|
|
9-30 |
LME nickel closed at $6.85/lb, breaking the
$15M/tonne barrier once again. And for those of you who might show it went
higher - we heard it hit way over $7/lb in final kerb trading (un-confirmed).
* In a report issued Monday, Australia's Westpac Banking
Corp predicted nickel prices for 2005 would average $5.29/lb.
* Copper trading went over $1.42/lb today which is the
highest it has been since Aug 1995. Codelco, the largest producer in the
world, advised it will exhaust its stockpile by the end of December. This
could adversely affect molybdenum, as it is a by-product of copper mining.
Molybdenum is a key ingredient of 316 stainless steel.
* Australasian Investment Review is reporting that Goldman
Sachs commodity experts have just returned from an eight day tour of China
and found little evidence of a decline in nickel usage. The article also
states "Nickel demand should now continue to grow as BoaSteel's stainless
steel capacity expans further from .9 million tonnes in 2004 to 1.8 million
tonnes in 2005".
(complete
article here)
* Copper hit 7 month high's yesterday, which is having a
psycholgical effect on nickel trading.
* SANUM has rejected Angloplat's most recent offer. Forbes
advises union is already on strike at Impala Platinum Holdings and 20M were
threatening to walk from Ango Platinum.
* YUSCO announced increases in stainless steel wire prices
yesterday. YUSCO is the largest stainless steel mill in Taiwan and Southeast
Asia.
* LME nickel gained 642 tonnes yesterday, a gain in inventories
of nearly 5%. Now sitting at 14,112. |
|
|
9-29 |
LME nickel closed at $6.65/lb.
* Nickel prices shot up again this morning on reports of an
explosion at a Japanese owned nickel production plant in the Philippines.
An official from Sumitomo Metal denied the claim and said repairs were underway
and there would be no disruption in plans to begin producing nickel later
this year. In response, LME nickel prices have calmed since.
* Yesterday, Man Metals reported South Africa's National Union
of Mineworkers had issued a 48 hour strike notice to Angloplat and Implats.
This morning SABC News is reporting the union has temporarily suspended strike
plans. The two mines are the world's largest producers of platinum, but mine
a significant amount of nickel also. With inventory levels of nickel so tight,
any word of possible disruption in the supply chain, has and will send prices
up.
* Late sale nickel prices last evening, this morning prices
have rebounded.
* LME inventories returned to Friday's level of 13,470 tonnes. |
|
|
9-28
 |
LME nickel ends todays trading at
$6.66/lb.
* New e-mail virus discovered today - From : (spoofed address)
Subject : Re:, Re: Hello, Re: Thank you!, Re: Thanks :), Re: Hi, Body Text:
:) or :))
* Oil is selling over $50 barrel this morning.
* Noranda and China's MinMetals have announced they have entered
into negotiations concerning a proposal from MinMetals to acquire 100% of
Noranda shares. Noranda owns 58.9% of Falconbridge, the world's 3rd largest
producer of nickel.
* Nickel inventories in LME warehouses are at 13,482 tonnes. |
|
World's 5 largest nickel producing nation's in 2003 - Russia, Australia,
Canada, Indonesia, and New Caledonia
|
9-27 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.63/lb.
* Crude oil closed at $49.62/barrel today, just shy of $50.
* Molybdenum is up again - $18.40/lb.
* Yieh is reporting Chinese stainless market entering a peak season
and prices still on the rise due to higher nickel prices. They also expect
further increases on stainless sheet as supplies tighten.
* Inventories gained 324 tonnes on Friday to sit at 13,470 tonnes.
This could put some downward pressure on the market today.
* LME nickel ended Friday at $6.70/lb. |
|
|
9-24 |
Next update, Monday 9/27 |
|
|
9-23 |
LME nickel ended the day at $6.53/lb. I am unable
to find anything to account for the huge increase over the last 2 days.
Fundamentals do not seem to support this sudden rise in nickel prices.
* Molybdenum oxide still selling at $18/lb, prices up 700% since 2001.
316 stainless steel users are feeling this increase.
* Nickel inventories in the LME warehouses gained 372 tonnes yesterday
to sit at 13,146 tonnes total. |
|
|
9-22 |
Nickel jumps over the $14M/tonne mark again today, closing at
$6.41/lb.
