Headlines & leaders - (MarketWatch) Japanese output falls at record pace,
worst may be still ahead // GDP contracts 3.8% as inventories limit downturn
- Fourth quarter marks worst performance for U.S. economy in nearly 29 years
// Chicago purchasing managers index lowest since 1982 (Bloomberg) Asian
Stocks Fall on Earnings, Japanese Recession; Nintendo, Toshiba Slide // Japan
Heads for Worst Postwar Recession as Companies Cut Output, Workers // U.S.
Economy Shrinks at 3.8% Pace, Most in 27 Years, as Spending Crumbles // Brazil's
Meirelles Says Global Economic Crisis Won't End Any Time Soon // Stocks
in U.S. Retreat, Extending Losses in S&P 500's Worst-Ever January
US Dollar is trading over 1% higher against the Euro, NYMEX crude is trading
a little of 1/2 of 1% higher, and gold and silver are trading over 2% higher.
A stronger dollar added pressure on base metals trading, and even after getting
a knee jerk reactionary bounce from the US GDP numbers, they all ended weaker.
Nickel fell thru most of the morning, only to recover some of its losses
in afternoon trading. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day,
week, and month at $5.06/lb
. Looking at Sucden's day old chart
(here), today's trading
should see the TL1 line breached, but TL2 holding. Three month nickel started
the month, having ended 2008, at $5.30/lb. LME warehouses held 78,390 tonnes
at the end of Dec 2008. Today, they hold nearly 84,000 tonnes, and this was
during a month "after" most of the nickel mine closures had already taken
place (current list
here).
Ravensthorpe's closure was the big news of the month, but it's immediate
impact will be more devastating to the local community and its workers, than
any potential impact on the nickel market as a whole. Ravensthorpe has been
a dream for many years, and touted as the mega mine that would keep nickel
supply on a even keel with ever increasing world demand. And up until mid
2008, it looked like the multi-billion dollar project could still pay off.
Then nickel slipped under $10/lb, world stock markets began to plummet, stainless
steel production dried up, and the world entered a recession, putting to
sleep the "decoupling" theories. As we have stated before, Ravensthorpe got
a lot of media attention because it was so massive and its closure not only
hurt thousands of workers, but put entire towns in jeopardy. The pain though,
is spread throughout the globe, and no mining country has been immune from
the slowdown. And few are saying ti will get better anytime soon. In fact,
MarketWatch has an interesting observation for those of us with retirement
funds, or money in the market. "According to the Stock Traders Almanac's
January Barometer, the month of January tends to predict the direction of
the market with a 91.4% accuracy ratio, with only five major errors recorded
since 1950.
(more)" Tea leaf speculation? Voodoo forecasting? Probably.
But if the ship is slowly sinking beneath you, you'll grab onto any bit of
information you can. Who knows. Good advice could get you into a life raft
stabile enough to ride out the event. Bad advice will get you very, very
wet - or worse.
Cr, Cu, Mn, Mo, Ni, and steel commodity price drivers (2007
presentation) -
pdf
here
Lower costs give scant relief to metal
producers - Metals producers must take further cost-cutting steps to avoid
closure despite the falling costs of producing industrial metals, helped
by sharp declines in prices for energy, raw materials and labour. -
more
Metals:''It ain't good out there'' - As we and others have reported, global
steel production hit 1,329.7 million metric tons last year, a decrease of
1.2% compared with 2007 and the first decline we’ve seen in a decade.
-
more
Fortescue earns $610m with iron ore
sold at discount - Fortescue Metals has admitted selling some of its iron
ore shipments at a discount to the benchmark price before the conclusion
of this year's pricing talks. -
more
Job cuts to be made in European and
North American operations - Explosives and chemicals giant Orica is shedding
jobs, with plans to put off "hundreds" of workers from its overseas operations.
-
more
Shuvalov: Tycoons Won't All Get Help -
Russia will not write a blank check to save top businessmen hit by the global
economic crisis, and the state expects something in return for helping bail
them out, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said Thursday. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.09/lb
lower and rebounding on a better than
expected GDP reading. Base metals are all trading lower this morning as the
Euro trades nearly a full 1% lower against the US Dollar. NYMEX crude is
trading 1/10th of 1% lower and quiet, while gold and silver are trading higher.
In overnight trading, Asian markets managed to squeeze out a slight gain,
thanks mostly to India and Pakistan. European markets are trading nearly
dead even so far this morning, and US futures show Wall Street will open
lower on news the GDP for the 4th quarter fell hard, but less than
economists had forecast, but still its weakest in 28 years. Look for commodities
markets to most likely be subdued today, with much of China returning to
work Monday.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals ended mixed yesterday,
but the day ended better than it where began for most in the group. ... As
of this writing, metals are slightly lower again today, as a stronger dollar
(now at 1.2880 against the Euro) weighs on the complex. In addition, stocks
continue to rise, ... We are currently at $10,875, down $525. We seem
to be on track to test modest support evident at $10,300, which marks the
bottom end of our up channel (marked in red in our chart below). Should we
break below the line, we could set up a test of major support at
$9300." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Australia - Nickel sector climbs 144.5 points (2.5%), rising for a second
day, a 2-day rise of 3.3%
Barrick's Munk Says Gold Will Top $1,000 on Turmoil -
video here
2009 Country Stock Market Performance -- Things Already Aren't Pretty -
more
Australia: Not Good News From Commodity Forecast -
more
No bottom yet for falling commodities, Scotiabank finds -
more
Vale Reaches Agreement in Canada to Unblock
Nickel Shipments - Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s second-largest
nickel refiner, reached an agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador to build
a nickel-processing plant in the Canadian province, clearing an impasse that
halted shipments. -
more (government's official statement
here)
Vale agrees paid leave deal with Brazil
unions - Seven labour unions have given their consent to Brazilian miner
Vale to put their members on leave with half-pay at any time between now
and May 31 as a way to avoid layoffs, Vale said on Thursday. -
more
DJ Brazil's Rio State Vetos Three Iron-Ore Terminal Projects - The Rio de
Janeiro State government has vetoed the installation of three iron ore export
terminals worth BRL5 billion (US$2.19 billion) on the state's southern coast,
State Secretary for Development Julio Bueno told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday.
-
more
Rio Tinto to sell assets to Vale for $1.6bn - Rio Tinto on Friday struck
a surprise deal to sell assets in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay for US$1.6bn
in a move that will help the indebted Anglo-Australian mining group achieve
its target of reducing borrowings by US$10bn in 2009. -
more
Russia's Norilsk raises '08 nickel, copper
output - Norilsk Nickel, the world's No. 1 nickel and palladium producer,
said on Friday its saleable nickel output rose to 299,721 tonnes last year
from 276,000 tonnes in 2007. -
more
Norilsk 08 Nickel Output Up 1.5% On Yr To 299,721 Tons - Russia's OAO Norilsk
Nickel, the world's largest nickel producer by production volumes, Friday
said its 2008 nickel output was 299,721 metric tons, 1.5% up from 295,209
tons a year earlier and above the company's forecast of 298,000 tons. -
more
Mine jobs lost worldwide as recession
hits metals - All over North and South America, miners are losing their jobs
as the recession hits demand for metals that enjoyed a boom in recent years.
-
more
Zimbabwe: Mining Industry Anticipates
Boom - The mining industry is poised to benefit from the projected rise in
the global metal prices this year, analysts have said. -
more
Iron Ore Market May Have Bottomed, Fortescue
Predicts - The iron ore market may have bottomed as demand from Chinese
steelmakers recovers, driving prices for the raw material higher, according
to Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest producer.
-
more
OneSteel cuts steel production - OneSteel
has cut steel production in response to lower than expected sales levels
caused by a global economic slowdown. -
more
(JMB) Nippon Steel to Idle A Blast Furnace
for Additional Production Cut - Nippon Steel announced on Thursday the firm
expands the raw steel production cut to historical 4.2 million tonnes in
second half of fiscal 2008 ending March 2009 compared with the first half
year.
Big-debt miners turn to markets - Two
of the world's biggest miners employing thousands of Australians are tapping
financial markets to raise a massive $US12 billion ($A18 billion) to pay
back debt. -
more
Billionaire Vekselberg Says No
‘Rush’ With TNK-BP CEO - Viktor Vekselberg, a billionaire investor
in Russian oil company TNK-BP, said shareholders are in “no rush”
to appoint a new chief executive officer after talks with a former head of
Russia’s biggest mining company stalled. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asia Stocks Rise, Led by Banks, on
Rate Cuts, Stimulus; BHP Billiton Gains // Nintendo Slashes Earnings Forecasts,
Showing Wii Isn't `Recession-Proof' // European Stocks Fall for First Time
in Four Days; BHP, AstraZeneca Decline // Ruble Drops Most in a Decade as
Speculators Test Putin's `Gradual' Pledge // Prospects for U.S. Recovery
Dim as Home Sales, Durable-Goods Orders Slump // Ford Burns $5.5 Billion
in Cash, Taps Revolving Loan After Worst Loss Ever // Bovespa Falls on Earnings
Concern, Global Slowdown; Bolsa, Ipsa Decline // Stocks in U.S. Retreat on
Earnings, Durables, Jobs Data; Allstate Slides
The Euro continues to slump against the US Dollar, after billionaire George
Soros commented the Euro may not survive 'without a European Union global
plan to deal with toxic debt.' At update time it was down nearly 1-1/2%,
but off daily lows. NYMEX oil lost its early morning gains, and is now trading
lower by 1/4 of 1%. Gold is trading higher by nearly 2% and has crawled back
over $900. Base metals ended mixed, with nickel ending lower. Indicator charts
show nickel was much lower by mid day, but continued the recovery we mentioned
in the morning update, and ended well off daily low's. Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at $5.17/lb
. Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate
wrote today ""At the moment it's hard to justify prices being higher. It's
also difficult to justify them being much lower." The Baltic Dry Index remains
to be one of the few bright spots out there, gaining again overnight. Since
this is used to track raw material shipments around the world, it could mean
such shipments are picking up. However, it also could mean these shipments
are doing no more than heading for warehouses. Nickel inventories into LME
warehouses continue to swell, with nearly a 1000 tonne gain reported overnight.
And nickel is not alone here. Unemployment rose nearly twice as high as expected
in a German report this morning. Here in the States, continuing jobless claims
reached their highest level since the government started tracking them in
1967. Sales of new homes reached their lowest level since the government
stated tracking them in 1963. Orders for US made durable goods fell 2.6%
in December, but that doesn't tell the whole story. If we weren't spending
billions in defense order for the wars Iraq and Afghanistan, the figure would
have fell a much lower 4.9%. Either way, all of the reports above came in
worse than analysts had expected, and Wall Street has soured on the news.
One of the reasons analysts had forecast durable goods to only fall 2% in
December, might have had something to do with the government reporting they
fell 1.5% in November. Today, the government admitted a mistake, and revised
November losses to 3.7%. Tomorrow we get the all important GDP numbers, with
analysts forecasting a drop of 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008. Ian
Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote to clients
today, "The industrial recession is deep and broad and there's no prospect
of any easing of the downward pressure anytime soon."
Commodity/Economic Comments
(Xstrata financial report) "In response to weaker demand for ferrochrome,
the Xstrata-Merafe Chrome Venture progressively suspended 17 ferrochrome
furnaces in South Africa, representing approximately 80% of annual production
capacity, prioritising lower cost, energy efficient production from the Lion
and Lydenburg Premus smelters"..... “The full impact of nickel production
cuts is expected to stabilise the market in 2009. Supply from Chinese nickel
pig iron and other high-cost facilities is unlikely to resume given the
prevailing economic climate and lack of visibility into near-term market
conditions" ..... "The closure of additional production facilities will tighten
physical markets and prices were expected to be supported by the economic
cash breakeven costs of nickel producers. In the medium-to-longer term, the
outlook is expected to improve as global demand recovers and the physical
availability of nickel tightens.”
(Highlands Pacific Limited quarterly report) MCC Ramu NiCo Limited (owner
of 85% of the Ramu nickel cobalt project) and 100% owned subsidiary of China
Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC) is the project manager for the
project. The project remains on track for the targeted completion of construction
by the end of 2009 and on budget with a total cost of US$1.4 billion ...
Other Chinese parties involved with MCC are Jinchuan Group Limited; Jilin
Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd.; and Jiuquan Iron and Steel (Group) Co., Ltd.
These are all major players in the steel and nickel industry in
China.(estimated production of 31,150 tonnes of nickel per year)
Graph - Durable Goods - New Orders for 2008 -
here
Brookings Institution study - The Origins of the Financial Crisis -
pdf here
Might want to hold off buying a new car because "Uncle Sam wants you to buy
a car" -
more
World Growth Grinds to Virtual Halt, IMF
Urges Decisive Global Policy Response - World growth is forecast to fall
to its lowest level since World War II, with financial markets remaining
under stress and the global economy taking a sharp turn for the worse, sending
both global output and trade plummeting, the IMF said in its latest assessment
of the world economy. -
more
House approves "Buy America" steel measure
- The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a controversial
"Buy America" steel provision as part of an $825 billion package to help
pull the U.S. economy out of recession. -
more
EU exec, steelmakers warn U.S. over "Buy America" - The European Commission
signaled on Thursday it may contest a "Buy America" provision if it is included
in the final version of an $825 billion package to kickstart the U.S. economy.
-
more
Nippon Steel is latest metal maker to cut
outlook - Nippon Steel cut the profit outlook Thursday for its fiscal year
by a bigger-than-expected 36 percent as a slump in car sales hit its mainstay
business of sheet steel for automobiles. -
more
Big metal cuts herald faster recovery
for some - Parts of the mining and metals industry such as ferro-chrome,
iron ore and steel have slashed output on tumbling demand and prices which
should stand them in good stead for an eventual upturn. -
more
China slams EU anti-dumping move,
threatens WTO action - China Wednesday blasted an EU decision to slap
hefty anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made screws and bolts and said it may
take the issue to the World Trade Organisation. -
more
Russia’s oligarchs lose more than
£180bn in eight months - More than $260 billion (£182 billion)
has been wiped from the wealth of Russia’s billionaires over the past
eight months as the credit crunch has sent the value of its currency and
largest industrial groups plummeting, according to one of Russia’s largest
private banks. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.29/lb
lower but showing signs of possible
recovery. Euro is losing some of yesterday's gains, and is trading over 2/10th's
of 1% lower against the U.S. Dollar. NYMEX crude is nearly 3% higher this
morning. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended solidly higher, and so
far today, European markets are having a good day. Futures have Wall Street
showing a lower opening after U.S. December durable goods orders fell 2.6%,
much lower than expected, and the Labor Dept reported continuing unemployment
claims hit an all time record high last
week(more). Starbucks announced last evening it was closing
300 stores and firing 7,000 workers.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices ended up with modest
gains yesterday, as a firmer tone in the US stock market brought on by market
talk that some sort of government-sponsored bank rescue fund was possibly
in the works, helped stabilize the various markets. ... It is a completely
different story this morning, where metals are getting pounded across the
board. Once again, the main culprit is the rising level of LME stocks, with
the increases today being particularly noteworthy. ... Despite the selloff
that we are seeing, we do not see an imminent retest of the trading range
lows, as we suspect markets should remain fairly stable in light of the ongoing
deliberations that are being pursued with respect to the banks. In fact,
the Wall Street Journal reports today that the government is talking about
spending another $1 trillion to $2 trillion to help restore the banks to
health, and that the Administration could announce its plans within days.
Apparently, the details of the proposal have yet to be worked out, but we
would view such an announcement as being quite significant for the markets.
In another major development, an $820 billion stimulus package was approved
by the House yesterday, but pointedly, no Republican votes for the bill.
The measure now goes to the Senate, which has its own version, and then will
have to go to committee to be reconciled. ... We are currently at $11,100,
down $650 and quiet. Charts remain inconclusive, with trading ranges remaining
tight." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Dow Jones) The nickel industry has made "particularly rapid and significant"
efforts to cut production in response to deteriorating demand with around
350,000 metric tons of refined output being taken out of the market in 2009,
Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata PLC said Thursday. This represents approximately
21% of the previously expected level of global supply in 2009, and is expected
to stabilize the market this year, Xstrata noted.
Davies tells Anglo-Saxon economies correction must be long and painful -
more
International Royalty comments on Voisey's
Bay concentrate shipments - International Royalty Corporation has recently
learned of an article reporting that the Voisey's Bay mine had halted concentrate
shipments -
more(contains additional facts)
Sherritt says Madagascar project needs
review - Sherritt International said on Wednesday its Ambatovy joint-venture
nickel project in Madagascar needs to be restructured as it copes with falling
nickel prices and -
more
The MEPS GLobal Composite Steel Price Bottoms
Out in January - US transaction values continue to fall, although the descent
is less startling than of late. -
more
Russia And China Implement Countermeasures
For Depressed Nickel Market = Russia Revokes Export Duty On Nickel, China
Revises Regulations For Conversion Trade On Consignment -
more
Chinese steel mills forecast price rise - Most Chinese steel mills expect
steel prices to rise this year in spite of gloomy prospects for domestic
demand and exports, according to a new survey from Steel Business Briefing,
the consultancy. -
more
Hyundai Steel Warns Sales, Output to Decline
on Global Slump - Hyundai Steel Co. warned that sales and production will
decline this year as South Korea’s second- largest steelmaker battles
shrinking demand for construction steel triggered by the global recession.
-
more
Rio Tinto and Xstrata move to raise
cash - Rio Tinto is in talks with Chinalco, the Chinese state-owned metals
group, about a possible capital injection and a sale of assets.-
more
Usmanov says Russia mining merger
doubtful-papers - A six-company Russian mining merger proposed by Norilsk
Nickel's top shareholders is unlikely to succeed due to the huge debts involved,
metals tycoon Alisher Usmanov said in interviews published on Thursday. -
more
Deripaska Says Putin Right to Limit Russian Government Bailout - Billionaire
Oleg Deripaska, who received $4.5 billion of emergency funding from the Russian
government, said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is right to limit the amount
of bailout money available to companies. -
more
BHP to buy Ravensthorpe houses - BHP
Billiton has confirmed it will buy back houses from some of the workers
retrenched from the Ravensthorpe Nickel Mine.-
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Reuters) U.S. mortgage applications plunged last
week -MBA (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks Rise For Second Day on Government
Policy Optimism; Banks Gain // Tata Steel Third-Quarter Net Drops on Waning
Demand for Cars, Appliances // European Stocks Climb for Third Day; Deutsche
Bank, Barclays, SAP Advance // Obama Seen Naming FDIC to Run `Bad Bank,'
Sending Financial Shares Higher // U.S. Stocks Surge, Extend Global Rally
on Bank-Bailout Plan; Yahoo Climbs //
The Euro continues to trade higher against the US Dollar, up by 8/10th's
of 1%, while crude oil has changed directions in the last hour and is now
trading higher by 1%. Gold and silver are trading lower, and while most of
the base metals squeezed out a gain for the day, the enthusiasm of early
morning trading had waned by late afternoon. Nickel was the LME winner of
the day, but indicator charts show it ended well off its daily high.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$5.31/lb . Just
so you now, we aren't the only ones puzzled by the markets activity recently.
Robin Bahr, an analyst at Calyon wrote today "Price rises cannot be sustained.
There is no real fundamental reason why metals prices should rise, unless
you are taking a long term -- 3, 5, 10 year -- view." And while some traders
said today's rise was due to speculative and fund buying, David Thurtell
from Citigroup noted "Base metals are tracking equities." Whoever is right,
the old saying "don't fight the trend" appears to be holding true. Looking
at Sucden's day old nickel chart
(here), you can see
the market is holding within the trendline's. Speaking of fundamentals, whether
they matter or not, LME authorized warehouses have seen an average gain of
230 tonnes each business day this month, and 802 tonnes per day over the last 3 business
days alone. The Baltic Dry Index continues to grow, and is followed by some
traders as a barometer of raw material shipments around the world. Reuters
finally posted their poll of metals analysts today and we have posted the
nickel forecasts for each below. They appear to match the opinions of our
readers that participated in our poll last week.
Reuters Survey
Analyst Poll - Nickel to average in 2009
Deutsche Bank - $3.663/lb // UBS - $4.00/lb // Goldman Sachs - $4.0733/lb
// Scotiabank Group - $4.20/lb // GFMS Consulting - $4.4793/lb // Citigroup
- $4.50/lb // Evolution Securities - $4.50/lb // Haywood Securities - $4.50/lb
// Investec - $4.50/lb // Base metals - $4.53/lb // China Int Futures - $4.536/lb
// Calyon - $4.54/lb // Fairfax IS - $4.54/lb // Standard Chartered - $4.57/lb
- MAPE - $4.5927/lb // Virtual Metals - $4.672/lb // ASTMAX - $4.7628/lb
// Karvy Comtrade - $4.7628/lb // MF Global - $4.7628/lb // Fox-Davies Capital
- $4.80/lb // ANZ - $4.875/lb // Barclays Capital - $4.9215/lb // Bernstein
- $4.9261/lb // JP Morgan - $4.932/lb // Mitsui Bussan Commodities - $4.99/lb
// Canaccord Adams - $5.00/lb // Macquarie Bank - $5.00/lb // Midas Funds
- $5.00/lb // National Bank Financial - $5.00/lb // RBC Capital Markets -
$5.00/lb // Societe Generale - $5.1256/lb // BNP Paribas - $5.1259/lb
// EIU - $5.20/lb // HSBC - $5.22/lb // Morgan Stanley - $5.25/lb // CPM
Group - $5.37/lb // CIBC World Markets - $5.38/lb // Desjardins Securities
- $5.50/lb // Royal Bank of Scotland - $5.50/lb // CLSA - $5.60/lb // Metals
Bulletin - $5.6133/lb // Credit Suisse - $5.70/lb // BMO Capital Markets
- $5.75/lb // ING - $5.75/lb // Way2Wealth - $5.806/lb // CBA - $5.83/lb
// Commerzbank - $5.9421/lb // Danske - $6.0102/lb // Natixis - $6.1585/lb
// RFS International - $6.3504/lb // Standard Bank - $6.6665/lb // and Merrill
Lynch - $6.86/lb
Mean Forecast for 2009 - $5.093/lb / Median Forecast - $5.00/lb
Mean Forecast for 2010 - $6.1453/lb / MEdian Forecast $6.00/lb
U.S. Imports for Consumption of Steel Products December 2008 -
here
Commodity/Economic Comments
(Dow Jones) Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde SAA, said late Tuesday that it will
temporarily suspend its molybdenum circuit, which produced three million
pounds of molybdenum in 2008.
(Dow Jones) U.S. preliminary December steel imports were down 11.4% from
the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted level of 1,802.2 thousand metric
tons, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced Wednesday. (report above)
Vale Halts Nickel Shipments Amid Labrador
Talks - Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s second-largest nickel
refiner, has halted concentrate shipments from Newfoundland and Labrador
until an agreement can be reached with the Canadian province on a proposed
processing plant. -
more
AK Steel CEO sees 50 pct iron ore price
drop - The price of iron ore, a key ingredient in steel-making, is expected
to decline as much as 50 percent this year, the head of AK Steel said Tuesday.
-
more
Kazakhstan miner ENRC asks govt to
cut key tax - London-listed Kazakh mining and metals group ENRC asked the
government on Wednesday to temporarily reduce a key minerals extraction tax
rate to help the sector deal with falling global metals prices. -
more
Russia VTB will seek Norilsk board seat-CEO
- VTB, Russia's second-largest bank, will seek a seat on the board of Norilsk
Nickel to back its large exposure to the world's top nickel miner, the bank's
head said on Wednesday. -
more
BHP lied to us: Ravensthorpe president
- The crash in nickel value was only half the story behind last week's sudden
closure of the WA's BHP Billiton nickel mine in Ravensthorpe, according to
Shire of Ravensthorpe president Brenda Tilbrook. -
more
Sherritt CEO says Cuban nickel business
will help offset loss of oil contract - Sherritt International was caught
by surprise by Cuba's decision to scrap a production-sharing oil contract
with its partner Pebercan Inc., but chief executive Ian Delaney says his
company's low-cost Cuban nickel business will help to offset any losses.
-
more
China marches on in Africa despite downturn
- Chinese businessmen are taking a long-term view and pursuing strategic
expansion in Africa even though China's multiplying investments on the continent
have lost some luster in the global downturn. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.24/lb
higher, with all LME base metals trading
in the green. More than likely this is due to the Euro, which is trading
up against the US Dollar this morning, by nearly a full 1% at update time.
