1/3
- Nickel Price $
3.39/lb
1/8 - NRC officials downplay incident but industry
experts admit it was US' closest brush with nuclear disaster
since Three Mile Island. In March 2002, at Davis-Besse
nuclear power plant near Toledo, OH, it
was discovered boric acid in pressurized cooling water had
eaten thru a 6" thick steel lid and was being contained only by
a 3/8" thick stainless steel lid .
1/10 - Nickel Price $
3.61/lb
1/14 - First news of potential strike talks at Norilsk
Nickel in Russia, worlds largest nickel producer
1/17 - Nickel Price
$ 3.61/lb
1/24 - Nickel Price $
3.90/lb
1/31 - Nickel Price $
3.70/lb
2/6 - Union leaders at Norilsk recommend
strike
2/7 - Nickel Price
$ 3.81/lb
2/10 - Norilsk Nickel will meet with all employee's for
March 12 to discuss strike possibility
2/10 - USA stainless imports fell 26% in 2002
2/10 - Union leaders at Norilsk join hunger strike
after failing to reach agreement with management
2/11 - Division of Norilsk
workers vote not to strike
2/12 - NASA officials report corrosion being looked at as potential
cause of shuttle disaster
2/14 - Nickel Price $
3.82/lb
2/17 - Another division of Norilsk workers vote not
to strike but agree to attend strike talks in March
2/18 - Labor contracts at Inco, Ltd
scheduled to begin in March. Current contract expires
May 2003.
2/19 - Producer profits suffering - raw material costs
increasing but soft market causing hesitation in increasing stainless costs.
Surcharges on 304 flat products, at $230 per tone in December are
presently at $278 and predicted to be at $315 by March.
.
2/20 - Prices on nickel expected to stay high
for 2003 according to experts. While consumption is
expected to increase slightly over 2002 (grew 4.7% in 2002),production
capacities have not grown as fast (only grew 2.3% in 2002).
Other factors include low scrap inventories and record low world inventories
(6.6 weeks consumption). Compounding market uncertainties include
strike talks at Norilsk nickel plant, upcoming labor negotiations
at Inco Ltd, Iraqi war potential, and strong demand in China. .
2/21 - Nickle Price $
3.90/lb
2/21
-
Norilsk union leaders end hunger strike
2/21 - European Union
anti-dumping duty of 74.7% against Far East stainless
steel fastener manufacturers since 1999, expires today -
negative impact expected on US importers
2/24 - LME traders near the $9000/tone barrier
on nickel ($4.08/lb)
2/25 - LME nickel closes over $9000/tone
for first time in 3 yearS
2/25 - Labor negotiations with the union at Inco
Ltd, largest nickel producer in the western
world, will begin April 7th
According
to the International Nickel Study Group
website, it is estimated 1/4 of all nickel used in
stainless steel is recycled nickel. USGS
estimates Cuba maintains over 38.3% of earth's nickel
reserves, while Russia with 14% and Canada with 13.2% follow.
|
2/27 -
Large supplier of stainless steel fasteners to distributors
warns substantial price increases
possible in near future. Inventory levels are good but
if distributors panic buy, it could feed on itself.
2/28 - Nickle Price $
3.96/lb
2/28 -
Norilsk - CEO Mikhail Prokhorov, Russia's
only billionaire bachelor, infuriates striking union leaders
when he reports his annual income as $450 rubles ($14)
a month. Known for throwing lavish parties on the French
Riviera, Forbes ranks 37 year old Prokhorov as the world's 256th
richest person
3/5 - LME traders cant regain $9000
level as US mfg exports strengthen and worldwide
inventories increase by 348 tone - close at
$3.98/lb
3/10
- LME nickel closes
at $3.83/lb
3/12
- Norilsk Nickel announced today that
delegates representing their 60M workers voted 412 against,
1 for, and 36 abstained on a vote to strike
3/12 - LME nickel continues to fall - down 10.5% from end of February
high - inventories increasing on weaker demand for stainless
and Norilsk union voting not to strike - good news for stainless
3/14 - LME nickel continues to slide over fears about Iraqi war potential
closes at $3.66/lb
3/17
- Inco Ltd, the largest producer of nickel in the Western Hemisphere,
and due to begin negotiations with its unions in April, revealed large pay
raises for its executives in 2002, after the company lost 1.5 billion US
dollars. CEO Scott Hand received a 13% raise to $1.24 million, while president
Peter Jones received a 23% increase to $915,000. Both received additional
stock options. Company officials also announced lower than anticipated
earnings for the first quarter of 2003, even with nickel prices up 25%
this year.
