oyj, the world's fourth- biggest stainless steel maker, declined the most in at least 18 years in Helsinki trading after profit missed analyst estimates and it said construction demand is weaker. - more

  Philippine nickel ore exports to China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, plunged 80 percent in June as lower prices of refined nickel and energy shortages cut production of nickel pig iron. - more

  Jindal Stainless Ltd. of India announced in 5 years ago the project to construct a new plant in Vishakhapatnam of Orissa State for production of ferro-chrome (with its final phase to produce 150,000 tons / year) but the wall for this project is how to secure chrome ore as raw material and the project has faced a difficulty. However, the materialization of this project is supposed to have taken a step forward. - more

  The EU flat products' market continues to be characterized by supply tightness and rising prices in a climate of relatively flat demand. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - July 24 - here
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Wednesday, July 23

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 48 to 8856. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Forgive us if we seem to be mumbling today. The 'Kentucky Fried Crow' we are eating for lunch today, is a tough bird to swallow. For the first time since June 2006, cash nickel fell below the $20,000/ton level. Nickel started off trading only slightly down, and for a while, it appeared it might hold onto our support level of $20,500/tonne for another day. As of yesterday, we were still holding the line (chart here) But as the dollar continued to climb, nickel finally buckled to the pressure and slumped sharply in afternoon trading. And except for lead and zinc, the rest of the metals complex traded down as well. Nickel stored in LME inventories slipped again overnight, falling to their lowest level since November 21st of last year. The 43+ thousand tonnes still in storage however, reflects a very healthy stock. Considering Ed Meir and Nimit Khamar both showed the RSI in the upper 30's range this morning, reflecting the market started the day oversold, we are a little surprised at the rate of decline today. Ed has strong support at $7.71/lb, while Nimit had a support of $9.06/lb posted this morning. That will probably be changed, as Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended today at $9.05/lb . 
• Commodities Fall to 7-Week Low as Investors Shun Energy, Metals - more

  Reports

• Piping Equipment Stainless Steel Market News - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Bloomberg - "Nickel is headed for a second consecutive annual drop, after last year's 21% decline as stainless steel mills resorted to products containing less nickel. Mr Charles Cooper an analyst at Evolution Securities Ltd said that prices may have to fall to about USD 15,000 a tonne to lure back consumers."

  China January thru June 2008 import and export nickel statistics

• Exports of refined nickel - Statistics show China exported 72.91% less refined nickel during the first six months of 2008. The largest destination of Hong Kong has seen a 20.26% drop, while much smaller destinations of Singapore and Thailand have seen 465.72% and 403.61% increases. South Korea hs seen a 98.39% drop in Chinese exports.
• Imports of refined nickel - Statistics show China imported 21.1% more refined nickel during the first six months of 2008. China's primary source is Russia, which has seen a 150.88% increases, while its second largest source, Canada, saw a 5.67% decrease. #3 Australia showed a 27.58% decrease. The largest increase in imports came from South Africa, at 206.57%, which supplies only about 11% of what Russia does, which supplies about 1/3 of all refined nickel exported into China.
• Imports of nickel ore - Statistics show China imported 26.07% more nickel ore during the first six months of 2008. The largest supplier, Indonesia, saw its exports to China increase by 85.28%, while #2 Philippines, saw their exports shrink by 26.03%. #3 New Caledonia, also saw a decline of 48.03%. Two thirds of nickel ore imported into China originates in Indonesia.

  (excerpt) BHP did not break out the production figures for Ravensthorpe since it produces an intermediary product, but the Herald understands it produced 9100 tonnes of contained nickel in the year to June 30. - more

  Recently, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty made an announcement concerning the launch of the Far North Planning Process. A land use plan for the Far North has been requested by various groups for years and the lead up to this announcement has taken some time. - more

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:40 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.09/lb lower. Dollar continues to gain this morning, which is putting downward pressure on both the industrial and precious metals complex. Indicators show all except lead and zinc are trading lower at press time, and those two are just slightly higher. 
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• The Economic Times - here
• The Guardian - here

