Daily Nickel Market Prices

(all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.6 pounds - what we use to determine closing - see bottom of page)

8-31	My commentary yesterday of whether a predicted fall in copper prices today could drag down nickel was more evidence why I do not play the market, nor ever will. Copper didn't go down, nor did nickel. They both rose instead. LME nickel ended the day at $13.03/lb ($28,700/tonne) Now if this whole lottery ticket thing would just pay off. *    Another bookmark for those interested here This is Barron's Electronic Calendar - lists all the upcoming report release dates for the week that traders watch. *    The heat is on nickel inventory here *    Westpac warns US economy could drag down nickel prices next year and says a 2007 average of $6.40/lb  ($14,100/tonne) is possible. here  So far this year, nickel has averaged about $9.13/lb, up from $6.69/lb last year. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $14.43/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.50/lb *    LME nickel inventories today - minus 720 tons = 5,172 tons (in the past, this information was only available on pay sites or from LME the next day - we will publish todays inventory as long as it is available) *    LME nickel inventories yesterday - plus 84 tons = 5,892 tons (2,538 tons open)
8-30	Reports in that BHP and workers at Escondida copper mine have reached preliminary agreement. Commentary - If true, LME copper prices could fall tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if any drop in copper prices, pulls nickel down for a third day. Profit taking hit LME nickel again today, and it ended the day at $12.43/lb ($27,400/tonne) *    By pushing Phelps, Inco Avoids Breakup Fee (at least some of it) here and updated dollar amount correction here *    Inco and USW report no negotiations scheduled to end month old strike at Voisey's Bay. *    Globe and Mail article on Inco's board of directors begins with "So this is what humiliation looks like..." here *    Yieh repots Taiwan's largest steelmaker raised stainless steel prices for September. *    A bookmark for those who research US economic trends here *    Scotia Bank press release 8/29 - "Nickel prices will remain unusually elevated through much of 2007 and are likely to average US$9.75 per pound in 2006 and US$7.50 in 2007."  here *    Yesterday's official closing prices - cash - $15.42/lb - 3 month buyer - $13.34/lb *    LME nickel inventories - minus 312 tons = 5,808 tons (only 1,494 tons open)
8-29	While inventories continue to fall, US economic concerns grabbed traders attention after their 3 day extended weekend and nickel closed down at $12.91/lb ($28,450 tonne)  *    Norilsk reports it will take at least 3 weeks to repair a damaged skip hoist at its Komsomolsky mine. While the shaft is closed until repairs can be made, Norilsk forecasts no disruption in nickel output. *    Commentary - The Coming Crisis in Ferroalloy Sourcing here *    Commodities boom comes with a cost here *    Inco board of directors recommends investors to reject offer by CVRD and accept Phelps Dodge offer. ""To date, CVRD has indicated that it is not willing to enter into substantive discussions or negotiations with respect to improving the CVRD Offer." Commentary - on the surface this would appear to mean they were unable to get CVRD to raise their all cash offer, which most analysts already rate superior to Phelps bid. Below the surface, it may mean CVRD has refused to ensure the Inco board their jobs, which is a concern, the board having witnessed what happened to their neighbors at Falconbridge a few weeks back.