NYMEX crude is trading lower, by 4/10th's of 1%, and in the mid $41/bbl range.
Gold is also down, as monetary traders anxiously await news on what the Federal
Reserve might do today. Asian markets traded higher overnight, with strong
performances in South Korea, Singapore, Pakistan and Australia helping boost
the overall index. European markets are al;so trading higher this morning,
with Wall Street futures showing a very strong opening, after reports surfaced
that the Obama administration is close to finalizing a plan that will have
the U.S. taxpayer buying all the bad assets from U.S. banks. A poll by analysts
surveyed by Reuters and released this morning, shows the analysts forecast
nickel will average $5.093/lb in 2009, and $6.153/lb in 2010. More in the
afternoon update.
Nickel Gains in London on Speculation
of More Production Cuts - Nickel advanced in London on speculation more
production cuts will help erode a global surplus of the metal used in stainless
steel. -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals got hammered yesterday,
as the recent buying from earlier this week was not enough to push prices
past key critical resistance points, particularly in copper, which failed
to close above $3400 for two days in a row. As a result, both it, and a number
of other metals, turned sharply lower into their trading ranges yesterday,
and we may see a bit more consolidation before another upside attempt is
made. Having said that, there is little out there to make a case for a sustained
upward move in any of the commodity complexes, and we still maintain that
rallies towards key resistance targets should be sold into. ... We
are currently at $11,700, up $300 and quiet. Charts remain inconclusive."
(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
The average price of nickel over the 14 year period 1990 to 2003 was $3.25/lb.
(JMB) Japanese raw steel production could decrease to less than 20 million
tonnes in January-March when the integrated and electric furnace steel makers
expand the production cut to reduce steel inventory under slow demand caused
by world recession. The production could be 40-year low after 18.28 million
tonnes in January-March 1969.
(ACNB) Nickel sector weakens below Moving Average (MA), with 50-day MA trailing
its 200-day MA, plunges 2.3% January 28, 2009 16:00:00 AEST
FACTBOX-Mines and plants hit by low
prices, high costs - The global financial crisis and sharp falls in metals
prices have forced several companies to abandon or put on hold their plans
to bring new mines onstream. -
more
Xstrata price hit by fears of stake
sale by Glencore - Xstrata led a mining sell-off amid revived worries that
Glencore, its biggest shareholder and marketing partner, was under pressure
to sell down its stake, particularly given Xstrata’s exposure to
ferrochrome, which is used for making stainless steel. -
more
Limited Index Of FeCr Price For Q1 / 09
Comes Up In Europe = Small Quantities Are Supposed To Have Been Contracted
At Nearer Price To Spot One -
more
BHP makes commitments to nickel workers
- BHP Billiton has reportedly made a series of commitments to the unemployed
mine workers from the Ravensthorpe nickel operation, including the redeployment
of up to 200 former employees. -
more
BHP considers 14 weeks redundancy pay - Mining giant BHP Billiton is considering
a housing buyback as part of a package for workers laid off at its Ravensthorpe
nickel mine, the West Australian government said on Wednesday. -
more
Rio Tinto resumes Port Dampier iron ore loading - Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc has restarted
iron ore loading operations in west Australia's Port Dampier following the
passing of a cyclone through Australia's key iron ore mining region, a company
spokesman said on Wednesday. -
more
Iron ore price seen falling 30 pct in 2009
- Iron ore prices are set to fall in 2009 after six years of price hikes
as deteriorating demand triggers severe production cuts in the steel industry,
a Reuters poll shows. -
more
Big Cut Is Sought In Iron Prices - The world's steelmakers want at least
a 10% reduction in iron-ore prices, but miners are determined to keep prices
level as the two sides begin secretive contract negotiations in what looks
to be a bust year for all commodities. -
more
Japan steelmakers seek iron, coal price cuts-Nikkei - Nippon Steel Corp and
other Japanese steelmakers will press for cuts of 40 percent in iron ore
prices and 60-70 percent in coal prices for the next business year due to
falling costs of natural resources and weakening steel demand, a newspaper
reported.
-
more
Madagascar opposition rallies, deaths
mount - Tens of thousands of opposition supporters protested against the
president in Madagascar's capital on Wednesday, two days after an earlier
rally descended into violence that killed nearly 40 people. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks Climb on Lower Borrowing
Costs, Economic Reports; Banks Rise // Dollar, Yen Advance as Record Low
U.S. Confidence Boosts Demand for Haven // UK Stocks Fall for First Time
in Three Days; Utilities Drop on Sales Concern // U.S. January Consumer
Confidence Declines to Record Low; Home Prices Sink // Roubini Says There's
`Nowhere to Hide' From Pain of Global Economic Slump // Stocks in U.S. Rise
on Earnings; Texas Instruments, Travelers Shares Gain (MarketWatch) German
business climate edges higher in January
The Euro was stronger against the US Dollar early after a German business
report came in better than expected. But it began to lose ground after and
ECB member was quoted as saying the European Central Bank may drop interest
rates again. The Dollar is currently trading about 2/10 of 1% higher. Commodities
are mostly trading lower, with NYMEX crude down nearly 5%, and gold down
1/2% and falling below the $900 an ounce. Base metals all ended lower, and
indicator charts show nickel opened slightly higher, but started a tumble
almost immediately that lasted until late afternoon, before the market closed
with nickel in an apparent recovery mode. For the day, three month nickel
ended the day at $5.17/lb
. Looking at Sucden's day old nickel trading
chart (here), we
will see that today's trading kept the price of nickel trading above the
TL1 line. Overall momentum on the market appears to be technically heading
higher, but fundamentals, in our opinion, should eventually pull the market
back into its apparent "comfort" zone , trading somewhere between $10,190/tonne
($4.62/lb) and $11,401 ($5.17/lb). Our track record has been so dismal lately,
we thought about buying a monkey and basing our future forecasts on which
part of the cage they did their business in. But after visiting a local zoo
and discovering some monkeys have a nasty little habit of throwing their
poop at unsuspecting human visitors, we decided to stick with the more hygienic,
albeit less reliable, coin toss. The American Iron and Steel
Institute reported production of steel for last week, was less than
1/2 what it was during the same week in 2008.
Commodity/Economic Comments
(Dow Jones) Canada-listed molybdenum producer Thompson Creek Metals Co. Inc.
is to cut its 2009 production by about a third due to unfavorable market
conditions and reduced demand for the metal, the company said Tuesday.
(Reuters) Russian metals billionaire Alisher Usmanov and his partners in
steelmaker Metalloinvest want to swap their debt of around $10 billion to
the state for a stake in a mining giant which was proposed to be created
by merging Metalloinvest and metals giant Norilsk Nickel, Vedomosti business
daily reports.
Takara Resources Inc. has been granted five mineral exploration licences
prospective for nickel (Ni) sulphides, covering an area of approximately
110,000 hectares located west of Thompson, Manitoba.
Peak oil? Global warming? No, it's 'Boomsday!' -
more
Everything You Wanted to Know about Credit Default Swaps--but Were Never
Told -
more
Why do the majority of people never get cancer? -
more
China Commodities Weekly for the Week of
January 19-23, 2009 - Last week, ahead of the Chinese New Year, the Chinese
domestic markets were very quiet. -
more
Final Vale Inco plan for hydromet plant
still not tendered - Mining giant Vale Inco has not yet submitted a final
plan for developing a nickel processing plant for southern Newfoundland,
with neither the company nor government officials commenting on the delay.
-
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.28/lb
lower, with all LME traded base
metals in a similar state of sell-off. Dollar is ever so slightly higher
against the Euro, buy nearly .03%, while NYMEX oil trading 1.36% lower. Asian
markets ended slightly higher overnight, minus the vacationing China, while
European markets are trading slightly lower so far. US futures imply an opening
in the green. Gold is lower this morning, after hitting a 3½-month high
in dollar terms and posting all-time highs in euro and sterling yesterday
as investors sought a safe haven, especially in Europe. Nickel inventories
grew overnight, and are now just a few tonnes shy of 82,000 tonnes. BDI finally
broke thru the 1000 level. Dominic is now a Tropical Depression and
has moved inland in NW Australia
(here). And off topic, but a fascinating picture has been
posted online of the Obama inauguration. Here is the link, and zoom in on
any area for incredible detail.
(here)
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments -"Copper rallied to its highest
levels in nearly two months on Monday, buoyed by surprisingly strong macro
readings out of the US. The complex finished well ahead of our resistance
target of $3400, although prices did come off an intraday high of $3600 by
the close. Nevertheless, the move was sufficient enough to pull the rest
of the group higher, with good gains noted in lead, zinc, and ali, although
nickel and tin turned in less than impressive performances. ... We
are currently at $11,460, down $440 and quiet. Charts remain inconclusive,
as prices are basically in the middle of a three-month trading range." (read
Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
Ufaleynikel has announced it has begun preparatory work in anticipation of
resuming production of nickel by early February.
(ACNB) Nickel sector jumps 187.7 points (3.2%), rising for a fourth consecutive
day, a 4-day rise of 8.8%
How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions -
more
Spain's Acerinox threatens job cuts on
weak demand - Spain's Acerinox said on Monday it might temporarily lay off
workers at its Spanish factory if demand for its stainless steel did not
pick up in the next two weeks. -
more
Vale Inco bullish - Early last week, analysts
were speculating about the possibility of a lengthy shutdown at Vale Inco
due to low nickel prices, but on Friday, there was Roger Agnelli, Vale's
CEO in Brazil, announcing the company will invest $14 billion in its operations
this year, up from the record $10 billion the company spent on its operations
last year. -
more
Mining industry doubts negligence suit
against BHP would succeed - The citizens of Ravensthorpe in WA are considering
suing BHP Billiton for not telling them early enough about the closure of
its nickel mine. -
more
Australian oil, iron-ore output hit by Cyclone Dominic - Oil fields off the
north west coast of Western Australia state remain shut in Tuesday due to
tropical cyclone Dominic, which has also halted the iron ore exports of miner
Rio Tinto Ltd. -
more
WA Government agrees to help devastated mining towns - The Western Australian
Government has agreed to spend up to $5 million to help the south coast towns
of Ravensthorpe and Hopetoun deal with an exodus of workers following the
closure of the BHP Billiton nickel mine. -
more
African Eagle Aims to Start Tanzanian
Nickel Production by 2011 - African Eagle Resources Plc, a British metals
explorer, may start producing nickel from the Dutwa deposit in Tanzania as
soon as late 2011 if it can raise the necessary funds, said Managing Director
Mark Parker. -
more
Putin Says Russian Metals Merger Should
Be About More Than Debt - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russian
metals companies should only merge with rivals to enhance competitiveness
and not simply to consolidate debt. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending January
24, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,025,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 43.1 percent. Production was 2,154,000 tons
in the week ending January 24, 2008, while the capability utilization then
was 90.3 percent. The current week production represents a 52.5 percent decrease
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
January 24, 2009 is down 2.0 percent from the previous week ending January
17, 2009 when production was 1,045,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 43.8 percent.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Japan Stocks Fall to 3-Month Low on
Earnings; Thai, Philippine Shares Gain / European Stocks Rise From Lowest
Level in Two Months as Barclays, ING Gain / Corus May Cut 3,500 Jobs as Slump
in Demand Prompts Lower Metal Production / Barclays Says It Won't Need More
Capital as ING Replaces Chief, Cuts Jobs / US Existing Home Sales Rise on
Record Price Slump / Stocks in U.S. Gain on Pfizer's Deal to Acquire Wyeth;
Bank Shares Advance
The Euro rebounded against the US Dollar today, after British bank Barclay's
issued an upbeat forecast. Euro was trading 1.6% higher at update time. Weaker
dollar usually helps boost commodity prices, and NYMEX crude was trading
nearly 2.6% higher. Gold and silver also traded higher, as did all of the
base metals ... except for nickel. Nickel had its day in the sun on Friday,
and today was apparently time to pay the piper. Indicator charts show nickel
started out negative in pre trading, got a boost at the bell, before slumping,
bouncing again in mid afternoon trading, before sliding once more. Dow
Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$5.40/lb , and
considering the fundamentals are horrible and technicals show it was seriously
overbought on Friday
(here), nickel held
up fairly well, with the dollar giving it a hand. Last week we reported
inventories of nickel stored in LME warehouses passed the 80,000 tonne mark.
Today that total passed 81,000 tonnes, with some huge shipments received
in Europe and Singapore. Baltic Dry Index continues to grow, now only 5 points
shy of 1000. The Chinese New Year/Spring Festival is taking place this week,
and for all practical purposes, that country is shut down. India celebrated
their Republic Day today, Australia celebrated Australia Day, Icelander's
awoke to news their entire government had resigned, and Tropical Storm Dominic
is menacing miners in NW Australia
(here). Wall Street is up today, but we should see a volatile
week ahead as numerous economic reports are scheduled to be released. The
rhetoric over President Obama's stimulus package kicked up a notch over the
weekend, and the honeymoon between Republican's and Democrat's unofficially
ended.
DJ Freeport: Sees 2009 Molybdenum Sales -25%
At 60 Mln Lbs - U.S. producer Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc. (FCX)
has revised its forecast for molybdenum sales in 2009 and 2010 to 60 million
pounds for each year, some 25% and 40% down respectively from previous estimates.
-
more
Cyclone threatens Australia's oil,iron
ore output - Miners and oil and gas operators operating around Australia's
northwest coast are taking precautionary measures as a cyclone forms in the
region. -
more
Vale Inco employees donate $1.2 million
to United Way - Vale Inco and United Steelworkers Locals 6500 and 2020 today
announced a $1.2 million boost to the 2008 United Way Centraide campaign
raised through a joint employee/company fundraising effort. -
more
No end in sight to slide in base metals
mining profits - Earnings forecasts for major diversified mining firms have
tumbled but calling a bottom may be premature due to risks from further falls
in metals prices, output cuts and asset writedowns. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.18/lb
lower. China is closed for business this
week for the week long Spring Festival and India markets were closed
today because of the Republic Day holiday. NYMEX crude is trading 8/10 of
1% lower, while Brent Spot is trading 9/10 of 1% higher. The Euro is trading
nearly 1/5 of 1% higher against the US Dollar at the moment. In overnight
trading, the Asian markets that were open traded lower, while European markets
are higher this morning. Wall Street futures are showing nothing at this
point, a plus 1 as we write this. Corus confirming another 3500 lay-off's
is the news this morning that is getting the most attention, and sadly, news
we are growing increasingly accustomed
to.(more).
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals enjoyed a broad-based
bounce on Friday, with copper and nickel doing particularly well. Some short
covering, along with an impressive reversal in the US stock market also helped
the better tone. In the stock market's case, although the Dow finished Friday's
session with a 45-point loss, it did manage to recover from a 200-point loss
at one stage in the day. Most of Friday's gains are spilling over into
today's session, although some of the metals, like nickel and tin, are already
starting to fade. ... The macro data out of the US this week will be quite
heavy, unlike last week, where the calendar was rather sparse. ...
We are currently at $11,750, down $350 and quiet. We saw a nice move higher
on Friday, but the complex has been unable to add to these gains today. Charts
remain inconclusive, with resistance at slightly higher levels." (read
Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(JMB) Nippon Steel doubles the production cut to more than 4 million tonnes
in October-March period from the original plan, said the president Shoji
Muneoka on Friday.
China situation more "bad news" on jobs and economy -
more
Domestic steel units see revival of demand
- After witnessing a slump in demand in the October-December quarter of the
current financial year that forced output cuts, the domestic steel industry
is on a revival mode. -
more
Tata’s Corus Says Orders Down a Third Amid Reports of Job Cuts - Corus,
Europe’s second largest steelmaker, said its orders are down by a third
due to an “unprecedented” fall in demand, as reports said the company
is preparing to cut as many as 3,500 jobs. -
more
Steelworkers braced for job losses - The recession axe is set to fall on
thousands of steel industry jobs. -
more
Miners hit by chrome warning -
International Ferro Metals, the miner of ferrochrome in South Africa used
for making stainless steel, dropped 19 per cent after it warned that it has
had to agree much lower selling prices for ferrochrome it thought it had
already sold and is having to write down the value of its ferrochrome inventory
after China slashed the price it will pay for the mineral this quarter by
57 per cent compared with the previous quarter. -
more
Two-year low for chrome prices - January quarter ferrochrome
contract prices negotiated between producers and buyers have more than halved
to 79c a pound from $1,85 a pound in the December quarter, Merafe Resources
said on Friday. -
more
"We are in the midst of crisis?" -
The inauguration of Barack Obama as 44th president of the United States was
full of symbolic hope for the future but it was his warning of "gathering
clouds and raging storms" that chimed best with the gloomy mood on the LME
"street" last week. -
more
Barnett says he’s powerless to
stop Ravensthorpe closure - Premier Colin Barnett says he is powerless to
intervene in BHP Billiton’s closure of the Ravensthorpe nickel mine
in the State’s south. -
more
African Eagle Aims to Start Tanzanian
Nickel Production by 2011 - African Eagle Resources Plc, a British metals
explorer, may start producing nickel from the Dutwa deposit in Tanzania as
soon as late 2011 if it can raise the necessary funds, said Managing Director
Mark Parker. -
more
Scrap Metals Supplement - A Tale of
Two Markets - Newton’s third law of physics, "For every action, there
is an equal and opposite reaction," could be applied to export markets for
secondary commodities these days. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Sunday, January 25
Vale bullish on quick economic recovery
- The fact Vale Inco's parent company is going ahead with plans to spend
$14 billion in 2009 comes as no surprise to a Laurentian University commerce
professor. -
more
Fundamental Views on Metals Markets
- The resource industry and market review I have prepared are the result
of several queries from investors and associates in the past few months about
my feelings and beliefs regarding the current debacle and what the future
holds. Unfortunately, most of us will be affected on one level or another.
-
more
Commodity/Economic Comments
Jeremy Grantham - Obama and the Teflon Men, and Other Short Stories. Part
1 - pdf here
Moran Stanley Investment Perspectives Jan 15 -
pdf here
Roubini, Edwards Predict Slump in S&P 500 on China -
more
Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis -
more
Generation that survived the Great Depression knows this too shall pass -
more
(Reuters) Steelmaker Corus is poised to axe up to 3,500 jobs next week, The
Sunday Times reported. The precise number of lay-offs at the Anglo/Dutch
steelmaker, owned by India's Tata Steel, were being thrashed out over the
weekend, according to the paper.
(JMB) Japan Raw Steel Output Drops by 1.2% in 2008.
China is hot, Britain is finished: Jim Rogers -
more
Cash is king as junior resources casualties
mount - It is not to hard to find people in the sector who share the view
that, before this horror market is done, the casualties among Australia's
810 listed resources companies could get well into the three figures, if
you count both (mainly) failures and mergers. -
more
Boom to bust in mining town - Times are tough throughout the Australian mining
industry. -
more
Chinese slide may undercut mining giants' ore prices - Mining giants BHP
Billiton and Rio Tinto could be pressured into a greater than forecast drop
in iron ore contract prices as China's economic data worsens.
- more
Bailout package for displaced workers
gains support - (excerpt) This developed as 405 workers were laid off by
a nickel mining firm in Dinapigue, Isabela last week. The Platinum Group
Metals Corp. was forced to shut down operations after the decline in the
price of nickel in the world market.
Rusina bullish on Philippine project -Australia-based mining firm Rusina
Mining N.L.’s chief executive is optimistic that low-cost mining operations
remain viable in the Philippines, including its nickel project in Zambales.
-
more
Mining industry may get worse - Withering
cost cuts across the mining industry have left tens of thousands of people
without jobs from the Arizona desert to the Andes - and there is a litany
of evidence that the situation is growing worse. -
more
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks Fall as Sony, Samsung
Losses Deepen Growth, Earnings Concerns // Geithner Warning on Yuan May Trigger
Renewed U.S.-China Economic Tensions // U.K. Economy Shrinks More Than Forecast
in Biggest Contraction Since 1980 // European Stocks Drop for Fifth Day;
Prudential, Infineon, Ubisoft Decline // Brazil's Bovespa Drops, Heads for
Worst Week in Month; Bolsa, Ipsa Decline // Stocks in U.S. Fall on Earnings;
General Electric, Xerox Shares Retreat
The US dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, by 1/10 of 1%. NYMEX
crude is trading by 6/10 of 1% lower. Asian, European, and US markets have
either closed down, or are trading down. We mention this only because these
have been the barometers that analysts have used lately to gauge metal movements.
Precious metals did well today, as investors sought out a safe haven. Base
metals also did well, totally contrary to their usual reaction to the above
listed factors. From a fundamental point of view, a bleak picture didn't
change. A mega nickel mine in Australia closed this week, but nickel inventories
stored in LME warehouses gained nearly 1600 tonnes during the week. There
is no evidence that demand is picking up anywhere in the world, and we have
nothing but anecdotal evidence and hopes that it might anytime in the near
future. England, the home of the London Metal Exchange, woke up to the news
that they were officially in their first recession since 1980. Not exactly
the kind of news that sweetens the morning toast. From a technical point
of view, the market shows nickel neither being in an oversold, or overbought
situation. And yes, while the market has stayed above two slowly ascending
trendline's, many analysts have been speculating the price, based strictly
on fundamentals, could easily collapse below them. You remember fundamentals
don't you? That was all we heard when nickel was selling at $23.50/lb. Too
much demand, not enough supply, its fundamentals that is forcing the price
higher. The fact that every investment fund worth their salt, saw nickel
rising and decided to jump on the gravy train had nothing to do with it.
Hu-uh! So why do indicator charts show nickel taking off at noon, and never
looking back? For what sole reason did nickel dismiss all the typically bad
news, and gain in price by over 10% in one day? Never fear. You come here
for in depth analysis and you'll get exactly what you paid for. There is
always a reason. Or should we say, there is always am excuse. Today, depending
on whom you listen to, the market rose on (1) short covering, (2) optimism
for the US stimulus package or (3) someone slipped drugs into the brownies.
We'll take credit for the last one. Whichever you might believe, Dow Jones
reports three month nickel ended the day and week at
$5.49/lb . We
hope each of you have a restful and safe weekend. Here is a video that is
a few months old, but worth a viewing if you missed it.
Commodity/Economic Comments
Dresdner Kleinwort metals analyst Peter Fertig on today's bounce - "It's
a bit surprising because the developments in markets would point to weakness."
(Dow Jones) -PT Aneka Tambang (ANTM.JK), Indonesia's second-largest producer
of ferronickel, will cut its output of the metal this year by 30% to 12,000
metric tons, as it doesn't expect flagging demand and lower prices of the
commodity to improve, said a senior company official Friday.
Moly prices to remain low in 2009, surplus
to shrink: Morgan - Molybdenum prices are set to remain low this year, but
the market's supply surplus should shrink from 2008 levels, Morgan Stanley
said this week in its Global Metals Playbook for the first quarter. -
more
ThyssenKrupp CEO: Start-up Of Alabama Stainless
Operations Delayed - Steelmaker and engineering company ThyssenKrupp AG will
postpone the start-up of stainless steel production at a new plant in Alabama
due to the "massive drop in demand" in North America for the product, said
Chief Executive Ekkehard Schulz at the company's annual general meeting Friday.
-
more
Stainless steel giant set to axe jobs
- Fifty jobs are being axed at Outokumpu's Sheffield melting shop, four months
after the stainless steel giant announced it was closing its thin strip business
at Meadowhall with the loss of 230 jobs. -
more
Brazil Miner Vale CEO: Demand To Improve
2nd Half 09 Estado - Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO)
Chief Executive Roger Agnelli said iron ore demand should show signs of improving
in the second half of this year, local news agency Estado said Thursday.
- more
Analysis - - Earnings forecasts for major
diversified mining firms have tumbled but calling a bottom may be premature
due to risks from further falls in metals prices, output cuts and asset
writedowns. -
more
Australia’s richest woman shrugs
off slowdown with new mine plans - The richest woman in Australia, mining
magnate Gina Rinehart, is shrugging off talk of a global slowdown in the
resources sector and will push ahead with plans for a new iron-ore project
and a coalmine. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.11/lb
higher. Why? Appears to be more technical
than anything else. If you look at Sucden's day old chart, you can see that
nickel is trying to maintain a slight uptrend as seen in the TL1 and
TL2 trend lines.
