The Chinese are coming - "When the Chinese government opened up its economy in 1978 and embarked on a policy of reforms, China has come a long way since then. In less than three decades, it has become an economic powerhouse, showing phenomenal growth the likes of which had never been seen before. It has $1 trillion foreign exchange reserves, registering a trade surplus of $177.5 billion in 2006 alone. China is awash with so much cash - it just keeps on flowing into the country. Last year, $70 billion foreign direct investments poured into China. The Chinese government has freed up control measures to allow companies and individuals to take the money abroad. China is expected to invest as much as $5 billion every month for the next two years." - article here

  SMC strikes new 'vein' - Recycling business bolsters the bottom line - "Under the foothills of the Beartooths, miners labor day and night to pry precious metals from the J-M Reef. But Stillwater Mining Co. has discovered another source of platinum and palladium, a source that runs on four wheels and can be found above ground." - more here

  Belvedere Acquires Outokumpu Mining Oy's Hitura Nickel Mine - "Belvedere Resources Ltd. is pleased to announce that it has now signed the Final Agreement to acquire the Hitura Nickel Mine from Outokumpu Mining Oy and the remaining 55% of Finn Nickel (Suomen Nikkeli Oy)." - press release here 

  Metal thieves knock Vancouver radio station off air - "A Vancouver radio station was knocked off the air for several hours Thursday after thieves raided its transmitter, stealing copper and other metal." - article here   Rise in Ag Theft Has Farmer's On High Alert - "A rise in Ag theft around the Valley has both authorities and farmers on high alert. One fed-up farmer told Action News he had a 1,000 gallon tank of diesel fuel stolen. Many more have run into problems just trying to water their crops." - article here   Manchin vetoes metal theft bill, says it went too far - "In vetoing a House bill, Gov. Joe Manchin said the Legislature went too far in its quest to deter scrap metal thieves." - article here   Thieves targeting valuable metals in catalytic converters - "It turns out there's a gold mine under every vehicle, and enterprising thieves are starting to cash in by stealing catalytic converts from parked cars." - article here  How to prevent metal theft - "The best way to prevent metal theft, Porter County Sheriff Dave Lain says, is the same way to prevent any theft: secure your property." - article here  (comment - just a reminder to those in the Northern Hemisphere with summer approaching - test your air conditioner. We reported late last year, that over the winter, thieves were stealing the insides out of air conditioner compressors and replacing the outer shell - thus making it nearly impossible to discover until you try to turn your air conditioner on, and nothing happens. We met a person last month that was victimized by this. )

  Cramer back on the Base Metal Bandwagon - "Everybody hates Jim Cramer. That may be so, but don't underestimate him. His personality may put your TV on mute, but he does have a nose for sentiment. He knows when the crowd is getting in and when they are getting out." - more here

  (not sure how they figure 7%) LME nickel drops over 7 pct, tin hits new high - "Nickel shed over 7 percent on the London Metal Exchange on Friday as investors took profits ahead of what analysts predicted would be a more balanced market in the second half of 2007. " - article here

  Zimbabwe: Mugabe says government to redistribute mineral resources - "President Robert Mugabe says the Western attacks on Zimbabwe and the demonization of the its leaders is nothing new as revolutionaries of the struggle faced serious denigration at the hands of some Westerners during the liberation struggle." - more here

   Nickel prices to remain soft - "Nickel prices in the domestic market may remain weak in near term following the global markets reports of fund selling and higher LME stocks data." - article here

 Quote from Dow Jones article - Confirmation to Metal Bulletin report on Thursday - "Recent deliveries into LME warehouses in Asia is by China's Jinchuan Group Ltd. against a nickel short position. But traders said this is natural, given the requirements of Chinese accounting. "If Jinchuan has sold material to the LME and the market is above it, it has to deliver it because it can't have a difference account," one physical trader said. He noted Jinchuan is a major nickel producer and a short position would be covered by its own output. "It's the naked shorts that have been caught out," he added.""