8-28	LME markets re-open tomorrow morning. *    Tropical Storm Ernesto passed over the nickel producing region of Cuba today but few expect damage enough to stop production. *    Anatomy of a Corporate Tragedy - Anglo American here *    Societe Generale raises its forecast for nickel deficit this year to 25,000 metric tonnes, from an earlier prediction of 20,000 tonnes. More concerning to consumers is the statement, reported by Bloomberg, that "the nickel market may remain in deficit of 30,000 tons next year". here *    Bureau of International Recycling web site - "After the sharply reduced crude stainless steel output in the second half of 2005, stainless mills adopted a relatively cautious approach in the first quarter to see if the improvement in demand was sustainable. Thus, Q1 output remained marginally below the same quarter last year. Based upon presently available information, it appears that output accelerated during the 2nd quarter and production in the first six months has probably reached the 13.3 mill tonnes mark, a slight increase of 1.4% over the same (strong) period last year. Coming from the low second half 2005, this means that the production in the 1st half of 2006 has increased by 15.5% to 13.3 mill tonnes, of which 74% or 9.8 mill tonnes was austenitic." 8/21/06   *    Yieh reports Taiwan's YUSCO to raise stainless steel base price by 14% for September. *    Friday's official closing - cash - $15.29/lb - 3 month buyer - $13.29/lb *    LME nickel inventory - minus 306 tons = 6,120 tons
8-25	LME nickel closed the day at $13.34/lb ($29,400/tonne). LME will be closed on Monday for national holiday. Have a nice weekend! *    Apple follows Dell's recall of lithium-ion batteries for laptop computers. Lithium-ion batteries have become popular in electronic devices over nickel-cadmium batteries due to a higher energy-to-weight ratio, and don't loose power as quickly when not in use. *    An economic slowdown could snag nickel's roll here *    Grupo Mexico denies it is looking to make a bid for Phelps Dodge here *    Negotiations are underway for 4th quarter ferrochrome prices with producers asking for 5 cents more per pound. Currently ferrochrome is selling for around 75 cents per pound. *    Yieh reports China's stainless market is very strong, with orders increasing because of the reported shortage of nickle at Posco. They also note China's Jisco Steel Group will loose about 7,000 tons of cold rolled stainless production during a two week shutdown for maintenance. *    Analyst's say Inco is being hurt by Voisey's Bay strike here *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $15.74/lb - 3 month buyer - $13.46/lb *    LME nickel inventories - minus 240 tons = 6,426 tons
8-24	LME nickel ended the day at $13.07/lb ($28,800/tonne) *    And finally, for the really important things in life, astrologers are all in a tizzy after astronomers proclaimed today that Pluto is no longer recognized as an official planet. Those born between October 24th and November 22nd just lost their ruling planet. I wonder why astrologer's didn't foresee this coming! So be kind to a Scorpio - their whole existence just went into the crapper today. And investors may want to think about science book publishing companies. *    AK Steel announces 10% price increase on stainless hot- rolled sheet and strip and continuous mill plate products effective September 3rd. Its stainless surcharges for the month will remain unchanged. *    Nickel prices likely to stay high here *    Why high prices don't always mean metals output rises here *    Canada's Industry Ministry has extended the review of Phelps Dodge takeover application of Inco for an additional 30-day period as permitted under the Investment Canada Act.This could force shareholders to vote on the deal, before it has received final regulatory approval. *    United Steel Workers turn up the heat on Inco over Voisey's Bay strike as workers at Thompson plant  say they won't process nickel concentrate from striking mine, after USW mine workers  at Sudbury said the same last week . here *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $15.08/lb - 3 month buyer - $13.07/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 426 tons  = 6,666 tons (and you thought nickel only had traders praying) - keep in mind, of the amount shown here, only 1,956 tons is open, the rest shown is cancelled warrants.
