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10-29 |
LME nickel ended the day and month at $6.11/lb.
For the month, nickel averaged $6.54/lb.
* China Iron and Steel Association states iron ore imports will
rise from 148 million tonnes last year to to more than 180 million tonnes
this year
* LME warehouse stock of nickel slid by 54 tonnes to total 14,142
yesterday. |
|
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10-28 |
LME nickel ended where it ended yesterday - at
$6.13/lb.
* China's Central bank announced it was raising interest rates
for the first time in 9 years. Stock markets worldwide are down, but so far
metals seems unphased.
* Scrap Magazine is quoting HSBC as predicting nickel will average
$5.24/lb in 2004 compared to $6.30/lb this year. On the other hand, in the
same report, they state "LME price volatility, however, will remain an ongoing
feature, with some expecting nickel to establish new highs before the end
of this year."
* Australian WMC Resources, world's 5th largest nickel producer,
rejects a $5.5 billion(US) takeover offer from Swiss based Xstrata. Bloomberg
identifies Xstrata Plc as the world's largest exporter of coal for power
plants. WMC shares jumped 36% after the offer was refused.
* YUSCO and Tang Eng Stainless Steel Plant announced yesterday
that although nickel has fallen in the last few weeks they work off nickel's
average cost and both announced increases in stainless effective November
1st. YUSCO also stated international demand for stainless is exceeding current
supplies. Steel prices were also announced by Taiwan mills for Novemeber
shipments. (This is contrary to what MEPS is reporting in their October report.
They say there is a degree of oversupply of stainless in Asia)
* LME nickel inventories slipped once again, falling by 132
tonnes to 14,196. |
|
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10-27 |
LME nickel rebounded today, ending at $6.13/lb.
Market appears to be attempting to find a direction with weary trader eying
support harder than resistance. Is it possible we could be at $5/lb by Christmas?
Stay tuned.
* Article you investors might find interesting
here
* Nickel inventories fell again yesterday by another 198 tonnes
to 14,398. |
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10-26
 |
Nickel prices fell sharply, ending the day at
$5.79/lb.
* Posco of Korea announced stainless steel price increases of
3.9-5.7% effective 10/27.
* Falconbridge lowers their forecasted nickel prediction for
2004 to only 5M ton deficit and for 2005 to a 9M ton deficit. Expect world
nickel production to increase by 55M tons next year. Falconbridge is also
analyzing whether to give the go ahea to their New Caledonia Koniambo project.
With production at Inco's Voisey Bay to begin in 2006 and Inco's Goro mine
to being producing nickel in 2008, the current deficit market could be a
glut market later this decade.
* LME nickel inventories fell below 15M tonnes yesterday with
a drop of 504 tonnes to total 14,526. Nickel pricing is in the $5.90/lb range
this AM. |
|
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10-25 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.02/lb.
* Norilsk Nickel announces its Severny-Gluboky mine will begin
operation November 1st. Norilsk is hoping this new mine will increase company
nickel production by up to 30% by 2010.
* International Monetary Fund predicts worldwide GDP to expand
4.3% compared to 5% this year.
* Falconbridge, the world's third largest nickel producer, announced
Friday its profits had soared to $155 million in the third quarter of 2004,
compared to $19 million last year. Falconbridge is publically traded but
is 59% owned by Norando, which is currently negotiating a $7 billion sale
to China MinMetals.
* Nickel inventories at LME dropped 120 tonnes on Friday, nearing
15M tonnes = 15,030 total. |
|
|
10-22 |
LME nickel ended Friday at $6.09/lb
* LME nickel inventories fell by a mere 6 tonnes Thursday. |
|
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10-21 |
LME nickel ended the day up at $6.22/lb.
* Nickel inventories in LME warehouses fell again yesterday
by 30 tonnes, for a total of 15,156 tonnes. |
|
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10-20 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.02/lb.
* 3rd quarter financial results.....
US steel maker Allegheny Technologies net income of $8.6 million compared
to a loss of 28.8 million this time last year
Metals USA - net income of $31.8 million compared to net loss of $2.8 million
last year
Universal Stainless - net income of $2.7 million compared to net loss of
$121,000 last year
* Steel company stocks worldwide fell after US firm Steel Dynamics
made comment Monday that they thought steel prices would "soften somewhat"
in the fourth quarter of 2004.
* Posco of South Korea announces prices increases on stainlesss
effective Oct 27th.
* Inco makes its case for sustained high nickel prices thru
2006 -
(interesting
reading here)
* Massive Goro project go ahead gets nod from Inco after being
suspended in Dec 2002. Initial production from this New Caledonia mine -
Sept 2007.