  DJ Steelmakers Cancel Nickel Ahead Of Surcharge Fall - Traders - "Steelmakers are canceling deliveries of nickel from producers in anticipation of a collapse in the stainless surcharge, physical market sources told Dow Jones Newswires Friday." - article here

  (our two cents) Week in Review - Brutal for nickel investors. Source used for the following is different than Comtex, where we get the daily ending number, and the LME, where we get the official prices. Until Monday's trading began, 8 of the preceding 12 trading days of March, had seen new record high's for nickel, with Friday, March 16th's $22.00/lb for 3 month nickel, being the most recent all-time record to beat. Over the weekend, reports began to surface that implied stainless steel producers were cancelling orders for nickel, with China's largest nickel producer announcing Monday, the market was out of control. When traders showed up Monday they were a little unnerved by all the news, including the weekend interest rate hike in China, and the markets opened at $21.70/lb, saw a high of $21.75/lb, saw a low of $21.09/lb, and ending the day at $21.23/lb, a loss of 2.25% for the first day of the week. Tuesday didn't fare any better for traders, with the market opening at $21.19/lb, hitting $21.27/lb for the high, falling to a low of $20.09/lb, and ending at $20.11/lb, another bigger loss of 5.3%. Wednesday saw the slide slow down, which was interesting considering the nearly 18% increase in nickel inventories reported at the beginning of the day. The market opened at $20.14/lb, rose to a high of $20.25/lb for the day, fell to a low of $19.37/lb, and ended at $19.91/lb, just shy of a 1% loss. Thursday saw the bulls return, on news the Fed had decided to leave interest rates alone and a report from a respected metals site reported Jinchuan was attempting to cover a short bet it had made. Markets opened at $19.87/lb, also the low of the day, rose to as high as $20.66/lb, and ended the day at $20.47/lb, a gain of 2.8%. Friday, the market opened to news that Jinchuan was denying the report, and the market would tumble all day, confirming the market was in a correction mood. Markets opened at $20.64/lb, snuck up to $20.71/lb for a high point, fell to a low of $19.20/lb, and ended at $19.26/lb, a loss of 5.9%. The 3rd week of March closed approximately 12-1/2% lower than the record high it had hit on the Friday before. But the market is up approximately 2-1/2% on the month, and a whooping 21-1/2% for the year. For the 12 month period, the price of nickel is up 277% from March 23rd, 2006. The difference between the highest traded price (Monday) and lowest (Friday) for the week, was about 12%. Inventories started Monday at 3,702 tonnes, and on Friday morning LME was reporting they had gained 25% so far for the week.

So, was Jinchuan motivated by a bad bet to scare the market into a freefall? Who knows, and at this point, it really doesn't matter. If they lied, they are still too big a consumer for the nickel market to mess with. If they didn't, they succeeded in bringing about a correction, that was overdue to happen anyway. Now things will get interesting. We are posting a report above that shows consumers of stainless, are cancelling orders, knowing surcharges will probably drop for May. This could potentially force the stainless steel producers, that weren't cancelling orders for nickel already, to delay future shipments. The producers of nickel will take the extra nickel that they haven't had for months and possibly send it to the LME warehouses. Growing inventories in LME warehouses, after the drought we have seen, could scare the market into further price declines. We say could, potentially, and possibly, because no one really knew what will happen for sure. A thousand things could happen to change everything.

It is is worth noting that much of the supply/demand news that came out this week, would have in any other week, drove the market higher.  The first two weeks of this month, the market hit new records on far less news. On the supply side, The Port Authority in Esperance has temporarily banned the shipments of tin after a large bird kill, and when they checked the local water, they found high concentrations of nickel. This may cause shipping troubles for Australia's third largest producer of nickel, LionOre Mining, just days after it reported record profits for 2006. For demand, besides Jinchuan's proclamation of doom and gloom, Chinese officials released figures, showing nickel imports into that country surged 84% in February. And on Thursday, China government owned Antaki, projected nickel imports would increase by 20% on the year, rising from 250,000 tons in 2006 to 300,000 tons in 2007. On Wednesday, the executive president of China’s Stainless Steel Council Li Cheng, admitted the market share for low nickel stainless steel had actually fallen since 2004, a period which saw nickel prices rise. He reported the production of 200 series stainless steel had fallen by 2-3% to approximately 17%, totally opposite of what others had been threatening. A day later, Antaki reported the market share for 200 series stainless steel was more like 15%, but 'destined to increase due to higher nickel prices'(these two should probably compare notes in the future).  