(here) The Euro is
getting beat up this morning, trading over 1-1/2% lower against the US Dollar,
while NYMEX crude is trading almost 1% lower. Other base metals show little
activity or movement, while gold and silver trade higher. In overnight trading,
Asian markets ended lower, European markets are trading lower, and US futures
forecast Wall Street will open much lower. It appears the bulls are in the
barn, and the bears are on the prowl today. Ferrochrome contracts between
South African producers and European steelmakers saw the negotiated price
fall by 57%. This will help stainless steel producers whenever they start
producing again, but hurts those who are holding higher priced ferrochrome
inventory, especially those who have secured collateralized loans against
their stock. Now that those stocks have lost over 50% of their value, the
banks will be requesting more collateral.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "We are lower in metals once
again as of this writing, although the losses are not as steep as what we
saw at this same time yesterday. Energy prices are off slightly this morning
after an unusual bounce yesterday, this despite bearish weekly inventory
data. The dollar is much stronger today, trading at 1.28 against the Euro
and at 1.355 against sterling. However, its traditional downward impact on
metal prices, at least thus far, seems to be limited. ... Finally, the Chinese
markets will be closed next week on account of the Lunar New Year holidays.
Come to think of it, given nothing but the grim news that seems to be on
the menu practically every day, shutting all the markets down for a week
may not be such a bad idea. ... We are currently at $11,100, up $100, and
quiet. We are watching to see whether prices pull away and close below $11,000,
which could result in an another leg lower. (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
Michael Broeker, analyst at Frankfurt brokerage Steubing - "The international
steel industry is suffering the biggest crisis in 80 years ... "We predict
another drop of 20 percent y-o-y will emerge in world crude steel production
in January 2009. We assume a gradual recovery of the international steel
industry only from the second quarter of 2009."
Macquarie Bank analysts - forecasting a 8.1% YOY drop in 2009 worldwide steel
production.
(Credit Suisse) Despite overall losses in December (the Dow Jones AIG Commodity
Index finished down 4.48%), several commodities posted healthy returns for
the month. Nickel was the month’s strongest performer, gaining 14.20%,
as improvements within the equity markets began generating optimism for
industrial consumption in 2009.
(JMB) Japanese steel export increased by 4.6% to record 38.169 million tonnes
in 2008 from 2007, announced by Ministry of Finance on Thursday.
China’s Slowdown Is Set to Worsen as Recession Pummels Exports -
more
Tribune - The AK Steel plant in Zanesville (Ohio) will be idle the last week
of March, according to vice president of government and public relations
department Alan McCoy.
China is hot, Britain is finished: Jim Rogers -
more
Ferrochrome Q1 price in Europe slides
57 pct - Contract prices for ferrochrome between South African producers
and European steelmakers for the first quarter have tumbled 57 percent amid
weak demand, producers said on Friday. -
more
Antam Says Global Nickel Demand May
Fall 30 Percent - PT Aneka Tambang, Indonesia’s second-largest
nickel producer, expects global consumption to fall 30 percent this year
as the worldwide recession slows demand and European steel mills reduce output.
-
more
Brazil's Vale reports record nickel production
figures for 2008 - Brazilian mining giant Vale ramped up its nickel production
by 11.1% from 2007 figures to produce a record amount of 275,400 mt of nickel
in 2008, according to the company's annual production results released Wednesday.
-
more
Nippon Steel 'to cut output by record amount'
- Nippon Steel Corp. likely will cut crude steel output by 5 million tons,
or 15 percent, during the current fiscal year, marking the biggest production
cut in the firm's 39-year history, The Yomiuri Shimbun learned Thursday.
-
more
Nippon Steel, Tokyo Steel Plan Output Cuts as Recession Deepens - Nippon
Steel Corp., Asia’s largest steelmaker, and Tokyo Steel Manufacturing
Co. said they plan to reduce output to try to counter deteriorating demand
as the global recession deepens. -
more
General Review Of Stainless Steel In 2008
And Its Outlook For New Year = The Production In 2009 Will Have Large Decline
After Interval 20 Years, Its Prospect Is Unable To Foresee - The falsehood,
having increased the world production of stainless steel to a remarkable
extent in reliance on an expansion of the production in China for the last
2 - 3 years, has collapsed in 2008. -
part onepart two
POSCO Rides Out Global Slowdown Storm
- Steel makers around the world don't have good memories of last year. Battered
by dwindling orders, production cuts and tanking steel prices in the second
half of 2008, companies witnessed a boom-to-bust scenario that wiped out
even the good times in the first half. But is the worst over yet? -
more
ThyssenKrupp still sees sharp profit
drop - German industrial group ThyssenKrupp AG still expects sales and profits
to fall sharply this fiscal year due to the severe global economic downturn,
Chief Executive Ekkehard Schulz said on Friday. -
more
Hopes that Asia would buffer Australian
miners from the worst of the deepening global recession have evaporated.
- This is because China has confirmed its economy had suffered a dramatic
slowdown and was now growing at its slowest pace for seven years. -
more
MMC Norilsk Nickel cancels membership
in Russian National Inter-Industry Association of Employers' - Producers
of Nickel and Precious Metals - OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (MMC Norilsk
Nickel or the Company) announces that it cancels its membership in the Russian
National Inter-Industry Association of Employers – Producers of Nickel
and Precious Metals (Association). -
more
Russian State sells out of Arkhangelsk Port - The Russian federal Property
Authority (Rosimushchestvo) has laid 20 percent of its shares in the Arkhangelsk
Commercial Port out for sale. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) China's Economy Grew 6.8% in Fourth
Quarter, Slowest Pace in Seven Years // Asian Stocks Advance on Optimism
Government Policies Will Ease Recession // Mining Boom Turns to Bust in Western
Australia, Raising Risk of Recession // European Stocks Decline, Led by Fiat,
Nokia, BT Group on Earnings Concern // Stocks in U.S. Decline on Earnings,
Recession Concern; Microsoft Retreats // Housing Prices, Starts in U.S. Decline
at Record Pace as Recession Deepens
US Dollar is now trading 1/4 of 1% higher against the Euro, while NYMEX crude
is trading lower by 5%. Gold and silver are trading slightly higher, while
base metals, for the most part, ended lower. Nickel was one of two that rose
on the day, with indicator charts showing a strong first half of the day,
and a weakening latter part. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the
day slightly higher, at $4.97/lb
. We are seeing media reports from
different regions of the world that demand for scrap might be picking up.
According to figures released today by the World Steel Association, China
became the first country in history to produce more than 500 million tons
of crude steel in a year, up 2.6% over 2007. While overall world production
of steel fell 1.2% in 2008, the first time it has fallen in a decade, production
increased in China, South Korea, and India. In the US, production fell, as
it did in Germany, Russia, and the Ukraine. Macquarie Research estimates
stainless steel production alone, fell 30% YOY in the 4th quarter of 2008,
while the International Stainless Steel Forum estimates worldwide stainless
steel production fell by 7% to 26.6 million metric tons last year, with an
anticipated further decline this year. The Dow is bouncing around the 8000
mark, but the volatility index, while still remarkably high, is not dancing
around like it has the past few days. We leave you today with something that
we hope will make you smile (turn your volume up)
The last bull bows to the inevitable
- BHP Billiton's announcement on Wednesday it is suspending its giant
Ravensthorpe nickel mine and laying off 6,000 workers from its global workforce
means that the last metals bull in town has bowed to the inevitable. -
more
Prices for chromium in world market
continue to decrease - The prices for chromium in the world market continue
to decrease. According to the latest information of the agencies Dow Jones
Newswires and Metalindex.ru, the average spot for low-carbon ferrochrome
(chromium content of 65%) on the European market over the past month decreased.
-
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.14/lb
higher and climbing. The Dollar and
Euro are doing the slow dance this morning, nearly unchanged in trading.
NYMEX crude is trading 1/4 of 1% higher, while Brent Spot is a little over
1% lower. In overnight markets, Asian markets ended slightly higher, while
European markets are doing the same this morning. Wall Street futures are
showing red this morning, after a serious rebound in yesterday's trading,
but data this morning shows a rise in weekly jobless claims and housing starts
are at record low levels. Nickel inventories slipped back under 80,000 tonnes
overnight, and the BDI bounced to 945.
World crude steel production decreases by 1.2% in 2008 -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices fell sharply yesterday,
weighed down by continued uncertainty about how long the current global crisis
will last amidst a never-ending stream of poor macro readings. Mounting LME
stocks, coupled with a stronger dollar, were additional bearish influences
yesterday. However, some of the day’s earlier losses were made up by
the close, as metals piggybacked on the strong rally seen in the US equity
markets. In this regard, a good earnings report from IBM, news of insider
buying by banking executives, and a general bounce from oversold conditions
helped the stock market make up a good portion of Tuesday’s losses.
... As we wrote yesterday, we think short-term action in metals will
be influenced primarily by the fate of the US stock market over the next
few days, as the banking muddle is still a source of concern. Various equity
indices are expected to open mixed this morning, contributing to the equally
mixed picture we are seeing in metals, with copper, zinc, and tin all down,
but the balance of the group in positive territory. ... We are currently
at $11,150, up $245, and quiet. For the time being, prices seem to be holding
up within a short-term up channel, which will give way if we close below
$11,000." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Scotia) China’s laterite ores at discharging ports are being consumed
quickly over the most recent month. On January 8, 2009, the total stockpile
was 7.9 million tonnes at all ports, decreasing by 600,000 tonnes from December
2008, according to Antaike. ? Chinese low-grade nickel pig iron producers
started to resume partial production in November 2008, due to lower coke
prices and better realization of Fe credits. Currently, about 10 enterprises
using blast furnaces operated at full capacity in Shandong province. -
more
(Dow Jones) Norilsk, Russia's largest nickel producer, is cutting on investment
and costs, Strzhalkovsky said, adding that Norilsk's revenue is expected
to fall 50% from 2007 to $8 billion, "based on an optimistic scenario."
(ICDA) The Indian Association of ferroalloys (IFAPA) wants to impose a ban
on exports of chrome ore and chrome concentrate, which it said should be
used for domestic consumption.
(JMB) World nickel market will be 37,000 tonnes of oversupply in 2009, according
to Sumitomo Metal Mining. The firm expects the production is 1.336 million
tonnes and the consumption is 1.299 million tonnes, both of which increases
by 5.1% from 2008.
Investors Look to Bearish Sprott for Clues to Commodity Rebound -
more
Stephen Green with Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai - ""We think it is
way too early to call a recovery or even to claim that the worst is over,
though the shock experienced in Q4 will likely mutate into a dull pain."
-
more
Marubeni Says Scrap Steel Exports to China
Quadruple - Marubeni Corp., Japan’s second- largest scrap steel trader,
said its exports to China quadrupled in the past two months as demand improved
in response to a planned government stimulus. -
more
IFM output drops sharply, chrome-ore
inventory continues to dampen prices – LSE-listed ferrochrome producer
International Ferro Metals (IFM) CE David Kovarsky said he was confident
that low-cost ferrochrome producers, such at IFM, would be “rewarded”
when demand for the commodity picked up again. -
more
BHP Billiton may close Yabulu nickel
plant -analysts - BHP Billiton, the world's top miner, may suspend operations
at its Yabulu nickel refinery indefinitely after completing a study on its
future in the first half of 2009, analysts said on Thursday. -
more
More jobs fears as mining boom busts - A union is warning of massive job
cuts in mining to follow the loss of 3400 BHP Billiton positions yesterday.
-
more
Lengthy shutdown possible: analysts -
Vale Inco may close its Sudbury operations for two or three months in response
to falling demand for nickel and to pressure workers in contract negotiations,
analysts told Bloomberg Monday. -
more
Amcor to start nickel mining - The
Asiaticus Management Corporation (Amcor) is not backing out of its promise
to start the Pujada Nickel operation in Mati, Davao Oriental despite rumors
of several mining corporations putting their mining ventures on hold due
to the world economic crunch. -
more
Aussie miner Rusina may start
nickel ore production by 2011 - Australia and London-listed Rusina Mining
N.L. is on track to complete a $500-million nickel processing plant in Zambales
in two to three years, the head of the company said yesterday.-
more
Iron Ore Prices May Fall 50% on China
Slowdown, Rinehart Says - Iron ore contract prices may fall as much as 50
percent this year amid a slowdown in China, the world’s biggest consumer
of the raw material, according to Australia’s richest woman and mining
magnate Gina Rinehart.-
more
China Dec steel output up, first rise in
6 months - China's crude steel output rose 7 percent in December for the
first time in six months, in contrast to sharp drops in neighbours Japan
and South Korea, as a massive government spending plan pushed mills to lift
run rates. -
more
World steel output slumps 24.3 pct in Dec
- Global steel output plunged 24.3 percent year-on-year in December as recession
bites into nearly all the major steel producing countries, official data
showed on Thursday. -
more
EU Steel Prices Bottoming OUt - Upturn Expected in the Spring - Many steelmakers
and manufacturing companies took much longer breaks than usual over the
Christmas/New Year holiday period because of the current economic downturn.
- more
Eramet Marietta to cut ferroalloy output
- Eramet Marietta, Marietta, Ohio, plans to cut ferrochrome output indefinitely
in March due to the slump in demand from the steel industry. -
more
Nickel producer generates power sharing,
reduces blackouts with new control system - In the central part of Sulawesi,
Indonesia, in the middle of the jungle, sits an integrated mining and smelting
nickel producer, PT Inco. -
more
Amcor Plans to Ignore Singapore Ruling
in BHP Mine Dispute Case - Asiaticus Management Corp., a Philippine mining
company, plans to ignore a ruling from a Singapore arbitration panel that
said the Philippine courts have no jurisdiction over a dispute with BHP Billiton
Ltd. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending January
17, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,045,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 43.8 percent. Production was 2,154,000 tons
in the week ending January 17, 2008, while the capability utilization then
was 90.3 percent. The current week production represents a 51.5 percent decrease
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
January 17, 2009 is down 1.6 percent from the previous week ending January
10, 2009 when production was 1,062,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 44.5 percent.
Russian metals players look for support
as mega merger plan gains steam - Russian metal producers could save up to
300 million dollars this year. That's after the government cut export duties
on nickel and copper to zero. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) U.S. Stocks Rise as Obama Readies Plan;
Citigroup, Bank of America Gain // Asian Stocks Decline on Concern Bank Losses
Will Prolong Global Recession // Pound Plunges to Lowest Level Against Dollar
Since 1985 on Bank Concern (WSJ) Banks Again Sink Europe Stocks (Reuters)
GM loses global sales crown after 77 years // Wall Street up but Geithner
anxiety stifles rally
The US dollar is currently trading over 1/4 of 1% higher against the Euro,
while NYMEX crude is trading nearly 2% higher at $41.61/bbl. Except for tin,
base metals traded lower today. Indicator charts show nickel spent the day
on the slide, with a small bounce at the end of trading. Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at $4.95/lb
. Nickel inventories stored in LME warehouses
jumped way up overnight, and total just shy of 80,000 tonnes. Even with the
lay-off's and mine closures that seem to be happening at a faster pace, it
appears the 5% export duty cut by Russia may signal more nickel to come.
We mentioned a few days ago that Rotterdam was not receiving nickel like
we were used to seeing it, and while it has seen some shipments since, Europe
appears to be a favorite shipping destination for Norilsk and we will have
to wait and see if this reduction to their bottom line will boost shipments.
Speaking of shipping, the BDI edged up today. Australia got broad-sided
by news from BHP earlier, and the Australian media does not appear to hold
much sympathy for the company. Mega mines the size of Ravensthorpe are always
a huge gamble, no matter who the miner is, and in this case, its timing was
wrong. That is little comfort to the thousands of miners and support staff
who are now out of work, many living in the middle of nowhere. Miners are
losing their jobs daily, and while the huge lay off's like Rio Tinto's 14,000
announcement of last month, or BHP's 6000 more today have a tendency to make
headlines, it is the small independent miners that suffer mostly in silence,
with only local newspapers carrying their story. Now there are rumors from
Canada that Vale might be looking at more cuts. Goro is ready to fire up.
Will it? Koniambo is under construction. For how long? Onca Puma? Ramu? Caldag?
And numerous smaller operations under construction? We found it interesting
to note that while the worldwide economic recession is obviously the primary
culprit in the demise of Ravensthorpe, more than one article has China's
introduction and success with pig nickel as a contributing factor.
Whatever is too blame, whoever is too blame, all that matters at this
point, is that this is turning into one huge mess and more and more people
are getting hurt.
Commodity/Economic Comments
(RTT) Allegheny Technologies Q4 profit falls 25% - According to Allegheny,
demand was steady during the fourth quarter for the company's industrial
titanium sheet, grain-oriented electrical steel and nickel-based and specialty
alloy products, from the oil and gas as well as electrical energy markets.
Sales for the segment declined 14% from the year-ago quarter to $563.5 million,
due primarily to lower shipments for most products, lower raw material surcharges
and lower base prices. Shipments of standard stainless products decreased
22%..... Allegheny said it expects fiscal year 2009 to be challenging and
added that it expects weak demand from many of its end markets to continue
through the first half.
The Economy Is Bad, but 1982 Was Worse - You often hear that we are now living
through the worst recession since the early 1980s, and the comparison is
not wrong. But it’s ultimately unsatisfying, because it is a little
too vague to be useful. -
more
Production cuts by major global steel firms -
more
World Nickel Mkt In 42,900 Ton
Surplus Jan-Nov -WBMS - The world refined nickel market was in surplus by
42,900 metric tons in January-November of 2008, despite a drop in production,
the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday. -
more
Analysis - Aluminium, nickel to lag once
base metals recover - Aluminium and nickel are expected to struggle under
the weight of high inventories, and even when a recovery finally kicks in,
perhaps later this year, prices will be slower to pick up than other industrial
metals. -
more
Continued deterioration in metals demand ‘all too clear'--Barclays -
Barclays Capital analysts say that, as the fundamentals of metals prices
continue to deteriorate, they believe prices are poised for further losses
in the short term. -
more
Russia govt to drop nickel duty, cut copper
alloys - Russia's government will issue an order on Wednesday abolishing
a 5 percent export tariff on nickel and cutting substantially a 10 percent
tariff on some copper alloys, Russian news agencies reported. -
more
Steel prices: Ready to recover ? -
The worst could be over for depressed steel prices with slow improvement
on the cards in Europe as evidence grows that destocking in the $800 billion
industry is close to an end. -
more
Facing facts at BHP - BHP Billiton
was never going to be immune to the wave of trauma sweeping through the global
resources sector as demand for commodities, and their prices, have collapsed.
-
more
A new trophy for the wall of shame - There is a new entry into BHP Billiton's
trophy room for investment disasters. It's the ill-fated $5.6 billion
Ravensthorpe laterite nickel disaster. -
more
Ravensthorpe rout hits industry hard - BHP Billiton's decision to slash 6000
jobs worldwide, mothball and take a $US3.7 billion ($5.7 billion) write-down
on its disastrous Ravensthorpe nickel venture, and fess up to a $US333 million
hedging blunder, will have big implications for the mining, mining services
and contracting sectors. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.20/lb
lower. Typically, news of curtailment
of supply through a mine closure tends to support the price of a mined metal,
but apparently nickel traders are not concerned that further cuts made by
BHP, and potentially by Vale, will matter much at this point. All base metals
are trading in the red this morning, as the Euro and Dollar stare down one
another, with little change between their trading price. NYMEX crude is nearly
2% higher, trading just over $41.50/bbl. Overnight, Asian markets fell, and
this morning, European markets are trading lower. Only US futures show some
green to them, after a very rough close yesterday. BHP's closure of
Ravensthorpe, while not necessarily coming as a huge shock, has sent shock
waves thru the industry and some Australian media is already referring to
it as the great white elephant. The reality of just how bad it is out there
is slowly becoming more and more apparent. Especially in light of the fact
LME warehouses received in over 1000 tonnes in nickel over the last two days,
receiving some huge shipments overnight. The WBMS is reporting world
refined nickel market was in a surplus of 42,900 metric tons in January-November
of 2008, with world demand dropping by 1.9% during the year. Thanks to those
of you who contributed a vote on our nickel poll yesterday. 222 visitors
voted and here are the results as of this morning.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Base metals underwent a sharp
selloff on Tuesday, although the day's earlier lows did hold. In fact, we
are still some ways off from retesting the December 2008 lows in most of
the group, except for ali, whose chart picture is looking increasingly dire.
Yesterday also saw broad-based declines in many other markets, with energy
losing ground, particularly on the forward contracts. ... There was not much
in terms of news out yesterday, as practically all markets were taking stock
of the historical spectacle of seeing President Barack Obama being sworn
in as the 44th President of the United States. However, the guarded optimism
generated by his speech did not do much to alter the mood in the US equity
markets, where stocks finished sharply lower, as banking stocks once again
took it on the chin. The weakness in banking is of growing concern to the
markets -- if banks are perceived to be weak or failing, there is little
chance that they will be at the vanguard of lending efforts to lead the economy
out of its current funk. .... For the moment, we think most commodity
markets, metals included, will be held hostage by the fate of the US stock
market, and in particular, on the outlook for banking stocks. Equities are
called to open slightly higher this morning, but metals are trading down,
perhaps indicative of the lingering skepticism about the problems at hand.
.... We are currently at $11,150, down $400, and quiet. For the time
being, prices seem to be within a short-term up channel, which will give
way with a close below $11,000. In such an event, we could see further erosion
to the $10,200 mark." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
(Yieh) China imported 324,648 tons of chrome ore in November of 2008, around
50 percent down compared to the same month of last year.
(SBB) Chinese domestic stainless prices have continued to ease over the past
month due to weak demand. Grade 304 prices fell by RMB 500-600/tonne ($73-88/t)
while Grade 202 and 430 prices both slipped by RMB 100/t ($15/t).
(WSJ) Brazilian miner Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO), or Vale, has suggested
it could accept a 10% reduction in this year's iron ore contract prices,
a Shanghai-based analyst with sources in Baoshan Iron & Steel or Baosteel,
said Wednesday.
(SG) It is reported that stainless steel service center major Saritas Celik
Sanayi ve Ticaret AS despite the global crisis, in memory of its 50th
anniversary, has started a new major investment project in Gebze Industrial
Zone near Istanbul. The groundbreaking ceremony took place on January 15th
2009.
BHP Faces $1.7 Billion Charge on Mine
Closure, Jobs - BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company,
may take $1.7 billion in one-time charges after closing a nickel mine in
Australia and slashing 6,000 jobs as the global recession curbs demand for
minerals. -
more
Thousands Lose Jobs as Australia's Once-Mighty Mining Sector Suffers - Mining
giant BHP Billiton is cutting more than 3,000 jobs in Australia and will
close a major nickel mine, because of poor profitability prospects. -
more
Vale May Cut Canadian Nickel Output as
Demand Drops - Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s second-biggest
nickel miner, may announce further cuts to its Canadian nickel operations
to contend with falling demand and to pressure workers in contract negotiations,
analysts said. -
more
New Caledonia’s southern province
and SLN sign up for joint deal - New Caledonia’s nickel producer SLN
and the government of the southern province have signed a partnership agreement
centered on giving SLN access to a large nickel ore deposit -
more
Global Steel Production Down in 2008 and
to Fall Again in 2009 - The speed of collapse in steel demand throughout
the world surprised the producers, consumers, distributors and analysts,
including MEPS researchers. -
more
BHP Billiton Can Proceed With Philippines
Nickel Mine - BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) will be allowed to pursue development
plans for a Philippine nickel mine after an international arbitration panel
ruled in the Australian miner's favor in a conflict with a local partner,
Philippines Environment Secretary Jose Atienza said Wednesday. -
more
Steel, Aluminum Shipments Continue Downward
Trend in December - Shipments of steel products from U.S. and Canadian metals
service centers fell by nearly 30% for a second consecutive month in December,
while inventories of the metal continued a steady decline in year-over-year
comparisons, the Metals Activity Report from the Metals Service Center Institute
shows. U.S. service center inventories declined again in December. -
more
Japan Dec crude steel output tumbles 28
pct yr/yr - Japan's crude steel output tumbled 28 percent in December from
the same month a year earlier, touching its lowest in nearly a decade as
a deepening economic recession slashed demand for autos, construction machinery
and other products. -
more
Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys At 15th January 2009 = Developments
Of Prices For Ferro-Alloys, After Lunar New Year In China Was Over, Are Marked
-
more here
Indonesia sees mine investment below
$1 bln in '09 - Mining investment in Indonesia may drop below $1 billion
this year and there may be no fresh projects as metal prices fall and miners
await details from a new mining bill, a senior industry official said on
Wednesday. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks, U.S. Futures Slump as
Recession Concern Worsens; HSBC Drops // China Faces Worst Unemployment in
Decades as Economy Cools, Exports Slump // European Stocks Decline for Second
Day; Logitech, BNP Paribas Shares Fall // Royal Bank of Scotland Will Be
Guinea Pig for `Creeping Nationalization' // U.S. Stocks Fall on Profit Concern;
State Street, Wells Tumble // Obama Becomes 44th U.S. President With
Call for Leadership, Responsibility
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, currently by about
1.3%. NYMEX crude oil is nearly 6% higher this afternoon, nearing the $39/bbl
mark. Gold is trading about 2-1/2% higher, while base metals ended mostly
lower. Indicator charts reflect nickel made a comeback in late afternoon
trading, before starting to losing steam at the close of the trading day.
Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$5.24/lb . BDI
crept up overnight, as did nickel inventories stored in LME warehouses. Sucden's
day old chart shows yesterday's trading crept above the trendline's, and
today's trading will not change this
(here). Financials
are beating the world markets up - again. Wall Street started the day lower,
and has been slipping ever since. President Obama, in his inaugural address,
got traders talking when he stated the following. "Nor is the question before
us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth
and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without
a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot
prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy
has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but
on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every
willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to
our common good."
Commodity/Economic Comments
(WSJ) It has loads of subprime-mortgage bonds, souring commercial real-estate
debt and collateralized debt obligations worth a fraction of their original
value. This isn't Citigroup Inc. or Merrill Lynch. It is the Federal Reserve.
-
more
(Xinhua) XH Ji En Nickel estimates 2008 net to fall 90-100 pct
Steve Lawson of Marex Financial - "Steel prices continue to drift lower despite
signs of slightly better activity in the physical market."
The White House View of the Economy -
more Economic Report of the President -
more
Norilsk Nickel Expects 09 Rev At $8B;
Down 50% From 07 - Russian mining and metals giant OAO Norilsk Nickel said
revenue will fall by about half to $8 billion in 2009, given the decline
in demand and prices caused by the global financial crisis.-
more
Analysis: New opportunities for China's
Steel Industry - Chinese steel enterprises will get through the most difficult
time and solve the long-existing problems in the industry with the latest
support package announced by the State Council. -
more
Braemore's Aussie nickel project is
viable - Confirmation that Braemore Resources’ Leinster nickel tailings
project in Australia is viable had the platinum and nickel miner higher Tuesday.
-
more
Output increases for Nickel firm Minara - Minara Resources Ltd, Australia's
second largest nickel producer, has delivered an increase in fourth quarter
output and says the company remains focused on cost saving initiatives. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.17/lb
lower, as all base metals head south
on a stronger dollar, which is trading over 1% higher against the Euro. Oil
is trading lower, with NYMEX crude off nearly 6-1/2% and Brent spot off nearly
2%. In overnight trading Asian markets ended lower, with the S&P Asia
50 Index ending nearly 2-1/2% lower. European markets are lower and waiting
for US markets to open, which futures show, will open lower.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals ended up mixed yesterday,
with most eking out modest gains, but aluminum was under relentless pressure,
closing at its lowest level since September 2003. Trading on the whole was
very quiet since US equity markets were closed, as were most North American
commodity exchanges. Things are off to a different -- and more negative --
start today, as we are seeing broad-based declines in metals. This time,
the group is being hit by both a stronger dollar and soaring LME stocks.
Of the two variables, the dollar’s influence should not be minimized.
The greenback climbed to $1.2921 against the Euro at one point earlier in
the day, the strongest level since Dec. 10th. Sterling has also taken a beating,
briefly breaking the $1.40 mark, before recovering somewhat. ... Of course,
the major political event of the day, is President-elect Obama's upcoming
inauguration. We still maintain that despite the current weakness, markets
could stabilize somewhat over the current week, as the Obama administration
rushes to unveil new proposals in an attempt to get ahead of the mounting
economic crisis. Nowhere is the need more urgent than in the banking sector,
where we suspect something more radical would be unveiled, perhaps along
the lines of a government-sponsored entity to buy up nonperforming bank assets.
....We are currently at $11,025, down $250, and quiet. Charts suggest a gradual
drift lower towards $10200. (read Ed Meir's complete morning base
metals report
here)
Saudi Basic Industries, the Gulf region's largest steel maker, has temporarily
suspended steel operations in Saudi Arabia.
(Interfax) China's stainless steel production reached around 6.9 million
tons in 2008, sliding by 4.25 percent from the 7.21 million tons recorded
in the previous year, according to a report from the Stainless Steel Council
of China Special Steel Enterprises Association (CSSC) on Jan. 19.
(Reuters) The world's top producer of nickel, Russia's Norilsk Nickel, forecast
its 2009 revenue would fall by more than half and it would have to cut costs,
as the global financial crisis hits demand. .... He did not provide more
figures but said the company planned to halve its investment projects and
to halt some foreign assets, namely in Australia and South Africa. It does
not plan to cut staff in Russia. -
more
(Dow Jones) (Nickel) has traded as high as $13,550 this year after index
reweighting gave it a boost, but BNP Paribas says that fundamentally there
is unlikely to be any turnaround until 2H09, when China's stimulus plans
hopefully trickle down to help construction sector, a key end-user of stainless
steel. For now though, "nickel fundamentals remain weak as activity in the
stainless steel sector is subdued."
(RMG) Metal prices will continue to fall during 2009, says Raw Materials
Group in their yearly prognosis. The production cuts that have been made
have not been enough to change the trend of falling prices.
(SBB) US stainless consumption down 12%, import share up
'Black Swan Test:' big losers, right or left brains? -
more
Chasing Bonds Rally Is 'Terrible Mistake': Jim Rogers -
more
Nickel and the perils of false dawns
- The LME "street" doesn't do prolonged recessions very well. A natural
tendency to bullish exuberance has been accentuated by the extraordinary
bull run of the last few years. -
more
Anglo halts production at Loma nickel
mine - Anglo American Plc has temporarily halted production at its
Loma nickel mine in Venezuela, the firm said on Tuesday. -
more
No Guarantees We Will Survive-Seb -
Tati Nickel Mining Company (TNMC) new general manager Sebetlela Sebetlela
has lamented the fall in metal prices on the world market, saying it is a
huge challenge for the mining industry. -
more
General Review Of Nickel In 2008 And Its
Outlook For New Year = Boom For Material Resources Was Over, Nickel Price
Is Moving On Realities Of Supply / Demand - A fever for the boomed material
resources as continued for 3 calendar years has gone away and nickel price
is anticipated to move in 2009 on the realities of its supply and demand.
-
more here
Eramet wins permit for N.Caledonia
nickel deposits - Eramet ERMT.PA. has won an exploration licence for two
nickel deposits in New Caledonia that could potentially double its output
of the metal, the French mining group said on Tuesday. -
more
LME volumes seen firm in 2009, but no
new record - Trading activity on the London Metal Exchange will be
boosted by investors and high volatility this year, but volumes are unlikely
to beat last year's record because producers and consumers are expected to
stay away. -
more
Nickel miner facing collapse - The
depressed nickel price has left the Zambian nickel miner Albidon on the brink
of collapse while its peers struggle to remain profitable. -
more
BHP workers will know worst today -
The anxious wait for BHP Billiton's global workforce — on the depth
of cut-backs in response to the collapse in commodity prices — ends
today with the release of the group's December-quarter report. -
more
Global crisis hits $1.7B mining projects
- The global financial crisis and other factors have stalled the development
of key mining projects in Southern Mindanao, a government official has said.
-
more
Steelmaker Evraz sees full production
in 2009 -paper - Russian steelmaker Evraz Group raised output in January
and will probably return to full production this year, its co-owner Alexander
Abramov said in an interview with Vedomosti newspaper published on Tuesday.
-
more
China Watch: Stimulus Is Working, Steel
Demand on the Rise - According to a China's Sina.com report that the first
massive stimulus package in the world, China's $680B stimulus is making progress,
the economy has shown signs of recovery at the end of 2008. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks Gain on Government Efforts
to End Credit Crisis; Honda Rises // European Economy to Contract for First
Time Since Introduction of the Euro // Stocks in Europe Decline; Royal Bank
of Scotland, BASF, Barclays Retreat // Russian Gas Shipments to Europe Will
Resume Under 10-Year Ukraine Contract //
The US Dollar continues to trade higher against the Euro, by 1-1/2%. Nymex
crude oil is trading 5.42% lower, around $34.50/bbl, and Brent Spot is trading
1-1/2% lower around $43/bbl. Metals ended mixed, but mostly higher. Not typical
in that a higher dollar and a falling equity market is typically a double
whammy that metals have to contend with. Indicator charts show nickel started
higher this morning, slipped to a low in early afternoon trading, then resumed
a climb until late, when it bounced pretty good. Dow Jones reports three
month nickel ended the day at $5.13/lb
. Numerous media accounts are reporting Rusal's
Oleg Deripaska and Norilsk's Vladimir Potanin want Russia to take partial
ownership of a proposed merger that could create a mega mining company. We
would be curious to know if this is really what these companies want, or
is this what Russia wants? Whichever it is, the Russian's way of doing business
tend to keep things interesting. Australia media is a buzz with speculation
BHP may be forced to shut down Ravensthorpe. This would be an embarrassing
setback for BHP and reflect poorly on the long term security of laterite
nickel mining. Nickel inventories stored in LME warehouses gained over the
weekend. We have seen a shift in inbound flow since the first of the year.
Not sure if this has anything to do with the holiday break, but typical inflow
is nearly always Rotterdam first, other warehouses second. This year, Rotterdam
stock has fallen slightly, while the Singapore warehouse is seeing the majority
of the inflows. The BDI slipped again, but the downtrend appears to be slowing.
Wall Street is closed today for Martin Luther King's birthday, and the U.S.
gets a new President tomorrow at noon.
(Xinhua) Xu Lejiang, chairman of China's top steel maker Baosteel Group,
parent of Baosteel, expects the domestic demand for steel products remain
soft in 2009 although the government has introduced a 4-trillion-yuan economic
stimulus package which includes huge investment into steel-consuming projects
such as railway construction.
US Airways 1549 - video of crash, seconds after the crash, and rescue boats
arriving -
here
BHP to come clean on damage to output
from global crisis - BHP Billiton's reluctance to detail production hits
forced by the global financial crisis will come to an end tomorrow with the
release of a warts-and-all production report for the December quarter. -
more
Commodities and China face hard landing
- The still weakening economic picture in China is placing a bleaker outlook
for commodities. Major commodity export countries, particularly connected
to iron ore and coal, are likely to face a sharp fall in demand. -
more
Strong foundations for metals price recovery
- Mining output cuts and shelved investment plans are laying the foundations
for a strong metals price recovery when the world eventually returns to growth,
fund manager BlackRock said. -
more
Steel makers to push for 15% import duty
- Steel majors like SAIL, Tata, JSW and Essar may push for a higher import
tariff on steel at a meeting convened by the government tomorrow, even as
the dip in foreign arrivals has weakened the case for duty hike. -
more
Fortescue to stand on benchmarking
sidelines - Fortescue Metals may be the self-proclaimed "new force in iron
ore" but it has turned down the chance to be a force in this year's benchmark
pricing negotiations. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.04/lb
higher. Dollar is trading nearly 1-1/4%
higher against the Euro, while crude oil is trading over 2-1/2% lower. Metals
are trading mostly lower. In overnight trading, Asian markets closed slightly
higher, and European markets are lower. US markets are closed for a holiday.
Lot of speculation going on in Australia about the future of mega nickel
mine Ravensthorpe. With quarterly results due out Wednesday, some analysts
expect BHP to close the mine if it has been unable to get out of the red
due to low nickel prices.
Iron & Steel Statistics Bureau, January 2009 -
more
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices ended up
mixed on Friday, as some stability returned to the US stock market, although
banking stocks were still very wobbly. However, poor macro data kept the
upside in check, with industrial production numbers for December falling
by 2%, almost double the prevailing estimates. ... We have started
the week on a down note in metals, as markets await the inauguration of
President-elect Obama tomorrow. ... We are currently at $10,950, up $95,
and very quiet. Charts suggest a gradual drift lower towards $10200 support,
with more major support evident at $9300." (read Ed Meir's complete morning
base metals report
here)
(Interfax) Nickel pig iron business still profitable despite economic downturn
-Qixin Nickel president -
more
(Yieh) Japanese stainless steel scrap prices has increased by ?15,000/ton
in January since the end of last year, but the stainless steelmakers are
still remaining their purchasing prices unchanged.
(Reuters) Baoshan Iron and Steel Co Ltd has raised its sale prices for major
hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel products for March by 300 yuan per tonne
from February levels, a source with direct knowledge said on Monday. -
more
(Bloomberg) Russia’s government may gain a blocking 25 percent stake
in a new metals and mining holding based on OAO Norilsk Nickel and without
United Co. Rusal, Vedomosti said, citing unidentified people familiar with
talks.
Sumitomo Metal Mining to Extend Metals
Production Cut - Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan's top nickel producer
and second-largest copper smelter, plans to extend metal production cuts
to June because of slumping demand, a company executive said. -
more
Stainless steel producers want nickel duty
abolished - Concerned that the import duty on ferro nickel has made it dearer
by Rs 2,400 a tonne and was reducing the competitiveness of domestic stainless
steel industry, the stainless steel producers have pleaded with the Steel
Ministry to recommend abolition of the said duty. -
more
Steel makers want 5 pc import duty on ferro-nickel scrapped - The Indian
Stainless Steel Development Association, the body representing domestic
manufacturers of the alloy, has sought removal of five per cent import duty
levied on ferro-nickel. -
more
Macquarie Cuts Price Forecasts for Metals,
Coal on Demand Slump - Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts slashed price forecasts
for copper, aluminum, coal and iron ore as last year's slump in commodities
is expected to extend into the first half of 2009. -
more
Metals Insider: Exit index funds, re-enter
gloom - The passage of the index funds' annual re-weighting exercise and
a collective refocusing on the dire state of metals demand led to a topsy-turvy
week's trading in the LME complex. -
more
Plunging consumption dampens LME moly
contract launch: sources - Plunging molybdenum oxide consumption in Japan
has dampened earlier expectations for the London Metal Exchange molybdenum
oxide contract launch later this year, market sources said Monday. -
more
South Africa: Chrome Stockpiles Worry
Xstrata - The suspension of 80% of the Xstrata-Merafe joint venture's ferrochrome
capacity may not be enough, considering the buildup of ferrochrome stockpiles
and the slowdown of production in the stainless steel industry, Samancor
Chrome chairman Dankor Konchar said on Friday. -
more
Analysts: Vale, Baosteel scrapped CSV
slab project due to lack of credit - Brazilian market analysts say diminished
credit was the main reason that Chinese steelmaker Baosteel and Brazilian
miner Vale decided to scrap the 5Mt/y Companhia Siderúrgica Vitória
steel slab project. -
more
MMK Says Not Buying Mechel Coal -Mechel,
majority-owned by billionaire Igor Zyuzin, halted deliveries of coking coal
to Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works last month after the two failed to
agree on a price and 1 billion rubles ($31 million) of bills were left unpaid.
-
more
Russian tycoons plan state-backed metals giant - Two Russian metals billionaires
have proposed the creation of a mining giant part-owned by the Kremlin that
would wipe out existing debts and rival the world's top miners, a spokeswoman
for Vladimir Potanin said on Monday. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Sunday, January 18
Commodity/Economic Comments
(TASS) The lead world chromium producer Xstrata has stopped 80% of its
Xstrata-Merafe Chrome Venture capacities due to demand decrease, the company
reports. 17 ferrochromium furnaces of the total capacity 1.37 mln tons a
year are stopped including 11 furnaces that were stopped on 1 December 2008.
The company has not dismissed the staff relying on a quick market recovery.
(Yomiuri) Japan - A record 16.2 percent fall in the amount of machinery orders
in November from the previous month is an indication of the unwillingness
to invest in plants and other facilities expressed by the corporate sector
in recent months ... In November, orders at many heavy industrial companies
have more than halved from the previous month. Orders at steel plants fell
52.9 percent, and those for oil and coal products fell 54.7 percent and those
of chemical makers fell 51.4 percent.
(Times) Output from US factories dropped by 2 per cent last month, leaving
it down by 7.8 per cent on a year earlier, in the sharpest annual fall suffered
since September 1975, an indication of the deepening malaise in American
manufacturing.
(Reuters) For the world monetary system, the financial crisis which erupted
in the summer of 2007 is a cataclysmic shift that will prove every bit as
significant as the outbreak of the First World War (which heralded sterling's
demise as a reserve currency) and the suspension of gold convertibility in
1971 (which marked the end of bullion's monetary role). -
more
(Angel Commodities) Nickel prices would be tied to the fate of Steel industry
and we expect the prices to trade in the range of $ 8,500 /tonne to $
20,000/tonne at LME and Rs. 400 / kg to Rs. 960 / kg in domestic markets.
(comment - somewhere between $3.85/lb and $9.07/lb?? Now that's the way
to forecast without sticking your neck out too far)
Emirates Business - Tanker owners are expecting charter rates on most voyages
to firm up in the coming days as the practice of storing crude oil on
supertankers reaches record levels, said senior industry players and analysts.
More than seven per cent of the current total fleet for VLCCs (very large
crude carriers) has been booked for crude oil storage Oil producers,
refiners and several investors are putting surplus volumes in floating storage
in the hope that crude oil demand and prices will rise sharply in the next
four months, a practice widely referred to as contango
Nickel strengthens on pick up in industrial
demand - New Delhi: Nickel prices on Saturday rose further by Rs 5 per kg
in the national capital today on increased industrial demand. -
more
BHP's Ravensthorpe mine on brink as
nickel price falls - Speculation is growing that BHP Billiton is about to
take a tough decision on the future of its $2.2 billion Ravensthorpe laterite
nickel mine in Western Australia. -
more
Rio staff reeling on horror week - Rio Tinto is moving quickly to deliver
the first of 14,000 job cuts it has promised the market as it battles to
deal with its debt load at a time of weak commodity demand. -
more
Japanese steelmakers postpone 2009 nickel
contract renewals - Japanese specialty steelmakers are postponing renewals
of annual nickel supply contracts with producers as their metal consumption
falls in a weak economy, market sources said Friday. -
more
LME Nickel Prices Up, New Asian Biz Afoot
For Stainless CR Sheets - With an advance in LME nickel prices, the Asian
stainless steel market for Ni-based CR sheets is reacting with some moves.
LME nickel prices moved up to US$5.60/lb Jan 2 and to a level of US$6.00/lb
Jan 6 from US$4.30-4.40/lb Dec 23 last year. -
more
US steel sector backs 'American Steel First
Act' - The Buy America Coalition expressed its support Friday for "The American
Steel First Act," legislation introduced Thursday to the US Congress by
Representatives Pete Visclosky (Democrat-Indiana) and Tim Murphy
(Republican-Pennsylvania). The coalition consists of the American Iron and
Steel Institute, the Committee on Pipe and Tube Imports, the National Steel
Bridge Alliance and the Steel Manufacturers Association. -
more
Bear market is expected to force metals
prices even lower in 2009 - The six-year bull run in commodities definitely
is over: World prices of base metals dropped by an average 30% in 2008 as
end-use markets went into a second-half demand depression. -
more
Steel prices likely to decline further -
Dubai: The price of steel is expected to decline further in the first quarter
of this year, according to industry officials. -
more
Nippon predicts global steel industry may need 2-3 years to recover from
the current downturn - Japan's Nippon Steel believes the global steel industry
may need two to three years to recover from the current downturn, its chairman
said. - more
Vale, Baosteel cancel US$5-billion steel
project amid downturn - The slowing global economy has prompted Brazil's
largest miner and China's second-biggest steelmaker to cancel plans for a
US$5-billion steel slab plant in southern Brazil, costing thousands of jobs,
the Brazilian miner said Friday. -
more
Oligarch turns to Rothschild over Rusal
debt - United Company Rusal, the aluminium giant in effect controlled by
Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, has called in the London office of investment
bank Rothschild to restructure its $14bn (£9.5bn) debt burden. -
more
Historical Statistics for Mineral and
Material Commodities in the United States -
links here
Baltic Dry Index
Downturn will be brutal but short-lived, says broker - A gathering
of gloomy members of the Hong Kong Shipowners’ Association had to take
what consolation they could from the financial crisis when a panel of industry
experts told them it would be brutal but relatively short-lived.-
more
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Asian Stocks Rise, Pare Weekly Loss,
on Weaker Yen, China Stimulus Report // Yen, Dollar Fall as U.S. Bank Bailouts
Reduce Haven Appeal of Currencies // Singapore's Exports in December Post
Biggest Decline in Almost Seven Years // Barclays Plunges 25% on Concern
`Bad Bank' Would Leave It at Disadvantage // European Stocks Rise, Led by
Rio; Stoxx 600 Gains First Time in Eight Days // Paulson, Bair Advance Idea
of `Aggregator Bank' to Remove Illiquid Assets // Bank of America Has First
Loss in 17 Years, Gets $138 Billion U.S. Bailout // Stocks in U.S. Decline
After Bank of America Rescue Fails to Boost Banks
The Dollar is still trading lower against the Euro, but not nearly as much
as earlier this morning; now down by 6/10 of 1%. Base metals ended mixed
as the dollar strengthened, while precious metals gained. Indicator charts
show nickel opened higher, climbed a little in morning trading, then drifted
thru the afternoon. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$4.92/lb .
Nickel inventories stored in LME warehouses slipped overnight, but
for the week gained a few hundred tonnes. The Baltic Dry Index fell again,
but ended the week 10 points higher. The volatility index shows the market
is a little calmer than yesterday, but still trading is lower. Sucden's day
old chart shows nickel has entered a period of sideway trading
(chart here). No
real news out since our morning update, so we posted a few charts courtesy
of Macquarie Research. Hat's off to Sully Sullenberger. If the U.S. Congress
can bring our economy into half as soft a landing as you did that commercial
jet into the Hudson River, then we might all get thru this with some minor
bruising. Then again, everyone got off safely and the plane eventually sank...
so maybe not the best analogy we've ever done. Have a restful and safe weekend
and we hope to see you back again next week.
Courtesy Macquarie Research
$3.8b nickel refinery planned for central
Qld - The State Government has approved plans for Australia's largest nickel
refinery to be built in Gladstone in central Queensland. -
more
Russia Prepares To Rival Rio And BHP -
A merger of Russian miners could be unwelcome competition for beleaguered
European miners. -
more
Chrome cuts sting Merafe - Merafe
Resources shares fell hard on Friday after it said ferrochrome production
at its joint venture with Xstrata would be further curtailed, bringing the
reduction to 80% of installed capacity. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.12/lb
higher. At the moment, all base metals ,
except aluminum, are trading in the green. One reason, if not the sole reason,
is the US Dollar is trading lower against the Euro this morning, down by
1.2%, and falling.
In overnight action, Asian markets bounced back from yesterday's losses,
with a nearly 2% gain, and European markets are trading around 2% higher
this morning, as well. Even Wall Street looks to have a better opening, with
futures forecasting a triple digit opening in the green. What has traders
in a better mood today than they have been most of the week? The US government
has come to the rescue of the financial system yet again, with a $20 billion
loan to Bank of America and guaranteeing losses on over $400 billion
of assets of Citigroup and Bank of America. According to Barry Ritholtz of
the "Big Picture", Citigroup and Bank of America have now received loans
and guarantees in excess of their total worth. Believe it or not.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices lost modest
ground on Thursday, but were off the worst levels of the day, as the dollar
weakened, while US stocks recouped most of their losses from much steeper
declines. The focus for much of the day was on the US stock market and on
banking stocks in particular. ... Should we see nothing else break over the
next few days, we could see a somewhat better tone set in for metals as US
equity markets. Right now, stock futures are pointing towards a modestly
higher opening, and we are seeing corresponding advances in metal prices.
Energy markets are also higher, while the dollar is weaker today, now trading
at close to 1.33 against the Euro. ... Finally, yesterday’s Financial
Times reports that investors withdrew a net $150 bln from hedge funds during
the month of December, this despite moves by dozens of funds to halt or suspend
redemptions. The FT further noted that the record December figure was equivalent
to about 10% of industry assets. We see no reason for redemption actions
to stop over the short-term, and this should keep rallies in a variety of
markets in check, best exemplified by the January retreat in the US equities.