  Reports

• Oakvale Daily Market Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - here
• Standard Bank Market Comment - here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here
• Price WaterhouseCoopers - Intertwined: the physical and the financial - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -  "Metals ended mixed yesterday after the dollar turned over the course of the day and pushed higher. The about-face came about on remarks made by a Federal Reserve official suggesting that U.S. interest rates may have to rise sooner rather than later. Not helping matters either, was a struggling energy complex, as prices saw steep declines when Tropical Storm Dolly, (now upgraded to a hurricane), veered well clear of the US refinery belt. ... This morning, we are broadly lower in all the metals except in zinc, as a stronger dollar and crashing oil prices weigh on the complex. ... We are at $20,450 on nickel, down $50, and quiet. We are still holding above $20,000 mark, but charts still look weak." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Jim Lennon, analyst at Macquarie Bank - "We see weaker stainless steel demand coming through and we see the nickel pig iron producers in China still ramping up production"
• Bloomberg reports that Cia Vale do Rio Doce "Vale" had its profit estimates cut by Citigroup Inc because of lower nickel prices.
• Base metals have broken free of any bullish trend affecting the complex as a whole. Fundamentals dominate – prices in tight markets remain firm, while the price of metals with easing supply conditions has weakened. - more

  Philippine nickel ore exports to China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, plunged 80 percent in June as lower prices of refined nickel and energy shortages cut production of nickel pig iron. - more

  Posco plans to increase crude steel output by 29 percent to meet rising demand from shipbuilders and automakers, seeking to overtake Nippon Steel Corp. as the world's second-largest steelmaker. - more

  Highland Pacific will receive $US1.37 billion from its joint venture partner for the Ramu nickel project in Papua New Guinea. - more

  Jindal Stainless Ltd. of India announced in 5 years ago the project to construct a new plant in Vishakhapatnam of Orissa State for production of ferro-chrome (with its final phase to produce 150,000 tons / year) but the wall for this project is how to secure chrome ore as raw material and the project has faced a difficulty. However, the materialization of this project is supposed to have taken a step forward. - more

  BHP Billiton Ltd., trying to buy Rio Tinto Group for $150 billion, forecast iron ore production would rise 23 percent this fiscal year after reporting record quarterly output today because of demand driven by China. - more

  Billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov has filed a defamation suit against former business partner Vladimir Potanin and The Moscow Times to defend his business reputation, a spokeswoman for the Moscow Arbitration Court said Tuesday. - more

• Karnataka Department of Mines and Geology Officials busted an alleged racket of illegal transportation of iron ore using fake documents had seized about 48 trucks and arrested 43 persons in this connection at Surathkal, about 20 km from here yesterday. - more

  Two members of Plug Power Inc.'s board of directors are stepping down by the end of the month. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - July 23 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Tuesday, July 22

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 57 to 8904. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• It was very quiet on the news front today, and for the most part, so were the markets. The dollar slumped early against the euro, where it was nearing record levels when we published our morning update. Then Charles Plosser, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, told a Philadelphia business group, that the US interest rate hikes should be given serious consideration in the near future. This turned the dollar around and quickly into the green, which in turn, helped take crude oil prices lower, which in turn helped push the Dow higher, even though higher interest rates are typically frowned on by Wall Street. Another victim of the rising dollar was metals, which ended the day mostly lower. Nickel was no exception, but it fought to maintain its grip on our invisible support line of $20,501/tonne (chart here). Note - Yesterday, Sucden added a new support line at $20,395/tonne. Indicator charts show nickel traded in a very narrow band today, with another fair sized reduction in LME warehouse stocks overnight, the primary bullish news of the day. LME nickel inventories had fallen 8.7% this year, as of last Friday, although they remain very high. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at $9.30/lb , two cents lower than yesterday's close.  

  Reports

• Canada Commodity Price Update - pdf here

  Speculation that Cuba's relations with Venezuela, its closest ally, might cool when Raul Castro became president has disappeared as the countries have forged even deeper and broader ties. - more

  Courtesy AISI - "In the week ending July 19 2008, domestic raw steel production was 2,114,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 88.6 percent. Production was 2,059,000 tons in the week ending July 19, 2007, while the capability utilization then was 87.0 percent. The current week production represents a 2.7 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending July 19, 2008 is up 1.6 percent from the previous week ending July 12, 2008 when production was 2,081,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 87.2 percent."