Maybe the title for the week should have been a question? "Has the nickel market finally found the price ceiling that forced stainless steel producers to openly revolt?"   

  Not nickel related - interesting article - Global Ruling Class: Billionaires And How They ‘Made It’ - "In India, which has the highest number of billionaires (36) in Asia with total wealth of $191 billion USD, Prime Minister Singh declared that the greatest single threat to ‘India’s security’ were the Maoist led guerrilla armies and mass movements in the poorest parts of the country. In China, with 20 billionaires with $29.4 billion USD net worth, the new rulers, confronting nearly a hundred thousand reported riots and protests, have increased the number of armed special anti-riot militia a hundred fold, and increased spending for the rural poor by $10 billion USD in the hopes of lessening the monstrous class inequalities and heading off a mass upheaval." - article here

  A tattoo for the educated man - here  Have a safe weekend!!

  Public Broadcasting's Frontline is an in-depth weekly news investigation program, and our favorite. PBS archives their 50 most recent broadcasts for viewing online here

  (courtesy/copyright Chicago Tribune) "An Alabama mining company on Thursday denied any relationship with right-wing death squads in Colombia and said it has no intention of settling a related U.S. lawsuit. A federal judge in Alabama last month allowed a civil suit to go forward against Drummond Co. Inc. for allegedly paying a hit squad to kill three union leaders in 2001 at one of its Colombia mines. Colombia's chief prosecutor announced a formal criminal investigation into Drummond on Tuesday for alleged ties to paramilitaries."

  Indications  at 7:55 am CST show nickel selling down by $.58/lb . In the last 4 days, nickel inventories have grown by 75%. While still critically low, the market is reacting as expected, and some profit takers are cashing out. (more - Bloomberg report here) (more - Dow Jones report here)

  Treasures in her hold - "More than a million dollars worth of nickel is aboard the stricken MSC Napoli, it was confirmed this week." - article here

  New Caledonia Nickel Gathering May Provide New Insight - "Nickel, a key component in the manufacture of stainless steel, has continued its meteoric rise that started in 2006 amid project delays, low stocks and strong demand, rallying 54% since the start of the year to a record $48,500/ton on March 16." - more here

  Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel announces raw materials surcharge - "Wheeling-Pittsburgh Steel Corp. has announced that, effective April 1, 2007, it will institute a $53 per ton raw materials surcharge on orders scheduled for April shipment." - more here

  Esperance bans lead concentrate shipments - "The Port Authority in Esperance has banned shipments of lead concentrate after thousands of birds died in and around the town." - article here

  Chinese Firm RockCheck Steel Group To Invest $200-M In Philippine Mining - "A leading Chinese corporation on Wednesday pledged to invest an initial $200 million in the Philippines for the construction of a ferro nickel plant in Eastern Samar, south of the capital Manila." - article here

  News Bite (from Investor Village forum, verified) - "Detailed China import-export numbers were released today for February....Nickel net imports were up 84% to 10.3 kt."