However, at some point, investors who want out will be out, helping stabilize
the pendulum somewhat, and perhaps setting the stage for a broader-based
market recovery later in the year. We will have more to say on this subject
in the next two weeks when we present a longer-term piece on the 2009 macro
and metals outlook. .. We are currently at $11,100, up $405, and quiet. Charts
suggest somewhat further gains from here, as a short-term upchannel has held
up this week, and we could see a move off it. " (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
(WSJ) The Kremlin is considering a plan to merge some of Russia's largest
metals companies into a conglomerate in which the government would take a
substantial minority stake, in exchange for writing off some of the crushing
debts of the tycoons who control the companies, according to people familiar
with the discussions. A combined metals company would have annual revenue
of as much as $40 billion, and give Russia a player to rival global giants
like BHP Billiton.
Why hedge funds are liquidating commodities -
more
Govt approves $3.8b Gladstone nickel
refinery - Australia's largest nickel refinery has been approved by the
Queensland government. -
more
Merafe suspends 6 more ferrochrome
furnaces - South Africa's Merafe Resources said on Friday it would temporarily
suspend a further six ferrochrome furnaces, raising the cuts in annual production
to 1.37 million tonnes or 80 percent of output. -
more
Chrome cut, price outlook stings Merafe - Merafe Resources shares fell hard
on Friday after it said ferrochrome production at its joint venture with
Xstrata would be further curtailed, bringing the reduction to 80% of installed
capacity. -
more
BHP’s Coking Coal Exports at
Australian Port Drop 20% - The BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, the
world’s largest coking coal exporter, shipped 20 percent less of the
fuel from its largest Australian port last month amid a slump in demand for
the steelmaking material. -
more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending January
10, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,062,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 44.5 percent. Production was 2,154,000 tons
in the week ending January 10, 2008, while the capability utilization then
was 90.3 percent. The current week production represents a 50.7 percent decrease
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
January 10, 2009 is up 22.7 percent from the previous week ending January
3, 2009 when production was 866,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization
was 36.3 percent.
Actual Cargoes Of High Carbon Fe-Cr In USA Are Turning To Scarcity = Pipeline
Stocks Have Tightened, Opinion To Bottom Out By 80 US-Cents Per Lb. Of Cr
-
more
No Short-Term Positives For Commodity Prices
- Commodities enjoyed a positive start to 2009, but as Barclays Capital points
out, this is quickly fading. -
more
Sumitomo Developing Lithium, Nickel Abroad
- Sumitomo Corp. is bolstering efforts to secure natural resources used in
rechargeable batteries before shortages predicted for the future materialize.
-
more
Job losses in mining sector to be
widespread - Job losses in SA’s mining sector in 2009 will be
widespread as companies restructure their operations in view of weaker demand
and lower resource prices, consultancy Frost & Sullivan said on Friday.
-
more
Comment - Whether its politics
or not, some of the statements these Congressmen made during the last stimulus
debate, and now this one, are very disconcerting. For instance, yesterday,
The Hill reported the following .... "House Appropriations Committee Chairman
David Obey (D-Wis.) also told reporters it may not be the last effort to
use big government spending to spur the economy. “This represents
the largest effort by any legislative body in the world to take government
action to prevent economic catastrophe,” Obey said, “and
even that may be insufficient alone.”
(source) What the heck? Are we in a severe recession or
teetering on the edge of financial disaster? Is this a legitimate statement
or just another "weapons of mass destruction" political scare tactic for
we, the ignorant masses? And here is more butter for your morning toast ....
Depression ahead, prepare for stock rout: SocGen - Societe Generale said
on Thursday that the United States' economy looks likely to enter a depression
and China's could implode. -
more
Good grief.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Japan Machinery Orders Fall by Record
16.2% as Exports Collapse // U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 524,000
Last Week // Stocks in U.S. Retreat as Banks Seen Needing More Funds; Citigroup
Drops // Asian Stocks Slump as Japan Machinery Orders Sink; Advantest, Samsung
Fall // Trichet Signals ECB May Cut Interest Rates in March as Recession
Deepens // Stocks in Europe Decline; HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Infineon Technologies
Drop (MarketWatch) Bears throw Dow 8,000 bash
US Dollar is trading 1.1% higher against the Euro after the ECB cut a key
rate by 50 points. Crude oil has slipped under $34/barrel and is down over
10%.... just today. Precious metals are trading lower, and base metals ended
mostly lower. Nickel started the morning lower according to indicator charts,
rebounded in early afternoon trading, before sliding nearly $400/tonne in
a few hours, and then rebounding a little before the close. Dow Jones reports
three month nickel ended the day at $4.85/lb
and rising. Nickel inventories gained slightly overnight, and the Baltic Dry Index finally ran out of gas overnight, showing a 12 point drop today. Sucden's day old chart shows nickel trading thru yesterday (here). Volatility continues to climb, ending below 50 last night, but is presently at 55 and rising. Nowhere near its 80 point high's of October 27th and November 20th of last year, but dangerously high, nonetheless. European markets ended today's trading lower, and here in the States, Wall Street is trading in the red. The Dow fell as low as 8000 earlier in the session, a mark that bears a big psychological explanation point, but the market has bounced back from that point since. Just eight days ago the Dow was reaching for the 9200 level. Another half million plus American's lost their job last week, a number that would have staggered us just a few months ago, but one we seem to have grown numb too since. Unless, of course, we are one of the half million. The media, who loves to crunch numbers, is noting that if the Dow ends lower for the seventh time today, it will be the longest losing streak the market has had since the early October 2008 slide (8 days) in reaction to Lehman Brothers folding. With nothing but bad news to share, we thought we would leave you with a few words from the song 'Roadhouse Blues' by the Doors - "Well, I woke up this morning, And I got myself a beer. The futures uncertain, And the end is always near. Let it roll, baby, roll." (listen)
Commodity/Economic Comments
(Dow Jones) The Russian government is generally supportive of proposals by
the country's top metal producers to support prices that have been falling
by cutting export duties on nickel, copper and aluminum products and creating
a state strategic metals reserve, people familiar with the matter told Dow
Jones Newswires Thursday.
(Dow Jones) Russian miner OAO Norilsk Nickel has resumed operations at its
Tati mine in Botswana, which was temporary closed Dec. 24, the company told
Dow Jones Newswires Thursday
(The Times) ArcelorMittal's currently idled Riverdale, IL finishing plant
will resume steel operations in two weeks.
NMDC sees iron ore demand rising by January-end
- After registering an over 35 per dip in iron ore sales during the last
couple of months, state-run mining giant National Mineral Development Corporation
(NMDC) sees demand picking up by the end of January on the back of steps
taken by the public sector firm. -
more
Paul Skinner to step down as chairman
of Rio Tinto - Paul Skinner is to step down as chairman of Rio Tinto, the
Anglo-Australian miner, amid speculation that he will move to head the board
at BP this year -
more
Rio warns of further cuts as global slump hits iron ore - Anglo-Australian
mining giant Rio Tinto warned of further cutbacks on Thursday, announcing
an 18 percent slump in fourth-quarter global iron ore output on the back
of slowing global demand. -
more
ThyssenKrupp bosses on trial over fire
deaths - Six ThyssenKrupp managers went on trial Thursday for the deaths
of seven employees in a 2007 accident at the German steelmaker’s plant
in Turin that highlighted Italy’s poor record on workplace safety. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.05/lb
lower in what indicator charts show has
been a morning of very choppy trading. Base metals are trading mostly lower
this morning, as the US Dollar continues to gain against the Euro (up 3/4
of 1% this morning so far). Crude oil is trading down 2-1/2% at $36.50/barrel.
Asian markets ended sharply lower overnight, and European markets are trading
slightly lower this morning. US futures show a lower opening for Wall Street
today as more bad news is published. This morning, MarketWatch reports
"First-time applications for state unemployment benefits rose 54,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 524,000 in the week ending Jan. 10, the Labor Department
said Thursday." Bank of America, who's CEO was interviewed on CBS' 60 Minutes
last year, and dismissed it ever needed the billions in TARP money the government
'forced' them to take... is now apparently asking the government for some
more. Steve Cheng, associate director at Shenyin Wanguo, told MarketWatch
the market was sliding again because, "People tried to talk themselves into
investing in the market, but the global economic situation is only getting
worse. Now they're starting to see the picture and can't fool themselves.
So, they've started selling all over again." VIX, the volatility index, managed
to close below 50 late yesterday, but its rise had not been seen since December.
Nickel Institute: The Nickel Advantage - Nickel in Stainless Steel -
pdf
here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals fell hard yesterday,
pulled lower by softer energy prices, weakening US equity markets, and poor
US macro readings. In the latter regard, December US retail sales fell by
2.7%, more than double the 1.2% expected, and extended the sales decline
to six consecutive months. Plunging gas prices had a major impact on the
figures, but even stripping out auto and gas sales, sales were off by 1.5%
from November levels. Out of Europe, Eurozone industrial production plunged
for the seventh month running in November. Far from moderating, the continued
deterioration in the global macro statistics is lending more credence to
the argument that another leg lower in most financial and commodity markets
could be coming. ... These concerns are still hovering over the markets today,
and contributing to the modest losses we are seeing in metals as of this
writing. Copper and ali are leading the group lower, off by $45 and $30,
respectively right now, and with the last of the index rebalancing over today,
we suspect prices could remain on the defensive for the balance of the week.
In terms of economic news, there will be a key vote on the second installment
of the TARP money later today. Should we get an unexpected no vote, the backlash
in the equity markets will be severe, and undoubtedly will spill over into
commodities. Conversely, a yes vote can stabilize the market somewhat, but
given the litany of other problems out there, we do not expect to see a major
“relief rally” to set in. ... We are currently at $10,680, down
$170, and quiet. Charts suggest an eventual test of support at $9300.(read
Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Prime-Tass) Customs: Russia’s nickel exports up 2% on year in Jan-Nov
(MNP) BHP Billiton says it has no plans to lay off workers at its Ravensthorpe
nickel operation.
(Rusmet) Chinese General Administration of Customs announced that China steel
exports volumes in 2008 has decreased in 2008 by 12%
(ACNB) Nickel sector weakens below Moving Average (MA), with 50-day MA trailing
its 200-day MA, crashes 6.7% January 15, 2009 16:00:00 AEST
(Dow Jones) Norilsk: Restarted Production At Tati Nickel in Botswana
Slight nickel price increase is expected
to dissipate soon- With stainless steel production down, nickel is about
to fall again -
more
Base metal earnings to take hit but future
prospects improving - The fact that commodity prices were hit hard in the
fourth quarter is no surprise to anyone. Molybdenum had it the worst, falling
53%. -
more
US bulk ferroalloys prices stable in quiet
trade - There were growing signs that most of the US bulk ferroalloys market
has found something of a floor after widespread and large falls in the fourth
quarter of 2008. -
more
$60bn mining projects under threat
- Many Australian mining groups' projects are in doubt due to factors such
as falling commodity prices and the global credit crunch. -
more
Baosteel To Start 2nd Round Of Iron Ore
Talks Next Week - China's Baosteel Group Corp., which represents domestic
steel mills in annual talks with key iron ore miners, said in a closed-door
meeting Thursday that it will start a second round of talks next week. -
more
BHP May Secure Lower-Than-Expected Iron-Ore Price Cut - BHP Billiton
Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group, may secure
a lower than expected decline in annual contract iron ore prices as demand
rebounds in China amid the start of annual price talks. -
more
Corus to pay half salaries to about
1,000 workers in UK - Facing liquidity crunch, Tata's owned European steel
major Corus has decided to pay half salary to about 1,000 of its employees
in four UK plants to save costs. -
more
Austria's Voestalpine to cut employee work hours - Austrian steel maker
Voestalpine AG will reduce working hours for about 10 percent of its 42,000
employees because of the global economic downturn, the company said Wednesday.
-
more
Salzgitter Orders May Rise as Client Stockpiles Wane - Salzgitter AG,
Germany’s second- biggest steelmaker, said orders may start to recover
as clients run stockpiles down to a “low point” in the second quarter.
-
more
As a weakening global economy continues to hit key steel-consuming industries
such as construction and automotive — denting international steel prices
— some traders in Egypt have reportedly lined up to import thousands
of tons of steel. -
more
Lakeside Steel Inc. of Welland, Ont., to lay off 61 employees - Lakeside
Steel Inc. says it is laying off up to 61 hourly employees at its manufacturing
site in Welland, Ont. -
more
Posco Says Chief Executive Lee to
Depart Next Month - Posco Chief Executive Officer Lee Ku Taek said
he will step down as the world’s second-biggest steelmaker by market
value needs new leadership to cope with the global recession. -
more
POSCO sees no price cut until iron ore talks over - South Korea's POSCO
(005490.KS) said on Thursday it had no plans to cut domestic steel prices
for the time being as it had yet to negotiate raw material purchase deals
for a new fiscal year starting in April. -
more
Historical article (2002) The
world nickel market could witness a supply deficit as early as 2003 owing
to limited new sources of supply, representatives from world nickel miners
said. -
more(interesting to note the mines that were going
to keep the world in balance over the last few years, are still not open
for business today)
Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks
- Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to
zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse
in trade since the world economy buckled in October. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Global Confidence Improves on Rate
Cuts, Fiscal Stimulus Plans // European Stocks Decline, Led by Deutsche
Bank, HSBC, Siemens // Asian Rate Cuts, Spending to Propel Recovery,
Economists Say // China Passes Germany to Become Third-Biggest Economy
// Asian Stocks Gain for First Time in Five Days; Fujitsu Climbs //
VIX Heads for Highest Close Since Dec. 16 as Bank Stocks Drop // U.S. Economy:
Retail Sales Decline for a Sixth Month // U.S. Stocks Drop on Retail Sales
Slump; Citigroup, Macy’s Fall
Apparently the only thing on the rise in the Western Hemisphere today, was
traders blood pressure, as the volatility index rose over the 50 mark once
again (chart here).
The Euro continues to slump against the Dollar, down .15%. Crude oil is trading
down off earlier lows and down by 2.25%, at $36.50/barrel. Precious
metals are trading lower, and base metals traded in London, ended lower.
Nickel fell hard early, floundered in mid afternoon trading, before
spiking in late trading, and recovering much of the days losses. Dow Jones
reports three month nickel ended the day at $4.90/lb
. Nickel inventories fell overnight,
by less than they gained yesterday. The Baltic Dry Index was up again today,
but the gains appear to be slowing. So far today, Wall Street is taking a
beating, with the Dow, S & P, and NASDAQ all down over 2%. Posted a few
updated price forecasts for nickel on our forecast page
(here)
. Credit Suisse and BMO forecast an average annual price at $5.70/lb and
$5.75/lb in individual reports. Dow Jones and Bloomberg both typically run
annual analyst forecast polls at the end/beginning of the year, and if they
published any numbers this year, we apparently missed them. We don't believe
either ran such a poll recently, but if anyone saw one in the last few weeks,
we would appreciate a link or a copy of the article to share with the other
readers. And speaking of possibly missing things, we missed this from November,
primarily because we don't pay much attention to neo-bears, anymore than
we do neo-bulls. Bull or bear, when they are out of their cage, you still
have to shovel what either left. We found this on a blog a few days ago,
and thought we would share it with you. Regardless of what you think of the
guy and his pontifications, notice "where" Fox News held this interview.
What he had to say could definitely drive a person to
drink(video
here).
Commodity/Economic Comments
(Reuters) The Dow-Jones-AIG (nyse: AIG - news - people ) index began its
annual reweighting on Jan 9, and runs until Jan 15. Re-weighting the S&P
GSCI index started on Jan 8 and ends on Wednesday.
Michael Widmer, analyst at BNP Paribas - ""The index buying in the market
is gradually fading out ... and fundamentally demand for metals is extremely
weak."
(Russian media) According to China Customs, Chinese exports of steel products
from January to December 2008 amounted to 59.23 million tonnes, which is
5.5% lower than in 2007 (62.65 million tons).
(Townhall) A Peruvian labor federation says 5,460 mining and steel workers
have lost their jobs since the start of November as sinking global mineral
prices hammer the mining sector and stall new investments.
China says to help steel firms by stepping
up consumption, flexible policies - China will step up consumption
of domestic steel products and also help steel firms stabilize their overseas
market share through flexible export-tariff policies, the State Council said.
- more
Weak near-term metals and mining outlook
will turn positive in H2/09-BMO - Physical gold has performed surprisingly
well in recent months, a trend which BMO Capital Markets analysts say could
stretch well into 2010. -
more
Steely minor metals to lead recovery -JPMorgan
- Minor metals used for steel production are in pole position to lead an
industrial metals recovery due to infrastructure projects in emerging markets,
a JPMorgan fund manager told Reuters. -
more
Mining Companies to Merge as Shares Tumble,
Jefferies Says - Mining companies will take advantage of a rout in stock
prices to buy smaller competitors this year, bolstering reserves and output,
Jefferies Group Inc. Managing Director Bill Hunter said. -
more
Recession expected to linger into mid-year
- Nearly 70 percent of distributors expect the current recession to last
at least six more months, according to an exclusive survey conducted by
Industrial Distribution in December. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.35/lb
lower. The US dollar is trading about
1/5 of 1% higher against the Euro this morning, and crude oil has so far
been trading between $38 and $39/barrel and is lower by 1.7%. Metals are
all mostly lower, but some just barely. In overnight trading, Asian markets
ended slightly higher, the first time it has gained in the last five. European
stocks continue to slide, with the Bloomberg European 500 Index down 2% at
the moment. US futures indicate a 100+ point drop at the opening, after a
dismal December retail sales report found seasonally adjusted retail sales
in the U.S. dropped 2.7% in December.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "We had quite an impressive
snap-back yesterday. The day's earlier declines were pared over the course
of the US session, leading to a firmer close by the end of the day in all
the metals, except for ali, which closed practically unchanged. Some fund
nibbling and traces of index buying contributed to the firmer close. However,
the gains are being reversed today, as selling hit the Asian markets, carrying
over into the LME session. The indecisive “up/down” trading days
we have been seeing in metals so far this week is indicative of the confused
picture that is confronting the metal markets on both the micro and macro
side of the equation. On the one hand, prices are attempting to stabilize
into a trading range given the steep production cuts and amidst hope that
massive stimulus programs being unlashed around the world kick-start demand.
On the other hand, LME stock levels continue to increase, telling us that
producers are still not slashing production fast enough to get ahead of imploding
demand. On the macro side, there is no evidence that things are getting better,
and if anything, they seem to be getting worse..... Out yesterday, we did
see the US trade deficit narrow sharply in November to $40.4 billion from
$56.7 billion in October. The good news here is that the drop in the deficit
will help limit the decline in fourth quarter growth and, with some
carry-through, may also boost first quarter growth as well. The bad news
is that the data clearly reflects a sharp contraction in global trade flows.
Part of this contraction could be attributed to lower commodity prices, but
the sharp drop in both imports and exports indicates that the weakness extends
beyond statistical explanations. ... We are currently at $10,675, down
$600, and struggling. Charts suggest an eventual test of support at
$9300.(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(AP) The Treasury Department says the federal government already has run
up a record deficit of $485.2-billion (U.S.) in just the first three months
of the current budget year.
(ACNB) Nickel sector weakens below Moving Average (MA), with 50-day MA trailing
its 200-day MA, drops 0.01% January 14, 2009 16:00:00 AEST
Japan NSSC may skip Q1 S.Africa ferrochrome
shipments - Japan's Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel Corp (NSSC)
may skip lifting January-March shipments of ferrochrome from South Africa
due to weak demand, a company official said on Wednesday. -
more
Thai Thainox declines comment on POSCO
bid talk - Thainox Stainless , Thailand's largest stainless steel producer,
declined comment on Wednesday on a newspaper report that it was in talks
to be acquired by South Korea's POSCO. -
more
Baosteel Closed Six Furnaces on Low Demand,
Shanghai News Says - Baosteel Group Corp. closed six blast furnaces since
October after demand fell, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing
unidentified officials at the company. -
more
60 pct of Chinese steel plants predict 30 mln t increase in output for 2009
- Statistics released by China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) Wednesday
show that about 60 percent of its member enterprises have mapped out their
2009 production plans, predicting an increase of 30 million tons in accumulative
output in the new year. -
more
(Reuters) China will strictly control total steelmaking capacity and allow
no new steel capacity expansion projects, the State Council, China's cabinet,
said. The State Council, which met to agree measures to support its carmakers
and steel mills, also said it would adopt a flexible tax policy on steel
exports to stabilise China's share of the global steel market. -
source
1000 mine jobs gone - The global economic
downturn has now cost 1000 mining jobs across the region in the past six
months, according to the Nationals MP John Cobb -
more
Top executives of MMC Norilsk Nickel to
visit Norilsk and Krasnoyarsk on January 14-16 - The management team of OJSC
MMC Norilsk Nickel (“MMC Norilsk Nickel” or “the Company”)
will visit the cities of Norilsk and Krasnoyarsk on January 14-16.-
more
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has met owners of the country's major metals
firms to discuss the impact of the financial crisis on the sector, metals
giant Norilsk Nickel said on Wednesday. "As far as I understand, certain
orders to the government were to be issued upon the meeting's results, but
their contents may be confidential," a Norilsk spokeswoman said, adding the
meeting took place on Tuesday but giving no further details. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Bernanke Says Stimulus May Be Inadequate,
Signals Asset Buying, Guarantees // Hedge Funds Lost $350 Billion Last Year,
Most on Record, Amid Market Rout // Asian Stocks Fall Most in a Month as
Commodity Producers, Automakers Slump // China's Money Supply, Bank Loans
Surge as Government Counters Export Slump // European Stocks Fall for Fifth
Day, Paced by Rio, Barclays, France Telecom // Gas Shipments Halted for Seventh
Day as Russia, Ukraine Blame One Another (Reuters) IMF chief-global
econ worsening, downbeat on forecast
We didn't have a complete about face from this morning, but we came mighty
close. After the government's announcement that the US trade deficit for
November was lower than expected, the US Dollar continues to trade higher
against the Euro, by a little over 1%. Crude oil, which was trading lower
this morning, is now trading higher, after Saudi Arabia announced plans to
cut production below its OPEC target. At press time, crude oil is over
$38/barrel, up 1-1/2%. While precious metals are trading mostly lower on
the higher dollar, base metals did a flip flop from this morning's red opening,
and ended mostly in the green. This was primarily due to traders making final
buys before index reweighting concludes, although after yesterday's drop,
technicals showed the nickel market deeply oversold. Indicator charts show
nickel started well below its closing yesterday, and after floundering for
a footing early, took off in afternoon trading and ended the session still
gaining. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$5.10/lb .
Sucden's day old chart shows the degree of yesterday's fall (chart
here). The Baltic
Dry Index grew for a sixth consecutive day, while nickel inventories did
the same, but not by much. Dow Jones, in an article earlier today, noted
"Some analysts said the gloom in the market had already been largely factored
into base metal prices so that will put a floor to losses. However, the poor
macroeconomic readings will put a cap to rallies, they said, so prices could
trade in a volatile sideways pattern in the coming weeks." The TED Spread
slipped under 100
(chart),
but the volatility index is on the rise again
(chart). Wall Street
appears to be on hold today, with the Dow jumping around yesterday's close.
Commodity/Economic Comments
(Dow Jones) U.S. nickel exports fell 9.0% in November from the previous month,
but was up 157.6% from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported
Tuesday
(more). ..... U.S. nickel imports fell 28.9% in November
from last month, and was down 23.8% from the previous year, the Commerce
Department reported Tuesday
(more).
(Reuters) The U.S. trade deficit shrank nearly 29 percent in November, the
largest amount in 12 years, as weak consumer demand and plummeting oil prices
caused imports to sink by a record amount...... Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist
with Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts - "'It is slim comfort that
the U.S. cut its demand for imports more rapidly than the rest of the world
cut its demand for U.S. exports. That might cushion the U.S. downturn a little,
but it is not a route to recovery.'
(XFN) China exported 59.23 mln tons of steel products in 2008, down 5.5 pct,
while imports declined 8.6 pct to 15.43 mln tons, the General Administration
of Customs said. Iron ore imports in 2008 totaled 443.56 mln tons, up 15.9
pct, while imports in December were 34.53 mln tons, little changed from 34.20
mln a year earlier.