* Found a price forecast on the net by SG dated 9/13 in which
they predict nickel will average $5.64/lb for the last quarter of 2004, $5.40/lb
for the 1st quarter of next year, $5.15/lb for the second, $4.90/lb for the
third, and $4.55/lb for the last quarter of 2005. They also state "Given
the physical tightness in most markets, there remains considerable upside
risks to our price forecasts. On the other hand, slowing momentum brings
with it growing downside risks..... These risks are finely balanced." Societe
Generale is a member of the London Metal Exchange and highly respected for
their analysis of the base metal market.
* US dollar hit a one month low overnight but has regained
some this morning.
* Australasian Investment Review is quoting GSJBW as predicting
nickel could take a big bounce before the end of the year.
* Yieh is reporting stainless steel prices in China continue to
rise.
* Early morning nickel prices are way up, with traders seemingly unphased
by yesterday's Fed decision to raise the interest rate prime by 1/4 of 1%.
* LME nickel inventories lost another 102 tonnes yesterday, to sit
at 12,774. |
|
|
9-21 |
LME nickel closed at $6.09/lb.
Next update 9/22 - author on road today
* LME inventories of nickel fell by another 294 tonnes to slip
back below 13M tonnes. |
|
|
9-20 |
LME nickel ended the day at $5.84/lb.
* Scrap Magazine is quoting Societe Generale's prediciton for
nickel prices - $5.65/lb for the fourth quarter of 2004 and $6.05/lb for
the 2004 yearly average. They also show Morgan Stanley forecasts a $6.50/lb
average for the 4th quarter (up from their earlier prediciton of $6/lb),
while Goldman Sachs JB is forecasting $6.35/lb during the same period.
* Reuters is reporting Falconbridge announced they have the
"potential" of expanding their current operations and shipping an additional
60M tonnes of nickel over the next few years. Man Metals is reporting
Falconbridge will ship 100M tonnes this year compared to 103M tonnes last
year.
* Yahoo Finance is reporting Carpenter Technology raised prices
on all grades of stainless by 10% today for October shipments.
* Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE)
states exports of nickel from that country are predicted to rise by 6% in
2004 due to higher output from new and existing mines. Thanks to higher prices,
the value of total exports could be as high as $3.8 billion dollars (23%
gain over 2003).
* Federal Reserve expected to raise US interest rates 1/4 of
1% tomorrow.
* Nickel inventories on the LME fell another 174 tonnes Friday. |
|
|
9-17 |
Profit taking struck and drove nickel down today - ending the week at
$5.86/lb.
* Steel users - AK Steel raises surcharge on steel products
for October shipments by 11%.
* Article in Toronto Star about Falconbridge-Sudbury / projecting
cost of nickel production at this mine to be $1.50/lb by 2010 - extremely
low for industry -
article
here (link may be dead within a few days)
* For those long term investors (and users of stainless steel),
here is an interesting article about a speech made by Inco president Peter
Jones to a conference in Hong Kong.
Read
here
* Tally Metals, a subsidiary of Carpenter Technology, announced
Tuesday 10% price increase on all stainless products for October.
* Yieh is reporting China will import nearly 200 million tons
of steel this year. Largest exporting vendor nations - Australia, India and
Brazil.
* Nickel inventories fell by 162 tonnes yesterday, with stock
now showing 13,344 tonnes. |
|
|
9-16 |
Nickel ended the day at $6.11/lb.
* LME inventories yesterday were at 13,506 tonnes, down from
Monday. Trading this morning is slightly up after going up by over 4% yesterday. |
|
|
9-15 |
LME nickel climbs for a second day, closing at
$5.92/lb.
* Yieh is reporting hot rolled stainless prices have risen in
the past few weeks in China due to shortage in supply.
* LME site is not yet showing yesterday's figures on inventory. |
|
|
9-14 |
LME nickel closes at $5.72/lb.
* Nickel magazine is reporting the Bank of Greece issued an
Olympic commerative coin in May of this year that used 100 tonnes of
nickel.
* LME nickel inventories dropped by 54 tonnes yesterday, breaking
a streak of daily gains. |
9-13 |
LME nickel closed the day at $5.56/lb.