8-23	LME nickel ended the day at $13.02/lb ($28,700/tonne). *    Mineweb quotes Jim Lennon, executive director of commodities and mining research at Macquarie Bank here *    Ted Butler, an expert in silver, isn't happy about what LME isn't saying here *    The Australian had a couple of interesting articles. In this one, they quote BHP chief executive Chip Goodyear "We are likely to see an extended period of high cyclical prices." here  and in this one, they quote the UBS wealth management arm which states "Capital expenditure on metals production is increasing but is unlikely to have a significant impact on supplies for at least the next three to five years. here *    James Gutman, senior commodity economist at Goldman Sachs tells the Financial Times “I think it is likely in the coming months prices will ease, perhaps abruptly. I do not think nickel prices will fall to a level, say below $15,000, over the next 18 months as the structural support is very high.” here *    Sydney-based Allegiance Mining NL and Jinchuan Nickel Group Ltd sign agreement in which Jinchuan agrees to take the first 10 years worth of nickel concentrate produced (approximately 70,000 tonnes) from the Avebury Nickel Mine located in Tasmania, Australia. Production at the mine is scheduled to begin in late 2007. *    BHP reports net income rose to $6.09 billion in the six months ending June 30. This compares to $3.44 billion a year ago. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $15.25/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.95/lb *    LME nickel inventory - plus 414 tons = 6,240 tons
8-22	LME nickel ended the day at  $13.59/lb ($29,950/tonne) . *    Societe Generale dismisses rumors of a potential break-up of Anglo American saying the company is more likely a predator, not the prey of any future takeover. *    French miner Eramet wants it back - Falconbridge had rights - Inco suffering militant resistance to Goro on other end of New Caledonia - now any future of the Koniambo project lies with Xstrata. Will it move forward with construction - or offload it as too expensive of a project? *    Yieh is reporting Posco raised its price on hot and cold rolled 300 series stainless by 9.7% effective August 28th. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $14.97/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.83/lb *    LME nickel inventory - minus 330 tons - 5,826 tons
8-21	LME nickel ends the day -  up at $12.91/lb ($28,445/tonne) - please, I am just the messenger Mr Li! *    Friday, Allegheny Ludlum announced a 10% increase in stainless steel hot rolled sheet and strip prices, effective Sept 5th *    For those interested in the copper strike, here is a good article by Reuters here *    Xstrata appoints former Falconbridge Chief Operating Officer Ian Pearce to head its nickel operations *    Deutsche Bank warned Friday that high nickel prices are running the risk of forcing consumers to look at nickel substitution. It also forecast there was little risk of substantially lower nickel prices thru the remainder of 2006. *    From China's largest producer of nickel website - the Jinchuan Group - 8/18 - Mr Li Yongjun, president and chairman of the Board is quoted "LME is no longer a place for fair dealing of metals but a paradise of speculations". He warned that if the LME did not take measures to strengthen management of the market, the recent "irrational" surging in nickel prices would "impair development of downstream sectors" and "bring ill effects to the LME and speculators". Dow Jones is also reporting the company's web site is predicting prices will soon fall below $20,000/ton and quotes the site as stating "China's tightening measures will effectively lower commodity prices". I am unable to find this prediction or statement in the English section of the company website.  *    In another example of China's growth, Yieh is reporting China has bumped Japan to become the worlds largest exporter of steel in 2006. Last year - it was the sixth largest. The US is the worlds largest steel importer. *    Xstrata denies yesterdays reports it has teamed up with Rio Tinto and CVRD to takeover and break up Anglo American. *    Friday's official closing - cash - $14.97/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.88/lb *    LME nickel - plus 36 tons = 6,156 tons
8-20	*    Nickel and the LME make the NY Times here *    London's The Observer reports Anglo American may be the next takeover target here