(more)
(from WSJ article 1/109 "Steel Industry, in Slump, Looks to Federal
Stimulus") Then there are the wholesalers, known in the steel industry
as service centers. They buy in huge quantities from the mills, building
up inventories and selling to customers like a construction company that
needs I-beams to build a shopping center, or a manufacturer of auto parts
in need of steel tubing. Until recently, the inventories were bought on credit,
and the service centers constantly replenished these stockpiles as steel
was sold to end users. But now the service centers, unable to borrow money
easily and reluctant to borrow anyway in these hard times, have stopped buying
from the steel mills. They are selling off their inventories instead, raising
cash in the process. It is a tactic that annoys Mr. DiMicco, the Nucor chief,
no end. “They don’t want to be without cash when they go into whatever
the black hole is that is being created by the financial crisis,” he
said, and faulted the nation’s lenders for collecting billions in government
bailout money and then, in his view, refusing to lend it to the service centers
on reasonable terms. “Credit completely dried up,” Mr. DiMicco
said, “and it is still hard to get.”
Steel prices only temporarily depressed:
economist - Steel prices could post a 10% recovery in the short term, according
to A.S. Firoz, former chief economist for India's Ministry of Steel, speaking
Tuesday at Asia Business Forum's 4th Annual Steel conference in Singapore.
-
more
China's export of stainless steel kitchen
ware in November 2008 - China exported 24,644 tons of stainless steel kitchen
ware valued at 130.663 million US dollars in November 2008. The export in
January-November reached 2,810,190 tons valued at 1,420.077 million US dollars,
down 6.0 percent and 2.1 percent respectively year on year. -
more
Many photo's of architectural use of stainless
steel - here and many
more photo's
here
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.06/lb
lower, but recovering from earlier losses.
All other metals, across the board, are trading lower. US dollar is trading
nearly a full 1% higher against the Euro this morning, and crude oil is under
$37/barrel, down 1.1/2%. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended slightly
lower. European markets are much lower today, while US futures show another
negative opening.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals continued to lose
ground yesterday, as opening gains in Shanghai receded by the time London
markets opened, with the heavier selling setting in after US trading commenced.
... With respect to the current session, we are seeing a similar pattern
to what we saw yesterday. Early gains in Shanghai faded early on, eventually
leading to a limit-down session, and we are now looking at modest losses
in LME markets. ... We are currently at $10,423, down $302, and holding up
relatively well after the steep selloffs seen over the past two sessions.
Charts suggest an eventual test of support at $9300. (read Ed Meir's
complete morning base metals report
here)
Simon Toyne, analyst with Numis Securities - "We believe it is optimistic
to expect supply discipline to maintain prices above the cost structure in
oversupplied markets."
(Xinhua) China Dec iron ore import up 0.96 pct on year, vs 19 pct, customs
(Yieh) Bolstered by the soaring LME nickel price, Taiwan's Yieh United Steel
Corp. (Yusco) decided to raise its domestic price for 300 series stainless
steel by NT$3,000~6,000/ton for January. Yusco has also increased its export
prices by US$100~200/ton.
(Yieh) Yieh is reporting that due to European anti dumping tariff's, 2 out
of 3 fastener producers in China has either shut down, or is danger of closure.
(WSJ) China imported 34.53 million metric tons of iron ore in December, up
6.2% on a month-to-month basis and 0.96% year-to-year, preliminary data provided
Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs showed. Iron-ore imports
rose 15.9% in 2008 to 443.56 million tons.
(AC) Nickel sector weakens below Moving Average (MA), with 50-day MA trailing
its 200-day MA, plummets 3.3%
(JMB) Japanese major steel makers will start iron ore price negotiation in
the week with Australian and Brazilian miners for fiscal 2009 starting April.
China’s money supply and loans jumped more than economists estimated
in December after the government widened efforts to insulate the economy
from a collapse in export demand. -
more
Exports fell two months in a row for the first time in a decade, reflecting
the impact of the global financial crisis on the "workshop of the world".-
more
Economists slashed forecasts for U.S. growth in 2009 and projected Federal
Reserve policy makers won’t be able to start raising interest rates
until 2010, according to a monthly Bloomberg News survey. -
more
ASA Says Ferrochrome Price Talks
Delayed as Demand Weakens - ASA Metals, the Chinese venture that produces
ferrochrome in South Africa, said talks to set first- quarter prices will
start later than normal as demand sags. -
more
China Said to Start Iron Ore Talks With
Rio Tinto - Baosteel Group Corp., China’s biggest steelmaker, started
annual iron ore contract talks with Rio Tinto Group yesterday amid expectations
prices may plunge, two company executives said. -
more
China domestic steelmaking raw material markets continue recovery - The prices
of Chinese steelmaking raw materials, including iron ore, scrap, and coke,
have climbed up slightly on stronger downstream demand, industry sources
said. -
more
CNCEC inks a $440m nickel contract in
Turkey - Tianchen, a subsidiary of China National Chemical Engineering Co
(CNCEC), has signed a $440 million Design-Build contract with the UK-based
European Nickel PLC on a nickel project in Turkey. -
more
Asian steel producers face competition,
may move to protectionism - Asia's steel industry faces challenges for producers
in the coming years, A.S. Firoz, chief economist for India's Ministry of
Steel, said Tuesday at Asia Business Forum's 4th Annual Steel conference
in Singapore. -
more
Posco Says January Earnings May Be
Worst in History - Posco, Asia’s third-largest steelmaker, said
January earnings will probably be the worst in its history after it cut output
and demand fell because of the global recession. -
more
POSCO CEO says may extend output cut until March- South Korea's POSCO
(005490.KS), the world's No. 4 steelmaker, may have to continue its production
cut through the current quarter, because it was unsure about a recovery in
steel prices, its chief executive said on Monday.
more
MLC to appeal against nickel export
licence conditions - South-west Greens' MLC Paul Llewellyn plans to lodge
an appeal against the conditions of the Esperance Port Authority's licence
to export bulk nickel. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Wal-Mart Faces ‘Challenging’
First Half, Scott Says // Asian Stocks Drop, Led by Commodity Producers;
Rio Tinto Falls // China Risks Missing 8% Growth Target, Officials
Say // India’s Industrial Production Unexpectedly Increases // European
Stocks Drop for Fourth Day; STMicroelectronics Falls // Euro Falls
to One-Month Low on ECB Rate Outlook, Spain’s Rating // U.S. Stocks
Retreat on Earnings Concern; Alcoa, Conoco Decline // Brazilian Stocks Drop
on Lower Growth Prospects, Metals Slide
The Euro is fighting its way back from earlier losses against the US Dollar,
but is still trading about 1/10 of 1% lower. Crude oil continues to slide,
trading at its day lows, down 7% at under $38/barrel. Platinum remains the
only metal to gain today, with the rest of the precious and base metals ending
lower. In nickel's case, had it not been for an afternoon of calmer buying,
the day would have ended dramatically lower on heavy mornig selling. Indicator
charts reflect a swing of nearly $1500/tonne today from its start to daily
low point. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$4.86/lb . Nickel
inventories gained slightly overnight, while the Baltic Dry Index did the
same. CRU forecast worldwide stainless steel production to fall again this
year, after falling for the two years prior. The Macquarie Group, in a report
today, forecast stainless-steel production for 2009 to be 24% lower than
it estimated it would be in early 2008. Macquarie also forecast nickel production
to fall 19% this year. Eramet announced it would produce 50,000 tonnes of
nickel thru its Donaimbo smelter on New Caledonia this year, about what it
did this year.
Copper slips 6 pct, China purchase
doubts weigh - Nickel sheds 15 percent to track copper -
more
Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries Market report -
pdf here
AIIS December 2008 Steel Market Import Survey -
doc here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Barclays Capital - "Nickel demand remains weak, especially stemming from
the key stainless steel end-use sector and is likely to continue to depress
prices despite the slew of initiated output cuts by producers."
Robin Bhar, metals analyst at Calyon Credit Agricole CIB - "Nickel was bid
on DJ-AIG index buying, along with copper ... Now the focus is on the dire
outlook for demand. ....We will be lucky to get any growth at all in stainless
steel production(in 2009)."
ASA says clients defer Q1 ferrochrome
shipments - Some clients of South Africa's ASA Metals are deferring shipments
of ferrochrome amid weak demand for stainless steel, a top official said
on Monday. -
more
Steel price trend in 2009 early warning
report (translated) - Shinkansen Editor's Note: In this paper, the author
the exclusive authorized Shinkansen published works, the media and website
reproduced the premise of the new Route and the written authorization of
the author, and indicate the source for the West of the Shinkansen - translated
version here
Western Areas lifts nickel resource
estimate - Nickel miner Western Areas says the mineral resource at its Spotted
Quoll has more than doubled, eclipsing the size of the company's flagship
Flying Fox mine. -
more
OZ Minerals anxiously waits for lifeline loan - Troubled OZ Minerals is still
waiting on a financial lifeline needed to keep its mines open, after shedding
nearly $60 million in one week over Christmas. -
more
Environment Watch: The intricate state
of the overlapping mining area in Morowali - Cashew farmers, village leaders,
a mining company and a governor have all become embroiled in a land and community
dispute in Central Sulawesi, a classic study in how not to balance community
needs and capital ventures. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 10:30 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.69/lb
lower. All metals except platinum are
trading lower today, as is crude oil and the Euro against the Dollar. Asian
markets closed lower overnight, with European markets set to close lower.
Wall Street is also lower this morning. Since relocating in late December,
we are having difficulties finding "reliable" internet service. Thanks to
Nuvox, we apologize for the late update.
Stainless Steel Production Will Fall for
Third Year, CRU Says - Stainless-steel production will fall for a third year
in 2009 as steel mills use up stockpiles and demand weakens, according to
London-based research company CRU. -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "We had a bizarrely strong
performance in metals on Friday, as the sector was practically the only one
that showed a gain compared to other markets. ... So how can one explain
Friday's upbeat performance? We suspect that the buying we saw most likely
resulted from continued index fund buying. With this kind of activity expected
to be pretty much over by the end of the current week, metals will be
hard-pressed to find another source of buying support to replace it. In fact,
right now, we are now sharply lower across the board despite another surge
in Shanghai trading overnight, with practically all of Friday's gains given
back-- and in some cases, more. ... We are currently at $10,525, down
$1650, with nickel being among the bigger downside casualties today. Charts
suggest an eventual test of support at $9300. (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
(Bloomberg) China - Domestic steel prices have rebounded 43 percent to 4,073
yuan a metric ton from Nov. 13 after tumbling 52 percent from a record high
of 5,957 yuan on June 5, according to the Beijing Antaike Information Development
Co.
(Yieh) Bolstered by the soaring LME nickel price, Taiwan's Yieh United Steel
Corp. (Yusco) decided to raise its domestic price for 300 series stainless
steel by NT$3,000/ton for January.
(Asia Pulse) Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO), the world's second largest iron ore
producer, has postponed a $A3 billion ($US2.1 billion) expansion to its Corumba
iron ore mine in Brazil amid the global economic downturn.
Commodity Funds Could Take Another Scary Ride -
more
Eramet: 2009 Nickel Output Target
50,000 Tons; Lack Of Demand - French mining and metals group Eramet S.A.
Monday said it will cut output at its Doniambo nickel smelter in New Caledonia
to 50,000 metric tons this year due to poor demand. -
more
Interview: India's Stainless Steel Exports
To Slow On Year - India is expected to see a 20%-25% drop in exports of flat
and long stainless steel products in the fiscal year to March 31, 2009 due
to rising competition and slowing consumption, according to a top industry
official. -
more
Steel imports fall in Apr-Dec; case for import duty weakens - Imports of
steel during the first nine months (April-December) of 2008-09 have fallen
by 14 per cent to 4.8 million tonnes, a development that could weaken the
industry's demand for increasing import duty. -
more
Nippon Steel could cut output further in
downturn - Nippon Steel Corp, the world's second-biggest steel maker, is
likely to reduce output further as it struggles with weak demand and pressures
for price cuts from battered auto makers in the downturn. -
more
POSCO sees January steel sales down
27 pct - South Korea's POSCO, the world's No. 4 steelmaker, expects its January
steel sales to fall by around 27 percent to 1.9 million tonnes, hit by faltering
demand, its chief financial officer said on Tuesday. -
more
Chinese steel mills seek payback over iron
ore prices - Chinese steel mills are about to turn the tables on Australia
by demanding a 40 per cent price cut in the price of iron ore shipped from
the Pilbara. -
more
Chinese Government Raises Value-Added Tax On Imports Of Raw Materials For
Ferro-Alloys = Raised To 17%, Effective From 1st January 2009 -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Employers in U.S. Cut 524,000 Jobs
Last Month; 2008 Losses Most Since 1945 // Stocks in U.S. Decline on Concern
Job Losses Signal Recession Is Worsening // Asian Stocks Fall, Set for Weekly
Decline, as Demand Slumps; Nissan Drops // Stocks in Europe Decline; Deutsche
Postbank, Infineon, Natixis Shares Drop // Russian Natural-Gas Flows Still
Halted Amid Delays in EU Monitoring Accord
The US dollar has slipped further, courtesy of job loss figures released
by the Fed today; now trading down by nearly 1-3/4%. Crude oil has slipped
below $40/barrel and is down over 6%. It still has room before it gets back
down to its Dec 19th intraday low of $32.40. Base metals ended solidly
higher, courtesy the faltering dollar. Indicator charts reflect some indecision
on nickel traders today, with the market up at our morning post, then slumped
back into the red on news of the US employment figures, then went green as
the dollar fell. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day and first
full week of the new year at $5.51/lb
. For those who care, nickel is holding on
to a tenuous lead ($100/tonne) over tin for the most expensive base metal
traded on the London Metal Exchange, after having lost that distinction for
some of 2008. Nickel inventories stored in LME warehouses slid again overnight,
possibly reflecting a lack of shipments made during the holiday season. This
happened at the beginning of last year and inventories fell till the middle
of January. The Baltic Dry Index gained again, reflecting a possible uptick,
however slight, in global raw material shipments. Sucden's day old chart
shows nickel's downturn thru yesterday
(here). The TED Spread
continues to slip, down to 1.19, and the volatility index has crept back
up into the 40 range, after falling into the high 30 range last week.
For those of you who bought
a house you could afford, read the contract you were signing, and have been
making your mortgage payments on time, and have watched the value of that
home fall for the last few years, there is a new word that you are going
to be hearing a lot of in the coming weeks. "Mortgage modification". Even
the banks, you know, the guys that have gotten the biggest chunk of the
government's (TARP money) economic stimulus package to date, are crying "foul"
- ("Bank group slams lawmaker mortgage deal with Citi" -
more) And
one other point. Yesterday we learned that the porn industry was going to
ask the Fed's for $5 billion dollars in bail-out money. This is a distressing
move in our opinion, because the porn industry has always been about doing
themselves, but never screwing the taxpayer!! Now they have gone and joined
all the other ho's. Oh well, have a restful and safe weekend and stay tuned
for exciting clips from our newest production "Debbie Does Wall Street before
Wall Street Does Debbie"!!
Commodity/Economic Comments
Bits and pieces from this week's China media sources - Molybdenum concentrate
prices rebound slightly as large mills make purchases. Ferrochrome prices
are stable, and many plants are running under capacity with little activity
expected before the Spring Festival. India has cut its export price
on friable chrome ore from $715 per tonne to $280 per tonne fob. Western-grade
ferro-molybdenum prices rose slightly this week on buying interest. Nickel
market is stabile with any potential buyers taking a wait and see attitude.
(Dow Jones) European steelmakers Friday welcomed the European Commission's
decision to put temporary duties on steel wire rods imported from China and
Moldova, while questioning why the commission opposed duties on imports from
Turkey.
Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse -
more
Billionaire steel tycoon Wilbur Ross in a recent interview with CNNMoney.com.
- "They count as employed someone who used to have a high-paid manufacturing
job, and now is working at a Wal-Mart or a Wendy's."
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com - "The country is losing
half a million jobs in a month, and if the government doesn't act quickly,
there's no reason that wouldn't intensify."
Millionaires Say Advisers Failed Them in Crisis, Survey Shows -
more
Paulson Bailout Didn’t Give Taxpayers What Goldman Gave Buffett -
more
(MarketWatch) The U.S. economic recession is set to deepen in the first half
of the year, but could begin to show signs of improvement later in the year,
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said in a speech late
Thursday.
Adam Drewnowski, the director of the Nutrition Sciences Program at the University
of Washington in Seattle - "Obesity is a toxic result of a failing economic
environment."
China Mining - Stainless mills may raise output - Some domestic mills were
considering increasing stainless output from early January in view of a stable
LME nickel price and the soaring bulk commodity prices such as crude oil.
Tisco will continue to arrange production according to orders in January
and Baosteel plans to raise output modestly.
China industry association suggests reserving
more metals - China Nonferrous Metals Association (CNMA) suggests the government
purchase copper, zinc and nickel for reserve so as to rally the domestic
nonferrous metals market and help related enterprises jolt out of operating
difficulties. - more
US steelmakers support Obama infrastructure
stimulus program - US steelmakers are urging support of a multi-billion dollar
infrastructure investment program proposed by President-elect Obama and
Washington congressional leaders. -
more
'Buy American' Steel Clause Will Hurt U.S. - The U.S. steel industry wants
any government stimulus package to require the purchase of American-made
steel, a clause The Wall Street Journal warns risks a damaging long-term
trade war and end up costing American taxpayers too much money. -
more
Who Participates in Commodities Markets?
- There are two basic types of participants in commodities markets–hedgers
and speculators. Hedgers seek to minimize and manage price risk, while
speculators take on risk in the hope of making a profit. -
more
Brazil's mining giant suspends collective
vacations - Brazil's mining giant Vale announced on Thursday the suspension
of the collective vacations for 450 employees from a mine in Fabrica Nova
in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. -
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:45 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.07/lb
higher this morning, and the market has
bounced out of the red within the last half hour. Other metals are mixed
with industrial mostly higher. The US Dollar is trading slightly lower against
the Euro, down .03% at publishing time. Crude oil is down 3%, and trading
around $41/barrel. Asian markets ended lower overnight, while European markets
are slightly higher. US futures is showing a slightly lower opening, but
may turn around. According to a Fed report this morning, 524,000 US jobs
were lost in December, about what was expected, but far better than many
had feared after an earlier report this week by ADP. This puts the unemployment
rate at 7.2%, the highest in 16 years.
Crisis hits nickel demand hardest -
NICKEL has been hit hard, with a long list of miners shutting down production
in 2008 as prices probe record lows. -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals were weaker again on
Thursday, with nickel, zinc, and copper leading the group lower, although
lead bucked the trend, and closed higher. ... The real test for markets comes
later today, when nonfarm payroll numbers are released. Expectations are
calling for a 500,000-job decline. However, the lousy ADP report out Wednesday
and relatively high weekly initial claims readings we have been seeing of
late, suggest the number could come in on the higher side. As a result, we
would remain cautious about going long metals at this point despite the bounce
we are seeing right now. We don’t see much to account for the market’s
steadier tone at present, as the dollar is practically unchanged. Shanghai
markets were buoyant overnight and contributed to a stronger LME opening
on hopes of further production cutbacks being in the pipeline. .. We are
currently at $11,300, down $250, and so far trading within a very non-eventful
$500/MT trading range so far today.(read Ed Meir's complete morning base
metals report
here)
Calyon metals analyst Robin Bhar - ""We've seen this before - people front-run
the index re-weighting, but once they have made some profits they'll be looking
to dump these positions."
Morgan Stanley - "We believe depressed stainless steel production rates will
persist at least until 3Q 2009, when we forecast the start of a restocking
cycle in stainless steel."
Lloyds List - Vale, the world’s largest iron ore exporter, has signed
a $410m deal to build a 300,000-tonne iron ore terminal in Rizhao port, one
of the biggest iron ore import ports in China.
METALS INSIDER: Will stimulus plans boost copper? -
more
(SBB) China's stainless output and usage dropped 8% last year
(Yieh) Japan’s exports of stainless steel scrap dropped to 72,836 tons
in November of 2008, down by 33.3 percent from October at 109,239 tons and
down by 25.8 percent compared to the same period of 2007.
China Daily - Economist: China's economic recovery to 'start in H2'
India - Stainless steel imports decline by about 70 per cent in Dec -
The country's stainless steel imports dipped by 70% to 6,000 tonnes in December,
weakening the industry's demand for raising import duty on the alloy. -
more
Miners see light at end of tunnel - Investors charged in to mining equities
this week before retreating in the face of old threats, but they left a hint
of optimism in a sector that some view as undervalued after a dramatic sell-off
in the fourth quarter of 2008. -
more
Searching for a Bottom in Industrial Commodities -
more
Return of Confidence, and Commodity Inflation in 2009 -
more
* 2008 was a tumultuous year for nickel
- What a difference a year makes. A year ago, few expected that, by the end
of 2008, nickel prices would have slumped and hundreds of workers in the
mining industry would have lost their jobs. -
more
Nippon Steel Said to Consider Deeper Output
Cuts Amid Recession - Nippon Steel Corp., the world’s second-largest
maker, may double its planned production cuts by closing a blast furnace
for maintenance as the global recession damps demand. -
more
India investigates stainless-steel exporters
- In November last year, India began an anti-dumping investigation on imported,
cold rolled, flat stainless steel originating in or exported from several
countries, including Thailand. India's concern is that its domestic companies
will suffer because of cheaper imported stainless steel flooding its market.
-
more
Indonesia to Need Letter of Credit
for Commodity Sale - Indonesia, rich in metals including tin, nickel,
copper and gold, will insist on letters of credit for exports of key commodities
to cover risk of payment defaults as the global recession deepens. -
more
China mills seek 40 pct cut in iron
ore prices - Chinese steel firms on Friday joined Japanese counterparts
in demanding price cuts of around 40 percent for term iron in 2009, as mills
look to cut costs amid faltering demand and huge cutbacks in output. -
more
AK Steel starts salaried employee layoff
- AK Steel said on Thursday it was implementing a salaried workforce layoff
plan due to the continuing economic downturn. -
more
African Eagle limits ops to Tanzania
nickel project - Minerals explorer African Eagle Resources Plc said on Friday
it would restrict its active operations to the Dutwa nickel project in Tanzania
and seek partners for some other projects due to funding issues. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Stocks in U.S. Decline as Retailers
Cut Forecasts; Wal-Mart Shares Tumble // Fixed 30-Year Mortgages Fall to
5.01%, Lowest Since 1971, Freddie Mac Says // No Recovery for Real Estate
as Speculators Dominate Increase in Purchases // Asian Stocks Decline, Wiping
Out 2009 Advance; Lenovo, BHP Billiton Slump // Dollar Falls Before Report
Forecast to Show Jobless Rate at 16-Year High // Stocks Drop in Europe, Led
by Mining Companies, Retailers; BHP, Rio Slump // European Confidence Drops
to Record; Unemployment Rises to Two-Year High
US Dollar has slumped during the day, trading down nearly 3/4 of 1% against
the Euro. Crude oil is down nearly 2-1/2%, off earlier lows and trading around
$42/barrel. Metals ended mixed with some gainers and some losers. And at
least one big loser, primarily nickel. Indicator charts show nickel never
stood a chance today, with a large decline in morning trading, a quiet afternoon,
and a late sell off and rebound in kerb trading. Dow Jones reports three
month nickel ended the day at $5.23/lb
. Unlike yesterday, the session ended
on a slight rebound, implying that tomorrow could go either way. Sucden's
day old chart
(here) gave analyst Nimit Khamar's comments as a close
below 12,350 would indicate a further loss to 11,700/tonne. With nickel ending
at $11,540, the technicals suggest a further drop, although the RSI and SStoch
showed today's market opened deeply oversold, and thus could open even more
so tomorrow. We are not experts on reading technical charts, but considering
the fundamentals of nickel are in the toilet these days, this sporadic bout
of speculation seems to even make trying to forecast the charts a fools journey.
In Europe the lack of natural gas from Russia is causing problems for steel
mills already suffering from the economic slowdown. The Baltic Dry Index
had another positive day, while nickel inventories in LME warehouses, slipped
again. In US news, the porn industry intends to ask for a $5 billion federal
stimulus bail-out, Governor Sarah Palin's is blaming everyone for her defeat
in the Presidential elections
(her), Joe the ex-plumber's assistant is now a reporter
in Israel for a conservative website, and a New York doctor is suing his
ex-wife for a kidney he donated to her. He wants the kidney back - or $1.5
million dollars.
METALS-Copper eases, nickel down 7
pct as index re-jig starts - Copper and other metals fell on Thursday, with
nickel down almost 7 percent, as worries about the global economy intensified
and players took profits as the rebalancing of commodity indices started.
-
more
(Morgan Stanley) "We believe depressed stainless steel production rates will
persist at least until 3Q 2009, when we forecast the start of a restocking
cycle in stainless steel.