3/24 - Norilsk released 10M tones that was being held
as bank collateral. This could drive nickel prices downwards, as
we predicted in January, although experts doubt
significantly. Nickel closed
at $3.72/lb on Friday. With Norilsk
release and market nervousness after US met its stiffest
resistance to date in Iraq Sunday, markets are unstable.
3/26 - LME nickel closes
at $3.67/lb...
3/28
- Molybdenum pricing rises 20% during March - 316 Stainless
prices expected to follow |
Second
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3/31
- With nickel prices so high, numerous mines reporting record
shipments
3/31 - LME advises nickel trading "erratic". Closes
at $3.51/lb
3/31 - Chicago Purchasing Management Association monthly survey
shows largest drop in 23
years in production activity. Reading of 48.4 shows
manufacturing is in contraction instead of expansioN.
Old News worth repeating
- Scientists at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research working with
the chemistry department of the University of Madras announced they have
developed several techniques to make stainless steel orthopedic implants
more resistant to localized corrosion in the human body. The procedure implants
nitrogen ions to stainless raising the standard 300 ppm of nitrogen to 1600
ppm, which increase its corrosion resistance 5 to 6 times. The human body
contains .9 percent of sodium chloride with a PH of 7.4 and temperature of
37 degrees, which is a corrosive medium to stainless. The risk of internal
corrosion is not only dangerous in a failing implant, but also nickel released
into the body accumulates in certain organs, particularly the
kidneys.
|
4/4
- Nickel closes at $3.58/lb.
4/8
- After ending Monday at $8000/tone ($3.63/lb),
nickel falls on news that Norilsk has released 18M
tones it was holding as collateral and announced plans to release another
18M tones in April.
4/10 - Nickel regains its losses on fears
of possible strike at Inco, Ltd,
west's largest nickel producer. Closes
at $3.62/lb.
4/10 - China beats US in 2002 becoming world's
largest consumer of copper. Also in 2002 China
took over lead in world consumption of stainless
steel and steel from US
4/15 - Nickel closes at
$3.72/lb
4/15 - Inco reports profits for first quarter
triple those of 2002 - $33 million
4/16 - Taiwan Industrial Fastener Institute announced
exports increased 13.18% in the 1st quarter of 2003 largely
due to overseas buyers placing rush orders as raw material
prices increased. Taiwan is
also benefiting from China having trouble meeting
delivery dates after cutting their export quota.
4/16 - US ranks third in stainless steel production
behind the European Union and Japan
4/16 - Molybdenum at $4.80/lb down from $ 4.95/lb a month
ago, but much higher than $ 3.20/lb a year ago. As a
by-product of copper mining and used widely in 316 Stainless,
the price is very dependent on copper markets.
4/17 - International Nickel Study Group predicts
nickel production to fall 20M tones short
of consumption in 2003 compared to a 15M
tone surplus in 2002. This information could drive
prices even higher.
4/18 - LME markets closed for holiday. Nickel ends
week at $3.73/lb.
4/18 - Market watchers predict ferrochrome
could climb higher in upcoming months as worldwide
inventories fall to low levels. Molybdenum continues
to edge down after a volatile March - closes at
$4.83/lB
4/21 - Taiwan fastener manufacturer advises delays
in US deliveries and rise
in prices due to.... Raw material 304 is at $1800/ton
compared to $1350/ton in February. Sudden influx of
business from European market due to ending of tariff's.
Wire manufacturers keeping raw material inventories tight
to keep prices up. YUSCO advising further increases in raw material
likely in May.
4/21 - An 8% import tariff on stainless steel wire
was imposed by President Bush on March 21, 2002,
but SSINA studies show imports have increased 7%
in the year since. US screw manufacturers advise they
still find imported material less expensive than domestic
- in many cases.
4/22 - LME reports
nickel falls to $3.64/lb,
along with other metals, on concerns SARS
may adversely affect China's economic
growth, largest in the world presently.
4/22 -
Japanese traders advise further increases in export
stainless "unlikely" in near future
4/23 - LME nickel closes at
$3.55/lb
4/25
- LME nickel ends week at
$3.56/lb.
4/29
- US Consumer Board Consumer Confidence skyrocketed to 81.0,
well above March's 62.5. Nickel closes at LME
at $3.62.
Hexavalent
chromium vapor's are emitted when stainless steel is cast, welded,
or torch cut. The state of California has determined that hexavalent
chromium is a human carcinogen under Proposition 65 and special precautions
should be taken under these condition's.
|
5/1
-
Nickel closes on LME at $3.71/lb.