8-18	LME nickel ends the day at $12.69/lb ($27,975/tonne). Have a nice weekend! *    Norilsk Nickel Deputy General Director Victor Sprogis released an e-mail statement today stating “Today's market volatility is due to the fact that some consumers this year cut the volumes they buy under long-term contracts and so increased their spot market purchases. We hope they'll draw lessons from it in 2007.'' Personal comment - Considering the up and down history of nickel, Victor, consumers can be forgiven for buying light in the hopes prices would have declined by now. Nickel 'will' fall someday, and while the percentage of that correction is yet to be determined, those who will have entered long term contracts, who have been burned numerous times in the past few decades, will be stuck with high priced stainless steel that they will be forced to sell at a loss to move. How do you say "screw" in Russian?   *    More on the LME action taken Wednesday to calm the market here *    Xstrata unceremoniously dumped the board of directors and CEO of Falconbridge yesterday, and put in their own people. *    Yieh reports Taiwan stainless steel producers are watching nickel prices closely and have delayed releasing new prices for September *    "Who took all the nickel?" asks the Times here *    China raises interest rate on its one year lending rate by .27% to 6.12% in an effort to slow down their economic growth *    BHP closed the world's largest copper mine, Escondida, located in Chile, today, after striking workers blocked entrance. The miners are in their 12th day of a strike, and talks have broken off. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $14.61/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.98/lb *    LME nickel inventories - minus 42 tons = 6,120 tons
8-17	LME nickel backtracked today, and after the dust settled, lost much of what it had gained yesterday, closing at $12.56/lb ($27,695/tonne). *    Article "How the big deal went bad" Golbe and Mail (how close Teck came to buying Inco) here *    Article "Nickel Falls as Acerinox Says Supply Meets Demand" by Bloomberg here *    Yesterday's intervention by the LME was meant to "head off the risk of defaults in trading by speculators" according to the Financial Times *    More on the steps taken by LME yesterday here , who states we are experiencing a "genuine material shortage" *    Worthington Industries buys Precision Specialty Metals Inc. for $33.7 million in cash. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $15.10/lb ($33,300/tonne) - 3 month buyer - $12.57/lb. *    LME nickel inventories - plus 354 tons = 6,162 tons (only 1,374 tons actually available)
8-16	LME imposes temporary backwardation limit on nickel here LME nickel ended the day at $13.15/lb ($29,000/tonne) The official cash price went well over $30,000/tonne. *    Less than 24 hours after it announced it would raise its offer, Teck Cominco backed off after being unable to raise the necessary cash it desired. Seen as the Canadian favorite, Teck's offer expires at midnight tonight and they have announced they will not extend or change their current offer. This now leaves CVRD and the silent Phelps Dodge in the hunt for Inco. *   Nickel has broken thru the $30M/tonne barrier in early morning trading. $30,000/tonne was one of those 'psychological' barriers and now that it has been topped, watch out. *    World Bank raises earlier forecast and predicts economic growth in China will hit 10.4% this year and 9.3% next year. *    Teck Cominco is back. On the day before its hostile offer for Inco expired, and just a few days after CVRD came in with a better one, Teck has increased its offer. Current offer - $17.85 billion US.   *    For those not involved in investing in metals, it is possible you might be hearing the term "selling short" on this news page in the upcoming days. Could be a potential scandal brewing at the LME. If you are confused about what that means, this page carries a simple definition (here) *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $13.25/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.25/lb *    LME nickel inventories - minus 132 tons = 5,808 tons
8-15	Teck Cominco is back in the game - more details tomorrow. Helped by a weak dollar and the strike at Voisey's Bay, nickel set another record high today, ending at $12.45/lb ($27,450/tonne) *    It appears someone is betting heavily that nickel prices are setting themselves up for a correction article here *    Inco says it continues to recommend Phelps offer, but, like Teck last week, agrees to discuss the potential for a "superior offer" with CVRD. Some analysts feel both Teck and CVRD's offer are already superior to Phelps, so we think the term "superior offer", as it is being used here, could be defined as one that insures Inco executives keep their jobs. *    Nickel could hit a new record high today. It has already climbed to match Friday's record of $27,250/ton in early trading today. *    Xstrata announces it now owns 92% of Falconbridge's shares. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $13.20/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.36/lb *    LME nickel inventory - plus 126 tons = 5,940 tons
8-14	LME nickel ended the day at $12.29/lb ($27,100/tonne) *    You may be wearing more nickel in the future - The Department of Textile Technology at PSG College of Technology, announced its scientists have developed a nickel-chrome filament that could potentially be used by the US military to warm coats, making them less bulky and restrictive in a combat situation. *    Phelps sets special shareholder meeting for 9/25/06 to vote on Inco acquisition. While some believe their current offer is less than CVRD and Teck's, it remains silent about any change to that offer. *    Bache Financial minerals strategist Angus MacMillan tells Reuters he "wouldn't be surprised to see" nickel hit $30,000/tonne in the near future. With world usage of nickel running about 3500 tonnes per day, the Reuters author notes 3600 tonnes of the 5940 tonnes in LME warehouses, is already earmarked for delivery article here *    Should hear from Teck Cominco in reference to its bid for Inco within the next few days, as its current offer expires Wednesday. *    Mineweb reports not everyone is impressed with CVRD's bid for Inco here *    Xstrata shareholders approve plan to acquisition of Falconbridge *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $13.25/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.36/lb *    LME nickel inventory - minus 564 tons = 5,814 tons