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $ (no change) . Indicator charts show nickel was up earlier, but has since backtracked. Except for tin, the rest of the metals complex is trading in the green this morning, thanks in part to the dollar, which is near a record low against the Euro. Considering the support the dollar should be giving nickel this morning, and its inability to hold an early morning rally, nickel could be in trouble. No daily comment or report from Ed Meir at MF Global. And we featured two forecasts, from opposite points of view, so pick your poison.  
• Bloomberg morning metal news - more
• Reuters - more

  Nickel Prices to Fall as Steelmakers Cut Purchases - "Nickel prices may average as much as 46 percent lower this year as steelmakers increased production of low-nickel content products, said Jindal Stainless Ltd., India's largest stainless steel producer." - more

• Nickel expected to rally above $30,000/ton in Q4 - "Summer vacations are not only dragging down market demand but also market sentiment remains poor with the global economy badly impacted by the sky-high oil price which is triggering soaring global inflation today." - more

  Reports

• Haywood Securities Commodity Price Revisions - pdf here
• Oakvale Daily Market Report - pdf here
• KBC Commodities report - pdf here
• Daily Resource Plus - here
• BBVA Commodity Observatory - pdf here
• TD Bank Weekly Commodity Price report - pdf here
• India Metals & Energy Commentary - pdf here
• FDC Daily Monitor - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - no metals commentary from MF Global today
• Cash nickel is also seen falling further than forecast at the start of the year, as stocks of the metal have risen and demand from the stainless steel market has fallen behind expectations. - more

  Spanish steelmaker Acerinox expects stainless steel demand to pick up in September, it said on Monday after reporting a 62 percent tumble in first-half net profit due to weaker base metal prices. - more

  Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 15th July 2008 = Producers Have Intention To Rise Price Of Charge Chrome For Shipments In Q4 / 08 - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - Jul 22 - more
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Monday, July 21

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 51 to 8,961. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• US markets opened higher this morning after yet another large bank announced its quarterly profits had not fallen as low as the experts had predicted. But later it retreated, as investors tried to figure out what the market was doing. Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management, told Marketwatch, "A lot of people are skeptical about what is going on in the overall market". And noteworthy to commodity investors, he added "Last week's uptick in financials, a gain of 11.4%, coincided with an 11.4% loss in the energy sector. It is telling you that money is being shifted around in the stock market, rather than new money coming in." More and more analysts have been suggesting recently, that the stock markets and commodities markets are fighting over some of the same investment dollars lately, and Pavlik's comment does suggest there maybe a slight correlation building, even if limited to equities. It would be interesting to know how many millions, if not billions of dollars, in American 401K plans have been pulled out of funds in recent months, and have been sidelined until holders feel the bleeding is over. Dollar was trading up and down today, but was falling as we published this wrap-up. Oil was up nearly $2 barrel after Iranian nuclear talks ended with no change. Metals were mostly trading in the green today, with only platinum in the precious, and tin in the industrial, showing slightly in the red. With the next support level set at $17,000/tonne, nickel traders appear to be aggressively trying to hold onto the $20,500/tonne mark. As you can see on this chart by Sucden thru Friday (here), the indicator lines all point south, but the market has spent most of the month trading between $20,395 and $21,500/tonne. We thought we were going to be dining on crow ala mode today, after indicator charts show the $20,501 line fell Friday, but those same charts show we have climbed back to, or over, that level today. The market is giving the appearance of a struggling swimmer trying to keep their head above water, but for every shark in the water, there are just as many lifeboat's. And any farmer worth his salt, will warn you to never turn your back on a bull, or for that matter, a bear. Inventories of nickel stored in LME warehouses slipped again overnight, although by much less than in recent days. Indicator charts show three month nickel jumped nearly $400 tonne in early morning trading, then slipped back to half that, where it spent the rest of the day rangebound. For the day, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended at $9.32/lb .    

  Commodity Comments

• Australia's third largest listed nickel producer, Mincor Resources NL, has started production at its eighth mine in the Kambalda district of Western Australia, the McMahon nickel mine.

  Mining heavyweight Compania Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) expects continuing strong demand for its products thanks to solid growth in emerging countries, which it hopes will help it weather the slowdown in the U.S. - more

Nice graph from International Ferro Metals Limited 5/2008 report showing why stainless steel prices are NOT falling as fast as nickel is

Entire Report with more graphs - pdf here

  Bookmark - Designer Handbook - Stainless Steel Fasteners - pdf here

  Morning Briefing (8:00 AM CST is 2 PM in London)

• Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around $.09/lb higher. Traders appear to still be fighting to hold the $20,501/tonne mark we keep harping on, but it is beginning to appear the analysts may be right, and it may not hold. Dollar was down early, and while still selling down against the Euro, it appears to be recovering some lost ground. Indicators show tin the only base or precious metal not selling higher this morning.    
• Forbes morning metal news - more