  PT Newmont Slammed With New Lawsuit Over Buyat Bay - "Indonesia's largest environmental non-governmental organization (NGO) Wahana Lingkungan Hidup Indonesia (WALHI) has launched a civil suit against Newmont’s Indonesian subsidiary PT Newmont Minahasa Raya (PTNMR) over alleged pollution from the disposal of mine tailings into Buyat Bay - now the fourth litigation of its kind." - article here

  Cuba plans JV with Sherritt to help expand nickel and cobalt output - "Havana's Center for Research and Projects at the Mining-Metallurgical Industry (CIPIMM) is developing new technologies to expand the Cuban nickel industry." - article here

  Mining law to change as lawsuits rear up - "THE South African government has made a critical amendment to its mining legislation in an effort to block potentially damaging lawsuits later this year alleging expropriation." - article here

  Indian ore tax to help Australia - "AUSTRALIA is set to be the major beneficiary, with Brazil, of India's export duty on iron ore - which has already caused Chinese buyers to divert more than 20 ships from India." - more here

  Mills to produce low nickel grades stainless - "Although nickel prices hit a record peak of US$48,500 on March 16, China’s demand for nickel may still rise by 20 percent in 2007 and output is likely to surge by 36 percent, senior analyst Aidong Xu who worked in a state-owned research group Antaki said." - article here

  Jinchuan Denies Report It Has `Large' Nickel Wager - "Jinchuan Group Co., a company controlling 90 percent of China's nickel production, denied a Metal Bulletin report that it has a ``large'' bet on lower prices for the metal used in stainless steel." - article here (this could get interesting - last year Posco of Korea denied similar reports, which later proved to be true)

  Philippines MacroAsia, China's Jinchuan In Nickel Deal - "Philippine investment holding company MacroAsia Corp said Friday that it has signed a deal with China-based nickel producer Jinchuan Group Ltd. to explore and possibly develop mining claims." - article here and another

  Today's beginning nickel inventory - plus 618 tons = 4,932 tonnes (33.33% - 1544 tonnes cancelled warrants).

  Indications  at 7:55 am CST show nickel selling down by $.40/lb . Traders start this week with more than a few concerns to think about. First, while doubtful to have much effect, China raised its interest rates on Saturday by .27 points. Secondly, after days of record breaking growth, the market is due for a correction, however minor it might be. And most importantly, there is talk of a stainless steel producer revolt, of sorts. If you missed our weekend review, you might want to give it a look. There are reports of producers cancelling and delaying nickel orders and stopping stainless steel production altogether. If true, LME nickel inventories should start growing, as they did this morning by a mere 138 tons. Is this evidence of a buyers boycott, or just the normal flow of inventory seen every week? That is the million dollar question, and traders will be watching inventory levels and news closely this week. (more) (more)

  Macquarie ups long-term base metal price estimates - "Australian investment bank Macquarie has revised up its long term price estimates for all base metals, reflecting further escalation in capital and marginal operating costs." - article here

  News Bite - "LME nickel is averaging $37,456/ton in the year to date, up from an '06 average of $23,252/ton, says John Meyer of Numis Securities. "In light of the strength in prices so far this year, we are considering raising our outlook for the year ahead," says Meyer. " (courtesy Dow Jones Newswire)

  China rate hike will not impede demand for commodities - Australian economists - "The People's Bank of China's (PBoC) decision to hike its key interest rate by 27 basis points is unlikely to have any significant impact on demand for commodities with exports seen continuing to grow strongly, economists here said." - article here

  Press release - "Metals X hits 'Ravensthorpe-sized' nickel resource" - pdf here (on page 3 a nice chart showing largest undeveloped nickel mines in the world)

  Philippines – Rusina to be nickel producer within months - "Australia ’s Rusina Mining is set to become a nickel producer within months under a financing and mining contract set earlier this month for part of its lucrative Acoje project in the Philippines ." - article here

  New acquisitions to elevate Mincor’s nickel output - "Mincor Resources NL, now the leading nickel miner in the Kambalda region of Western Australia, is expecting to lift its group annual production of contained nickel in fiscal 2008/09 to 20,000 tonnes." - article here

  Arcelor Mittal eyes hostile bid for Posco - ""The company will acquire more friendly shares for stable management," a POSCO official said, adding that shareholders counted as friendly to the management now controlled 40 per cent of the company." - article here

  China Jinchuan warns pricey nickel may cause crash - "China`s top nickel producer Jinchuan Group Ltd warned that oversupply could cause a crash in nickel process in the next few years as "crazy" current prices encourage blind investment in nickel mines." - more here