8-13	*   Ramu nickel project in Papua, New Guinea is a go, after China’s Metallurgical Construction Corp signs an agreement with that country's government. Expected to begin  construction by year end and estimated to be producing nickel by 2009. *   Couple of articles about the CVRD entry into the Inco soap opera here and here *   Mining Industry annual review of global mining performance by PricewaterhouseCoopers  Spring 2006 here
8-11	LME nickel ended the day at $12.07/lb ($26,600/tonne). Have a nice weekend! *    The world's largest producers of iron ore and pellets, Brazil's Companhia Vale do Rio Doce , better known as CVRD, makes a $15.3 billion dollar bid for Inco today. Unlike Teck, CVRD says it has not yet spoken with Inco about the offer, but would welcome the opportunity to enter discussions.   *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $12.98/lb - 3 month buyer - $12.16/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 174 tons = 6,378 tons
8-10	LME nickel came close to hitting a new record today, but when the dollar strengthened in the afternoon, it backed off and closed at $11.96lb. ($26,350/tonne) *    Teck CEO Don Lindsay told reporters in Melbourne that if nothing changes "between now and Wednesday", he felt their takeover offer for Inco would be successful. From their competitor for the Inco prize, Phelps Dodge CEO Steven Whisler immediately responded ...?? (sound of crickets in the dark).  A question - if Teck is successful in its hostile bid for Inco next week, will Inco still owe Phelps the $475,000,000 break-up fee? *    This would have been better titled "Is Phelps gambling...." here  *    Good article on the Teck-Inco takeover fight and where it stands here *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $12.66/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.89/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 246 tons = 6,204 tons
8-9	LME nickel ended the day at $11.97/lb ($26,375/tonne) *    Looks like its going to cost us more to wake up in the morning - as coffee hits a six year high on concerns the worlds second largest producer, Vietnam, isn't producing enough. Now if someone can just figure out a way to charge us for the air we breathe! *    Falconbridge concedes to Xstrata takeover and recommends shareholders take their hostile offer, while Teck tells Inco it wants to keep its takeover bid on the hostile side, advising media it "is not" and "will not" enter into any negotiation with Inco. (Can't you just feel the love?) *    US Fed does not raise interest rates yesterday. Next meeting in 6 weeks. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $12.73/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.91/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 12 tons = 5,958 tons
8-8	LME nickel ends the day at $11.70/lb ($25,800/tonne) *    For those forecasting future stainless steel prices for 2007 budgets, the Fortis Metals Monthly Report for August 2006 was released today and it has good news for nickel miners and bad news for stainless steel users. Download pdf here (pay special attention to the report's special Focus section where they address nickel in depth pgs 6-10) *    China Securities Journal publishes recommendation by National Development Reform Commission that China increment a series of small interest rate hikes. *    US Federal Reserve to announce decision at 2:15 pm EST on whether it is raising interest rates or not. *    Inco, after rejecting Teck Cominco's most recent hostile offer, did say Teck could potentially lead to a "superior offer" and has suggested the two negotiate. Teck CEO told a news briefing in Kalgoorlie, Australia that "“We've reviewed their press release and we continue to believe our offer is superior” Two questions - # Is this a  nice way of saying "screw"? #2 Is Phelps trying to back out of this deal and save face? (Doubtful as increasing their offer for Inco could potentially protect them from becoming the target of a hostile bid themselves. Maybe Inco is just sending a signal that Phelps needs to up their current offer - and soon.) *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $12.61/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.66/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 690 tons = 5,946 tons