Some steelmakers may be stocking up
moly, ferromoly: Asia traders - A handful of steelmakers in Asia appeared
to have started stocking up molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum in the first
week of January, in anticipation of higher prices, traders in South Korea
and Japan said Thursday. -
more
Report: China scraps steel reserve plan
- China has canceled its proposal to set up a steel stockpile, one of the
planned major measures to help steel makers overcome current difficulties,
the Wall Street Journal has reported. -
more
China's iron ore consumption to reach 1.3 billion mt in 2020 - China's annual
iron ore (grading 63-66% Fe) consumption is expected to reach 1.3 billion
mt, and iron ore imports will represent around 40% of the country's needs
in 2020, according to the 2008-2015 development plan for mineral resources
issued Thursday by China's Ministry of Land and Resources.
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.34/lb
lower. The Dollar and Euro are playing
tug of war this morning, with no clear trend set. At the moment they are
fairly even, with the Euro ever so slightly ahead on news that the Bank of
England cut their benchmark interest rate to 1.5%, the lowest since the central
bank was founded in 1694. Crude oil continues to fall, down over 2% and trading
in the upper $41/barrel level. Metals are mostly lower with palladium, platinum,
and lead slightly in the green at the moment. Nickel is taking another bath,
as all the recent hype about index rebalancing potentially helping nickel
has lost some of its punch. In overnight trading, Asian markets took a beating,
with the S&P Asia 50 index down nearly 5%. European is having its second
down day so far, with the Bloomberg European 500 down nearly 2%. US futures
show another hard opening for Wall Street, with the DJIA Index down 137 points
on news that retail powerhouse and stock holder favorite Wal-Mart has scaled
back earnings expectations, citing a worse-than-expected December performance.
Wal-Mart has a track record of doing well when others are faltering, so when
Wal-Mart announces lower sales, the ripple is felt throughout the market.
LME nickel falls 5 pct on baleful economy
outlook - London Metal Exchange nickel futures fell more than 5 percent on
Thursday as a New Year rally gave up ground to resurfacing pessimism about
the world economy. -
more
Looking back at ’08, and positioning for ‘09 -
pdf here
Commodity/Economic Comments
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metals staged a reversal yesterday,
but the declines were uneven, suggesting that index rebalancing is still
at play. Nevertheless, after several days of steady gains, the reversal was
significant, but not particularly surprising, as we cautioned in yesterday's
commentary that the market had perhaps gotten ahead of itself given the
prevailing macro picture. ... The less-than-inspiring global macro
backdrop cannot be emphasized enough at this stage-- with most of the world
either at, or in, recession, and with LME stocks continuing to rise, (telling
us that producers are still "behind the curve" in terms of cutbacks), the
case for a sustainable rally in metals looks unpersuasive. Of course, from
time to time, markets will see sharp bounces driven by such factors as index
rebalancing, dollar weakness, or technical moves that may look impressive,
but turn out to be equally deceptive. Some of these elements were on display
in the post-Christmas bounce in metals, but having done quite a bit on the
upside already, we suspect prices will take something of a breather, at least
over the short-term. ... We are currently at $11,700, down $600; an attempt
to break past $13,500 seems to have failed, and we are perhaps going to turn
lower inside the range." (read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals
report
here)
(ACNB) Nickel sector weakens below Moving Average (MA), with 50-day MA trailing
its 200-day MA, crashes 6.3% January 08, 2009 16:00:00 AEST
(Yieh) Due to sluggish demand, India's chrome ore export price is likely
to drop by 50 percent to FOB US$300-400/ton, at the same time, the association
of Federal Indian Minerals requests the government to cancel the chrome ore
export tax.
(JMB) Japanese major 5 steel makers including Nippon Steel and JFE Steel
are expected to expand the production cut up to 10 million tonnes in the
second half year to March 2009 from the first half year to meet the lower
demand and to reduce overstock.
(Interfax) China has asked the world's top three iron ore miners to base
this year's annual iron ore benchmark price negotiations on 2007's agreed
price level, a senior official with the China Iron and Steel Association
(CISA) told Interfax on Jan. 7.
Slovak firms curb output due to gas supply cuts -
more
LME's "odd couple" stand out in the gloom
- The second half of 2008 brought with it a total capitulation of industrial
metal prices. Gains accumulated over the preceding three-year bull rally
were surrendered in as many months. -
more
Stainless steel imports decline by about
70% in Dec - The country’s stainless steel imports dipped by 70% to
6,000 tonnes in December, weakening the industry’s demand for raising
import duty on the alloy. -
more
No sign of recovery in US ferroalloys
at start of New Year - Hopes that the start of a new year would bring about
a recovery in bulk ferroalloy prices in the US market were quickly dashed,
as a consumer purchase of high-carbon ferrochrome this week for first quarter
delivery quickly helped knock more than 10 cents/lb off the spot market.
-
more
Metals Prices to Be Lower in 2009 on Weak
Demand, Goldman Says - Metal and coal prices are expected to average
“considerably lower” in 2009 as demand plunges in a global recession
and producers can’t cut supply fast enough, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty
said. -
more
BofA-Merrill Lynch resume mining/metals coverage in bearish tone - Bank of
America/Merrill Lynch Research resumed its coverage this week of metals and
mining equities in the US market "with a negative fundamental bias," according
to a January 5 report shared with Platts Wednesday. -
more
New Caledonia’s northern nickel
project has new investors - One of New Caledonia’s world class nickel
mining project, Koniambo, in the North of the main island of New Caledonia,
has secured a new string of investments, less than three months after other
banks had decided to pullout, citing the global financial crisis. -
more
China Seeks Early Ore Accord Before Demand
Rises, Westpac Says - Chinese steel mills want an early conclusion of iron
ore contract price talks with suppliers such as Rio Tinto Group before demand
increases because of a government- driven expansion program, said Westpac
Banking Corp. -
more
China industry body urges state to buy metals - China's state reserves
should buy copper, zinc and nickel, to help metals producers hit hard by
the economic slowdown, the China Nonferrous Metals Association has proposed
to the central government, state media said on Thursday. -
more
Market Tendency On Imports Of Ferro-Alloys
At 26th December 2008 = How To Develop Prices Of Ferro-Alloys In Spring 2009
Is In A Maze -
more
Rio Cutting Kestrel Coal Output 15%
on Reduced Demand - Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third- largest
mining company, will reduce output from its Kestrel coal mine in Australia
by 15 percent because of reduced demand -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Stocks in U.S. Drop as Job Losses More
Than Estimated; Alcoa Shares Slide // Asia Stocks Rise on Speculation U.S.
Spending Will Boost Growth; Rio Jumps // Asian Economies to Have V-Shaped
Rebound After `Apocalypse,' BNP Predicts // European Stocks Fall for First
Time in Seven Days; Rio Tinto, ASML Decline // Russian Gas Shipments to Europe
Through Ukraine Halted in Freezing Weather // Industrial Companies Prepare
for Gas Shortages Amid Russian Supply Dispute (Reuters) Budget deficit to
hit $1.2 trillion (MarketWatch) 'We're seeing enormous layoffs take place
now that might have been spread out over the next six or nine months in previous
downturns.' - Joel Naroff, TD Commerce Bank
The US Dollar continues to falter against the Euro, trading lower by 1-1/4%,
and off session lows. Crude oil is slumping, down nearly 9% to under $45/barrel.
Precious metals are trading mixed, while base metals ended mostly lower.
While most had an uneventful day, tin and nickel got whacked as the
index rally fizzled. In a market wrap-up today, Dow Jones noted "The new
year's rally in base metals finally lost some steam Wednesday as fundamentals
began to reassert themselves, analysts and traders said. Indicator charts
show nickel spent a day stair stepping down, and at teh days end, showed
no signs of a reversal. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day
at $5.58/lb .
ADP unemployment numbers out of the US today were brutal, and served as a
reminder to world markets that the Obama stimulus package, when it arrives,
will take many months to have any positive effects. In the mean time, as
the Fed minutes released yesterday noted, things are going to get worse before
they get better. The Fed will release their official December employment
report on Friday, and U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said on Monday that
he expected the unemployment figures to be "sobering". Besides this
report, we will see reports on chain store sales, consumer credit, and wholesale
trade over the next few days. The BDI sparked some interest by rising by
14 points overnight, and LME nickel inventories gained a little; nearly enough
to offset yesterday's loss.
Commodity/Economic Comments
Barclays Capital - ".. recent macro data coming in to the downside and LME
stocks still rising we see little reason for price strength to be sustained."
Standard Bank metals analyst Leon Westgate - "I think basically the rally's
run out of momentum...Various metals hit technical resistances and have fallen."
(Marketwatch) Japan's top steel maker, Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless
Steel Corp., said Wednesday it would suspend some thin-sheet production lines
for at least six months, as demand from homebuilders and electronics makers
drops, the Nikkei newspaper reported. NSSC -- a joint venture between Nippon
Steel Corp. said the closures would begin in February and could continue
longer than six months if demand remains weak, according to the report.
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.23/lb
lower. Euro is rebounding against the
US Dollar today, trading 1-1/2% higher. Crude oil is currently down, trading
in the $48/barrel level, after reaching $49 earlier. Metals are mostly higher,
with gold, silver and nickel all down at the moment. In overnight trading,
Asian markets ended mostly softer, as is European trading today. US futures
show Wall Street will open in a foul mood, after Market Watch reports "U.S.
private-sector firms shed 693,000 jobs in December, far worse than expected,
according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday." The reason for
nickel's sudden rise in price over the past few days, has been credited to
index rebalancing that is set to happen in a few weeks. It is interesting
to note in this article that it is estimated nickel will make up a
smaller" part of the index, not larger as traders appear to be betting on.
Article
here If this index forecast pans out, we could
potentially see some very unhappy traders in London, and the price of nickel
could fall as fast as it has risen.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices continued to push
higher yesterday, but apart from index rebalancing, which apparently could
last until the middle of this month, we see little else that can explain
the sharp advances. We have been friendly towards metals at the start of
the week, but the speed of the ascent has been surprising, and at this point,
we would rather not chase the rallies much further. In our view, index
rebalancing is not going to be a viable substitute for end-user metal demand,
which is still flat on its back, and neither will it make a dent in rising
LME stock levels, which were up again today, particularly for copper (by
7800 tons), and ali, (by just over 13,000 tons). ... We are currently at
$12,900, down $350; a push to just under $14,000 could still be in the cards,
but the complex seems to have trouble pushing beyond $13,500 for the moment,
already tested twice this week." (read Ed Meir's complete morning
base metals report
here)
(Yieh) India's stainless steel mill, Jindal Stainless, decided to slow all
its investments worldwide. The projects including a 2.6 million-ton ferro-nickel
plant in Indonesia and a 60,000-tonne ferro- chrome unit in Vietnam.
(SBB) US stainless imports dive in December; off 10% for the year
(JMD) NSSC - To shut down equipment at Hikari and Kashima/ 2 cold rolling
mills and 2 annealing lines, for half a year/ Prepared for 'prolonged significant
production cutback'
ThyssenKrupp steel unit sees orders rebound
- paper - German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp expects incoming orders to rebound
somewhat at the beginning of 2009, the finance chief of the group's main
steel unit Peter Urban was quoted as saying by daily Handelsblatt. -
more
Canadian base metal miners enjoy New Year
rally - Several Canadian base metal miners hit multi-month highs on the Toronto
Stock Exchange on Tuesday, as stronger prices and improving expectations
for steel demand helped revived some hope for a sustained rebound in the
hard-hit sector. -
more
Nickel Industry Is Watching Results
Of New Mining Law In Indonesia = COW For Investments By Foreign Enterprises
Is Revoked And Shifted To Mining Permission -
more
India's iron ore exports in early December
fall - India's iron ore exports in the first half of December fell 3.8 percent
from the same period the year before, data showed, and traders said demand
from China had picked up slightly. -
more
US weekly steel output ends 2008 near depression
levels - The early 1980s were not good years for the US steel sector, and
most recently, raw steel production in the US in the final week of 2008 dropped
to levels not seen in the past 26 years, according to data reported Monday
by the Washington DC-based American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) U.S. Factory Orders, Home Sales Contract
as Companies, Consumers Retrench // Stocks in U.S. Gain on Obama Stimulus
Plan; Disney, Citigroup Shares Climb // Obama Is Said to Favor About $775
Billion for U.S. Economic Stimulus Plan // Most Asian Stocks Rise, Led by
Electronics Makers; Utilities Drop on Crude // Indian Exporters Predict 10
Million Job Cuts by March on Global Recession // Toyota, Honda U.S. Sales
Slump Ends Annual Growth Dating From Mid-1990s // European Stocks Rise for
Sixth Day; Rio Tinto, Next, Debenhams Shares Gain // Euro Drops to Lowest
Level in Three Weeks on Speculation ECB to Cut Rates // U.K. Services, Confidence
Shrink; House Prices Drop by the Most Since 1991
Since this morning, the US Dollar has backed off some of its earlier gains
against the Euro, now trading 1.1% higher. Crude oil has slipped back below
$50/barrel, but not by much. Precious metals are trading mixed, but base
metals ended trading solidly higher. Nickel had another gainer, and indicator
charts show it spent much of the first part of the session on the climb,
while falling back some before the end. Dow Jones reports three month nickel
ended the day at $6.01/lb . It appears
that some of the other metals have started to play catch-up to nickel, which
started increasing in price last week on index restructuring speculation.
One of the benefactors to this increase are those holding junior mining stock.
These stocks were pummeled in the latter part of 2008, but have had a few
bullish days lately. Sucden's day old chart shows yesterday's slowdown failed
to stick in today's trading
(chart). The
Baltic Dry Index continues to drift, with no clear direction established.
Most metal analysts seem to agree that this increase in nickel pricing is
a temporary situation. Based on the fundamentals, we would have to agree.
But, we readily admit that we do not fully understand the whole fund re-indexing
situation and its overall impact on the market, and therefore aren't sure
how the funds may be looking at this. We saw a similar event last January,
but it saw no where near the overall affect on pricing as it is having this
year. So will it stick? Or, as Ed pointed out in his notes this morning,
will we see $6.30/lb before the market calms down? And if it doesn't
hold over the next few weeks, how far is the downside? Stay tuned.
Commodity/Economic Comments
Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst at Calyon Credit Agricole AB in London
- "We see a price rise and then a price fall next week. Everyone's gloomy,
we don't know whether we're facing a depression or a recession, or what."
Stainless steel prices falling again due
to weak demand at the end of 2008 - Stainless steel prices continue
to decline, not only because of falling demand and collapsing surcharges
but also because buyers have stopped purchasing any product at this moment.
- more
2010 ‘mining country’
aspiration at risk - The bid to elevate the Philippines to "mining country
status" — or a country with minerals accounting for at least 6% of total
exports — by 2010 is threatened by declining domestic mineral production
amid dampened metal prices, government and industry officials said. -
more
China to implement agent system for iron
ore import - China Business News reported that China's Iron and Steel Association
takes its trump card like measure so as to trim its chaotic imported iron
ore market. - more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.24/lb
higher, and possibly peaking for the day.
Base metals are all trading solidly in the green, despite the fact that the
US Dollar is having another big day against the Euro, up 2% this morning.
Crude oil broke the $50/barrel mark this morning, and is up 4%, while precious
metals are mixed. Overnight, Asian markets closed slightly higher, and European
markets are solidly higher this morning. Even futures show Wall Street will
open solidly in the green. Traders around the world are expressing their
hopes that the Obama economic stimulus plan will turn the world economies
around, and the proposal appears to be getting more coverage in foreign media,
than in our own. In a reversal of recent news, the Baltic Dry Index rose
by 3 points, and nickel inventories in LME warehouses fell a little.
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "In yesterday's commentary, we
expressed some optimism that metals could do somewhat better over the course
of this week, particularly if both the energy and US equity sustain their
recent gains. Another looming positive, we thought, had to do with market
perceptions discounting a growing bipartisan consensus around a massive stimulus
program coming out of the Obama administration. While metals did not exactly
rally yesterday, they did pare earlier losses, and seem to be making up for
lost ground today. In fact, Shanghai markets have closed limit up, with copper
trading to be suspended tomorrow, as prices have already risen by the allowable
limit for three days in a row. ... Where to from here? Unless the macro
headlines start to improve, we suspect that the kind of bounces we are now
seeing in metals would be, at best, rallies in a bear market. Having said,
this particular bear could be getting somewhat long in the tooth, and might
transform itself into a sideways ranging market before long, but again, this
very much depends on the macro data that will be released in the weeks ahead.
... We are currently at $13,325, up $475, and close to our highs for
the day; we expect nickel to do slightly better from here, and would not
rule out an advance to just under $14,000, the topside of a 2 1/2 month trading
range."(read Ed Meir's complete morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) Iron ore stockpiles at China's 22 major ports stood at 60.15 million
tons on Friday, Jan. 2, down 1.3 percent from Dec. 26, while Indian iron
ore stockpiles decreased by 8.16 percent to 13.17 million tons, according
to figures released by Shanghai-based Mysteel.
(Interfax) Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Group) Co. Ltd. (TISCO), China's largest
stainless steel mill, plans to produce around 2 million tons of stainless
steel products in 2009, although it is not very positive about Chinese demand,
a TISCO official told Interfax on Jan. 6.
(Yieh) Taiwan’s Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco) has announced a temporary
halt to its shipments, except for scheduled shipments; this situation was
triggered by nickel recently shooting to above US$13,000/ton, from the previous
price of US$9,800/ton. Besides, stainless steel prices are likely to increase,
if nickel prices don’t fall in a week, the company added. Yusco is taking
a careful wait-and-see attitude.
(Yieh) According to the report from the World Steel Association (worldsteel),
the world crude steel production for the 66 countries was 89 million metric
tons in November, which was about 19 percent lower than the same month in
2007.
(Interfax) Jinchuan to increase nickel production to 125,000 tons in 2009
New Caledonia’s SMSP secures
more loans to build Koniambo project - New Caledonia’s SMSP mining company
has secured more funding for its Koniambo nickel project in the territory’s
north. -
more
Chromex Cuts Chrome Output From African
Mine to 10,000 Tons - Chromex Mining Plc, a chrome mining company operating
in southern Africa, cut production at the Stellite mine to 10,000 metric
tons of ore a month. -
more
POSCO may cut steel production - POSCO
Co Ltd, the world's No. 4 steelmaker, said on Tuesday it might cut steel
production further in the current quarter to cope with slumping demand from
automakers and electronics manufacturers. -
more
JFE wants iron ore prices to fall to 07/08
levels - JFE Steel Co wants prices of iron ore and coking coal for term supply
in the 2009/10 business year to fall to at least 2007/08 levels due to a
precipitous decline in steel demand, president Hajime Bada said on Tuesday.
-
more
Base metals demand could pick up in H2 –
Fitch - Although growth in the global base metals sector was expected
to slow over the next 12 months, ratings agency Fitch Ratings stated that
improvement in credit availability and implementation of fiscal stimulus
programmes could result in stronger demand in the second half of 2009. -
more
No limit on nickel emissions - Esperance
Port Authority has been issued with a licence which fails to limit the amount
of cancer-causing nickel dust that can be emitted from the port. -
more
FACTBOX-Production cuts by major global
steel firms - Following is a timeline of announcements of output reductions
made by steel companies in recent weeks: -
more
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending January
3, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 866,000 net tons while the capability
utilization rate was 36.3 percent. Production was 2,128,000 tons in the week
ending January 3, 2008, while the capability utilization then was 88.7 percent.
The current week production represents a 59.3 percent decrease from the same
period in the previous year. Production for the week ending January 3, 2009
is up 8.3 percent from the previous week ending December 27, 2008 when production
was 800,000 tons and the rate of capability utilization was 33.5 percent.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) Stocks in U.S. Drop on Earnings Concern;
AT&T, JPMorgan Chase Shares Fall // Ford, Honda December U.S. Sales Slump
More Than 30% as Consumers Retrench // Pequot's Wien Sees 33% Gain in S&P
This Year, Rallies in Crude Oil, Gold // Asian Stocks Climb for Eighth Day
on Government Stimulus; Nintendo Gains // Honda, Toyota Lead Decline in Japan
Vehicle Sales as Recession Cuts Demand // Dollar Rises to Three-Week High
Versus Euro on Prospects for U.S. Stimulus // European Stocks Advance for
Fifth Day; Nestle, EADS, Xstrata Shares Climb // German Government Considering
Two-Year Stimulus Plan Totaling $68 Billion (AP) Construction spending falls
less than expected (WSJ) Japan's Auto Sales Skid to 34-Year Low
The US Dollar maintained its earlier gains against the Euro, and is still
trading 2-3/4% higher. Crude oil has had a volatile day, with trades ranging
from $45.55 to $48.50/barrel and is currently trading around $47.50. Metals,
except for platinum and zinc, ended, or are trading lower. Nickel had a volatile
day as well, with session trading dipping by early afternoon, and then
recovering. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended the day at
$5.83/lb . News
that Jinchuan was increasing nickel production despite the low price, and
the rising dollar helped handcuff nickel traders today, but we don't expect
the bulls of last week to disappear completely. Sucden's day old chart shows
the recent speculation the commodity indexes re-weightings have brought to
nickel trading (chart
here). LME inventory changes were positive, albeit a non factor today,
and the Baltic Dry Index has drifted so far this year, with a combined change
over two days totalling 2 points.
(Dow Jones) Market observers said copper and other metals may resume their
rally in coming days because of the annual commodity indexes re-weightings,
although all agreed fundamentals remained dire.
(China Business News) - Mr Qi Xiangdong deputy GS of China Iron & Steel
Association - "Domestic steel prices have fallen to 1994 levels and the chill
winter implies the market warming up is not far."
(Dow Jones) The European Union widened its steel trade deficit in tonnage
terms during the third quarter compared with the previous quarter as Chinese
steel imports more than doubled, figures provided by U.K.-based Iron and
Steel Statistics Bureau Ltd. showed Monday.
(Wall Street Journal) - The current U.S. recession, with no end in sight,
threatens to be the longest since 1933, and that helps explain why investors
are having so much trouble gauging the stock market. ... Since the Great
Depression, only two recessions have run longer than this one, the first
ending in 1975 and the other in 1982. Each lasted 16 months, according to
the National Bureau of Economic Research, the government-designated recession
tracker.”
(Dow Jones) Monthly Chinese mill steel exports fell in November to their
lowest level since June 2005 while imports dropped to their lowest level
since February 2000, the U.K.-based Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau Ltd
said Monday.
(RTT) Cotton & Western Mining says iron ore price is now down to near
2004 annual fixed contact price
Labour talks continue as strike threatens B.C. ports -
more
According to AK Steel's monthly surcharge
report, nickel averaged $4.3937/lb in December ($4.85/lb in November), molybdenum
averaged $9.60/lb ($10.00/lb in November), chrome averaged $1.032/lb ($1.54/lb
in November), and iron averaged $235/GT ($145/Gt in November) in December.
You can compare these figures over time on our excel spreadsheet
here,
and check historical surcharges
here
AK Steel Announces February 2009 Surcharges for Electrical and Stainless
Steels - AK Steel has advised its customers that a $165 per ton surcharge
will be added to invoices for electrical steel products shipped in February
2009. -
more
Asia top nickel producer Jinchuan to increase
output in 2009 despite dull market - Jinchuan Group Ltd. (JNMC), Asia's largest
nickel producer located in Gansu province, northwest China, announced Sunday
that it would expand its production scale so as to lower costs in 2009, in
spite of the dull nickel and copper market. -
more
A debt of $34 billion - A
debt of $34 billion to the state court in the accounts of New Caledonia,
and in the greatest silence, for years. Born of a change in taxation of nickel
occurred in 1975, this sum is heavy today challenged by local politicians.
- translated version
here (original French
here)
London Metal Exchange Trading Jumps to
Record in 2008 - The London Metal Exchange, the world’s largest copper
market, said trading rose 22 percent last year for a fourth consecutive record,
paced by nickel and lead. -
more
Cuba Nickel Strong, Competitive - The Cuban
nickel industry in 2008 upstaged the tourism sector with 70,400 tons mined
for returns of 5.5 billion dollars. -
more
Rio Tinto restarts Australian iron
ore mines - World No. 2 iron ore miner Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc is restarting its
iron ore mines in western Australia after a two-week closure to cut production
by about 10 percent due to lower demand from steel mills in China. -
more
December steel prices indicate that the market
may have reached rock bottom in November. - The price of steel last month
showed an increase for the first time since it plummeted in July. -
more
Eskom says smelter shutdowns caused
large tumble in power demand - South African utility company Eskom said Monday
that the shutdown of smelters through the credit crunch has caused power
demand by the country's biggest users to tumble - but the national power
generator still can't say when full power will be given back to the mines.