  Rheebu Nuu plays the opening - "The complaints of Rheebu Nuu with respect to Goro Nickel did not change: environmental protection, of the lagoon, of the ground water, better association of the bordering populations to the project. Except that today, Raphaël Mapou and they his consider that they have from now on a valid interlocutor. “We were never opposed to the negotiation with Goro Nickel. Today, we note that the context is favourable with this discussion. " - translated article here

  Today's beginning nickel inventory - plus 138 tons = 3,702 tonnes (31.12% cancelled warrants)

For years, nickel prices have had their ups and downs. A strike in Canada, a power plant fire in Norilsk, the collapse of the Iron Curtain, the Asian Financial Crisis, the list goes on and on. These, and many other reasons, have caused nickel prices to spike, and plummet. Bull market spikes of the past could be counted in weeks and months, but usually, only bear markets lasted for years. With price spikes having a historical track record of going bust nearly overnight, stainless steel producers have become leery when prices begin to rise. All have been burnt and seen their nickel inventory loose value nearly overnight.

With this in mind, many producers of stainless steel, the main customer of nickel, have been reluctant to stockpile excess nickel. This reluctance spreads down the stainless supply chain. Even three years into this bull market, and during the large spike witnessed last fall, Norilsk Nickel Deputy General Director Victor Sprogis tried to blame nickel users - “Today's market volatility is due to the fact that some consumers this year cut the volumes they buy under long-term contracts and so increased their spot market purchases.'' While we blasted this remark last August as presumptuous, it did reflect the uncertainty of future nickel prices, and the pressures stainless steel producers were, and continue to purchase under.

The past six years has not only been a bull market, but has laid out a track record of spikes, followed by minor corrections, and more price spikes. This overall upward trend in prices, has lowered the threat of past price declines, and puts purchasers of nickel on a more predictable playing field. Nickel buyers, historically worried about disastrous declines, now must be concerned about the financial risk of waiting. And while all accept the occasional price corrections, purchasers, like analysts, are becoming more resigned to the fact, that this market could maintain prices at a level few even imagined possible, just a year ago. If extreme price volatility ever returns to the London Metal Exchange trading floor, you will see nickel buyers return to a wait and see tactic.

Therefore, while some market watchers fear substitution, users of stainless worry about passing on the price increases they are experiencing, miners warily watch demand, and traders keep their eye on supply, pricing that shows a degree of durability, has positive benefits, beyond immediate profits to miners and stockholders.  

(the next story from Reuters is given as the immediate threat to the above theory)  

High prices choke China's imports of nickel - "Surging world nickel prices are choking imports of the metal into China, as consumers take advantage of domestic prices that are 10 percent lower than the cost of imported metal, traders said on Friday. Chinese importers are asking overseas suppliers to delay or cancel term shipments and are taking the bare minimum amounts allowed in other contracts, and their unwanted metal could find its way into LME warehouses. Prompt nickel on the London Metal Exchange was around $51,000 a tonne on Friday. Prices have rallied 45 percent this year, lifted by dwindling supplies in LME-monitored warehouses, which have fallen to 3,564 tonnes from over 6,000 tonnes at the start of the year. Jinchuan Group Ltd., China's top nickel producer, on Friday raised prices by 10,000 yuan to 357,000 yuan ($46,100) a tonne in reaction to the LME surge. "Basically spot imports have stopped," an importer in Shanghai said. He added that his firm had already exercised a clause in its contracts that allowed it to halve its term imports and was considering suspending all imports from May. A manager at a nickel importer in Inner Mongolia said half of his clients had stopped buying and others had bought less. The firm was asking its Russian supplier to suspend its 2007 shipments. "(Overseas supplier) may put that extra nickel in the futures market. At this price level, who is going to buy spot metal?" the manager said. Australia and New Zealand Bank analyst Andrew Harrington said: "We could see some downward pressure on spot prices. If Chinese imports are delayed, material en route could be diverted to warehouses. "That would give people in urgent need of material an additional avenue." However, supplies in China have turned very tight and merchants were trying to get hold of nickel from local producers such as Jinchuan. In eastern China, prompt nickel on Friday traded at 415,000 to 420,000 yuan a tonne, up 16,500 yuan from Thursday. Spot imports were trading at premiums of $250 to $450 a tonne over cash LME nickel prices for smelting grade. Nickel for plating grade traded at $200 to $1,000, compared with 2007 term premiums of $800-$1,000 "If you imported one tonne of nickel now, you would at least lose 30,000 yuan a tonne." a dealer at a large Chinese trading firm said. Traders said small- and medium-scale stainless steel mills and plating plants were reducing production rates to use less nickel and have completely stopped production.