5/5 - LME (London Metal Exchange) closed for May Day
holiday
5/5 - World Bank predicting China's economy will grow at
7.3%, after weathering a temporary slowdown due to the SARS
epidemic. International Stainless Convention planned
in Shanghai for mid-May, cancelled. Market watchers
say that SARS and a May import quota will cause
a slowdown in stainless production in China, but that
fundamentals look positive for a
quick rebound in June. POSCO in South Korea has
announced their new factory is up and running,
with stainless steel production expected to reach 600M
tones its first year, and planned growth to 1.66 million tones
annual production. This would make POSCo the
world's fifth largest stainless steel producer in the world. In the US
The Iron and Steel Society (ISS) and the Association
of Iron & Steel Engineers (AISE) announce
plans to merge.
Which
goes on a bolt first - the jam nut or the regular nut?
Answer - there is no clear answer. Engineers have argued this point for years.
The majority feel the jam nut goes first.
One argument here
.
Webster's Dictionary calls the jam nut a "chuck nut"
and describes it
as "a nut which is screwed up tight against another
nut...in order to prevent accidental unscrewing
of the first nut".
5/7
- LME nickel closes at $ 3.71/lb
as traders attention is drawn to
Inco contract negotiations
5/9 - SARS death toll passes 500 worldwide as
economists advise China's economy is showing signs of a
slow down and predict their GDP could fall as much
as 1-2% this year. Over 7000 cases reported worldwide.
5/12 - Special Metals, Inc of Huntington, WV files for Chapter
11 bankruptcy Friday. Special Metals is the world's largest producer
of high performance nickel based alloys.
5/12 -
US dollar continues to fall against Canadian
Dollar - From a recent high in Nov of $1.5903
to Friday's $1.393. This makes exports to Canada more
economical and imports more expensive for US consumers..
5/15 - LME nickel steady since last report.
Switzerland based International Management and Development Institute
releases 2003 World Competiveness Yearbook. US ranks number
one as the most competitive economy, with Australia second
in the large economy's class. Finland was number one in the small economic
class, which includes countries with under 20 million inhabitants.
In the overall economic performance rating, the
US edged out China for the top spot. In government efficiency,
Australia nudged out the US from the top spot.
The report also warns the SARS outbreak will have a
dramatic effect on Asian competitiveness, primarily with
a huge loss in the tourism industry.
5/16 - LME nickel ends strong, closing at
$ 3.82/lb on reports Norilsk will
be halting all nickel shipments thru their Arctic port
in Dudinka in anticipation of the annual Yenisey River flood.
MEPS International predicts demand for stainless steel will remain
strong, despite SARS. As the world's largest stainless steel
consumer, with an average annual growth in consumption of 17% for
nearly a
decade, what happens in China will have a
direct effect on world prices.
5/21 - LME nickel closes
at $3.79/lb.
Reuters reports the two largest producers of nickel
in the western hemisphere can't agree on the future of nickel. The
largest, Inco, is quoted as being very optimistic. They advise
with demands exceeding worldwide supply, even in the
slower economy, the cost of nickel should stay
up. Number two Falconbridge is more pessimistic. They advise
the slowdown in the overall world economies and SARS,
could slow demand enough to lower the cost
of nickel. Inco advises the only effect
they are noticing from SARS is a drop in inventory
among nervous distributors and that their direct sales to
China has seen no effect due to SARS.
5/23 - China State Information Center
lowers forecast for annual GDP. Blaming negative effect of
SARS epidemic in its economy, China has
lowered its estimated growth in GDP from 9%
to 7.5%. LME begins 3 day weekend closing at
$3.83/lb.
5/27 - Negotiations went sour over the weekend
between Inco and its union, and by Monday, a conciliator had been
called in. While no agreement has been reached, the union advises
they want to vote on Friday. With a strike seeming more
possible, LME traders reacted and forced nickel up to close
at $3.92/lb.
5/28 - LME nickel continues to gain on fears of
a possible Inco strike. Additional negative news was the
disclosure that Resolute Mining Ltd in Australia had been placed
into voluntary liquidation. While only producing
an estimated 7,000 tones a year, market watchers say
this will not help an already tight market and prices could
go over $4/lb in the next few days. Talks at
Inco broke off late Tuesday and union leaders
advise they are recommending their members reject the
company's offer.
5/29 - LME traders continue to worry about effects
of possible strike - with early morning nickel trades
exceeding the $4/lb range. Closes at
$4.04/lb.
5/29 - Importers facing uncertainty about future stainless prices
because of the Inco nickel strike are now starting to feel the
container price increases that began May 1st. Overseas ship lines raised
pricing on containers as much as
70%.