8-7	LME nickel ends the day at $11.77/lb ($25,950/tonne) *    MEPS new forecast for stainless steel prices here *    Strike begins at Escondida's copper mine, which produces approximately 1/12 of worlds copper and is the worlds largest *    Diggers and Dealers conference starts today in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia here *    Inco recommends shareholders reject Teck's recently revised offer. *    Friday's official closing - cash - $12.61/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.50/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 180 tons = 5,256 tons
8-4	LME nickel rebounded to end the week at $11.66/lb. ($25,700/tonne) *    Eyes on US unemployment data released today, as traders look for clues on what the Fed might do when it meets next week. So far, many believe no new hikes in interest rates should be expected. (update) Weaker than expected, as it was in Germany and Canada, also. *    China's crude-steel output in the first half of 2006 jumped 18.26% from a year ago according to China Iron and Steel Association. *    Dow Jones is reporting on rumors of an "imminent" arrival of fresh nickel supplies into LME warehouses. If the 744 tonnes yesterday is it, then it was a drop in the bucket. If more is coming, I suspect it might be from Norilsk. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $12.52/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.43/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 744 tons = 5,076 tons
8-3	LME nickel fell again today, ending at $11.05/lb ($24,350/tonne) *    Lot of markets watching the conference in Beidaihe, China, where 100 economists are discussing ways to cool down that nation's economy. Some watchers are betting interest rates will have to be raised again sometime during the upcoming months. *    Wayne Fraser, a regional director of the United Steelworkers of America, tells Bloomberg, the strike at Voisey's Bay may last for months. He also advised no talks between the union and Inco are scheduled. *    Merafe Resources, partners with Xstrata, and one of the world's largest ferrochrome producers, forecasts ferrochrome prices to rise as stainless steel enters a bull market. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $12.75/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.73/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 174 tons = 4,332 tons
8-2	LME nickel ends the day at $11.59/lb. ($25,550/tonne) *    Phelps Dodge executives are said to be mulling over whether to revise their offer for Inco, since Teck Cominco raised theirs on Monday. Some of their stockholders may be wishing they were spending more of this time figuring out why they were one of the few major world mining companies last month to actually report second quarter profits "fell" from the prior year. Then again, maybe no one noticed.      *    Inco says effect of shutdown at Voisey's Bay in the short term will be minimal, although the mine was producing approximately 6,000 tons of nickel ore per day according to a Dow Jones article *    Yesterday's official closing -  cash - $12.88/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.75/lb *    LME nickel inventories - plus 30 tons = 4,158 tons
8-1	LME nickel ends the day at $11.71/lb ($25,825/tonne) *    Molybdenum - Another bull to ride? article here *    According to Platts, Merrill Lynch released a report on Monday stating nickel prices could potentially fall to the $7-$8/lb range should the Voisey's Bay strike be settled quickly. *    French miner Eramet forecasts nickel market to move closer to balanced market - or possibly a slight surplus in second half of 2006. *    The strike at Voisey's Bay has reinforced the concerns of nervous traders with dwindling inventories giving support to theories that production deficits are falling short this year of meeting a growing world demand. Any further disruption to the already strained supply chain, especially an emergency at any of the large mills where annual maintenance shutdowns have been postponed, could prove devastating to the market.  *    MEPS warns users are starting to seriously look at alternatives to 300 series stainless here *    Posco, Korea's largest and worlds fourth largest steel maker, announces the opening of its new mill in China. With a plant capacity of 600,000 tons of stainless per year, Posco now claims it is the worlds third largest stainless producer, after Spain's Acerinox S.A. and Germany's ThyssenKrup Stahl AG. It also announced a price increase on stainless steel exports. *    Yesterday's official closing - cash - $12.34/lb - 3 month buyer - $11.55/lb *    LME nickel inventories - minus 144 tons = 4,128 tons

Closing price - you may notice different sites giving different "closing" costs. I use the price LME uses, which Joanna James at the Global FX Desk graciously explained, is the settlement price for 3 months nickel after the 2nd ring close offer. LME shows on their site the closing price taken after the last kerb.

Every effort is made to provide factual information in a timely manner as a convenience to the reader. Any opinion given on this web site is just that - a mere opinion, and the author is not responsible for any action taken based off that opinion. Multiple sources are used for obtaining this info and there is no guarantee of its accuracy. Any reproduction without written permission from the author is prohibited.