"Nickel prices are out of control. It is now $1.60 an ounce and this could be the start of a revolt by stainless producers," ABN AMRO global commodities analyst Nick Moore said. "The problem stops and starts with China, but if the Chinese don't buy, who will? They will not want to see material go to competitors who can use it to produce, nor will they want it to go to a merchant who can dribble metal out slowly." Moore noted that Chinese stainless capacity rose by 40 percent in 2005 and by 42 percent in 2006. "I am forecasting a rise this year of 38 percent to 6.5 million tonnes," he said. Smaller Chinese stainless steel mills, concerned that end-users will resist paying higher prices, are reducing their orders, traders said. The most popular 304-grade stainless steel was trading at about 46,000 yuan a tonne in eastern China, against 36,000 yuan in late February. A source at a stainless-steel tube maker in eastern China said the firm was limiting new orders due to the higher risk posed by volatile nickel prices. The firm sold stainless-steel tube used in chemical industry, at about 60,000 yuan a tonne, more than 30 percent higher than late December. The price has risen 6,000 yuan a tonne so far this month. ANZ's Harrington said: "We are getting to a point where producers of stainless steel are starting to react to expensive nickel. Commercial decisions become harder and if people decide to cut back production because of the cost of nickel as an input it could re-establish a ceiling." About two-third of world production of nickel goes into stainless steel." (courtesy and copyright Reuters - taken from UBS Daily Report 3/16/07) 

(comment - if the above is true - it will be interesting to see if the drop in demand is reflected in growing LME inventories, or if mines will start stockpiling to keep prices inflated. More than likely, all that will be gained, will be shortages of stainless this spring/summer. In the short term they might accomplish bringing nickel prices down. In the long term, they could feed another spike in nickel when they resume buying.)

  Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Inc. Market Report - pdf here

  Macquarie Research updated forecast (for price forecast thru 2011, see here)

 

 Global commodity-price boom 'unstoppable phenomenon' - "South African Mick Davis is nothing if not acquisitive. Under this former Eskom executive director, the London-listed Swiss-based Xstrata plc has seen its share price soar following flurry of acquisitions in the past five years, his latest scalp being that of Canadian nickel giant Falconbridge." - article here

  China raises benchmark interest rates by 0.27% - "China's central bank announced on Saturday that the one-year benchmark interest rates are raised by 0.27 percentage points as of March 18." - article here

  Palace not lifting limits on mineral extraction - "Amid protests by environmental groups and big mining firms, Malacañang has abandoned its earlier decision to lift the limits imposed on the extraction of minerals by small-scale miners across the country." - more here

  News Bite - "The Director of Brazil-based Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), one of the world's largest mining and metals firms, announced that the company is planning to set up a regional base in Oman, Arab News reported."