* Inco forecasts its total nickel production for 2004 will be
505-510 million tonnes - its highest annual production since 1974.
* LME nickel inventories slipped another 138 tonnes yesterday,
to total 15,186 on hand. |
|
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10-19 |
Nickel on the LME took another turn down, ending the day at
$6.03/lb.
* Inco announced it made $148 million dollar net earnings
in the 3rd quarter of 2004, compared to a net loss of $23 million this time
last year. Sales were double at $1.03 billion. Inco is expected to announce
later today that it will proceed with its Goro project in New Caledonia.
* Purchasing.com is reporting iron producers face higher
prices for coking coal next year, as the worldwide supply shortage
continues.
* Reminder from May 2004 report by the Asian Development Bank
""[China] is the world's biggest consumer of copper, tin, zinc, platinum,
steel and iron ore; second biggest of aluminum and lead; third largest of
nickel... It is now the world's second-largest oil consumer...." Inco is
predicting China will be the #1 consumer for nickel by 2005.
* Yieh is reporting even though nickel has come down, stainless
prices will go up in Asia in November.
* The Financial Express of India reported Monday that Asian
shift to low nickel 200 series stainless and no nickel 400 series stainless
is increasing at a dramatic pace, at teh expense of high nickel 300 series
austenitic stainless. "This is most notable in Asia, where the austenitic
ratio may fall to 60% in 2004, from above 70% in 2001".
* Nickel inventories in LME warehouses slipped another 18 tonnes
yesterday to 15,324. |
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10-18 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.10/lb.
* Molybdenum went up again Friday - now $21.00/lb.
* Greenspan Friday on oil prices "So far this year, the rise
in the value of imported oil--essentially a tax on U.S. residents--has amounted
to about three-quarters of one percent of gross domestic product."
* Yieh.com is reporting nickel consumption has increased 2.9%
so far this year in China, while stainless steel production has increased
6.9%. The good news for nickel producers is this may reflect a depletion
of nickel stockpiles that have been used. The very bad news for nickel producers
is this also reflects the increased production of 200 series stainless, which
contains less nickel.
* Nickel prices are down in early morning trading, as funds
further liquidate, possibly led by nervousness over oil hitting $55/barrel
this AM.
* LME nickel inventories fell by a mere 6 tonnes on Firday to
sit at 15,342. |
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10-15 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.20/lb.
* Fairfax Digital published an article today quoting Hu Wei
of China's largest copper refinery, Jiangxi Copper, as saying don't count
China off and that his country's demand "cannot be satisfied by current tight
supply". The metals market tumbled on Wednesday after figures were released
that showed China's copper usage fell 21% this July compared to last year.
This would agree with WMC Resources Chief Executive Andrew Michelmore's statement
that nickel consumption in China could increase by as much as 17% next year.
* The Toronto Star published an article today stating Inco's
chairman Scott Hand told investors metal prices will remain strong throughout
2005. This came a day after Inco's stock was downgraded by Prudential Financial.
Mr Hand also hinted that the Goro Project in New Caledonia may get the official
go ahead next week. If this is true, this mine is expected to produce 60,000
tonnes of nickel a year, but not until mid 2007. Inco is also working on
the Voisey's Bay project in Labrador, which is expected to start producing
nickel in 2006.
* New computer virus alert
(here)
* Nickel is up in early trading in London, but market still
vulnerable.
* Inventories of nickel in LME warehouses fell by 42 tonnes
to 15,348 yesterday. |
|
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10-14 |
LME nickel ended the day down at $6.15/lb.
* Nickel prices, along with the other metals traded on the
London Metal Exchange, all seem to be looking for a direction this morning
after yesterday's huge sell-off. Nickel has see sawed all morning with little
movement either way.
* LME nickel inventories gained 24 tonnes yesterday for a total
of 15,390 on hand. |
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10-13 |
The Globe and Mail is reporting today's drop in nickel is its worst
single day drop since January 1988.
Fund liquidation took on new meaning on the London Metal Exchange as all
metals plunged. One of the most watched metals of recent, copper fell 9.8%,
with most other metals loosing less. However, nickel led the loss percentage
wise at a loss of 13%, ending the day at $6.22/lb.
* To give you an idea of what has happened on the LME this
morning, Man Metals daily report states..."Brent (oil) prices opened steadier
in London this morning, but perhaps after noting the 'carnage' in metals,
started to sell off." (Oil bucked the metals trend and after dropping
to $51+ it ended the day at $53.64/barrel)
* The International Stainless Steel Forum is predicting a growth
rate in stainless steel production worldwide to increase by 6.8% in 2004,
5.9% in 2005 and 5% for 2006. For further details visit
www.worldstainless.org.