In
1993, the US and Japan consumed 3.7 million
tones of stainless steel. 9 years later, in 2002, China alone
consumed 3.2 million tones. While other markets averaged an
annual growth rate in stainless consumption of 5-6%, China
averaged 17%, and 30% the last
two years.
5/30
- Union begins strike vote this AM, with Inco union
officials predicting an 85% strike vote. If they are correct, strike
will begin midnight Saturday. Inco supplies approximately
9% of the world's nickel, which is mainly used
in stainless steel.
6/2 - Inco union strikes at 0400 GMT Sunday.
LME early trading shows nickel rising
to $4.18/lb, the highest
its been since 2000. Union vote was 95%
in favor of contract rejection. With 45% of the
work force within 3 years of retirement, contract
talks broke down over pension differences. No talks are scheduled
at this time. Nickel
was at $2.99/lb this time last year.
6/2 - News from China reflects a
drop in stainless steel demand, with SARS getting
primary blame. LME nickel inventories
stand at 26,532 tones compared to 12,978
tones in March. Demand for nickel generally falls during
the summer months. These three factors "could" help
keep anticipated price increases minimized as long as the
Inco strike does not last too long.
6/2 - Nickel closes at $
4.23/lb. Analyst from AME advises strike will
have minimal affect on worldwide
nickel supplies, unless it extends beyond 2
weeks.
6/3 - Profit taking hit LME early
with prices sliding
to $4.19 before halting. No strike
talks at Inco scheduled. Norilsk advises they are
increasing production from last years 218M tones, to 235M
this year. Norilsk shipments on schedule and flooding
has not interferred with shipments so far. Market is
volatile. Norilsk US office - 412-722-1120.
6/3 - Inco advises it will declare "force majeure" on
some contracts. Force majeure is a legal procedure
taken when unforeseen
conditions arise that prohibit a company
from meeting contract obligations. The strike. in its
3rd day, has completely shut down all Inco production of
nickel. LME investors, already nervous, received this news
by raising the price of nickel
to $4.22/lb, after some profit taking
this AM.
6/4 - LME market opens quietly with little
movement. No talks scheduled at Inco. Investors greeted Norilsk
news of extra shipments by stabilizing price
of nickel. Third largest supplier of
nickel, Falconbridge of Canada announces it can not help
with extra production at this time and can
only meet current contracts.Nickel currently at highest level
since 2000. Increases in nickel are
in check by two major factors
- concern over a short strike and the fear
of the huge drop anticipated after an agreement would
be reached. An agreement could easily see
prices plummeting to the $3.60/lb
range. Market watchers agree that how high it will go
is determined by the length of the strike.
6/5 - LME broker IFX said in a daily report:"...nickel is in
the early stages of establishing a reasonable support base for a re-challenge
of the $10,300 level ($4.67/lb) last seen three years ago, although an ear
will be kept to the ground concerning events with Inco. "The first hurdle
to overcome will be the resistance at $9,480/520 ($4.30/lb), although once
this level is broken we can expect a glut of fund/technical/CTA buying as
the market attempts to fill the void to the upside." News from Inco - no
talks scheduled between
company and union. LME closes st
$4.26/lb.
6/6 - LME early trades jump
over psychological barrier of $4.30/lb but traders expect
some profit taking before day's end. Most predict too
early in strike for
nickel to sustain this high a value. Growth
in nickel imports to China expected to fall to
30% this year, down from 46% last year - primarily blamed
on SARS. Industry experts predict Inco strike will have
most adverse reaction in Far Eastern markets such as Taiwan
and South Korea, large customers of Inco.
6/6 - As predicted, profit takers ruled
the afternoon LME market and nickel closed the
week at $4.17/lb.
6/9 - Nickel markets open quietly as traders
take wait and see attitude. Strike in 9th day at Inco
with no talks scheduled
6/9 - Nickel profit takers continue to sell
- LME closes at $4.11 - baffling
many industry analysts.
6/9 -
National Marine Manufacturers Association website reports
3% less boats (852,400) were sold in the US in
2002 than the previous year.
6/10 - LME nickel edges up slightly
to $4.16/lb.
6/12 - Norilsk Nickel of Russia announces it will
release 24M tones of nickel to help offset the los
from Inco. Inco still has no scheduled talks with its union after
12 days of a strike. This release will help stabilize
the nickel market and may actually bring it down for
a short period.