  Nickel Prices shooting High Making Indian Stainless Steel Lackluster - "A top industry official reported on January 31, 2007 that burgeoning global prices of nickel together with recently introduced reduced duty on a variety of finished metals would shrink the margins of Indian stainless steel manufacturers." - article here

  Private fund to finance Madagascar mine deal - "Korea plans to launch a fund worth about 200 billion won ($212 million) in June to finance a nickel mine project in Madagascar, as it scrambles to secure supplies of the costly raw material." - article here

  Lead stays in shed as fears grow - "A $23 million pile of lead concentrate is sitting in an old shed at the Esperance port as public health fears grow over the death of thousands of birds in the south coast community." - article here

  Prosecutors confident Indonesian court to find Newmont guilty of polluting bay - "Indonesian prosecutors are confident a court will find a local subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corp. and its top official guilty of polluting a bay with toxic chemicals when judges announce their verdict next month, a prosecutor said Saturday." - article here

  Steel De-Stock Hanging Over Nickel Price Outlook - "Nickel has been a star performer among the base metals in recent months, its price spiking to more than US$20 per pound as demand from the stainless steel market has been surprisingly strong and the supply side response has been slower than anticipated." - article here (forecasts added to our forecast review page)

  Nickel Price Growth Not Worrisome Amid Price Rise For Substitutes - "MMC Norilsk Nickel thinks that the rapid growth of nickel prices is not a cause for concern, as prices are also rising for this metal's substitutes." - article here

  Thanks to one of our Aussie readers, here is a report of the nickel sector, and an extensive review of small to midcap nickel companies  - 'The Nickel Sector - Metal and Equity Report' by FD Capital - pdf here (if you invest in nickel, this is an excellent read. Thanks Bruce!)

  Cheeky thieves steal metals from unimaginable places - "The headless body of a Ukrainian poet, night-time raids on railway depots and the theft of priceless works of art. The ingredients of a Cold War thriller?" - article here

  Did we miss something on this site - Here is a report from 2003 - "3/4 - Norilsk Nickel announces its employees have agreed to extend their labor contract thru 2007." - Has anyone heard about any negotiations going on at Norilsk?

  Flashpoints - A Guide to World Conflicts - here  / Terrorism Knowledge Base - here

  3 part video - Naked Short Stock Sales - part 1  2  3

  Manufactured Landscapes - video just released - (here) (promo intro) Edward Burtynsky captures the awe inspiring expense of modern expansion - "The River of Rust" taken in Sudbury, Canada - here

  Bookmark - online news stand - check the front cover of major worldwide newspapers every day - here

  Trading in review - 3 month nickel opened Friday at $21.45/lb, hit a high of $22.00/lb (new record), a low of $20.97/lb and ended at $21.63/lb. Nickel started the week on Monday morning at $19.28/lb. The lowest of the week was $19.23/lb on Monday, and each day's highest traded price was a new record high - Monday - $20.02/lb, Tuesday - $20.29/lb, Wednesday - $20.41/lb, Thursday - $21.64/lb, Friday - $22.00/lb.  (see bottom of this page for more)

A humorous look at economics - for those always 1/2 day ahead of us Yanks - Have a nice weekend!!

  Today's official LME nickel closing - cash - $20.56/lb - 3 month buyer - $18.96/lb. The bull re-affirmed clear control of the nickel market today, and 3 month nickel ended the day at $18.82/lb ($41,500/tonne) (more) And here is some fodder for the NGO's who have been fairly quiet this week. What is "really" causing this problem is not nearly as important as a mine is suspect here and here

  Antam nickel profit rise - "PT Aneka Tambang (Antam), Indonesia`s second largest ferronickel producer, has announced that its full-year unaudited profit rose 85% on the back of higher prices for the metal." - article here

  Steel prices forecast to rise from Q2 - "Global steelmakers are likely to raise prices in the three months from April on strong Chinese prices and expectation of better inventory control in the developed markets, a research institute affiliated with POSCO said yesterday." - article here

  TD Bank Financial Group - Quarterly Commodity Report - pdf here

  A reader brought something to our attention that we missed Monday. Nickel miner Lionore released it 4th quarter earnings Monday, and in the report, the company mentions it has 5,185 tonnes of nickel it has produced but not yet sold. At $45,000 per tonne, we will let you figure out how much this stockpile of rock is worth today? (they figured its value on Monday of $73.4 million - after taxes. Nickel has gone up since.) More on the report here  company site here