* Unconfirmed report that nickel has dived this morning and
nearing $6/lb on the London Metal Exchange. If true, this would mean funds
are bailing out.
* Nickel inventories held by the LME fell another 396 tonnes
yesterday to total 15,366 tonnes. |
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10-12 |
LME nickel ended down for the day at
$7.13/lb.
* Scrap Magazine is quoting INSG as predicting a deficit of
10M tonnes of nickel this year and a balanced market next year of 1.32 million
tons produced and consumed.
* World's largest producer of ferrochrome is asking shareholders
to allow it to change its name from SA Chrome to Merafe Resources
* So far this morning everything but oil is down. Oil is selling
over $54 barrel and all LME metals are selling lower at mid-day.
Commentary only - It seems to be evident that recent hikes in nickel
prices are being driven by speculation on the part of fund investment and
not justified by market fundamentals. What is unclear, is "if", or when the
fund markets take their profits and bail out, where will nickel prices settle
in at. It is also becoming likely, that even those nickel producers that
have the most to gain by these high prices, are becoming increasingly nervous
about the increased use of low nickel stainless, primarily in China. While
the stock holders look to the quick profits, the people responsible for long
term profitability of a mining company, are probably beginning to get very
nervous about the long term implications of these high prices.
* LME nickel inventories fell by 66 tonnes yesterday for a
total of 15,762 tones stored in LME warehouses. |
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10-11 |
My source for nickel closing is closed for Columbus Day, but prices fell
into the $7.30-$7.40's range. A secondary source, which publishes the 7:15
pm closing price shows $7.32/lb.
* Anton Berlin, Norilsk Nickel's head of market analysis
and development, told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview today that the
supply/demand balance of worldwide nickel is nearing a balance and that the
high price of nickel is unjustified and due to speculative activity.
(article
here from futuresource.com)
* London Metal Exchange has published a Power Point
presentation of their metals seminar on nickel and other traded metals -
interesting!
(here)
* Bloomberg is quoting a Societe Generale Commodities
Research report that says historically high LME metal prices will continue
into 2005, although the growth rate in metals consumption will slip to 5.5%
next year. The report predicts prices will fall approximately 5% from their
current levels. To see the report,
visit
(this page), then click base metals under Economic Research/Periodicals
* The Economist Global Agenda published an article, quoted
on Economist.com, that quoted one analyst as stating "lemmings and cliff"
comes to mind in reference to some metals pricing.
(article
here)
* This could be big news for investors in the future
- if it works out
(article
here)
* Some traders expressing concern that record high oil prices
could start affecting metals prices adversely.
* Molybdenum pricing jumped to $19.95/lb Friday. 316 stainless
steel users will be affected.
* POSCO, the world's fifth largest steelmaker, announces 12%
increase on domestic steel plate.
* Nickel inventories gained 48 tonnes on Friday - now at 15,828
tonnes |
|
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10-8 |
LME nickel ended the day, up once again, at
$7.53/lb.
* Copper prices hit a 16 year high in early morning trading
today, while aluminum hit its highest since August 1995 yesterday.
* Inventories of nickel in LME warehouses fell 420 tonnes yesterday
to 15,780 tonnes. |
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10-7 |
LME nickel ended the day at $7.45/lb.
* One area not hurting for scrap, or scrap scavengers, right now is
Florida. Scrap yards in many Floridian towns are opened extended hours. To
give you an example of what aluminum scrap is worth, a single pool enclosure
can bring around $400. Akron, Ohio is noticing manhole covers disappearing
faster than usual. A 90 lb manhole cover is worth about $2 in scrap, but
$78 to replace. Malaysia is reporting railway traffic fittings being stolen
from rail lines, causing disruption in rail service.
* PT International Nickel Indonesia announces plans to build $150
million dollar hydroelectric dam to help increase production of local mine.
Bloomberg article states the additional power, due for completion in 2009,
will also lower the cost of production by 7% - which
is currently running between $1.65 and $1.75 per
pound.
* Yieh is reporting scrap prices in Taiwan are rising and have nearly
hit record high's seen in March.
* LME nickel inventories dropped by 66 tonnes yesterday. |
|
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10-6 |
LME nickel closed over the $16M/tonne mark, ending the day at
$7.30/lb.