* Canadian's will pay more for steel and stainless fasteners
imported from China and Taiwan, courtesy of a dumping complaint filed by
Canadian manufacturer Leland Industries.
Click
here for official notification.
And
here.
* Steel only - CBS Market Watch is reporting the world's
largest steel producer in the world has plans to hike steel prices 20% in
the early months of 2005. We dont follow the steel market closely but
there are some mixed signals coming out that won't help you make long term
purchases. While we are hearing a lot about speculation about steel prices
possibly coming down in 2005, there are some reports that you might find
interesting. Bloomberg reported on the 13th, "A clear theme is emerging across
China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan of capacity constraint with demand exceeding
supply in all regions,'' said Matthew Reynolds and Chris Drew, analysts at
UBS in Sydney, in a report to clients. "This should help sustain (steel)
price levels at or above current levels for the remainder of the year and
through most of 2005.'' Yieh Corp in Taiwan reported on the 9th of this month,
that steel sales to the US had increased 4 fold since last year, thanks to
high prices and a drop in exports to China.
* Chinese production jumped in August, fueling speculation on
interest rate hikes. Voice of America casts doubt on China's attempt to slow
down the economy being successful.
* 2 Japanese steel mills suffered major damage from Typhoon
Son-Da. Expected down time - at least 30 days
* LME inventories grew another 228 tonnes Friday, to put toal
stock at nearly 14M tonnes (13,902) |
|
|
9-10 |
Nickel found its footing in the second ring and finished at
$5.57/lb.
* Asia Pulse-Beijing published an article today with the headline
"China's Stainless Steel Market Shows Signs of Rebounding". The article is
here
* LME nickel is trading lightly this morning and seems to looking
for a direction to trade in. Yesterday's after kerb trading ended at
$12,000/tonne ($5.44/lb). Inventories increased once again yesterday, gaining
288 tonnes to show 13,674 tonnes. |
|
|
9-9 |
LME nickel ended the day at $5.46/lb. Still
a ways to go to match the low price of 2004 of $4.79/lb on May 17th, but
the bears seem to be in control of the nickel market.
* Yieh is reporting China, Japan and Korea have all raised cold
roll stainless sheet prices this week and China inventories are very low.
* Yieh is also reporting China will be the world's largest nickel
consumer by 2008. China is already the world's largest consumer of stainless
steel, consuming more than the United States and Japan combined.
* Nickel prices opened lower this morning, trading at $5.51/lb.
Yesterday's LME inventory of nickel grew another 156 tonnes. |
|
|
9-8 |
LME nickel ends the day at $5.61/lb.
* Calcutta, India "The Telegraph" - over 10,000 manhole covers
have been stolen by scrap thieves over the last 2 months.
Mostar, Bosnia - "The Pakistan Daily Times" - 40 foot
iron bridge that survived 3 wars including Balkans War, disappears overnight,
stolen by scrap thieves.
* Recent increases in LME nickel inventory has put downward pressure
on nickel prices, but any unforseen disruption in supply will drive prices
upward.
* Demand for lower nickel content 201 series stainless steel continues
to grow in China as consumers look for alternatives to the higher priced
nickel. This has been a major concern for some nickel producers as Chinese
demand has now reached nearly 80,000 metric tonnes per month. (201
replaces much of the nickel content of stainless with manganese. While making
up only 8-10% of 304 stainless, nickel is responsible for around 60% of the
total end cost and has been responsible for most of the major fluxuations
in stainless prices over the last few decades.)
* Minara Resources, Australia' second largest producer of nickel,
announced yesterday that it will probably be able to avoid a second plant
shutdown this year. Earlier, concerns over pipe corrosion had led company
officials to announce an emergency shutdown may be necesary.
* LMe inventories gained 288 tonnes yesterday. |
|
|
9-7 |
LME nickel ended the day at $5.64/lb in a day
that saw the bulls trying to take the market up, but the bears came out
ahead...barely.
* Canadian stainless steel fastener users should keep an eye
on the
Canadian
Border Service Agency this week, which is expected to release a preliminary
decision by Friday on possible import tariffs on stainless fasteners from
China and Taiwan.
* Both Man Metals and Sucden show support for nickel at $5.35/lb
with major support at $4.76/lb and resistance at $5.89/lb. The Relative Strength
Index for nickel is shown by Mann Metals to be 35. (Rule of Thumb - Anything
below 30 implies an oversold market, while above 70 suggests an overbought
market).