  Japanese moly buyers in search of alternatives for Chinese - "Japanese molybdenum traders and consumers are in search of alternatives as China is expected to cut exports of the metal as a result of the introduction of a quota system, local sources said." - article here

  CVRD chief executive to visit Goro nickel project - "The chief executive of Brazilian mining giant CVRD will visit government officials and employees this week at its Goro nickel-mine project in the French overseas territory of New Caledonia, a development that is opposed locally." - article here

  China threatens Europe’s aluminium recyclers - "Chinese competition and its huge demand for scrap metal threaten Europe’s aluminium industry, speakers told a recycling conference in Germany." - article here

  From China Steel Newsletter - "In 2007, the least possible crude steel production in China may increase 46 million tons to as much as 466 million tons, 10% up over 2006; while the highest possible production may increase 65 million tons reaching 485 million tons, 15% up over 2006. It is forecasted in 2007 the growing rate of the demand for crude steel in China would be no higher than 10%, with the optimistic estimation being 9%, and the lowest estimation being 6%, while the respective apparent consumption would be 422 million tons and 410 million tons. Owing to the growth rate of steel production in China would be higher than that of consumption, so the net steel export quantities from China would be increased to a large extent. To realize the general balance between supply and demand, China's net crude steel export should reach 44 million tons. Judging from the above the relations between supply and demand in China's domestic steel market would be further deteriorated in 2007 with the surplus production volume to be digested by relying on export to the international market. Even though the government eliminates the export rebate the enlargement of steel export would not be able to be held back." (courtesy - China Steel) and related article here

  Indications at 7:50 am CST were nickel was selling up by $.11/lb .  At 10:21 a.m.London time, 3 month nickel hit $19.05/lb ($42,000/tonne), which set a new all time record. (more) And while we have carried numerous stories about scrap theft and people who have killed themselves trying to steal copper wiring, now people are getting killed over stolen copper. (article here)

  China shock hits global ferromoly consumers scrambling for offers - ""China shock" has hit ferromoly consumers worldwide, scrambling to obtain firm sell offers, sources in Japan and South Korea told Platts on Thursday." - article here

  Bloomberg reports Brook Hunt is forecasting a 22,000 tonne deficit in nickel production to consumption in 2007.

  Anti-mine group asks county board to oppose Kennecott - "Several citizens opposed to Kennecott Eagle Minerals’ proposed mine in the Yellow Dog Plains appeared at the Marquette County Board’s Committee of the Whole meeting Tuesday night to ask the board to reject a resolution supporting the plan." - article here

  China's import of refined nickel in January 2007 is 9,735 mt, a 54.5% increased compared to 6,300 mt imported in January 2006.

  Iron ore export duty effective immediately - "An export duty of 300 rupees per metric tonne on iron ore announced in India's budget is effective immediately, even though the financial year does not start until April, a finance ministry official said on Thursday." - article here

  (Good news for Xstrata and bad news for China) - SA to ban raw chromite exports - "South Africa's Department of Minerals and Energy planned to gazette legislation preventing South African chrome miners from exporting unbeneficiated chrome ore, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka said on Thursday." - article here

  The Brazilian model allures the usual senators - "The usual senators left to visit the mining installations of CVRD, at Brazil, presented a report/ratio at their counterparts, yesterday. What they saw over there their rained. Remain with good to transpose it, estimate they." - translated article here

  Courtesy Yieh Corp - "Yusco and Tang Eng Steel increase their stainless steel price by US$212.25 to US$242.57/mt in March owing to soaring nickel price."

  Today's beginning nickel inventory - plus 48 tons =   3,342 tonnes  (40.45% cancelled warrants)

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All prices, unless marked official closing prices, are indications only of LME traded prices and courtesy IFS. (Molybdenum prices are for molybdenum oxide, an ingredient and major price factor in 316 stainless) (all ton listings are metric tons = 2204.6 pounds ) Updated daily before 8 am CST and around 12:45 pm CST weekdays, with some weekend updates Flags courtesy flags.net (19X13) - Disclaimer