* Interesting article about outlook of nickel in China -
here
* Oil hits new record high over $52/barrel on speculation of
shortage. Qatar's oil minister told China Daily on 9/27 that there is no
shortage of oil and the market prices are being driven by speculators. (Sounds
a little like the nickel market) It is also worth noting a statement made
by Gina Martin, an economist with Wachovia Corp, to a Bloomberg reporter
yesterday. She stated the increase in oil prices will cut 1 to 1.5% from
the US GDP over the next 3 to 4 quarters as the higher prices work their
way through the system.
* Copper pricing nearing 9 year highs.
* Yieh reports many stainless steel mills are applying surcharges
effective date of delivery, instead of date of order.
* LME inventories gained again yesterday, adding another 72
tonnes for a total of 16,266. |
|
|
10-5 |
LME nickel closed at $7.16/lb.
* Another factor in nickel prices rising -
article
here
* Scrap Magazine is quoting 2 predictions for the upcoming nickel
market - Macquarie Bank has lowered its deficit prediction for 2004 to 21,000
tonnes and only 10M tonnes for 2005, with an LME cash average prediction
of $6.15 this year and $6.25 next year. Goldman Sachs JB Were is predicting
a LME cash average of $6.35 for the remainder of 2004.
* LME nickel inventory at 16,194 this AM, which would mean an
increase in stock of 1,266 tonnes or a gain of 8% yesterday. |
|
|
10-4 |
LME nickel ends the day at $7.08/lb.
* Molybdenum at $18.87/lb. A little over $5/lb this time last year.
* Traders advise nickel seriously over-bought after Thursday's jump
by nearly $1600/tonne and expect downward adjustment in price soon.
* 300 series stainless steel hits new record high in Europe after
a 3% hike in the surcharge takes affect for October.
* LME inventories took a big jump on Friday, gaining 606 tonnes, or
4%. |
|
|
10-1 |
LME nickel ended the day at $7.08/lb.
* Reuters is reporting Cuban nickel mines have not been affected
by the energy crisis the country is experiencing. According to the Reuters
article, Cuba is the 4th largest nickel producing country in the world and
in 2000, nickel became that country's biggest export earner. Cuba has 3 nickel
mines, 2 operated and operated by the state with a third, run by the state
in partnership with Sherritt International of Canada.
* In an article yesterday, the Asia Pulse is quoting industry
analysts who believe nickel demand in China will increase from 144,500 tons
to 152,000 tons in 2005. This would reflect a 7% increase and a slowdown
from the average annual growth of 12-13% seen over the past decade. At present
China's demand for stainless is nearly double its output. By 2006, the output
should exceed demand and the country is expected to become a world net
exporter.
* In the only good news we can find for stainless steel users,
South African ferrochrome producers will keep prices during the final quarter
of 2004, the same as Quarter 3, which is a little over $.70 per pound.
* Bloomberg is reporting that "BHP Billiton, the world's biggest
miner, is stating that Chinese buyers will take more than half the nickel
from its $1.4 billion expansion in
Australia". Article
here.
* Australia's largest steelmaker, Blue Scope Steel, - Chief
Executive Kirby Adams told a New York investment conference he is expecting
steel prices to remain strong thru 2005 according to a Reuters article.
* Carpenter Technology announced Wednesday increases prices
in stainless steel wire and rod of 5-7%, and 6-8% on sheet and strip.
* LME nickel gained 210 tonnes Thursday to sit at 14,322 tonnes
total. Pricing is erratic this AM, beginning over $7, falling back under
and then re-climbing over. |
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![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/nickel-d.gif) |
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This live chart does not follow actual LME prices but gives a good indication
of current market activity. |
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Average September 2004 LME nickel price - $6.04/lb
Average October 2003 LME nickel price - $5.01/lb
Allegheny Ludlum Surcharges for September
|
|
Nickel |
Chrome |
Moly |
Iron |
2003
2004 |
304 |
.2154
.404 |
.0259
.0788 |
NA |
0
.0788 |
2003
2004 |
316 |
.2692
.5049 |
.023
.0701 |
.0502
.3405 |
0
.0641 |
arrow denotes price comparison to prior month
courtesy
Allegheny
Ludlum
Daily market prices are courtesy London Metal Exchange.
Closing price - you may notice different sites giving different "closing"
costs. We use the price LME uses, which Joanna James at the Global FX Desk
graciously explained, is the settlement price after the 2nd ring close offer.
Global shows on their site the closing price taken after the last kerb. For
their daily chart,
visit
here.
Every effort is made to provide factual information in a timely manner
as a convenience to the reader. Any opinion given on this web site is just
that - a mere opinion, and the author is not responsible for any action taken
based off that opinion. Multiple sources are used for obtaining this info
and there is no guarantee of its accuracy. Any reproduction without
written permission from the author is prohibited. |