* Scrap Magazine is reporting SG is now lowering their nickel
deficit prediction for the year, thanks in part due to increased scrap
consumption, and feels we will see nickel prices lower thru the remaing part
of 2004. Barclays Capital, though, remains bullish, and predicts $6.24/lb
for the average price this year.
* GFMS Metals Consulting predicts annual price of nickel for
year will be $6.03/lb.
* Nickel inventories on the LME surged Monday, gaining 684 tonnes
to sit at 12,948 tonnes, having added enough Friday to roll over 12M tonnes.
These straight gains in inventories should help alleviate some of the deficit
concerns. |
|
|
9-3 |
LME nickel ends the day at $5.67/lb.
* According to a Reuters report - Jinchuan Nonferrous Metals,
China's largest nickel producer, cut its price of nickel by 3% Monday, hoping
to encourage a continuation in demand which has increased in the past month.
Import nickel prices were about 5% higher. China gets about 40% of its nickel
from the international market. Traders told Reuters there is about 800 tonnes
of nickel sitting in warehouses that cant be sold because of the price difference
between domestic and import nickel. Stainless prices, however, rose again
in China.
* Inventories in LME warehouses increased another 186 tonnes
nearing the 12M tonnes mark, the healthiest inventories have looked in 4
months. Prices are down so far this morning. Sucden shows support at
$5.45/lb, with resistance at $5.89/lb. |
|
|
9-2 |
LME nickel ended down for the day at
$5.75/lb.
* Nickel inventories on the LME gained by another 168 tonnes yesterday
to total 11,760 tonnes. Evening sales were up and this morning the price
of nickel is back down to yesterday's close. |
|
|
9-1 |
Nickel trading broke through resistance at $5.80/lb ending today at
$5.82/lb. After second ring kerb selling was up
even higher.
* In our periodic updates of worldwide metals theft, we came
across an interesting article in Israel about the rash of thefts they are
experiencing. From irrigation piping to 80 tons of steel cans, to $200M worth
of steel sheet, to thieves using a crane to raise the roof off a warehouse
so they could steal high dollar equipment for scrap inside. Public
Works engineer Asher Segal told Haaretz News that replacement traffic signs
are stolen as fast as they are put up and plastic replacements are destroyed
by angry thieves. He told Haaretz "They are gradually stealing the whole
country."
* Stock market ended down today, in a small part due to a rumored
terrorist attack in Washington, DC. The "attack" turned out to be
an accidental release of tear gas in a restaurant when horse playing youth
accidentally set off a self defense necklace worn by another member of the
group. D.C. emergency workers, on guard for any possible terrorist activity,
responded with 2 dozen ambulances and set up a triage unit in a nearby park.
Nearly 150 people were checked to ensure no trace of possible chemical attack
was present.
* LME nickel inventories gained another 90 tonnes Tuesday to
sit at 11,592 tonnes. Prices are slightly up in early morning trading. |
|
|
|
Daily market prices are courtesy London Metal Exchange. |
Average August 2004 LME nickel price - $6.23/lb
Average September 2003 LME nickel price - $4.52/lb
Allegheny Ludlum Surcharges for September
|
|
Nickel |
Chrome |
Moly |
Iron |
2003
2004 |
304 |
.1913
.4626 |
.0243
.078 |
NA |
0
.0659 |
2003
2004 |
316 |
.2391
.5782 |
.0216
.0694 |
.0502
.2738 |
0
.0641 |
arrow denotes price comparison to prior month
courtesy
Allegheny
Ludlum
Closing price - you may notice different sites giving different "closing"
costs. We use the price LME uses, which Joanna James at the Global FX Desk
graciously explained, is the settlement price after the 2nd ring close offer.
Global shows on their site the closing price taken after the last kerb. For
their daily chart,
visit
here.
Every effort is made to provide factual information in a timely manner
as a convenience to the reader. Any opinion given on this web site is just
that - a mere opinion, and the author is not responsible for any action taken
based off that opinion, including long range forecasts. Multiple sources
are used for obtaining this info and there is no guarantee of its accuracy.
Any reproduction without written permission from the author is
prohibited. |