  Nickel Gains in London as Stockpiles Decline to 8-Month Low - "Nickel rose in London, rebounding from a two-year low, as stockpiles of the metal used in stainless steel declined to the smallest in eight months, indicating supply is slowing." - more

  Reports

• CommerzBank Commodities Daily - pdf here (Friday)
• Oakvale Capital Financial Report - pdf here
• The Daily Resource - here
• South Africa Iron & Steel Institute 2nd Quarter 2008 - pdf here
• July 2008 Molybdenum Letter - pdf here
• Canada Mineral and Metal Commodity Reviews - Nickel 2006 - pdf here

  Commodity Comments

• Ed Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - This morning, we are off to a mostly higher start in metals, as a weaker dollar and higher oil are both pushing prices higher.... Despite the early strength in metals, most charts patterns remain uninspiring. Moreover, if oil prices start to fade again, (likely in our view despite the current bounce), the downward pressure on metals could resume. .. We are at $20,600 on nickel, up $200, and still holding above $20,000 mark. However, our charts suggest that we could push lower from here if that psychological level gives way. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report here)
• Lehman Brothers forecasts nickel to average $25,480/ton in 2008, down from a previous estimate of $27,580/ton
• Japanese Iron and Steel Association statistics show that in May, Japan's exported 123,700 tons of stainless steel materials. 10.% higher than April and 4.3% higher than last year.
• According to customs, China exported 5.22 million tons of steel products in June, down 340,000 tons or 6.1% from May and 1.14 million tons or 17.9% year-on-year, exported 20,000 tons of billet and 1.5 million tons of coke.
• Christopher Knight of Delphi Metals - "Nickel's short term direction - Base building (watch for upside breakout)"
• The State Grid Corp. of China said that the thermal coal stockpiles slipped by 8 percent over two weeks, thus worsening a nationwide electricity shortfall. (more on coal's bright future - here)
• Are Commodities Reversing or Consolidating? - more

  OZ Minerals Ltd., the world's second- largest zinc producer, started output of nickel concentrate from its Avebury mine in Tasmania state. - more

  The Indonesian government and PT International Nickel Indonesia are renegotiating royalty on nickel produced by the subsidiary of the Canadian-based INCO Limited. - more

  The chairman of BHP Billiton has issued a veiled warning to the Australian government that its natural resources could end up being owned by the Chinese if regulators do not allow the miner to take over Rio Tinto. - more

  Armed with nothing more than a rod and reel, Andy Murphy is an unlikely environmental warrior, waging a fight against a plan to dump thousands of tonnes of mining waste into a trout pond in southeastern Newfoundland. - more

  China's nonferrous metals industry will remain downbeat in the second half of this year, with rising costs and weak consumption, according to a report by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA) released July 17. - more

  World crude steel production for the 66 countries reporting to the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) was 118.8 million metric tons (mmt) in June. This is 5.9% higher than the same month last year. - pdf report here

  (not nickel, but potentially related) Armed men raided a foreign-controlled copper-and-gold mine in the southern Philippines, burning a drill rig, the owners said Monday. - more

  Morning Nickel Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures

• London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (charts and archives)
• (Metals Insider has discontinued publishing until Aug 11)
• Today's almost official prices here  /  Yesterday's actual LME official prices here (chart)
• Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available here   (charts)
• India Metals Prices - Delhi - Jul 21 - here
• Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information free of charge. Contact us

Friday, July 18

• Baltic Dry Index - minus 47 to 9,012. (chart)
• Live dollar trading graph now in lower right corner of this page - (chart of dollar index)
• Dollar was slightly higher today, which put extra pressure on commodities. Metals were all trading in the red at press time, except for gold, which was up just a hair. Nickel had been holding above the $20,501 mark fairly solid the last few days (chart), and we were fairly confident it would hold longer. Did it? Not today. Indicator charts show nickel was lower most of the day, and was starting to climb back by its close. For the day, and week, Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended at $9.23/lb  Market was very interesting this week, and not one a teacher of stock trading would likely pull out as a fitting example of the norm. On Monday and Tuesday of this week, the only thing traders were buying were tickets on a SS Dow-tanic lifeboat, as the markets slumped badly on a near financial sector panic. On Wednesday and Thursday, while it appeared nothing had really changed from an economic standpoint, meaning the ship was still taking on water, traders suddenly started jumping out of the lifeboats and crawling back aboard the ship. Today, everyone appear