6/12 - After the announcement by Norilsk, nickel price
plummet at LME and end
at $4.01/lb. The situation in the US is more
volatile with Reuters reporting the premium's on US
nickel averaging nearly $.25/lb higher than LME, with one
recent rush order quoted at $.55/lb over LME. One trader
advises with the DLA (US government) no longer
stockpiling nickel, Inco supplies deleted, and
Norilsk stockpiles nearly gone (this is disputable as some
believe Norilsk still secretly holds another 40M tones)
, past economic conditions that forced users keep low inventories
could cause huge deficits if the strike continues much longer.
His deep concern is not the general consensus though, as the
drop in prices reflect LME traders are not as
pessimistic.
6/13 - Barclay's predicts prices should settle
down to $3.53 to $3.90/lb range with
an anticipated surplus in nickel market. They
doubt any more spikes in pricing will happen unless
Inco strike is extended. Based
on anticipated growth in stainless market and
very little new production coming on stream in the next
few years, Barclay's is also predicting nickel
to stay strong thru 2005.
6/13 - LME Nickel ends week at
$3.93/lb.
6/16 -
LME slides to $3.83/lb
in early morning trading. Investors extremely nervous about
impact of the release by Norilsk of 24M tones of nickel
last week. EU producers also advising they will
be cutting nickel production during third quarter as worldwide
usage falls. This announcement made during the Inco strike
is sending mixed signals, which is causing confusion among
nickel traders. Stainless scrap dealers in Europe are bracing
for the possibility of falling nickel prices later
this summer, especially if Inco settles their strike
and begins production.
6/16 - LME nickel
closes day at $3.83/lb.
6/17 - LME opens with all metals showing minor
gains. Nickel up $.05/lb in early trading. Looking
for any reason to justify higher
prices, in light of the Inco strike, traders noticed
that Japan and Korea had successfully re-negotiated price increases
on stainless to China yesterday. With inventories down
and nickel up, this is possible evidence that
worldwide stainless usage is better than earlier
believed. The prices China will now be paying are the second
highest paid during the last 5 years. WMC Resources
Corp. Ltd, Australia's largest producer of nickel, has advised
its Far Eastern customers that it will be unable to
help pick up the slack of lost nickel supply
caused by the Inco strike. Inco was able to win a court
injunction against its union yesterday, which allows
the union to picket but demands it discontinue blocking
entry to Inco' plants. No talks scheduled
6/17 - LME closes at $3.95/lb.
6/18 - Inco advises Canadian paper it has no
immediate plans to return
to bargaining with union.
6/19 - After closing
at $3.97/lb yesterday, nickel
slid on profit taking and news of a firming US dollar
in early morning trading to $3.91/lb.
Japan reported output of hot roll stainless was
down 2.7% from same time last year.
China Iron and Steel Association reports
that production of nickel based stainless increased by
32.8% during the first four months of 2003 over the same time
last year. This could reflect the SARS epidemic
effects on stainless production in China
will be minimal. Another mixed signal for nickel
traders!
6/19 - LME nickel closes same
as yesterday - $3.97/lb
6/20 - No news is good news for those wanting
nickel to fall. Nickel tumbled as traders
sold short and ended the week at
$3.86/lb. UBS cut Inco stock recommendation
from buy to neutral.
6/23 - Reports of a possible cut by the Fed of the US
prime lending rate drove all metals stock down,
including nickel which closed at
$3.73/lb.
6/24 - Nickel closes up
at $3.79/lb with little activity
as traders await interest rate announcement due
tomorrow.
6/25 - All eyes were on the US to see
if the Fed would drop the interest rate for
the 13th time. With the announcement due
after LME closing, nickel saw
little activity, ending up only $.02 over
Tuesday. Traders believe a lowering of the
interest rate again will reflect greater economic trouble
in the US than originally perceived. On the heels of
a report out today that new orders for May in the US
dropped .3%, a drop in the interest rate of 1/2% could drive
metals down further. Nickel is
showing some stability over other traded
minerals with the Inco strike nearing its first month.
6/26 - Fed drops interest rate 1/4 of 1%. As
metals market had already adjusted in anticipation of this, very
little movement is affected. China reports it imported 2.6 million
tones of stainless steel last year, making it not only
the largest importer, but showed a 39% increase in
stainless imports over 2002.
6/27 - LME nickel ends week
at $3.84/lb. With long liquidation
completed, traders expect nickel to gain ground
again during the next few weeks.
6/30 - Nickel market opens lower on reports
the European stainless scrap market pricing has fallen 10% in
the last few weeks, due to weak user demand.
In what one trader described as "the lap of the gods"
the nickel market is failing to show the huge increases feared
would come because of the Inco strike.
Reports from Canada show no talks scheduled
between Inco and its union.
|