-
more
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:50 am CST show 3 month nickel trading around $.16/lb
lower with news that China nickel producer
Jinchuan will increase nickel production despite lower prices. This
has offset news that the Chinese PMI rose slightly in December, and forced
some traders to take some profits from the recent price rise. Indicator
charts show nickel is currently off session lows though. Metals, both
precious and base, are trading lower this morning, as the Dollar makes a
big morning jump on the Euro, currently trading 2-1/2% higher. Crude oil
is also trading lower, down nearly 3% and just under $46/barrel. Overnight,
Asian markets ended solidly higher, while European markets are higher, but
without as much as enthusiasm. US futures show a slightly lower opening.
LME nickel falls almost 5 pct on China
output rise - London Metal Exchange nickel fell 4.9 percent on Monday, sliding
after China's Jinchuan said it planned to boost metal output by almost 20
percent this year, despite soft market conditions. -
more
Nickel Gains Most Since 1987 in London
on Index Speculation - Nickel gained the most since at least 1987 in London
on speculation index funds will buy more industrial metals this month to
reflect annual re-weightings in their benchmarks. Zinc and copper also advanced.
-
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "Metal prices soared again
on Friday in very thin market conditions and on continued speculation about
index rebalancing. Nickel took the lead, jumping by almost 16%, while copper
and tin were also very strong, rising by about 8% on the day. ... Despite
a possible upside bias in metals over the course of the week (notwithstanding
today’s rather sluggish opening), it is difficult to get too excited
about prospects going forward, and the best we can hope for, is for a trading
range to replace the relentless bear trend evident in most complexes. We
say this in view of the fact that the US economy has yet to turn the corner,
in that consumer spending, labor markets, corporate earnings, and manufacturing
activity, are all moribund. In addition, while interest rates and credit
spreads are heading lower, there seems to be no noticeable improvement in
loan activity, not that surprising given that we seem to be falling further
into recession. Not helping matters much either, is the fact that the slowdown
in the US is not being offset by growth in other global economies. Instead,
as we have been noting in our commentary, and as the Wall Street Journal
chart reproduced in our attachment also shows, global economies are dovetailing
the US slowdown, thus robbing the metals sector of non-US demand. ... We
are currently at $12,375, down $825, and giving up a good portion of Friday's
gains. A story out overnight, that Jinchuan Group plans to increase output
of nickel, copper, and cobalt in 2009, did not sit well with the market today,
and is contributing to the current decline. Jinchuan expects to produce 125,000
tons of nickel this year, up nearly 20% from the 104,600 tons produced in
2008. Nevertheless, we still expect nickel to do slightly better from here,
before it fades and would not rule out an advance to just under $14,000,
the topside of a 2 1/2 month trading range." (read Ed Meir's complete
morning base metals report
here)
(Interfax) China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of
Customs jointly announced on Dec. 31 that China will reinstate copper, nickel,
cobalt and aluminum tolling on Feb. 1, 2009, in order to boost the country's
foreign trade growth.
China to resume tax-free policy on copper, nickel, aluminium - China will
resume a tax-free policy on imports of concentrate for copper, nickel and
cobalt from Feb 1, a statement on the Ministry of Commerce's website said.
(www.mofcom.gov.cn) -
more
(Yieh) China Metal Material Circulation Association said that China's stainless
steel output reached 7.1 million tonnes in 2008, down by 6% YoY in comparison
to 2007.
Xinhua - Jinchuan Group Ltd, China's top nickel producer, said it plans to
increase output of nickel, copper and cobalt in 2009, despite a weakening
global economy. Jinchuan expects to produce 125,000 tonnes of nickel this
year, up nearly 20 percent from 104,600 tonnes in 2008, a statement on the
company's website (www.jnmc.com) said.
Expert Commodity Picks for 2009: Jim Rogers and Marc Faber -
more
Tumultuous year for nickel - Nickel prices
plummet, workers laid off, mines shuttered -
more
Nickel trade lackluster in Asia despite
LME prices rising 30% - Nickel trading activities were lackluster in Asia
Monday despite London Metal Exchange nickel prices rising 30% last week,
South Korean and Japanese market sources said. -
more
Japanese base metal producers raise list
prices on LME gains - Japanese base metal producers raised domestic list
prices effective Monday following the rise in the London Metal Exchange prices
over the Japanese new year holiday period last week. -
more
Domestic Price Of Ni-Based Stainless Scrap
Passes Over To New Year On Yen 70,000 - 75,000 / Ton = Owing To Reduced
Production Of Stainless Steel, Demand For Purchases Of This Scrap Has Been
Still Depressed - more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
Weekend Brief, January 4
Papua New Guinea and China's New Empire
- As he completes nearly seven years as The Globe and Mail's Beijing bureau
chief, Geoffrey York says the most striking change is the boom in Chinese
trade, aid and influence around the world, especially in places the West
has neglected or rejected. For an in-depth look, he visits a $1.4-billion
nickel and cobalt mine that a Chinese company has made spring from the wilderness
in the Pacific – but not without serious conflicts -
more
(MySteel) It is reported that more steel mills have returned to the market
in light of the reviving demand bolstered by the stimulus packages released
by the central government. .. Statistics shows that 19 steel manufacturers
have declared to carry out maintenance in September and the number increased
to 28 in October then falls to 27 in November. News learned that 5 steel
mills have resumed their production lines in December including Tiantie Chongli
Steel Making Company, Jiugang Hongxing, Lingyuan Steel, Pangang and Fujian
Sanming Steel. Tiantie Steelmaking Plant aims to run at full capacity in
next Jan.
Nickel sees strong rally - Nickel rallied
strongly this week on expectation of greater demand from steel companies,
for which it forms a key raw material. The industrial metal gaining weightage
in a popular international commodity index basket also triggered enhanced
investor interest. here was also technical buying coming at low levels, said
the analysts. -
more
AISSIA against on anti-dumping duty on stainless steel - All India Stainless
Steel Industries Association (AISSIA) has urged the Government not to impose
the proposed additional 20 per cent anti-dumping duty on any cold roll stainless
steel. -
more
Steel producers to give discounts instead of slashing prices - Domestic steel
producers are looking at giving discounts of up to Rs 1,500/tonne on certain
steel products to selected customers instead of slashing prices of all the
products this month. -
more
Call for Increased Steel Tariffs - Managing director of Isfahan Steel Mill
called for increasing steel import tariffs in light of reduced demand and
falling prices in world markets. -
more
Global Steel Production & Pricing
Under Pressure Through 1H'09 - According to Fitch Ratings' 2009 global
steel outlook report issued today, Fitch expects the current sharp contraction
in steel demand to continue to weigh on steel production and pricing through
the first half of 2009. -
more
Iron ore spot market pricing starts the
new year on stable note - Imported Chinese iron ore spot prices started the
year on a steady note, as trading was minimal with many traders still out
on vacation. As such, the Platts reference price of 62/62% Fe-content iron
ore fines was unchanged at $70/dry metric ton CFR North China. -
more
Chinese steel exports to major destinations -
chart
Chinalco: China resource industry sees opportunity amid global crisis - Some
Chinese mineral giants see the global economic slowdown as a blessing in
disguise. -
more
Analysts see sluggish Chinese market despite price rebound - Xinhua.net reported
that domestic large mills including Baosteel have lifted their ex work prices
for next February alongside the rebounding market prices and the moves have
helped restore market confidence. -
more
US steel industry on brink of collapse -
The US steel industry is in collapse and looking for a massive government
investment program of up to $US1 trillion ($A1.42 trillion) to stimulate
demand for the key commodity, a report said on Friday. -
more
Post-production metal prices driven down - At least the scrap metal coming
out of the presses at Jagemann Stamping still has some worth. -
more
Friday, January 2
Daily
Nickel/Stainless Wrap-up
Baltic Dry Index - minus 1 to 773. (chart)
(chart
2)
Headlines & leaders - (Bloomberg) U.S. Manufacturing Shrinks at Fastest
Pace Since 1980 as Recession Spreads // Stocks in U.S. Advance on Stimulus
Expectation; GM, Citigroup Shares Climb // India Cuts Interest Rates, Unveils
Second Stimulus Package to Spur Growth // Asian Stocks Advance on Optimism
Government Policies Will Bolster Earnings // Euro Falls to Two-Week Low Versus
Dollar on Drop in European Manufacturing // Stocks in Europe Climb, Rebound
From Record 2008 Drop; Rio, Carrefour Gain // European Manufacturing Shrinks
at Record Pace, Signals Deepening Recession // November ISM Index -
here
Dollar continues to trades about 3/4 of 1% higher, while crude oil has reversed
an earlier slide, and is now trading over 6% higher, at $46.00/barrel. Metals
ended higher, on short covering and speculation that upcoming index restructuring
will be favorable to metals beaten down over 2008. Indicator charts show
nickel started strong this morning, trading over $6/lb at one point, before
backing off a bit and steadying. Dow Jones reports three month nickel ended
the day at $5.96/lb
($13,150/tonne). MF Global's Ed Meir noted this morning "However, we see
this move as primarily short covering in thin conditions, and expect much
of these gains to recede over the course of next week when participants return
and conclude that the macro landscape looks depressingly unchanged from where
they left it." With no technical or fundamental change in place (Ed has
RSI at 62, with LME inventories growing overnight by over 400 tonnes),
the last three days of increase can only be surmised as speculation on possible
shifting index allocations and short covering. In 2008, we saw this same
bout of speculation, but it came a little later and closer to the actual
index change decisions, which will be made by the second or third full week
of January.
Morning
Briefing(8:00 AM CST
is 2 PM in London)
Indicators at 7:30 am CST show 3 month nickel selling around
$.57/lb higher, but off earlier high's.
Traders are betting heavily that nickel will benefit from the fund index
re-shuffling's. Except for gold, all other metals are higher this morning,
and the US Dollar is also trading higher against the Euro, by nearly a full
percent. Crude oil is trading lower, by over 2-1/2%, and is trading for around
$42.30/barrel at the moment. In overnight trading, Asian markets ended mostly
up, although Australia and China ended lower. European markets are higher
this morning, and US futures show a slightly lower opening.
Nickel Advances to 2-Month High in
London on Index Speculation - Nickel rose to a two-month high in London on
speculation index funds will buy more industrial metals this month to reflect
annual re-weightings in their benchmarks. Zinc and copper also advanced -
more
Nickel soars ahead of index re-jig, tin jumps - Nickel soared almost 13 percent
on Friday on buying ahead of annual rebalancing by major commodity indices,
while copper firmed and tin jumped more than 8 percent. -
more
Edward Meir of MF Global Morning Comments - "There was a surprising
surge in commodity prices late in the day on Wednesday, just as most participants
were closing the books on 2008. Oil, in particular, was extremely strong,
rallying by about $6 a barrel, and helping pull some of the base metals up
along with it. ... Although some of Wednesday's gains are being rolled back
today in energy, where crude is off by about $3.00 on resumed Russian-Ukrainian
talks, base metals are still strong. However, we see this move as primarily
short covering in thin conditions, and expect much of these gains to recede
over the course of next week when participants return and conclude that the
macro landscape looks depressingly unchanged from where they left it. ...
We are currently at $13,000, up $1300, with nickel being talked about as
a possible beneficiary of index reconfiguration. The current move could take
prices to just under $14,000, the topside of a 2 1/2 month trading range;
we would be inclined to go short nickel at that level."(read Ed Meir's
complete morning base metals report
here)
China raised the VAT rate for minerals two months ago to ease the burdens
of producers. These took effect Thursday. The VAT rate for such mineral imports
as copper ore, nickel ore, aluminum ore as well as ore concentrates was raised
to 17 per cent from 13 per cent, according to the Ministry of Finance and
the State Administration of Taxation.
UAE - Construction activity falls by 85 pct in 12 months as projects fail
to secure funding -
more
China: Manufacturing PMI recovers slightly in December -
pdf here
(Antara) Indonesian Antam to cut
Ferronickel Production by 30% in 2009 - Indonesian state-owned mining company
PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) said it will cut its ferronickel production by 30
per cent this year as it hopes to curb a downward trend in the commodity's
price. Antam would rely more on gold and bauxite production for income more
on gold and bauxite as ferronickel prices were not expected to improve this
year, Antam president Alwin Syah Loebis said.
Jindal Stainless buys chrome ore assets
in Middle East, Europe - Jindal Stainless (JSL), the country’s largest
stainless steel maker, has acquired chrome ore assets in the Middle East
and Europe. - more
China moly oxide, ferromoly trade quiet
on poor overseas demand - Chinese molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum trade
remained quiet this week due to the New Year holidays and poor overseas demand,
industry sources said Friday. -
more
Mining union urges Xstrata to reveal
financial situation - The mining union says it will today urge Xstrata to
offer voluntary redundancy packages to sacked workers. -
more
Commodity Boom Turns Bust in 2008 as
Worldwide Economy Crumbles - Commodity prices in 2008 plunged the most in
five decades as demand for energy, metals and grains tumbled in the second
half because of the recession. -
more
Kremlin Intervention, China Demand to
Stabilize Russian Nickel Producer - Russia’s leading mining company,
and one of the leading suppliers of nickel to China’s stainless steelmills,
may be facing further revenue and profit cuts in 2009, as the international
nickel price continues to fall, and inventories of the metal grow. -
more
Steel Industry, in Slump, Looks to U.S. Stimulus
- The steel industry, having entered the recession in the best of health,
is emerging as a leading indicator of what lies ahead. As steel production
goes — and it is now in collapse — so will go the national economy.
-
more
US steel industry urges 'buy America' recovery plan - The ailing U.S. steel
industry is pressing President-elect Barack Obama for a public works plan
that could be worth $1 trillion over two years to boost flagging demand for
U.S.-made steel, the New York Times reported in Friday's editions. -
more
Pittsburgh-area stainless steel plant lays off 200 - President of the USW
Local 1212 at Midland Steve Clutter says only about 10 of the 230 people
who had worked at the plant still have jobs. -
more
Earthquake drill finds weaknesses in steel high-rises - Simulation of a massive
Southern California quake suggests about 5 such buildings would collapse.
But many engineers say other buildings are riskier and should receive priority
in retrofit plans. -
more
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
London Metal Exchange inventory figures/changes - (for today's
figures see MF Global report above)
(charts and archives)
Today's almost official prices
here / Yesterday's actual
LME official prices
here
or
here(chart)
Shanghai Jinchuan nickel price - available
here(charts)
Please let us know if any of these links stop working, stop carrying
info, or become available to subscriber's only. We encourage our readers
to use the services of those companies who supply reports and information
free of charge.Contact
us
All prices shown on this page are indications only. "A Guide To
LME
Trading"...pdf here "The ABCs of a Metals Exchange"
...pdf here(Molybdenum
prices are for molybdenum oxide, an ingredient and major price factor in
316 stainless) (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.622 pounds ) Updated
daily before 8 am CST and before 1 pm CST weekdays -
DisclaimerCandlestick Pattern Dictionary
here / Intro to Candlesticks
here Original content and opinions copyright
www.estainlesssteel.com. Note - For real time and official
LME prices, LME requires a user subscribe to an authorized LME vendor.
Daily
Nickel/Stainless Wrap-up
(
. Looking at Sucden's day old chart
(
Reports
Lower costs give scant relief to metal
producers - Metals producers must take further cost-cutting steps to avoid
closure despite the falling costs of producing industrial metals, helped
by sharp declines in prices for energy, raw materials and labour. -
Fortescue earns $610m with iron ore
sold at discount - Fortescue Metals has admitted selling some of its iron
ore shipments at a discount to the benchmark price before the conclusion
of this year's pricing talks. -
Shuvalov: Tycoons Won't All Get Help -
Russia will not write a blank check to save top businessmen hit by the global
economic crisis, and the state expects something in return for helping bail
them out, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said Thursday. -
Commodity/Economic Comments
Vale Reaches Agreement in Canada to Unblock
Nickel Shipments - Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world’s second-largest
nickel refiner, reached an agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador to build
a nickel-processing plant in the Canadian province, clearing an impasse that
halted shipments. -
Vale agrees paid leave deal with Brazil
unions - Seven labour unions have given their consent to Brazilian miner
Vale to put their members on leave with half-pay at any time between now
and May 31 as a way to avoid layoffs, Vale said on Thursday. -
Zimbabwe: Mining Industry Anticipates
Boom - The mining industry is poised to benefit from the projected rise in
the global metal prices this year, analysts have said. -
Iron Ore Market May Have Bottomed, Fortescue
Predicts - The iron ore market may have bottomed as demand from Chinese
steelmakers recovers, driving prices for the raw material higher, according
to Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-biggest producer.
-
(JMB) Nippon Steel to Idle A Blast Furnace
for Additional Production Cut - Nippon Steel announced on Thursday the firm
expands the raw steel production cut to historical 4.2 million tonnes in
second half of fiscal 2008 ending March 2009 compared with the first half
year.
Morning Nickel
Inventory and Price Statistics & Figures
World Growth Grinds to Virtual Halt, IMF
Urges Decisive Global Policy Response - World growth is forecast to fall
to its lowest level since World War II, with financial markets remaining
under stress and the global economy taking a sharp turn for the worse, sending
both global output and trade plummeting, the IMF said in its latest assessment
of the world economy. -
House approves "Buy America" steel measure
- The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a controversial
"Buy America" steel provision as part of an $825 billion package to help
pull the U.S. economy out of recession. -
China slams EU anti-dumping move,
threatens WTO action - China Wednesday blasted an EU decision to slap
hefty anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made screws and bolts and said it may
take the issue to the World Trade Organisation. -
Sherritt says Madagascar project needs
review - Sherritt International said on Wednesday its Ambatovy joint-venture
nickel project in Madagascar needs to be restructured as it copes with falling
nickel prices and -
Russia And China Implement Countermeasures
For Depressed Nickel Market = Russia Revokes Export Duty On Nickel, China
Revises Regulations For Conversion Trade On Consignment -
Kazakhstan miner ENRC asks govt to
cut key tax - London-listed Kazakh mining and metals group ENRC asked the
government on Wednesday to temporarily reduce a key minerals extraction tax
rate to help the sector deal with falling global metals prices. -
Xstrata price hit by fears of stake
sale by Glencore - Xstrata led a mining sell-off amid revived worries that
Glencore, its biggest shareholder and marketing partner, was under pressure
to sell down its stake, particularly given Xstrata’s exposure to
ferrochrome, which is used for making stainless steel. -
Spain's Acerinox threatens job cuts on
weak demand - Spain's Acerinox said on Monday it might temporarily lay off
workers at its Spanish factory if demand for its stainless steel did not
pick up in the next two weeks. -
African Eagle Aims to Start Tanzanian
Nickel Production by 2011 - African Eagle Resources Plc, a British metals
explorer, may start producing nickel from the Dutwa deposit in Tanzania as
soon as late 2011 if it can raise the necessary funds, said Managing Director
Mark Parker. -
Courtesy AISI - In the week ending January
24, 2009, domestic raw steel production was 1,025,000 net tons while the
capability utilization rate was 43.1 percent. Production was 2,154,000 tons
in the week ending January 24, 2008, while the capability utilization then
was 90.3 percent. The current week production represents a 52.5 percent decrease
from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending
January 24, 2009 is down 2.0 percent from the previous week ending January
17, 2009 when production was 1,045,000 tons and the rate of capability
utilization was 43.8 percent.
Domestic steel units see revival of demand
- After witnessing a slump in demand in the October-December quarter of the
current financial year that forced output cuts, the domestic steel industry
is on a revival mode. -
Miners hit by chrome warning -
International Ferro Metals, the miner of ferrochrome in South Africa used
for making stainless steel, dropped 19 per cent after it warned that it has
had to agree much lower selling prices for ferrochrome it thought it had
already sold and is having to write down the value of its ferrochrome inventory
after China slashed the price it will pay for the mineral this quarter by
57 per cent compared with the previous quarter. -
Bailout package for displaced workers
gains support - (excerpt) This developed as 405 workers were laid off by
a nickel mining firm in Dinapigue, Isabela last week. The Platinum Group
Metals Corp. was forced to shut down operations after the decline in the
price of nickel in the world market.
Antam Says Global Nickel Demand May
Fall 30 Percent - PT Aneka Tambang, Indonesia’s second-largest
nickel producer, expects global consumption to fall 30 percent this year
as the worldwide recession slows demand and European steel mills reduce output.
-
POSCO Rides Out Global Slowdown Storm
- Steel makers around the world don't have good memories of last year. Battered
by dwindling orders, production cuts and tanking steel prices in the second
half of 2008, companies witnessed a boom-to-bust scenario that wiped out
even the good times in the first half. But is the worst over yet? -
ThyssenKrupp still sees sharp profit
drop - German industrial group ThyssenKrupp AG still expects sales and profits
to fall sharply this fiscal year due to the severe global economic downturn,
Chief Executive Ekkehard Schulz said on Friday. -
World Nickel Mkt In 42,900 Ton
Surplus Jan-Nov -WBMS - The world refined nickel market was in surplus by
42,900 metric tons in January-November of 2008, despite a drop in production,
the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday. -
New Caledonia’s southern province
and SLN sign up for joint deal - New Caledonia’s nickel producer SLN
and the government of the southern province have signed a partnership agreement
centered on giving SLN access to a large nickel ore deposit -
Global Steel Production Down in 2008 and
to Fall Again in 2009 - The speed of collapse in steel demand throughout
the world surprised the producers, consumers, distributors and analysts,
including MEPS researchers. -
Anglo halts production at Loma nickel
mine - Anglo American Plc has temporarily halted production at its
Loma nickel mine in Venezuela, the firm said on Tuesday. -
No Guarantees We Will Survive-Seb -
Tati Nickel Mining Company (TNMC) new general manager Sebetlela Sebetlela
has lamented the fall in metal prices on the world market, saying it is a
huge challenge for the mining industry. -
Oligarch turns to Rothschild over Rusal
debt - United Company Rusal, the aluminium giant in effect controlled by
Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, has called in the London office of investment
bank Rothschild to restructure its $14bn (£9.5bn) debt burden. -
ThyssenKrupp bosses on trial over fire
deaths - Six ThyssenKrupp managers went on trial Thursday for the deaths
of seven employees in a 2007 accident at the German steelmaker’s plant
in Turin that highlighted Italy’s poor record on workplace safety. -
Thai Thainox declines comment on POSCO
bid talk - Thainox Stainless , Thailand's largest stainless steel producer,
declined comment on Wednesday on a newspaper report that it was in talks
to be acquired by South Korea's POSCO. -
CNCEC inks a $440m nickel contract in
Turkey - Tianchen, a subsidiary of China National Chemical Engineering Co
(CNCEC), has signed a $440 million Design-Build contract with the UK-based
European Nickel PLC on a nickel project in Turkey. -
For those of you who bought
a house you could afford, read the contract you were signing, and have been
making your mortgage payments on time, and have watched the value of that
home fall for the last few years, there is a new word that you are going
to be hearing a lot of in the coming weeks. "Mortgage modification". Even
the banks, you know, the guys that have gotten the biggest chunk of the
government's (TARP money) economic stimulus package to date, are crying "foul"
- ("Bank group slams lawmaker mortgage deal with Citi" -
Stainless steel prices falling again due
to weak demand at the end of 2008 - Stainless steel prices continue
to decline, not only because of falling demand and collapsing surcharges
but also because buyers have stopped purchasing any product at this moment.
- 
(
According to AK Steel's monthly surcharge
report, nickel averaged $4.3937/lb in December ($4.85/lb in November), molybdenum
averaged $9.60/lb ($10.00/lb in November), chrome averaged $1.032/lb ($1.54/lb
in November), and iron averaged $235/GT ($145/Gt in November) in December.
You can compare these figures over time on our excel spreadsheet
Cuba Nickel Strong, Competitive - The Cuban
nickel industry in 2008 upstaged the tourism sector with 70,400 tons mined
for returns of 5.5 billion dollars. -
December steel prices indicate that the market
may have reached rock bottom in November. - The price of steel last month
showed an increase for the first time since it plummeted in July. -
Papua New Guinea and China's New Empire
- As he completes nearly seven years as The Globe and Mail's Beijing bureau
chief, Geoffrey York says the most striking change is the boom in Chinese
trade, aid and influence around the world, especially in places the West
has neglected or rejected. For an in-depth look, he visits a $1.4-billion
nickel and cobalt mine that a Chinese company has made spring from the wilderness
in the Pacific – but not without serious conflicts -
